Political campaigning has become a multi-million dollar business. A substantial proportion of a campaign's budget is spent on voter mobilization, i.e., on identifying and influencing as many people as possible to vote. Based on data, campaigns use statistical tools to provide a basis for deciding who to target. While the data available is usually rich, campaigns have traditionally relied on a rather limited selection of information, often including only previous voting behavior and one or two demographical variables. Statistical procedures that are currently in use include logistic regression or standard classification tree methods like CHAID, but there is a growing interest in employing modern data mining approaches. Along the lines of this development, we propose a modern framework for voter targeting called LORET (for logistic regression trees) that employs trees (with possibly just a single root node) containing logistic regressions (with possibly just an intercept) in every leaf. Thus, they contain logistic regression and classification trees as special cases and allow for a synthesis of both techniques under one umbrella. We explore various flavors of LORET models that (a) compare the effect of using the full set of available variables against using only limited information and (b) investigate their varying effects either as regressors in the logistic model components or as partitioning variables in the tree components. To assess model performance and illustrate targeting, we apply LORET to a data set of 19,634 eligible voters from the 2004 US presidential election. We find that augmenting the standard set of variables (such as age and voting history) together with additional predictor variables (such as the household composition in terms of party affiliation and each individual's rank in the household) clearly improves predictive accuracy. We also find that LORET models based on tree induction outbeat the unpartitioned competitors. Additionally, LORET models using both partitioning variables and regressors in the resulting nodes can improve the efficiency of allocating campaign resources while still providing intelligible models. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Diploma thesis Transformation of Visual Image of American Presidential Election in Magazines Time and Newsweek concentrates on visual depiction of topics related to the American presidential campaigns in newsweeklies between the years of 1992 and 2012. The first part of the thesis describes the development of modern political communication, political marketing and political campaigns. The following chapter is devoted to characterization of analyzed periodicals and to the current status of newsweeklies on the media market. The state of newsweeklies in the digital era is described by an example of the Newsweek magazine's current history and present. The American election system is briefly described in the end of the theroretical part of the thesis. A detailed research of visual materials dedicated to the American presidential campaigns in the Time and Newsweek magazines is carried out by the means of qualitative alalysis in the practical part of the thesis. The conclusion of the thesis evaluates the evolution of these materials between the years of 1992 and 2012 in the context of the development of the political communication and the current state of the media landscape.

The subject of this thesis is the media, its history and function, and some other specific associated terms (in particular, the concept of objectivity and the theory of agenda- setting). In my thesis, I will also address the relationship between the media and politics. The aim of the practical part of the thesis is to analyze the work of three Czech journals (Hospodářské noviny, Mladá fronta DNES, Právo), and two television newscasts (Televizní noviny on TV Nova and Události České televize), in each case focusing on the theme of the American presidential election within a defined period of time (7. 11. 2016 - 13. 11. 2016). The core of the analysis consists of observing the proportion of total space and time that was dedicated to the topic, and in this analysis, I will focus on objectivity, or on the occurrence of the tabloid features. Key words media, mass communication, news, agenda-setting, objectivity, tabloid press, political marketing, election, president

