One often wishes to understand the probability distribution of stochastic data from experiment or computer simulations. However, where no model is given, practitioners must resort to parametric or non-parametric methods in order to gain information about the underlying distribution. Others have used initially a nonparametric estimator in order to understand the underlying shape of a set of data, and then later returned with a parametric method to locate the peaks. However they are interested in estimating spectra, which may have multiple peaks, where in this work we are interested in approximating the peak position of a single-peak probability distribution. One method of analyzing a distribution of data is by fitting a curve to, or smoothing them. Polynomial regression and least-squares fit are examples of smoothing methods. Initial understanding of the underlying distribution can be obscured depending on the degree of smoothing. Problems such as under and oversmoothing must be addressed in order to determine the shape of the underlying distribution. Furthermore, smoothing of skewed data can give a biased estimation of the peak position. We propose two new approaches for statistical mode estimation based on the assumption that the underlying distribution has only one peak. The first method imposes the global constraint of unimodality locally, by requiring negative curvature over some domain. The second method performs a search that assumes a position of the distribution's peak and requires positive slope to the left, and negative slope to the right. Each approach entails a constrained least-squares fit to the raw cumulative probability distribution. We compare the relative efficiencies [12] of finding the peak location of these two estimators for artificially generated data from known families of distributions Weibull, beta, and gamma. Within each family a parameter controls the skewness or kurtosis, quantifying the shapes of the distributions for comparison. We also compare our methods with other estimators such as the kernel-density estimator, adaptive histogram, and polynomial regression. By comparing the effectiveness of the estimators, we can determine which estimator best locates the peak position. We find that our estimators do not perform better than other known estimators. We also find that our estimators are biased. Overall, an adaptation of kernel estimation proved to be the most efficient. The results for the work done in this thesis will be submitted, in a different form, for publication by D.A. Rabson and J.K. Looper.

Evidence suggests that the Promoting the Emergence of Advanced Knowledge Relational Training System (PEAK) is an effective method of providing verbal behavior training to individuals with developmental disabilities, and previous research indicates that BST can be used to train staff in its implementation. Video modeling is a modification to BST that can decrease the amount of resources necessary to provide instruction without limiting the effectiveness of the training. This study evaluated the effectiveness of using video modeling for teaching direct care staff how to implement the Promoting the Emergence of Advanced Knowledge Relational Training System (PEAK) using a multiple baseline across participants design. All participants showed improvement in PEAK implementation with video modeling treatment; one required the addition of a checklist to achieve mastery. Implications for further research are discussed.

The thesis examines the role of regional labour councils in local employment generation. It specifically analyses the case of an Australian regional labour council, the South Coast Labour Council (SCLC), between 1981 and 1996. The Illawarra region was the centre of SCLC activity. It was an industrialised region that experienced high levels of unemployment in the period. These were greater than the State and national averages, which reflected a geographical concentration of unemployment in certain regions in Australia. The SCLC attempted to address this issue, as it was part of the union structure that was specifically focused on the regional level and on regional concerns. The study argues that the SCLC developed a local employment generation strategy and it examines how and why this was adopted and pursued. It finds that the SCLC was well placed at the regional level and was well resourced with a capacity to influence the external environment through its utilisation of both political and industrial methods in a period of agreeable internal relations. The research identifies the development of its local employment generation strategy. Sometimes the SCLC pursued its strategy in a manner of ad hoc decision-making and muddling through, while at other times it involved characteristic and distinctive regular patterns. The thesis concludes by evaluating the SCLC�s strategy of local employment generation and by exploring the applicability of the general trade union literature on methods and strategy to regional labour councils.

