In this study, a three-dimensional, three-phase dynamic simulation model based on geological investigations of Korolev oilfield in Kazakhstan was used as a development planning tool in order to improve performance of three new wells. The model, developed previously by means of a seismic study, well log and core data, incorporating with characteristics of oilfield productivity, properties of reservoir, liquids and gases that are saturating the hydrocarbon-bearing horizon can be used to calculate development parameters for Korolev field, including production well locations, drilling schedules, and to facilitate both long-term and short-term forecasting for the purposes of optimizing the hydrocarbon recovery from the field. The objective of this work is to assess the impact of adding 3 extra producing wells and find ways to optimize cumulative production with the least impact on the existing development plan by means of deeper understanding subsurface dynamic processes of the Korolev field. The challenge is a high degree of connectivity between wells in the productive formation throughout the field so that any change of production parameters affects the whole field&rsquo / s cumulative production. Trying to find a solution to optimum production of the reservoir forecast studies were carried out, the impact of each new well on development parameters was defined, sub-surface processes changes due to extra producers lead-in were explained and as a result of this thesis two optimization models were proposed, one of which will bring nearly 9.7 million barrels more oil.

[pt] No mundo competitivo e globalizado, dadas as inúmeras possibilidades de alocação de capital e as incertezas econômicas intrínsecas às decisões de investimento, a seleção de projetos lucrativos é um elemento de fundamental importância para o sucesso das empresas. Os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de investimentos, como o fluxo de caixa descontado (FCD), vêm sendo muito criticados por não capturarem de maneira adequada as flexibilidades existentes nos projetos. As vantagens de incluir a flexibilidade gerencial e a utilização mais freqüente da teoria de opções reais na avaliação de projetos permitem ampliar as discussões teóricas dos métodos utilizados para tal avaliação. A presente dissertação tem por finalidade a aplicação do Método dos Mínimos Quadrados de Monte Carlo (LSM) na avaliação econômica de projetos de Exploração e Produção de Petróleo (E&P). Para o cálculo das opções reais com o LSM foi construído um programa em VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) que, além de calcular o valor das opções, permite executar análises de sensibilidade. Para a validação do método, utilizou-se a aproximação analítica de Bjerksund & Stensland, por ser uma das mais utilizadas na avaliação de opções reais e por produzir a curva de exercício ótimo dessas opções. Na busca dos parâmetros a serem utilizados neste estudo, simulou-se um fluxo de caixa de um projeto de E&P. Por fim, os resultados obtidos não podem ser considerados definitivos, apenas poderão balizar o desenvolvimento e o aprimoramento da utilização do método LSM em Opções Reais. / [en] In a globalized and competitive world, given the many possibilities of capital allocation and inherent economic uncertainties in investment decisions, the selection of profitable projects is an element of fundamental importance for companies’ success. The traditional methods for investments valuation, such as discounted cash flow (DCF), have been being criticized for not capturing adequately projects flexibilities. The advantages of including management flexibility and more frequent use of the real options theory in the evaluation of projects allow us to expand the theoretical discussions of the methods used for valuation. This study aims to apply the least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method in economic valuation of upstream oil projects. For calculating real options with the LSM, a program in VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) language was built. Besides calculating the options value, it lets you run a sensitivity analysis. To validate the method, the analytical solution of Bjerksund & Stensland was used, as it is one of the most used in real options valuation and produces a graph of the optimal exercise for those options. In search for parameters to be used, a cash flow for an upstream oil project was simulated. Finally, the results can not be considered definitive; they can only guide the development and improvement of the use of LSM in Real Options.