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-29T13:32:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gil Goncalves Junior.pdf: 1026417 bytes, checksum: 707dcca1057fd05d7f1758510721fee3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-11-07 / The subject in study in this research is political marketing, especially when it happens through election campaigns. Considering that the marketing intuit, when we talk about politics, or about economic relations, is to mobilize psychic matters presents in the wishes of their addressee, taking them into decisions which are not necessarily rational, having a psycho technical function, the possible success in the political marketing denies the identity implied in the mechanism of power delegations through the straight and free vote of the citizens. This way, the political marketing is a matter of interest of the social psychology, area in which this work is inserted and, the way it may affect an important basis of democracy: power delegation through straight and free vote of the citizens, also consists in a theme with scientific and social interest, what justifies its study. This study starts analyzing the way political marketing is introduced into written material by professionals of the area and studiouses of the theme, through it was possible to observe the presence of rational technology into and in consequence of the political marketing. After that, recurring to sayings of critical theorists of the society, this connection between political marketing and technological rationality is analyzed in details, in a way to explicit the historical and economical determinations of such connection, as well as delimitate more precisely its psychosocial dimension. Finally, with basis into the previous reflections and conclusions, it was analyzed a publicity election key diffused by the television. As a result of this set of procedures, it was verified that political marketing, as well as its simile applied to economical relations, is constituted into the factor of technological rationality and, this way, is configured as a suitable practice with the reduction of democracy to its mechanisms, determined by this same rationality, once your action presupposes and reaffirms two aspects of this reduction: the shutting of the political universe and the obstruction of the constitution of the implied individuality to the mechanism of delegation through the power of the vote / O objeto de estudo desta pesquisa é o marketing político, especialmente quando acionado pelas campanhas eleitorais. Considerando que o intento do marketing, tanto na esfera política, quanto na esfera das relações econômicas, é mobilizar conteúdos psíquicos subjacentes aos desejos dos seus destinatários, de modo a induzi-los a decisões não necessariamente racionais, exercendo assim uma função psicotécnica, o eventual sucesso do marketing político nega a individualidade implícita no mecanismo da delegação do poder pelo voto direto e livre dos cidadãos. Desse modo, o marketing político constitui-se em tema de interesse da psicologia social, área do saber na qual este estudo se insere e, na medida em que o seu acionamento pode afetar o fundamento básico do regime democrático: a delegação do poder pelo voto direto e livre dos cidadãos, também consiste em tema de interesse científico e social, o que justifica o seu estudo. Este estudo tem início com a análise do modo como o marketing político é apresentado em obras escritas por profissionais da área e estudiosos do tema, mediante a qual foi possível verificar a presença da racionalidade tecnológica no e em conseqüência do acionamento do marketing político. Em seguida, recorrendo-se a formulações de teóricos críticos da sociedade, esse vínculo do marketing político com a racionalidade tecnológica é analisado mais detalhadamente, de modo a explicitar as determinações históricas e econômicas de tal vínculo, bem como delimitar mais precisamente a sua dimensão psicossocial. Finalmente, com base nas reflexões e conclusões anteriores, analisa-se uma peça publicitária de campanha eleitoral veiculada pela televisão. Como resultado desse conjunto de procedimentos, verificou-se que o marketing político, assim como seu símile aplicado à esfera das relações econômicas, constitui-se em fator da racionalidade tecnológica e, desse modo, configura-se como uma prática condizente com a redução de democracia aos seus mecanismos, determinada por essa mesma racionalidade, uma vez que o seu acionamento pressupõe e reitera dois aspectos dessa redução: o fechamento do universo do político e o impedimento da constituição da individualidade implícita no mecanismo da delegação do poder pelo voto

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T18:10:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Diogenes Jose Pasqualini.pdf: 2280193 bytes, checksum: 304a1d8389dda4bd15f2fd2abe98cf6d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-02 / The current mayor of Sao Paulo, Gilberto Kassab, was elected deputy mayor in José Serra's government in 2004. When Serra left office to become Governor of the State of São Paulo, he assumed command of the administrative municipality. He gained notoriety by presenting a controversial proposal, which became a law in São Paulo, law n. 14.233 of 2006. It became known as "Clean City Law", and determines the use of the urban landscape in the county. Upon gaining a place and providing guidelines for the media, the "Clean City Project," he gained prominence in the media, and political force, and as a politician with a modest political career, (he had been a city councilman and deputy), he went on to be elected mayor of the largest city in Latin America. He won the elections in 2008 by defeating the two candidates who were considered, up until that time, more "experienced" in politics: former Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin and the former mayor of São Paulo, Marta Suplicy. The hypothesis argued here is that this Law gave rise to the political marketing strategy used in the election of Gilberto Kassab for the post of Mayor of Sao Paulo. The proposed "clean the city" of its visible pollution became a powerful metaphor. The cleaning concept embodied the ideal city to live in, free of problems, more humane, safe, an orderly city, free of its ills. To investigate the effect of this Law and its effect on voters the metaphorical theory Corpomídia will be used (Katz & Greiner), which expands the understanding of the relationship between the body, through its mediation and how the massification of a proposal for cleaning captured people around an idea / O atual prefeito de São Paulo, Gilberto Kassab, foi eleito vice-prefeito na chapa de José Serra, em 2004. Quando Serra deixou o cargo, para ser governador do Estado de São Paulo, Kassab assumiu o comando administrativo do município. Ganhou notoriedade ao apresentar uma proposta polêmica, que dispõe sobre os usos da paisagem urbana no município, que foi transformada na Lei n. 14.223 de 2006 e que tornou-se conhecida como Lei Cidade Limpa . Antes de virar Lei, ainda enquanto Projeto Cidade Limpa , conseguiu pautar os meios de comunicação, fazendo com que Gilberto Kassab ganhasse destaque na mídia, força política e, de um político de carreira modesta (tinha sido vereador e deputado), conseguisse ser eleito prefeito da maior cidade da América Latina. Kassab venceu as eleições em 2008 ao derrotar dois candidatos considerados, até então, mais experientes na esfera política: o ex-governador de São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin e a ex-prefeita da capital paulista Marta Suplicy. A hipótese aqui defendida é a de que a estratégia de marketing político responsável por sua eleição foi construída a partir dessa Lei. A proposta de limpar a cidade da sua poluição visual transformou-se em uma metáfora poderosa. O conceito de limpeza corporificou a cidade ideal para se viver, livre de todos os problemas, mais humana, segura, uma cidade em ordem, limpa de seus males. Para investigar a ação dessa Lei e sua ação metafórica sobre os eleitores será empregada a Teoria Corpomídia (Katz & Greiner), que amplia o entendimento da relação entre corpo e a sua mediação com o meio e como a massificação de uma proposta de limpeza capturou as pessoas em torno de uma ideia

Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo identificar, descrever e examinar alguns aspectos da educação política no Brasil, mais especificamente as estratégias de uso de elementos da cultura empregadas pelos consultores de marketing político no seio das campanhas eleitorais. Neste estudo, defendeu-se duas teses: a) o marketing como uma matriz de educação política e b) os consultores como intérpretes da cultura. Observou-se, portanto, que esses agentes da política, da educação e da cultura agem como administradores de uma informação acumulada, por meio de uma ação pedagógica e socializadora difusa da população. Identificou-se os interesses diversificados de agentes na adesão a um espaço social específico, descreveu-se a institucionalização do marketing político no interior do campo científico e interpelou-se a categoria nativa intérpretes na produção de crenças e entendimentos sobre a política. Com o objetivo de aprofundar a compreensão das duas teses, discutiu-se a memória e a fofoca como conteúdos e didáticas das campanhas eleitorais. Para cumprir o empreendimento intelectual proposto, foi realizada uma etnografia multissituada, de caráter exploratório, inovador e inédito na área de educação, analisando um conjunto de dados multilocalizados e oriundos de propagandas eleitorais; de contextos de produção de uma campanha específica, realizada na Amazônia brasileira; de livros produzidos por consultores; de entrevistas realizadas com eles e de outras referências encontradas no trabalho de campo e vividas pelo autor da pesquisa. Com a intenção de que o presente estudo venha contribuir para um entendimento mais amplo e eficiente a respeito da construção social da realidade nos dias atuais, propôs-se investigar as formas de sintetizar a cultura no que se refere à produção de possíveis tentativas de educação dos modos de concepção, classificação, julgamento e imaginação da população no âmbito político. Por fim, buscou-se contribuir para a ampliação do escopo investigativo da sociologia da educação no que tange aos processos educacionais difusos e de massa, e que influem substancialmente no futuro do país, que não estão restritos à escola, mas que podem chegar à ela. / This research aimed at identifying, describing and examining some aspects of political education in Brazil, more precisely the use of cultural elements by political marketing consultants in electoral campaigns. Two theses were defended by this study: a) Marketing as a source for political education and b) consultants as the interpreters of culture. It was observed, therefore, that these agents of politics, education and culture operate as managers of accumulated information, by means of pedagogic action and socializing practices of the population. Diversified interests of these agents were identified in support of a particular social area, the institutionalization of political marketing within the scientific field was also depicted, and the native status of interpreters in the creation of political views and beliefs was questioned. With the objective of deepening the understanding of the two theses, collective memory and rumors were discussed as content of and educational approaches to electoral campaigns. In order to accomplish the proposed intellectual enterprise, a multi-sited ethnographic study that was exploratory and innovative in character and unprecedented in the educational field, was created by analyzing a set of multi-locational data derived from electoral campaigns; in fact as a result of a particular campaign, which took place in the Brazilian Amazon; from books written by those consultants; interviews and other references that were found during fieldwork and experienced by the author of the research. With the purpose to provide a broader and more efficient understanding concerning the construction of our current social reality, the present case study aimed at exploring ways to synthesize culture regarding the production of possible attempts to educate the population in of methods of conception, classification, judgment and imagination in the realm of politics. Lastly, the intention was to widen the investigative scope of sociology of education related to widespread and mass educational procedures, which have a substantial influence on the future of the country, and which arent limited to the school system, but that can reach it.

