Com a transição epidemiológica no Brasil, as doenças crônicas passaram a ser responsáveis pelo maior número de óbitos entre homens e mulheres. Entre os componentes que definem o estado de saúde humana, alguns do contexto geográfico, como clima local e fatores socioeconômicos, parecem influenciar na mortalidade por doenças do aparelho circulatório, tais como no acidente cerebral vascular (AVC) e na embolia pulmonar (EP). O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi verificar a influência do contexto geográfico (variáveis meteorológicas, índice climático e fatores socioeconômicos) na mortalidade por doenças do aparelho circulatório (AVC e EP) no município de São Paulo, no período de 2002 a 2011. Para analisar a associação da mortalidade com as variáveis meteorológicas foi utilizado um modelo linear generalizado empregando-se o método de Poisson e os modelos de lags distribuídos. Espacialmente a associação da mortalidade com as variáveis socioeconômicas foram testadas utilizando-se os modelos de regressão espacial OLS e GWR. Como resultado encontramos que tanto o frio quanto o calor são fatores de risco para todos os tipos de AVC e EP, com risco maior dependendo do tipo em homens e mulheres. Espacialmente os valores mais elevados do risco relativo (RR) da mortalidade por AVC estavam concentrados nas regiões periféricas do municipio de São Paulo, o que coincidiu com as áreas de menor renda per capita e vegetação e maior porcentagem de população preta. Já com relação à distribuição espacial dos altos valores de RR por EP esses estavam presentes principalmente na região central do município. Concluindo, a nossa pesquisa gerou grande quantidade de resultados que mostram que tanto as variáveis ambientais como socioeconômicas têm influência na mortalidade por algumas doenças do aparelho circulatório. Tendo em vista que o atendimento de urgência para os casos de AVC e EP pode evitar óbitos e sequelas graves, a melhor compreensão da importância do contexto geográfico pode permitir o desenvolvimento de sistemas de alertas junto aos serviços de atendimento de urgência e o direcionamento de campanhas para a prevenção dos fatores de risco evitáveis. / With the epidemiological transition in Brazil, chronic diseases are now responsible for more deaths among men and women. Among the components that define the state of human health, some geographical context, as local climate and socioeconomic factors appear to influence the mortality from circulatory diseases, such as in stroke and pulmonary embolism (PE). The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the geographical context (meteorological variables, climate index and socioeconomic factors) in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (stroke and PE) in São Paulo, between 2002 to 2011. In order to analyze the association of mortality with the meteorological variables we used a generalized linear model using the Poisson distribution and distributed lag non linear models. Spatially the association of mortality with socioeconomic variables were tested using the spatial regression models OLS and GWR. As a result we found that both the cold and the heat are risk factors for all types of stroke and PE with a higher risk depending on the type of men and women. Spatially the highest values of relative risk (RR) for stroke mortality were concentrated in the outskirts of the city of São Paulo, which coincided with areas of lower per capita income and vegetation and higher percentage of black population. In relation to spatial distribution of high values of RR PE by these were present mainly in the inner area. In conclusion, our research has generated a lot of results that show that both environmental and socioeconomic variables influence on mortality from some diseases of the circulatory system. In view of the urgent care for stroke and PE cases can avoid serious sequelae and deaths, a better understanding of the importance of geographic context may allow the development of warning systems at the urgent care services and targeting campaigns for the prevention of avoidable risk factors.

