中國大陸是世界自然災害發生、災情最嚴重的國家之一，具有災害種類多、發生頻率高、分佈地域廣、造成損失大等特點，對中國的經濟建設與社會發展，造成多方的嚴重破壞與影響。 目前中國大陸的災害管理主要是縱向的災害管理模式，即在中共中央「統一領導」下，主導災害管理，並堅持「政府集體領導、上下分級管理、部門分工負責、以地方為主、中央為輔」的災害管理體制，劃分為國家級減災管理、省級減災管理與地方級（城鄉社區）減災管理等三個層次，凸顯中國災害管理體制出現不少問題，也暴露出中國應急救援工作存在薄弱環節。 因此近年來，中國逐步形成自然災害的管理處置體系，災害危機管理工作也有一定程度的進展，但2008年發生的雪災、川震，是中國在「SARS」危機結束後，所遇到最為嚴重的危機事件，對中國「統一領導、分級負責、條塊結合、屬地管理」的處置體系，進行一次全面性的檢驗。同時，也對中國政權建設在政治、經濟、軍事、社會以及兩岸關係上，產生決定性的影響。所以，中國政府在面對自然災害格外謹慎，深怕直接影響其政府形象及認可度。 儘管中國因著災害事件接踵而來，在管理應處上逐步學習改善，但評估中國在2008年自然災害的應對中，災害管理仍落後於經濟的增長和社會的發展，與中共中央的要求還是有很大的差距，所以中國未來在應對自然災害管理組織、制度、能力和作為等，還需許多改進和完善的地方。 / Mainland China, having many features of disaster such as various species, high happening frequency, extensive distribution, great damage etc., is one of the countries with the most serious natural disaster situation experience in the world. These features also cause serious destruction to the economic construction and social development of China. Presently, Mainland China takes the vertical disaster administration mode to handle the situation. The government directly leads the disaster administration and insists forming a system of central collective leading, classifying administration , responsibility divided and giving region the priority. It is divided into three levels：national, provincial and regional disaster administration. It reveals many problems in disaster administration of China and exposes insufficient ability of China in dealing with emergency and rescuing sufferers. Therefore, in recent years, China gradually forms a administration system in dealing with natural disasters and makes a certain progress. However the snow disaster and the earthquake of Sichuan, occurred in 2008, were the most serious accidents we ever met in China after the SARS crisis, These contingencies urge China to entirely check the processing system of integrated leading, classified responsibility and possession administration. Simultaneously, these experiences also make a decisive influence to the China political power construction on political affairs, economy, military, society and cross-Strait relations. Thus, the China government carefully confront natural disasters and afraid it influences the image and approve of the government. Although China gradually learn and improves the measures in dealing with the continued accidents, but assessing that China in 2008 in response to natural disasters, disaster management is still lagging behind the economic growth and social development. Also it is still a large gap to conform with the requirements of the CPC Central Committee. Therefore in the future, for China it is still needed to be improved and perfected in response to natural disaster management organizations, systems, capabilities, and actions etc.

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies (GAES). Johannesburg, October 2017. / Climate and weather-related impacts have become widespread particularly affecting the tourism industry. Changes in the climate and weather lead to changes in tourist seasons, products and travel opportunities. Flooding has gained research attention over the past decade, since the destruction creates many challenges for tourism businesses. Floods are a growing global problem, increasing in terms of frequency of occurrence, property damages, business economic losses, and fatalities. South Africa has begun to experience many annual flood events both coastal and in-land, but the Limpopo Province has been declared as flood disaster area, since the increase in temperatures and precipitation. Interest now lies on how particular tourist destinations in the Limpopo Province can adapt to reduce flooding risks whilst increasing opportunities mainly for the economy. Debates around flooding costs, recovery processes, and adaptive capacities affirm to be more challenging for the tourism accommodation sector. The study aimed to explore the perceived flooding impacts on different types of tourist accommodation. Thus, to determine if floods hindered any tourist bookings, offerings, and tourist length of stay. The exploration verified the possible flood risks to vulnerable accommodation and no adequate adaptation plans. A purposeful sample of 145 tourist accommodation businesses located across three flood-prone regions of the Limpopo Province were selected to answer a semi-structured questionnaire to put across their flooding experiences from a management perspective. The semi-structured questionnaire was combined with telephone interviews and email responses. Coherent theme development within the theoretical framework was achieved through content analysis. Content analysis allowed for the critical discussion of deductive and inductive themes found in the results. Floods during peak-seasons threaten and affect tourist accommodation, leaving them behind in business. Those not affected benefit with increased tourist demand and new opportunities in the hospitality industry. Tourist accommodation businesses are exposed to flood risks and experience challenges to assess, recover and adapt from the direct and indirect impacts. Alongside the destruction of tourism in these regions, were concerns of the provision of flood mapping and flood management plans for tourism businesses. Wider flooding impacts on the environment and the surrounding local communities demonstrates a growing problem for the future. Key words: floods; tourist accommodation; flooding impacts; risks; opportunities; tourist demand; adaptation; flood recovery, flood mapping, flood management plans. / LG2018

