本篇論文主要討論在死亡率改善不確定性之下的避險策略。當保險公司負債面的人壽保單是比年金商品來得多的時候，公司會處於死亡率的風險之下。我們假設死亡率和利率都是隨機的情況，部分的死亡率風險可以經由自然避險而消除，而剩下的死亡率風險和利率風險則由零息債券和保單貼現商品來達到最適避險效果。我們考慮mean variance、VaR和CTE當成目標函數時的避險策略，其中在mean variance的最適避險策略可以導出公式解。由數值結果我們可以得知保單貼現的確是死亡率風險的有效避險工具。 / This paper proposes hedging strategies to deal with the uncertainty of mortality improvement. When insurance company has more life insurance contracts than annuities in the liability, it will be under the exposure of mortality risk. We assume both mortality and interest rate risk are stochastic. Part of mortality risk is eliminated by natural hedging and the remaining mortality risk and interest rate risk will be optimally hedged by zero coupon bond and life settlement contract. We consider the hedging strategies with objective functions of mean variance, value at risk and conditional tail expectation. The closed-form optimal hedging formula for mean variance assumption is derived, and the numerical result show the life settlement is indeed a effective hedging instrument against mortality risk.

In this thesis the superconducting and magnetic phases of LiOH(Fe,Co)(Se,S), CuFeAs/CuFeSb, and LaFeP_1-xAs_xO - belonging to the 11, 111 and 1111 structural classes of iron-based arsenides and chalcogenides - are investigated by means of 57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy and muon spin rotation/relaxation (μSR). Of major importance in this study is the application of high magnetic fields in Mössbauer spectroscopy to distinguish and characterize ferro- (FM) and antiferromagnetic (AFM) order. A user-friendly Mössbauer data analysis program was developed to provide suitable model functions not only for high field spectra, but relaxation spectra or parameter distributions in general. In LaFeP_1-xAs_xO the reconstruction of the Fermi surface is described by the vanishing of the Γ hole pocket with decreasing x. The continuous change of the orbital character and the covalency of the d-electrons is shown by Mössbauer spectroscopy. A novel antiferromagnetic phase with small magnetic moments of ~ 0.1 μ_B state is characterized. The superconducting order parameter is proven to continuously change from a nodal to a fully gapped s-wave like Fermi surface in the superconducting regime as a function of x, partially investigated on (O,F) substituted samples. LiOHFeSe is one of the novel intercalated FeSe compounds, showing strongly increased T_C = 43 K mainly due to increased interlayer spacing and resulting two-dimensionality of the Fermi surface. The primary interest of the samples of this thesis is the simultaneously observed ferromagnetism and superconductivity. The local probe techniques prove that superconducting sample volume gets replaced by ferromagnetic volume. Ferromagnetism arises from magnetic order with T_C = 10 K of secondary iron in the interlayer. The tendency of this system to show (Li,Fe) disorder is preserved upon (Se,S) substitution. However, superconductivity gets suppressed. The results of Mössbauer spectroscopy indicate that the systems tends to a secondary structural phase, where the local iron environment observed in pure FeS is absent. Moreover, two interlayer positions of the iron are identified. The absence of enhanced superconducting T_C in LiOHFeS thus is related to a structural instability. Also, in CuFeAs the role of secondary iron at the Cu position turns out to be decisive for the observed magnetic behaviour. As in LiOHFeSe, it orders ferromagnetically at T_C ~ 11 K and superimposes with the magnetic instability of the main iron site. It is shown that a small charge doping of 0.1e/Fe, which is expected from (Cu,Fe) disorder, is sufficient to switch the system between a paramagnetic and an AFM ground state. Both magnetic orders are indistinguishable, because the magnetic order parameters are strongly coupled. This coupling was observed in the structurally identical CuFeSb, where the magnetic order parameters of both iron sites scale perfectly. The magnetically unstable CuFeAs and the ferromagnetic CuFeSb can be classified according to the theory of As height driven magnetism, predicting a change from paramagnetism to AFM and finally FM with increasing As height.

