O objetivo desta tese é explicar a redução nas taxas de sequestros políticos na Colômbia nos últimos anos a partir da análise do comportamento estratégico dos criminosos. Pontos de vista convencionais explicam a diminuição dos sequestros como o resultado exitoso da política de segurança democrática do presidente Álvaro Uribe Vélez. No entanto, até agora, tem sido desconsiderada a busca de explicações alternativas à já existente, que bem poderiam ser encontradas a partir da perspectiva de análise dos dilemas organizacionais produzidos pelos sequestros nas FARC – Forças Armadas Revolucionárias da Colômbia –, da sua interação estratégica com o governo e, em particular, de seus efeitos sobre sua atividade global e na decisão de pôr fim a essa ação criminosa. O interesse dos três ensaios que compõem esta tese é estudar as motivações deste grupo rebelde, sob o enfoque da teoria da agência, dividindo sua estrutura organizativa entre líderes (principal), que tomam as decisões estratégicas, e os combatentes (agentes), que as realizam, em um contexto de informação assimétrica, para tomar decisões racionais. Cada ensaio desenvolve a partir de diferentes perspectivas, mas tendo como base o enfoque racional de principal-agente, as razões que levaram a organização a renunciar a uma de suas atividades criminosas, considerada no princípio como uma ação estratégica eficiente que obrigaria o governo colombiano a negociar. O primeiro ensaio está focado em mostrar os custos de transação que gerou essa estratégia para os agentes e o principal. Esta análise faz uso dos mesmos instrumentos analíticos empregados para analisar os custos de qualquer transação econômica que leva a cabo uma organização legal. Mostrando que os custos dessa atividade foram altos, expressados, primeiro, em um conflito de interesses entre o líder, encarregado de esquematizar e designar tarefas, e os agentes, responsáveis por sua execução. A divergência entre estas duas partes teve origem em uma mudança nas expectativas dos agentes, que preferiam mais atividades de combate às relacionadas com o sequestro, em um contexto de perseguição constante do exército colombiano. O segundo ensaio estuda como essa mesma estratégia afetou o contexto no qual os agentes definem suas preferências. Através do uso de três enfoques diferentes da teoria econômica se expõem três interpretações diversas da mudança nas preferências dos agentes: a) uma mudança no risco; b) uma divergência entre as preferências subjacentes e induzidas; c) a presença de dimensões motivacionalmente salientes. E o terceiro ensaio apresenta um modelo formal para estabelecer um sistema de compensações eficiente que o principal oferece ao agente para atenuar o que sobre seu comportamento gerou o sequestro. Os resultados mostram que, considerando que os recursos das organizações armadas ilegais são escassos, quanto maiores são os incentivos oferecidos aos agentes para evitar que desertem, menor é a capacidade da organização para penalizar os desertores e menor a utilidade do principal. Simulando o modelo para um conjunto específico de parâmetros se conclui que a incorporação do mecanismo de autocumprimento (self-enforcing) dentro da função de utilidade do principal aumenta seus custos e propicia o baixo esforço do agente e seu comportamento oportunista. / The objective of this thesis is to explain the reduction in the rate of political kidnapping in Colombia in recent years by means of analyzing the strategic behavior of its perpetrators. This is the basic question addressed in this thesis. Conventional views interpret the fall in the kidnapping rate as an outcome of President Álvaro Uribe’s democratic security policy. I will argue, however, that this is not the whole story, since political kidnapping led Farc [for its acronym in Spanish, Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia] into an unprecedented strategic situation that induced a breach between leader (principal) and combatant (agent) concerns with strong effects on its overall activity and its decision to stop that criminal action. The focus of three essays making up this thesis is on studying FARC’s motivations from the perspective of agency theory, by splitting its organizational structure into principals and agents who are acting on a setting of asymmetrical information. Each essay develops, from different perspectives, the reasons that led the organization to give up that criminal activity due to the substantial political and organizational risks involved. The first essay is focused on the transactions costs generated by the kidnapping strategy both for agents and principals. This analysis is based on the same theoretical tools used to study the costs held by any legal organization. I found that the costs of kidnapping were high, expressed first in a conflict of interest between the leader –responsible for designing and assigning tasks—and the agents in charge of its implementation. The divergence was due to a shift in the expectations of agents who preferred combat activities over the menial tasks associated with kidnapping, in a context of heavy pressure by the Colombian Army. In contradistinction to legal organizations in which such type of divergence can be solved, in part, by paying higher wages to agents in order to extract their best effort, this alternative is not feasible for FARC, for those who joined the organization are supposed to have an ideological and political commitment. The second essay studies how the kidnapping strategy affected the preferences of agents and their behavior by means of using three different approaches from economic theory: (a) a change in risk, (b) a divergence between underlying and induced preferences and, (c) the presence of salient motivational dimensions. The third essay examines, through a principal-agent model, the nature of the trade-off between incentives and enforcing mechanisms that the leadership of an Armed illegal organization offers to its agents. Using a MATLAB’s optimization tool-box, I computed the optimal transfer system for a given parameterization of the model, and analyzed its properties. The numerical analysis shows that the inclusion of a self-enforcing mechanism on the leader’s objective function increases the costs for the principal and could lead agents to choose low efforts and engage in opportunistic behavior.