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Johannesburg, February 2015. / Due to its geographical location, poor economic situation and geological features that are characterised by mostly mountainous terrain, Lesotho is vulnerable to hazardous events associated with climate, such as drought, floods, heavy snow, and severe frost. This research explores factors underlying spatial vulnerability of places to natural hazards in south-western Lesotho. Prior vulnerability assessments in Lesotho have investigated vulnerability in terms of identifying populations that are most food insecure and vulnerable to hunger. By broadening the scope of vulnerability to include biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics, the study emphasises the concept of place vulnerability as a foundation for understanding Lesotho’s vulnerability to natural hazards. Spatial orientation of vulnerability within a geographical area provides an easy way for planners and decision makers to identify areas that may require additional resources in order to prepare for disasters. To date, no quantitatively based vulnerability assessment has been undertaken in Lesotho, so this study is one of the first to assess place vulnerability to natural hazards in Lesotho using GIS and it emphasise the role of geography of a place.

O aumento na quantidade e na intensidade de desastres naturais é um problema que está se agravando em todo o mundo. As consequências desses desastres são significantemente ampliadas quando ocorrem em regiões urbanas ou com atuação humana devido à perda de vidas e à quantidade de bens materiais afetados. O uso de redes de sensores sem fio para a coleta de dados e o uso de técnicas de aprendizado de máquina para a previsão de desastres naturais são opções viáveis, porém novas tendências tecnológicas têm se mostrado promissoras e podem agregar na tarefa de monitoramento de ambientes e na previsão de desastres naturais. Uma dessas tendências é adotar redes de sensores baseadas em IP e utilizar padrões emergentes para IoT. Nesse contexto, esta Tese propõe e analisa uma abordagem chamada SENDI (System for dEtecting and forecasting Natural Disasters based on IoT), um sistema tolerante a falhas baseado em IoT, WSN e AM para a detecção e a previsão de desastres naturais. O SENDI foi modelado empregando o ns-3 e validado utilizando dados coletados por uma WSN real instalada na cidade de São Carlos - Brasil, a qual realiza a coleta de dados de rios da região. Esse sistema também prevê a possibilidade de falhas na comunicação e a perda de nós durante a ocorrência de desastres, além de agregar inteligência aos nós para realizar a distribuição de dados e de previsões, mesmo nesses casos. Esta Tese também apresenta um estudo de caso sobre previsão de enchentes que utiliza a modelagem do sistema e os dados colhidos pela WSN. Os resultados dos experimentos mostram que o SENDI permite gerar alertas para a tomada de decisões em tempo hábil, realizando as previsões mesmo com falhas parciais no sistema, porém com acurácia variável dependendo do nível de degradação do mesmo. / Natural disasters have been increasing intensely all around the globe. The consequences of these disasters are significantly amplified when they occur in urban areas or places where there are human activities due to loss of lives and assets. The usage of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) for data collection and Machine Learning (ML) to create natural disasters forecast models are viable options. However, new technology trends have been showing promising results, which can aggregate to the tasks of environmental monitoring and natural disasters forecast. One of these new trends is to adopt IP based sensor networks and to use emergent Internet of Things (IoT) standards. In this context, this Thesis presents and analyzes an approach called SENDI (System for dEtecting and forecasting Natural Disasters based on IoT), a fault-tolerant system based on IoT, ML and WSN to detect and forecast natural disasters. SENDI was modelled using ns-3 and validated by means of real data collected by a WSN installed in São Carlos - Brazil, which collects the data of rivers around the region. This system also foresees the possibility of communication failures and loss of nodes during disasters, also adding intelligence to the nodes in order to perform the distribution of data and forecasts, even in such cases. This Thesis presents a case study about flash flooding forecast as well, which uses the system model and the data collected by the WSN. The results of the experiments show that SENDI allows to generate warnings in time to make decisions as such predictions can be foreseen even if partial failure of the system occurs. However, there is a variable accuracy, which depends on the system degradation.

