Cette thèse étudie les équidistributions de zéros de sections holomorphesaléatoires de fibrés en droites pour les mesures modérées. Elle consiste en deuxparties.Dans la première partie, nous construisons une famille étendue de mesuressingulières modérées sur des espaces projectifs. Ces mesures sont générées pardes fonctions quasi-plurisousharmoniques avec les potentiels höldériens.Le deuxième partie traite une propriété d' équidistribution dans un contextegénéral. Nous établissons un théorème d'équidistribution dans le cas dequelques fibrés en droites gros munis de métriques singulières. Une vitesse deconvergence précise pour l'équidistribution est obtenue. / This thesis investigates the equidistributions of zeros of random holomorphic sections of line bundles for moderate measures. It consists of two parts. In the first part, we construct a large family of singular moderate measures on projective spaces. These measures are generated by quasi-plurisubharmonic functions with Holder potentials.The second part deals with an equidistribution property in general settings. We establish an equidistribution theorem in the case of several big line bundles endowed with singular metrics. A precise convergence speed for the equidistribution is obtained.

Transition metal interface effects of on the crystallization of carbon and silicon were investigated. The graphitization of carbon was studied by ion beam sputter deposition of atomic carbon onto a nickel surface at temperatures ranging from room temperature to 550 °C. The resulting films were characterized by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, nuclear reaction analysis combined with Rutherford backscattering spectrometry, Raman spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy. A temperature-induced and a nickel-induced effect on the graphitic ordering is demonstrated. The carbon films showed a two layered structure: directly on the nickel surface up to 8 monolayers of graphitic carbon, further deposited carbon formed less ordered structures, preferably perpendicular to the surface. The results are discussed on the basis of hyperthermal atom deposition, surface diffusion, metal-induced crystallization and dissolution-precipitation. The analysis points to a dominating role of surface diffusion-assisted crystallization in the carbon ordering process. The kinetics of silver-induced crystallization of amorphous silicon were studied in a series of isothermal annealing experiments at 350 °C, 400 °C, 450 °C and 500 °C. The annealing process was monitored in situ employing Raman spectroscopy and Rutherford backscattering spectrometry from which time resolved information on the phase transformation and hence the kinetics are obtained. The grain structure of the crystallized silicon film was investigated with optical and scanning electron microscopy which reveals grain diameters of 5 to 8 µm. The small scale crystallinity was measured with X-ray diffraction and crystal domain sizes from 20 to 50 nm were observed. The phase transformation kinetics are discussed based on the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov theory. The analysis points to a two-dimensional, diffusion limited process with fast Avrami-type nucleation and an activation energy of 0.8 eV/at.:Contents 1. Introduction 2. Metal-Induced Crystallization 2.1. Introduction and State of the Art of Metal-Induced Crystalliza-tion 2.2. Thermodynamics of Metal-Induced Crystallization 2.3. Kinetics of Metal-Induced Crystallization 3. Ion Beam Analysis 3.1. Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry 3.2. Nuclear Reaction Analysis 4. Raman Spectroscopy 4.1. Light Scattering in Solids 4.2. Theory 4.2.1. The Raman Spectrum of Graphitic Carbon 4.2.2. The Silicon Raman Spectrum 5. The Cluster Tool at the Ion Beam Center 5.1. General Concept 5.2. Sputtering Chamber 5.3. The Environmental Chamber 5.4. The Analysis Chamber 5.5. The Ion Beam Analysis Chamber 5.5.1. The Experimental Setup 6. The Carbon Nickel System 6.1. Experimental Details 6.1.1. Film growth 6.1.2. Characterization 6.2. Results 6.3. Discussion 7. The Silicon Silver System 7.1. Experimental 7.1.1. Film Preparation 7.1.2. In Situ Raman Spectroscopy 7.1.3. In Situ Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry 7.2. Results 7.2.1. Raman Spectroscopy 7.2.2. Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry 7.2.3. X-ray Diffraction 7.2.4. Optical and Scanning Electron Microscopy 7.3. Discussion 8. Conclusion and Outlook A. Appendix A.1. Spectroscopic Lineshapes A.1.1. The Lorentzian Lineshape A.1.2. The Breit-Wigner-Fano Lineshape A.1.3. The Doniach-Sunjic Lineshape A.1.4. The Gaussian Lineshape A.1.5. The Voigt Lineshape A.2. Statistcial Distribution Functions A.2.1. The Gamma Distribution Bibliography / Der Einfluss von Übergangsmetallkontaktflächen auf die Kristallisation von Kohlenstoff und Silizium wurde untersucht. Dazu wurde Kohlenstoff bei Temperaturen von Raumtemperatur bis 550 °C auf Nickel mittels Ionenstrahl-Sputtern abgeschieden. Die so erzeugten Filme wurden mit Röntgenphotoelektronen Spektroskopie, Kernreaktionsanalyse kombiniert mit Rutherford Rückstreu Spektrometrie, Raman Spektroskopie und Transmissions-Elektronenmikroskopie charakterisiert. Ein Nickel- und ein Temperatureffekt auf den Graphitisierungsprozess wird nachgewiesen. Die Kohlenstofffilme zeigten einen zweilagigen Aufbau: Direkt auf der Nickeloberfläche bis zu 8 Monolagen graphitischen Kohlenstoffs, weiterer abgeschiedener Kohlenstoff bildet weniger geordnete Strukturen, die bevorzugt senkrecht zur Oberfläche ausgerichtet sind. Die Ergebnisse werden auf Basis von hyperthermischer, atomarer Abscheidung, Oberflächendiffusion, Metall-induzierte Kristallisation und Lösung-Ausfällung diskutiert. Die Analysen deuten auf eine dominante Rolle der Oberflächendiffusion im Graphitisierungsprozess hin. Die Kinetik der Silber-induzierten Kristallisation von amorphen Silizium wurde in einer Reihe von isothermalen Temperexperimenten bei 350 °C, 400 °C, 450 °C und 500 °C untersucht. Der Tempervorgang wurde mit in situ Raman Spektroskopie und in situ Rutherford Rückstreu Spektrometrie charakterisiert, wodurch zeitaufgelöste Information über den Phasenübergang und damit die Kinetik gewonnen wurden. Das Gefüge der entstandenen Siliziumschichten wurde mit optischer und Rasterelektronenmikroskopie untersucht, welche Korndurchmesser von 5 bis 8 µm zeigten. Die Kristallinität wurde mit Röntgendiffraktometrie analysiert. Hierdurch wurden Kristallitgrößen von 20 bis 50 nm bestimmt. Die Kinetik des Phasenüberganges wird anhand der Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov Theorie diskutiert. Dies deutet auf einen zeidimensionalen, diffusionslimitierten Prozess mit schnell abklingender Avrami-Keimbildung hin. Die Aktivierungsenergie wurde zu 0.8 eV/At. bestimmt.:Contents 1. Introduction 2. Metal-Induced Crystallization 2.1. Introduction and State of the Art of Metal-Induced Crystalliza-tion 2.2. Thermodynamics of Metal-Induced Crystallization 2.3. Kinetics of Metal-Induced Crystallization 3. Ion Beam Analysis 3.1. Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry 3.2. Nuclear Reaction Analysis 4. Raman Spectroscopy 4.1. Light Scattering in Solids 4.2. Theory 4.2.1. The Raman Spectrum of Graphitic Carbon 4.2.2. The Silicon Raman Spectrum 5. The Cluster Tool at the Ion Beam Center 5.1. General Concept 5.2. Sputtering Chamber 5.3. The Environmental Chamber 5.4. The Analysis Chamber 5.5. The Ion Beam Analysis Chamber 5.5.1. The Experimental Setup 6. The Carbon Nickel System 6.1. Experimental Details 6.1.1. Film growth 6.1.2. Characterization 6.2. Results 6.3. Discussion 7. The Silicon Silver System 7.1. Experimental 7.1.1. Film Preparation 7.1.2. In Situ Raman Spectroscopy 7.1.3. In Situ Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry 7.2. Results 7.2.1. Raman Spectroscopy 7.2.2. Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry 7.2.3. X-ray Diffraction 7.2.4. Optical and Scanning Electron Microscopy 7.3. Discussion 8. Conclusion and Outlook A. Appendix A.1. Spectroscopic Lineshapes A.1.1. The Lorentzian Lineshape A.1.2. The Breit-Wigner-Fano Lineshape A.1.3. The Doniach-Sunjic Lineshape A.1.4. The Gaussian Lineshape A.1.5. The Voigt Lineshape A.2. Statistcial Distribution Functions A.2.1. The Gamma Distribution Bibliography