A presente pesquisa tem como foco o ensino dos números racionais no Ensino Fundamental. Seu objetivo é analisar as potencialidades e proposta de ensino que utiliza o computador, em particular do so fltiwmaitraeç dõee sg edoem uemtriaa dinâmica GeoGebra, e a metodologia de aulas de matemática investigativa. Essa proposta de ensino foi aplicada em turmas de 8º ano do Ensino Fundamental de uma escola pública, localizada na cidade de Sapucaia do Sul/RS. Esses estudantes já traziam conhecimentos sobre números racionais e, diante disso, esse campo numérico foi retomado com a intenção de verificar e contornar possíveis déficits de aprendizagem, assim como de ampliar o conhecimento sobre esses números por meio de investigações em que pudessem ser observadas algumas de suas características. Para isso, propusemos atividades que articulavam simultaneamente diferentes representações dos números racionais. A metodologia de pesquisa empregada foi a qualitativa. A proposta de ensino apresentada no final deste texto como alternativa de trabalho para o ensino de números racionais, e para professores, diante da análise realizada, poderem refletir acerca de suas vpiostueanicsi adliod asdoefstw ea rliem GitaeçoõGese.b Drao, sq ruees uflatavdooresc oebratimdo sa,o pso daelumnooss dae sctoamcaprr eoesn rseãcou rdsooss números racionais e suas regularidades, e o cenário investigativo-tecnológico, que fez com que eles se mantivessem engajados na investigação como agentes de seu aprendizado. / This research focuses on the teaching of rational numbers in Elementary School. It's aim is to analyse The potentialities and limitations of a teaching approach which proposes the use of the computer, particularly the dynamic geometry software GeoGebra, and the methodology of investigative math classes. This teaching approach was applied to students of the 8th year of an Elementary Education public school located at Sapucaia do Sul/RS, Brazil. These students already studied rational numbers at school in previous years. Thus this numerical field has been taken into account with the intention to check and bypass possible learning deficits, as well as increase knowledge of these numbers through investigations in which it could be observed some your characteristics. For this purpose, we proposed activities that simultaneously articulated different representations of rational numbers. The research is based in a qualitative paradigm. The teaching approach is presented at the end of this text as an alternative way for teaching rational numbers and other teachers in view of the analysis can consider its potentialities and limitations. From the results, we can highlight the visuals of the GeoGebra software, which favored students the understanding of rational numbers and their regularities and the investigative - technological scenario, which caused them to remain engaged in research as their learning agents.

Abstarct Analysis of the Therapy in Patients with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Author: Martina Procházková Tutor: PharmDr. Josef Malý, Ph.D. Department of Social and Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy in Hradec Králové, Charles University Introduction and aims: Methotrexate (MTX) is an effective and safe drug used for the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and is well-known like a golden standart in the treatment of this serious illness. The aim of this study was analysis of therapy in patients with JIA focusing on MTX and faktors affecting its intolerance. Methods: The study was undertaken from January 2017 to February 2018 at the Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University in Prague. Patients younger than 18 years old, who have become ill with JIA for the first time or repeatedly between years 2015-2017 and were treated by MTX were included in this study. The prevalence of MTX intolerance was measured by "Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score" questionaire every 3 months during regular rheumatological examinations. Simultaneously, medical records were reviewed. Data analysis was performed by means of descriptive statistics, correlation dependence and statistical signifikance of dependence was assessed with statistical two-choice...

