En Afrique sub-saharienne, l’insécurité foncière associée aux régimes de droits fonciers dits “coutumiers” ainsi que la sous-utilisation d’intrants modernes sont deux facteurs souvent évoqués comme limitant le potentiel agricole de l’Afrique. Sur cette base, les décideurs politiques ont pensé et mis en place des interventions visant à individualiser le droit de la terre et à promouvoir l’adoption d’intrants améliorés. Cette thèse utilise des données originales collectées en République Démocratique du Congo pour étudier deux exemples de politiques publiques s’inscrivant dans cette lignée et mises en oeuvre à 50 ans d’intervalle. Elle montre qu’elles ont eu des implications de court terme et de longterme allant bien au delà de celles qui sont généralement attendues. Les deux premiers chapitres s’intéressent à une politique mise en oeuvre durant la dernière décennie de la colonisation belge qui entraîna l’individualisation de terres communales et leur allocation à des familles individuelles. Ils utilisent une expérience naturelle pour étudier ses implications sur les structures sociales et les mécanismes coutumiers de résolution des conflits. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse à une politique récente de subvention d’intrants agricoles. En utilisant une expérience aléatoire, il montre que l’intervention a conduit à une augmentation de l’utilisation de semences améliorées, et analyse ses conséquences sur les décisions d’allocation des ressources en terre et en travail par les ménages. / Contending that tenure insecurity under informal “customary” land institutions and theunder-utilization of modern inputs are two important factors holding back sub-SaharanAfrican agriculture, policy makers have designed policies to shift communal rights towardmore individualization and formalization, and to promote the adoption of improved inputs.This doctoral thesis uses an original database to explore two examples of such policiesthat took place 50 years apart in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It shows that theyhad short-term and long-term implications far beyond those commonly expected. The firsttwo Chapters focus on an intervention by the Belgian Colony that took place during thelast decade of colonization. It led to the division of communal land and its allocation toindividual families. Using a natural experiment, they study its consequences for socialstructures and customary conflict resolution mechanisms. The third Chapter focuses on arecent agricultural input subsidies intervention. It uses an experimental design to show that the subsidies successfully increased the use of improved seeds, and analyses its implications for households’ labor and land allocation.

Despite the negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment, these remain as the primary contributors to the energy sector. In order to mitigate global warming risks, many countries aim at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Bioenergy crops are being used as a substitute for fossil fuels and short rotation forestry is a prime example. In order to examine the sustainability of energy crops for fuel, typical European short rotation forestry (SRF) biomass, willow (Salix spp.) and poplar (Populus spp.) are examined and compared to rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) in respect to various aspects of soil respiration and combustion heat obtained from the extracted products per hectare. Various approaches are used to look at an As-contaminated site not only in the field but also in a soil-column experiment that examines the fate of trace elements in SRF soils, and in an analysis using MICMAC to describe the driving factors for SRF crop production. Based on the cause-effect chain, the impacts of land-use change and occupation on ecosystem quality are assessed when land-use is changed from degraded land (grassland) to willow and poplar SRF. A manual opaque dynamic closed chamber system (SEMACH-FG) was utilized to measure CO2 emissions at a willow/poplar short rotation forest in Krummenhennersdorf, Germany during the years 2013 and 2014, and at a rapeseed site in 2014. Short rotation forest soils showed higher CO2 emission rates during the growing season than the dormant season – with a CO2 release of 5.62±1.81 m-2 s-1 for willows and 5.08±1.37 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 for poplars in the growing season. However, during the dormant season the soil sites with willow emitted 2.54±0.81 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 and with poplar 2.07±0.56 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1. The highest emission rates for the studied plantations were observed in July for both years 2013 and 2014, during which the highest air and soil temperatures were