Der Beitrag unterteilt sich in zwei Teile: Teil 1 (vgl. Informationen/07; 1976,05) und Teil 2 (cp. Informationen/07; 1976,06). Teil 1 enthält eine Einleitung und Grenzwertsätze für unabhängige und identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen und die Übertragung der betrachteten Grenzwertsätze auf den Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente. Teil 2 enthält Grenzwertsätze für mittlere Abweichungen für Summen unabhängiger nichtidentisch verteilter Zufallsgrößen (Serienschema) und eine Diskussion der erhaltenen Ergebnisse und schließlich einige Literaturangaben. Sei F_n(x) die Verteilungsfunktion der Summe X_1+X_2+...+X_n, wobei X_1, X_2, ...,X_n unabhängige und identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen mit Erwartungswert 0 und Streuung 1 und endlichen absoluten Momenten c_m, m>2, sind, und sei Phi die standardisierte Normalverteilungsfunktion. Es werden absolute Konstanten L_i derart berechnet, dass wir Fehlerabschätzungen im unleichmäßigen zentralen Grenzwertsätzen in verschiedenen Fällen angeben können, wobei sich der Index i in L_i auf folgende fünf Fälle bezieht: kleine x, mittlere Abweichungen für x, große Abweichungen für x, kleine n und große n. Im Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente werden obere Schanken für 1-F_n(x) angegeben für x>D_m*n^(1/2)*ln(n) bzw. x>D_m*n^(1/2)*(ln(n))^(1/2), womit Ergebnisse von S.V.NAGAEV(1965) präzisiert werden. Der Beitrag unterteilt sich in zwei Teile: Teil 1 (vgl. Informationen/07; 1976,05) und Teil 2 (cp. Informationen/07; 1976,06). Teil 1 enthält eine Einleitung und Grenzwertsätze für unabhängige und identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen und die Übertragung der betrachteten Grenzwertsätze auf den Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente. Teil 2 enthält Grenzwertsätze für mittlere Abweichungen für Summen unabhängiger nichtidentisch verteilter Zufallsgrößen (Serienschema) und eine Diskussion der erhaltenen Ergebnisse und schließlich einige Literaturangaben. Sei F_n(x) die Verteilungsfunktion der Summe X_1+X_2+...+X_n, wobei X_1, X_2, ...,X_n unabhängige und identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen mit Erwartungswert 0 und Streuung 1 und endlichen absoluten Momenten c_m, m>2, sind, und sei Phi die standardisierte Normalverteilungsfunktion. Es werden absolute Konstanten L_i derart berechnet, dass wir Fehlerabschätzungen im unleichmäßigen zentralen Grenzwertsätzen in verschiedenen Fällen angeben können, wobei sich der Index i in L_i auf folgende fünf Fälle bezieht: kleine x, mittlere Abweichungen für x, große Abweichungen für x, kleine n und große n. Im Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente werden obere Schanken für 1-F_n(x) angegeben für x>D_m*n^(1/2)*ln(n) bzw. x>D_m*n^(1/2)*(ln(n))^(1/2), womit Ergebnisse von S.V.NAGAEV(1965) präzisiert werden.:6. Grenzwertsätze für mittlere Abweichungen für verschieden verteilte Zufallsgrößen S. 1 7. Beweise zum Abschnitt 6 S. 2 8. Diskussion der Ergebnisse S. 6 Literatur S. 10 / The paper is divided in two parts: part 1 (cp. Informationen/07; 1976,05) and part 2 (cp. Informationen/07; 1976,06). Part 1 contains an introduction and limit theorems for iid random variables and the transfer of the considered limit theorems to the case of the existence of onesided moments. Part 2 contains limit theorems of moderate deviations for sums of series of non iid random variables and a discussion of all obtained results in part 1 and 2 and finally some references. Let F_n(x) be the cdf of X_1+X_2+...+X_n, where X_1, X_2, ...,X_n are iid random variables with mean 0 and variance 1 and with m-th absolute moment c_m, m>2, and Phi the cdf of the unit normal law. Explicit universal constants L_i are computed such that we have an error estimate in the nonuniform central limit theorem with the L_i, where i corresponds to the five cases considered: small x, moderate deviations for x, large deviations for x, small n , large n. Additional upper bounds for 1-F_n(x) are obtained if the one-sided moments of order m, m>2, are finite and if x>D_m*n^(1/2)*ln(n) and x>D_m*n^(1/2)*(ln(n))^(1/2) respectively improving results by S.V.NAGAEV (1965).:6. Grenzwertsätze für mittlere Abweichungen für verschieden verteilte Zufallsgrößen S. 1 7. Beweise zum Abschnitt 6 S. 2 8. Diskussion der Ergebnisse S. 6 Literatur S. 10

