Die Gattung Daphnia nimmt eine zentrale Position im pelagischen Nahrungsnetz vieler Standgewässern (Seen, Talsperren) ein. Aufgrund hoher Filtrierleistungen sind Daphnien für das integrierte Gewässermanagement, z.B. im Rahmen einer Nahrungskettenmanipulation (Biomanipulation), von großem Interesse. Ihre relativ einfache Kultivierbarkeit machte sie außerdem zu einen weit verbreiteten Modellorganismus limnologischer Grundlagenforschung. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit besteht darin, ein umfassendes Modellsystem für die Gattung Daphnia zu entwickeln, das wesentliche Kenntnisse der Ökologie von Daphnia miteinander verknüpft, um eine Vernetzung des Wissens zu realisieren. Bestehende Modellansätze konnten diese Aufgabe nur unzureichend erfüllen, weil sie in der Regel einem "Problem-orientierten Ansatz" folgen und somit sehr unterschiedliche inhaltliche Ausrichtungen und verschiedene Modellstrukturen aufweisen. Eine Kopplung bzw. ein direkter Vergleich dieser Modelle ist deshalb in der Regel schwierig. Dieses Modellsystem wurde entwickelt, um ein Instrument zur Synthese des vorhandenen Prozesswissens bereitzustellen, und nicht, um ein spezifisches, abgegrenztes Problem zu bearbeiten; es steht somit diametral zu existierenden Ansätzen. Aus diesem Grunde wird der gewählte Ansatz als ein "Spezies-orientierter Ansatz" bezeichnet. Drei Eigenschaften charakterisieren diesen Ansatz. (i) Das Modellsystem umfasst mehrere hierarchische Ebenen biologischer Organisation, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf den Ebenen des Individuums und der Population liegt. Interaktionen zwischen diesen Organisationsebenen sind ausgeprägt und in Feld- und Laborstudien gut belegt, in existierenden Modellen aber noch unzureichend miteinander verknüpft. (ii) Da eine quantitative Interpretation der Ergebnisse beabsichtigt ist, wurden die Modellausgaben einer umfangreichen Validation an unabhängigen und bereits publizierten Daten unterzogen. (iii) Das Modellsystem zeichnet sich durch einen geschachtelten Aufbau aus (nested design), wodurch eine einfache Erweiterbarkeit des Modells oder auch die separate Anwendung bestimmter Modellkomponenten gewährleistet ist. / The scope of this thesis was to develop a comprehensive model system of the genus Daphnia, a key organism in the pelagic food web of lakes and reservoirs and a widely used model organism in experimental and theoretical ecology. Although its central role in applied and basic research in aquatic ecology is obvious, there are still fundamental problems in modelling the observed dynamics of Daphnia (for details see chapter 2). Therefore, a basic motivation of this work was to use scientific results obtained in independently conducted research for developing a model that brings these results into context. Instead of following a "problem-oriented" paradigm applicable to a single, well defined problem or scientific hypothesis, the underlying concept of the emerging model system was considered to be "species-oriented". Thus, various relevant processes are included into the framework in order to simulate the dynamics of daphnids displayed on different levels of biological organization. To facilitate its application to various problems in ecological research on the genus Daphnia, the model system fulfills the following three important properties: (1) model outputs are thoroughly validated on experimental data in order to guarantee sound quantitative outputs of the model system (2) the system spans over different levels of biological organization with special emphasis laid upon the individual level and the population level (3) the model´s architecture follows a nested design with a defined individual level model that is integrated into a population level model The whole model system is able to describe an individual´s development over time on basis of physiological properties of the organism and, furthermore, how these individual level processes interact with the dynamics on the population level. Due to its nested design, applications of separate submodels (e.g. the individual-level model) are possible.

No description available.

