Thesis (M.Econ.)--University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 156). Also available in print.

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, 2010. / Submitted by Albânia Cézar de Melo (albania@bce.unb.br) on 2013-07-10T15:05:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2010_MarcioFranciscoSilva.pdf: 936824 bytes, checksum: 8f7aed8a5811446d6b6c8ff396845c18 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Leandro Silva Borges(leandroborges@bce.unb.br) on 2013-07-16T20:44:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2010_MarcioFranciscoSilva.pdf: 936824 bytes, checksum: 8f7aed8a5811446d6b6c8ff396845c18 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-07-16T20:44:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2010_MarcioFranciscoSilva.pdf: 936824 bytes, checksum: 8f7aed8a5811446d6b6c8ff396845c18 (MD5) / No trabalho de conclusão de mestrado tentou-se verificar se a introdução de rigidez nominal de salários aumenta a capacidade do modelo Novo-Keynesiano em explicar o comportamento observado na economia brasileira em relação ao hiato do produto, taxa de juros e taxa de inflação. Para tanto, foram calibrados os parâmetros referentes a dois modelos – com base em Galí (2008): o chamado modelo Novo-Keynesiano básico (em que há competição monopolística e rigidez nominal de preços no mercado de bens) e o modelo Novo-Keynesiano com competição imperfeita e rigidez nominal nos mercados de bens e de trabalho. Os dados utilizados compreendem o período entre 2001 e 2008, e foram obtidos por meio dos sites do Ipeadata e do Banco Central do Brasil. Após a calibração dos parâmetros referentes aos dois modelos procedeu-se à simulação dos mesmos; então, a comparação entre a variância e covariância entre as variáveis dos modelos simulados e dos dados observados fornece um teste de aderência dos dados simulados aos dados da economia real. Os resultados providos pela dissertação não foram conclusivos: embora o modelo com imperfeições no mercado de trabalho tenha uma aptidão maior para reproduzir o comportamento do hiato do produto e da taxa de juros, o mesmo não ocorre com a taxa de inflação – esta foi melhor reproduzida pelo modelo básico. ______________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT / At work completion Masters tried to verify whether the introduction of nominal wage rigidity increases the capacity of the New-Keynesian model to explain the behavior observed in the Brazilian economy in relation to the output gap, interest rate and inflation rate. Thus, we calibrated the parameters for the two models - based on Galí (2008): the New-Keynesian model called basic (where there is monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidities in the goods market) and New-Keynesian model with competition imperfect and nominal rigidities in goods and labor. The data used cover the period between 2001 and 2008, and were obtained through the websites of Ipeadata and the Central Bank of Brazil. After calibration of the parameters for the two models proceeded to the simulation of the same, so the comparison between the variance and covariance between variables of the models simulated and observed data provides a test of adherence of simulated data to data from the real economy. The results provided by the dissertation were inconclusive: while the model with imperfections in the labor market have a greater ability to reproduce the behavior of the output gap and interest rate, the same does not occur with the rate of inflation - this was best reproduced the basic model.

Memoria (licenciado en ciencias jurídicas y sociales) / Este trabajo intenta explicar las teorías económicas de John Maynard Keynes y la influencia que tuvieron, junto con su aplicación práctica, en Alemania, entre 1933 y 1938, en los Estados Unidos de América, desde 1933 y 1941 y en Chile, entre 1970 y 1973. Además, contiene el pensamiento económico de Don Pedro Aguirre Cerda en relación a la industria chilena en los años 30 y una exposición de la historia de la Corporación de Fomento a la Producción, sus logros en sus 64 años de existencia y su actual organización interna. A través del análisis de libros, trabajos universitarios y sitios web, el autor busca exponer los temas recién dichos, para luego dar su visión crítica al respecto, a la luz de las teorías económicas de Keynes, concluyendo que sólo el trabajo eficiente, organizado, cooperativo y planificado de la economía de un país en crisis le permitirá a éste, salir del problema que lo aqueja.

The thesis is dealing with currency crisis phenomenon and its explanation within the wider framework of theoretical economics. It contains an analysis of present "mainstream" understanding of the currency crisis, an outline to the approaches to its modelling and also a brief historical overwiev. This thesis uses an analysis and also an application of relevant theories of L.Mises and J.M.Keynes to achieve its main objective. Finally it comes to the integration of currency crisis into the context of general economic course of events.

