It is evident that Ethiopia is one of the countries of Africa that is experiencing significant population growth as well as land use/cover dynamics. Land use/cover induced degradation of natural resources is a major challenge to the country’s development. The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact population dynamics has had on land use/cover in Mandura district. Data on population over time were taken from the CSA during the 1984, 1994 and 2007 national census results. A total of 210 farm households from three kebeles: 105 from the local people and 105 from migrants were surveyed in May 2011 to acquire data on socioeconomic, land use, resource use and management. Aerial photographs of 1957, 1982 and SPOT-5 image of the 2006/07 were used to generate data on land use/cover changes. The results indicate that population has substantially increased, more than fourfold between 1957-2006/07, mainly due to migration from the surrounding areas, government sponsored resettlements, and flourishing of new urban centers. No less important is mortality has decreased due to immunization and the birth rate has been increasing due to improved maternal and child care as compared to the situation prior to the 1990s. The change on land use/cover show that from the total land use/cover conversions, which totals 58,403 ha of land, farm land constitutes 90.1 %. The study finds natural population increase, migration, urbanization, agricultural extensification, institutional weakness, land tenure insecurity, famine and drought, and poverty as root causes. The study further identifies existence of all weather road, resettlement, Tana-Beles project, expansion of agriculture, land colonization, wood extraction for fuel, and soil fertility decline as direct causes of land use/cover changes. As a result of change of customary land tenure system, the local population has been forced to engage in extractive economic activities that have never been practiced in the past. Therefore, the study calls for coordinated efforts for resources use and management at different levels, land use policy formulation, devising alternative sources of livelihoods and fuel, regulating migration and involvement of the wider community in policy formulation and implementations. / Geography / Ph. D. (Geography)

La gestion durable des ressources naturelles vivantes est un problème majeur dans un contexte de raréfaction, dû à l'impact de l'homme et à une incertitude omniprésente. Améliorer les outils existant et en développer de nouveaux pour conseiller les gestionnaires sur l'évolution potentielle des ressources naturelles vivantes, selon divers scénarios environnementaux et de gestion, est nécessaire. Cette thèse a pour but de contribuer au développement d'une méthodologie pour l'aide à la décision pour la gestion des ressources naturelles vivantes, tout en prenant en compte les sources d'incertitude majeures. Ce travail est appliqué au cas de la population de saumon atlantique (Salmo salar L.) de la Nivelle (France). Cette population fait l'objet d'un programme de suivi à long terme et cette espèce a été largement étudiée. Cette dernière est menacée mais elle est toujours ciblée par la pêche commerciale et récréative. Elle illustre la dualité entre conservation et exploitation, qui est au coeur de la gestion des ressources naturelles vivantes. Pour gérer une population, il est nécessaire de comprendre sa dynamique et de prédire son évolution sous divers scénarios environnementaux et de gestion. L'approche Bayésienne fournit un cadre cohérent pour quantifier l'incertitude sous ses différentes formes. Les modèles hiérarchiques permettent l'assimilation de sources de données multiples et de faire des inférences et des prédictions sur des grandeurs spatio-temporelles inconnues. Un modèle stochastique d'état Bayésien, i.e. un modèle hiérarchique Bayésien dynamique, est construit pour étudier la dynamique de la population d'intérêt et pour prédire son évolution. La théorie de la décision en univers incertain fournit un cadre pour aider un individu dans ses choix, mais son application reste difficile. En théorie, une fonction d'utilité qui dépend des conséquences des alternatives de gestion reflète les préférences d'un individu unique impliqué dans un problème décisionnel. En pratique, sa construction est malaisée. Premièrement, il estdifficile de définir une valeur pour chaque conséquence. Deuxièmement, il y a généralement plus d'un individu impliqué dans le problème décisionnel. Par conséquent, on obtient une classe de fonctions d'utilité. De par les différents intérêts, souvent conflictuels, que les gestionnaires ont à prendre en compte, la fonction d'utilité est multi variée. Dans cette thèse, une classe de fonctions d'utilité bi-variées est construite. Elle prend en compte l'incertitude concernant la fonction, les variations de préférence entre les acteurs et la dualité d'intérêts exploitation vs conservation. Ensuite, une analyse de la robustesse est réalisée pour étudier si la décision optimale, i.e. l'utilité espérée maximale, varie lorsque la fonction d'utilité varie.La méthodologie développée dans cette thèse s'est avérée possible et fructueuse. Elle fournit un cadre cohérent pour organiser les interactions entre scientifiques, acteurs et gestionnaires pour atteindre une compréhension commune des problèmes