O pós-Guerra Fria (1991-2006) apresenta uma mudança significativa no cenário estratégico: a maior acessibilidade da tecnologia militar e o surgimento de novas armas capazes de modificar o poder coercitivo dos países – como as Armas de Energia Direta – acabam pondo em cheque a idéia de que a primazia nuclear é condição suficiente para garantir a unipolaridade. Focando-se no atual recrudescimento das tensões entre EUA com a Rússia – especialmente com a proposta estadunidense de implementação do Escudo Antimíssil no Leste Europeu – e com a China, e analisando as relações de poder entre os três países, procuramos revelar que tipo de competição ocorrerá no Sistema Internacional nas próximas décadas. A presente dissertação analisa as reais possibilidades de que a primazia nuclear estadunidense se torne efetiva, uma vez que para tanto é necessário o desarmamento estratégico das demais potências. Como uma guerra nuclear entre os três países possui um custo político muito elevado as disputas tendem a ser decididas na esfera das operações. Para ilustrar essa última afirmação usamos um cenário contrafactual de guerra nuclear limitada entre Estados Unidos, Rússia e China, por meio do qual tentamos evidenciar as pré-condições táticas e operacionais para uma eventual vitória da coalizão sino-russa. / The evolution of the Post-Cold War (1991-2006) international system shows a significant amount of change regarding the strategic capabilities of United States, Russia, and China. The rise of a new class of strategic weapons called Directed Energy Weapons (lasers and high power microwaves), as well as the great costs associated with the quest for nuclear primacy, demand closer examination of the current assumption about the links between nuclear primacy and unipolar distribution of power in the International System. Starting with the current tensions between US and Russia, we try to reveal in this article what kind of competition might be observed in the International System over the next decade. The present work analyzes the real possibilities of the USA achieving an effective nuclear primacy condition, which requires the complete disarmament of all other powers. Since a nuclear war between the three countries has a very high political cost, disputes tend to be settled on the operational sphere. In order to demonstrate this final point, we made comparative use of two nuclear war scenarios. This works concludes by establishing the tactical and operational conditions that Russia and China seems to counting with in order to defeat United States if a shooting war comes.

A política, no sistema internacional do século XXI, será impactada pelas mudanças na base demográfica dos países. Ao mesmo tempo, aumenta a necessidade de Estados com acesso a tecnologias de ponta, ou seja, de grande polaridade, de utilizarem os recursos humanos de países em crescimento para a maximização de poder. O processo impacta a polarização com novas alianças de países. O uso da força necessita de pessoas para a defesa e a garantia da sobrevivência do Estado na Anarquia. Principalmente, em um cenário de guerra sistêmica com a utilização de armas nucleares que constituem as fiadoras das operações convencionais. Concomitantemente, a quantidade de pessoas na força de trabalho é a base das políticas de dissuasão nuclear dos Estados devido a capacidade de sobrevivência a um segundo ataque. / The policy in the twenty-first century international system, will be impacted by changes in the demographic base of countries. At the same time, increases the need for States with access to advanced technologies, ie, high polarity, use of human resources for countries to maximize growth of power. The polarization process impacts of new alliances with countries. The use of force requires people to defend and guarantee the survival of the state in Anarchy. Especially in a war scenario with the systemic use of nuclear weapons which are the guarantors of conventional operations. Concomitantly, the number of people in the workforce is the cornerstone of nuclear deterrence policies of the states over the survivability of a second attack.