A utilização de secadores de produtos agrícolas é oportuna às necessidades do pequeno produtor rural, pois o produto desidratado possui maior valor agregado em relação ao mesmo produto fresco, requer menor espaço de armazenamento e tem maior durabilidade. É necessário, no entanto, oferecer ao produtor familiar equipamentos economicamente viáveis e, se possível, que utilizem recursos naturais e renováveis como fonte de energia, aliando sustentabilidade e crescimento econômico. Diante disso, os objetivos foram estudar o comportamento da temperatura e da umidade relativa do ar no interior de um secador solar misto de ventilação natural em função das condições meteorológicas externas, e os períodos e épocas do ano mais ou menos favoráveis ao processo de secagem, em função da combinação das variáveis meteorológicas. Pode-se concluir que nem sempre elevados valores de radiação resultam em elevados valores de temperatura dentro do secador. Dias nublados e, principalmente chuvosos, comprometem mais o desempenho do secador do que, por exemplo, as perdas térmicas decorrentes da velocidade do vento que o circunda. O secador cumpre o papel de manter sua temperatura maior que a temperatura externa, predominantemente, entre 06h e 18h, enquanto que no restante do dia o comportamento da temperatura e da umidade relativa, dentro e fora do equipamento, assemelha-se. Períodos com elevada incidência solar e pouca chuva são os mais favoráveis à secagem. No entanto, é possível que meses de inverno e de pouca chuva tenham melhor desempenho do que meses situados ou próximos do verão que possuam dias nublados e chuvosos constantemente. / The use of dryers to dehydrate agricultural products is appropriate to the needs of small farmers, because the dehydrated product has higher added value compared to the fresh ones, requires less storage space and lasts longer. It is necessary, however, offer to the small farmer economically viable equipment and, if possible, using natural and renewable energy sources , combining sustainability and economic growth. Therefore, the objectives were to study the behaviour of temperature and relative humidity inside a mixed-mode solar dryer with natural ventilation due to external weather conditions. And also the periods more or less favorable to the drying process, depending on the combination of meteorological variables. It was concluded that not always higher solar radiation results in higher temperature values inside the dryer. Cloudy and mainly rainy days may disturb the performance of the dryer, more than, for example, thermal losses due to the wind speed surrounding it. The data showed also that It was possible for the dryer to maintain its temperature higher than the outside temperature, predominantly between 06h and 18 h, while in the rest of the day the behaviour of temperature and relative humidity inside and outside of the equipment, resembles. Periods of high sunlight intensity and little rain are the most favorable to drying. However, winter months with little rain may present better performance than months situated near or in the summer but having cloudy and rain constantly.

Os centros operacionais e de pesquisa em previsão numérica do tempo geralmente trabalham com uma grande quantidade de dados complexos multivariados, tendo que interpretá-los num curto espaço de tempo. Técnicas de visualização científica podem ser utilizadas para ajudar a entender o comportamento atmosférico. Este trabalho descreve a arquitetura e as facilidades apresentadas pelo sistema VisualMet, que foi implementado com base em um estudo das tarefas desenvolvidas pelos meteorologistas responsáveis pelo 8º Distrito de Meteorologia, em Porto Alegre. Este centro coleta dados meteorológicos três vezes ao dia, de 32 estações locais, e recebe dados similares do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, localizado em Brasília, e do National Meteorological Center, localizado nos Estados Unidos. Tais dados são resultados de observações de variáveis tais como temperatura, pressão, velocidade do vento e tipos de nuvens. As tarefas dos meteorologistas e as classes de dados foram observadas e analisadas para definir as características do sistema. A arquitetura e a implementação do VisualMet seguem, respectivamente, uma abordagem orientada a ferramentas e o paradigma de programação orientada a objetos. Dados obtidos das estações meteorológicas são instancias de uma classe chamada "Entidade". Três outras classes de objetos representando ferramentas que suportam as tarefas dos meteorologistas foram modeladas. Os objetos no sistema são apresentados ao usuário através de duas janelas, "Base de Entidades" e " Base de Ferramentas". A implementação da "Base