O aumento na quantidade e na intensidade de desastres naturais é um problema que está se agravando em todo o mundo. As consequências desses desastres são significantemente ampliadas quando ocorrem em regiões urbanas ou com atuação humana devido à perda de vidas e à quantidade de bens materiais afetados. O uso de redes de sensores sem fio para a coleta de dados e o uso de técnicas de aprendizado de máquina para a previsão de desastres naturais são opções viáveis, porém novas tendências tecnológicas têm se mostrado promissoras e podem agregar na tarefa de monitoramento de ambientes e na previsão de desastres naturais. Uma dessas tendências é adotar redes de sensores baseadas em IP e utilizar padrões emergentes para IoT. Nesse contexto, esta Tese propõe e analisa uma abordagem chamada SENDI (System for dEtecting and forecasting Natural Disasters based on IoT), um sistema tolerante a falhas baseado em IoT, WSN e AM para a detecção e a previsão de desastres naturais. O SENDI foi modelado empregando o ns-3 e validado utilizando dados coletados por uma WSN real instalada na cidade de São Carlos - Brasil, a qual realiza a coleta de dados de rios da região. Esse sistema também prevê a possibilidade de falhas na comunicação e a perda de nós durante a ocorrência de desastres, além de agregar inteligência aos nós para realizar a distribuição de dados e de previsões, mesmo nesses casos. Esta Tese também apresenta um estudo de caso sobre previsão de enchentes que utiliza a modelagem do sistema e os dados colhidos pela WSN. Os resultados dos experimentos mostram que o SENDI permite gerar alertas para a tomada de decisões em tempo hábil, realizando as previsões mesmo com falhas parciais no sistema, porém com acurácia variável dependendo do nível de degradação do mesmo. / Natural disasters have been increasing intensely all around the globe. The consequences of these disasters are significantly amplified when they occur in urban areas or places where there are human activities due to loss of lives and assets. The usage of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) for data collection and Machine Learning (ML) to create natural disasters forecast models are viable options. However, new technology trends have been showing promising results, which can aggregate to the tasks of environmental monitoring and natural disasters forecast. One of these new trends is to adopt IP based sensor networks and to use emergent Internet of Things (IoT) standards. In this context, this Thesis presents and analyzes an approach called SENDI (System for dEtecting and forecasting Natural Disasters based on IoT), a fault-tolerant system based on IoT, ML and WSN to detect and forecast natural disasters. SENDI was modelled using ns-3 and validated by means of real data collected by a WSN installed in São Carlos - Brazil, which collects the data of rivers around the region. This system also foresees the possibility of communication failures and loss of nodes during disasters, also adding intelligence to the nodes in order to perform the distribution of data and forecasts, even in such cases. This Thesis presents a case study about flash flooding forecast as well, which uses the system model and the data collected by the WSN. The results of the experiments show that SENDI allows to generate warnings in time to make decisions as such predictions can be foreseen even if partial failure of the system occurs. However, there is a variable accuracy, which depends on the system degradation.

