La végétation herbacée est un bon indicateur des conditions environnementales, et elle a pour cela été utilisée pour la mise en évidence des changements environnementaux causés par les actions humaines, tels qu'eutrophisation, dépôts atmosphériques acides, changements de l’usage des sols ou de la pression d'herbivorie. Depuis peu, on s’intéresse à la réponse de la végétation aux changements climatiques. Le choix des zones d'étude se porte naturellement sur la montagne, où le gradient thermique induit par le relief y est fort (-0,56°C pour 100 mètres d'altitude), et où l'urbanisation et la pression agricole sont moindres par rapport aux zones de plaine, favorisant ainsi une réponse migratoire des espèces précoce et non biaisée. Afin de s'affranchir des effets potentiels des changements d'usage du sol, une partie de cette thèse est consacrée aux milieux forestiers dans lesquels l'effet du pastoralisme est réduit. Par ailleurs, une méthode basée sur la modélisation des changements de la réponse de la végétation au gradient d'altitude est développée, permettant ainsi d'étendre l'utilisation de données anciennes à des séries de relevés non géolocalisés. En s'appuyant sur cette méthode, deux caractéristiques de la végétation ont été analysées : la position de l'optimum d'espèces prises individuellement d'une part, et les changements de la valeur indicatrice des communautés végétales d'autre part. Par ailleurs, on a étudié les déplacements à long terme de la limite inférieure des espèces, pour tester la réponse des espèces en limite inférieure de leur distribution. Enfin, on a étudié l'évolution de la flore d'une zone très localisée, protégée par une large barrière physique constituée de deux glaciers permettant de s'affranchir des effets potentiels d'autres perturbations anthropiques concomitantes. Chacun des cas étudiés montre une remontée des espèces en altitude. Cependant, d'autres phénomènes expliquant la réponse de la végétation sont clairement mis en cause : fermeture et maturation du couvert forestier, eutrophisation importante, probable fragmentation de l'habitat ou dispersion par les randonneurs. Ces perturbations anthropiques directes jouent à des échelles de temps et d'espace comparables à l'effet anthropique indirect du changement climatique. Il est donc primordial de les prendre en compte dans les changements de végétation observés, avant de conclure à un effet du réchauffement climatique seul / Herbaceous vegetation is a good bio-indicator of environmental conditions, and was often used to detect and to put in evidence environmental changes caused by anthropogenic activities, like eutrophication, acid atmospheric deposit, land-use change and herbivory pressure. More recently, the interest had focused on the response of vegetation to climatic change. Mountains were naturally chosen as study areas, since the thermal gradient induced by the relief is strong (-0.56°C for 100m a.s.l.) and urbanisation and agricultural pressure are weaker than in lowlands, thus promoting early and unbiased migratory response of species. To free oneself from potential effects of land use change, a part of this PhD is devoted to mountain forest habitat, where pastoralism effects are reduced. Moreover, a method is developed, based on the modelling of changes in vegetation response to elevation gradient, allowing extending the use of historical data to non-geolocalized dataset. With this method, two characteristics of vegetation were analysed: the optimum position of individual species on the one hand, and changes in the indicator value of plant communities on the other. Furthermore, the long-term shift of species’ lower limit is studied, to test the species response at their lower limit. The last part focuses on changes in the flora of a really localised area, protected by a broad physical barrier formed by two glaciers, allowing to free from potential effects of other parallel anthropogenic disturbances. Every studied case shows a shift of species toward higher elevations. However, other phenomena explaining vegetation response became also evident in our study: forest closure and maturation, important eutrophication, probable habitat fragmentation and dispersal by hikers. Those direct anthropogenic disturbances play a role comparable in space and time to the indirect anthropogenic impact of climate change. Thus, it is essential to consider them in the observation of vegetation changes, before assigning the effects to climate warming only