de décision dans la gestion des ressources naturelles vivantes. En reconnaissant explicitement la diversité des acteurs, elle permet d'identifier des conflits potentiels et de guider les gestionnaires vers des compromis acceptables. Cependant, elle demande un haut niveau de formation et d'expertise en modélisation et en calcul. Elle implique également un temps d'analyse important. Comment rendre ces exigences compatibles avec le niveau actuel d'expertise et les agendas à court terme des structures de gestion est un challenge principal pour le futur. / The sustainable management of natural living resources is a major issue in a context of increasing scarcity due to human impact and of pervasive uncertainty. Improving existing tools and developing new ones to advise decision makers on the potential evolution of natural living resources, according to various management and environmental scenarios, is requested. This PhD aims at contributing to the development of a methodology for decision making for natural living resources management, while taking into account major sources of uncertainty. This is achieved through the study case of the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) population ofthe Nivelle River (France). This population is subjected to a long term monitoring program and the species has been extensively studied. Atlantic salmon is a threatened species but still targeted by commercial and recreational fisheries. It illustrates the duality between conservation and exploitation which is at the heart of natural living resource management. To manage a population, it is necessary to understand its dynamics and to predict its evolution under various management and environmental scenarios. The Bayesian approach provides a coherent framework to quantify uncertainty in its different forms. Hierarchical models allow the assimilation of multiple sources of data and to make spatio-temporal inferences and predictions. A Bayesian state space model, i.e. a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model, is constructed to study the dynamics of the population of interest and topredict its evolution. The decision theory under uncertainty provides a framework to help an individual in its choices, but its application still raises difficulties. In theory, a utility function depending on the consequences of alternative actions reflects the preferences of a single individual involved in a decision problem. In practice, its construction is challenging. Firstly, it is difficult to assign a value for each consequence. Secondly, there is usually more than one individual involved in the decision problem. Consequently, we obtain a set of utility functions. Due to the various and often conflicting interests the decision maker has to take into account, the utility function is multivariate. In this PhD, a set of bivariate utility functions is constructed. It accounts for the uncertainty about the function, the variation of preferences among stakeholders and the dual interests of exploitation vs conservation. Next, a robustness analysis is performed to study if the optimal decision, i.e. associated to the maximum expected utility, varies when the utility function varies. The methodology developed in this PhD proved practicable and fruitful. It provides a coherent framework for organizing the interactions between scientists, stakeholders and decision makers for reaching a common understanding of decision problems in the management of natural living resources. By acknowledging explicitly the diversity among stakeholders, it allows to identify potential conflict and it helps guiding decision makers towards acceptable trade-off actions. However, it requires a high level of training and expertise in modelling and computation. It involves also thoughtful and time consuming analyses. How to render these requirements compatible with the current level of expertise and the short term agendas of management bodies is a main challenge for the near future.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Nesta dissertação é apresentada uma modelagem analítica para o processo evolucionário formulado pela Teoria da Evolução por Endossimbiose representado através de uma sucessão de estágios envolvendo diferentes interações ecológicas e metábolicas entre populações de bactérias considerando tanto a dinâmica populacional como os processos produtivos dessas populações. Para tal abordagem é feito uso do sistema de equações diferenciais conhecido como sistema de Volterra-Hamilton bem como de determinados conceitos geométricos envolvendo a Teoria KCC e a Geometria Projetiva. Os principais cálculos foram realizados pelo pacote de programação algébrica FINSLER, aplicado sobre o MAPLE. / This work presents an analytical approach for modeling the evolutionary process formulated by the Serial Endosymbiosis Theory represented by a succession of stages involving different metabolic and ecological interactions among populations of bacteria considering both the population dynamics and production processes of these populations. In such approach we make use of systems of differential equations known as Volterra-Hamilton systems as well as some geometric concepts involving the KCC Theory and the Projective Geometry. The main calculations were performed by the computer algebra software FINSLER based on MAPLE.