<p>This thesis describes the use of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrometry as an analytical tool. The theory of NMR spectroscopy in general and quantitative NMR spectrometry (qNMR) in particular is described and the instrumental properties and parameter setups for qNMR measurements are discussed. Examples of qNMR are presented by impurity determination of pharmaceutical compounds and analysis of urine samples from rats fed with either water or a drug (metabolic profiling). The instrumental parameter setup of qNMR and traditional data pre-treatments are examined. Spectral smoothing by convolution with a triangular function, which is an unusual application in this context, was shown to be successful regarding the sensitivity and robustness of the method in paper II. In addition, papers III and IV comprise the field of peak alignment, especially designed for ¹H-NMR spectra of urine samples. This is an important preprocessing tool when multivariate analysis is to be applied. A novel peak alignment method was developed and compared to the traditional bucketing approach and a conceptually different alignment method.</p><p>Univariate, multivariate, linear and nonlinear data analyses were applied to qNMR data. In papers I–II, calibration models were created to examine the potential of qNMR for these applications. The data analysis in papers III–VI was mainly explorative. The potential of data fusion and data correlation was examined in order to increase the possibilities of analysing the highly complex samples from metabolic profiling (papers V–VI). Data from LC/MS analysis of the same samples were used with the ¹H-NMR data in different ways. Correlation analyses between the¹H-NMR data and the drug metabolites identified from the LC/MS data were also performed. In this process, data fusion proved to be a valuable tool.</p>

<p>Several scenarios point toward a future where we are far more people on Earth than today, where most of those people will live in cities and where oil no longer dominates in the transport systems and in agriculture as an energy source and where less energy will be available to us. The report investigates what areas in traditional ecological knowledge that can contribute to the transition that follows a future with less energy and establishes three areas with the potential of becoming important:</p><p> </p><ol><li>areaspecific biological knowledge in societies that are more dependent upon its surrounding environment and its natural prerequisites</li><li>the local management of these biological resources, which often means a fair sharing and sustainable handling of the resources and which has been observed in Nobel price awarded Elinor Ostrom’s research</li><li>the world views that lie behind how the environment is considered and managed, world views that can inspire and point toward how we in the future should formulate world views that do not give the destructive modern management of the environment</li></ol><p> </p><p>It is also noted that the magnitude of the city living in the future is a historical news and that very little research has been done in how traditional knowledge can be transferred into this kind of living.</p>

Une des questions les plus ambitieuses dans la Physique de la Matière Condensée concerne la compréhension des propriétés vibrationnelles des verres. En particulier, une anomalie présente dans la densité d'états vibrationnels (VDOS) à des énergies de quelques meV a suscite beaucoup d'intérêt en raison de sa présence universelle dans les verres. Cette anomalie, appelée “boson peak” (BP), apparaît comme un pic dans la VDOS réduite par rapport à la prévision du continuum élastique de Debye, dans une région d'énergies où le modèle de Debye fonctionne encore assez bien pour les correspondants cristaux. Dans ce travail de Thèse on présente les résultats d'une étude expérimentale de la dynamique vibrationnelle dans des verres du sorbitol at du soufre, par diffusion inélastique de la lumière, des rayons x et des neutrons. Dans le cas du sorbitol, ces résultats montrent clairement que le BP est lie à des anomalies observées dans la courbe de dispersion acoustique dans la région mésoscopique des vecteurs d'onde de quelques nm−1. En outre, l'étude de la dépendance en température de ces propriétés montre que cette connexion est maintenue même avec les changements de température. Enfin, le comportement des modes à haute fréquence peut être utilise pour reproduire quantitativement la forme du BP, ce qui suggère une forte relation entre les propriétés acoustiques dans la région mésoscopique et le BP. Ce comportement semble être universel dans les verres. Dans le cas du soufre vitreux le BP est situe à l'extérieur de la fenêtre d'énergies qui peut être sondée par IXS et donc il n'est pas possible expérimentalement d'étudier le caractère des excitations collectives correspondantes.

