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This paper uses U.S. macroeconomic data drawn from 2001 to 2010 in order to test for the operation of a credit channel of monetary transmission. Using a combination of a VAR and ADL time series frameworks, evidence is found for the impairment of the credit channel during the crisis period relative to the period which preceded it. Evidence is also found against the presence of a "credit crunch" during the crisis, and supporting evidence is found for the existence of a "credit trap." This analysis indicates a significant role for credit market imperfections in the transmission of monetary policy, and holds policy implications for the potential impact of future monetary expansions conducted in the setting of a financial crisis.

Η πρόσφατη έρευνα για τους καθοριστικούς παράγοντες σε επίπεδο επιχείρησης της σταθερής επένδυσης έχει τονίσει τη σημασία των επεξηγηματικών μεταβλητών ώς προσεγγιστικές για την εσωτερική χρηματοδότηση των εταιριών που κρατούν σταθερά τα μέτρα των σταθερών ευκαιριών ή το κόστος του κεφαλαίου. Τέτοιες μελέτες έχουν βασιστεί στις αποκλίσεις από τα νεοκλασσικά υποδείγματα επένδυσης με τις τέλειες αγορές κεφαλαιαου στην κατεύθυνση των υποδειγμάτων βασισμένων στις ασυμμετρικές πληροφορίες στις χρηματαγορές. Αυτές οι αποκλίσεις στηρίζονται στην γνώση των θεωρητικών υποδειγμάτων του χρηματοοικονομικού συμβολαίου υπό συνθήκες ασυμμετριών στην πληροφόρηση χρησιμοποιώντας την δυσμενή επιλογή ή/και τον ηθικό κίνδυνο, στα οποία οι μετακινήσεις στα εσωτερικά κεφάλαια προβλέπουν μετακινήσεις στα έξοδα επένδυσης, κρατώντας σταθερές ευκαιρίες επένδυσης. Ο σκοπός αυτής της διατριβής είναι να διαμορφωθεί ο αντίκτυπος του χρηματοοικονομικού περιορισμού στις αποφάσεις επένδυσης των εταιρειών στην Ελλάδα και στην Ευρώπη. Η διατριβή εφαρμόζει ένα δυναμικό υπόδειγμα επένδυσης, όπου οι χρηματοοικονομικές μεταβλητές και η πραγματική επένδυση συνδέονται σε μία προσπάθεια να ερευνηθεί το πρόβλημα της ατέλειας στις κεφαλαιαγορές. Ένα περαιτέρω βήμα προς τα εμπρός είναι να ερευνηθούν οι πιθανές ασυμμετρίες στις αποφάσεις επένδυσης σχετικά με την κατάσταση των προσδοκιών των επιχειρηματιών που δίνει έμφαση στο ρόλο του επιχειρηματικού κύκλου. Προκειμένου να παρασχεθεί μια πλήρης εικόνα του προβλήματος των αποφάσεων επένδυσης, εκτός από το κεφάλαιο, εισάγουμε τον όρο της ζήτησης εργασίας. Ειδικότερα, μελετάμε την πιθανή επίδραση στη ζήτηση εργασίας των ατελειών της αγοράς κεφαλαίου, τις θεσμικές ακαμψίες της αγοράς εργασίας υπό την μορφή της δύναμης των ενώσεων, και τον αντίκτυπο της αβεβαιότητας. Υιοθετούμε μια δυναμική μεθοδολογία χρονικώς επαναλαμβανομένων διαστρωματικών στοιχείων (panel data) χρησιμοποιώντας την μέθοδο των εκτιμητών των Γενικευμένων Ροπών-Generalised Method of Moments- (GMM) σε ένα σύνολο στοιχείων εισηγμένων Ελληνικών επιχειρήσεων κατά τη διάρκεια της περιόδου 1993-2001. Επιπλέον, εξετάζουμε ένα σύνολο στοιχείων σε κλαδικό επίπεδο για τις περισσότερες από τις ηπειρωτικές ευρωπαϊκές χώρες για την περίοδο από το 1987 εώς το 2003. / Recent research on determinants of firm-level fixed investment has stressed the importance of proxies for firms’ internal finance as explanatory variables, holding constant measures of firm opportunities or the cost of capital. Such studies have been based on departures from neoclassical investment models with perfect capital markets in the direction of models based on asymmetric information in financial markets. These departures build on insights from theoretical models of financial contracting under asymmetric information, using adverse selection and/or moral hazard examples, in which movements in internal funds predict movements in investment spending, holding constant investment opportunities. The purpose of this thesis is to model the impact of financial distress on the investment decisions of firms in Greece and in Europe. To do so, the thesis builds a dynamic investment model, where financial variables and real investment are linked in an attempt to explore the problem of imperfection in capital markets. A further step forward is to investigate potential asymmetries in agents’ investment decisions relative to the state of expectation highlighting the role of business cycle. In order to provide a full picture of the investment decision problem, apart from capital, we introduce the term of labour demand. In particular, we explore the potential effect on labour demand of capital market imperfections, labour market institutional rigidities in the form of union power, and the impact of uncertainty. We employ a dynamic panel data methodology, a GMM estimation technique, is used on a panel data set of Greek firms over the 1993-2001 period. In addition, a panel data set on a sectoral level for most of the continental European countries is also exploited for the period from 1987 to 2003.