Apresenta-se um modelo matemático que avalia numericamente a estabilidade do estado estacionário para escoamentos água-ar em sistemas pipeline-riser de geometria variável. Uma análise a partir da teoria de estabilidade linear é aplicada a um modelo matemático adequado ao escoamento água-ar no sistema pipeline-riser. O modelo considera equações de continuidade para a fase líquida e para a fase gasosa, admite-se escoamento unidimensional e em condição isotérmica. O líquido é considerado incompressível enquanto que a fase gasosa é considerada um gás ideal. Admite-se uma equação de momento simplificada para mistura onde despreza-se a inércia (NPW - Modelo No Pressure Wave) e o padrão de escoamento local é definido com base nas condições do escoamento e na inclinação local. Assim, a intermitência severa é controlada principalmente pela gravidade no riser e pela compressibilidade do gás no pipeline. Tanto a correlação de fluxo de deriva quanto o cálculo da queda de pressão por atrito, adotados como lei de fechamento do modelo, são determinados em função do padrão de escoamento. Injeção de gás e válvula de choke são consideradas, respectivamente, na base e no topo do riser. O modelo é aplicado à sistemas pipeline-riser com escoamento água-ar citados na literatura. Os resultados da análise de estabilidade linear numérica são comparados aos resultados experimentais e numéricos apresentando uma excelente concordância. / A mathematical model that numerically evaluates the stability of the stationary state for hilly terrain air-water flows systems is presented. Numerical linear stability analysis is performed to a suitable mathematical model for the two-phase flows in a pipeline-riser system. The mathematical model considers the continuity equations for the liquid and gas phases, one-dimensional flow and isothermal conditions. The liquid is assumed incompressible while the gas phase is considered as an ideal gas. A simplified momentum equation for the mixture, neglecting inertia (NPW - No pressure wave model) is considered and the local flow pattern is defined based on the flow conditions and the local inclination. In this way, severe slugging is controlled mainly by gravity in the riser and compressibility in the pipeline. The void fraction and friction pressure drop, utilized as closure laws, are determined based on the local flow pattern. Gas injection at the bottom of the riser and a choke valve at the top are considered. The model is applied to air-water pipeline-riser systems reported in the literature. Numerical linear stability analysis results are compared with experimental and numerical results reported in the literature with excellent agreement.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T14:33:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Dante_Trindade_Avila.pdf: 3385238 bytes, checksum: 3a6019cfb9071a2701125d07c8a61d4d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-12-13 / The tung is a temperate deciduous species of the Euphorbiaceae family that needs about 350 to 400 chilling hours to resume growth after winter. This species is cultivated in order to produce oil, which is extracted from seeds by pressing or using solvents. The results of research on this crop in Brazil are few. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate genetic variability in two tung populations in Pelotas, evaluate the yield of commercial plantations in the Serra Gaúcha region and compare methods of vegetative propagation. The observations occurred during growing season 2007/2008, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010. The populations showed variability in yield, earliness and number of female and male flowers. The average productivity of 8.232kg.ha-1 of dried fruit with the almond oil content of 47% demonstrates high oil yield, exceeding annual crops currently grown in Brazil; producing plants from seeds demands previous seed scarification; for vegetative propagation, the best method is the use of grafting cleft and cleft, with herbaceous branches. / O tungue é uma espécie de clima temperado da família Euphorbiaceae, caducifólia, que necessita cerca de 350 a 400 horas de frio para a indução floral e frutificação. A espécie é cultivada com objetivo de produzir óleo, o qual é extraído das sementes, por prensagem. Poucos são os resultados de pesquisas com esta cultura no Brasil. Portanto o objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar a variabilidade genética em populações de tungue em Pelotas, avaliar o rendimento de plantios comerciais na Serra Gaúcha e comparar métodos de propagação. Para tanto, foram observadas duas populações de tungue na Embrapa Clima Temperado, quatro plantios comerciais na Serra Gaúcha e realizados experimentos com sementes e enxertia. As observações ocorreram nas safras de 2007/2008, 2008/2009 e 2009/2010. Observou-se que os plantios apresentaram variabilidade nas características produtividade, precocidade e número de flores femininas e masculinas. A produtividade média foi de 8.232kg.ha-1 de fruto seco, com teor de óleo na amêndoa de 47%, o que demonstra alto rendimento de óleo, superior a culturas anuais atualmente cultivadas no Brasil; para produzir mudas via sementes necessita-se de escarificação prévia das sementes; para a propagação vegetativa o melhor método é a utilização da enxertia de garfagem do tipo fenda cheia, com ramos herbáceos.