Transformações nas condições de vida da Terra fazem parte da nossa história evolutiva. Atualmente, as ações humanas provocam impactos tão intensos que já se considera que estamos marcando uma nova era geológica, o Antropoceno. As alterações globais de origem antropogênica estão relacionadas ao nosso modo de vida moderno e modelo de consumo, assim como ao crescimento demográfico, econômico, agropecuário, industrial que tem demanda crescente por recursos. Todos esses fatores apresentam potenciais efeitos comprometedores às funções ecossistêmicas e dos bens e serviços ambientais. Neste contexto, os sistemas aquáticos continentais, são significativamente impactados pela construção de barragens. As represas envolvem inúmeras transformações ambientais e ecológicas, sociais e econômicas. Já as regiões do seu entorno podem ser beneficiadas com a utilização das águas represadas. Entender a dinâmica da cobertura e uso do solo e analisar se há a abertura de oportunidade para o desenvolvimento de novas atividades econômicas, aproximam a compreensão dos seus impactos como base para a gestão desses ambientes. O objetivo geral desse trabalho foi analisar a influência das Usinas Hidrelétricas Canoas I e II nos municípios do seu entorno, a partir da analise espaço-temporal das mudanças no uso e cobertura do solo e das dinâmicas socioeconômicas relacionadas ao desenvolvimento das atividades de piscicultura. Os resultados obtidos caracterizam as atividades agropastoris da região como a maior força das dinâmicas ambientais e socioeconômicas. A extrema fragmentação da vegetação nativa é a mais importante consequência ecológica desse processo. Já em termos sociais e econômicos às mudanças no perfil da agricultura geraram a urbanização e o exôdo rural, marginalizando pequenos agricultores. A construção dos barramentos de Canoas I e II teve influência na composição da paisagem após a perda, principalmente de terras agrícolas e coincidiu com o aumento das áreas de urbanização, associada a um aumento da área dos fragmentos da cobertura vegetal nativa e um melhora no índice de proximidade, indicando maior conexão entre os mesmos. Para os entrevistados na pesquisa os reservatórios representam uma oportunidade de desenvolvimento da piscicultura, que já desperta interesse na população como a atividade econômica. Mas, há dificuldades a serem superadas para que se concretizem as expectativas de aproveitamento das águas represadas. / Transformations in Earth life conditions are part of our evolutionary history. Currently human activities result in impacts of such magnitude that it has been proposed and widely accepted that we are entering a new geologic era, the Anthropocene. Human induced global changes are related to our modern way of life and the consumption model, as well as to demographic, economic, agricultural and industrial growth, that have an increasing resources demand. All these factors have potential compromising effects on ecosystems functions and good and services that they provide. Furthermore, fresh water ecosystems are highly impacted by river dams. These impoundments involve innumerous environmental and ecological, social and economic transformations, while surrounding areas can benefit from its water use. Understand the land use and cover dynamic and analyze if there are opportunities for new economic activities level the comprehension of their impacts for further environmental management. The overall objective of this study was to analyze the Hydroelectric Power Canoas I and II influence on the watershed counties, by a couple analysis of the spatial and temporal land use changes and the related socio-economic dynamic related to fish farming activities development. Our results show that agriculture and cattle ragging are the main driver of environmental and socio-economic behavior. An extreme native vegetation fragmentation was the most important ecological consequence of this process. In term of social and economic aspects, changes in the agricultural profile lead to an urbanization and rural exodus, marginalizing small framers. The constructions of Canoas I and II dams resulted in losses of agricultural lands, which was associated with an urban sprawl and an area increase of native vegetation patches and proximity index, indicating that they became more connected. For the interviewed local people. The dams represent an opportunity for fish farm developing, since it arouses interest in the population as an economic activity. However, there are difficulties to be overcame to meet the expectation of the impounded waters use.

