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A Probabilistic Decision Support System for a Performance-Based Design of InfrastructuresShahtaheri, Yasaman 20 August 2018 (has links)
Infrastructures are the most fundamental facilities and systems serving the society. Due to the existence of infrastructures in economic, social, and environmental contexts, all lifecycle phases of such fundamental facilities should maximize utility for the designers, occupants, and the society. With respect to the nature of the decision problem, two main types of uncertainties may exist: 1) the aleatory uncertainty associated with the nature of the built environment (i.e., the economic, social, and environmental impacts of infrastructures must be described as probabilistic); and 2) the epistemic uncertainty associated with the lack of knowledge of decision maker utilities. Although a number of decision analysis models exist that consider the uncertainty associated with the nature of the built environment, they do not provide a systematic framework for including aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, and decision maker utilities in the decision analysis process. In order to address the identified knowledge gap, a three-phase modular decision analysis methodology is proposed. Module one uses a formal preference assessment methodology (i.e., utility function/indifference curve) for assessing decision maker utility functions with respect to a range of alternative design configurations. Module two utilizes the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) in a systems reliability approach for assessing the reliability of alternative infrastructure design configurations with respect to the probabilistic decision criteria and decision maker defined utility functions (indifference curves), and provides a meaningful feedback loop for improving the reliability of the alternative design configurations. Module three provides a systematic framework to incorporate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the decision analysis methodology (i.e., uncertain utility functions and group decision making). The multi-criteria, probabilistic decision analysis framework is tested on a nine-story office building in a seismic zone with the probabilistic decision criteria of: building damage and business interruption costs, casualty costs, and CO2 emission costs. Twelve alternative design configurations and four decision maker utility functions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are utilized. The results of the decision analysis methodology revealed that the high-performing design configurations with an initial cost of up to $3.2M (in a cost range between $1.7M and $3.2M), a building damage and business interruption cost as low as $303K (in a cost range between $303K and $6.2M), a casualty cost as low as $43K (in a cost range between $43K and $1.2M), and a CO2 emission as low as $146K (in a cost range between $133K to $150K) can be identified by having a higher probability (i.e., up to 80%) of meeting the decision makers' preferences. The modular, holistic, decision analysis framework allows decision makers to make more informed performance-based design decisions—and allows designers to better incorporate the preferences of the decision makers—during the early design process. / PHD / Infrastructures, including buildings, roads, and bridges, are the most fundamental facilities and systems serving the society. Because infrastructures exist in economic, social, and environmental contexts, the design, construction, operations, and maintenance phases of such fundamental facilities should maximize value and usability for the designers, occupants, and the society. Identifying infrastructure configurations that maximize value and usability is challenged by two sources of uncertainty: 1) the nature of the built environment is variable (i.e., whether or not a natural hazard will occur during the infrastructure lifetime, or how costs might change over time); and 2) there is lack of knowledge of decision maker preferences and values (e.g., design cost versus social impact tradeoffs). Although a number of decision analysis models exist that consider the uncertainty associated with the nature of the built environment (e.g., natural hazard events), they do not provide a systematic framework for including the uncertainties associated with the decision analysis process (e.g., lack of knowledge about decision maker preferences), and decision maker requirements in the decision analysis process. In order to address the identified knowledge gap, a three-phase modular decision analysis methodology is proposed. Module one uses a formal preference assessment methodology for assessing decision maker values with respect to a range of alternative design configurations. Module two utilizes an algorithm for assessing the reliability of alternative infrastructure design configurations with respect to the probabilistic decision criteria and decision maker requirements, and provides a meaningful feedback loop for understanding the decision analysis results (i.e., improving the value and usability of the alternative design configurations). Module three provides a systematic framework to incorporate both the random uncertainty associated with the built environment and the knowledge uncertainty associated with lack of knowledge of decision maker preferences, and tests the reliability of the decision analysis results under random and knowledge uncertainties (i.e., uncertain decision maker preferences and group decision making). The holistic decision analysis framework is tested on a nine-story office building in a seismic zone with the probabilistic decision criteria of: building damage and business interruption costs, casualty costs, and CO2 emission costs. Twelve alternative design configurations, four decision makers, and random and knowledge sources of uncertainty are considered in the decision analysis methodology. Results indicate that the modular, holistic, decision analysis framework allows decision makers to make more informed design decisions—and allows designers to better incorporate the preferences of the decision makers—during the early design process.
