本研究採取固定效果( fixed effect ) panel data模型，分析影響中國大陸外商直接投資( FDI )的決定性因素，共分為三個面向進行實證，第一個面向係按FDI投資區域之不同，而分為東部沿海與中西部地區進行估計；第二個面向則按FDI投資產業之不同，分為三大產業進行分析；第三個面向係以FDI之來源地區為依據，共分為八個主要FDI來源地區探討其決定性因素。 在分區估計方面，透過一般化最小平方法( generalized least squares, GLS )進行估計，得到的結果顯示，東部地區係以市場區位來吸引FDI前來投資，例如市場商機與較高的對外開放程度；而中西部地區則以生產區位來吸引FDI，如低廉的勞動成本、地方基礎建設水準，換言之，兩地區之間在影響FDI的因素上完全不同，另一方面，針對固定效果的觀察發現，地理位置位在東部地區的省市，固定效果明顯高於中西部地區，因此東部地區的確比中西部地區具有較佳的條件以吸引FDI。 若按FDI所投資的三大產業進行實證，以探討FDI之決定性因素，其估計結果顯示，第一產業( 農、林、漁、牧業 ) FDI的影響因素為對外開放程度，具有負面排擠FDI的效果，而第二產業( 製造業、建築業等 ) FDI的影響因素則為市場規模、工資率、高品質勞動力供應與對外開放程度，除工資率為負面影響外，其他因素皆為正向效果，第三產業( 服務業 )因樣本期間中國大陸尚未放寬外資的進入限制，故僅有基礎建設與高品質勞動力供應是影響FDI的決定性因素。 在中國大陸不同來源國FDI之決定性因素方面，實證結果發現，中國大陸高速的經濟成長率會吸引美國、新加坡、台灣的廠商前來投資，低廉的工資水準則形成對美國、南韓、新加坡以及台灣的吸引力，而中國大陸若加強研發能力，可促使美國、日本、南韓、新加坡、台灣增加直接投資，但廠商過度集中所導致的高度競爭環境，卻會排擠掉英國、香港的FDI，本研究也考慮高品質勞動供應的影響，以香港、台灣廠商較注重高品質勞動力是否充分供應，另一方面，對外開放程度的高低對日本、新加坡、香港、台灣的廠商具有正面效果，對德國廠商則有負面影響。 隨著中國大陸加入世界貿易組織( WTO )後，中國政府對外資的政策勢必更加開放，在中國大陸龐大市場與廉價生產要素的誘惑下，預期會有更多外國資金投入中國大陸，中國做為世界工廠的地位將更加穩固，對我國而言，面對中國經濟崛起所導致的全球經濟整合以及產業分工趨勢，我國必須採取正面的態度來思考中國大陸問題，善用本身所具備的充沛資金與研發能力，以及與中國大陸同文同種的優勢，積極進入大陸市場，一方面應用其廉價勞動力，一方面搶佔大陸市場佔有率，將中國大陸做為我國經濟實力的延伸，我國廠商方能在國際競爭潮流下取得生存利基，進而從中國市場打入全球市場，則我國未來的經濟前景必將大有可為！

