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White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are a highly charismatic game species with considerable ecological and economic impacts across most of their range. In the Central Appalachian Mountains, deer are a keystone species in forested ecosystems. Regionally, populations vary in herd growth or decline. These fluctuations are important in that they often drive many aspects of population management and regulation, which are dependent on herd demographics. Some key population vital rates allowing better understanding of these changes in white-tailed deer herds are survival, cause-specific mortality, home-range variation, both broad and fine-scale resource selection, and ultimately population growth trends in response to changes in both population vital rates and hunter harvest regulations. In this study, I address each of these concepts within a deer population in Bath County, Virginia, that has presumably been in overall decline since the early 1990's. From June-September, 2019-2020, I monitored survival and cause specific mortality of 57 neonate white-tailed deer until 12 weeks of age. Fawn and adult female survival was 0.310 (95% CI = 0.210-0.475) and 0.871 (95%CI=0.790-0.961) respectively. During the study, I observed a total of 37 fawn mortalities and identified the cause of death using field evidence and through analyzing genetics from residual predator salvia recovered on deer carcasses. Mortalities included 28 predation events and 9 deaths from other causes (e.g., abandonment, malnutrition, or disease). Black bears accounted for 48.6% of all mortality and 64.2% of known predations within our study. My top model identified elevation as a significant predictor of fawn survival, with mortality risk increasing 20% for every 100m increase in elevation. My model using observed vital rates predicted an increasing population of λ = 1.10 (interquartile range, IQR 1.06-1.14). The population was predicted to increase by 2% with a 10% increase in doe harvest (λ = 1.02, IQR = 0.97-1.06) but declined by 7% at 20% harvest (λ = 0.93, IQR = 0.89-0.96). I found that fawning home ranges of females that successfully reared fawns to the end of the season had significantly larger home ranges than those that were unsuccessful at higher elevations. Fawning home ranges for females with fawns increased approximately 71ha in size for every 100m increase in mean home range elevation, whereas seasonal home ranges of females without fawns decreased approximately 1.5 ha for every 100m increase in mean home range elevation. Deer selected fawn-rearing areas nearer to forested edges, open habitats, and at higher elevations, while they avoided areas near disturbed and mature forests. Within the fawn rearing area, females selected locations closer to disturbed forest, open habitats, and forested edge, while avoiding mature forest habitats, and higher elevations. Females selected birth sites with higher levels of visual obstruction. Using a step-selection method for real-time resource selection across biological seasons, we found that female deer selected for open areas during the fawning, breeding, early gestational, and late gestational seasons. During the fall breeding season, females avoided forested edge, but selected for areas at higher elevations. During early gestational seasons females selected disturbed habitats and areas at higher elevations while again avoiding forested edge. Overall, my work highlights variations in population dynamics of white-tailed deer in areas of the Central Appalachian Mountains that are primarily characterized by poor habitat quality and provides novel insights into fine-scale spatial ecology of female deer across biological seasons within the region. Ultimately, while the deer population in our study was not predicted to be in decline, this work supports predation risk as being a significant factor associated with habitat quality. / Doctor of Philosophy / White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are a game species with extensive ecological and economic impacts across most of their range. In the central Appalachian Mountains, many populations across the region vary in terms of herd size growth, stability, or decline. These fluctuations are important in that they often drive many aspects of population management and regulation, which are dependent on the status of herd demographics. Some key population vital rates that aid us in better understanding these changes in white-tailed deer herds are survival and cause-specific mortality, home-range variation in association with habitat quality and the ability to successfully reproduce, population trends under hypothetical management scenarios, and resource selection of various habitats that are available across the landscape. In this study, I address each of these concepts within a deer population in Bath County, Virginia, which has presumably been in decline since the early 1990's. As expected, fawn survival was lower than previously reported from other study areas of the Central Appalachians Mountains. Predation was the leading cause of fawn mortality, with black bears being responsible for most predation events. Fawn mortality risk was significantly associated with elevation - where fawns at higher elevations were those at greater risk. Surprisingly, the deer population in Bath County was projected to be increasing under current conditions and was also projected to be stable-to-increasing even under some hypothetical scenarios which would negatively impact population growth (i.e., 10% increase in female harvest or 17% reduction in fawn survival). Fawning home ranges of collared females which successfully reared known fawns to the end of the biological season were significantly influenced by elevation; such that females with fawns had home ranges that increased in size with increasing elevation, whereas females without fawns had home ranges which decreased slightly in size with increasing elevation. At birth sites, females selected locations characterized by higher levels of visual obstruction compared to randomly sampled areas. Of the habitat types analyzed, both selection or avoidance of specific habitats varied across both biological season and spatial scale. Ultimately, while I found that some deer populations associated with poor quality habitats in the Central Appalachians may not be in decline, deer were likely influenced greatly by habitat quality – especially pertaining to predation risk – throughout Bath County.

