This diploma thesis focuses on the process of euro adoption in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Regarding the time frame, it mainly covers a period of 2004-2014. Nevertheless in order to maximise plausibility of results, this thesis focuses on relevant moments beyond the above mentioned period as well. The main aim of this thesis is to analyse a variation in the relationship of both examined countries towards the process of European monetary integration. Whereas Slovakia joined the Eurozone in 2009, the Czech Republic has not fulfilled its obligation stemming from the EU membership yet. The secondary aim of this thesis is to verify the power of IR theories dealing with transfer of sovereignty on the supranational level. Thus, this paper strives to identify whether the constructivist or rationalist (for the purposes of this thesis represented by ideational liberalism and commercial liberalism / liberal intergovernmentalism) theoretic paradigm is more accurate in its attempt to explain the examined variation. In order to fulfil this aim, methods of difference and congruence are applied. However, each of these methods shows different results. According to the method of difference, an explanation based on commercial liberal / liberal intergovernmentalist logic of economic-materialistic consequences may...

自從2007年發生金融海嘯後，歐盟貨幣整合問題持續被討論，其中，歐盟成員國各國經濟狀況差距過大被認為是這次經濟危機爆發出種種問題的主要原因。而近幾年，在國際其他地區區域性整合刺激之下，亞洲各國開始重視簽屬自由貿易協定的重要性，甚至未來朝區域貨幣整合作發展。 此論文主要是探討東亞國家是否具備成立亞元區的條件。我們探討東亞各國2004-2015年間對美元匯率以及消費者物價指數(CPI)變化是否有一致的趨勢，主要使用MST及HC、DCG tree機器學習分群演算法作為分析工具，對於東亞十個國家，包含台灣、日本、中國、南韓、香港、印尼、泰國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡以及用於對照的世界上其他國家作分析，以2008年金融海嘯以及2013年日本提出新經濟政策作為分界點，分為三個時期做討論。 研究結果顯示，三個時期，東亞國家匯率變動相較於世界其他國家皆較有一致的趨勢，而更進一步檢視，我們發現在日本提出新經濟政策前後，東亞國家匯率結構發生明顯的變化。物價指數方面同樣也是東亞國家有較集中的趨勢，但物價指數不向匯率，不同時期並無明顯變化。我們進而推論東亞國家以符合成立亞元區最基本的條件，匯率和物價指數的一致性，但是有幾個結果不能忽略，日本對於東亞國家匯率結構的影響力以及人民幣、日圓等強勢貨幣匯率變動趨勢在分析結果中和其餘東協國家還是有些差距，這些可能是在未來貨幣整合過程中市所需要注意的部分。 / After the global financial crisis, European Union (EU) faced a range of economic and political problems, including the Greek debt crisis and the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership. People start to think what factors cause these problems. A large literature has emerged discussing this issue and examining the future directions of monetary and exchange rate agreements of many countries in the region. One of the popular questions has raised researchers’ interests: Are East Asian countries possible to be the next monetary integrated area? This paper investigates the similarity of exchange rates and consumer price index (CPI) in the East Asian region, Taiwan, Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea and five ASEAN member countries by cluster analysis. We use HC tree and DCG tree to discuss the structures of these two macro economic factors and whether major economic events between 2004~2015 such as global financial crisis and Japan’s new economic policy influenced the structure. The exchange rates and CPI are both found to be more consistent among East Asian countries, including that these countries already have the basic condition to be the monetary integrated area. However, it is important to pay attention to Japan’s new economic policy, which influenced the structure a lot, and that Japanese yen and Chinese yuan still have gaps with ASEAN member countries.