The thesis deals with the analysis of the oil market with emphasis on the period from 2010 to May 2017. The aim of the thesis is to test the sensitivity of the oil price to the selected fundamental indicators and trading positions of the traders according to CFTC data. The work, in addition to the theoretical introduction, contains information on key fundamentals such as US oil production, the process of publishing reports on the state of oil stocks in the US, and the process of publishing reports on oil market traders' positions and subsequent data analysis. It confirmed that the price of oil correlates significantly with traders' positions, but the Granger test suggested that the change in the price of oil is causally affecting the position of traders and not vice versa.

Nul autre vase en céramique n'aura mieux que le dolium rendu compte de la démesure romaine. C'est par ces mots que débute la présente synthèse qui porte sur le dolium en Gaule Narbonnaise à l'époque romaine.D'abord importée par les Grecs en Italie dans le courant du VIIIe s. av. J.-C., cette grande jarre de stockage en terre cuite va peu à peu conquérir l'ensemble de la Méditerranée nord-occidentale. Parce qu'il constitue un conteneur parfaitement adapté au climat chaud du pourtour méditerranéen, il devient dans le courant du IIe s. av. J.-C. le symbole de la viticulture et de l'oléiculture intensive, et ce au moins jusqu'au IIIe s. ap. J.-C.L'archéologie a longtemps délaissé ce matériel lourd et souvent informe qui jonche pourtant le sol des anciens chais et celliers à dolia des exploitations agricoles antiques. À travers le cas particulier de la Gaule Narbonnaise, le présent travail se propose de réévaluer la place qu'a pu jouer ce conteneur dans le développement économique de cette province, entre le Ier s. av. J.-C. et le IIIe s. ap. J.-C. Utilisant les méthodes de l'archéologie classique, cette étude s'inscrit aussi dans une perspective pluridisciplinaire destinée à mettre en synergie les données archéologiques, archéométriques, épigraphiques et anthropologiques.L'ensemble de la documentation rassemblée constitue une synthèse inédite des connaissances sur le thème du dolium, depuis sa fabrication jusqu'à son utilisation, qui vise à mettre en évidence les modalités du déploiement de ce formidable outil au service du développement économique impérial. / The dolium as no other pottery represents the roman excessiveness. By these words begins the present synthesis that deals with dolium in Gallia Narbonensis.First introduced by Greeks in Italy during the VIIIth s. B.C., this large jar in terracotta will gradually conquer all northwest Mediterranean. As it is perfectly adapted to warm climate of Mediterranean periphery, it became during the IIth s. B.C. the wine and oil intensive production's symbol, at least until the IIIth s. A.D.Archaeology has for a long time neglected this heavy materiel whereas it strews the floor of antics cave and cellar. Through the example of Gallia Narbonnensis, this study aims at reassessing the position of this container in the economic expansion of this province between the Ith s. B.C. and the IIIth s. A.D. Using classical archaeological method, this research includes also a multidisciplinary viewpoint intended to synergise archaeological, archaeometrical, epigraphical and anthropological data.All this documentation constitutes an unprecedented synthesis on dolium, from its manufacturing to its use. The final goal is to bring out the model of deployment of this great instrument, which is assigned to the imperial economic development.