recorded. Correlations between soil emission of CO2 and some meteorological parameters and leaf characteristics were investigated for the years 2013 and 2014. For example, for the willow clone (Jorr) and poplar clone (Max 3), high correlations were found for each between their soil emission of CO2 and both soil temperature and moisture content. Fitted models can explain about 77 and 75% of the results for Jorr and Max 3 clones, respectively. Moreover, a model of leaf area (LA) can explain about 68.6% of soil CO2 emission for H275. Estimated models can be used as a gap-filling method, when field data is not available. The ratio between soil respiration and the combustion heat calculated from the extracted products per hectare was evaluated and compared for the study’s willow, poplar and rapeseed crops. The results show that poplar and willow SRF has a very low ratio of 183 kg CO2 GJ 1 compared to rapeseed, 738 kg CO2 GJ 1. The soil-column experiment showed that by continuing the SRF plantation at the As-contaminated site, remediation would need only about 3% of the time needed if the site was left as a fallow field. In order to understand the complex willow and poplar short rotation forestry production system, 50 key variables were identified and prioritized to describe the system as a step to enhance the success of such potentially sustainable projects. The MICMAC approach was used in order to find the direct and the indirect relationships between those parameters and to classify them into different clusters depending on their driving force and interdependency. From this, it can be summarized that in order to enhance the success of a SRF system, decision makers should be focussing on: ensuring a developed wood-fuel market, increasing farmers’ experience/training, improving subsidy regulations and recommending a proper harvesting year cycle. Finally, the impacts of land-use change and occupation on the ecosystem quality were assessed. Results show that establishing SRF plantations on degraded lands improved the ecosystem structural quality (ESQ) by about 43% and ecosystem functional quality (EFQ) by about 12%. Based on overall results, poplar and willow SRF biomass can be recommended as renewable and sustainable sources for bioenergy.:Table of Contents Acknowledgements VI Abstract VII List of Figures IX List of Tables XI List of Appendix Tables XII List of Abbreviations XIII List of Abbreviations ...continued XIV 1. Background 1 1.1. General introduction 1 1.2. Soil organic carbon (SOC) 2 1.3. Soil respiration 4 1.4. Energy and bioenergy crops 5 1.5. Willow and poplar short rotation forestry 8 1.6. Degraded lands 10 1.8. Challenges 17 1.9. Objectives of this study 18 2. Methodology 19 2.1. Site Description 19 2.2. Environmental variables 22 2.3. Measuring CO2 emissions 23 2.3.1. Soil emission of CO2 23 2.3.2. Sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature (Q10) 25 2.4. Willow and poplar leaf traits 26 2.4.1. Measuring leaf area 26 2.4.2. Leaf Area Index (LAI) 27 2.4.3. Leaf sensitivity to high and low temperatures 28 2.5. Soil characteristics 30 2.5.1. Soil sampling 30 2.5.2. Soil Moisture Content % (SMC) by gravimetric method 31 2.5.3. Soil pH 31 2.5.4. Soil Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) 31 2.5.5. Soil content of C, N, S, heavy metals and trace elements 31 2.5.6. Soil porosity 31 2.5.7. Soil pore water 32 2.5.8. Soil hydraulic conductivity (Kf) 32 2.6. Soil-column experiment 34 2.6.1. Experiment set-up 35 2.6.2. Distribution coefficients (Kd) 35 2.7. MICMAC approach 36 2.7.1. Selection of variables 36 2.7.2. Description of direct relationships 36 2.7.3. Classification of variables 37 2.8. Impacts of land-use change on the ecosystem quality 38 2.9. Computer software 40 3. Results and Discussion 41 3.1. Environmental conditions 41 3.1.1. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) 41 3.1.2. Soil temperature 42 3.1.3. Soil moisture content 43 3.2. Soil emission of CO2 46 3.2.1. CO2 emission from soil at the short rotation forestry site 46 3.2.2. Soil emission of CO2 during the day and the night 48 3.2.3. Cumulative emission of CO2 49 3.2.4. Comparison with other bioenergy crops 50 3.3. Q10 52 3.4. Willow and poplar Leaf Characteristics 54 3.4.1. Leaf Area Index (LAI) 54 3.4.2. Specific leaf area (SLA) 56 3.4.3. Leaf sensitivity to temperature 57 3.5. Correlations of soil CO2 emission with soil temperature and moisture content 59 3.6. Correlations of soil CO2 emission with plant parameters 65 3.7. Insights into soil respiration and combustion heat per area 67 3.7.1. Cumulative seasonal CO2 emission (CE) 68 3.7.2. Output energy 69 3.7.3. CO2(soil respiration) / Energy ratio 70 3.7.4. Global-warming potential (GWP) 72 3.8. Trace elements in soil 73 3.8.1. Solid-liquid partition coefficients (Kd) 74 3.8.2. Estimating time of remediation 78 3.9. Identification and Prioritization of Key Parameters for Willow and Poplar Short Rotation Forestry (SRF) Production System 82 3.9.1. Based on direct influence/dependence map: 85 3.9.2. Based on indirect influence/dependence map: 87 3.10. Impacts of Land-use Change on the Ecosystem Quality 93 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 101 5. References 102 Appendix 118