L’évolution des techniques d’acquisition de l’activité neuronale permet désormais d'enregistrer simultanément jusqu’à plusieurs centaines de neurones dans le cortex ou dans la rétine. L’analyse de ces données nécessite des méthodes mathématiques et numériques pour décrire les corrélations spatiotemporelles de la population neuronale. Une méthode couramment employée est basée sur le principe d’entropie maximale. Dans ce cas, le produit N×R, où N est le nombre de neurones et R le temps maximal considéré dans les corrélations, est un paramètre crucial. Les méthodes de physique statistique usuelles sont limitées aux corrélations spatiales avec R = 1 (Ising) alors que les méthodes basées sur des matrices de transfert, permettant l’analyse des corrélations spatio-temporelles (R > 1), sont limitées à N×R≤20. Dans une première partie, nous proposons une version modifiée de la méthode de matrice de transfert, basée sur un algorithme de Monte-Carlo parallèle, qui nous permet d’aller jusqu’à N×R=100. Dans la deuxième partie, nous présentons la bibliothèque C++ Enas, dotée d’une interface graphique développée pour les neurobiologistes. Enas offre un environnement hautement interactif permettant aux utilisateurs de gérer les données, effectuer des analyses empiriques, interpoler des modèles statistiques et visualiser les résultats. Enfin, dans une troisième partie, nous testons notre méthode sur des données synthétiques et réelles (rétine, fournies par nos partenaires biologistes). Notre analyse non exhaustive montre l’avantage de considérer des corrélations spatio-temporelles pour l’analyse des données rétiniennes; mais elle montre aussi les limites des méthodes d’entropie maximale. / Recent experimental advances have made it possible to record up to several hundreds of neurons simultaneously in the cortex or in the retina. Analyzing such data requires mathematical and numerical methods to describe the spatio-temporal correlations in population activity. This can be done thanks to Maximum Entropy method. Here, a crucial parameter is the product N×R where N is the number of neurons and R the memory depth of correlations (how far in the past does the spike activity affects the current state). Standard statistical mechanics methods are limited to spatial correlation structure with R = 1 (e.g. Ising model) whereas methods based on transfer matrices, allowing the analysis of spatio-temporal correlations, are limited to NR ≤ 20. In the first part of the thesis we propose a modified version of the transfer matrix method, based on the parallel version of the Montecarlo algorithm, allowing us to go to NR=100. In a second part we present EnaS, a C++ library with a Graphical User Interface developed for neuroscientists. EnaS offers highly interactive tools that allow users to manage data, perform empirical statistics, modeling and visualizing results. Finally, in a third part, we test our method on synthetic and real data sets. Real data set correspond to retina data provided by our partners neuroscientists. Our non-extensive analysis shows the advantages of considering spatio-temporal correlations for the analysis of retina spike trains, but it also outlines the limits of Maximum Entropy methods.