Orientador: Shiguenoli Miyamoto / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T14:13:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Batista_GabrielaFerroFirmino_M.pdf: 576912 bytes, checksum: 2a43cf162c5f082ce2dcc8e5e620c29a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: A presente dissertação analisa as mudanças nos elementos domésticos e internacionais que influenciaram a decisão do governo brasileiro de aderir ao Tratado de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares (TNP) em 1998, após três décadas de rejeição a ele. Essa rejeição era justificada pelo caráter discriminatório do Tratado, que concedia privilégios aos países possuidores de armas nucleares e impedia o desenvolvimento tecnológico autônomo daqueles que não as possuíam. A pesquisa revelou que, em consonância com a explicação oficial, a alteração de postura com relação ao TNP foi fruto das mudanças que ocorreram no plano internacional após o fim da Guerra Fria, juntamente com as mudanças internas, com o fim do regime militar. A manutenção da renúncia ao TNP pareceu, então, infundada por ser incapaz de trazer benefícios práticos para o país e, além disso, causar danos políticos à imagem e à credibilidade externa do país, característica considerada essencial para a obtenção de vantagens no novo contexto internacional / Abstract: This Master's thesis analyzes the changes in domestic and international factors that influenced Brazilian government's decision to accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1998 after three decades rejecting it. This rejection was justified by the discriminatory character of the Treaty, which granted privileges to countries possessing nuclear weapons and prevented the autonomous technological development of those which didn't possess them. The survey showed that, in line with the official explanation, the change of attitude to the NPT was the result of the changes that have occurred internationally since the end of the Cold War, along with internal changes, with he end of military regime. The maintenance of rejection to the NPT seems to be, then, seless, for being unable to bring practical benefits to the country and also for causing political damage to the country's external image and credibility, a characteristic considered essential to obtain advantages in the new international context / Mestrado / Política Externa / Mestre em Relações Internacionais

nÃo hà / O objetivo desta DissertaÃÃo foi o de recuperar as diferentes percepÃÃes em torno dos fenÃmenos ocorridos na dÃcada de 1950, no estado do CearÃ, descritos como clarÃes, estrondos e objetos luminosos. Estes episÃdios repercutiram de forma controversa na imprensa local, na medida em que, de um lado, alguns consideravam como resultantes do progresso da CiÃncia e Tecnologia que permitiu a Corrida Espacial e Armamentista (que se tornou um dos ingredientes da disputa de poder entre EUA e URRS, durante a Guerra Fria) e, por outro lado, para outros, apareciam como fenÃmenos estranhos e inexplicÃveis para os quais se davam explicaÃÃes fantÃsticas. Consultando periÃdicos de diferentes tendÃncias â a revista americana Time, o jornal do PCB O Democrata, e jornais da imprensa local do Cearà como O Povo, UnitÃrio, O Jornal etc, alÃm de outros documentos (inclusive alguns sà recentemente liberados pelo Departamento de Defesa americano) -- procuro recuperar o debate que se estabeleceu e os sentimentos de euforia pelo progresso que representavam, assim como os de medo e de estranhamento, por parecerem fantÃsticos, bizarros e inusitados. / This Dissertation intends to recover the many different perceptions around some phenomena occurred in the 50âs, in the State of CearÃ, described as flashes of light, blasts and luminous objects. These events repercuted in a controversial way in the local press as, on one hand, some people considered them as a result of progress in Science and Technology that allowed Space and Arms Race (that become one of the ingredients of the power dispute between US and USSR in the Cold War) and, on the other hand, for some other people, they showed up as strange and inexplicable phenomena, to which were given fantastic explications. In a search through newspapers from many tendencies -- American Time magazine, the communist paper O Democrata, and other papers from Cearà local press, such as O Povo, UnitÃrio, O Jornal etc, besides some other documents (some of them just declassified by US Department of Defense) -- I intend to recover the debate that was established and the feelings of euphoria by the progress that they represented as well as those of fear and oddly, once they seemed fantastic, bizarre, and unusual.

The thesis deals with the Six-Party Talks on North Korean nuclear program between the U.S., the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. In the first part the theoretical bases -- multilateralism and the non-proliferation regime - are presented. In the second part the situation in North Korea is being analyzed with respect to the political regime of the country and to its nuclear program. In the last part the most important diplomatic initiatives aimed at dismantling North Korean nuclear sites are being presented with emphasis being put on the Six-Party Talks. In the conclusion of the thesis a change of the approach towards North Korea is proposed with regard to the change of the priorities that could lead to more successful diplomatic negotiations in the future.