Der Beitrag unterteilt sich in zwei Teile: Teil 1 (vgl. Informationen/07; 1976,05) und Teil 2 (cp. Informationen/07; 1976,06). Teil 1 enthält eine Einleitung und Grenzwertsätze für unabhängige und identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen und die Übertragung der betrachteten Grenzwertsätze auf den Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente. Teil 2 enthält Grenzwertsätze für mittlere Abweichungen für Summen unabhängiger nichtidentisch verteilter Zufallsgrößen (Serienschema) und eine Diskussion der erhaltenen Ergebnisse und schließlich einige Literaturangaben. Sei F_n(x) die Verteilungsfunktion der Summe X_1+X_2+...+X_n, wobei X_1, X_2, ...,X_n unabhängige und identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen mit Erwartungswert 0 und Streuung 1 und endlichen absoluten Momenten c_m, m>2, sind, und sei Phi die standardisierte Normalverteilungsfunktion. Es werden absolute Konstanten L_i derart berechnet, dass wir Fehlerabschätzungen im unleichmäßigen zentralen Grenzwertsätzen in verschiedenen Fällen angeben können, wobei sich der Index i in L_i auf folgende fünf Fälle bezieht: kleine x, mittlere Abweichungen für x, große Abweichungen für x, kleine n und große n. Im Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente werden obere Schanken für 1-F_n(x) angegeben für x>D_m*n^(1/2)*ln(n) bzw. x>D_m*n^(1/2)*(ln(n))^(1/2), womit Ergebnisse von S.V.NAGAEV(1965) präzisiert werden.:1. Einführung S. 2 2. Grenzwertsätze für identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen S. 3 3. Übertragung der formulierten Grenzwertsätze auf den Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente S. 6 4. Beweis zum Abschnitt 2 S. 8 5. Beweise zum Abschnitt 3 S. 13 / The paper is divided in two parts: part 1 (cp. Informationen/07; 1976,05) and part 2 (cp. Informationen/07; 1976,06). Part 1 contains an introduction and limit theorems for iid random variables and the transfer of the considered limit theorems to the case of the existence of onesided moments. Part 2 contains limit theorems of moderate deviations for sums of series of non iid random variables and a discussion of all obtained results in part 1 and 2 and finally some references. Let F_n(x) be the cdf of X_1+X_2+...+X_n, where X_1, X_2, ...,X_n are iid random variables with mean 0 and variance 1 and with m-th absolute moment c_m, m>2, and Phi the cdf of the unit normal law. Explicit universal constants L_i are computed such that we have an error estimate in the nonuniform central limit theorem with the L_i, where i corresponds to the five cases considered: small x, moderate deviations for x, large deviations for x, small n , large n. Additional upper bounds for 1-F_n(x) are obtained if the one-sided moments of order m, m>2, are finite and if x>D_m*n^(1/2)*ln(n) and x>D_m*n^(1/2)*(ln(n))^(1/2) respectively improving results by S.V.NAGAEV (1965).:1. Einführung S. 2 2. Grenzwertsätze für identisch verteilte Zufallsgrößen S. 3 3. Übertragung der formulierten Grenzwertsätze auf den Fall der Existenz einseitiger Momente S. 6 4. Beweis zum Abschnitt 2 S. 8 5. Beweise zum Abschnitt 3 S. 13

Populism as a phenomenon is increasing in Europe. This study is therefore centred on howpopulist parties affect mainstream parties when entering the parliament. Moreover this studyresearches how party behaviour theories such as the median voter theorem and cartel partytheory explains mainstream parties' transition on the political and ideological scale when apopulist party is included in the parliament. This study aims to identify populistic discourse in Swedish parties election manifestos. Additionally, examine if the degree of populisticdiscourse differs from the year 2010 when the populist party entered the parliament, the yearof 2018 and the year of 2022 when the populist party entered an alliance with the government.The methodical approach for this research has been a qualitative content analysis. The categories for populist communication strategy attempts to contribute with an operationalization, a measuring instrument of populism in the empirical material. Moreoverthe categories is based on Jan Jagers and Steffan Walgraves theory surrounding populism as a political communication-style. The eight units of analysis are the election manifestos of the Swedish parties: The christ democratic party, the moderate party and the sweden democrats. The empirical research shows that populism as a communication style appears within the election manifestos and that the degree of populist rhetoric differs within the mainstream parties from when the populist party entered the parliament in 2010 and government alliancein 2022.