In spite tropical forests are the most important terrestrial global carbon sinks due to carbon storage in aboveground biomass, it is also the primary target of deforestation. The conversion of Tropical forests into anthropogenic areas might disrupt biological flux and also lead to severe microclimatic changes at forest edges. These combined effects can trigger profound changes in plant composition through both high mortality of fragmentation-sensitive species and proliferation of disturbed-adapted species which will ultimately impacts carbon storage. Thus, our main objective in this study was understand the role of human-induced disturbances in modulate the dimension of biomass loss at tropical forests. We applied a systematic literature review searching for empirical evidences that edge effects can drive biomass loss in tropical forests (Chapter 2). Our findings highlighted the gap of knowledge about the pattern and process related to biomass loss in tropical forests. To strengthen this understanding, we formulated a conceptual model linking landscape structure and patch-level attributes to severity of edge effects affecting aboveground biomass. Our model hypothesizes that habitat amount, isolation, time since edge creation, and the synergism between edge distance, patch size, and matrix type are the main drivers of biomass loss in anthropogenic tropical forests. We thus used a large plant dataset (18 503 trees ≥ 10 cm dbh) from 146 sites distributed across four Mexican and four Brazilian rainforest regions to test our conceptual model predictions, specifically the influence of forest cover, site isolation, edge distance, patch size and type of matrix on biomass (Chapter 3). We observed that carbon-rich sites presented species that are typical of old-growth forests (shade-tolerant, large-seeded, zoocoric) contrasting to carbon-poor sites composed by disturbed-adapted species (pioneer occupying the understory). Large shade-tolerant trees (≥ 40 cm dbh) were impacted severely by the combination of forest loss and edge effects. Edge distance, patch size, and the amount of open-matrix strongly influence small shade-tolerant trees (≤ 20 cm dbh). Although our results do not fully corroborate the initial predictions of the conceptual model, they support the idea that landscape composition interact with patch structure and ultimately impacts biomass stocks in fragmented tropical forests. Finally, we further investigated if the disturbance level of the region influences plant-structure responses to forest loss (Chapter 4). Biomass, but not plant density, was affected by forest loss in regions with intermediate disturbance levels, i.e. regions showing a combination of moderate deforestation (20-40% of remaining forest cover) disturbed during the past 30-60 years, high defaunation but harboring relictual populations of large-mammals, and areas mostly composed by heterogeneous matrices. In general, our findings highlight that both landscape composition and patch structure are the main drivers of biomass loss in Neotropical forests, and that the landscape context must be considered to obtain more reliable estimations of carbon emissions due to forest degradation. Landscape planning (e.g. restoration of forest cover) should be included in conservation strategies in order to sustain carbon storage. Moreover, we advocate that conservation initiatives will be less costly and more effective if implemented in areas under intermediate disturbance levels / Apesar das florestas tropicais serem a mais importante fonte mundial de carbono da porção terrestre do globo devido ao armazenamento de carbono na biomassa acima do solo, elas são também o alvo primário do desmatamento. A conversão das florestas Tropicais em áreas antropogênicas pode interromper o fluxo biológico e também levar a severas mudanças microclimáticas na borda dos fragmentos. A combinação desses efeitos pode engatilhar profundas mudanças na composição da vegetação através tanto da mortalidade de espécies sensíveis à fragmentação como também pela proliferação de espécies adaptadas distúrbios, com impactos finais nos estoques de carbono. Assim, o maior objetivo desse estudo foi compreender o papel dos distúrbios induzidos pelo homem na modulação da dimensão da perda de biomassa em florestas Tropicais. Nós aplicamos uma revisão sistemática da literatura procurando por evidências empíricas de que o efeito de borda pode levar a perda de biomassa em florestas tropicais (Capítulo 2). Nossos resultados destacam a lacuna de conhecimento entre padrões e processos relacionados à perda de biomassa em florestas Tropicais. Para fortalecer esse conhecimento, nós formulamos um modelo conceitual conectando estrutura da paisagem e atributos na escala do fragmento à severidade do efeito de borda, e assim afetando a biomassa acima do solo. Nosso modelo hipotetiza que a quantidade de hábitat, o isolamento, o tempo desde a formação da borda e o sinergismo entre tamanho do fragmento, distância da borda e tipo de matriz são os principais condutores de perda de biomassa em florestas Tropicais antropogênicas. Utilizando um grande banco de dados (18 503 árvores ≥ 10 cm dap) provenientes de 146 locais distribuídos em quatro regiões de floresta úmida no México e quatro no Brasil, nós então testamos as predições do nosso modelo conceitual. Especificamente, a influência da cobertura florestal, isolamento, distância da borda, tamanho do fragmento e tipo de matriz sobre a biomassa (Capítulo 3). Nós observamos que áreas com muito carbono apresentaram espécies típicas de florestas maduras (tolerantes ao sombreamento, zoocóricas, com sementes grandes) contrastando com áreas com pouco carbono compostas por