Este trabalho analisa a evolução do grau de restrição de capital (dívida ou emissão de ações), sob a abordagem da relação entre a fluxo de caixa e investimetno (\"cash flow sensitivity\"), para empresas brasileiras e argentinas para quatro períodos macroeconômicos distintos. Estimou - se essa relação por meio de análise econométrica de painel para empresas de dois países: Brasil e Argentina. Espera-se que, na presença de imperfeições de mercado, ocorra restrição de capitais (financiamento externo), que se manisfeta por meio de uma relação positiva e significante entre o fluxo de caixa e o investimento. Os resultados mostram que a sensibilidade do investimento a variações no fluxo de caixa segue trajetória muito parecida nos dois países. De 1995 a 1997, período de estabilização econômica e crescimento em ambos os países, a relação foi positiva e significante, mostrando haver significativa restrição de capital. De 1998 a 2003, os anos das multi crises externas e internas, a relação entre as duas variáveis não foi estatisticamente significante. É um período em que as empresas utilizam as fontes de capital mais para assegurar a própria sobrevivência do que para crescer. De 2004 a 2007, os anos de recuperação da economia mundial, o coeficiente volta a ter relação positiva e significante, mas menor comparativametne ao período base (1995 a 1997). No Brasil, esse período foi caracterizado pelo fortalecimento dos mecanismos de governança corporativa, que aliados ao crescimento econômico e à oferta de capitais internacionais, propiciaram uma onda de aberturas de capital de empresas. De 2008 a 2009, período da crise financeira global, essa relação sofre um ligeiro acréscimo em ambos os paises. Apesar da vasta literatura sobre o tema, poucos trabalhos abordam a evolução da sensibilidade do investimento ao fluxo de caixa no tempo. Este trabalho visa a preencher esta lacuna para o Brasil e para a Argentina. / This article analyzes the degree of restriction of capital (debt or issuing shares), under the approach of the investment-cash flow sensitivity, suffered by companies from Brazil and Argentina in four different macroeconomic periods. This relation was estimated via econometric analysis of panel for the companies of the two countries. It is expected to have capital constraints when under the presence of market imperfections. This restriction is manifested through a positive and significant relation between cash flow and investment. The results showed that the link between investment and cash flow sensitivity was very similar in the both countries. From 1995 to 1997, period of economic stability and economic growth in both countries, this relationship was positive and significant showing a capital constraints. From 1998 to 2003 (multi-crisis), the relationship between the two variables was not statistically significant. It was a period that companies use their external finance to survive in the recession. From 2004 to 2007, world economic recovery, the rate reverts to a positive and significant, but lower compared with the baseline period (1995-1997). In Brazil, this period was characterized by the strengthening of corporate governance mechanisms which, together with economic growth and the supply of international capital, led a wave of IPOs of companies. De 2008 a 2009, the period of global financial crisis, this relationship suffers a slight increase. Despite the vast literature on the subject, studies regarding the evolution of the sensitivity of investment to cash flow in time.This work aims to fill this gap for Brazil and Argentina.

