I examine the relationship between the electoral security of congressmen, measured as vote margins in the previous election, and the support Members of Congress offer to their party. I develop a theory that predicts safe members will be more willing to support than vulnerable members and leaders demand more loyalty from safe members than vulnerable. This arrangement is rational and beneficial for leaders and both types of members. Using an OLS regression, I find basic support for my theory.

For the past several decades the South has moved toward one-party Republican control, and yet the mega-southern state of Florida has not kept pace with the greater Southern Republican realignment for candidates running for statewide office. Instead, Florida has exhibited a Southern lag, where rural counties maintain higher Democratic registration than voting levels in supporting Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate in the same general election year. There has been a gradual regional dealignment occurring in rural counties that are closer to the Deep Southern states of Alabama and Georgia. Using a range of aggregate Florida county election and registration data, research found the percentage of white voters and percentage of registered Democrats that comprise counties effect the Democratic deviation. These results have implications for campaign strategy and can be used in campaign targeting efforts.

I examine the relationship between the electoral security of congressmen, measured as vote margins in the previous election, and the support Members of Congress offer to their party. I develop a theory that predicts safe members will be more willing to support than vulnerable members and leaders demand more loyalty from safe members than vulnerable. This arrangement is rational and beneficial for leaders and both types of members. Using an OLS regression, I find basic support for my theory.

This study examines the effect of motivation on political selective exposure and selective perception using an online experiment. Studies have found that though people have a preference for like-minded political information over counter-attitudinal information, they do not avoid counter-attitudinal political information altogether (Garrett, 2009; Garrett, Carnahan, & Lynch, 2011; Stroud, 2008). This study examines under what conditions people are likely to expose themselves to more like-minded information than counter-attitudinal information and under what conditions people are likely to seek out more counter-attitudinal information than like-minded information. Based on the theory of motivated reasoning and Hart et al. (2009)'s model, I proposed a model that explained selective exposure and selective perception based on motivation. Defense motivation, the motivation to hold attitude-consistent cognitions with one's original attitudes, beliefs, or behaviors, was predicted to increase selective exposure and selective perception. Accuracy motivation, the motivation to arrive at the correct conclusion, was predicted to reduce selective exposure and selective perception. Finally, information utility motivation, the motivation to choose information that has the highest utility, was predicted to reduce selective exposure when counter-attitudinal information was equally useful as attitude-consistent information, but increase selective exposure when attitude-consistent information was more useful than counter-attitudinal information. In both cases, it was predicted that the selective perception pattern would not be changed. The study also tested the additive effect of the three motivations and examined which motivation can override other motivations in determining selective exposure and selective perception. Results showed that accuracy motivation was effective in reducing selective exposure for both strong partisans and those who were not strong partisans. Accuracy motivation can override defense motivation in affecting selective exposure. Information utility alone, defense motivation alone, and the combination of the three motivations produced mixed results. Accuracy motivation was effective in reducing selective perception for those who were not strong partisans. The link between selective exposure and selective perception was not found.

Konstanz, Univ., Diplomarb., 2006.