公共工程是國家重要施政項目之ㄧ，所提供的服務品質關係著國家經濟發展甚鉅。台灣地處亞熱帶及環太平洋地震帶，颱風、洪水、地震發生頻繁，公共工程的服務品質受天然災害的威脅甚大。近年來天災頻仍，面對天然災害所帶來的經濟損失，有許多國家已經開始透過保險方式，處理已完工公共工程遭受天然災害威脅時的財務風險，以減輕國家財政負擔，進而更合理的分配國家資源。 本研究將透過台灣地區天然災害發生的情形及我國目前在公共工程遭遇天然災害而毀損時的因應方式探討天然災害損失對我國財政的負擔；並介紹國際上主要再保險公司：瑞士再保險公司、慕尼黑再保險公司有關完工土木工程保險的承保範圍、核保方式，與東亞日本、南亞印度兩個國家經營完工土木工程保險的現況。 本研究並整理歸納透過商業保險來進行已完工公共工程的天災風險規劃雖較現行單以國庫承擔損失方式經濟，但可能面臨政府機關態度消極及產險業者承保能量不足兩個關鍵議題。惟以澳洲昆士蘭水患為例，慮及不可知的天災風險，仍建議政府機關能率同商業保險業者共同建立完整的已完工公共工程風險管理機制，攜手降低天災風險發生時可能帶來的傷害。 關鍵字：公共工程、天然災害、完工土木工程保險。 / Public Construction Works are always considered as one of the important national economic developing strategy. In view of Taiwan is located in the region which is highly exposed to natural disasters such as typhoon, flood and earthquake, the quality of the after service related to the Civil Engineering Completed Works is greatly threatened by the natural disasters. In recent years, there were many natural disasters occurred, in order to minimize the economic loss brought by such disasters, many countries have begun to arrange insurance placement for the Civil Engineering Completed Works to share the financial risks. This study introduces the loss circumstances of the public engineering works brought by the natural disaster and the impact of the economic growth in Taiwan. The major international re-insurers: Swiss Re and Munich Re both provide the Civil Engineering Completed Risks (CECR) Insurance to against the loss or damage after the construction work has been completed. This study introduces the difference coverage and underwriting as compared in between Swiss Re Form and Munich Re Form. This study also illustrates the current status in respect of CECR in Japan and India markets. This research induces a more economic method by arranging the Catastrophe Risks Plan through the placement by commercial insurance for the Civil Engineering Completed Works rather than the existing regulations that all these disasters bond by the government. Moreover, it also facing two problems are that the government is too conservative and the negative attitude as well as the in-sufficient capacity of the local insurance industry. For example, the serious flooding occurred in Queensland- Australia, the government should take into consideration how to prevent from the incredible natural disaster risks. We do suggest the government should corporate with local insurance industry to establish an completed risks management for Civil Engineering Completed Works to minimize the loss that brought by the natural disasters which may occur. Key Words: Public Construction Works, Natural Disaster, Civil Engineering Completed Risks Insurance (CECR)

Since 2004 there have been multiple devastating tsunamis around the globe triggered by large magnitude earthquakes; with the most recent being the Tohoku, Japan tsunami in March 2011. These tsunamis have caused significant loss of life and damage to the coastal communities impacted by these powerful waves. The resulting devastation has raised awareness of the dangers of tsunamis and the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) housesmash project (NEEShousesmash), was started to investigate several different areas of tsunami inundation. The work presented in the following two manuscripts was performed at the O.H. Hinsdale Wave Lab and Gene D. Knudson Wood Engineering Lab, which are located at Oregon State University. This work represents a small portion of the total NEEShousesmash project, and is focused on improving the knowledge and predictability of tsunami loading and structural performance. The first manuscript investigates tsunami wave impact on full scale light-frame wood walls, and compares the measured forces to calculated values using the linear momentum equation, previously evaluated by Cross (1967). The results show for each wave height tested a peak transient force followed by a sustained quasi-static force, with a ratio of transient force to quasi-static force of 2.2. The results also show that the linear momentum equation did an acceptable job of predicting the measured transient forces on the walls to within ±10%, and that increased wall flexibility, 2x4 vs. 2x6 dimensional lumber, resulted in lower measured transient forces when subjected to similar tsunami wave heights. These results are important for practical use because the linear momentum equation is a simple equation to use, that only requires a couple of site specific input variables. The second manuscript is a continuation of the work done in the wave lab for the first manuscript. These experiments provide a starting point for expanding the testing of the structural response and performance of larger scale structures subjected to tsunami wave loads. By simulating tsunami loading in a traditional structures laboratory, the inherent limits of testing structural performance in small scale tsunami laboratory facilities is removed. The results show that a light-frame wood shear wall, built to current standards, is susceptible to premature failures from concentrated impact loads at intermediate heights compared to the design strength at full height. It is also shown that the out-of-plane walls subjected to both elastic and inelastic loads behave like a one way slab with minimal load sharing between adjacent studs. The failures observed during the hydrodynamic wave testing of the nailed connection between the bottom plate and studs was successfully reproduced, and shows that current construction standards are not fully utilizing the available capacity of each stud when subjected to tsunami waves. The reinforcement of this connection with traditional metal brackets would help increase the capacity of the out-of-plane wall to resist tsunami wave loads. / Graduation date: 2012