The problem under investigation in this study is the determination of the usefulness of the concept of saving set forth by John M. Keynes in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, both as a method of prediction and prevention of business cycles and as a conceptual framework which is for use in explaining past economic activity, particularly economic growth. The study has a twofold purpose. The first is to evaluate the workability of the Keynesian definitions when applied to existing sources of economic data; to see if a meaningful savings aggregate is a statistical possibility. The second is to attempt to explain in terms of related parts of the rest of Keynes' theoretical system the conclusions reached under the first purpose above.

Orientador: David Dequech Filho / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T11:50:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Correa_LucianaSeabraResendeCastro_M.pdf: 2368777 bytes, checksum: 1a68646c76b525e5ebbe1ba6c67f2092 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: Este trabalho trata primeiramente, de um ponto de vista teórico, da existência de convenções nos mercados de ações e títulos de dívida. Serve de ponto de partida a noção, presente em Keynes, de que convenções envolvem técnicas para lidar com a incerteza, quando não há uma distribuição de probabilidades bem definida e confiável sobre o futuro. É apresentada também a abordagem convencionalista francesa, que oferece alternativas aos conceitos de valor fundamental das ações e taxa natural de juros. Por fim, essas referências téoricas são utilizadas para discutir a tese de que a taxa básica de juros brasileira é convencional. Busca-se desenvolver uma linha de argumentação mais bem fundamentada do que a de outros autores que defenderam essa ideia. Assim, pretende-se, por um lado, mostrar que o argumento não é trivial e, por outro, defender que efetivamente há elementos de convencionalidade na taxa básica de juros brasileira. / Abstract: This thesis examines, first, from a theoretical point of view, the existence of conventions in the stock and bond markets. Its starting point is the argument, developed by Keynes, that conventions involve techniques to deal with uncertainty, when there is no well-defined and reliable probability distribution about the future. Also considered is the French conventionalist approach, which provides alternatives to the concepts of the fundamental value of stocks and the natural rate of interest. Finally, these theoretical references are used to discuss the thesis that the Brazilian basic interest rate is conventional. An attempt is made to develop a better founded line of reasoning than the ones defended by other authors. This part of the research is intended, on the one hand, to show us that the argument is not trivial, and, on the other hand, to maintain that there are indeed elements of conventionality in the Brazilian basic rate of interest. / Mestrado / Politica Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Cette thèse a pour objectif de réhabiliter l’analyse circuitiste des crises économiques. Cellecia largement été supplantée depuis la fin des « trentes glorieuses » par la pensée néo-libérale.Pourtant les modèles, même les plus récents, émanant de cette pensée n’ont pas su ni prévenir, niguérir la crise que nous traversons. Nous considérons alors la théorie du circuit, dont Marx et Keynessont d’éminents représentants, comme bien plus capable d’appréhender la crise actuelle. Nousétablissons une dichotomie de l’analyse économique entre l’analyse du circuit et l’analyse libérale,que nous appelons également dans cette thèse « analyse de marché ». Nous montrerons comments’est construite cette analyse et comment ses hypothèses sont développées. Ce travail procèdeégalement à une analyse empirique. Nous montrerons à la lumière de la théorie du circuit lesconséquences des politiques néolibérales sur la dynamique économique. Ces politiques delibéralisation commerciale et financière devaient nous faire tendre vers l’équilibre général de pleinemploi. Elles ont pourtant, bien au contraire amené le déséquilibre généralisé de sous-emploi. Lesconclusions de cette thèse en termes de politiques économiques penchent en faveur d’unprotectionnisme raisonné et concerté à l’échelle internationale, ainsi qu’en faveur d’un contrôle dusystème financier afin que celui-ci finance l’accumulation du capital des sociétés non financières / This PhD thesis aims at rehabilitating the circuit analysis of economic crises. This analysiswas supplanted by the neo-liberal one at the end of the post-war boom. However, the neo-liberalmodels, and even the most recent ones, could not prevent nor solve the crisis that we are now goingthrough. We find the circuit theory, of which Marx and Keynes are distinguished representatives,much more capable of explaining the current crisis. We set up a dichotomy in economics betweenthe circuit analysis and the so-called liberal analysis, which we also call in this thesis the «marketanalysis». We show how this analysis and the hypotheses that stem from it were built. This work alsoincludes an empirical analysis. We use the circuit analysis to show the consequences of neo-liberalpolicies on economic dynamics. Thesefinancial and commercial liberalization policies should havelead us towards afull employment general equilibrium. On the contrary, they brought aunderemployment generalizeddisequilibrium.This thesis’ conclusions in terms of economic policiesare in favor of a concerted and reasoned protectionism on the international scale, as well as a controlof the financial system in order to fund non-financial corporations accumulation of capital.