This research explored the perception of the incorporation of ‘future-self’ for young people (YP) moving from specialist provision for children where the Local Authority have identified the provision as Moderate Learning Difficulties and additional needs, their parent/carers views, and the perspectives of professionals supporting their transition to mainstream further education. The ‘future-self’ approach had its basis in social cognitive theory, as the creation of imagined ‘future-selves’ is thought to influence an individual’s behaviour to aid them to work towards their aspired self (Baker, 2015; Markus & Nurius, 1986; Oysterman & James, 2011). Phase one used a case study methodology using semi-structured interviews to explore the YP and their parent/carer’s experience of transition planning having included the young person’s vision of their ‘future-self’, at aged 16. Materials were designed to aid their understanding using visual support. Phase two gained the views of YP using focus groups as they approach transition out of FE at aged 19 or older into continued training, employment, and on towards adulthood, in relation to inclusion of their vision of their ‘future-self’ in this preparation. This phase also explored the perceptions of the professionals for incorporating the young person’s view of their ‘future-self’ using semi-structured interviews. Interview transcripts were analysed using Braun and Clarke’s (2006) six stage thematic analysis to identify themes in the data. Focus groups were thematically analysed using Ritchie and Spencer’s (1994) five stage analysis. A number of themes were found for the YP at both stages, the parents/carers and the professionals. Findings indicated that the YP are more involved in the transition planning and a range of methods are applied to prepare the YP however there are a number of barriers still limiting the options for the YP such as: lack of choice available, protectiveness of others, low aspirations, failure to explore holistic longer term outcomes, insufficient multi-agency involvement, overreliance on parents, and the need for more effective strategic planning and awareness of the systems around the YP. The findings from this research indicate that applying a ‘future-selves’ approach for YP as a method to generate future aspirations to motivate YP’s behaviour has been effective as a tool to add to existing transition preparations. This could act as a way to overcome the currently existing poorer long term outcomes for YP with this population. Based upon this small scale project, further investigation would be required to assess the benefit for a wider population.

The aim of this action research was to investigate how auditory perceptual deficits affect reading in learners with disabilities. The sub-questions were: What auditory perceptual deficits learners’ experience? How do educators assist learners with auditory perceptual deficits? What instructional strategies and classroom management can educators apply to assist learners with auditory perceptual skills? The data collections comprised of an informal oral assessment, observation and anecdotal notes with fifteen participants with barriers to learning, from the English first year class, within a special needs educational setting. Data analysis and validity were supported by triangulation through informal assessment, observation, my critical friend and my own critical reflection. The support of phonologic, memory, and cohesion skills, auditory skills were the reading educational construct and strategies used as intervention in order to identify the efficacy of said interventions. Both bottom-up and top-down support strategies were used in relation to the participants’ individualised educational needs. The research results and discussion included methods to improve reading and listening skills in the classroom environment. / Inclusive Education / M. Ed. (Inclusive Education)

Le contrôle explicite de la convergence des sommes convenablement normalisées de variables aléatoires, ainsi que l'étude du principe de déviations modérées associé à ces sommes constituent les thèmes centraux de cette thèse. Nous étudions principalement deux types de processus. Premièrement, nous nous intéressons aux processus indexés par un arbre binaire, aléatoire ou non. Ces processus ont été introduits dans la littérature afin d'étudier le mécanisme de la division cellulaire. Au chapitre 2, nous étudions les chaînes de Markov bifurcantes. Ces chaînes peuvent être vues comme une adaptation des chaînes de Markov "usuelles'' dans le cas où l'ensemble des indices à une structure binaire. Sous des hypothèses d'ergodicité géométrique uniforme et non-uniforme d'une chaîne de Markov induite, nous fournissons des inégalités de déviations et un principe de déviations modérées pour les chaînes de Markov bifurcantes. Au chapitre 3, nous nous intéressons aux processus bifurcants autorégressifs d'ordre p (). Ces processus sont une adaptation des processus autorégressifs linéaires d'ordre p dans le cas où l'ensemble des indices à une structure binaire. Nous donnons des inégalités de déviations, ainsi