Submitted by Marcos Ritel Franco Júnior (marcosritel@gmail.com) on 2016-04-13T20:51:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 679285 bytes, checksum: f12011f49419f56a55fe0863eb8eb086 (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Marcos, Favor alterar seu trabalho de acordo com as normas ABNT: 1 – a fonte padrão deve ser Times New Roman, tamanho 12. 2 – capa: O nome Getulio não tem acento. Favor arrumar em todas as páginas que constam o nome da Fundação. 3 – Agradecimentos: Deve constar em caixa alta (o título) e o texto deve estar formatado normalmente, sem o pulo de linhas. on 2016-04-14T14:06:14Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcos Ritel Franco Júnior (marcosritel@gmail.com) on 2016-04-14T18:10:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) / Rejected by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Marcos, Favor alterar o tamanho dos títulos para 12px. Caso esteja correto, favor mandar o arquivo em word por e-mail para que eu confira. Atenciosamente, Letícia Monteiro 3799-3631 leticia.dsouza@fgv.br on 2016-04-14T18:18:00Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcos Ritel Franco Júnior (marcosritel@gmail.com) on 2016-04-14T18:38:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Letícia Monteiro de Souza (leticia.dsouza@fgv.br) on 2016-04-14T18:39:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-14T19:58:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 diss_MarcosRitel_final.pdf: 609592 bytes, checksum: 9af885fd5d9dccd2ef6e98b967883279 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-21 / This dissertation uses an empirical gravity equation approach to study the relationship between nonreciprocal trade agreements (NRTAs) and members’ trade flows. Estimations relate bilateral imports to trade policy variables using a very comprehensive dataset with over fifty years of data. Results show that meager average trade effects exist only if members are excluded from the world trading system or if they are very poor. As trade flows between NRTA members are already rising before their creation, results also suggest a strong endogeneity concerning their formation. Moreover, estimations show that uncertainty and discretion tend to critically hinder NRTA’s performance. On the other hand, reciprocal trade agreements show the opposite pattern regardless of members’ income status.Encouraging developing countries’ openness to trade through reciprocal liberalization emerges consequently as a possible policy implication. / Esta dissertação estuda a relação entre acordos comerciais não recíprocos e fluxos de comércio entre seus membros. Com o auxílio de equações de gravidade e uma base de dados bastante extensa, estimam-se regressões que permitem observar o impacto de variáveis de política comercial em fluxos bilaterais de comércio. Os resultados mostram que, em média, o impacto comercial de acordos não recíprocos é bastante modesto e se dá em apenas uma situação: quando exportadores estão excluídos do sistema multilateral de comércio. Esse quadro se mantém quando exportadores são alguns dos 'Least Developed Countries' definidos pela Organização das Nações Únidas. Nesse caso, entretanto, o impacto positivo do acordo é maior. Os resultados também sugerem a existência de forte endogeneidade na formação de acordos não recíprocos, uma vez que um aumento nos fluxos comerciais já é observável 10 anos antes da sua criação. Além disso, estimações indicam que incerteza e arbítrio são pontos fundamentais que atrapalham o seu desempenho. Por outro lado, acordos recíprocos de comércio apresentam efeitos positivos e bastante fortes independente do nível de riqueza de seus membros. Encorajar o envolvimento de países em desenvolvimento em liberalizações recíprocas surge então como uma possível recomendação de política.

This thesis aims to understand the determinants of car ownership in the Swedish regions containing the largest cities: Skåne, Stockholm, and Västra Götaland. This is done by performing a fixed effects regression analysis as well as creating and comparing different predictive models. Both socioeconomic and spatial factors are looked at. The data used in the study is on a Demographic Statistic Zone level for the years 2016-2021. The data consists of approximately 90 variables that are narrowed down to 12 variables based on the level of existing multicollinearity, which are used in the final models. The results from the fixed effects regression show that variables such as population density, age, income, house owning type, and house type are the main influencers on car ownership. These results are similar for the specific regions; however, some differences are discovered, pointing out the disadvantages in creating a generalized model. The results of the predictive models shows that a Long Short-Term Memory model performs better than Random Forrest Regression and OLS, however the performance of the latter two models is considered satisfying enough making them superior as they are easier to interpret and more established within the industry. The region-specific predictive models perform equally well as the ones created from all the data. In conclusion, it can be said that the determinants of car ownership that are mentioned align well with the previous studies made and are considered reliable. Regarding which predictive model to use OLS should be considered sufficient even if more complex methods perform better.