A presente pesquisa busca analisar a atuação do poder judiciário, precisamente do Supremo Tribunal Federal e do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral em assuntos de cunho politico. Pode-se considerar que esta participação ativa dos tribunais na esfera politica esta associada ao fenômeno da judicialização da política. Trata-se do estudo especifico do caso da fidelidade partidária, o qual foi regulamentado pelo TSE e ratificado pelo STF através da Res. n. 22.610. Por isso, busca-se trazer as condicionantes da decisão que trouxe outros atributos ao judiciário, assim como regulamentou a relação entre os partidos políticos e seus parlamentares, impondo um clausula de barreira para o troca-troca de partidos. O lapso temporal refere-se aos anos de 1988 (promulgação da Constituição Federal) a 2008 (ano do julgamento do ADI 3999/08, sobre fidelidade partidária pelo STF). A metodologia utilizada no estudo tratam-se de fontes documentais, assim como sites dos Tribunais Regionais Eleitorais e do Supremo Tribunal Federal, referencial bibliográfico sobre o assunto, analise de legislação, consultas, jurisprudências, acordaos. Atraves destas fontes analisa-se o discurso de cada ministro em sua decisão sobre a fidelidade partidária, seus pros e contras. Após a ratificação e entrada em vigor da legislação politicoeleitoral que contempla aspectos sobrea perda do mandato eletivo em favor do partido político, é possível verificar o posicionamento pro-partido, assim com o consenso de fortalecimento das instituições. Por outro lado, tal veio a ferir alguns princípios constitucionais como a liberdade de expressão, assim como a tripartição de poderes, amplamente discutida pela doutrina. Alem disso, na busca de fornecer uma visão aprimorada sobre o assunto e os reflexos da resolução na legislação eleitotal, foram pesquisados cinco estados brasileiros mais populosos dentres cinco regiões do país, através das acoes sobre fidelidade partidária submetidas aos seus respectivos Tribunais Regionais Eleitorais. Assim, a discussão entre os ministros acerca do assunto tem gerado inúmeras polemicas ate hoje, diante da criação de legislação pelo judiciário, vindo com isso a atuar de forma atípica. / This research seeks to analyze the role of the judiciary, precisely the Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral Court in matters of political nature. One may consider that this active participation of courts in political sphere is associated with the phenomenon of judicialization of politics. It is the specific case study of party loyalty, which was regulated by the TSE and ratified by the Supreme Court through Res. N. 22.610. Therefore, we seek to bring the constraints of other attributes decision brought to justice, and regulated the relationship between political parties and their parliamentary, clause by imposing a barrier to bartering parties. The time period refers to the years 1988 (enactment of the Federal Constitution) to 2008 (year of the trial of ADI 3999/08 on party loyalty by the Supreme Court). The methodology used in the study treat yourself to documentary sources as well as the websites of the Regional Electoral Courts and the Supreme Court, bibliographic references on the subject, analyze legislation, consultations, case laws, judgments. Through these sources we analyze the discourse of each Minister in his decision on party loyalty, their pros and cons. After the ratification and entry into force of political and electoral legislation contemplates sobrea aspects loss of elective office on behalf of a political party, you can check the pro-party positioning, so the consensus of strengthening institutions. On the other hand, just came to hurt some constitutional principles such as freedom of expression, as well as the tripartite division of powers, widely discussed by the doctrine. Moreover, in seeking to provide an enhanced on the subject and the reflections in the resolution eleitotal legislation vision five most populous Brazilian state dentres five regions of the country, through the actions of party loyalty submitted to their respective Regional Electoral Courts were surveyed. Thus, the discussion among ministers about the issue has generated numerous controversies till today, before the creation of legislation by the judiciary, coming with it to act atypically.

Cette thèse de doctorat étudie les évolutions électorales et partisanes qui se sont produites en France depuis les années 1980, en avançant l'hypothèse d'une rupture lors des élections de 2007. L'analyse du changement électoral s'opère à travers le prisme de la théorie des réalignements et de la théorie de clivages. Ces théories permettent d'articuler les changements de moyen terme, qui relèvent d'une redéfinition du contenu de l'affrontement politique et les changements de long terme, qui renvoient aux mutations de la société et aux grandes lignes de fracture qui la traversent. Pour comprendre le sens d'une élection, il est nécessaire de la replacer dans son enchaînement historique, afin de prendre en compte le chemin de dépendance dans lequel elle s'inscrit ou avec lequel elle rompt. A ce titre, cette thèse souligne l'importance de la périodisation pour rendre plus intelligible la complexité de la vie politique et différencier le changement « spectaculaire » du changement « fondamental ».A partir de la mise en évidence d'un ordre électoral qui s'est cristallisé en 1984, ce travail de thèse analyse les éléments de remise en cause de cet ordre en 2007, en étudiant les résultats électoraux et des données d'enquêtes. La rupture de 2007 ne découle pas d'un choc extérieur au système politique, mais de la stratégie de droitisation de Nicolas Sarkozy, qui débouche sur un rapprochement des électorats de l'UMP et du FN. Depuis 2007, l'ordre électoral ne s'est pas rétabli malgré le redressement du FN. La « révolution Sarkozy » de 2007 n'a pas été effacée, en raison de la poursuite de la radicalisation de l'UMP, tandis que le centre demeure isolé et que la gauche se retrouve dans une impasse, après être revenue au pouvoir. Le désordre observé depuis 2007, avec une forte volatilité électorale et le développement de nouveaux enjeux, correspond à une nouvelle phase de réalignement à l'issue encore incertaine. / This doctoral thesis studies partisan and electoral evolutions in France since the 1980s. The main hypothesis is that the 2007 elections represent a moment of rupture. Analysis of electoral change relies on realignment theory and cleavage theory. These theories help to articulate medium-term changes, which result from a reshaping of the political competition and long term changes, which stem from evolutions of society and of its main lines of division. An election, in order to be understood, needs to be replaced in a historical perspective, taking into account the path dependence in which it stands or from which it departs. This PhD thesis stresses the importance of periodization for making sense of the complexity of political phenomena, while distinguishing ‘spectacular' change from ‘fundamental' change.Using electoral results and survey data, we first analyze the electoral order instituted in 1984, and second, we explore the features which mark its collapse in 2007. We show that the rupture of 2007 does not result from an external shock, but rather from Nicolas Sarkozy's ‘race to the right' political strategy which put the FN and UMP electorates closer together. Since 2007, the old electoral order has not been reestablished, despite the recovery of the FN. The ‘Sarkozy revolution' of 2007 has not been erased because of the continuing radicalization of the UMP, while the centre is isolated and the left is in disarray following its comeback to power. The disorder observed since 2007, characterized by a high electoral volatility and the rise of new issues, represents a new realignment era with an uncertain future.