qu'un principe de déviations modérées pour les estimateurs des moindres carrés des paramètres "d'autorégression'' de ce modèle. Au chapitre 4, nous traitons des inégalités de déviations pour des chaînes de Markov bifurcantes sur un arbre de Galton-Watson. Ces chaînes sont une généralisation de la notion de chaînes de Markov bifurcantes au cas où l'ensemble des indices est un arbre de Galton-Watson binaire. Elles permettent dans le cas de la division cellulaire de prendre en compte la mort des cellules. Les hypothèses principales que nous faisons dans ce chapitre sont : l'ergodicité géométrique uniforme d'une chaîne de Markov induite et la non-extinction du processus de Galton-Watson associé. Au chapitre 5, nous nous intéressons aux modèles autorégressifs linéaires d'ordre 1 ayant des résidus corrélés. Plus particulièrement, nous nous concentrons sur la statistique de Durbin-Watson. La statistique de Durbin-Watson est à la base des tests de Durbin-Watson, qui permettent de détecter l'autocorrélation résiduelle dans des modèles autorégressifs d'ordre 1. Nous fournissons un principe de déviations modérées pour cette statistique. Les preuves du principe de déviations modérées des chapitres 2, 3 et 4 reposent essentiellement sur le principe de déviations modérées des martingales. Les inégalités de déviations sont établies principalement grâce à l'inégalité d'Azuma-Bennet-Hoeffding et l'utilisation de la structure binaire des processus. Le chapitre 5 est né de l'importance qu'a l'ergodicité explicite des chaînes de Markov au chapitre 3. L'ergodicité géométrique explicite des processus de Markov à temps discret et continu ayant été très bien étudiée dans la littérature, nous nous sommes penchés sur l'ergodicité sous-exponentielle des processus de Markov à temps continu. Nous fournissons alors des taux explicites pour la convergence sous exponentielle d'un processus de Markov à temps continu vers sa mesure de probabilité d'équilibre. Les hypothèses principales que nous utilisons sont : l'existence d'une fonction de Lyapunov et d'une condition de minoration. Les preuves reposent en grande partie sur la construction du couplage et le contrôle explicite de la queue du temps de couplage. / The explicit control of the convergence of properly normalized sums of random variables, as well as the study of moderate deviation principle associated with these sums constitute the main subjects of this thesis. We mostly study two sort of processes. First, we are interested in processes labelled by binary tree, random or not. These processes have been introduced in the literature in order to study mechanism of the cell division. In Chapter 2, we study bifurcating Markov chains. These chains may be seen as an adaptation of "usual'' Markov chains in case the index set has a binary structure. Under uniform and non-uniform geometric ergodicity assumptions of an embedded Markov chain, we provide deviation inequalities and a moderate deviation principle for the bifurcating Markov chains. In chapter 3, we are interested in p-order bifurcating autoregressive processes (). These processes are an adaptation of $p$-order linear autoregressive processes in case the index set has a binary structure. We provide deviation inequalities, as well as an moderate deviation principle for the least squares estimators of autoregressive parameters of this model. In Chapter 4, we dealt with deviation deviation inequalities for bifurcating Markov chains on Galton-Watson tree. These chains are a generalization of the notion of bifurcating Markov chains in case the index set is a binary Galton-Watson tree. They allow, in case of cell division, to take into account cell's death. The main hypothesis that we do in this chapter are : uniform geometric ergodicity of an embedded Markov chain and the non-extinction of the associated Galton-Watson process. In Chapter 5, we are interested in first-order linear autoregressive models with correlated errors. More specifically, we focus on the Durbin-Watson statistic. The Durbin-Watson statistic is at the base of Durbin-Watson tests, which allow to detect serial correlation in the first-order autoregressive models. We provide a moderate deviation principle for this statistic. The proofs of moderate deviation principle of Chapter 2, 3 and 4 are essentially based on moderate deviation for martingales. To establish deviation inequalities, we use most the Azuma-Bennet-Hoeffding inequality and the binary structure of processes. Chapter 6 was born from the importance that explicit ergodicity of Markov chains has in Chapter 2. Since explicit geometric ergodicity of discrete and continuous time Markov processes has been well studied in the literature, we focused on the sub-exponential ergodicity of continuous time Markov Processes. We thus provide explicit rates for the sub-exponential convergence of a continuous time Markov process to its stationary distribution. The main hypothesis that we use are : existence of a Lyapunov fonction and of a minorization condition. The proofs are largely based on the coupling construction and the explicit control of the tail of the coupling time.