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Peer sociocognitive interaction according to symmetry and asymmetry of epistemic competence / Interacción sociocognitiva entre pares en situaciones simétricas y asimétricas de competencia epistémica / Interaction socio-cognitive entre paires dans des situations symétriques et asymétriques de compétence épistémique / Interação sociocognitiva entre pares em situações simétricas e assimétricas de competência epistêmicaCastellaro, Mariano, Roselli, Néstor 30 April 2018 (has links) (PDF)
The study aimed to analyze the peer sociocognitive interaction and its relationship with individual cognitive progress, in both symmetrical and asymmetrical situations of epistemic competence. Participants were 72 students of fifth and sixth grade (age, M = 11 years, 3 months, SD = 7 months), who solved logical items (pre / post test individual, intermediate dyadic condition). The results indicated: a) the distribution of arguments in the dyad is the main variable of the interactive process related to differences between symmetrical conditions and b) the volume and distribution of the arguments in dyads are significantly associated with individual cognitive advancement, independently of symmetrical/asymmetrical condition. The results are discussed from a socioconstructivist perspective. / El objetivo del estudio fue analizar la interacción sociocognitiva entre pares y su relación con el avance cognitivo individual, en situaciones de simetría y asimetría de competencia epistémica. Participaron 72 estudiantes de quinto y sexto grado (edad, M = 11 años, 3 meses; SD=7 meses), quienes resolvieron ítems lógicos (pre/post prueba individual, condición diádica intermedia). Los resultados indicaron: a) la distribución del aporte argumental en la díada es el principal diferenciador procesual entre las condiciones simétricas analizadas; b) el volumen y distribución de los argumentos de la díada se asocian significativamente con el avance cognitivo individual, independientemente de la condición de simetría/asimetría de competencia epistémica. Los resultados se discuten a la luz de los fundamentos socioconstructivistas del estudio. / L’objectif de l’étude était d’analyser l’interaction sociocognitive entre pairs et leur relation avec le progrès cognitif individuel, dans des situations de symétrie et d’asymétrie de la compétence épistémique. 72 élèves de cinquième et sixième année ont participé (M = 11 ans, 3 mois, DE = 7 mois), qui ont résolu des items logiques (test pré / post individuel, condition dyadique intermédiaire). Les résultats ont indiqué: a) la distribution de la contribution dans l’argumentation dans le couple est le principal différentiateur procédural entre les conditions symétriques analysées; b) le volume et la distribution des arguments de le couple sont significativement associés à l’avance cognitive individuelle, indépendamment de la condition de symétrie / asymétrie de la compétence épistémique. Les résultats sont discutés sous l’angle des fondements socioconstructivistes de l’étude. / O objetivo do estudo foi analisar a interação sociocognitiva entre pares e sua relação com o progresso cognitivo individual, em situações de simetria e assimetria de competência epistê- mica. Participaram 72 alunos do quinto e sexto ano (idade, M = 11 anos, 3 meses, DE = 7 meses), que resolveram itens lógicos (pré / pós-teste individual, condição diadêmica intermediária). Os resultados indicaram: a) a distribuição da argumentação na díade é o principal diferencial processual entre as condições simétricas analisadas; b) o volume e a distribuição dos argumentos da díade estão significativamente associados ao avanço cognitivo individual, independentemente da condição de simetria / assimetria de competência epistêmica. Os resultados são discutidos à luz dos fundamentos socioconstrutivistas do estudo.