de Ferramentas" inclui ferramentas de mapeamento (para produzir mapas de contorno, mapas de ícones e gráficos), ferramentas de armazenamento (para guardar e recuperar imagens geradas pelo sistema) e uma ferramenta de consulta (para ler valores de variáveis de estações selecionadas). E dada especial atenção a ferramenta de mapa de contorno, onde foi utilizado o método Multiquádrico para interpolação de dados. O trabalho apresenta ainda um estudo sobre métodos de interpolação de dados esparsos, antes de descrever detalhadamente os resultados obtidos com a ferramenta de mapa de contorno. Estes resultados (imagens) são discutidos e comparados com mapas gerados manualmente por meteorologistas do 8º Distrito de Meteorologia. Possíveis extensões do presente trabalho são também abordadas. / The weather forecast centers deal with a great volume of complex multivariate data, which usually have to be understood within short time. Scientific visualization techniques can be used to support both daily forecasting and meteorological research. This work reports the architecture and facilities of a system, named VisualMet, that was implemented based on a case study of the tasks accomplished by the meteorologists responsible for the 8th Meteorological District, in the South of Brazil. This center collects meteorological data three times a day from 32 local stations and receives similar data from both the National Institute of Meteorology, located in Brasilia, and National Meteorological Center, located in the United States of America. Such data result from observation of variables like temperature, pressure, wind velocity, and type of clouds. The tasks of meteorologists and the classes of application data were observed to define system requirements. The architecture and implementation of Visual- Met follow the tool-oriented approach and object-oriented paradigm, respectively. Data taken from meteorological stations are instances of a class named Entity. Three other classes of tools which support the meteorologists' tasks are modeled. Objects in the system are presented to the user through two windows, "Entities Base" and "Tools Base". Current implementation of the "Tools Base" contains mapping tools (to produce contour maps, icons maps and graphs), recording tools (to save and load images generated by the system) and a query tool (to read variables values of selected stations). The results of applying the multiquadric method to interpolate data for the construction of contour maps are also discussed. Before describing the results obtained with the multiquadric method, this work also presents a study on interpolation methods for scattered data. The results (images) obtained with the contour map tool are discussed and compared with the maps drawn by the meteorologists of the 8th Meteorological District. Possible extensions to this work are also presented.

<p>Visualization is the process of constructing methods, which are able to synthesize interesting and informative images from data sets, to simplify the process of interpreting the data. In this thesis a new approach to construct meteorological visualization methods using neural network technology is described. The methods are trained with examples instead of explicitely designing the appearance of the visualization.</p><p>This approach is exemplified using two applications. In the fist the problem to compute an image of the sky for dynamic weather, that is taking account of the current weather state, is addressed. It is a complicated problem to tie the appearance of the sky to a weather state. The method is trained with weather data sets and images of the sky to be able to synthesize a sky image for arbitrary weather conditions. The method has been trained with various kinds of weather and images data. The results show that this is a possible method to construct weather visaualizations, but more work remains in characterizing the weather state and further refinement is required before the full potential of the method can be explored. This approach would make it possible to synthesize sky images of dynamic weather using a fast and efficient empirical method.</p><p>In the second application the problem of computing synthetic satellite images form numerical forecast data sets is addressed. In this case a mode is trained with preclassified satellite images and forecast data sets to be able to synthesize a satellite image representing arbitrary conditions. The resulting method makes it possible to visualize data sets from numerical weather simulations using synthetic satellite images, but could also be the basis for algorithms based on a preliminary cloud classification.</p> / Report code: LiU-Tek-Lic-2004:66.