espécies adaptadas à distúrbio (pioneiras ocupando o sub-bosque). Árvores grandes tolerantes ao sombreamento (≥ 40 cm dap) foram impactadas severamente pela combinação de perda de cobertura florestal e efeitos de borda. Distância da borda, tamanho do fragmento e a extensão da área de matriz aberta influenciaram fortemente as árvores pequenas tolerantes a sombreamento (≤ 20 cm dap). Apesar dos nossos resultados não corroborarem completamente as predições iniciais do nosso modelo conceitual, eles dão suporte à ideia de que a composição da paisagem interage com a estrutura do fragmento com impactos finais nos estoques de biomassa em florestas Neotropicais. Por fim, nós investigamos se o nível de distúrbio da região pode influenciar nas respostas da estrutura da vegetação à perda de cobertura florestal. Biomassa, mas não a densidade de indivíduos, foi afetada pela perda de cobertura florestal em regiões com nível intermediário de distúrbio, i.e. regiões apresentando uma combinação de níveis moderados de desmatamento (20-40% de cobertura florestal remanescente) em que a perturbação ocorreu ao longo dos últimos 30-60 anos, com alto grau de defaunação mas ainda abrigando populações relictuais de grandes mamíferos e, em sua maioria, compostos por uma matriz heterogênea. Em geral, nossos resultados destacaram que tanto a composição da paisagem como a estrutura do fragmento são os principais condutores de perda de biomassa em florestas Neotropicais e que o contexto da paisagem deve ser considerado para se obter estimativas mais confiáveis de emissão de carbono devido à degradação florestal. O planejamento da paisagem (e.g. restauração da cobertura florestal) deve ser incluído em estratégias de conservação em ordem de sustentar o armazenamento de carbono. Além disso, nós defendemos que iniciativas de conservação serão menos custosas e mais efetivas se implementadas em áreas sob níveis intermediários de distúrbio

A atividade de mudança do uso da terra na Amazônia vem sendo apontada como principal fonte de CO2 para a atmosfera em função das emissões de C e N provenientes do solo. A prática de manejo adotada pode influenciar significativamente nos estoques de C e N do solo funcionando como dreno ou fonte de C e N para a atmosfera. Além disso, podem ser alterados: a fertilidade e a densidade do solo bem como as frações e a origem da MOS. Com o objetivo de avaliar o impacto das mudanças de uso da terra na região leste da Amazônia foram coletadas amostras de terra nos principais usos da terra na região de Santarém-PA, em três profundidades: 0-10, 10-20 e 20-30 cm. Através das amostras foi realizada a caracterização físico-química das áreas e foram determinados os teores de C e N do solo e os isótopos ? 13C e ? 15N com a finalidade de quantificar os estoques de C e N do solo e avaliar a dinâmica e origem da MOS. Para um subconjunto de amostras foi realizado o fracionamento físico da MOS e a determinação do C da biomassa microbiana para compreender como a mudança de uso da terra interferiu nessas frações. Somado a essas determinações foi realizada a estimativa dos fatores de emissão com base na metodologia descrita pelo IPCC. Através da caracterização físicoquímica as áreas de estudo são caracterizadas por solos argilosos a muito argilosos. Os maiores valores de pH, macronutrientes, CTC, SB e V% foram observados nas áreas de agricultura (AGR) sugerindo que a utilização de práticas como adubação e calagem, são capazes de alterar os padrões de fertilidade do solo na Amazônia, aumentando seus índices de fertilidade. Para os estoques de C e N pode-se dizer que a mudança de uso da terra na região estudada está contribuindo para as perdas de C e N do solo, principalmente quando a conversão é realizada para áreas de agricultura (AGR) e pastagem (PA) sendo que os estoques de C observados na camada de 0-30 cm nessas áreas foram 49,21 Mg C ha-1 (PA) e 48,60 Mg C ha-1 (AGR). O maior valor de ? 13C foi encontrado nas áreas de pastagens, -25,08?, sugerindo que para as áreas de PA existe diluição isotópica e que parte do C do solo ainda é remanescente da floresta. As frações da MOS apresentaram alterações na quantidade de C e na proporção das frações leve e oclusa, principalmente nos usos AGR e PA. A fração lábil da MOS (C da biomassa microbiana) também apresentou grande diferença entre os usos FLO e AGR (526,21 e 296,78 ?g g-1de solo seco), indicando que a AGR foi o uso que mais alterou os estoques de C e N do solo e também as frações da MOS. Os fatores de emissão calculados confirmam todos os resultados observados em relação a conversão de FLO para AGR, sendo que para esse uso o fator de emissão foi de 0,93 ± 0,033, sendo então o uso que mais emitiu C. Com base nos resultados conclui-se que a introdução de áreas agrícolas na região de Santarém, é a principal causa de perda de C e N do solo e consequentemente é o uso que mais contribui com as emissões de gases do efeito estufa. / The land use change in the Brazilian Amazon has been identified as the main source of CO2 to the atmosphere due to emissions of soil carbon and nitrogenl. The management practice adopted can strongly influence the soil C and N stocks and may works like a sink or source of C and N to the atmosphere. Furthermore, can be changed: the soil fertility and bulk density as well as the SOM fractions and C source of the SOM. With the objective of evaluate the impact of the land use change in eastern Amazonia soil samples were collected in the main land uses in Santarém region, Para State of Brazil, at three depths: 0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm. Through the samples was performed the physicochemical characterization of the areas and were determined the soil C and N contents as well the isotopes ? 