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.:AN INTERNATIONAL NETWORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SMALL FARMERS IN THE TROPICAL ANDES – GLOBAL CONVENTIONS FROM A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE S. 1 1. Introduction S. 2 2. The concept of an International Network on Climate Change S. 5 3. The outlook on an endogenous approach S. 9 4. References S. 12 ADAPTATION MEASURES S. 17 Adaptation strategies of Andean campesinos to cope with the climatic variability – Examples from the Mantaro Valley, Peru S. 18 A socio-economic analysis of livelihood strategies in rural forest depending communities in lowland Bolivia under a changing climate S. 20 Who knows what and why? Intra-cultural knowledge variation of agroforestry plants S. 21 Traditional ecological knowledge, resilience and food security: local strategies in three communities in the Yungas ecosystem, La Paz, Bolivia S. 22 Influence of agroforestry systems in risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Peruvian Andes S. 24 Assessing adaptation to climate change: Environmental and socio-economic changes in the Andes of Bolivia S. 26 Adaptive capacity of rural communities to climate change in the bio-cultural system of the Andes, Bolivia S. 28 Socio-economic analysis of farm-forestry systems: Case studies from Achamayo and Palcazu watersheds, Peruvian Andes S. 29 MONITORING AND MODELING LAND USE CHANGE S.33 Modeling and forecast of changes in land-use and land-cover caused by climate change in the Peruvian Andes S. 34 Land-use and land-cover change in Cotapata National Park – Natural integrated management area, Bolivia S. 37 Monitoring and analyzing land-use / land-cover changes using remote sensing and GIS in the Achamayo and Shullcas region, Peruvian Andes S. 39 Climate change and land-use in the Bolivian Andes S. 41 Modeling the adaptation strategies of farmers of the Andes against climate change and the related development of land-use / land-cover S. 43 MANAGEMENT OF A CHANGING LANDSCAPE S. 45 Evaluating the strategies for the management of biophysical resources in farm communities of the Mantaro Valley, Central Andes of Peru S. 46 Participative planning, monitoring and evaluation system in bio-cultural local communities S. 50 The monitoring program in Apolobamba protected area S. 51 Progress in the diagnosis of biodiversity vulnerability to climate change in Bolivia S. 52 Sectoral program of adaptation to climate change of biodiversity and ecosystems S. 53 DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE S. 55 Possible interactions between climate projections and deforestation scenarios in Bolivia S. 56 Transport and possible climate impacts of aerosols from biomass burning from the Amazon to the Bolivian Andes S. 56 Transboundary air pollution in southern Amazon of Peru S. 57 SUMMARY S. 59 Challenges presented by climate change in the Andean region: Land-use cover change and adaptive response of small farmers S. 60 List of participants and additional information S. 62

Long-term evolution of nature-society interactions can be studied by using data of land use change. In the thesis is used a detailed statistical database of Czechia (developed at Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science). The database allows monitoring changes of eight categories of land use in the period 1845-2000. Attention is devoted to the growing differentiation of land use at different scale levels, the thesis is concentrated on functional specialization of czech regions. Deepening division of labour between regions is reflected by increasing territorial concentration of land use. This process is monitored by using three methods. Ternary plots present an overview of the differentiation trends of land use. Spatial autocorrelation methods present the general development and specific areas of functional specialization in Czechia. A review by territorial heterogeneity rate provides a detailed look at the change of territorial concentration of land use. The thesis operates with three territorial classifications (hydrological, geomorphological and administrative) at two regional levels and the level of Czechia. Results are interpreted using the driving forces (such as technological development, economics, historical events, society). The final part of the thesis compares the development of...