The population dynamics and demography of Daphnia galeata was analysed in a five year study in the biomanipulated Bautzen Reservoir. Samples were taken two times a week during the period May-July in the pelagic zone of this highly eutrophic water. Major bottom-up and top-down factors were determined during the study period and analysed with regard to their influence on Daphnia dynamics and life history. Field data on fecundity and population structure of D. galeata were combined with results from life table and growth experiments performed under approximately in situ conditions to gain insight into the mechanisms leading to a midsummer decline of this cladoceran species which dominates the zooplankton community in Bautzen Reservoir. Two main patterns of Daphnia dynamics emerged: In years without a midsummer decline the population increased slowly in spring, starting from low densities. High water transparency was observed already during the build-up of the population of D. galeata. Despite considerable fluctuations, Daphnia abundance remained on a high level throughout summer. In years with a midsummer decline the population started from relatively high densities in early May and more than doubled during one week. Peak densities were reached before the clear-water stage emerged. At the end of this period the population declined to low values which lasted for the rest of the summer. Fecundity of the Population of D. galeata declined, whereas the mean egg volume increased at the beginning of the clear-water stage as a result of declining food levels. The size at maturity (SAM) remained high during this period. Additionally, juvenile growth was reduced and the age at maturity was retarded. Survival probability was low for those daphnids born shortly before or during the clear-water stage compared to those born later. It can be concluded from these results that recruitment to adult stages is strongly reduced during the clear-water stage. The end of this period is marked by an alternation in generations. Only at that time can SAM be reduced because the new generation of adults matures at a smaller size, carrying small eggs. A high impact of non-predatory adult mortality can be expected when the population is dominated by a strong peak-cohort during the clear-water stage according to recruitment patterns during the build-up of the population. The most drastic decline both of Daphnia abundance and SAM was observed in those years when the biomass of juvenile fish exceeded 20 kg ha-1 at the end of the clear-water stage. Due to gape-size limitation juvenile fish mainly feed on juvenile daphnids during this period and thus, they reinforce bottom-up effects on the Daphnia population. When fish change their size selection towards adult daphnids at the time when the new generation takes over, this seems to represent the worst case for the Daphnia population. Consequently, the timing between bottom-up effects and the feeding pressure of juvenile fish determines the extent of the decline. - (This manuscript is also available - in the form of a book - from Shaker Verlag GmbH, Postfach 101818, 52018 Aachen, Germany world-wide web address: http://www.shaker.de, electronic-mail address: info@shaker.de. It has been posted on the web sites of Dresden University of Technology with the permission of the publisher)

Conservation in the EU and all over the world aims at reducing biodiversity loss which has become a great issue in the last decades. However, despite existing efforts, Earth is assumed to face a sixth mass extinction. One major challenge for conservation is to reconcile the targets with conflicting interests, e.g. for food production in intensively used agricultural landscapes. Agriculture is an example of a coupled human-environment system that is approached in this thesis with the help of mathematical models from two directions. Firstly, the ecological subsystem is considered to find processes relevant for the effect of habitat connectivity on population abundances. Modelling theory predicts that the species-specific growth parameters (intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity) indicate whether dispersal has a positive or negative effect on the total population size at equilibrium (r-K relationship). We use laboratory experiments in combination with a system of ordinary differential equations and deliver the first empirical evidence for a negative effect of dispersal on the population size in line with this theory. The result is of particular relevance for the design of dispersal corridors or stepping stones which are meant to increase connectivity between habitats. These measures might not be effective for biological conservation. A second population model, consisting of two coupled Ricker maps with a mate-finding Allee effect, is analyzed in order to examine the effect of bistability due to the Allee effect in combination with overcompensation in a spatial system. The interplay can cause complex population dynamics including multiple coexisting attractors, long transients and sudden population collapses. Essential extinction teaches us that not only small populations are prone to extinction but chaotic dynamics can drive a population extinct in a short period of time as well. By a comprehensive model analysis, we find that dispersal can prevent essential extinction of a population. In the context of conservation that is: habitat connectivity can promote rescue effects to save a population that exhibits an Allee effect. The two findings of the first part of this thesis have contrasting implications for conservation which shows that universal recommendations regarding habitat connectivity are impossible without knowledge of the specific system. Secondly, a model for the socio-economic subsystem is presented. Agri-environment schemes (AES) are payments that compensate farmers for forgone profits on the condition that they improve the ecological state of the agricultural system. However, classical economic models that describe the cost-effectiveness of AES often do not take the social network of farmers into account. Numerical simulations of the socio-economic model presented in this thesis suggest that social norms can hinder farmers from scheme participation. Moreover, social norms lead to multistability in farmers’ land-use decision behaviour. Informational campaigns potentially decrease the threshold towards more long-term scheme participation and might be a good tool to complement compensation payments if social norms affect land-use decisions. Finally, a coupled human-environment system is analyzed. An integrated economicecological model is studied to investigate the cost-effectiveness of AES if the species of concern exhibits an Allee effect. A numerical model analysis indicates large trade-offs between agricultural production and persistence probability. Moreover, conservation success strongly depends on the initial population size, meaning that conservation is well advised to start before the species is threatened. Spatial aggregation of habitat can promote rescue effects, suggesting land-sparing solutions for conservation. In that case,agglomeration bonuses may serve to increase the effectiveness of AES. Possible causes for population declines are diverse and can be a combination of human influences, e.g. due to habitat degradation and inherent ecosystem properties. That complicates the task of conservation. The models presented in this thesis simplify complex systems in order to extract processes relevant for biological conservation. The analysis of spatial effects and dynamical model complexity, e.g. due to Allee effects or a nonlinear utility function, allows us improve the understanding of coupled human-environment systems.