Linking environmental variation to population dynamics is necessary to understand and predict how the environment influences species abundances and distributions. I used demographic, environmental and trait data of forest herbs to study effects of spatial variation in environmental factors on populations as well as environmental change in terms of effects of forest succession on field layer plants. The results show that abundances of field layer species during forest succession are correlated with their functional traits; species with high specific leaf area increased more in abundance. I also found that soil nutrients affect vegetative and flowering phenology of the forest herb Actaea spicata. The effect of nutrients shows that a wider range of environmental factors than usually assumed can influence plant phenology. Moreover, local environmental factors affected also the demography of A. spicata through effects on vital rates. An abiotic factor, soil potassium affecting individual growth rate, was more important for population growth rate than seed predation, the most conspicuous biotic interaction in this system. Density independent changes in soil potassium during forest succession, and to a lesser extent plant population size dependent seed predation, were predicted to alter population growth rate, and thereby the abundance, of A. spicata over time. Because these environmental factors had effects on population projections, they can potentially influence the occupancy pattern of this species along successional gradients. I conclude that including deterministic, as opposed to stochastic, environmental change in demographic models enables assessments of the effects of processes such as succession, altered land-use, and climate change on population dynamics. Models explicitly incorporating environmental factors are useful for studying population dynamics in a realistic context, and to guide management of threatened species in changing environments.

This thesis consists of four papers, three papers about modelling animal populations and one paper about an area integral estimate for solutions of partial differential equations on non-smooth domains. The papers are: I. Å. Brännström, Single species population models from first principles. II. Å. Brännström and D. J. T. Sumpter, Stochastic analogues of deterministic single species population models. III. Å. Brännström and D. J. T. Sumpter, Coupled map lattice approximations for spatially explicit individual-based models of ecology. IV. Å. Brännström, An area integral estimate for higher order parabolic equations. In the first paper we derive deterministic discrete single species population models with first order feedback, such as the Hassell and Beverton-Holt model, from first principles. The derivations build on the site based method of Sumpter & Broomhead (2001) and Johansson & Sumpter (2003). A three parameter generalisation of the Beverton-Holtmodel is also derived, and one of the parameters is shown to correspond directly to the underlying distribution of individuals. The second paper is about constructing stochastic population models that incorporate a given deterministic skeleton. Using the Ricker model as an example, we construct several stochastic analogues and fit them to data using the method of maximum likelihood. The results show that an accurate stochastic population model is most important when the dynamics are periodic or chaotic, and that the two most common ways of constructing stochastic analogues, using additive normally distributed noise or multiplicative lognormally distributed noise, give models that fit the data well. The latter is also motivated on theoretical grounds. In the third paper we approximate a spatially explicit individual-based model with a stochastic coupledmap lattice. The approximation effectively disentangles the deterministic and stochastic components of the model. Based on this approximation we argue that the stable population dynamics seen for short dispersal ranges is a consequence of increased stochasticity from local interactions and dispersal. Finally, the fourth paper contains a proof that for solutions of higher order real homogeneous constant coefficient parabolic operators on Lipschitz cylinders, the area integral dominates the maximal function in the L2-norm.

An object-oriented framework is presented for developing and simulating individual-based models of cell populations. The framework supplies classes to define objects called simulation channels that encapsulate the algorithms that make up a simulation model. These may govern state-updating events at the individual level, perform global state changes, or trigger cell division. Simulation engines control the scheduling and execution of collections of simulation channels, while a simulation manager coordinates the engines according to one of two scheduling protocols. When the ensemble of cells being simulated reaches a specified maximum size, a procedure is introduced whereby random cells are ejected from the simulation and replaced by newborn cells to keep the sample population size constant but representative in composition. The framework permits recording of population snapshot data and/or cell lineage histories. Use of the framework is demonstrated through validation benchmarks and two case studies based on experiments from the literature.