Cette thèse a pour objectif de montrer que Marx et Keynes, par des analyses distinctes, aboutissentà une même conclusion qui conserve un sens aujourd’hui : la cause ultime de la crise résidedans l’excès de concurrence. De là suit que le protectionnisme, conçu comme une régulation des effetsde la concurrence sur l’économie nationale, est, en fin de compte, une protection contre la crise.La première partie de ce travail traite de la période allant de Ricardo à Marx. Dans un premierchapitre, est exposé le modèle de Ricardo et les critiques qui l’ont accompagné. Au nombre de sesdétracteurs figure Marx dont notre deuxième chapitre montre que la théorie peut être lue commeappelant au protectionnisme dès lors que son analyse est replacée dans un objectif de survie ducapitalisme. La seconde partie justifie l’existence et démontre le bien-fondé d’un protectionnismekeynésien. Le troisième chapitre établit la découverte, par Keynes, de la nécessité de proposer unprotectionnisme de sauvegarde et montre que cette conclusion a été largement perdue de vue dansles interprétations de sa pensée. Enfin, le quatrième chapitre, par une lecture circuitiste de Keynes,met en garde contre les effets pervers du libre-échange sur les deux composantes essentielles de lademande que sont la consommation et surtout l’investissement. / This thesis aims to show that, despite separate analyses, Marx and Keynes support a similarconclusion which preserves a meaning today : the ultimate cause of the crisis is excessive competition.It follows that protectionism as a regulation of the effects of competition on national economyis ultimately a protection against the crisis. The first part of this work covers the period fromRicardo to Marx. The first chapter outlines the Ricardo model and the criticisms who accompaniedit. Marx was part of these detractors. From a survival of capitalism perspective, the secondchapter shows that his theory can be interpreted as a call for protectionism. The second part justifiesthe existence and demonstrates the validity of Keynesian protectionism. The third chapterestablishes the Keynes’ discovery of the necessity to use protection as a guarantee against crises.This conclusion has been widely lost sight of by those who interpreted his thought. Finally chapterfour warns against the negative effects of free trade on two essential components of demand namelyconsumption and, foremost, investment. We do so using a circuitist approach.