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Modality in Makkan Arabic: The Interaction Between Modals and AspectAbusulaiman, Jumanah 09 December 2019 (has links)
This dissertation explores the interaction between modality and aspect in Makkan Arabic (MA). There is some consensus in the semantic literature regarding the treatment of modal expressions that may obtain various flavours, such as epistemic, deontic, bouletic, ability, necessity or teleological. These various modal flavours can be captured by a unified lexical entry, and are identified by contextual factors Kratzer (1977, 1981, 1991, 2012). There is some debate regarding the structural location of modal elements, some of which have been argued to be high (the case of epistemic modals) and others low (the case of root modals) (e.g. Cinque (1999)). The relative scope of modals has been subject of much recent work on modality, in particular in relation to their interaction with temporal categories such as aspect. This thesis investigates this topic on the basis of novel data from MA.
I observe that the flavour of modality can change depending on how it is inflected with different types of aspect in MA. This observation is in line of Hacquard; Hacquard; Hacquard’s (2006; 2009; 2014) proposal for French and Italian. In MA, when the root modal \gdr\ “can” is inflected with the perfective, the combination yields entailments that have come to be known in the literature as ‘actuality entailments’ (AEs) (see Bhatt (1999, 2006)). In this case, the speaker gives rise to the inference that the proposition expressed by the complement holds in the actual world (instead of merely in some possible but not actual world). My thesis integrates the case of \gdr\ to current cross-linguistic debates on this topic. Building on Hacquard’s work, I argue that AEs are generated when perfective aspect scopes over root modals. Perfective aspect links events to the actual world. Imperfective aspect scoping over the modal fails to generate AEs. My thesis ex-
ii tends the investigation of AEs to non-perfective cases. I argue that in addition to the contrast between perfective and imperfective, MA also distinguishes perfect aspect (e.g. an auxiliary plus a modal participle like gaadir). I suggest that the perfect in MA has several shapes, including the choice between two auxiliaries: kaan and saar. I link the different shapes of the perfect to the different types of interpretation identified by Portner (2000, 2003) for the English perfect. I suggest that in MA, different forms of the perfect are linked to distinct interpretations (which in English are grouped together under one form). In addition I show that, contrary to what has been argued by Hacquard for French, the perfect in MA can give rise to AEs in the case of the saar auxiliary. I develop an analysis of the saar perfect that is inspired by Hacquard’s proposal for perfective: in the case of saar, contrary to kaan, the perfect links the eventuality to the actual world. While the discussion of AEs in relation to the modal \gdr\ are linked to the proposal that aspect scopes over the modal, I also examine the case of a modal expression that scopes over aspect: qad “might”. I show that in spite of the fact that aspect scopes below the modal, the contrast between perfective and imperfective in the embedded clause can still give rise to differences in the generation of AEs. This case is interesting because much previous literature on AEs has focused on languages in which aspect scopes over the modal. MA qad provides an example where the modal scopes over aspect, and it is still the case that AEs appear to be generated. In spite of the structural differences with \gdr\, my analysis of qad builds on Hacquard’s proposal for AEs with the perfective, appealing to her proposal for the ‘preservation of event description’ to account for the fact that properties of eventualities can remain stable across worlds.
The structure of the thesis is as follows: Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the empirical domain, situating aspect and modality in the description of MA; in addition it
iii provides an introduction to key theoretical concepts to be used in later chapters. Chapter 2 discusses AEs in the case of the root modal \gdr\, comparing perfective and imperfective. Chapter 3 extends the discussion of the modal to examples with the perfect, distinguishing between the kaan- and saar- perfects. Chapter 4 investigates the behaviour of qad and its interaction with perfective and imperfective complements. Chapter 5 offers a brief summary and concluding remarks.
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Poradní orgány a expertíza v české politice : epistémické komunity a jejich vliv na vysokoškolskou a důchodovou reformu / Advisory bodies and expertise in the Czech politics : epistemic communities and the influence on the reforms of higher education and pension systemMerklová, Kateřina January 2013 (has links)
Advisory Bodies and Expertise in the Czech Politics - Epistemic Communities and the Influence on the Reforms of Higher Education and Pension System Master thesis Bc. Kateřina Merklová The Master thesis Advisory Bodies and Expertise in the Czech Politics - Epistemic Communities and the Influence on the Reforms of Higher Education and Pension System concerns with the relation between politics and expertise. So-called epistemic community represents the knowledge interpreter that we consider an independent actor in the political process. In the theoretical part of the text, we have explained the original definition of the concept as well as its critics and case studies that cover various contexts. Following most of the authors, we have applied a looser definition of the concept and deconstructed its rigid criteria. The empirical part of the thesis presents a case study (N=4) based on comparative methods that analyzes variable influence of four particular epistemic communities (the authors of the White Paper on Tertiary Education, Bezdek's Committee, Bezdek's Committee II, and the National Economic Council) on policy-making process and its sources. Regarding our intention and research questions, we have chosen two qualitative methods - in-depth interviews and content analysis of relevant texts. We have...