<p>Ion current sensing, where information about the combustion process in an SI-engine is gained by applying a voltage over the spark gap, is currently used to detect and avoid knock and misfire. Several researchers have pointed out that information on peak pressure location and air/fuel ratio can be gained from the ion current and have suggested several ways to estimate these parameters.</p><p>Here a simplified Bayesian approach was taken to construct a lowpass-like filter or estimator that makes use of prior information to improve estimates in crucial areas. The algorithm is computationally light and could, if successful, improve estimates enough for production use.</p><p>The filter was implemented in several variants and evaluated in a number of simulated cases. It was found that the proposed filter requires a number of trade-offs between variance, bias, tracking speed and accuracy that are difficult to balance. For satisfactory estimates and trade-off balance the prior information must be more accurate than was available.</p><p>It was also found that similar a task, constructing a general Bayesian estimator, has already been tackled in the area of particle filtering and that there are promising and unexplored possibilities there. However, particle filters require computational power that will not be available to production engines for some years. </p> / <p>Vid jonströmsmätning utvinns information om förbränningsprocessen i en bensinmotor genom att en spänning läggs över gnistgapet och den resulterande strömmen mäts. Jonströmsmätning används idag för knack- och feltändningsdetektion. Flera forskare har påpekat att det finns än mer information i jonströmmen, bl.a. om bränsleblandningen och cylindertrycket och har även föreslagit metoder för att utvinna och använda den informationen för skattning av dessa parametrar.</p><p>Här presenteras en förenklad Bayesisk metod i form av en lågpassfilter-liknande skattare som använder förkunskap till att förbättra estimat på relevanta områden. Algoritmen är beräkningsmässigt lätt och kan, om den är framgångsrik, leverera skattningar av förbränningsparametrar som är tillräckligt bra för att användas för sluten styrning av en bensinmotor.</p><p>Skattaren, eller filtret, implementerades i flera varianter och utvärderades i ett antal simulerade fall. Resultaten visade på att flera svåra avvägningar måste göras mellan förbättring i varians, avvikelse och följning eftersom förbättring i den ena ledde till försämring i de andra. För att göra dessa avvägningar och få goda skattningar krävs bättre förhandskunskap och mätdata än vad som var tillgängligt.</p><p>Bayesisk skattning är ett stort befintligt område inom statistik och signalbehandling och den mest generella skattaren är partikelfiltret som har många intressanta tillämpningar och möjligheter. De har hittills inte använts inom skattning av förbränningsparametrar och har således go potential för framtida utveckling. De är dock beräkningsmässigt tunga och kräver beräkningsresurser utöver vad som är tillgängliga i ett motorstyrsystem idag.</p>

<p>Av två anledningar anses det som mycket viktigt att bryta beroendet av olja, naturgas och kol. Den första anledningen är de uppmärksammade klimatförändringarna. Förbränning av fossila bränslen anges idag som huvudorsak till växthuseffekten. Den andra mindre uppmärksammade orsaken är att oljan och naturgasen snart inte räcker till för att föda en allt energihungrigare värld. Utvinningen ser dessutom ut att ha nåt sin kulmen. Efter denna kommer en oundviklig produktionsnedgång. Med det stora beroendet som finns av oljan inom i stort sett alla sektorer är det ytterst viktigt att hitta andra alternativ. Speciellt gäller detta inom transportområdet. Förhoppningen står idag till ”gröna” drivmedel som etanol och biodiesel. IEA (International Energy Agency) har uppmanat de västerländska nationerna att satsa stort på biobränslen. I denna studie görs en analys av de förutsättningar som finns att bygga ut produktionen av denna i USA, Brasilien och Malaysia/Indonesien. Syftet har varit att ta reda på om det är möjligt att göra detta utan att inkräkta på andra näringar, inte skada miljön samt vara oberoende av fossil energi? Den bakomliggande teorin är att detta inte låter sig göras i den omfattning som krävs för att bibehålla de nuvarande samhällsstrukturerna. Detta visar sig också stämma med de uppgifter som står till buds. Endast en fraktion av det nuvarande drivmedelsbehovet går att försörja med biodrivmedel om det inte ska uppstå en allvarlig konkurrens om odlingsmarken eller orsaka stora ekologiska skador.</p>