[pt] Uma propriedade notável dos sistemas biológicos é a formação de estruturas espaciais. Estas podem surgir por auto-organização, como consequência das próprias interações entre os indivíduos. Para estudar estas estruturas e como elas emergem, têm sido muito úteis modelos simples para a dinâmica da densidade espacial de uma população, que levam em conta apenas certos processos elementares (como reprodução, competição e dispersão). Em particular, a equação de FKPP (Fisher-Kolmogorov- Petrovski-Piskunov), que inclui simplesmente o crescimento logístico mais a difusão normal, é um modelo clássico para a dinâmica de uma população de uma única espécie. Dentro do quadro minimalista da equação de FKPP e suas variantes, a competição à distância (ou, não local) é a principal responsável por produzir oscilações espaciais na densidade da população. Entretanto, a não localidade pode ocorrer também nos demais processos. Assim, um primeiro objetivo desta tese é investigar como as diferentes escalas espaciais presentes podem interferir entre si, afetando a formação de padrões. Para isso, consideramos uma generalização da equação de FKPP em que todos os termos são não locais, em um ambiente homogêneo com condições de contorno periódicas. Enquanto a competição é o principal processo por trás da formação de padrões, mostramos que os outros dois podem agir de forma construtiva ou destrutiva. Por exemplo, a difusão, que comumente homogeniza, pode favorecer a formação de padrões dependendo do formato e alcance das funções de influência de cada processo. Em um segundo estudo, motivado por resultados experimentais, procuramos entender como a variabilidade da difusividade pode impactar a organização espacial da população dentro e fora de um refúgio (região de alta qualidade imersa em um ambiente hostil). Para tanto, consideramos uma outra generalização da equação de FKPP, com não localidade apenas no processo de competição intra-espécie, e modificada para levar em conta a presença do refúgio. Além da dependência espacial da taxa de crescimento, que é a principal característica distintiva de um refúgio em um ambiente hostil, também consideramos o fato de que a mobilidade pode ser heterogênea no espaço ou depender da densidade populacional. Focamos em dois casos em que a difusividade responde à densidade de indivíduos, diminuindo ou aumentando com a densidade populacional. Para comparação, também abordamos a difusividade dependente do espaço, com valores diferentes dentro e fora do refúgio. Observamos que o limiar da formação de padrões, no espaço de parâmetros, é bastante robusto diante destas heterogeneidades. Por outro lado, a dependência com a densidade pode produzir uma realimentação que está ausente em meios homogêneos, e que afeta a forma dos padrões. Em todos os casos, os resultados foram obtidos mediante a integração numérica das equações integro-diferenciais e realizando considerações analíticas. / [en] A remarkable property of biological systems is the formation of spatial structures. These can arise by self-organization, as a consequence of the interactions between individuals. To study these structures and how they emerge, simple models for the dynamics of the spatial density of a population, which take into account only certain elementary processes (such as reproduction, competition and dispersion) have been very useful. In particular, the FKPP (Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov) equation, which simply includes logistic growth plus normal diffusion, is a classic model for the dynamics of a population of a single species. Within the minimalist framework of the FKPP equation and its variants, distance (or, non-local) competition is primarily responsible for producing spatial oscillations in population density. However, non-locality can also be present in other processes. Then, a first objective of this thesis is to investigate how the different spatial scales which are present in each process can interfere between them, affecting the formation of patterns in a homogeneous environment with periodic boundary conditions. For this purpose, we consider a generalization of the FKPP equation in which all terms are nonlocal. While competition is the main process behind pattern formation, we show that the other two can act constructively or destructively. For example, diffusion, which commonly homogenizes, can favor the formation of patterns depending on the format and range of the influence functions of each process. In a second study, motivated by experimental results, we seek to understand how the variability of the diffusivity can impact the spatial organization of the population inside and outside a refuge (a high-quality region immersed in a hostile