This dissertation is concerned with effects dispersal and forest structure on forest insect population dynamics, and with identifying generating processes by comparing observed patterns to model predictions. In chapter 2, we investigated effects of changing forest landscape patterns on integro-difference models of host-parasitoid population dynamics. We demonstrated that removing habitat can increase herbivore density when herbivores don't disperse far, and parasitoids disperse further, due to differences in dispersal success between trophic levels. This is a novel potential explanation for why forest fragmentation increases the duration of forest tent caterpillar outbreaks. To better understand spatial model behaviour, we proposed a new local variation of the dispersal success approximation. The approximation successfully predicts effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on realistically complex landscapes, except when outbreak cycle amplitude is very large. Local dispersal success is useful in part because parameters can be estimated from widely available habitat data. In chapter 3, we investigated how well a discretized integro-difference model of mountain pine beetle population dynamics predicted the occurrence of new infestations in British Columbia. We found that a model with a large dispersal kernel, and high emigration from new, low severity infestations yielded the best predictions. However, we do not believe this to be convincing evidence that many beetles disperse from new, low severity infestations. Rather, we argued that differences in habitat quality, detection errors, and Moran effects can all confound dispersal patterns, making it difficult to infer dispersal parameters from observed infestation patterns. Nonetheless, predicting infestation risk is useful, and large kernels improve predictions. In chapter 4, we used generalized linear mixed models to characterize spatial and temporal variation in the propensity of jack pine trees to produce pollen cones, and account for confounding effects on the relationship between pollen cone production and previous defoliation by jack pine budworm. We found effects of stand age, and synchronous variation in pollen cone production among years. Accounting for background patterns in pollen cone production clarified that pollen cone production declines in with previous defoliation, as expected.

An object-oriented framework is presented for developing and simulating individual-based models of cell populations. The framework supplies classes to define objects called simulation channels that encapsulate the algorithms that make up a simulation model. These may govern state-updating events at the individual level, perform global state changes, or trigger cell division. Simulation engines control the scheduling and execution of collections of simulation channels, while a simulation manager coordinates the engines according to one of two scheduling protocols. When the ensemble of cells being simulated reaches a specified maximum size, a procedure is introduced whereby random cells are ejected from the simulation and replaced by newborn cells to keep the sample population size constant but representative in composition. The framework permits recording of population snapshot data and/or cell lineage histories. Use of the framework is demonstrated through validation benchmarks and two case studies based on experiments from the literature.

The population dynamics and demography of Daphnia galeata was analysed in a five year study in the biomanipulated Bautzen Reservoir. Samples were taken two times a week during the period May-July in the pelagic zone of this highly eutrophic water. Major bottom-up and top-down factors were determined during the study period and analysed with regard to their influence on Daphnia dynamics and life history. Field data on fecundity and population structure of D. galeata were combined with results from life table and growth experiments performed under approximately in situ conditions to gain insight into the mechanisms leading to a midsummer decline of this cladoceran species which dominates the zooplankton community in Bautzen Reservoir. Two main patterns of Daphnia dynamics emerged: In years without a midsummer decline the population increased slowly in spring, starting from low densities. High water transparency was observed already during the build-up of the population of D. galeata. Despite considerable fluctuations, Daphnia abundance remained on a high level throughout summer. In years with a midsummer decline the population started from relatively high densities in early May and more than doubled during one week. Peak densities were reached before the clear-water stage emerged. At the end of this period the population declined to low values which lasted for the rest of the summer. Fecundity of the Population of D. galeata declined, whereas the mean egg volume increased at the beginning of the clear-water stage as a result of declining food levels. The size at maturity (SAM) remained high during this period. Additionally, juvenile growth was reduced and the age at maturity was retarded. Survival probability was low for those daphnids born shortly before or during the clear-water stage compared to those born later. It can be concluded from these results that recruitment to adult stages is strongly reduced during the clear-water stage. The end of this period is marked by an