Cette thèse est dévolue à l'étude de certaines propriétés asymptotiques du processus autorégressif d'ordre p. Ce dernier qualifie communément une suite aléatoire $(Y_{n})$ définie sur $\dN$ ou $\dZ$ et entièrement décrite par une combinaison linéaire de ses $p$ valeurs passées, perturbée par un bruit blanc $(\veps_{n})$. Tout au long de ce mémoire, nous traitons deux problématiques majeures de l'étude de tels processus : l'\textit{autocorrélation résiduelle} et la \textit{stationnarité}. Nous proposons en guise d'introduction un survol nécessaire des propriétés usuelles du processus autorégressif. Les deux chapitres suivants sont consacrés aux conséquences inférentielles induites par la présence d'une autorégression significative dans la perturbation $(\veps_{n})$ pour $p=1$ tout d'abord, puis pour une valeur quelconque de $p$, dans un cadre de stabilité. Ces résultats nous permettent d'apposer un regard nouveau et plus rigoureux sur certaines procédures statistiques bien connues sous la dénomination de \textit{test de Durbin-Watson} et de \textit{H-test}. Dans ce contexte de bruit autocorrélé, nous complétons cette étude par un ensemble de principes de déviations modérées liées à nos estimateurs. Nous abordons ensuite un équivalent en temps continu du processus autorégressif. Ce dernier est décrit par une équation différentielle stochastique et sa solution est plus connue sous le nom de \textit{processus d'Ornstein-Uhlenbeck}. Lorsque le processus d'Ornstein-Uhlenbeck est lui-même engendré par une diffusion similaire, cela nous permet de traiter la problématique de l'autocorrélation résiduelle dans le processus à temps continu. Nous inférons dès lors quelques propriétés statistiques de tels modèles, gardant pour objectif le parallèle avec le cas discret étudié dans les chapitres précédents. Enfin, le dernier chapitre est entièrement dévolu à la problématique de la stationnarité. Nous nous plaçons dans le cadre très général où le processus autorégressif possède une tendance polynomiale d'ordre $r$ tout en étant engendré par une marche aléatoire intégrée d'ordre $d$. Les résultats de convergence que nous obtenons dans un contexte d'instabilité généralisent le \textit{test de Leybourne et McCabe} et certains aspects du \textit{test KPSS}. De nombreux graphes obtenus en simulations viennent conforter les résultats que nous établissons tout au long de notre étude. / This thesis is devoted to the study of some asymptotic properties of the $p-$th order \textit{autoregressive process}. The latter usually designates a random sequence $(Y_{n})$ defined on $\dN$ or $\dZ$ and completely described by a linear combination of its $p$ last values and a white noise $(\veps_{n})$. All through this manuscript, one is concerned with two main issues related to the study of such processes: \textit{serial correlation} and \textit{stationarity}. We intend, by way of introduction, to give a necessary overview of the usual properties of the autoregressive process. The two following chapters are dedicated to inferential consequences coming from the presence of a significative autoregression in the disturbance $(\veps_{n})$ for $p=1$ on the one hand, and then for any $p$, in the stable framework. These results enable us to give a new light on some statistical procedures such as the \textit{Durbin-Watson test} and the \textit{H-test}. In this autocorrelated noise framework, we complete the study by a set of moderate deviation principles on our estimates. Then, we tackle a continuous-time equivalent of the autoregressive process. The latter is described by a stochastic differential equation and its solution is the well-known \textit{Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process}. In the case where the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is itself driven by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, one deals with the serial correlation issue for the continuous-time process. Hence, we infer some statistical properties of such models, keeping the parallel with the discrete-time framework studied in the previous chapters as an objective. Finally, the last chapter is entirely devoted to the stationarity issue. We consider the general autoregressive process with a polynomial trend of order $r$ driven by a random walk of order $d$. The convergence results in the unstable framework generalize the \textit{Leybourne and McCabe test} and some angles of the \textit{KPSS test}. Many graphs obtained by simulations come to strengthen the results established all along the study.