Este trabalho analisa a evolução do grau de restrição de capital (dívida ou emissão de ações), sob a abordagem da relação entre a fluxo de caixa e investimetno (\"cash flow sensitivity\"), para empresas brasileiras e argentinas para quatro períodos macroeconômicos distintos. Estimou - se essa relação por meio de análise econométrica de painel para empresas de dois países: Brasil e Argentina. Espera-se que, na presença de imperfeições de mercado, ocorra restrição de capitais (financiamento externo), que se manisfeta por meio de uma relação positiva e significante entre o fluxo de caixa e o investimento. Os resultados mostram que a sensibilidade do investimento a variações no fluxo de caixa segue trajetória muito parecida nos dois países. De 1995 a 1997, período de estabilização econômica e crescimento em ambos os países, a relação foi positiva e significante, mostrando haver significativa restrição de capital. De 1998 a 2003, os anos das multi crises externas e internas, a relação entre as duas variáveis não foi estatisticamente significante. É um período em que as empresas utilizam as fontes de capital mais para assegurar a própria sobrevivência do que para crescer. De 2004 a 2007, os anos de recuperação da economia mundial, o coeficiente volta a ter relação positiva e significante, mas menor comparativametne ao período base (1995 a 1997). No Brasil, esse período foi caracterizado pelo fortalecimento dos mecanismos de governança corporativa, que aliados ao crescimento econômico e à oferta de capitais internacionais, propiciaram uma onda de aberturas de capital de empresas. De 2008 a 2009, período da crise financeira global, essa relação sofre um ligeiro acréscimo em ambos os paises. Apesar da vasta literatura sobre o tema, poucos trabalhos abordam a evolução da sensibilidade do investimento ao fluxo de caixa no tempo. Este trabalho visa a preencher esta lacuna para o Brasil e para a Argentina. / This article analyzes the degree of restriction of capital (debt or issuing shares), under the approach of the investment-cash flow sensitivity, suffered by companies from Brazil and Argentina in four different macroeconomic periods. This relation was estimated via econometric analysis of panel for the companies of the two countries. It is expected to have capital constraints when under the presence of market imperfections. This restriction is manifested through a positive and significant relation between cash flow and investment. The results showed that the link between investment and cash flow sensitivity was very similar in the both countries. From 1995 to 1997, period of economic stability and economic growth in both countries, this relationship was positive and significant showing a capital constraints. From 1998 to 2003 (multi-crisis), the relationship between the two variables was not statistically significant. It was a period that companies use their external finance to survive in the recession. From 2004 to 2007, world economic recovery, the rate reverts to a positive and significant, but lower compared with the baseline period (1995-1997). In Brazil, this period was characterized by the strengthening of corporate governance mechanisms which, together with economic growth and the supply of international capital, led a wave of IPOs of companies. De 2008 a 2009, the period of global financial crisis, this relationship suffers a slight increase. Despite the vast literature on the subject, studies regarding the evolution of the sensitivity of investment to cash flow in time.This work aims to fill this gap for Brazil and Argentina.

Aktiepristeorier påstår att priset justeras proportionerligt med förlorad rätt till utdelning vid köppå ex-dagen. Tidigare studier har gett bevis på prisanomalier i USA, Japan och Oman. Genom attestimera en teoretisk aktiekursrörelse och jämföra den med den faktiska aktiekursrörelsen drar vislutsatsen att prisanomalier förekommit på Stockholmsbörsen under vår undersökta tidsperiod.Vårt resultat visar att ex-dagseffekten är relaterad till kontantutdelningar; den är inte entillfällighet och kan inte helt förklaras av egenskaper på specifika marknader. / Stock price theories suggest that prices adjust proportionate to the loss of dividend yields on ex-days.Earlier studies have shown evidence of pricing anomalies in USA, Japan and Oman. By estimating atheoretical stock return and comparing it to the actual returns over a time period close to the ex-dayswe can conclude that pricing anomalies have occurred in Stockholm Stock Exchange during ourmeasured period. Our findings show that the ex-day effect is related to cash dividends; it is notcoincidental and cannot be fully explained by attributes of particular markets.

This thesis studies how firms’ investment and credit are affected by different financial imperfections related to firm and bank learning, relationship lending and financial wealth. After reviewing in chapter 2 the related literature, in chapter 3 I investigate the main determinants of different types of financial constraints, such as credit rationing and excessive cost of debt, by constructing new measures of these problems based on qualitative data. I then develop in chapter 4 a model of firm investment with financial constraints and Bayesian learning that provides a new framework to analyze the problem of asymmetric learning between a bank and a firm and its effect on a firm’s investment decision. This model is used to investigate, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between firms’ investment and internal funds in the presence of limited information, learning and bankruptcy costs, providing new arguments to support a ushaped curve theory of investment and internal funds. Finally, in chapter 5 this model is used to analyze how relationship lending affects the evolution of interest rates during the life cycle of firms. / Esta tesis estudia cómo la inversión y el crédito están afectados por diferentes imperfecciones financieras relacionadas con el aprendizaje, las relaciones de crédito y la riqueza financiera. Luego de revisar la literatura relacionada, en el Capítulo 3 se investiga los principales determinantes de distintas restricciones financieras relacionadas con el acceso y las condiciones del crédito, mediante la construcción de nuevos indicadores de estos problemas. Luego, en el Capítulo 4 se desarrolla un modelo de inversión con restricciones financieras y aprendizaje Bayesiano que provee un nuevo marco para analizar el problema del aprendizaje asimétrico entre un banco y una firma y su efecto en las decisiones de inversión de esta última. Dicho modelo es utilizado para investigar de forma teórica y empírica la relación entre la inversión y los recursos propios en la presencia de información asimétrica, aprendizaje y costes de quiebra, obteniendo nuevos argumentos para apoyar la teoría de una relación en forma de U entre la inversión y los recursos propios. Finalmente, en el Capítulo 5 se estudia como una relación de crédito afecta la evolución de los tipos de interés durante el ciclo de vida de las firmas.