A great amount of available information over the internet makes it impossible for anyone to process it all. In this thesis, we use the rational inattention theory to see how the perceived signals about the exogenous variables would change under different levels of information capacity. Those signals are then applied in the New Keynesian model and corresponding impulse responses are compared with the case of unlimited attention. We found that for some autoregressive processes the differences from the perfect attention case are not very profound while for others the results vary considerably.

This study examined the potential moderating effects that the fear of falling may have on potential white-collar crime perpetrators using rational choice and differential association theory perspectives. A self-report, factorial survey measurement tool utilizing three hypothetical vignettes placing respondents in a business situation with the potential to commit insider trading was given to 612 students at a Midwestern university. Results indicate that the fear of falling had no moderating effects, differential association theory was partially supported in Vignette 1, and rational choice theory was partially supported across all three vignettes.

xi, 87 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / The behavior of the macroeconomy and monetary policy is heavily influenced by expectations. Recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model. One common way to alter expectation formation involves agents' use of econometrics to form forecasting equations. Agents update their forecasts based on new information that arises as the economy progresses through time. In this way agents "learn" about the economy. Previous learning literature mostly focuses on agents using a fixed data size or increasing the amount of data they use. My research explores how agents might endogenously change the amount of data they use to update their forecast equations. My first chapter explores how an established endogenous learning algorithm, proposed by Marcet and Nicolini, may influence monetary policy decisions. Under rational expectations (RE) determinacy serves as the main criterion for favoring a model or monetary policy rule. A determinant model need not result in stability under an alternative expectation formation process called learning. Researchers appeal to stability under learning as a criterion for monetary policy rule selection. This chapter provides a cautionary tale for policy makers and reinforces the importance of the role of expectations. Simulations appear stable for a prolonged interval of time but may suddenly deviate from the RE solution. This exotic behavior exhibits significantly higher volatility relative to RE yet over long simulations remains true to the RE equilibrium. In the second chapter I address the effectiveness of endogenous gain learning algorithms in the presence of occasional structural breaks. Marcet and Nicolini's algorithm relies on agents reacting to forecast errors. I propose an alternative, which relies on agents using statistical information. The third chapter uses standard macroeconomic data to find out whether a model that has non-rational expectations can outperform RE. I answer this question affirmatively and explore what learning means to the economy. In addition, I conduct a Monte Carlo exercise to investigate whether a simple learning model does, empirically, imbed an RE model. While theoretically a very small constant gain implies RE, empirically learning creates bias in coefficient estimates. / Committee in charge: George Evans, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Shankha Chakraborty, Member, Economics; Sergio Koreisha, Outside Member, Decision Sciences