Cloud reflectivity is a function of cloud liquid water content and droplet number concentration. Since cloud droplets form around pre-existing aerosol particles, cloud droplet number concentration depends on the availability of particles that can serve as cloud condensation nuclei. Given constant liquid water amount, increased availability of cloud condensation nuclei leads to clouds with a greater droplet number concentration, greater total droplet surface area and consequently, greater reflectivity. The change in cloud reflectivity resulting from the increased availability of condensation nuclei is known as the aerosol indirect effect. The aerosol indirect effect ranks as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in current estimates of global climate change, largely due to difficulties in measurement. Changes in cloud reflectivity resulting from the aerosol indirect effect are typically much smaller than the natural background variability observed in clouds. As a result, the modification signal is very difficult to detect against the background noise. Additionally, since atmospheric aerosols are ubiquitous, it is difficult to find polluted and nonpolluted clouds that are sufficiently alike for reasonable comparison. However, ship tracks seen in satellite images present one opportunity to study the aerosol indirect effect in relative isolation. Ship tracks are regions of enhanced reflectivity in marine stratus, resulting from the addition of aerosols from ship exhaust plumes to preexisting clouds. Ship tracks are a common feature of satellite images of the North Pacific. Since the marine atmosphere has comparatively low background aerosol concentrations, the addition of ship exhaust particles can lead to distinct increases in cloud reflectivity. Ship tracks allow for sampling of polluted and nonpolluted clouds from adjacent regions with similar solar and viewing geometry, cloud temperatures and surface properties, and consequently provide a unique opportunity to study the effects of aerosol modification of cloud reflectivity. Using satellite images of the North Pacific in July 1999, over 1000 ship tracks were identified, logged and analyzed, yielding 504 sets of radiance data matching polluted clouds with nearby nonpolluted clouds. It was expected that increasing the size of the region for selection of nonpolluted clouds would increase the variability in observed reflectivity, and make detection of the modification signal more difficult. In order to study this potential effect of domain size for selection of nonpolluted clouds on measurements of the aerosol indirect effect, three data sets were collected, using domain sizes for selection of nonpolluted clouds of 15, 50 and 100 km. Analysis of retrieved optical depth and droplet effective radius for modified and control pixels shows evidence of a 1-5% increase in visible optical depth of marine stratus following modification by addition of ship exhaust particles, but unexpectedly, shows only slight increases in uncertainty with increasing domain size. A subsequent study revealed that autocorrelation lengths of radiances and retrieved cloud properties were only 8-15 km. This indicates that even the 15 km control domain captured much of the background variability present. Domain sizes smaller than 15 km are difficult to sample automatically while avoiding the inclusion of polluted clouds in the nonpolluted cloud sample. As a result, it remains necessary to analyze large numbers of ship tracks to separate the aerosol modification signal from the background variability. / Graduation date: 2003

Ambient high-volume (hi-vol) air samples were collected between March 15th and May 30th 2002, at Cheeka Peak Observatory (CPO), located on the tip of the Olympic Peninsula, Washington State. This sampling campaign was in conjunction with the 2002 Inter-Continental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT 2K2) Campaign and the Photochemical Ozone Budget of the Eastern North Pacific Atmosphere (PHOEBA2) experiment, both of which studied the effect of Trans-Pacific transport on the U.S. West Coast. The anthropogenic semi-volatile organic compounds (SOCs) measured during this time period included polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and various U.S. current-use and historical-use pesticides. The total PAH concentration ranged from 0.480-4.49 ng/m³, which is comparable to other remote sites throughout the globe. Ten pesticides (hexachlorobenzene, dacthal, chlorothalonil, heptachlor, trans-nonachlor, cis-nonachlor, endosulfan I, triallate, trifluralin, and mirex) were also measured and their concentrations (0.104-57.0 pg/m³) were comparable to other remote sites and less than agricultural areas. Gas-phase/particle-phase partitioning of SOCs was explored, with a significant correlation with temperature found for endosulfan I and retene. A possible relationship at CPO of low total suspended particulate (TSP) concentration with the concentration of non-exchangeable SOCs in the particle phase was found. Principal Component Analysis, as well as a t-test, showed there were elevated concentrations and a unique pattern of anthropogenic SOCs measured during possible Trans-Pacific events on March 15th-16th March 27th-28th and April 22nd-23rd, 2002. These Trans-Pacific events were identified using the GEOS-CHEM model and 10-day back air trajectories. The potential sources of these compounds at CPO were determined using diagnostic ratios of their concentrations, back trajectories calculated using HYSPLIT4, local meteorological conditions, and U.S. pesticide use data. / Graduation date: 2004