L'objet de cette thèse est d'étudier les systèmes de cointégration fractionnaire de forme triangulaire mais également d'analyser l'apport de ces systèmes dans la modélisation des co-mouvements au sein des marchés financiers internationaux. La thèse s'articule autour de six chapitres équitablement répartis entre contributions économétriques et économiques. Concernant l'approche économétrique, un intérêt particulier est donné à l'estimation de ces systèmes en absence d'information sur les paramètres d'intérêts. Dans cette optique, plusieurs techniques d'estimation sont analysées et développées, essentiellement dans le domaine des fréquences car celui-ci permet un traitement semi-paramétrique des paramètres de nuisances. Les performances de ses estimateurs sont étudiés à travers des simulations mais également à travers l'étude des propriétés asymptotiques. Concernant l'approche économique, une première contribution exploite la cointégration fractionnaire pour révéler l'existence d'un système de taux de change entre certains pays Asiatiques. Une deuxième contribution porte sur l'analyse des interdépendances entre le marché du pétrole et divers taux de change au niveau de la volatilité. Une troisième contribution introduit un processus d'apprentissage adaptatif dans un modèle monétaire à plusieurs pays afin d'étudier sous quelles conditions un système de taux de change peut émerger. / The aim of the thesis is to study a triangular form of fractional cointegration systems and to investigate whether these systems allow to model the comovements in international financial markets. The thesis is organized around six chapters. Three of them are theory-oriented and the three others are empirics-oriented. Concerning the econometric approach, a particular interest is devoted to the estimation of these systems when all parameters of interest are unknown. To this extent, several estimation techniques are investigated and introduced, essentially in frequency domain as it allows a semi-parametric treatment of the nuisance parameters. Most of times, the performance of these estimators are studied by means of simulations but the asymptotic theory is also developed. Concerning the economic approach, a first contribution applies the fractional cointegration theory to reveal the existence of an exchange rate system between several Asian countries. A second contribution deals with the risk interdependences between the crude oil market and several exchange rates. A third contribution considers an adaptive learning mechanism in a multi-country monetary model to investigate the conditions under which an exchange rate system is likely to emerge.

This thesis studies the history of the Scandinavian Currency Union, 1873-1924. It is divided into four analytical chapters, each dealing with a different aspect of the Union and each written as a separate paper. The conclusions of the thesis challenge existing views of the Union and examines new aspects of this episode in monetary history. It poses new questions and exploits and evaluates new sources. The first paper offers an original interpretation of the role of Scandinavianism in the monetary reform of 1873-1875. It is argued that its importance has been both exaggerated and misinterpreted. In fact, the monetary integration of those years was principally motivated by economic considerations. The second paper deals with inter Scandinavian monetary cooperation during the period 1873-1914. It argues that the process of monetary integration, later followed by disintegration, during these decades is best understood in the context of a trade off between financial efficiency and national economic vulnerability.  It provides a comprehensive analysis of the motives that underlay the principal extensions of the Union’s institutional framework.This includes, the formation, cancellation and renegotiation of the formal, Union based, clearing agreement, as well as the process leading to the free circulation of all Scandinavian notes throughout the currency area.The third paper studies the level of integration and efficiency of the Scandinavian foreign exchange market throughout the period. The paper applies theories and methods from modern economics and finance on a new set of historical financial data. It concludes that the currency union generally, and the clearing agreement in particular, significantly increased the degree of market integration. It also concludes that, during most of the period, the Scandinavian foreign exchange market was characterized by perfect arbitrage and efficiency. The final paper challenges the prevailing scholarly view of the dissolution of the Union. It argues that the break up resulted from the asymmetric shocks that the three countries experienced during World War I. These shocks, which differed as a result of varying national economic policies and structures, created tensions that required exchange rate adjustments to be resolved. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2004</p>

The diploma thesis is devoted to explanation of Czech position towards European monetary integration. Even though Czechia is committed to adopt euro, the official term has not been set. The main purpose of a thesis is to answer why the Czech Republic postponed entrance into to eurozone indefinitely. The first chapter applies materialistic aspects of liberal intergovernmentalist theory into the Czech context by analysing economic interests on micro and macro level. Detailed cost-benefit analysis results in a slight favour of entrance. However, valid economic arguments on both sides and lack of interest group pressure allow government to adopt waiting strategy. Second analytical part incorporates constructivist theory, particularly defines Czech national identity and its effect on public opinion on eurozone. The thesis refuses exclusive character of the Czech identity and its ability to fully explain postponement of euro adoption. Thesis main contribution to international relation research is final chapter, which extends traditional integration theories by perspective of ideology. Ideological prism seems to present the most eloquent explanation of the Czech position, especially dominance of firstly the Eurosceptic ODS and then populist party ANO, as well as conservative stance of CNB. Despite the fact that...