[EN] In the last decade, there has been an increase in demand for biofuels, fostered by public policies. In the European Union, Directive 2009/28/EC (RED) establishes a 10% target for renewable energy use in the transport sector by 2020, in order to reduce overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In view of the land use change (LUC) that has recently occurred on a global scale as a consequence of bioenergy expansion, environmental considerations are more frequently incorporated into biofuel policies in order to promote only those biofuels delivering substantial GHG savings. The aim of the present thesis has been to analyze the environmental effects of the introduction of biodiesel for transport in the context of Spain, by applying different methodologies under a life cycle perspective, in order to address controversial issues, such as indirect LUC. First of all, the environmental and economic benefits brought about by an integrated process for waste management have been analyzed; biodiesel is obtained from the treatment of used cooking oil (UCO). The evaluation of the environmental performance has been carried out by means of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, while the financial assessment has been performed by applying a Life Cycle Costing (LCC). Both methodologies are based on a holistic approach and are crucial for a more thorough understanding of the sustainability of the proposed system. The combined study shows that the process has the potential to cause significant environmental benefits (subject to methodological assumptions), but this comes at the expense of the profits generated when the analysis is carried out from a municipal point of view. LCA has been subsequently applied to different systems for biodiesel production under a consequential approach, as the only way to measure indirect effects. There are different methodologies to carry out a consequential LCA, and all of them require the application of economic concepts. The first one consists of performing system expansion in order to include the additional functions provided by the co-products, since indirect effects arise from co-product interactions with other life cycles in the international market. This has allowed for the biodiesel domestically produced from UCO to be compared with the soybean biodiesel imported from Argentina. Furthermore, a mathematical programming model has been proposed based on the biodiesel sector's nameplate capacity in Spain. Its aim is to determine the optimal feedstock mix according to economic criteria, in order to meet the target demand for 2020; the biodiesel resulting from the mix must also fulfill the environmental requirements in the RED. The model allows for an LCA to be simultaneously carried out, in order to calculate the emissions associated with each production pathway. Indirect emissions from LUC in the Spanish agriculture can also be estimated. Finally, a general equilibrium model has been used to analyze the global environmental consequences, in terms of GHG emissions and LUC, of increasing the demand for biodiesel in the EU to meet the RED targets, in combination with recent anti-dumping measures on biodiesel imports from some specific countries. The outcomes from these studies have allowed for emission factors to be determined for different biodiesel production pathways in the Spanish market. Not only global warming has been taken into account but also other impact categories, which may be equally critical. In addition, pros and cons of the methodologies applied have been identified, depending on the goal and scope of the study; they should be applied in a complementary manner for a better understanding of the global phenomenon of bioenergy, increasing the confidence in GHG emission results. Reducing uncertainty in LUC estimates is crucial to enhance the applicability of future biofuel policies. / [ES] La demanda de biocombustibles ha aumentado progresivamente en los últimos años, fomentada por políticas públicas. En la Unión Europea, la Directiva 2009/28/EC (RED) establece un objetivo del 10% para el uso de energías renovables en el sector del transporte en 2020, con tal de reducir los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI). Ante la evidencia del cambio en el uso del suelo (CUS) a escala global a consecuencia del auge de los biocombustibles, se han incorporado consideraciones ambientales para promover únicamente