environment). Therefore, we consider another generalization of the FKPP equation, with non-locality only in the intra-species competition process, modified to take into account the presence of the refuge. In addition to the spatial dependence of the growth rate, which is the main distinguishing feature of a refuge in a hostile environment, we also consider the fact that mobility can be spatially heterogeneous or depend on population density. We focus on two cases in which diffusivity responds to the density of individuals, decreasing or increasing with population density. For comparison, we also address spacedependent diffusivity, with different values inside and outside the refuge. We observed that the threshold of pattern formation in parameter space is quite robust under the presence of these heterogeneities. On the other hand, density dependence can produce a feedback that is absent in homogeneous media, and that affects the shape of the patterns. In all cases, the results were obtained by numerical simulations of the integro-differential equations and by analytical considerations.

No description available.

Data collected during boat-based and aerial surveys were used to describe population structure, movements, temporal patterns of migration and skin condition of humpback whales in breeding sub-stock C1-S off southern Africa. Results confirmed that the migration route along the south coast of South Africa is linked to the winter ground off Mozambique. A lack of exchange between breeding sub-stocks C1-N and C1-S was found, suggesting that these are independent of each other. Molecular analysis revealed unexpected levels of population structure between the migration route and the winter ground of C1-S, as well as the possibility that this migration route is also utilised by some individuals from breeding sub-stock C3. A skin condition of unknown aetiology that primarily affects humpback whale mother-calf pairs was identified. The first assessment of its prevalence and severity was made, providing a baseline for future monitoring. Humpback whale abundance in an inshore region of Bazaruto Archipelago, Mozambique was estimated and attempts were also made to use the limited information off Plettenberg Bay/Knysna, South Africa. In addition to improving our understanding of humpback whales from Breeding Stock C, knowledge about another baleen whale species utilising the southwest Indian Ocean was extended. The first evidence of southern right whale presence off the coast of Mozambique since the cessation of whaling was documented. It remains unknown whether this is a remnant sub-stock or the recovering South African sub-stock reoccupying its historical range.

Integrated data analyses are becoming increasingly popular in studies of wild animal populations where two or more separate sources of data contain information about common parameters. Here we develop an integrated population model using abundance and demographic data from a study of common guillemots (Uria aalge) on the Isle of May, southeast Scotland. A state-space model for the count data is supplemented by three demographic time series (productivity and two mark-recapture-recovery (MRR)), enabling the estimation of prebreeder emigration rate - a parameter for which there is no direct observational data, and which is unidentifiable in the separate analysis of MRR data. A Bayesian approach using MCMC provides a flexible and powerful analysis framework. This model is extended to provide predictions of future population trajectories. Adopting random effects models for the survival and productivity parameters, we implement the MCMC algorithm to obtain a posterior sample of the underlying process means and variances (and population sizes) within the study period. Given this sample, we predict future demographic parameters, which in turn allows us to predict future population sizes and obtain the corresponding posterior distribution. Under the assumption that recent, unfavourable conditions persist in the future, we obtain a posterior probability of 70% that there is a population decline of >25% over a 10-year period. Lastly, using MRR data we test for spatial, temporal and age-related correlations in guillemot survival among three widely separated Scottish colonies that have varying overlap in nonbreeding distribution. We show that survival is highly correlated over time for colonies/age classes sharing wintering areas, and essentially uncorrelated for those with separate wintering areas. These results strongly suggest that one or more aspects of winter environment are responsible for spatiotemporal variation in survival of British guillemots, and provide insight into the factors driving multi-population dynamics of the species.