B. diazoefficiens CPAC 7 e B. japonicum CPAC 15 são estirpes brasileiras de Bradyrhizobium que apresentam grande relevância para o cultivo da soja, pois são capazes de fornecer nitrogênio para a produção desta leguminosa através do processo de fixação biológica de nitrogênio (FBN), uma técnica sustentável e de baixo custo. Por esse motivo, tais bactérias são de grande interesse, e seu estudo contribui na compreensão do processo complexo e orquestrado por um conjunto de genes específicos que culmina no estabelecimento da simbiose. A estirpe CPAC 7 possui maior eficiência em fixar N2 , e a CPAC 15 destaca-se pela sua competitividade. Recentemente, o genoma de cada uma foi sequenciado na tentativa de conhecer seu conteúdo gênico e identificar os fatores genéticos responsáveis pelas diferenças no desempenho simbiótico. Apesar de ter sido encontrado alguns rearranjos, os genoma mostraram-se sintênicos na sua maioria. Entretanto, o fato de haver muitas transposases ao redor dos genes, principalmente na ilha simbiótica, e devido a presença de muitos genes hipotéticos, representando uma limitação no conhecimento, nos motivou a realizar o presente estudo, onde exploramos estes dois genomas. Portanto, os objetivos deste estudo foram de definir a população de elementos de transposição (TEs) que compõe estes genomas, avaliar se os elementos completos podem estar impactando os genes de alguma forma; explorar as proteínas hipotéticas, tentando identificar novas funções que possam estar associadas com a interação soja-Bradyrhizobium e apontá-las para estudos experimentais futuros; e ainda explorar os genes exclusivos das regiões atípicas dos genomas, sendo que para isso, nós também desenvolvemos uma nova metodologia, baseada na máxima entropia (ME), que pode ser utilizada em novos estudos genômicos a partir da simples sequência nucleotídica. Todas as análises deste estudo foram realizadas in silico. Estudando os TEs, identificamos 33 novas sequências de inserção, sendo que algumas destacaram-se por terem potencial impacto nos genes associados com a simbiose destas bactérias, como nopAN, nopAG, rhcU, modC e hypB. Explorar as proteínas hipotéticas nos permitiu reduzir a porcentagem de hipotéticas dos genomas. Adicionamos novas informações à 1.204 proteínas, das quais muitas apresentaram similaridade com proteínas comprovadamente associadas com a interação planta-bactéria, em condições de simbiose e/ou patogenicidade, como proteínas envolvidas na motilidade e adesão celular, fatores de virulência, proteínas secretoras e efetoras, entre outras. Além disso, a metodologia ME, desenvolvida neste estudo com o intuito de direcionar análises genômicas para regiões atípicas, quando comparada com outras ferramentas existentes, mostrou-se superior em termos de eficiência e tempo de execução computacional. Nas regiões genômicas apontadas pela ME nos dois genomas de interesse, identificamos 269 genes exclusivos de CPAC 7 e 368 de CPAC 15, sendo que destacamos aqueles com potencial relação com as diferenças simbióticas das estirpes, como o gene fixW, noeE, rtxA e nex18. Assim, os resultados obtidos neste trabalho vêm expandir nosso conhecimento sobre os genomas destas estirpes. Destacando ainda, importantes diferenças que podem estar associadas com a habilidade simbiótica de cada bactéria. / B. diazoefficiens CPAC 7 and B. japonicum CPAC 15 are Brazilian Bradyrhizobium strains of great importance for soybean cultivation, since when in a symbiotic state they provide nitrogen for the crop through the biological nitrogen fixation process (BNF), a sustainable technique and low cost. For this reason, such bacteria represent great interest and have been widely studied, once the symbiotic establishment is a complex process and orchestrated by a specific set of genes. The CPAC 7 strain has a higher efficiency to fix N2 , while CPAC 15 stands out for its competitiveness. Recently, their genomes were sequenced in an attempt to gain knowledge about their gene content and to identify the genetic factors responsible for differences in their symbiotic performance. Despite having identified some rearrangements, the majority of genomes showed syntenic. However, the fact that there are many transposases around the genes, especially in symbiotic island, and due to the presence of many hypothetical genes, representing a limitation on knowledge, motivated us to conduct this study, which explored these two important genomes. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to define the population of transposable elements (TEs) present in these genomes and to verify whether such TEs could be impacting the genes somehow; to study the hypothetical proteins, trying to identify new features that may be associated with the soybean-Bradyrhizobium interaction and point them for future experimental studies; and to explore the exclusive genes from atypical regions of both genomes, and for that, we have also developed a new methodology, based on maximum entropy (ME), which can be used in new genomic studies. All analyzes in this study were performed in silico. Studying the TEs, we identified 33 new insertion sequences, and some stood out for having potential impact on genes associated with the symbiosis of these bacteria, such as nopAN, nopAG, rhcU, modC and hypB. As a consequence of improving the annotation of hypothetical proteins we were able to reduce the hypothetical percentage. Among these, we add new information to 1,204 proteins, many of which had similarity to proteins with involvement in the plant-bacteria interaction, in symbiosis and/or pathogenicity conditions, such as proteins involved in cell motility and adhesion, virulence factors, secretion proteins, effectors, among others. Moreover, the ME methodology developed in this study to direct genomic analysis to atypical regions, compared with other existing tools, it was superior in efficiency and execution time. In the genomic regions identified by the ME in both Bradyrhizobium genomes, we identified 269 exclusive genes of CPAC 7 and 368 of CPAC 15, we highlighted those with potential involvement with symbiotic differences of strains, as fixW, noeE, rtxA and nex18. Thus, the results obtained in this study come to expand our knowledge about the genomes of these important bacteria. Finally, differences were identified as potential targets to be associated with the symbiotic ability of each strain to be futher studied.