Presently fewer than one in ten patented inventions are green, while it is broadly assumed that a substantially larger fraction will be needed to address the climate challenge. Recent literature has addressed this topic by developing theoretical growth models with endogenous and directed technical change. An empirical application of this theoretical framework on the automotive industry has shown that firms tend to innovate more in electric cars when fuel prices rise, and also when they can benefit from spillovers in clean technology. Although transitioning to electric cars is important for a green future, today's electricity is mainly derived from non-renewable sources. This paper focuses on solar power, which has large potential to provide the economy with clean energy. We construct micro-level panel data with observations from nearly 200 countries over a 20-year period and investigate how energy prices, R&D-subsidies, path-dependence and financial markets influence innovative activities. The results provide robust evidence for the role of directed technical change in the transition to clean energy. / Actualmente menos de una en cada diez invenciones patentadas es "verde" cuando, sin embargo, es ampliamente aceptado que una mayor proporción de este tipo de patentes es necesaria para afrontar el reto climático. Recientemente la literatura económica ha incorporado el cambio climático mediante el desarrollo de modelos de crecimiento endógeno con cambio tecnológico dirigido. Una aplicación empírica de esta literatura en el sector automovilístico ha demostrado que las empresas innovan más en coches híbridos y eléctricos cuando los precios del petróleo aumentan y, también, cuando los productores se benefician de un mayor conocimiento en tecnologías limpias. Aunque la transición a los coches eléctricos representa un paso importante para un futuro verde, la mayoría de la electricidad es todavía generada a través de fuentes de energía no renovables. Esta investigación sin embargo se centra en el sector solar, que tiene el potencial de satisfacer todas nuestras necesidades energéticas con energía limpia. Mediante la construcción de un panel (micro) de datos longitudinales con cobertura de toda la industria solar durante un periodo de 20 años analizamos cómo los precios de la energía, los subsidios a I+D, la dependencia del camino, y los mercados financieros afectan a las actividades innovadoras. Los resultados de esta investigación proporcionan evidencia sólida a favor del cambio tecnológico dirigido en la transición a una economía limpia.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth is an important issue for both developed and developing countries through which the extent of economic growth and the sophistication of the country’s financial markets are linked. The research studies the existence of a relationship between financial development and economic growth using a sample of BRICS and G-7 countries for the period of 1996 to 2013. The study objective was to conduct a comparative analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth within BRICS and G-7 countries. A panel data analysis was used to analyse secondary data from 5 BRICS countries (Brazil. Russia, India, China and South Africa) and G-7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan and United States).Variables used include, economic growth, stock market capitalisation, total investment growth, interest rates and population growth. This study found that real interest rates and total investment is positively related to economic growth in both BRICS and G-7; while other variables such as stock market size, do play a significant role in explaining economic growth in both BRICS and G-7 countries and insignificant variables such as population growth. Findings of this study suggests there are no major difference between developed and developing countries with regards to their financial development and economic growth. This study may assist BRICS and G-7 countries to improve their economic growth structure and financial development systems over time.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth is an important issue for both developed and developing countries through which the extent of economic growth and the sophistication of the country’s financial markets are linked. The research studies the existence of a relationship between financial development and economic growth using a sample of BRICS and G-7 countries for the period of 1996 to 2013. The study objective was to conduct a comparative analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth within BRICS and G-7 countries. A panel data analysis was used to analyse secondary data from 5 BRICS countries (Brazil. Russia, India, China and South Africa) and G-7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan and United States).Variables used include, economic growth, stock market capitalisation, total investment growth, interest rates and population growth. This study found that real interest rates and total investment is positively related to economic growth in both BRICS and G-7; while other variables such as stock market size, do play a significant role in explaining economic growth in both BRICS and G-7 countries and insignificant variables such as population growth. Findings of this study suggests there are no major difference between developed and developing countries with regards to their financial development and economic growth. This study may assist BRICS and G-7 countries to improve their economic growth structure and financial development systems over time.