Commercialisées depuis 1996, les plantes génétiquement modifiées produisant une toxine insecticide (toxine Cry) dérivée de Bacillus thuringiensis et appelées plantes Bt ciblent certains Lépidoptères ou Coléoptères ravageurs. Au fil des ans, les surfaces cultivées en plantes Bt sont de plus en plus importantes et contrôlent de larges populations d'insectes. Pour limiter le risque de développement de populations résistantes, une stratégie agricole appelée 'Haute Dose / Zone Refuge' est actuellement recommandée aux Etats-Unis par l'Environmental Protection Agency. Cette stratégie préventive nécessite la plantation d'une 'zone refuge' composée de plantes non-Bt utilisables par le ravageur ciblé et plantée à proximité de la 'zone Bt' qui synthétise une haute dose de toxine Cry. Mon projet de recherche s’inscrit dans le cadre de l’évaluation de l'efficacité de cette stratégie et s’articule en deux phases : une phase expérimentale et une phase théorique. La première se concentre sur la caractérisation en laboratoire de l'impact des toxines Cry sur la biologie d'un ravageur. Cette phase constitue un support au volet théorique : la mise au point d’un modèle mathématique évaluant l'efficacité de la stratégie HD/R. L'originalité de ce projet repose entre autre sur l'interactivité entre ces deux volets. Volet expérimental. Impact des toxines Cry sur la biologie de Plodia interpunctella. Nous évaluons séparément l'impact d'une gamme de concentrations de deux toxines Cry (CryXX et CryYY) sur une série de paramètres comportementaux et biologiques d'un insecte commun des denrées stockées: Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera : Pyralidae). Ces paramètres sont sélectionnés car leur variation pourrait avoir un impact sur l'efficacité de la stratégie HD/R dans le contrôle de la résistance. Il est donc pertinent de les quantifier pour intégrer dans le modèle des ordres de grandeur réalistes et générer des résultats qui ne sont pas uniquement basés sur des spéculations théoriques. Volet théorique A. Efficacité de la stratégie HD/R pour des plantes Bt synthétisant une ou deux toxines simultanément. La stratégie 'HD/R' a été développée pour prévenir la résistance envers les plantes Bt synthétisant une seule toxine. Or, depuis 2003, de nouvelles variétés de coton Bt synthétisant simultanément deux toxines Cry sont commercialisées (BollgardII® et WidestrikeTM). Nous évaluons, grâce au modèle que nous avons développé, l'efficacité de cette stratégie lors d'une utilisation exclusive de plantes Bt synthétisant une ou deux toxines. Volet théorique B. Impact du ralentissement du développement des insectes sur les plantes Bt sur l'efficacité de la stratégie HD/R. Le volet expérimental met en évidence un allongement de la durée du développement des larves se nourrissant sur une diète contaminée en toxine Cry. Ce ralentissement induit une séparation temporelle entre l'émergence des adultes de la zone Bt et de la zone refuge et perturbe une hypothèse principale de la stratégie HD/R: le croisement aléatoire entre adultes, indépendamment du génotype et de la zone d'origine. Dans ce troisième chapitre, nous étudions l'impact de la perturbation du croisement aléatoire sur l'efficacité de la stratégie HD/R. Nous testons également deux options pour optimiser la stratégie en cas d'asynchronie: l'utilisation de plantes Bt synthétisant une faible concentration en toxine (atténuant le décalage entre l'émergence des adultes) ou l'augmentation de la taille de la zone refuge (favorisant la survie des individus porteurs d'allèle de sensibilité et donc optimisant la dilution de la résistance à la génération suivante). Ce travail s'intègre dans une problématique actuelle et utilise des outils de biologie théorique (théories de la dynamique et de la génétique des