This study aims to investigate the influence of air pollutant concentration and meteorological factors on the atmospheric visibility in Taipei basin. First of all, we collected air quality data measured by ambient air quality monitoring stations of EPA (Environmental Protection Administration) and the meteorological factors monitored by Tamsui and Taipei meteorological stations separately, based on the range of three observation directions. We then analyzed the data by PCA (principal component analysis) to determine the main effective factors on atmospheric visibility under low visibility condition. In order to comprehend the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric visibility, we collected the atmospheric visibility data from Taipei meteorological observation stations for the past twenty-two years (1984~2005), it showed that the atmospheric visibility increased gradually. The seasonal variation of visibility was also observed, the best season was autumn (10.7 km) and the worst season was spring (7.5 km). Furthermore, according to the monthly statistical results, the visibility trends in the Taipei Basin can be separated into three typical periods: low visibility period (January to May), transitional period (June to September), high visibility period (October to December). The average atmospheric visibilities observed at the Tamsui, Songshan, and Sindian directions were 10.66 km , 9.54 km and 8.44 km, respectively. In general, the visibility at the Tamsui direction was slightly higher than those from other two directions. The results showed that atmospheric visibility was influenced not only by air pollutant levels and meteorological factors, but also affected by local topography of Taipei Basin. This study revealed that the atmospheric visibility data led on the Tamsui, Songshan observation directions is better. Four intensive observations of atmospheric visibility were conducted during March 28~April 1, July 4~8, September 19~23, and November 14~18 in the year of 2006, respectively. The results showed that the atmospheric visibilities at Tamsui direction were generally higher than other two directions. The visibilities observed in the afternoon were generally higher than those in the morning. Results obtained from the principle component analysis showed that the atmospheric visibility in the Taipei Basin were mainly influenced by PM10, NOx and CO, that mobile sources was the main cause of low visibility in the Taipei Basin. In addition, Tamsui region were affected by PM10 and SO2 more than Songshan and Sindian regions, which was influenced by neighboring industrial and the power plants. In the meteorological factors, wind speed and temperature have more influence on atmospheric visibility, however, the relationship between atmospheric visibility and relative humidity was somehow irregular. The analysis of the spatial distribution of air pollutants showed that low visibilities can not be caused only by high air pollutant concentration within the region, it may caused by the rise of air pollutant concentration in the transition region.

Crop development models are commonly used in research. However, their use as crop management tools for growers is rare. Decision support systems (DSS), which combine crop models with expert systems, are being developed to provide management assistance to growers. Researchers at Oregon State University are in the process of developing a DSS. Research was conducted to develop a computer program to provide current and generated weather data for use by the DSS. The objectives of this research were to obtain a weather station, develop a set of quality control procedures to check data from the station, obtain a weather generator program, and create a weather data manager program to implement the above objectives. A weather station was obtained and was placed near two existing weather stations for ten months. Data from the weather station was compared with the other two stations for values of monthly average maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and daily total solar radiation and monthly total precipitation. The weather station performed well. Only measurements of total daily solar radiation were consistently different from the other stations. Based on a comparison of the weather station with an Eppley pyranometer, a factor was calculated to correct the solar radiation readings. The quality control procedures used on the weather data were adapted from automated procedures given in the literature. When tested, the procedures performed as desired. When used on actual data from the weather station, values that failed the procedures were apparently legitimate values. Options were added to the data manager program that allow the user to quickly decide what to do with failed values. For a weather data generator, WGEN was chosen from the generators presented in the literature. An input parameter file was created for the Corvallis, Oregon area and thirty years of data were generated. Monthly means from this data were compared with thirty-year historical monthly means for Corvallis. Precipitation data from WGEN compared