aquellos biocarburantes que causen un ahorro sustancial de GEI. El objetivo de la presente tesis ha sido analizar los efectos ambientales de la introducción de biodiesel en el contexto español, aplicando distintas metodologías bajo una perspectiva del ciclo de vida, con el fin de abordar cuestiones controvertidas como el CUS indirecto. En primer lugar, se han evaluado los beneficios ambientales y económicos derivados de un proceso integrado de tratamiento de residuos donde se produce biodiesel a partir de aceite de cocina usado (ACU). La evaluación ambiental se ha realizado mediante la metodología de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV), mientras que la evaluación financiera se ha llevado a cabo mediante el cálculo del Coste del Ciclo de Vida. Ambas metodologías comparten el mismo enfoque holístico y son esenciales para una comprensión más completa de la sostenibilidad del sistema propuesto. El análisis combinado revela que, si bien éste presenta el potencial de generar importantes beneficios ambientales (sujeto a supuestos metodológicos), esto ocurre a costa del beneficio económico cuando el análisis se hace desde el punto de vista municipal. A continuación, se ha aplicado el ACV a distintos sistemas de producción de biodiesel bajo un enfoque consecuencial, como la única forma de estimar el CUS indirecto. Existen diferentes metodologías para la realización de un ACV consecuencial y todas ellas requieren la aplicación de conceptos económicos. La primera consiste en aplicar la expansión del sistema para incluir las funciones adicionales desempeñadas por los coproductos, ya que los efectos indirectos surgen de las interacciones de éstos con otros ciclos de vida en el mercado internacional. Ello ha permitido comparar la producción de biodiesel de ACU frente a la importación de biodiesel de soja de Argentina. Se ha propuesto también un modelo de programación matemática basado en la capacidad nominal del sector del biodiesel en España. Su objetivo es determinar la combinación de materias primas óptima, desde el punto de vista económico, para cumplir con de la demanda proyectada para 2020 pero que cumpla a su vez con las exigencias ambientales de la RED. El modelo incorpora un módulo para realizar un ACV de forma simultánea, que permite estimar las emisiones asociadas a las distintas vías de obtención de materias primas. Se pueden calcular incluso las emisiones indirectas por CUS en la agricultura española. Finalmente, se ha aplicado un modelo de equilibrio general para el análisis de las consecuencias ambientales globales (en términos de emisiones de GEI y CUS) de un aumento en la demanda de biodiesel en la UE según la RED, en combinación con las recientes medidas arancelarias sobre las importaciones de determinados países. Todo ello ha permitido calcular factores de emisión para diferentes alternativas de producción de biodiesel destinado al mercado español, no sólo en relación al calentamiento global sino también a otras categorías de impacto que pueden ser igualmente críticas. Además, se han identificado ventajas e inconvenientes de las metodologías aplicadas, dependiendo del objetivo y el alcance de estudio; lo ideal es aplicarlas de forma complementaria para una mayor comprensión del fenómeno global de la bioenergía, contribuyendo a una mayor solidez en los resultados de GEI. Reducir la incertidumbre en las estimaciones de CUS es fundamental para asegurar la a / [CAT] La demanda de biocombustibles ha augmentat progressivament els darrers anys, fomentada per polítiques públiques. En la Unió Europea, la Directiva 2009/28/EC (RED) estableix un objectiu del 10% per a l'ús d'energies renovables en el sector del transport en 2020, amb l'objectiu de reduir els gasos d'efecte hivernacle (GEH). Davant l'evidència del canvi en l'ús del sòl (CUS) a escala global a conseqüència de l'auge dels biocombustibles, s'han incorporat consideracions ambientals per promoure únicament aquells biocarburants que causen un estalvi substancial de GEH. L'objectiu de la present tesi ha estat analitzar els efectes ambientals de la introducció de biodièsel en el context espanyol, mitjançant l'aplicació de diferents metodologies sota una perspectiva del cicle de vida, amb la finalitat d'abordar qüestions tan controvertides com el CUS indirecte. En primer lloc, s'han avaluat els beneficis ambientals i econòmics derivats d'un procés integrat de tractament de residus on es produeix