ABREU, Inah Maria de. Alocação negociada da água no Ceará: proposta metodológica para a tomada de decisão em cenário de escassez. 2015. 130 f. : Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Ceará, Pró-Reitoria de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação, Programa de Pós-Graduação em desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente - PRODEMA, Fortaleza-CE, 2015 / Submitted by Nádja Goes (nmoraissoares@gmail.com) on 2016-05-13T13:53:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_tese_imabreu.pdf: 3888437 bytes, checksum: c66f55c4ab0e937111d999dacc9cb084 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Nádja Goes (nmoraissoares@gmail.com) on 2016-05-13T13:53:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_tese_imabreu.pdf: 3888437 bytes, checksum: c66f55c4ab0e937111d999dacc9cb084 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-13T13:53:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_tese_imabreu.pdf: 3888437 bytes, checksum: c66f55c4ab0e937111d999dacc9cb084 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / The water, especially for being a common use, with reduced current availability in the world, makes your allocation a social dilemma that requires decisions and make your rational management essential. This thesis arises from the interest in developing the proposition, with involvement of social agents of the participatory management of water resources of the State of Ceará-Brazil. The methodology is compartmentalized into three steps: secondary data collection; the primary indicators, which it intends to obtain empirical data, on the basis of: participation in meetings of negotiated allocation of water, in the application of questionnaires, interviews and cooperative games with members of social arena and conducting social experiment; Finally, the treatment of information and indications that integrates, correlates, and analyzes the information and guides collected in Office and field. The consultation, through application of the questionnaires, together with members of the 12 (twelve) committees of the catchment area of the State of Ceará pointed as a result to guarantee future of use of water stored in a reservoir, in times of scarcity, as the primary motivation that encourages taking rational attitudes on water use. The results of the application of cooperative games bring out the existence of factors that interfere in the decision-making of the members of the watershed committees. Based on the data collected and interviews conducted, devised the "cognitive Map added" where were identified the strategies that make up the path to the meeting of attributes that can be negotiated for the allocation of water. Also indicated result of social experiment conducted in river basin Committee, where he obtained the members that sustainable exploitation of water resources by the water users sectors, is essential criterion for establishing order of preference in the use of water in situations of scarcity. The criterion inventoried, so associated with the results of the consultation and of the cognitive mapping of the river basin committees, is in line with the proposal for allocation of water, composed essentially of two strategies: first, social participation based on the planning steps for the preparation of the scenarios of reservoir systems operation, therefore, with emphasis on dialogue and involvement of society , and the other, directed to the application between users of the irrigation sector. Finally, one of the suggestions gathered was suggested the insertion of cooperative games tied to the process of formation and training in water resources management for members of the CBHs, as required and improved their dialogue, respect and trust among the social sectors involved. / A água, sobretudo por ser um bem de uso comum, com reduzida disponibilidade atual no mundo, torna a sua alocação um dilema social que exige decisões e tornam seu gerenciamento racional absolutamente imprescindível. Esta tese surge do interesse em desenvolver proposição, com envolvimento dos agentes sociais da gestão participativa dos recursos hídricos do Estado do Ceará - Brasil. A metodologia se encontra compartimentada em três etapas: de coleta de dados secundários; a dos indicadores primários, que se propõe obter dados empíricos, com base: na participação em reuniões de alocação negociada da água, na aplicação de questionários, entrevistas e jogos cooperativos com membros de arena social e realização de experimento social; por fim, a fase de tratamento de informações e indicativos que integra, correlaciona e analisa as informações e os guias coletados em gabinete e campo. A consulta realizada, mediante aplicação dos questionários, junto aos membros integrantes dos 12 (doze) comitês de bacia hidrográfica do Estado do Ceará apontou como resultado a garantia futura de uso da água estocada em reservatório, em período de escassez, como sendo a principal motivação que estimula a tomada de atitudes racionais no uso da água. Os resultados da aplicação de jogos cooperativos trazem à tona a existência de fatores que interferem na tomada de decisão dos integrantes dos comitês de bacia hidrográficas. Com base no conjunto de dados levantados e das entrevistas realizadas, elaborou-se o “Mapa cognitivo agregado”, onde foram identificadas as estratégias que formam o caminho para o encontro de atributos passíveis de serem negociados para a alocação da água. Também se indicou resultado de experimento social realizado em comitê de bacia hidrográfica, onde se obteve dos membros integrantes a afirmação de que a exploração sustentável dos recursos hídricos, por parte dos setores usuários da água, é critério essencial para estabelecimento de ordem de preferência no uso das águas em situação de escassez. O critério inventariado, portanto, associado aos resultados da consulta realizada e do mapeamento cognitivo dos membros de comitês de bacia hidrográfica, se encontra em consonância com a proposta de alocação de água que, composta essencialmente por duas estratégias: a primeira, com suporte na participação social nas etapas de planejamento para elaboração dos cenários de operação dos sistemas de reservatórios, portanto, com ênfase no diálogo e no envolvimento da sociedade, e a outra, direcionada à aplicação entre usuários do setor da irrigação. Por fim, dentre as sugestões reunidas foi sugerida a inserção de jogos cooperativos atrelados ao processo de formação e capacitações em gestão dos recursos hídricos para os membros dos CBHs, como sendo necessários e passiveis de aperfeiçoar o diálogo, respeito e confiança entre os setores sociais envolvidos.