O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver uma plataforma para anotação e classificação automática de entidades nomeadas para notícias escritas em português do Brasil. Para restringir um pouco o escopo do treinamento e análise foram utilizadas notícias esportivas do Campeonato Paulista de 2011 do portal UOL (Universo Online). O primeiro artefato desenvolvido desta plataforma foi a ferramenta WebCorpus. Esta tem como principal intuito facilitar o processo de adição de metainformações a palavras através do uso de uma interface rica web, elaborada para deixar o trabalho ágil e simples. Desta forma as entidades nomeadas das notícias são anotadas e classificadas manualmente. A base de dados foi alimentada pela ferramenta de aquisição e extração de conteúdo desenvolvida também para esta plataforma. O segundo artefato desenvolvido foi o córpus UOLCP2011 (UOL Campeonato Paulista 2011). Este córpus foi anotado e classificado manualmente através do uso da ferramenta WebCorpus utilizando sete tipos de entidades: pessoa, lugar, organização, time, campeonato, estádio e torcida. Para o desenvolvimento do motor de anotação e classificação automática de entidades nomeadas foram utilizadas três diferentes técnicas: maximização de entropia, índices invertidos e métodos de mesclagem das duas técnicas anteriores. Para cada uma destas foram executados três passos: desenvolvimento do algoritmo, treinamento utilizando técnicas de aprendizado de máquina e análise dos melhores resultados. / The main target of this research is to develop an automatic named entity classification tool to sport news written in Brazilian Portuguese. To reduce this scope, during training and analysis only sport news about São Paulo Championship of 2011 written by UOL2 (Universo Online) was used. The first artefact developed was the WebCorpus tool, which aims to make easier the process of add meta informations to words, through a rich web interface. Using this, all the corpora news are tagged manually. The database used by this tool was fed by the crawler tool, also developed during this research. The second artefact developed was the corpora UOLCP2011 (UOL Campeonato Paulista 2011). This corpora was manually tagged using the WebCorpus tool. During this process, seven classification concepts were used: person, place, organization, team, championship, stadium and fans. To develop the automatic named entity classification tool, three different approaches were analysed: maximum entropy, inverted index and merge tecniques using both. Each approach had three steps: algorithm development, training using machine learning tecniques and best score analysis.

Grâce aux progrès des techniques de séquençage, les bases de données génomiques ont connu une croissance exponentielle depuis la fin des années 1990. Un grand nombre d'outils statistiques ont été développés à l'interface entre bioinformatique, apprentissage automatique et physique statistique, dans le but d'extraire de l'information de ce déluge de données. Plusieurs approches de physique statistique ont été récemment introduites dans le contexte précis de la modélisation de séquences de protéines, dont l'analyse en couplages directs. Cette méthode d'inférence statistique globale fondée sur le principe d'entropie maximale, s'est récemment montrée d'une efficacité redoutable pour prédire la structure tridimensionnelle de protéines, à partir de considérations purement statistiques.Dans cette thèse, nous présentons les méthodes d'inférence en question, et encouragés par leur succès, explorons d'autres domaines complexes dans lesquels elles pourraient être appliquées, comme la détection d'homologies. Contrairement à la prédiction des contacts entre résidus qui se limite à une information topologique sur le réseau d'interactions, ces nouveaux champs d'application exigent des considérations énergétiques globales et donc un modèle plus quantitatif et détaillé. À travers une étude approfondie sur des donnéesartificielles et biologiques, nous proposons une meilleure interpretation des paramètres centraux de ces méthodes d'inférence, jusqu'ici mal compris, notamment dans le cas d'un échantillonnage limité. Enfin, nous présentons une nouvelle procédure plus précise d'inférence de modèles génératifs, qui mène à des avancées importantes pour des données réelles en quantité limitée. / Over the last decades, genomic databases have grown exponentially in size thanks to the constant progress of modern DNA sequencing. A large variety of statistical tools have been developed, at the interface between bioinformatics, machine learning, and statistical physics, to extract information from these ever increasing datasets. In the specific context of protein sequence data, several approaches have been recently introduced by statistical physicists, such as direct-coupling analysis, a global statistical inference method based on the maximum-entropy principle, that has proven to be extremely effective in predicting the three-dimensional structure of proteins from purely statistical considerations.In this dissertation, we review the relevant inference methods and, encouraged by their success, discuss their extension to other challenging fields, such as sequence folding prediction and homology detection. Contrary to residue-residue contact prediction, which relies on an intrinsically topological information about the network of interactions, these fields require global energetic considerations and therefore a more quantitative and detailed model. Through an extensive study on both artificial and biological data, we provide a better interpretation of the central inferred parameters, up to now poorly understood, especially in the limited sampling regime. Finally, we present a new and more precise procedure for the inference of generative models, which leads to further improvements on real, finitely sampled data.