biodièsel a partir d'oli de cuina usat (OCU). L'avaluació ambiental s'ha realitzat mitjançant la metodologia d'Anàlisi de Cicle de Vida (ACV), mentre que l'avaluació financera s'ha dut a terme mitjançant el càlcul del Cost del Cicle de Vida. Ambdues metodologies comparteixen el mateix enfocament holístic i són essencials per a una comprensió més completa de la sostenibilitat del sistema proposat. L'anàlisi combinada revela que, si bé aquest presenta el potencial de generar importants beneficis ambientals (subjecte a supòsits metodològics), això ocorre a costa del benefici econòmic quan l'anàlisi es fa des del punt de vista municipal. A continuació, s'ha aplicat l'ACV a diferents sistemes de producció de biodièsel sota un enfocament conseqüencial, com l'única forma d'estimar el CUS indirecte. Existeixen diferents metodologies per a la realització d'un ACV conseqüencial i totes elles requereixen l'aplicació de conceptes econòmics. La primera consisteix a aplicar l'expansió del sistema per incloure les funcions addicionals exercides pels coproductes, ja que els efectes indirectes sorgeixen de les interaccions d'aquests amb altres cicles de vida al mercat internacional. Això ha permès comparar la producció de biodièsel d'OCU amb la importació de biodièsel de soia de l'Argentina. S'ha proposat també un model de programació matemàtica basat en la capacitat nominal del sector del biodièsel a Espanya. El seu objectiu és determinar la combinació òptima de matèries primeres, des del punt de vista econòmic, per complir amb de la demanda projectada per 2020 però que complisca al seu torn amb les exigències ambientals de la RED. El model incorpora un mòdul per realitzar un ACV de forma simultània, el qual permet estimar les emissions associades a les diferents vies d'obtenció de matèries primeres. Es poden calcular fins i tot les emissions indirectes per CUS en l'agricultura espanyola. Finalment, s'ha aplicat un model d'equilibri general per a l'anàlisi de les conseqüències ambientals globals (en termes d'emissions de GEH i CUS) d'un augment en la demanda de biodièsel en la UE segons la RED, en combinació amb les mesures aranzelàries recents sobre les importacions des de determinats països. Tot això ha permès calcular factors d'emissió per a diferents alternatives de producció de biodièsel destinat al mercat espanyol, no només en relació a l'escalfament global sinó també a altres categories d'impacte que poden ser igualment crítiques. A més, s'han identificat avantatges i inconvenients de les metodologies aplicades, depenent de l'objectiu i l'abast d'estudi; l'ideal és aplicar-les de forma complementària per a una major comprensió del fenomen global de la bioenergia, per contribuir a una major solidesa en els resultats de GEH. Reduir la incertesa en les estimacions de CUS és fonamental per assegurar l'aplicabilitat de les polítiques de biocombustibles en el futur. / Escobar Lanzuela, N. (2015). Contribution to the environmental impact assessment of biodiesel in the context of Spain [Tesis doctoral]. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/52027 / TESIS

Doctoral thesis abstract Assessment of climate change impacts on selected ecosystem services in the Czech Republic: Application of land use scenarios MSc Eliška Lorencová Climate and land use change are recognized as the greatest global environmental problems. Both considerably impact delivery of crucial ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, water flow regulation, erosion control, and food and fibre production. By combining future projections of ALARM scenarios (for years 2020, 2050 and 2080) with modelling of ecosystem services, the study aims to evaluate climate change impact on selected ecosystem services (carbon storage and sequestration, erosion control and sediment retention) in the Czech Republic. This study provides quantitative as well as spatially explicit analysis of the impacts on selected ecosystem services in the Czech Republic. Performed ecosystem service assessment indicates that spatial distribution of provision of ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and sequestration, sediment retention reflects the projected future land use changes. In case of carbon sequestration, SEDG scenario shows the lowest carbon sequestration rates accounting for 37,029.6 Gg C within the period 2000-2080. Stable vegetation cover is one of the factors that play important role in amount of sediment...