Regarding the existence of nuclear weapons, which were never used all over atomic bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima as a tool of war against civilian or military targets during the Cold War, I try to give an explanation of "armed peace". I consider the question of why the two superpowers (the USA and the USSR) didn't start a "hot war" that would have been more likely nuclear. As an example of the most critical event will serve me Cuban Missile Crisis, with which can be the description of it understood in broader context. The paper points to the interrelations of opposing ideologies that related to atomic weapons have often drawn the same conclusions. I examine the military-strategic value of the atomic bombs which have shaped international relations troughtout the second half of the twentieth century. Besides the military aspects I also mention economic interpretation of the nuclear arms race and economic potential of the USSR and the USA. Why have in the first instance occured one-sided and than gradually overall disarment, reducing the number of nuclear warheads? I try to documented the explanation out of historical events also by using teoretical models.

The paper discusses how strategic nuclear capabilities possessed by the world’s largest nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, affect how their state leadership makes sense of the role of military force in international politics. Using the theoretical framework of the theory of nuclear revolution (Jervis 1989) and nuclear realism (van Munster &amp; Sylvest 2016), the author parses the ways in which the role of military force is framed in U.S. and Russian nuclear policy discourses in 2017-2020. For this purpose, the method of frame analysis is applied that draws on the writings of Goffman (1986) and van Hulst &amp; Yanow (2016). The paper concludes that both in Russia and the United States, the understanding of nuclear weapons is symbolic. In other words, policymakers agree upon the fact that nuclear war cannot be fought or won. However, while Moscow distinguishes between nuclear and non-nuclear military capabilities as instruments of diplomacy and coercion, the distinction is absent in Washington’s discourse, whereby nuclear weapons are considered but one aspect of state military might. In both states’ discourses, nuclear weapons have a connection to state identity, which is particularly pronounced in the case of Russia. Finally, U.S. policymakers talk about nuclear weapons “from a position of strength”, whereas Russian state leadership appeals to its nuclear capabilities to boost its international influence and reinforce its great power status. / <p>Grade: VG</p>

The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the development of the NATO's normative perception and thinking over the nuclear weapons and the nuclear sharing concept. While the nuclear sharing lays in the main area of the interest of this thesis, the approach towards the nuclear weapons itself is the inseparable component of this research. This thesis is divided into three main chapters. The chapter one explains the historical position of the nuclear weapons in the NATO thinking and the history of the nuclear sharing in relation to the NPT. It also introduces the basic theoretical debate and definition of the concept. The chapter two explains the chosen methodological framework, describes the set of analysed documents and sets rules for the coding of those documents. For the purposes of this analysis, I decided to use the methodological framework of the content analysis, which is created through the content analysis software NVivo 12. It is followed by the chapter three which is visualising and explaining the results of the content analysis created following the script already described in the chapter two.

Presented diploma thesis is pursued to the topic of conceptual evolution of civil protection in the last century's 50's to 70's period. This period of time, population safety was secured by so called Civil Defence. Noticeable atribute of all the Civil Defence measures impacting population was mainly protection against mass destruction weapons. That is why protection against mass destruction weapons is given the most attention in this diploma thesis. Target of the thesis is historical analyse concerning Civil Defence and its evolution in Czechoslovakia in noted period. Out of it the thesis sketches also general formation and evolution of civil protection in previous period. Diploma thesis is done based on study of available literature and mainly based on accessible sources from military archive in Prague. Thesis is divided to six chapters, chronologically describing the most important milestones in Civil Defence conceptual evolution. Emphasis is laid on description of its organisational structure and way of population protection against mass destruction weapons. During studies of these sources, the emphasis was laid also on military evaluation of country territory according to level of expected threat by aerial attack that time, or later by nuclear weapon of mass destruction in case of war conflict....

Disarmament remains a contested topic within the nuclear weapons debate and it is included as one of the mutually reinforcing pillars of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). However, when the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) was mandated by UNGA in 2016 and later entered into force in 2021, it was immediately rejected by all nuclear-weapons states – China, France, Russia, the UK and the US – and their allies. The paradox of such a negative response to the new treaty despite their alleged loyalty to the disarmament pillar of the NPT was the starting point of the thesis and was examined through the theoretical lenses of constructivism, neo-liberal institutionalism and structural realism to pinpoint which offered the most tangible answer to the question at hand. The research was conducted by utilizing the method of qualitative content analysis on statements and working papers by the five nuclear-weapons states, and it concluded that – while all theories brought up interesting points – structural realism provided the most useful perspective on the matter through its take on states’ insecurity towards each other