使用母數統計方法（Parametric Tests）分析資料時，常需滿足常態假設，但實際得到的資料卻少有常態，因此研究違反常態假設對統計量所造成影響的強韌性研究（Robustness Research）在應用統計方法上是重要的研究主題。在進行此類研究時，常使用蒙地卡羅法（Monte Carlo Method）產生非常態之資料進一步進行研究，目前雖已有多個可產生非常態連續資料的方法被提出，但心理學研究之資 料卻多為間斷資料。而在產生非常態間斷資料時，除難以產生指定參數之間斷分配外，亦有無限多組具同樣參數之間斷分配可供選擇。針對以上兩困難，本研究提出可使用最大資訊熵程序估計符合指定參數之單變數間斷分配，用以產生對應之單變數間斷資料。最大資訊熵方法可所估出之間斷最大資訊熵分配除為符合指定參數時最常出現之分配以外，同時具有平滑、非必要無0 機率等特性。本研究呈現指定4 參數（平均數、變異數、偏態及峰度）與指定2 參數（偏態及峰度） 之最大資訊熵方法，及相對應之R 套件，並以R 套件對此2 方法進行探討評估。結果發現本研究所提出之二方法，在要求指定參數與估計參數之誤差均不超過 .001 時，均可估計出符合指定參數之可能組合之分配，顯示此二方法可精確產生指定參數之間斷分配。而本研究所提供之R 套件，除可在輸入點數、指定參數後產生間斷分配，亦可輸入指定樣本數目及樣本數於此間斷分配中抽取樣本，使此二方法於使用蒙地卡羅法進行間斷資料之強韌性研究時，更易於使用。 / When conducting the robustness researches about normality assumption with Monte Carlo method, a procedure for simulating non-normal data is needed. Some procedures for simulating the non-normal continuous data have been proposed, but the discrete data of ordered categorized variables (e.g., Likert-Type scale) are what we met mostly in practice. To estimate the discrete probability distribution precisely and choose one from infinite discrete probability distributions with the same constraints are 2 difficulties encountered on discrete data simulating process. Therefore, the research purposed a procedure called Maximum Entropy Procedure (MEP) which simulates the univariate discrete maximum entropy distribution with the specified parameters. The distribution is the one with greatest number with the specified parameters, most unlikely probability distribution with 0 probability and smoothest. The characteristics make the MEP a reasonable and considerable choice on simulating univariate discrete data with specified parameters. The MEP-4 (constraints on mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis), the MEP-2 (constraints on skewness and kurtosis) and the corresponding R packages which could estimate the univariate discrete distributions with the specified parameters are presented, evaluated and discussed in this research. It shows that the MEP-4 and MEP-2 are able to estimate the discrete probability distributions precisely with possible combinations of specified parameters with all differences are smaller than .001 and thus useful for robustness researches. The R packages presented in this study are easily to estimate the discrete probability distributions with specified parameters and generate data from these distributions with specified number of samples and sample size. Therefore the MEP-4 and MEP-2 could be easily implemented for generating discrete data with the specified parameters through the corresponding R package and thus useful for Monte Carlo method of robustness researches.

No description available.

No description available.

An investigation into the impact of generalised maximum entropy solutions on the study of queues with or without arrival balking and their applications to congestion management in communication networks Keywords: Queues, Balking, Maximum Entropy (ME) Principle, Global Balance (GB), Queue Length Distribution (QLD), Generalised Geometric (GGeo), Generalised Exponential (GE), Generalised Discrete Half Normal (GdHN), Congestion Management, Packet Dropping Policy (PDP) Generalisations to links between discrete least biased (i.e. maximum entropy (ME)) distribution inferences and Markov chains are conjectured towards the performance modelling, analysis and prediction of general, single server queues with or without arrival balking. New ME solutions, namely the generalised discrete Half Normal (GdHN) and truncated GdHN (GdHNT) distributions are characterised, subject to appropriate mean value constraints, for inferences of stationary discrete state probability distributions. Moreover, a closed form global balance (GB) solution is derived for the queue length distribution (QLD) of the M/GE/1/K queue subject to extended Morse balking, characterised by a Poisson prospective arrival process, i.i.d. generalised exponential (GE) service times and finite capacity, K. In this context, based on comprehensive numerical experimentation, the latter GB solution is conjectured to be a special case of the GdHNT ME distribution. ii Owing to the appropriate operational properties of the M/GE/1/K queue subject to extended Morse balking, this queueing system is applied as an ME performance model of Internet Protocol (IP)-based communication network nodes featuring static or dynamic packet dropping congestion management schemes. A performance evaluation study in terms of the model’s delay is carried out. Subsequently, the QLD’s of the GE/GE/1/K censored queue subject to extended Morse balking under three different composite batch balking and batch blocking policies are solved via the technique of GB. Following comprehensive numerical experimentation, the latter QLD’s are also conjectured to be special cases of the GdHNT. Limitations of this work and open problems which have arisen are included after the conclusions.