A presente tese de doutoramento é composta de três ensaios independentes (ainda que complementares) sobre a História do Pensamento Econômico, mais especificamente, da Macroeconomia. O primeiro ensaio - \"Uma Breve História sobre a Abordagem de Desequilíbrio na Macroeconomia\" - é uma versão revista e ampliada do artigo apresentado no XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC em 2010 (Uma Breve História sobre a Abordagem de Desequilíbrio na Economia). Nossa argumentação vai de encontro às interpretações de Romer (1989) e Mankiw (2005) sobre a compreensão histórica daquele episódio, como também a hipótese levantada por Backhouse & Boianovsky (2005) sobre o fracasso da Macroeconomia do Desequilíbrio. O segundo ensaio se chama \"Uma Análise Histórica (e Retórica) do Discurso Doutrinário de Robert E. Lucas Jr.\". Se no primeiro ensaio argumentamos que parte do \"fracasso\" da Abordagem de Desequilíbrio deveu-se ao surgimento de um método entendido como superior pela maior parte dos economistas (o método de Lucas), neste investigamos o conteúdo daqueles artigos em que Lucas busca convencer os leitores da superioridade do seu método não a partir da comparação dos resultados obtidos por seu modelo em comparação a uma estrutura alternativa, mas sim com uma retórica polemista, fazendo uso de uma série de estratagemas retóricos. Nossa intenção é checar a validade de algumas de suas teses históricas e teóricas, bem como fazer um escrutínio dos expedientes retóricos utilizados pelo autor. O terceiro ensaio - \"Tese da Ancestralidade, Reinvenção da Tradição ou Superação Positiva? Uma Investigação sobre a \"Macroeconomia\" anterior a Keynes e as Causas do Sucesso da Teoria Geral\" - é derivada do segundo ensaio. Partimos da contraposição de hipóteses históricas de dois grandes autores da Macroeconomia sobre o estado da teoria \"macroeconômica\" anterior a Keynes, e as causas do sucesso da Teoria Geral. De um lado, Robert Lucas trata a Macroeconomia fundada por Keynes como um desvio na tradição equilibrista das análises de flutuação, cujo sucesso foi um \'feliz acidente histórico\', provocado principalmente por fatores alheios as vontades e até as simpatias de Keynes. De outro, Olivier Blanchard argumenta que o que havia antes de Keynes era uma grande diversidade de métodos e ausência de um aparato hegemônico, e o sucesso de Keynes deveu-se exclusivamente aos avanços teóricos e metodológicos apresentados naquela obra. / This PhD thesis contains three independent (although complementary) essays on the History of Economic Thought, more specifically on Macroeconomics History. The first essay - A Brief History of the Disequilibrium Approach in Macroeconomics - is a revised and expanded version of paper presented at the XXXVIII Meeting of ANPEC. Our argumentation challenges Romer (1989) and Mankiw (2005) interpretations about that episode. We also disagree (at some level) with Backhouse & Boianovsky (2005) hypothesis about the so-called \"failure\" of Non-Market-Clearing Approach. The second essay - A Historical (and Rhetorical) Analysis of Robert E. Lucas Junior\'s Doctrinaire Speech - is still a work in progress. If the first essay we argue that part of the \"failure\" of Disequilibrium Approach was due to the emergence of a method perceived as superior by most economists (lucasian method), here we investigate the content of those articles where Lucas seeks to persuade its readers of the superiority of his method not from the scrutiny of the results obtained by a specific model in comparison to an alternative structure, but mainly through a polemicist rhetoric. Our intention is to check the validity of some of its historical and theoretical arguments, and make a scrutiny of rhetorical expedients used by the author. The third essay - Ancestry Thesis, Reinvention of a Tradition or Cumulative Progress? A Research on \"Macroeconomics\" before Keynes and some Speculation about the causes of General Theory\'s Success\" - is derived from the second paper. We start from the juxtaposition of historical hypotheses of two great authors about the state\'s theory of \"macroeconomic\" before Keynes, and the causes of the success of the General Theory. On one hand, Robert Lucas argues that Macroeconomics as developed by Keynes was a deviation in the tradition of equilibrist fluctuation analysis, whose success was a fortunate historical accident. On the other, Olivier Blanchard argues that what was before Keynes was a great diversity of methods and the absence of a hegemonic apparatus, and the success of Keynes was due exclusively to theoretical and methodological advances made in that work.

<p>The economic policy of the Swedish Social Democrats has undergone major changes during the last thirty years. From using a so-called Keynesian policy to promote full employment in the economy, the Social Democrats have switched to a more monetaristic policy to promote low inflation instead. What I intend to do with this study is to see if the policy change also can be noticed in how the party describe their own policy. Have the Social Democrats been open and transparent with their change in priorities, or have they tried to hide this in their rhetoric?</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine if one can notice a change from a Keynesian to a monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy. The main research question, which I intend to answer, is: "Is it possible to notice a change from a Keynesian to monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy?"</p><p>I have chosen to study the descriptions found in the financial forecasts, presented by the Social Democrats during their time in government rule between 1970 and 1999. The research method I use is the qualitative text analysis.</p><p>After analyzing the descriptions found in the financial forecasts I present an answer to the main research question: Yes, it is partly possible to notice a change from a Keynesian to monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy.</p><p>I only say partly possible because it is possible to notice the policy change that took place between the 1970s and 1980s, when low inflation was given the same priority as low unemployment. Whereas it is not possible to notice the change that took place between the 1980s and 1990s, when low inflation was given the highest priority, above low unemployment.</p>