13C and ? 15N in order to quantify the soil C and N stocks and understand the SOM dynamics and evaluate the SOM origin. For a subset of samples were performed the physical fractionation of SOM and the determination of microbial biomass C to understand how the land use change may interfere in these fractions. Added to these determinations were estimated the emission factors based on the methodology described by the IPCC. Through the physicochemical characterization study areas can be characterized as a clayey loamy soils. The highest values of pH, macronutrients, CEC , sum of bases and base saturation were observed in croplands (CP), suggesting that the use of practices such as fertilization and liming are able to change the soil fertility patterns in the Amazon, increasing their fertility. For C and N stocks can be said that the land use change in the study area is contributing to the loss of soil C and N, especially when the conversion is done for croplands (CP) and grasslands (GS) areas and the value observed for soil C stocks in the 0-30 cm layer in these areas were 49.21 Mg C ha-1 (GS) and 48.60 Mg C ha-1 (CP). The highest ? 13C value was found in GS, -25.08 ?, suggesting that for these areas is occurring an isotope dilution and that part of the soil C is still remaining from forest. The SOM fractions showed changes in the amount of C and in the proportion of light and occluded fractions, especially in the uses CP and GS. The labile SOM fractions (microbial biomass) also showed a large difference between the UF and CP uses (526.21 and 296.78 mg g-1 of dry soil), indicating that CP affects the soil C and N stocks and also the SOM fractions. The emission factors calculated confirm all results observed for the conversion of UF for CP, and for this use the emission factor was 0.93 ± 0.033, and then this was the use that emitted more C. Based on the results we conclude that the introduction of croplands in Santarem region is the main cause of soil C and N loss and consequently contributes more to the greenhouse gases emission.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’instruire l’organisation des successions culturales, à l’échelle de la France et sur un recul décennal, tant en terme de cinétiques localisées qu’en terme de dynamiques liées à des variables explicatives du milieu physique et socio-technico-économiques. Ce travail de « fouille de données » est appliqué en France métropolitaine, en utilisant les bases de données publiques disponibles. Notre étude couvre la période 1992-2003 où s’implémenta la réforme de 1992 de la Politique Agricole Commune européenne et l’agenda 2000 en France. A partir d’une fouille de données sur l’ensemble des points Terruti sur cette période, 2549 successions culturales de trois ans furent identifiées. Ensuite, 21 clusters de l’ensemble des 430 régions agricoles (RA) françaises, quatre systèmes de culture, 90 RA, parangons des 430 RA, et trois régions principales appartenant à cinq des 21 clusters, regroupant les cultures de céréales, oléagineux et protéagineux, ont été définis. Deux approches de cinétiques des successions ont été réalisées : Une étude envisageant les successions de culture qui suivent les retournements de prairies permanentes. Une recherche des dynamiques d’évolution de successions culturales en lien avec des conditions externes. Nous proposons une utilisation ultérieure des méthodes mobilisées qui ont montré leur capacité à cartographier les grandes tendances d’évolution en France et à identifier les principales variables explicatives de ces évolutions. Les apports de cette thèse contribuent à améliorer notre compréhension des processus qui organisent les successions culturales en France et construisent par ces pratiques agricoles très dynamiques des impacts forts sur le territoire agricole français / In the context of changing agricultural policy, the development of agricultural production systems, increasing concern for agricultural sustainability and shifts in agricultural land management practice-related land-use change, the main objective of this thesis was to mine crop sequence patterns (CSP) and the relationships between CSP and the biophysical and socio-technical-economic conditions in mainland France from historical census data (e.g. land-cover survey, agricultural censuses, population census). Our study period 1992-2003 covers the implementation period of the 1992 European Union Common Agricultural Policy reform and Agenda 2000 in France. Both the classical statistical and data mining technique were applied in alone or combined ways in this thesis. First, we proposed an innovative approach to representing CSP within a given area and period at a large regional scale in a stationary way. The 2549 3-year crop sequences (CSs) were first identified as major CSs within all 430 agricultural districts (ADs) in mainland France during this period. Next, 21 clusters of ADs , four types of cropping systems, 90 representative ADs and three principal planting zones of cereals, oilseeds, and protein crops belonging to five clusters identified previously were further defined. We then explored CSP in a dynamic way by investigating CSP after grassland-to-cropland conversion, the temporal variability of CSP, and the evolution of the relationships between CSP and the external conditions over the study period. We conclude that the approaches developed here permit the representation of CSP at the large regional scale in both stationary and dynamic ways using time series land-cover data denoting specific agricultural cover types. The findings of this thesis contribute to improving the understanding of the process and pattern of human land management practices by agriculture affecting the terrestrial biosphere