The weight of real estate in a multi-asset portfolio is a highly discussed matter and the main purpose for every investor is to reach an optimal diversification. The aim of the thesis is to apply a new allocation model, which considers market imperfections characterized by real estate. The most known and used method today is the mean-variance approach, founded in the modern portfolio theory. Modern portfolio theory is based on several assumptions, where one of these is the assumption of an efficient market. However, real estate is not considered the be a part of the efficient market due to several market imperfections, such as illiquidity, transaction cost etc. Market imperfection generate risk, which naturally should decrease the optimal weight of real estate in the portfolio. In order to assess optimal real estate allocation in a multi-asset portfolio when accounting for market imperfections an extended approach of the mean-variance model is applied. The extended model accounts for risk-aversion, transaction cost and time-on-market. The model is divided in two approaches, the benchmark- and normative approach, based on two different papers. The model is tested on the Swedish market with current market conditions in order to assess the models applicability. The result from the benchmark approach suggested an optimal real estate allocation of 0,72 –  5,84 %. The normative approach has been dismissed as inconclusive and unreliable due to abnormal weight of real estate. However, the value of risk-aversion is identified as the strongest determinant in both the models.  The allocation from the benchmark approach is, as expected, lower than results of the standard mean-variance approach. The extended model is a useful and valid tool in the consideration of market imperfections characterized by real estate. / Vikten av fastigheter i en portfölj med fler tillgångsslag är en omdiskuterad fråga där det huvudsakliga målet för en investerare är att uppnå en optimal diversifiering. Målet med uppsatsen är att testa en ny allokerings modell som tar hänsyn till fastigheters speciella attribut, marknadsimperfektioner. Den vanligast förekommande metoden för att beräkna allokeringen mot fastigheter härstammar från modern portfolio teori (MPT). MPT baserar på ett antal antaganden, varav ett är en effektiv marknad. Problematiken ligger i att fastigheter inte kvalificerar sig inom ramen för den effektiva marknaden då de delvis räknas som en illikvid tillgång, förenade med höga transaktionskostnader. Marknadsimperfektioner resulterar i risk vilket logiskt leder till en lägre vikt av fastigheter i portföljen. För att utvärdera den optimala allokeringen mot fastigheter i en portfölj med flera tillgångar används en modifierad version av den klassiska medelvariationsmodellen som tar hänsyn till vissa av marknadsimperfektioner. Den modifierade versionen tar hänsyn till risk aversion, transaktionskostnad och försäljningstid. Modellen är uppdelad i två tillvägagångsätt, den ena benämnd som benchmark- och den andra som normativa metoden, baserat på varsin vetenskaplig artikel. Modellen testas på den svenska marknaden under nuvarande marknadsförutsättningar för att bedöma dess tillämplighet. Resultatet från benchmarkmetoden visar på en optimal fastighetsallokering om 0,72 – 5,84 %. Resultaten för den normativa modellen är förkastade som ofullständiga och opålitliga. I vilket fall identifieras riskaversionen som den mest avgörande faktorn i båda modellerna. Benchmarkmetoden ger en lägre optimal allokering gentemot fastigheter, än den som räknas fram med den klassiska mean-variance metoden. Den utvidgade modellen anses vara en användbar och giltig metod som tar hänsyn till de marknadsimperfektioner som fastigheter karaktäriseras av.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:48:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 86627.PDF.jpg: 24656 bytes, checksum: 64d2275af3770d23e7062f9fedb68c40 (MD5) 86627.PDF: 1108037 bytes, checksum: 6d0b49ce06a0e7455cd5e14e98f365ab (MD5) 86627.PDF.txt: 395821 bytes, checksum: 5f7a71a525c45e2f184d856fe24db86d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2003-06-11T00:00:00Z / The fixed investments decisions of firms operating in capital markets facing imperfections are sensitive to the availability of internal funds (investment-cashflow sensitivity), rather than just depending on the availability of projects with positive net present values. This occurs since, in these environments, the cost of external capital exceeds that of internal funds (this cost difference is called financial constraints). This study describes the main concepts, the intuition of some models and shows the current debate regarding the topic – the studies diverge regarding the influence of financial constraints in the investment-cashflow sensitivity. The relationship of financial constraints and investment-cashflow sensitivity is examined empirically with Brazilian firm-level data for the period 1992 to 2001 using CLEARY’s methodology. A new measure of total investments is proposed. The main result obtained with this sample, and considering the total investment model, is that investment decisions