The introduction of the single currency (Euro) in Europe has been referred to as the ‘world’s largest economic experiment’ and has led to major research on the effects of the adoption of a common currency on economic activity with considerable emphasis on its effect on trade flows at the macroeconomic level. However, the investigation of the euro effect on individual sectors has received very little attention and this provides the motivation for the research. The main contribution of this thesis is to the sectoral analysis of the single currency’s effect on bi-lateral trade flows, specifically the effects on the transport equipment manufacturing sector. In order to achieve this, a comparison of the different estimation methods applied in the gravity model literature will be employed to investigate this effect and to identify the factors affecting trade in this sector. This study uses a panel data set which comprises the most recent information on bilateral trade for the EU15 countries from 1990 to 2008. This research aims to build on the results obtained in previous studies by employing a more refined empirical methodology and associated tests. The purpose of the tests is to ensure that the euro’s effect on trade is isolated from the other pro- trade policies of the European integration processes, particularly the introduction of the Single Market. The desirable feature of this approach is that, while other studies limit their attention to a particular issue (zero trade flow, time trend, sectoral analysis, cross-correlation, etc.), very few, if any, apply a selection of techniques. Overall, the results demonstrate that the single currency’s effect on trade in this sector is limited with only the fixed effects formulation with year dummy variables showing a significant positive effect of the euro. An obvious policy implication for countries looking to adopt a single currency is that they should be cautious regarding the potential for growth in intra-bloc trade in a particular sector, although they will benefit from the on-going process of integration.

The aim of our study is to investigate the effect of immigrants on wages for natives with divergent skill level within one country. Skill level is measured as education level and the purpose is to focus on the level where it according to us is a lack in research, namely the effect on high skilled native-born worker wages. Further, our contribution to the already existing studies may be considered to be a complement. Using panel data, collected from the time period 2000-2008 for the 290 municipalities in Sweden to get regional variation, we investigate and interpret the estimated outcome of how wages for native-born workers in the Swedish labor market respond to immigration into Sweden. The main findings, when controlling for age, unemployment, and differences between year and municipalities in this study are on the short run, in line with the theory. The closer to a substitute the native-born and foreign-born workers are, the greater are the adverse effect on the wage for native-born, given that we assume immigrants as low skilled. The effect on wage for high skilled native workers in short run, when assuming immigrants and natives as complement, is positive, i.e. the wage for high skilled natives increases as the share of immigrants increases. The effect on high skilled native-born wages is positive even in mid-long run and adverse for the low and medium skilled native-workers. This is not an expected outcome since we according to theory predict the wage to be unaffected in mid-long run. This may be the result of errors in the assumption that immigrants are low skilled, or that five years is a too short time to see the expected effect in the long run; the Swedish labor market may need more time to adjust to what we predict the outcome to be.

FDI inflow to developing countries has shown a drastic increase in the past few decades. Accordingly, many policy makers and academics are concerned about policies that attract FDI inflows to enhance economic growth from the positive spillover effects of FDI. Hence this study examines the general impact of FDI on the economic growth of 56 developing countries for the period 1985-2014. In order to analyze the growth effect of FDI into different macroeconomic situations, the sample countries are grouped into 24 low-income developing countries and 32 upper middle-income countries. The overall panel data analysis based on endogenous growth theory supported the positive growth effect of FDI for the pooled 56 countries and upper middle- income countries. However the growth effect of FDI for low-income countries tend to be statistically significant but negative. Moreover, to investigate the absorptive capacity of the host country an interactive term of FDI and human capital is included to estimate the general model. The regression results from the interactive term denote that the growth effect of FDI is dependent on the level of human capital in the host country. Hence a minimum level of human capital is essential in order to maximize and absorb the positive growth effect of FDI.

This study suggests a two-step approach to identifying and interpreting regional convergence clubs in Europe. The first step involves identifying the number and composition of clubs using a space-time panel data model for annual income growth rates in conjunction with Bayesian model comparison methods. A second step uses a Bayesian space-time panel data model to assess how changes in the initial endowments of variables (that explain growth) impact regional income levels over time. These dynamic trajectories of changes in regional income levels over time allow us to draw inferences regarding the timing and magnitude of regional income responses to changes in the initial conditions for the clubs that have been identified in the first step. This is in contrast to conventional practice that involves setting the number of clubs ex ante, selecting the composition of the potential convergence clubs according to some a priori criterion (such as initial per capita income thresholds for example), and using cross-sectional growth regressions for estimation and interpretation purposes. (authors' abstract)