alternation in generations. Only at that time can SAM be reduced because the new generation of adults matures at a smaller size, carrying small eggs. A high impact of non-predatory adult mortality can be expected when the population is dominated by a strong peak-cohort during the clear-water stage according to recruitment patterns during the build-up of the population. The most drastic decline both of Daphnia abundance and SAM was observed in those years when the biomass of juvenile fish exceeded 20 kg ha-1 at the end of the clear-water stage. Due to gape-size limitation juvenile fish mainly feed on juvenile daphnids during this period and thus, they reinforce bottom-up effects on the Daphnia population. When fish change their size selection towards adult daphnids at the time when the new generation takes over, this seems to represent the worst case for the Daphnia population. Consequently, the timing between bottom-up effects and the feeding pressure of juvenile fish determines the extent of the decline. - (This manuscript is also available - in the form of a book - from Shaker Verlag GmbH, Postfach 101818, 52018 Aachen, Germany world-wide web address: http://www.shaker.de, electronic-mail address: info@shaker.de. It has been posted on the web sites of Dresden University of Technology with the permission of the publisher)

Die Gattung Daphnia nimmt eine zentrale Position im pelagischen Nahrungsnetz vieler Standgewässern (Seen, Talsperren) ein. Aufgrund hoher Filtrierleistungen sind Daphnien für das integrierte Gewässermanagement, z.B. im Rahmen einer Nahrungskettenmanipulation (Biomanipulation), von großem Interesse. Ihre relativ einfache Kultivierbarkeit machte sie außerdem zu einen weit verbreiteten Modellorganismus limnologischer Grundlagenforschung. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit besteht darin, ein umfassendes Modellsystem für die Gattung Daphnia zu entwickeln, das wesentliche Kenntnisse der Ökologie von Daphnia miteinander verknüpft, um eine Vernetzung des Wissens zu realisieren. Bestehende Modellansätze konnten diese Aufgabe nur unzureichend erfüllen, weil sie in der Regel einem "Problem-orientierten Ansatz" folgen und somit sehr unterschiedliche inhaltliche Ausrichtungen und verschiedene Modellstrukturen aufweisen. Eine Kopplung bzw. ein direkter Vergleich dieser Modelle ist deshalb in der Regel schwierig. Dieses Modellsystem wurde entwickelt, um ein Instrument zur Synthese des vorhandenen Prozesswissens bereitzustellen, und nicht, um ein spezifisches, abgegrenztes Problem zu bearbeiten; es steht somit diametral zu existierenden Ansätzen. Aus diesem Grunde wird der gewählte Ansatz als ein "Spezies-orientierter Ansatz" bezeichnet. Drei Eigenschaften charakterisieren diesen Ansatz. (i) Das Modellsystem umfasst mehrere hierarchische Ebenen biologischer Organisation, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf den Ebenen des Individuums und der Population liegt. Interaktionen zwischen diesen Organisationsebenen sind ausgeprägt und in Feld- und Laborstudien gut belegt, in existierenden Modellen aber noch unzureichend miteinander verknüpft. (ii) Da eine quantitative Interpretation der Ergebnisse beabsichtigt ist, wurden die Modellausgaben einer umfangreichen Validation an unabhängigen und bereits publizierten Daten unterzogen. (iii) Das Modellsystem zeichnet sich durch einen geschachtelten Aufbau aus (nested design), wodurch eine einfache Erweiterbarkeit des Modells oder auch die separate Anwendung bestimmter Modellkomponenten gewährleistet ist. / The scope of this thesis was to develop a comprehensive model system of the genus Daphnia, a key organism in the pelagic food web of lakes and reservoirs and a widely used model organism in experimental and theoretical ecology. Although its central role in applied and basic research in aquatic ecology is obvious, there are still fundamental problems in modelling the observed dynamics of Daphnia (for details see chapter 2). Therefore, a basic motivation of this work was to use scientific results obtained in independently conducted research for developing a model that brings these results into context. Instead of following a "problem-oriented" paradigm applicable to a single, well defined problem or scientific hypothesis, the underlying concept of the emerging model system was considered to be "species-oriented". Thus, various relevant processes are included into the framework in order to simulate the dynamics of daphnids displayed on different levels of biological organization. To facilitate its application to various problems in ecological research on the genus Daphnia, the model system fulfills the following three important properties: (1) model outputs are thoroughly validated on experimental data in order to guarantee sound quantitative outputs of the model system (2) the system spans over different levels of biological organization with special emphasis laid upon the individual level and the population level (3) the model´s architecture follows a nested design with a defined individual level model that is integrated into a population level model The whole model system is able to describe an individual´s development over time on basis of physiological properties of the organism and, furthermore, how these individual level processes interact with the dynamics on the population level. Due to its nested design, applications of separate submodels (e.g. the individual-level model) are possible.