of firms with less financial constraints are sensitive to the availability of internal funds, but firms with higher financial constraints are not. This may be explained by the fact that these firms face financial distress problems and are in a situation where only the absolutely essential investments are taken. / Em ambientes de mercados de capitais imperfeitos, as decisões de investimento das empresas em ativo fixo são sensíveis à disponibilidade de recursos internos (a chamada sensibilidade investimento fluxo de caixa), em vez de somente depender da disponibilidade de projetos com valor presente líquido positivo. Isso ocorre porque os recursos internos apresentam menor custo em relação aos recursos externos (chama-se esse diferencial de custo de restrições financeiras). Este estudo expõe os principais conceitos, a base intuitiva de alguns modelos e o debate que atualmente ocorre na literatura com relação ao tema: os resultados empíricos apresentam divergências quanto à influência das restrições financeiras na sensibilidade do investimento a variações da disponibilidade de recursos internos (fluxo de caixa). Utilizando a metodologia de CLEARY (1999), ainda não testada no Brasil, este trabalho investiga empiricamente a relação entre restrições financeiras e a sensibilidade investimento fluxo de caixa das empresas no Brasil no período de 1992 a 2001, introduzindo uma nova medida para o investimento total. A principal conclusão com a amostra deste estudo, considerando os modelos de investimento total, é a de que as empresas com menores restrições financeiras apresentam sensibilidade investimento fluxo de caixa, mas nas empresas com maiores restrições o mesmo não ocorre. Uma possível explicação para isso é que tais empresas apresentam fortes problemas financeiros e possivelmente estejam em uma situação em que apenas os investimentos absolutamente essenciais continuem sendo feitos.

This dissertation collects three essays which deal with financial development in emerging markets. Owing to the appliance of different econometric methods on several data sets, insights in the behavior of and the impacts from financial markets are generated. Usually, the financial markets in emerging countries are characterized by the presence of credit constraints. In the first chapter it is shown that the financial development in 19th century Germany generally affected the economy in a positive way. Additionally, when different economic sectors are under investigation, it is revealed that the reaction due to financial development is not homogeneously across the sectors. A structural vector autoregression (VAR) framework is applied to a new annual data set from 1870 to 1912 that was initially compiled by Walther Hoffmann (1965). With respect to the literature, the most important difference of this analysis is the focus on different sectors in the economy and the interpretation of the results in the context of a two-sector growth model. It is revealed that all sectors were affected significantly by shocks from the banking system. Interestingly, this link is the strongest in sectors with small or non-tradable-goods-producing firms, such as construction, services, transportation and agriculture. In this regard, the growth patterns in 19th century Germany are reminiscent to those in today's emerging markets. The second chapter deals with the integration of the stock markets of mainland China with those of the United States and Hong Kong. Market integration and the resulting welfare gains as risk sharing, increasing investment and growth benefits has become a central topic in international finance research. This chapter investigates stock market integration after stock market liberalization which is assessed by spillover effects from Hong Kong and the United States to Chinese stock market indices. Dividing the sample in pre- and post-liberalization phases, causality in variance procedure is applied using four mainland China stock market indices, two indices of the stock exchange in Hong Kong and the Dow Jones Industrials index in the main part. Evidence of global and regional integration is found, but no evidence for increasing integration after the partial opening of the Chinese stock markets, neither with Hong Kong nor with the United States. Based on the idea presented in the first chapter, the third chapter examines one of today's emerging markets. As China is experiencing remarkable economic growth in the recent decades, it is analyzed if and to what extent the ongoing deregulations in the financial system contribute to this development. Structural VARs for gross domestic product as well as for sectoral output data in conjunction with two different bank lending variables are applied. It is indicated that China is positive affected by financial development and that all sectors benefit from domestic bank lending enlargements but to different degrees. Especially in the sectors where mainly state-owned enterprises are represented - such as construction, trade and transportation - shocks in bank lending have a strong positive influence while sectors where private enterprises are prevalent, seem to be more credit constrained.