A presente pesquisa busca analisar a atuação do poder judiciário, precisamente do Supremo Tribunal Federal e do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral em assuntos de cunho politico. Pode-se considerar que esta participação ativa dos tribunais na esfera politica esta associada ao fenômeno da judicialização da política. Trata-se do estudo especifico do caso da fidelidade partidária, o qual foi regulamentado pelo TSE e ratificado pelo STF através da Res. n. 22.610. Por isso, busca-se trazer as condicionantes da decisão que trouxe outros atributos ao judiciário, assim como regulamentou a relação entre os partidos políticos e seus parlamentares, impondo um clausula de barreira para o troca-troca de partidos. O lapso temporal refere-se aos anos de 1988 (promulgação da Constituição Federal) a 2008 (ano do julgamento do ADI 3999/08, sobre fidelidade partidária pelo STF). A metodologia utilizada no estudo tratam-se de fontes documentais, assim como sites dos Tribunais Regionais Eleitorais e do Supremo Tribunal Federal, referencial bibliográfico sobre o assunto, analise de legislação, consultas, jurisprudências, acordaos. Atraves destas fontes analisa-se o discurso de cada ministro em sua decisão sobre a fidelidade partidária, seus pros e contras. Após a ratificação e entrada em vigor da legislação politicoeleitoral que contempla aspectos sobrea perda do mandato eletivo em favor do partido político, é possível verificar o posicionamento pro-partido, assim com o consenso de fortalecimento das instituições. Por outro lado, tal veio a ferir alguns princípios constitucionais como a liberdade de expressão, assim como a tripartição de poderes, amplamente discutida pela doutrina. Alem disso, na busca de fornecer uma visão aprimorada sobre o assunto e os reflexos da resolução na legislação eleitotal, foram pesquisados cinco estados brasileiros mais populosos dentres cinco regiões do país, através das acoes sobre fidelidade partidária submetidas aos seus respectivos Tribunais Regionais Eleitorais. Assim, a discussão entre os ministros acerca do assunto tem gerado inúmeras polemicas ate hoje, diante da criação de legislação pelo judiciário, vindo com isso a atuar de forma atípica. / This research seeks to analyze the role of the judiciary, precisely the Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral Court in matters of political nature. One may consider that this active participation of courts in political sphere is associated with the phenomenon of judicialization of politics. It is the specific case study of party loyalty, which was regulated by the TSE and ratified by the Supreme Court through Res. N. 22.610. Therefore, we seek to bring the constraints of other attributes decision brought to justice, and regulated the relationship between political parties and their parliamentary, clause by imposing a barrier to bartering parties. The time period refers to the years 1988 (enactment of the Federal Constitution) to 2008 (year of the trial of ADI 3999/08 on party loyalty by the Supreme Court). The methodology used in the study treat yourself to documentary sources as well as the websites of the Regional Electoral Courts and the Supreme Court, bibliographic references on the subject, analyze legislation, consultations, case laws, judgments. Through these sources we analyze the discourse of each Minister in his decision on party loyalty, their pros and cons. After the ratification and entry into force of political and electoral legislation contemplates sobrea aspects loss of elective office on behalf of a political party, you can check the pro-party positioning, so the consensus of strengthening institutions. On the other hand, just came to hurt some constitutional principles such as freedom of expression, as well as the tripartite division of powers, widely discussed by the doctrine. Moreover, in seeking to provide an enhanced on the subject and the reflections in the resolution eleitotal legislation vision five most populous Brazilian state dentres five regions of the country, through the actions of party loyalty submitted to their respective Regional Electoral Courts were surveyed. Thus, the discussion among ministers about the issue has generated numerous controversies till today, before the creation of legislation by the judiciary, coming with it to act atypically.