This diploma thesis focuses on relations between a candidate and a political party and how these relations are influenced by political marketing and media. Political party TOP 09 and its leader Karel Schwarzenberg are studied during the political campaign preceding Czech legislative election in May 2010. The study is based on TOP 09's documents and interviews of Karel Schwarzenberg in Czech media. Theoretical part of this thesis is dedicated to concepts of political marketing, influence of media and models of communication. Content analysis compares themes and ways to speak about them used by the party and by Schwarzenberg. Qualitative analysis asks if the party can make use of Schwrazenberg for its own campaign and how strength and what sort of are relations between TOP 09 and its leader.

Diploma thesis Social networks and election to Chamber of Deputies in year 2010 covers activities of political parties on internet social networks such as Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. The thesis also covers some civic engagements, which intervened electoral campaign and later influenced people decision in election to the Parliament of Czech republic. The first part describes how political parties, which has entered the Chamber of Deputies, used potential of social networks in campaign and how their activities differed from party to party and also by social networks. The thesis discovers how political parties saw campaign on social networks and which forms of promotion they used. Second part is about activities of civic engagements on social networks and about their influence on results of the election. Diploma thesis discovers if their success depended on social networks. In the last part of the thesis, a research was made on a group of users of social networks. It analysed the influence of political parties' campaigns on social networks and also civic engagements on the results of this parliamentary election.

This study examines the party-controlled communication of the five most important political parties in the North West Province of South Africa during the 1999 general elections. The main assumption is that political parties in developing democracies have a normative obligation to do more than canvas for votes during an election campaign. Political parties should also be instrumental through their communication in fostering a democratic political culture. Central to this argument is the notion that a typical marketing approach is not suitable for an election campaign in a developing democracy. In accordance with the participatory approach to development, it is thus proposed that the two-way symmetrical model for public relations (as proposed by James Grunig) is a more appropriate approach to election campaigns. Especially relevant for this study is the two-way symmetrical model's emphasis on interaction and the establishment of long tern relationships with target publics. Through an extensive qualitative analysis of all relevant material (party manifests, newspaper advertisements, radio advertisements, pamphlets, posters and web pages), it was found that South African political parties placed much less emphasis on the "image" of the party or its leader compared to their American counterparts. However, that did not imply that the substance of the message was emphasised adequately. On the contrary, the political parties participating in the elections in the North-West province generally failed the normative criteria of informing voters and identifying democratic values adequately. Furthermore it was found that the cognitive and emotional campaign messages were not fully integrated. While the focus was on typical election issues (emotional message), these issues were not explained and contextualised within a developing democracy to the full extend (cognitive message). Therefore the emotional message was not utilised to focus the voter's attention on policy issues and democratic values. In conclusion it is argued that political parties should do much more than merely canvas for votes. They should also empower voters by informing them on their policy issues and highlighting democratic values in society. Only then the new South African democracy will be sustainable. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Communication Studies))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2004.

This study examines the party-controlled communication of the five most important political parties in the North West Province of South Africa during the 1999 general elections. The main assumption is that political parties in developing democracies have a normative obligation to do more than canvas for votes during an election campaign. Political parties should also be instrumental through their communication in fostering a democratic political culture. Central to this argument is the notion that a typical marketing approach is not suitable for an election campaign in a developing democracy. In accordance with the participatory approach to development, it is thus proposed that the two-way symmetrical model for public relations (as proposed by James Grunig) is a more appropriate approach to election campaigns. Especially relevant for this study is the two-way symmetrical model's emphasis on interaction and the establishment of long tern relationships with target publics. Through an extensive qualitative analysis of all relevant material (party manifests, newspaper advertisements, radio advertisements, pamphlets, posters and web pages), it was found that South African political parties placed much less emphasis on the "image" of the party or its leader compared to their American counterparts. However, that did not imply that the substance of the message was emphasised adequately. On the contrary, the political parties participating in the elections in the North-West province generally failed the normative criteria of informing voters and identifying democratic values adequately. Furthermore it was found that the cognitive and emotional campaign messages were not fully integrated. While the focus was on typical election issues (emotional message), these issues were not explained and contextualised within a developing democracy to the full extend (cognitive message). Therefore the emotional message was not utilised to focus the voter's attention on policy issues and democratic values. In conclusion it is argued that political parties should do much more than merely canvas for votes. They should also empower voters by informing them on their policy issues and highlighting democratic values in society. Only then the new South African democracy will be sustainable. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Communication Studies))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2004.