Responses of migratory birds to seasonal climate and long-term environmental changes have been a central theme of avian migration ecology. Atmospheric conditions (e.g., winds and thermals), climate, and land cover and land use (LCLU) are major factors influencing the flights of soaring birds. Soaring American White Pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) (hereafter, AWPEs) migrate between the subtropical Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the temperate Northern Great Plains. American White Pelicans are also economically important piscivorous birds, causing enormous damages to the commercial Channel Catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) aquaculture in the Southeastern US. My studies aimed to evaluate the effects of climate, wind, and LCLU on the geographic range distributions, seasonal movements, and annual survival of AWPEs. I used Bayesian integrated species distribution models to estimate the occupancy probability and space-use intensity of AWPEs at the breeding and non-breeding grounds in 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively, with data from eBird, Breeding Bird Survey, and Christmas Bird Count. Decreases in wind speeds and surface net thermal radiation and increases in waterbodies, wetlands, and non-woody covers enhanced AWPE occupancy at both the breeding and non-breeding grounds. I used 72 GPS-tracked AWPE data to study circannual hourly movement speeds and seasonal home ranges of AWPEs from 2002 to 2012. American White Pelicans had shorter hourly movement distances and smaller seasonal home ranges in the Southern than Northern GOM during winters; however, the difference did not carry over to the shared breeding grounds during summers. Last, I built Bayesian integrated population models to estimate annual survival and population dynamics of AWPEs with mark-resight-recovery data and annual nest counts at Chase Lake, North Dakota, the US from 1960 to 2014. Increases in upward wind velocity during autumn migration enhanced hatch-year AWPE survival. Increased winter precipitation on the non-breeding grounds improved annual survival of yearling and adults. On the other hand, increased precipitation at the breeding grounds reduced annual survival of hatch-year AWPEs. My findings can help develop management plans for mitigating the economic damages of AWPEs by predicting what areas AWPEs may occupy with high abundances in the future changes in climate and LCLU.

<p dir="ltr">Using historic acoustic bat data collected by the Indiana Department of Natural Resources, we constructed Bayesian occupancy models to gain insights into bat communities and populations across Indiana. Through use of informative prior distributions, we addressed two important considerations for bat conservation with our occupancy models: 1) exploring a compensatory community dynamic causing the expansion of evening bat (<i>Nycticeius humeralis</i>) populations in Indiana following the establishment of white-nose syndrome (WNS), and 2) estimating a percent decline of summertime hoary bat (<i>Lasiurus cinereus</i>) populations in Indiana due to wind energy development. We found evidence for a potential compensatory community dynamic in the evening bat system, in which losses of the Indiana bat (<i>Myotis sodalis</i>) and the little brown bat (<i>Myotis lucifugus</i>) due to WNS may be resulting in new realized niche space for evening bats, thereby contributing to a compensatory community dynamic. In our hoary bat system, we found evidence of a regional summertime decline of 8.9% annually since 2012. These findings have important conservation implications considering imperiled nature and conservation priorities for bats in North America. </p>