well with the historical data. The generated data for maximum and minimum temperature and daily total solar radiation had great differences from the historical data. It is believed that the input parameters for the Corvallis area suggested by the authors of WGEN are not appropriate. The weather data manager program was written in the C programming language, and occupies approximately 98 kilobytes of disk space, not including the eleven files created directly and indirectly by the program. The main functions of the program are: 1) retrieving data from the weather station and performing quality control procedures on the data (allowing the user to decide what to do with values that failed QC); 2) viewing and editing of files by the user; 3) weather data generation (creating a file of only generated data or appending generated data to the file of current data from the weather station to create a file containing a full year of weather data); and 4) miscellaneous functions (monitoring the weather station, setting the calendar in the station's datalogger, and changing information used by the data manager program). It is hoped that this program will be a significant contribution towards the development of a decision support system. / Graduation date: 1992

This thesis has two focuses. The major focus is an investigation of the nature of high-velocity ~2 km/s)ionospheric flows occasionally detected by the King Salmon SuperDARN radar at relatively low magnetic latitudes of 65^0. The second focus is a validation work on the quality of SuperDARN convection measurements. As an alternative convection-monitoring instrument, an ion drift meter onboard the DMSP satellite was chosen for comparison with SuperDARN. This study includes a broad range of velocities of up to ~1.5 km/s. Consideration of very large velocities is fundamentally important for successful research on the major topic of the thesis.<p>The validation work is performed first. Two approaches are undertaken. The first approach considers data at the raw level. SuperDARN F region line-of-sight velocities are directly compared with DMSP cross-track ion drifts in approximately the same directions. More than 200 satellite passes over the fields of view of five Northern Hemisphere and four Southern Hemisphere radars are considered. It is shown that all radars exhibit overall consistency with DMSP measurements and a linear fit line to the data has a slope of 0.8 with a tendency for SuperDARN velocities to be smaller. Radar echo range effects and the role of spatial inhomogeneity and temporal variations of the convection pattern are investigated. SuperDARN convection maps were generated for select events for which SuperDARN l-o-s data agree almost ideally with DMSP measurements.<p>Convection maps were obtained using all Northern Hemisphere SuperDARN radars. The full convection vectors were found to be in reasonable agreement with the DMSP ion drifts, although a small deterioration (~10%) was noticed. The overall agreement between SuperDARN and DMSP measurements implies SuperDARN observations are reliable for velocity magnitudes of up to ~1.5 km/s, and SuperDARN radars are suitable instruments for studying extremely fast ionospheric flows. These results also imply that radar measurements can be merged with DMSP measurements into a common data set to provide more reliable convection maps.<p>For the main focus of the thesis, a statistical investigation of the King Salmon radar echoes was performed to determine typical echo characteristics and compare them with data from other SuperDARN radars. It is shown that King Salmon regularly observes high-velocity echoes in the dusk sector at ~21:00 MLT and ~65^0 MLat. Individual events are presented with line-of-sight velocities (observed with the L-shell aligned beams) as high as 2 km/s. Statistically, the enhanced flows are the largest and cover the greatest area in the winter and are the smallest and cover the least area in the summer. Similar fast flows were discovered in the Unwin radar data (in the Southern Hemisphere, lowest magnetic latitude ~57^0) that became available near the completion time of this thesis. It is also shown that statistically, the Stokkseyri radar, which observes in the auroral zone and has a similar azimuthal orientation as King Salmon, does not observe similar high-velocity echoes. Geophysical conditions for the onset of high-velocity King Salmon flows in several individual events are then investigated. It is shown that fast flows are excited in close association with substorm progression near the King Salmon field of view. By comparing SuperDARN data with optical images obtained from the IMAGE satellite and particle data from the DMSP satellites it is shown that velocity enhancement begins at substorm onset and peaks 20-50 minutes later over a range of latitudes including the auroral and sub-auroral regions. During the substorm recovery phase, as bright aurora shifts poleward, exceptionally fast flows can be excited at the equatorial edge of the electron auroral oval and these flows can be classified as sub-auroral polarization stream (SAPS) flows. Variability of SAPS flows and their relationship to auroral oval processes are discussed. Finally, several suggestions for further research are presented.

University of Macau / Faculty of Science and Technology / Department of Computer and Information Science