A presente pesquisa busca analisar a atuação do poder judiciário, precisamente do Supremo Tribunal Federal e do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral em assuntos de cunho politico. Pode-se considerar que esta participação ativa dos tribunais na esfera politica esta associada ao fenômeno da judicialização da política. Trata-se do estudo especifico do caso da fidelidade partidária, o qual foi regulamentado pelo TSE e ratificado pelo STF através da Res. n. 22.610. Por isso, busca-se trazer as condicionantes da decisão que trouxe outros atributos ao judiciário, assim como regulamentou a relação entre os partidos políticos e seus parlamentares, impondo um clausula de barreira para o troca-troca de partidos. O lapso temporal refere-se aos anos de 1988 (promulgação da Constituição Federal) a 2008 (ano do julgamento do ADI 3999/08, sobre fidelidade partidária pelo STF). A metodologia utilizada no estudo tratam-se de fontes documentais, assim como sites dos Tribunais Regionais Eleitorais e do Supremo Tribunal Federal, referencial bibliográfico sobre o assunto, analise de legislação, consultas, jurisprudências, acordaos. Atraves destas fontes analisa-se o discurso de cada ministro em sua decisão sobre a fidelidade partidária, seus pros e contras. Após a ratificação e entrada em vigor da legislação politicoeleitoral que contempla aspectos sobrea perda do mandato eletivo em favor do partido político, é possível verificar o posicionamento pro-partido, assim com o consenso de fortalecimento das instituições. Por outro lado, tal veio a ferir alguns princípios constitucionais como a liberdade de expressão, assim como a tripartição de poderes, amplamente discutida pela doutrina. Alem disso, na busca de fornecer uma visão aprimorada sobre o assunto e os reflexos da resolução na legislação eleitotal, foram pesquisados cinco estados brasileiros mais populosos dentres cinco regiões do país, através das acoes sobre fidelidade partidária submetidas aos seus respectivos Tribunais Regionais Eleitorais. Assim, a discussão entre os ministros acerca do assunto tem gerado inúmeras polemicas ate hoje, diante da criação de legislação pelo judiciário, vindo com isso a atuar de forma atípica. / This research seeks to analyze the role of the judiciary, precisely the Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral Court in matters of political nature. One may consider that this active participation of courts in political sphere is associated with the phenomenon of judicialization of politics. It is the specific case study of party loyalty, which was regulated by the TSE and ratified by the Supreme Court through Res. N. 22.610. Therefore, we seek to bring the constraints of other attributes decision brought to justice, and regulated the relationship between political parties and their parliamentary, clause by imposing a barrier to bartering parties. The time period refers to the years 1988 (enactment of the Federal Constitution) to 2008 (year of the trial of ADI 3999/08 on party loyalty by the Supreme Court). The methodology used in the study treat yourself to documentary sources as well as the websites of the Regional Electoral Courts and the Supreme Court, bibliographic references on the subject, analyze legislation, consultations, case laws, judgments. Through these sources we analyze the discourse of each Minister in his decision on party loyalty, their pros and cons. After the ratification and entry into force of political and electoral legislation contemplates sobrea aspects loss of elective office on behalf of a political party, you can check the pro-party positioning, so the consensus of strengthening institutions. On the other hand, just came to hurt some constitutional principles such as freedom of expression, as well as the tripartite division of powers, widely discussed by the doctrine. Moreover, in seeking to provide an enhanced on the subject and the reflections in the resolution eleitotal legislation vision five most populous Brazilian state dentres five regions of the country, through the actions of party loyalty submitted to their respective Regional Electoral Courts were surveyed. Thus, the discussion among ministers about the issue has generated numerous controversies till today, before the creation of legislation by the judiciary, coming with it to act atypically.

Nesta dissertação, investigarei a configuração do quadro partidário brasileiro pós-revolução de 30 e busco levantar explicações sobre o porquê deste rearranjo partidário. Estas explicações foram levantadas com base em dois elementos explicativos encontrados na literatura, que corresponde: a explicação institucionalista e a contingencial e em cima destas será elaborada a resposta sobre o problema em tela. Este trabalho ao dar atenção a este tema traz luz a um problema ainda não investigado pela ciência política brasileira e abre um leque para a emergência de uma nova agenda de pesquisa na Ciência Política brasileira. / In this dissertation I will investigate the Brazilian party framework configuration in the period after the revolution of 1930 and I aim to seek for explanations about this party rearrangement. These explanations were raised in connection with two explanatory elements found in the literature: the institutionalism and contingency explanations, over these two theories the answer to the research problem will be given. This work pretends to give attention to a very important problem that wasnt investigated by Brazilian political science and consequently this will open a new research agenda inside Brazilian political science.