Dans cette thèse, nous proposons quatre contributions originales à l'étude de l'intégration monétaire et financière des pays asiatiques.Dans le premier chapitre nous déterminons la sensibilité relative des devises asiatiques (ASEAN-5, Corée du Sud) face aux chocs simulés sur le dollar, l'euro et l'ACU. Nous mettons en évidence la volonté de ces pays de se détourner d'une politique de change exclusivement centrée sur le dollar vers une politique plus flexible, où le poids de l'ACU semble avoir gagné en importance.Le deuxième chapitre met l'accent sur la synchronisation entre les cycles des affaires de l'ASEAN-5. Nous montrons que la corrélation entre les cycles est plus forte durant les phases de contraction mais que la dynamique d'ajustement est propre à chaque pays. Par ailleurs, certains cycles des affaires de l'ASEAN-5 contiennent des informations pertinentes pour prédire les changements de régime des autres pays.Le troisième chapitre examine le co-mouvement entre les taux de change réels de l'ASEAN-5 du point de vue de la parité de pouvoir d'achat généralisé (Enders and Hurns, 1994, 1997). Nous montrons que les taux de change réels sont liés par un processus à mémoire longue, ce qui soutient l'idée d'une intégration monétaire plus poussée entre différents sous-groupes de pays. Enfin dans le dernier chapitre, nous examinons le degré d'intégration des marchés boursiers en Asie (ASEAN-5, Hong Kong, Japon). Nos résultats montrent que la volatilité des marchés boursiers internationaux partagent une tendance stochastique commune. En revanche, les marchés boursiers des pays émergents apparaissent encore segmentés tant au niveau global que régional. / This thesis proposes four contributions to the study of Asian monetary and financial integration.The first chapter examines to what extent the East Asian exchange rates (ASEAN-5, South Korea) are sensitive to shocks simulated on the US dollar, the euro and the ACU. We show that these countries have moved from a US dollar-based pegging system to a more flexible exchange rate policy, where the weight of the ACU has increased over the last years. The second chapter attempts to analyze the correlation among the ASEAN-5 business cycles. Estimates reveal that correlations are higher during downturns but the process of adjustment to shocks displays idiosyncratic features. We also provide evidence that the signals contained in some leading ASEAN-5 business cycles help predict regime switching in other countries. The third chapter examines the co-movement among the ASEAN-5 real exchange rates through the generalized purchasing power parity (Enders and Hurns, 1994, 1997). We find that real exchange rates are tied through a long memory process, supporting further monetary integration among different sub-groups of the ASEAN-5.In the last chapter, we investigate to what extent the stock markets in Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, ASEAN-5) are integrated. Our results reveal that the stock market volatilities in developed countries share a common stochastic trend. Conversely, emerging markets appear to be segmented from both each other and global markets.

disertační práce Petr Semecký Česká národní banka, právní postavení a náplň činnosti 5 Abstract A. Objectives The main goal of the dissertation "The Czech National Bank, legal status and content of activity" is to quantify, qualify and draw as exact as possible conclusions about some aspects of the development, status and activities of the Czech National Bank in the future. To solve this task, the author has used in the introduction of this work three following key questions: 1. What are the implications for the Czech National Bank of the new bodies supervising the financial markets at european level? 2. What are the benefits and negatives of adopting the euro for the Czech Republic and should the Czech Republic actually join the European Monetary Union? 3. What impact will have the amendment of the Capital Adequacy Directive (the "Basel II") on the activities of the Czech National Bank? B. Methods By creating this work was used a wide range of research methods to ensure that there will be drawn conclusions with the best possible informative value. It is possible to mention particularly the method of recherche, abstraction, comparison and synthesis. C. Sources As the most important sources used by creating the work can be mentioned ecpecially, scientific publications, monographs, articles published...