Um das 1,5°C Ziel zu verhindern, müssen bis 2020 die globalen anthropogenen CO2 Emissionen Sektor-übergreifend ihren Spitzenwert erreichen und bis 2050 auf Netto-Null-Emissionen sinken. Der AFOLU Sektor hat einen Anteil von 23% an den globalen Treibhausgasemissionen (THGE). Neben der Möglichkeit THGE zu vermeiden, bietet die Implementierung von Klimaschutzmitigation auch Synergien um die Ernährungssicherheit, Nährstoff- und Wassereffizienz zu verbessern sowie Landdegradation umzukehren. Eine kritische Bedeutung hat die Abholzung von tropischen Waldflächen durch die mehr als ein Drittel der Emissionen im Bereich des AFOLU entsteht. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden vorliegend, mit Fokus auf die Abholzung in der tropischen Zone, die indirekten Auslöser der THGE innerhalb des AFOLU untersucht. Diese Auslöser werden zunächst auf einer globalen Skala analysiert, wobei die Rolle der Variabilität von Preisveränderungen international gehandelter Waren und weiterer sozio-ökonomischer Indikatoren auf regionale Waldumwandlungsprozesse betrachtet wird. Anschließend analysiert diese Arbeit den Aspekt des Waldverlustes im Zusammenhang mit politischer Instabilität und bewaffneten Konflikten. Zudem werden regionale Lösungen zur Mitigation in weiteren Sektoren adressiert. Insbesondere wird die Möglichkeit zur THGE-Einsparung in silvopastoralen Systemen untersucht um das Zusammenspiel zwischen intensiver Viehbewirtschaftung und der Kohlenstofffixierung besser zu verstehen. Darüber hinaus werden regionale Lösungen mit Hilfe von Basisorganisationen bzw. gemeindebasierten Initiativen (CBI) zur THGE-Einsparung in den Bereichen Energie, Nahrungsmittel, Transport und Abfall erforscht. Diese Arbeit liefert vielfältige Beiträge zum Verständnis der indirekten Auslöser von Abholzung und den damit verbundenen THGE innerhalb der tropischen Zone, sowie zur Förderung lokaler Lösungen für die sektorübergreifende THG-Minderung. / Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from different sectors must peak in 2020 and reach net zero by 2050 in order to reach the 1.5°C target. The AFOLU sector represents 23% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition to its mitigation potential, the implementation of solutions in this sector also holds the synergistic potential of enhancing climate change adaptation, improving food security, nutrient and water efficiency, and reverting land degradation. Tropical deforestation is of particular importance within the AFOLU sector, representing over a third of its emissions. Against this backdrop, this thesis examines the underlying drivers of GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector, with a particular emphasis on tropical deforestation. These drivers are explored, firstly, at a global scale by addressing the role that changes in price of internationally-traded commodity products and other socio-economic variables exert on regional forest conversion. Secondly, this work examines the relationship between tree cover loss and a very under-researched driver of tropical deforestation, namely extreme political instability and armed conflict. Motivated by the urgency of climate change impacts, this thesis also explores local solutions for climate change mitigation across different sectors. In particular, the GHG mitigation role of silvopastoral systems, a type of agroforestry system, is examined to further understand the interplay between livestock intensification and carbon sequestration. In addition, more broad, local-scale solutions are examined across the energy, food, transport, and waste sectors by addressing the GHG mitigation potential of grassroots organizations, also known as community-based initiatives (CBIs). This thesis provides manifold contributions, not only to further understand some of the underlying drivers of deforestation and associated GHG emissions in the tropics, but also towards the advancement of local solutions for GHG mitigation across sectors.

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The increasing demand for food and fiber, the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as for environmental protection impose severe challenges on land systems worldwide. Solutions to support the transformation towards a sustainable development of land systems are needed. One response to the multiple challenges is the introduction of policy options aimed at steering land use activities towards a bundle of societal goals. However, it is difficult to empirically foresee the effectiveness and unintended consequences of policy options prior to their deployment. A second response is environmental education because human consumption behavior, among other factors, strongly influences natural ecosystems. However, it is a non-trivial task to develop effective communication strategies for complex topics such as sustainable land management. In both cases, modeling can help to overcome the different obstacles along the way. In this thesis, dynamic process-based social-ecological models at the individual scale are developed and analyzed to study effectiveness and unintended side effects of policy options, which promote agricultural management strategies and were intentionally designed to cope with multiple societal challenges. Two case studies of political intervention are investigated: the promotion of perennial woody crops in European agricultural landscapes for a sustainable bioeconomy and governmental supplementary feeding programs to cope with climate risks in pastoral systems in drylands. These two case studies are complemented by the development of a serious online game on sustainable land management in general that bridges the gap between land use modeling and environmental education. Simulation results of this thesis provide insights into (i) the performance of the politically promoted agricultural management strategies in meeting various intended goals such as poverty alleviation or the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services, (ii) the emergence of unintended (environmental and social) side effects such as land use conflicts, land degradation or cost explosion and (iii) the mitigation of such side effects by appropriately adjusting the design of the policy options. These insights are enabled by representing temporal as well as spatial variability in the developed models. Furthermore, different mechanistic approaches of transferability analyses based on stylized landscapes are developed and applied. They enable to check whether and in what respect policy impacts actually differ substantially between regional contexts, to identify what regional factors steer the impact and to derive indicators for grouping regions of similar policy impacts. Finally, based on a conducted survey-based evaluation and experiences from various applications, the value of the developed serious game for environmental education is revealed and discussed.Altogether, this thesis contributes to model-based decision support for steering transformation towards the sustainable development of land systems in an appropriate way. This is done by developing appropriate social-ecological modeling approaches, by performing specific policy impact analyses in two transformative agricultural systems using these models and by providing a model-based communication tool for environmental education.