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Logics of beliefViljoen, Elizabeth 04 1900 (has links)
The inadequacy of the usual possible world semantics of modal languages when the meaning of 'belief' is attached to the modal operator is discussed. Three other approaches are then investigated. In the case of Moore's autoepistemic logic it becomes possible to compare an agent's beliefs to 'reality', which cannot be done directly in the possible world semantics. Levesque's semantics makes explicit in the object language the notion of 'this is all the information the agent has', which plays an important role in nonmonotonic reasoning. Both of these approaches deal with ideal reasoners. The third approach, Konolige's deduction model, is based on a semantics capable of describing the beliefs of one or more resourcebounded agents. Finally, the AGM postulates for belief revision are discussed. / Computer Science / M.Sc. (Computer Science)
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Lärarens väg genom klassrummet : Lärande och skriftspråkande i bänkinteraktioner på mellanstadiet / Classroom Trajectories of Teaching, Learning and Literacy : Teacher-Student Desk Interaction in the Middle YearsTanner, Marie January 2014 (has links)
This dissertation takes an interest in learning and literacy in everyday interaction in the middle year classroom. It is based on a view of learning as emically construed in social interaction. Conversation Analysis (CA) and the concept of epistemic stance are used as a theoretical framing for describing in what way, and with what verbal and non-verbal resources, learning is achieved in desk interaction, i.e. when students work individually at their desks while the teacher moves around to support them. Almost without exceptions, these interactions involve the use of texts. Hence, they are viewed as situated literacy events that are part of the institutionally shaped literacy practices as described in the field of New Literacy Studies. The empirical data for this study comes from a video-ethnographic study in two middle year classrooms in grade four and five. Out of a total of 70 hours of video documentation, a selection of interrelated desk interactions was made. These were analyzed as learning trajectories and compared from two perspectives. Firstly, learning trajectories when a teacher repeatedly interacts with the same student about the same learning content were analyzed. Secondly, the changes in the teacher’s epistemic stance when interacting with different students about the same learning content in repeated desk interactions were studied. The analysis shows that the teacher’s trajectories through the classroom build infrastructures for learning, enabling differentiation between students within the constraints and possibilities of evolving routines. Learning in desk interaction mainly relies on the use of text references to index previously shared knowledge. Epistemic topicalizations and recurring semiotic fields are shown to be crucial resources for both maintaining and changing the epistemic stance of the participants towards the learning content constituted in interaction. A conclusion is that the shared experiences of teachers and students in collective literacy events serve as important resources for learning in individual desk interaction. / Baksidestext: Den här avhandlingen handlar om bänkinteraktioner på mellanstadiet. Med hjälp av videoanalyser utforskas lärares och elevers sociala samspel när elever arbetar enskilt med skriftliga uppgifter i sina bänkar, medan läraren rör sig runt i klassrummet för att hjälpa dem. Avhandlingen visar hur lärande i bänkinteraktioner sker till följd av lärares och elevers ömsesidiga samordning av tal, gester, blickar och texter. Längs lärarens väg genom klassrummet skapas möjligheter till skilda lärandeförlopp för olika elever, inom ramen för de rutiner som samtidigt formas. Instruktioner, lärobokstexter och bilder är viktiga resurser i dessa lärandeförlopp. De används i huvudsak för att uppmärksamma och påminna om sådant man tidigare läst och diskuterat tillsammans i klassen. En slutsats blir därför att lärares och elevers gemensamma erfarenheter från olika tillfällen har stor betydelse för lärande i bänkinteraktioner. Sammantaget framstår bänkarbetet som mera socialt än individuellt. Avhandlingen bidrar till en nyanserad förståelse av bänkinteraktioners pedagogiska potential, vilket diskuteras i relation till senare decenniers politiska individualiseringssträvanden. Den vänder sig till forskare, lärare och andra som är intresserade av lärande och skriftspråkande i klassrummets interaktion.