Einer der ausschlaggebenden Faktoren für das Übertragungspotenzial von Malaria ist die Häufigkeit ihres Überträgers, der Anopheles-Mücke. Da diese Insekten besonders empfindlich auf ihre Umgebung reagieren, wurde in vielen Laborexperimenten das Verhältnis zwischen Umweltfaktoren und Malaria untersucht. In natürlichen Umgebungen ist über diesen Zusammenhang wenig bekannt. Untersuchungsgegenstand dieser Arbeit mit multidisziplinärem Ansatz ist die Beziehung zwischen verschiedenen Umwelteinflüssen und der Häufigkeit von Anopheles-Mücken in natürlicher Umgebung sowie die möglichen diesem Prozess zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen. Zunächst lässt sich anhand von Feldstudien und empirischen dynamischen Modellen eine verzögerte Auswirkung der Umwelt auf die Mückenhäufigkeit feststellen, was wiederum einen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung der Larvenstadien bedeuten könnte. Im Anschluss werden mögliche Hintergründe untersucht mit Hilfe eines kontrollierten Versuchsaufbaus, in dem Anopheles-coluzzii-Larven und Erwachsenentiere auf Umweltbedingungen reagieren. Dabei lässt sich feststellen, dass Temperatur und Besatzdichte vielschichtige Auswirkungen auf Larvenentwicklung und -sterblichkeit haben. Darüber hinaus gibt es Übertragungseffekte auf die Alterung und Fruchtbarkeit der Erwachsenentiere. Abschließend zeigt sich durch die Entwicklung eines vollständigen Modells für den Lebenszyklus von Anopheles-Mücken, dass die ermittelten Umwelteinflüsse auf Larven und erwachsene Mücken einen komplexen Einfluss auf die Größe der Mückenpopulation haben. Anhand mehrere mathematischer Methoden werden in dieser Arbeit Informationen aus Feldsammlungen und Versuchsdaten erfolgreich kombiniert. Dies unterstreicht die Bedeutung multidisziplinärer Ansätze für das Verständnis der komplexen Dynamik zwischen Mücken und der Umwelt. So entsteht ein detailliertes Bild der Lebensmerkmale der Mücken, die von der Umwelt beeinflusst werden, und deren Auswirkungen auf die Populationsdynamik. / One of the main determinants of malaria transmission is the abundance of its vector, the Anopheles mosquito. As these insects are susceptible to the environment in which they live, many laboratory experiments have explored the connection between environmental factors and the abundance of mosquitoes. However, little is known about this relationship in natural settings. In this work, I used a multidisciplinary approach to determine the relationship between environmental drivers and Anopheles abundance and the possible mechanisms that characterise these relationships. First, using field study data and an empirical dynamic modelling approach, I identified a delayed effect of the environment on mosquito abundance, suggesting an impact on the development of larval stages. Second, I explored the possible mechanisms behind this process using a controlled experimental setup in which Anopheles coluzzii larvae and adults responded to the environmental conditions. I identified a complex response to temperature and rearing density of larval development and mortality, as well as carry-over effects on adult ageing and fecundity. Finally, by developing a full model for the life cycle of Anopheles mosquitoes, I determined that the identified environmental impacts on larvae and adult mosquitoes have a complex impact on the mosquito population size. Taken together, this work combined the information from field collections and experimental data successfully using multiple mathematical methods, highlighting the importance of multidisciplinary approaches in understanding the complex dynamics between mosquitoes and the environment. With this approach, we obtained a detailed picture of the mosquito life traits that are impacted by the environment and its effects on mosquito population dynamics.

It is evident that Ethiopia is one of the countries of Africa that is experiencing significant population growth as well as land use/cover dynamics. Land use/cover induced degradation of natural resources is a major challenge to the country’s development. The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact population dynamics has had on land use/cover in Mandura district. Data on population over time were taken from the CSA during the 1984, 1994 and 2007 national census results. A total of 210 farm households from three kebeles: 105 from the local people and 105 from migrants were surveyed in May 2011 to acquire data on socioeconomic, land use, resource use and management. Aerial photographs of 1957, 1982 and SPOT-5 image of the 2006/07 were used to generate data on land use/cover changes. The results indicate that population has substantially increased, more than fourfold between 1957-2006/07, mainly due to migration from the surrounding areas, government sponsored resettlements, and flourishing of new urban centers. No less important is mortality has decreased due to immunization and the birth rate has been increasing due to improved maternal and child care as compared to the situation prior to the 1990s. The change on land use/cover show that from the total land use/cover conversions, which totals 58,403 ha of land, farm land constitutes 90.1 %. The study finds natural population increase, migration, urbanization, agricultural extensification, institutional weakness, land tenure insecurity, famine and drought, and poverty as root causes. The study further identifies existence of all weather road, resettlement, Tana-Beles project, expansion of agriculture, land colonization, wood extraction for fuel, and soil fertility decline as direct causes of land use/cover changes. As a result of change of customary land tenure system, the local population has been forced to engage in extractive economic activities that have never been practiced in the past. Therefore, the study calls for coordinated efforts for resources use and management at different levels, land use policy formulation, devising alternative sources of livelihoods and fuel, regulating migration and involvement of the wider community in policy formulation and implementations. / Geography / D. LITT. et. Phil. (Geography)