Study region Nyangores River watershed, headwater catchment of Mara River basin in Kenya. Study focus Climate variability and human activities are the main drivers of change of watershed hydrology. The contribution of climate variability and land use change to change in streamflow of Nyangores River, was investigated. Mann Kendall and sequential Mann Kendall tests were used to investigate the presence and breakpoint of a trend in discharge data (1965–2007) respectively. The Budyko framework was used to separate the respective contribution of drivers to change in discharge. Future response of the watershed to climate change was predicted using the runoff sensitivity equation developed. New hydrological insights for the region There was a significant increasing trend in the discharge with a breakpoint in 1977. Land use change was found to be the main driver of change in discharge accounting for 97.5% of the change. Climate variability only caused a net increase of the remaining 2.5% of the change; which was caused by counter impacts on discharge of increase in rainfall (increased discharge by 24%) and increase in potential evapotranspiration (decreased discharge by 21.5%). Climate change was predicted to cause a moderate 16% and 15% increase in streamflow in the next 20 and 50 years respectively. Change in discharge was specifically attributed to deforestation at the headwaters of the watershed.

No description available.

Seed-oil based biodiesel production particularly biodiesel production from the nonedible oil seed bearing plant - Jatropha curcas L. - is a key strategic direction outlined in the biofuels strategy of the Government of Ethiopia. The main objective underlying the strategy include substitution of imported diesel oil used in the road transport sector while at the same time contributing to the local and global greenhouse gasses (GHG) reduction efforts. In this study the environmental benefits and costs of production and use of Jatropha biodiesel in the road transport sector of Ethiopia is assessed using a life cycle analysis (LCA) methodology. The analysis focused on determining the potential environmental impacts and net non-renewable energy saving potential of biodiesel from Jatropha oil-seeds using the following metrics: (i) Net Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction, and (ii) Net Energy Balance (NEB) relative to diesel oil. The study shows that the net GHG emissions reduction potential of Jatropha Methyl Ester (JME) is highly influenced by the magnitude of initial carbon loss occurring in the process of conversion of different land uses to Jatropha plantation, and less so on other unit processes of JME production system analysed. The NEB of JME relative to use of diesel oil per functional unit of one GJ is less sensitive to impacts of land use change and is generally positive. Where no land use change impacts is considered, or where Jatropha is grown on lands with low carbon stock such as grasslands, substitution of diesel oil with JME in Ethiopia can provide GHG emission reduction of about 43%, and for each MJ of JME produced the nonrenewable energy requirement will be 0,38 MJ. Production of JME by converting lands with high above ground, below ground and/or soil carbon stocks such as shrub lands or well stocked forest lands will result in net loss of carbon and require ecological carbon payback time of 50 to hundreds of years. The impact of introducing and use of JME-diesel oil blends by Anbassa City Bus Services Enterprise (ACBSE) bus fleets shows that, displacement of diesel oil with JME that have positive GHG reduction potential, will also contribute to the reduction of air pollutants and improvement of ambient air quality in Addis Ababa. Two key recommendations of this research work are that to ensure environmental sustainability of biodiesel production from Jatropha seeds (i) land availability and land suitability assessment for estimating the potential available land for Jatropha (and other oil-seed bearing plants) shall be conducted, and (ii) minimum requirements on GHG reduction and NEB requirements on biodiesel shall be established. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Management)

Study region Nyangores River watershed, headwater catchment of Mara River basin in Kenya. Study focus Climate variability and human activities are the main drivers of change of watershed hydrology. The contribution of climate variability and land use change to change in streamflow of Nyangores River, was investigated. Mann Kendall and sequential Mann Kendall tests were used to investigate the presence and breakpoint of a trend in discharge data (1965–2007) respectively. The Budyko framework was used to separate the respective contribution of drivers to change in discharge. Future response of the watershed to climate change was predicted using the runoff sensitivity equation developed. New hydrological insights for the region There was a significant increasing trend in the discharge with a breakpoint in 1977. Land use change was found to be the main driver of change in discharge accounting for 97.5% of the change. Climate variability only caused a net increase of the remaining 2.5% of the change; which was caused by counter impacts on discharge of increase in rainfall (increased discharge by 24%) and increase in potential evapotranspiration (decreased discharge by 21.5%). Climate change was predicted to cause a moderate 16% and 15% increase in streamflow in the next 20 and 50 years respectively. Change in discharge was specifically attributed to deforestation at the headwaters of the watershed.