Since the oil crisis of 1973-74, the problem faced by the typical oil-producing country has been that of developing a production structure with which the excess supplies of financial capital available to it could be transformed into human and physical capital over time. Because the inflows of oil funds were unanticipated, the initial attempt at the utilization of such funds resulted in the haphazard piling up of imports at rates which did not correspond to the absorptive capacity of a non-industrial oil-producing economy, thereby limiting the contribution of these oil revenues to development. This study suggests a framework within which the inflow of oil-funds can be reasonably anticipated and .the rate of oil production in each OPEC member-country geared towards its absorptive capacity. The model is applied within the context of dynamic multi-sectoral planning for Nigeria over the period 1974 to 2001. This study has a distinct two-tier approach to the optimal determination of oil-production and oil-revenue utilization for OPEC as a whole and for Nigeria in particular. First, a dynamic programming model of the world oil market with OPEC as a monopolistic organization trying to maximize the discounted stream of net revenues accruing to its members is developed and solved. Then, the optimal rate of oil extraction determined is allocated to individual OPEC members on the-basis of historical market shares. In the second part of the study, the results of the oil sub-model were integrated with a dynamic multi-sectoral planning model with the anticipated revenues as maximum levels of uncompensated transfers of funds from the oil sector for financing the plan. In this way, Nigeria's capacity to absorb oil revenues can be determined in an optimal way. This procedure was applied to long term planning for Nigeria over nine planning periods from 1974 to 2001 by use of large-scale linear programming techniques. Simulation experiments were also conducted with the planning model in order to determine the effects of changes in the model's basic parameters on the economy's absorptive capacity and the major macroeconomic variables. Our results indicate that Nigeria's capacity to absorb oil revenues far exceeds the revenue-inflows that could derive from current allocations to it by OPEC. Thus, Nigeria can be expected to agitate for increases in the market share allocated to it by OPEC or to seek further increases in oil price while keeping within OPEC production norms. This would be particularly profitable for Nigeria up to 1986 after which it would probably reach the limit ·of its absorption capacity. Our computational experience with the planning model also indicates that Nigeria's future prospects will depend on several goals embodied in the model as contraints, the most important of which are -the rate of growth of imports that is permitted by explicit government policy, the savings rate that is set as a target, and the manner in which the export earnings from the oil sector are made available to the domestic economy. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Yes / The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model for supporting the management of risks in supply chain. This proposed model is applied to the case of the oil industry in Nigeria. A Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) is developed to measure the significance of the influence of risk management strategy on mitigating disruption risks and their correlations with the performance of activities in the supply chain and relevance of key performance measures in the organisation. The model considered seven aspects: behavioural-based management strategy, buffer based oriented management strategy, exploration and production risks, environmental and regulatory compliance risks, geopolitical risks, supply chain performance, and organisational performance measures. A survey questionnaire was applied to collect data to populate the model, with 187 participants from the oil industry. Based on the PLS-SEM methodology, an optimised risk management decision-making method was developed and accomplished. The results show that behavioural-based mechanism predicts the capacity of the organisation to manage risks successfully in its supply chain. The approach proposed provides a new and practical methodology to manage disruption risks in supply chains. Further, the behavioural-based mechanism can help to formulate risk management strategies in the oil industry. / The full-text of this article will be released for public view at the end of the publisher embargo, 12 months from first publication date.

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As easy target reservoirs are depleted around the world, the need for intelligent enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods increases. The first part of this work is focused on modeling aspects of novel chemical EOR methods for naturally fractured reservoirs (NFR) involving wettability modification towards more water wet conditions. The wettability of preferentially oil wet carbonates can be modified to more water wet conditions using alkali and/or surfactant solutions. This helps the oil production by increasing the rate of spontaneous imbibition of water from fractures into the matrix. This novel method cannot be successfully implemented in the field unless all of the mechanisms involved in this process are fully understood. A wettability alteration model is developed and implemented in the chemical flooding simulator, UTCHEM. A combination of laboratory experimental results and modeling is then used to understand the mechanisms involved in this process and their relative importance. The second part of this work is focused on modeling surfactant/polymer floods using a fully implicit scheme. A fully implicit chemical flooding module with comprehensive oil/brine/surfactant phase behavior is developed and implemented in general purpose adaptive simulator, GPAS. GPAS is a fully implicit, parallel EOS compositional reservoir simulator developed at The University of Texas at Austin. The developed chemical flooding module is then validated against UTCHEM. / text