populations) ainsi que le développement d'un modèle mathématique. Il apporte des éléments de réponse et de réflexion sur l'optimisation de la gestion de la résistance des insectes mais c'est aussi une illustration de la complémentarité entre la biologie expérimentale et théorique. / On the market since 1996, genetically modified plants synthesizing an insecticidal toxin (Cry toxin) stemmed from Bacillus thuringiensis, called Bt plants, target several insect pests (Lepidoptera or Coleoptera). Bt crops cover increasingly larger areas and control important pest populations The Insect Resistance Management Strategy (IRM) strategy currently recommended in the U.S.A. to limit the development of resistant populations is the High Dose / Refuge zone (HD/R) strategy. This pre-emptive strategy requires a refuge zone composed by non-Bt plants, usable by the target insect and in close proximity of the Bt zone synthesizing a high toxin concentration. My research project contributes to the effectiveness assessment of this HD/R strategy. It is structured on two main parts: an experimental, and a theoretical section. The first part characterizes the impact of Cry toxins on the biology of an insect pest. It is the basis of the theoretical part: the implementation of a mathematical model, which evaluates the effectiveness of the HD/R strategy. The originality of this project is based on the interactivity of these two components. Experimental section. Impact of the Cry toxins on the biology of Plodia interpunctella. We assess the impact of a range of concentrations of two Cry toxins (CryXX et CryYY) on several behavioural and biological parameters of a common pest of stored products: Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera : Pyralidae). These parameters are selected because their variation could influence the effectiveness of a HD/R strategy. So, it is important to quantify these parameters so that realistic values can be integrated in our model. The results of the model are thus not based on theoretical assumptions alone. Theoretical section A. Effectiveness of a HD/R strategy with Bt plants synthesizing one or two toxins. Initially, the HD/R strategy has been developed to limit the resistance towards Bt plants synthesizing one toxin. However, since 2003, new Bt cotton varieties synthesize two toxins simultaneously (BollgardII® et WidestrikeTM). We assess, with our model, the effectiveness of this strategy for Bt plants synthesizing one or two toxins. Theoretical section B. Impact of the slowing down of the insect development reared on Bt plants on the effectiveness of the HD/R strategy. The experimental part demonstrates that larvae reared on a Bt diet have a protracted development duration. The consequence of this is a temporal separation between adult emergence in the two zones (Bt zone and refuge zone). This could affect the main assumption of the HD/R strategy, i. e. random mating independently of the genotype and of the native zone. In this third chapter, we study the impact of random mating disruption on the effectiveness of a HD/R strategy. We test two options to optimise the strategy in case of asynchrony: the use of Bt plants synthesizing a lower toxin concentration (limiting emergence asynchrony) or increasing the refuge zone size (favouring the survival of insect carrying one or two susceptible allele and thus optimising the dilution of resistance at the next generation). This work is applied to a current issue. It uses some of the tools of theoretical biology (theories of population dynamics and population genetics) and develops a mathematical model. It provides some responses and some elements of thought about insect resistance management. It is also an illustration of the complementarity between experimental and theoretical biology.