Cette thèse étudie le choix des régimes de change dans des contextes économiques particuliers. La première partie (Chapitres 1 et 2) considère le cas des petits pays dont les dettes sont libellées en monnaies étrangères et celui d’une région constituée de tels petits pays lorsqu’il existe une similitude dans la composition des paniers définissant leurs taux de change effectifs. La deuxième partie de la thèse (Chapitres 3 et 4) se penche sur la considération des différents régimes de change dans le contexte monétaire de trappe à liquidité comparativement à un environnement monétaire traditionnel. En se basant sur une modélisation théorique de type DSGE, l’économétrie bayésienne et des données de panel, la thèse utilise principalement l’analyse des fonctions de réponses, de bien-être et de désalignements monétaires comme critères de comparaison de plusieurs régimes monétaires alternatifs. Les principaux enseignements de cette thèse se résument ainsi. Le change flexible semble être le meilleur régime pour des petites économies ouvertes comme ceux de l’Asie du Sud-Est. Au niveau régional, il est montré le ciblage effectif conduit à une stabilité des taux de change bilatéraux de la région, une sorte de fixité des taux de change qui ressemblerait à une zone monétaire de facto. Dans le contexte monétaire de trappe à liquidité, on trouve que,contrairement à la croyance commune lors la crise de la zone euro, l’union monétaire est plus performante que des politiques nationales de change flexible. Seule une intervention sur le taux de change nominal pourrait permettre au régime de change indépendant de dominer l’union monétaire. A travers une analyse théorique et empirique de l’effet de la trappe à liquidité sur l’ampleur des désalignements monétaires, il est aussi montré que la contrainte ZLB tend à réduire le désalignement monétaire dans une union monétaire comparativement aux politiques nationales de flottement.Cela plaide en faveur du renforcement de l’intégration monétaire au sein d’une union durant la période de trappe à liquidité. / This thesis investigates the choice of exchange rate regimes in specific economic contexts. The first part of this work (Chapters 1 and 2) considers the case of small open economies with foreign-currency denominated debt and that of a region where there is a similarity among trade-weighted currency baskets of countries. The second part of the thesis (Chapters 3 and 4) focuses on the study of exchange rate regimes and monetary integration in a liquidity trap environment relative to “tranquil” times. Based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and Bayesian and Panel data econometrics, the thesis mainly uses the analyses of impulse responses, welfare and currency misalignments as comparison criteria among alternative currency regimes.The key lessons from this work are summarized as follows. For small open economies heavily in debted in foreign currency, like those of Southeast Asia, the flexible exchange is the best regime, followed by intermediate and fixed exchange rate regimes. At the regional level, it is shown that the exchange rate targeting regime leads to a stability of intra-regional bilateral exchange rates, which is a sort of fixity of exchange rates similar to a “de facto currency area”. In the context of a liquidity trap, we find that, contrary to common belief during the Euro area crisis, the currency union welfare dominates the independent floating regime. Only a central bank intervention in the form of a managed float policy could allow the independent floating to outperform the monetary union.Through both the empirical and theoretical analyses of the liquidity trap effects on currency misalignments, it is shown that the ZLB constraint tends to reduce currency misalignments compared with the independent floating policy. This suggests a reinforcement of the monetary integration within a monetary union during the liquidity trap

This thesis provides a thorough analysis of the covered- and uncovered interest parity conditions (CIP, UIP) as well as the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH) for Sweden and the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). By studying data on interbank rates in Sweden (STIBOR) and the EMU (EURIBOR) as well as the corresponding spot- and forward exchange rates, monetary integration and country-specific risks are determined and analyzed with direct applications to the potential entry of Sweden into the EMU. As interest rate parity in general gives insight into market efficiency and frictions between the chosen regions, such points are discussed in addition to EMU entry. Drawing on past studies that mainly studied one condition in isolation, a nested formulation of interest rate parity is instead derived and tested using cointegration and robust estimation methods. The results point to a strict rejection of the FRUH for all horizons except the shortest and a case where CIP only holds for the 6-month horizon and partially over one year. This implies, based on the nested formulation, that UIP is rejected for all horizons as well. Ultimately, the study concludes that a Swedish entry into the EMU is not motivated given the lackluster results on UIP and due to the lack of monetary integration. / Den här uppsatsen presenterar en djupgående analys av det kurssäkrade- och icke-kurssäkrade ränteparitetsvillkoret samt den effektiva marknadshypotesen på valutaterminer för Sverige och den europeiska ekonomiska och monetära unionen (EMU). Genom att studera data på interbankräntor i Sverige (STIBOR) och EMU (EURIBOR) samt respektive spot- och valutaterminskurser så skattas och analyseras monetär integration samt landsspecifika risker med en direkt tillämpning på Sveriges eventuella inträde i EMU. Eftersom ränteparitet generellt ger insikt i marknadseffektivitet och friktioner regioner emellan, diskuteras även dessa punkter utöver ett eventuellt EMU-inträde. Genom att bygga på föregående studier som i huvudsak studerar ränteparitetsvillkoren var för sig, härleds en sekventiell formulering av villkoren som sedan testas med kointegration och robusta estimeringsmetoder. Resultaten ger att den effektiva marknadshypotesen strikt förkastas på alla tidshorisonter förutom på en dag respektive en vecka, samt att kurssäkrad ränteparitet håller på 6 och delvis 12 månaders sikt. Baserat på den sekventiella formuleringen så innebär detta att icke-kurssäkrad ränteparitet inte håller på någon tidshorisont. Slutligen, baserat på både resultat och diskussion, är ett svenskt inträde i EMU inte motiverbart givet negativa resultat för icke-kurssäkrad ränteparitet och avsaknaden av fullständig monetär integration mellan regionerna.