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Religion – evolutionens missfoster eller kärleksbarn? : Kognitionsvetenskaplig religionsforskning och dess relevans för religiösa trosföreställningars rationalitetKnutsson Bråkenhielm, Lotta January 2016 (has links)
This thesis is on Cognitive Science of Religion (CSR) and its relevance for the rationality of religious beliefs. An epistemical model for rationality is developed according to which: a person (or group of persons) is rational to hold a certain belief a) if this belief can be assumed to have been generated by one or more reliable cognitive mechanisms, b) applies whether or not she is aware of what these mechanisms are, but c) only as long as it does not exist or arise some reasons (defeaters) to question the belief; if they occur, she must d) reflect on it and find other reasons or grounds to hold the belief in question. Two different positions are examined, namely: 1) negative relevance: the findings and theories in CSR undermines the rationality of religious beliefs; 2) positive relevance: religious beliefs need not be irrational in the light of CSR, in fact CSR may actually support the rationality of religious beliefs. Two lines of argument can be distinguished among those who argue for a negative relevance: a) the natural explanations that are provided by CSR are preferable; and b) religious beliefs are irrational because they are caused by unreliable cognitive mechanisms. Among those who argue for positive relevance two arguments can be distinguised: a) religious beliefs seem to come naturally to humans and therefore are probably true; and b) CSR confirms empirically that we are equipped with a "divine mechanism" that there are reasons to believe is reliable. The conclusions are: CSR has negative relevance to beliefs in "finite supernatural agency", but not for the faith of "infinite supernatural agency". First, the first type of beliefs is easier to explain by being generated by unreliable cognitive mechanisms; secondly they are difficult to integrate with what we otherwise know about the world. A category that falls outside the scope of CSR and thus not even potentially can be affected, is beliefs in "supernatural non-agency". / The Impact of Religion – Challenges for Society, Law and Democracy
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Peut-on être blâmé pour ses croyances? : le déontologisme épistémique face au problème de l'involontarisme doxastiqueCôté-Bouchard, Charles 07 1900 (has links)
Peut-on parfois être blâmé pour ses croyances ? Selon les partisans du déontologisme épistémique, la pratique ordinaire consistant à blâmer et critiquer les gens pour leurs croyances est tout à fait légitime. Toutefois, d’autres philosophes soutiennent que malgré son omniprésence dans la vie de tous les jours, le blâme doxastique n’est jamais approprié. En effet, selon l’argument à partir de l’involontarisme doxastique, nous ne pouvons jamais être blâmés pour nos croyances puisque (1) nous pouvons être blâmés pour une croyance seulement si elle est sous notre contrôle volontaire et (2) nos croyances ne sont jamais sous notre contrôle volontaire.
Le but de ce mémoire est de déterminer si les déontologistes peuvent répondre de manière convaincante à cet argument. Autrement dit, pouvons-nous parfois être blâmés pour nos croyances malgré ce qu’en disent les anti-déontologistes, ou faut-il leur donner raison et rejeter la pratique du blâme doxastique ?
Pour répondre à cette question, je commence par clarifier l’argument anti-déontologiste en précisant la teneur de sa thèse centrale : l’involontarisme doxastique. Par la suite, je passe en revue différentes stratégies qui ont été proposées par des représentants du déontologisme pour défendre le blâme doxastique contre cet argument. Devant l’échec de ces réponses, je suggère une défense alternative du déontologisme selon laquelle l’involontarisme doxastique n’est pas incompatible avec le blâme doxastique. Si cette réponse est concluante, alors nous n’avons pas à donner raison aux anti-déontologistes : nous pouvons parfois être blâmés pour nos croyances. / Can we sometimes be blamed for our beliefs ? According to epistemic deontologism, the ordinary practice of blaming and criticizing people for their beliefs is a legitimate one. However, some philosophers argue that despite its pervasiveness in everyday life, doxastic blame is never appropriate. According to the argument from doxastic involuntarism, we can never be blamed for our beliefs since (1) we can be blamed for a belief only if it is under our voluntary control, and (2) our beliefs are never under our voluntary control.