<p>This is a tale about energy and power. It describes the geographer Halford Mackinder’s geopolitical theories and compares them with current views outlined by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Michael T Klare, among others. With a critical approach it also provides a historical account of a Europe that stands in front of an energy struggle so severe that the current world order seems destined to fall. Oil and natural gas, has since the beginning of the 20th century, been used as a geopolitical tool in order to create dependence, control and even sometimes overthrow empires. USA has for example dominated the “protectorates” Europe and Japan by controlling the flow of oil in the Middle East. But this seems to change. It can’t be ruled out that the cities of Europe in the long run will be shrouded in darkness. The background is that Europe’s own deposits of fossil energy are decreasing at such vast speed that almost the entire demand will have to be imported by the year 2020. Awareness of this forecast, and the undertaking to reduce the carbon emissions in accordance with the Kyoto treaty, led to a grand proclamation in March 2007 to reduce the need for fossil fuels. This commitment seems however to be insufficient if independence towards other regions shall be maintained. Only a small part of the demand can be met by domestically produced fuels. Neither will the proposed energy reducing measures increase the energy security. The conclusion is that there is no time to develop new technology in order to save Europe from its difficult situation.</p><p>The dependence on Russia will instead grow stronger. The current geopolitical order, where the United States has acted as a military protector and guarantor of the energy security, looks like it is going to fall. The US is bogged down in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars at the same time as Europe’s dependence on energy from the East grows. The US also has economic troubles and their own energy security dilemma. Russia has on the other hand acted with greater self confidence and purposefully built alliances with China, the Middle East and its former republics in Central Asia. Russia may soon dictate the future of Europe with its energy trump card. If Europe keeps its alliance with US and tries to challenge or subjugate Russia into its “unipolar” order it will deepen the risk for conflict. In such a conflict, Moscow has the power to darken and cool down the European room. Since every country is dependent on the dwindling energy resources for their survival, it may escalate into a full blown war. But the new order may be short. Within two decades there will probably be no surplus of energy to export for Russia, or any other nation for that matter. Europe will by then be without it’s own energy resources and simultaneously lose the option to import.</p> / <p>Det här är en berättelse om energi och makt. Den beskriver geografen Halford Mackinders geopolitiska teorier från början av 1900-talet och jämför dem med moderna uppfattningar från bland annat Zbigniew Brzezinski och Michael T Klare. Med en kritisk utgångspunkt ges även en historia om ett Europa som står inför en så svår energiutmaning att den nuvarande ordningen ser ut att falla. Sedan oljan och senare naturgasen började nyttjas har energin använts som ett geopolitiskt verktyg för att skapa beroenden, kontroll och även för att störta imperier i sank. USA har exempelvis dominerat sina ”protektorat” Europa och Japan genom att kontrollera oljeflödet från Mellanöstern. Men detta ser ut att förändras. I förlängningen går det inte utesluta att mörkret permanent lägger sig över Europas städer. Bakgrunden är att de egna lagren av fossil energi minskar i en sådan takt att i stort sett hela behovet måste importeras inom 20 år. Medvetenheten om detta, samt åtagandet att minska koldioxidutsläppen i enlighet med Kyotoavtalet, gjorde att EU i mars 2007 proklamerade att en stor satsning skulle vidtas för att reducera behovet av fossila bränslen. Denna satsning visar sig dock vara otillräcklig för att upprätthålla ett oberoende från andra regioner. Endast en mindre del av behovet kan tillgodoses med inhemskt producerade bränslen. Inte heller de energisparande åtgärderna kan dramatiskt höja energisäkerheten. Tiden är alltför knapp för att ny fantastisk teknik ska kunna rädda Europa ur sin besvärliga situation.</p><p>Istället blir beroendet av Ryssland allt större. Detta leder till att den rådande geopolitiska ordningen, där USA både har agerat som Europas militära beskyddare och garant av energisäkerheten, riskerar att falla ihop. Samtidigt som Europa blir mer beroende av energin från öst går USA:s krig i Irak och Afghanistan allt sämre. USA har även ekonomiska bekymmer och ett eget energisäkerhetsproblem. Ryssland har i sin tur agerat med allt större självaktning och målmedvetet byggt allianser med Kina, Mellanöstern och sina forna delrepubliker i Centralasien. Med energin som trumfkort kan Ryssland komma att diktera EU:s framtid. Om EU bibehåller sin allians med USA och försöker utmana eller inlemma Ryssland i sin ”unipolära” ordning ökar risken för en allvarlig konflikt. Moskva har i ett sådant läge makt att både mörklägga och kyla ner det europeiska rummet. Eftersom alla behöver energin för sin överlevnad finns en risk att en marsch inleds mot ett fullskaligt krig. Den nya ordningen kan dock bli kort. Inom två decennier kan troligtvis inte längre Ryssland – eller någon annan region – exportera ett överskott. Europa kommer då att sakna både egna energiresurser samt importmöjligheter för att driva sina energisystem. Vad som då händer med det gamla Europa återstår att se.</p>

<p>Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important. </p><p>The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter.</p><p>A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR). </p><p>However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf. </p><p>The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production.</p><p>In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.</p>