The northern Norwegian killer whale (Orcinus orca) is an important predator but little is known about its population dynamics, particular in response to changes in its main prey, the highly dynamic Norwegian spring spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus). The main aims of this thesis were to estimate killer whale population parameters, to explore the future viability of the population, and to explore the response of this predator to changes in distribution and abundance of its main prey over the last 25 years. Population size was estimated as ~ 700 individuals, taking heterogeneity of capture probabilities into account and correcting for unmarked animals. Apparent survival rates of 0.974 (SE = 0.006) for adult males and 0.984 (SE = 0.006) for adult females were estimated accounting for temporary emigration, transience and trap-dependency. Temporary emigration was greater for males than females. Calving intervals ranged from 3 to 14 years (mean = 5.06); equivalent to 0.197 calves per mature female per year. Future viability of the killer whale population was evaluated under various plausible scenarios. The baseline scenario using the best available information predicted a viable population and indicated that the population may be increasing size. Analysis of data on naval sonar activity, killer whale sightings and herring abundance showed that naval sonar activity appeared to have a negative effect on killer whale presence during a period of low prey availability. A time lag of four years was found between the first sign of NSS herring changing its distribution and reduced killer whale presence inside the fjord system. Analysis of energy budgets showed that killer whales spent more time travelling/foraging in 2005/06 than the 1990s. The fjord system was inferred to be a preferred habitat for killer whales when there was a higher density of NSS herring in this area compared to offshore area.

Traditionally, differential-equation models for population dynamics have considered organisms as "fixed" entities in terms of their behaviour and characteristics. However, there have been many observations of adaptivity in organisms, both at the level of behaviour and as an evolutionary change of traits, in response to the environmental conditions. Taking such adaptiveness into account alters the qualitative dynamics of traditional models and is an important factor to be included, for example, when developing reliable model predictions under changing environmental conditions. In this thesis, we consider piecewise-smooth and smooth dynamical systems to represent adaptive change in a 1 predator-2 prey system. First, we derive a novel piecewise-smooth dynamical system for a predator switching between its preferred and alternative prey type in response to prey abundance. We consider a linear ecological trade-off and discover a novel bifurcation as we change the slope of the trade-off. Second, we reformulate the piecewise-smooth system as two novel 1 predator-2 prey smooth dynamical systems. As opposed to the piecewise-smooth system that includes a discontinuity in the vector fields and assumes that a predator switches its feeding strategy instantaneously, we relax this assumption in these systems and consider continuous change in a predator trait. We use plankton as our reference organism because they serve as an important model system. We compare the model simulations with data from Lake Constance on the German-Swiss-Austrian border and suggest possible mechanistic explanations for cycles in plankton concentrations in spring.

Natural flow regimes are critical for sustaining biodiversity and river integrity. Floods and droughts form an important component of river systems and control population sizes and species diversity across space and time. Modification of flow regimes, including disruption of the timing, magnitude and duration of flooding, is a global problem, and many new impoundments are planned for large river-floodplain ecosystems in the tropics. Flow modifications may cause dramatic non-linear responses in population sizes and have lasting effects through time, but such topics are poorly investigated over multi-year scales, especially in highly diverse tropical ecosystems. Using a long-term dataset from the Upper Paraná River floodplain, Brazil, I tested for threshold and legacy effects of fish assemblages to flood attributes, such as timing, magnitude, duration, rate of change and variation. Specifically, I hypothesized that long duration, high magnitude floods would elicit threshold responses in long-distance migratory fish species and these responses result in significant legacy effects detectable over multiple years. Consistent positive threshold responses to increasing flood duration and magnitude were detected for many species and not significantly correlated with reproductive guilds. Legacy effects were prevalent (i.e. identified for more than 90% of species) and including flood attributes from previous years increased variance explained in species abundances by 15-20% compared to contemporary flood attributes alone. Contrary to my hypotheses, flood duration did not elicit strong legacy effects and species from the same reproductive guild did not have similar legacy effects models. The prevalence of legacy effects across almost all species in this diverse study system highlights the need to consider such dynamics in other systems. My results provide targets for management and conservation actions, such as environmental flow releases from upstream reservoirs. Environmental flows releases may play a significant role in sustainability of the floodplain and other tropical floodplain ecosystems affected by impoundments.