The goal of this thesis is to determine whether deontologists can reply convincingly to this argument. In other words, can we sometimes be blamed for our beliefs despite what anti-deontologists claim, or do we have to accept the argument from doxastic involuntarism and reject the practice of doxastic blame ?
In order to answer that question, I first clarify the anti-deontologist argument by making more precise the nature of its central thesis: doxastic involuntarism. I then review different strategies proposed by deontologists to defend doxastic blame against this argument. Given the failure of these replies, I propose an alternative defense of deontologism according to which doxastic involuntarism is not incompatible with doxastic blame. If this reply is sound, then we do not have to accept the anti-deontologist argument: we can sometimes be blamed for our beliefs.
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Existe-t-il une seule normativité de la croyance? : analyse de la thèse de l'incommensurabilité aux vues de l'instrumentalisme de la croyanceMontplaisir, Samuel 09 1900 (has links)
Ce mémoire s'inscrit dans la constellation de questions regroupées sous l'étiquette de l'éthique de la croyance. Plus spécifiquement, il cherche à analyser la viabilité des jugements tout bien considéré portant sur les croyances lorsque des raisons de types distincts (raisons épistémiques et raisons pragmatiques) entrent en conflit. Cette analyse se fera à l'aune d'une recherche portant sur l'instrumentalisme de la croyance, la position avançant que les croyances sont instrumentales à nos intérêts et que, par conséquent, la normativité de la croyance se jauge en fonction de nos objectifs. L'instrumentalisme de la croyance est tombé sous le coup de plusieurs critiques dans les dernières années et se mémoire se donne comme mission d'en évaluer la portée. Si d'aventure l'instrumentalisme de la croyance devait être une position viable, il y a lieu de penser qu'il existe une commensurabilité possible entre raisons de différents types. / This thesis is part of a larger group of philosophical inquiries usually placed under the label of "Ethics of Belief". Specifically, my aim is to examine the possibility of all things considered judgments concerning beliefs for which there is a conflict between reasons of distinct kinds (epistemic reasons and pragmatic reasons). This inquiry will mostly concern epistemic instrumentalism, the position holding that one's beliefs are instrumental to one's own objectives and thus, that the rationality of beliefs must be an instrumental rationality. It appears that this position has been the aim of a few criticism in the recent years and my goal is to evaluate the strength of such criticism. If epistemic instrumentalism ends up being a viable thesis, we can expect that there may not be any incommensurability between reasons for belief of different kinds.
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Význam a české ekvivalenty "should" v závislých větách obsahových po hodnotících a direktivních výrazech / The meaning and Czech equivalents of "should" in subordinate nominal content clauses after evaluative and directive expressionsHráská, Michaela January 2013 (has links)
This diploma thesis examines functions of the modal verb should in nominal content clauses introduced by the conjunction that. The Czech counterparts of the English sentences are considered as well. The research focuses on the so-called putative should which occurs after main clauses with directive, epistemic, attitudinal, evaluative and volitional expressions. Should expressing intrinsic (root) modality (expressing permission, obligation or ability) is left out of account. The work pays attention to the basic classification of nominal content clauses deriving from a verbal form alternating with putative should. Two kinds of putative should will be dealt with, namely should after directive and volitional expressions which could have its alternative form in the present subjunctive and should after epistemic, attitudinal and evaluative expressions which could possibly alternate with the indicative. The work examines these verbal forms in relation to the intentional modality of the sentence in an independent form (e.g. declarative, interrogative or imperative sentence). The work is divided into two parts: theoretical and practical. The theoretical part of the work describes the basic classification of all central modal verbs in English and putative should in terms of its relation towards the...
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