Die Nachfrage nach Agrarprodukten hat rapide zugenommen, besonders in schnell wachsenden Volkswirtschaften. Agrarimporte nach China gestiegen, trotz der vielfach gestiegenen Inlandsproduktion seit der Reform und Öffnung 1978. Jedoch ging die Steigerung der Agrarproduktion einher mit hohen Umweltkosten, zum einen durch eine massive Erhöhung der Inputintensität und zum anderen durch die Veränderung der Anbaumuster. In dieser Arbeit habe ich umwelt- und sozioökonomische Daten auf Kreis-Ebene analysiert, um ein grundliegendes quantitatives Verständnis der Muster, Determinanten und Ursachen der landwirtschaftlichen Landnutzungsveränderung in China von 1980 bis 2011 zu entwickeln. In Kapitel II und III habe ich die Veränderung der Anbaumuster der Hauptkultur auf Kreisebene zusammengefasst. Ich habe diese Daten mittels explorativer Geodatenanalyse und räumlich expliziter Panel-Regression untersucht, um raum-zeitliche Determinanten der Änderung in Anbaufläche und Ertrag der Hauptkultur zu identifizieren. In Kapitel IV nutzte ich diese Daten, um die Veränderung der Technischen Effizienz in der Pflanzenproduktion mit Hilfe eines stochastischen Grenzansatzes zu ermitteln, wiederum durch den Einsatz einer räumlich-ökonometrischen Panel-Analyse. Insgesamt hat sich die räumliche Konzentration von Hauptkulturen erhöht. Haupteinflussfaktor für diese Entwicklung war die Bevölkerung. Diese Analyse beleuchtet die Muster und Treiber des agrarwirtschaftlichen Landnutzungswandel für gesamt China und gibt Einblicke in die Brennpunkte des Wandels in Landnutzungsumfang und –intensität. Außerdem zeigten die Elastizitäten der Input-Veränderungen einen Trend in der Pflanzenproduktionsintensität von traditionell zu wissenschaftlich-technologischen Eingriffen. Die Ergebnisse können zur Einwicklung räumlich ausgerichteter Landnutzungspolitiken in China beitragen. Sie stellen außerdem wichtige Fallbeweise für den globalen Landnutzungswandel zur Verfügung. / Abstract Demand for agricultural products has been increasing at an unprecedented pace, particularly in rapidly growing economies such as China. Agricultural imports to China have soared despite domestic production increasing manifold since reforming and opening in 1978. However, the increase in agricultural production in China involved high environmental costs, brought about by massively increasing input intensity and by the transition in cropping patterns. In this thesis, I analysed environmental and socioeconomic data at county level to develop a solid quantitative understanding of patterns, determinants, and causes of agricultural land-use changes across all of China from 1980 to 2011. In Chapter II and Chapter III, I summarized the changes in patterns of the main crops at county level. I then examined these data with exploratory spatial data analysis and spatially explicit panel regressions in order to identify the spatial and temporal determinants of changes in area and yield of major crops. In chapter IV, I used the same dataset, but focussed on changes in technical efficiency in crop production using a stochastic frontier approach, again by employing spatial econometric panel analysis. Overall, the spatial concentration of the major crops increased, with population the main determinant for this trend. Furthermore, modern inputs, including machinery and fertilizer, were increasingly important in crop production, and land use efficiency increased slightly and varied temporally and spatially. This analysis shed light on the patterns and drivers of agricultural land-system change for all of China, including insights on hotspots of changes in land use extent and intensity. Besides, the elasticity of input changes showed the growth of crop production was shift from traditional farming practices to modern. This study is valuable to inform and spatially target land-use policies in China and provide important case evidence for global land-use change.