International studies of disasters indicate the risk for developing posttraumatic stress reactions among survivors is high. Modern life implicates increased traveling. During the last decades a large number of Swedish citizens were confronted with disasters taking place outside of their country. The prevalence of trauma reactions in a population that does not  normally  experience natural disasters, but are able to return to a community unaffected by the catastrophe, is not well studied. In addition, the effects of bereavement after traumatic circumstances have not been satisfactorily explored. Longitudinal studies on the effects of natural disasters are underrepresented and there are few studies investigating the course of recovery after traumatic exposure. The aim for this thesis was to examine long-term post-traumatic stress reactions, mental health, and complicated grief after disaster exposure and traumatic bereavement.  Data from returned questionnaires were analysed from bereaved Italian and Swedish relatives 18 months after the Linate airplane disaster 2001, and at 14 months and three years from Swedish travelers returning from Southeast Asia after the 2004 tsunami disaster, and from home staying bereaved relatives within the second year after the tsunami disaster. The main outcome measures were GHQ-12, IES-R and Inventory of Complicated Grief. The findings indicated many survivors were resilient and had ability to recover, but severe exposure to a disaster had considerable impact on psychological distress. Life threat was associated with higher levels of post-traumatic stress reactions, and increased the risk for affected mental health and suicidal ideation. Loss in combination with severe life threat exposure indicated a further increased risk of posttraumatic stress reactions and for complicated grief; this should be considered a substantial risk factor for general mental health. Loss of close relatives, especially loss of children, was associated with higher levels of posttraumatic stress and created a greater risk for complicated grief. Many survivors recovered over time; however, severe exposure and traumatic loss appeared to slow the recovery process. The findings have implications for government and health agencies, regarding the importance of knowledge and awareness of these risks for health, and for organizational structure, training, and accessibility of support and adequate treatment.

Objective: Our purpose with this study is to demonstrate the impact of natural disasters on banks' share prices. Method: Quantitative survey method, an event study. Conclusion: There is no association or a very weak correlation in this study between natural disasters and the Swedish banks' share prices.

On December 26th, 2004, 280,000 people lost their lives. A massive earthquake struck Indonesia, triggering a tsunami that affected several countries, including Thailand. The disaster had important implications for health status of Thai citizens, as well as health system planning, and thus underscores the need to study its long-term effect. This dissertation examined the patterns, determinants, and spatial analysis of health service utilization following the tsunami in Thailand. The primary aim was to determine whether tsunami-affected status (personal injury or property loss) and distance to a health facility (public health center or hospital) influenced health service utilization. The study population included Thai citizens (aged 14+), living in the tsunami-affected Thai provinces: Phuket, Phang Nga, Krabi, and Ranong. Study participants were randomly selected from the ‘affected’ and ‘unaffected’ populations. One and two years after the tsunami, participants were interviewed in-person on demographic and socio-economic factors, disaster impact, health status, and health service utilization. Five types of health services were examined: outpatient services, inpatient services, home visits, medications, and informal (unpaid) care. Distance to a health facility was calculated using Geographic Information System’s Network Analyst. The Grossman model of the demand for health care and a distance decay concept provided the foundation for this study. A propensity score method and a two-part model were used to examine the study objectives. There were 1,889 participants. One year after the tsunami, individuals affected by property loss were more likely to use medications than unaffected participants. Two years after the tsunami, individuals with personal injury were more likely to use outpatient services, medications, and informal care than unaffected participants. Distance to a health facility was associated with the use of medications and informal care. The results confirmed the long-term effect of a tsunami. This dissertation may assist the decision- and policy-makers in the identification of those most likely to use health services and in the request of health resources to the affected areas. The patterns, determinants, and spatial analysis of health service utilization found in this study may not be specific to a tsunami and may provide insights on post-disaster contexts of other natural disasters.