Die Arbeit liefert ein umfassendes Verständnis der (1) Auswirkungen auf Landnutzung und Treibhausgas (THG)-emissionen im Zusammenhang mit der deutschen Milchproduktion im Zeitraum von 2000 bis 2015 und bis 2030, (2) Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich der Bewertung der THG-emissionen der Milchproduktion und (3) Bewertung der Anwendbarkeit des zugrundeliegenden Modells für andere Länder als Deutschland. Landnutzung stellt die Anbaufläche von Futter für bestimmte Milchleistungen dar. Die Arbeit konzentrierte sich auf die Landnutzungsänderung zwischen Grün- und Ackerland durch Änderung der Milchkuhrationen. Ein Ökobilanz-Modell wurde entwickelt, um die Auswirkungen der Entwicklung der deutschen Milchproduktion und -leistung (typische Rationen unter deutschen Bedingungen) bis 2030 für drei Weidesysteme (ohne Weide, Halbtags- und Ganztagsweide) zu simulieren. THG-emissionen wurden für die gesamte Produktionskette berechnet, beginnend mit dem Pflanzenbau. Eingangsdaten für Ökobilanz-Studien von Lebensmitteln werden von Variabilität und Unsicherheiten beeinflusst. Ein systematischer Ansatz (Kombination aus lokaler und globaler Sensitivitätsanalyse) wurde verwendet, um wesentliche Eingangsparameter für die Bewertung der THG-emissionen der Milchproduktion zu identifizieren. Zu diesem Zweck wurden drei Rationen, welche die Weidesysteme im Jahr 2030 repräsentieren, ausgewählt. Die lokale Sensitivitätsanalyse diente der Identifikation der einflussreichsten Parameter, die globale der Identifikation der wichtigsten Parameter. Die USA dienen der Prüfung der Anwendbarkeit des Modells für andere Länder. Produktionssystem, verfügbare Daten und IPCC Tier-Methoden werden mit dem deutschen System und zugehörigen Daten verglichen. Diese Arbeit liefert wichtige Erkenntnisse zur künftigen Intensivierung der Milchproduktion sowie zu Klimaschutzpotenzialen in Abhängigkeit der Fütterungsstrategie. Darüber hinaus trägt sie zur Verringerung der Unsicherheiten künftiger Studien zur Milchproduktion bei. / This thesis provides an comprehensive understanding of: (1) impacts on land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the German milk production in the period from 2000 to 2015 and further until 2030, (2) uncertainties with regard to the assessment of GHG emissions of milk production and (3) evaluation of applicability of the underlying life cycle assessment (LCA) model for countries other than Germany. Land use represents the acreage needed to provide sufficient feed for certain milk yields. This research focusses on land use change between grassland and cropland as an effect of changing dairy cow diets. A LCA model, which reflects typical dairy cow diets under German conditions, was developed to simulate the impact of the German development of milk production and yield until 2030 for three grazing systems (zero-, restricted and unrestricted grazing). GHG emissions have been calculated for the whole production chain, beginning with crops cultivation. Input parameter of LCA studies of food products are affected by variability and uncertainty. A systematic approach (combining local and global sensitivity analysis) was used to identify essential input parameters for the assessment of GHG emissions of milk production. Three diets representing the grazing systems in the year 2030 were selected for this purpose. Local sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most influential parameters, global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the parameters which are most important. The United States of America are taken as example to verify the applicability of the LCA model for other countries. Production system, available data, and IPCC tier methods were compared with the German system and data. This thesis provides important insights on future intensification of milk production along with climate change mitigation potentials depending on the feeding strategy. Moreover, it contributes to the reduction of uncertainties of future LCA studies of milk production.