La modélisation dynamique des systèmes écologiques constitue une méthode incontournable pour comprendre,prédire et contrôler la dynamique des écosystèmes semi-naturels, qui fait intervenir des processuscomplexes. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de développer un modèle permettant de simuler la dynamiqueà moyen terme de la végétation herbacée dans les prairies permanentes, en tenant compte à lafois de la productivité et de la biodiversité. Les prairies sont des réservoirs présentant une forte biodiversitévégétale, qui soutiennent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Sur le plan agricole, cette importantediversité contribue à la qualité de la production fourragère, et de plus, elle permet une plus grande résistancede la végétation face à des changements climatiques (réchauffement moyen, vagues de chaleur etde sécheresse).Pourtant, cette notion clé de biodiversité n’est que faiblement prise en considération dans la modélisationde l’écosystème prairial : elle est souvent absente ou alors présente sous une forme très simplifiée. Enréponse à ces considérations, ces travaux de thèse présentent la construction d’un modèle de successionbasé sur des processus, décrit par un système d’équations différentielles ordinaires, qui représente ladynamique de la végétation aérienne des prairies tempérées. Ce modèle intègre les principaux facteursécologiques impactant la croissance et la compétition des espèces herbacées, et peut s’ajuster à n’importequel niveau de diversité, par le choix du nombre et de l’identité des espèces initialement présentes dansl’assemblage. Ce formalisme mécaniste de modélisation nous permet alors d’analyser les relations qui lientdiversité, productivité et stabilité, en réponse à différentes conditions climatiques et différents modes degestion agricole.[...]Ces résultats soulignent alors le besoin de prendre en compte le rôle clé joué par la biodiversité dansles modèles de l’écosystème prairial, de par son impact sur le comportement des dynamiques simulées.De plus, pour rendre correctement compte des interactions au sein de la végétation, le nombre d’espècesconsidéré dans le modèle doit être suffisamment important. Enfin, nous comparons les simulations devégétation de ce modèle à des mesures issues de deux sites expérimentaux, la prairie de fauche d’Oensingen,et le pâturage de Laqueuille. Les résultats de ces comparaisons sont encourageants et soulignentla pertinence du choix et de la représentation des processus écologiques clés qui composent ce modèlemécaniste.Ce travail de thèse propose donc un modèle, en total adéquation avec les besoins actuels en terme demodélisation de l’écosystème prairial, qui permet de mieux comprendre la dynamique de la végétationherbacée et les interactions entre productivité, diversité et stabilité. / Dynamic modelling of ecological systems is an essential method to understand, predict and control thedynamics of semi-natural ecosystems, which involves complex processes. The main objective of this PhDthesis is to develop a simulation model of the medium- and long-term dynamics of the herbaceous vegetationin permanent grasslands, taking into account both biodiversity and productivity. Grasslandecosystems are often hot spots of biodiversity, which contributes to the temporal stability of their services.On an agricultural perspective, this important biodiversity contributes to the forage quality, andbesides, it induces a higher ability of the vegetation cover to resist to different climatic scenarios (globalwarming, heat and drought waves).However, this key aspect of biodiversity is only poorly included in grassland models : often absent ofmodelling or included in a very simple form. Building on those considerations, this PhD work exposes thewriting of a process-based succession model, described by a system of Ordinary Differential Equationsthat simulates the aboveground vegetation dynamics of a temperate grassland. This model implementedthe main ecological factors involved in growth and competition processes of herbaceous species, and couldbe adjust to any level of diversity, by varying the number and the identity of species in the initial plantcommunity. This formalism of mechanistic models allows us to analyse relationships that link diversity,productivity and stability, in response to different climatic conditions and agricultural management.In mathematical grassland models, plant communities may be represented by a various number of statevariables, describing biomass compartments of some dominant species or plant functional types. The sizeof the initial species pool could have consequences on the outcome of the simulated ecosystem dynamicsin terms of grassland productivity, diversity, and stability. This choice could also influence the modelsensitivity to forcing parameters. To address these issues, we developed a method, based on sensitivityanalysis tools, to compare behaviour of alternative versions of the model that only differ by the identityand number of state variables describing the green biomass, here plant species. This method shows aninnovative aspect, by performing this model sensitivity analysis by using multivariate regression trees. Weassessed and compared the sensitivity of each instance of the model to key forcing parameters for climate,soil fertility, and defoliation disturbances. We established that the sensitivity to forcing parameters ofcommunity structure and species evenness differed markedly among alternative models, according tothe diversity level. We show a progressive shift from high importance of soil fertility (fertilisation level,mineralization rate) to high importance of defoliation (mowing frequency, grazing intensity) as the sizeof the species pool increased.These results highlight the need to take into account the role of species diversity to explain the behaviourof grassland models. Besides, to properly take into account those interactions in the grassland cover, theconsidered species pool size considered in the model needs to be high enough. Finally, we compare modelsimulations of the aboveground vegetation to measures from two experimental sites, the mowing grasslandof Oensingen, and the grazing grassland of Laqueuille. Results of these comparison are promising andhighlight the relevance of the choice and the representation of the different ecological processes includedin this mechanistic model.Thus, this PhD work offers a model, perfectly fitting with current needs on grassland modelling, whichcontribute to a better understanding of the herbaceous vegetation dynamics and interactions betweenproductivity, diversity and stability.