This thesis examines the life and works of the English Calvinist clergyman Daniel Featley (1582-1645) through the lens of various printed and manuscript sources, especially his manuscript notebooks in Oxford. It links his story and thought to the broader themes of early Stuart religious, political, and intellectual history. Chapter one analyses the first thirty- five years of Featley’s life, exploring how many of the features that underpin the major themes of Featley’s career—and which reemerged throughout his life—were formed and nurtured during Featley’s early years in Oxford, Paris, and Cornwall. There he emerges as an ambitious young divine in pursuit of preferment; a shrewd minister, who attempted to position himself within the ecclesiastical spectrum; and a budding polemicist, whose polemical exchanges were motivated by a pastoral desire to protect the English Church. Chapter two examines Featley’s role as an ecclesiastical licenser and chaplain to Archbishop George Abbot in the 1610s and 1620s. It offers a reinterpretation of the view that Featley was a benign censor, explores how pastoral sensitivities influenced his censorship, and analyses the parallels between Featley’s licensing and his broader ecclesiastical aims. Moreover, by exploring how our historiographical understandings of licensing and censorship have been clouded by Featley’s attempts to conceal that an increasingly influential anti- Calvinist movement was seizing control of the licensing system and marginalizing Calvinist licensers in the 1620s, this chapter (along with chapter 7) addresses the broader methodological issues of how to weigh and evaluate various vantage points. Chapters three and four analyse the publications resulting from Featley’s debates with prominent Catholic and anti-Calvinist leaders. These chapters examine Featley’s use of patristic tradition in these disputes, the pastoral motivations that underpinned his polemical exchanges, and how Featley strategically issued these polemical publications to counter Catholicism and anti-Calvinism and to promulgate his own alternative version of orthodoxy at several crucial political moments during the 1620s and 1630s. Chapter five focuses on how, in the 1620s and 1630s, the themes of prayer and preaching in his devotional work, Ancilla Pietatis, and collection of seventy sermons, Clavis Mystica, were complementary rather than contradictory. It also builds on several of the major themes of the thesis by examining how pastoral and polemical motivations were at the heart of these works, how Featley continued to be an active opponent—rather than a passive bystander and victim—of Laudianism, and how he positioned himself politically to avoid being reprimanded by an increasingly hostile Laudian regime. Chapter six explores the theme of ‘moderation’ in the events of the 1640s surrounding Featley’s participation at the Westminster Assembly and his debates with separatists. It focuses on how Featley’s pursuit of the middle way was both: a self-protective ‘chameleon- like’ survival instinct—a rudder he used to navigate his way through the shifting political and ecclesiastical terrain of this period—and the very means by which he moderated and manipulated two polarized groups (decidedly convictional Parliamentarians and royalists) in order to reoccupy the middle ground, even while it was eroding away. Finally, chapter seven examines Featley’s ‘afterlife’ by analysing the reception of Featley through the lens of his post-1660 biographers and how these authors, particularly Featley’s nephew, John Featley, depicted him retrospectively in their biographical accounts in the service of their own post-restoration agendas. By analysing how Featley’s own ‘chameleon-like’ tendencies contributed to his later biographers’ distorted perception of him, this final chapter returns to the major methodological issues this thesis seeks to address. In short, by exploring the various roles he played in the early Stuart English Church and seeking to build on and contribute to recent historiographical research, this study sheds light on the links between a minister’s pastoral sensitivities and polemical engagements, and how ministers pursued preferment and ecclesiastically positioned themselves, their opponents, and their biographical subjects through print.