As decisões racionais ou intuitivas delimitam a vida das pessoas, gerando boas ou más consequências. São as decisões que geram oportunidades, desafios e incertezas. Até pouco tempo, a teoria gerencial era embasada nas premissas, de que, por critérios de racionalidade poderíamos dominar a vida e o destino das empresas. No entanto, em virtude de limitações envolvidas no processo decisório, como falta de tempo, excesso de informações, mudanças constantes e instabilidade tanto econômica quanto política, fizeram com que métodos suportados pela racionalidade, busquem apoio em conhecimentos gerados pela experiência acumulada pelo indivíduo. Esta dissertação visa abordar a tomada de decisão dos empreendedores, juntando aspectos da administração e da psicologia. Primeiramente uma abordagem da evolução do pensamento sobre a tomada de decisão é repassada, com conceitos que dão conta da racionalidade limitada e também de que o nível de incerteza e a complexidade inerente às decisões aumentaram. Após evidências teóricas mostrando como a intuição influencia a tomada de decisão, esperasse demonstrar como os empreendedores entrevistados utilizam a intuição para a tomada de decisões. Através de estudo de caso com oito empreendedores, foi possível apresentar aspectos que influenciam o comportamento dos empreendedores no exercício do processo decisório, demonstrando que suas decisões nem sempre seguem um processo racional descrito na literatura, mas respaldam-se muitas vezes em formas intuitivas e criativas que dependem muito mais de sua experiência e de sua percepção sobre oportunidades ou ameaças que propriamente uma planilha estatística. Como resultado, verificou-se que a intuição tem papel importante na formação da solução percebida pelos empreendedores, e como outros autores já colocaram, há uma grande dificuldade em colocar todos os elementos que compõem a tomada de decisão nos processos decisórios, fazendo com que o empreendedor recorra em muitas decisões, a fontes mais informais, como é o caso da intuição, que respondendo ao objetivo principal desta dissertação, constatou-se que possivelmente a experiência e a intuição sejam os elementos que mais auxiliam a tomada de decisão, principalmente na primeira e na terceira geração, conforme será demonstrado nesta dissertação. / Intuitive and rational decisions put a limit on people’s lives, resulting in good and bad consequences. The decisions generate opportunities, challenges and uncertainties. Until recently, management theory was grounded in assumptions that, by rational criteria we could dominate life and companies’ fate. However, due to limitations involved in the decision-making process, such as lack of time, information overload, constant changes and instability both economic and political made methods supported by rationality, seek support in knowledge generated by the accumulated individual experience. This work seeks to address the entrepreneurs’ decision-making, combining aspects of management and psychology. First of all an approach to thought evolving on the decision-making is checked on through concepts that take into account bounded rationality and also that the level of uncertainty and the inherent complexity of decisions increased. After theoretical evidences showing how the intuition influences the decision making-process, it is expected to demonstrate how interviewed entrepreneurs use intuition to make decisions. Through a case study with eight entrepreneurs, it was possible to present aspects that influence entrepreneurs’ behavior in the exercise of decision-making by demonstrating that their decisions do not always follow a rational process described in the literature, but often they are supported in intuitive and creative ways, which rely more heavily on their experience and their perception of opportunities or threats, than in a exactly statistical spreadsheet. As a result, it was found that intuition plays an important role in forming the solution perceived by entrepreneurs, and as others have already put, there is great difficulty in putting all the elements that make up the decision-making into decision-making processes, making the entrepreneur refers, in many decisions, the more informal sources, such as the intuition case, that responding to the main objective of this abstract , it was found that perhaps the experience and intuition are the factors that most help the decision making, especially in the first and in the third generations, as will be shown in this work.

This thesis was prepared on the basis of the investigation, which took place at the elementary school in Horažďovice Blatenská during year 2010/2011 and dealt with the issue of student nutrition in the age categories 10-13 years and 13-15 years. Purpose of the study was aimed at monitoring the menus in order to determine nutrient intake of energy, monitored minerals and vitamins according to the recommendations for that age group. The survey was made by nutritional test for the evaluation of children's eating habits at school age. At the end there were verified two test hypotheses. The results of menu analysis were compared with those needs and showed the following. Energy intake was adequate in girls (in the tolerance of one percent of the RDA), boys' levels of energy intake from lunch order of 4-5 % lower, but there is possibility to add a side dish. The level of performance ranged from 30.3 % to 36.1 % RDA. Proteins were met over the limit and have lunch in the day needs of virtually reached in the category 10-13 years old category, and this level to 90 % RDA. Lipid, carbohydrates and fiber intake was adequate. Values of calcium intake were found to be inadequate and proper value of the months did not exceed 21.4 % of RDA. Year-round abundance was observed in vitamin B6, where the lowest values observed in the months of September and January at 100 % RDA. Excess was found at the annual intake of vitamin B12, where the lowest values were found in November at the level of 130 % RDA. Based on statistical surveys, hypothesis has not been demonstrated that regular breakfast is an effective prevention of overweight and obesity in children in this age category. The proportion of time spent passively is not dependent on age. Furthermore, there was found 21 % the relationship between children?s diet and reducing diet of any family member. It is therefore apparent effect on the child's family eating habits.

This thesis investigates the use of a reconceptualised social evolutionary theory for understanding and explaining how and why societies change, specifically looking at this question through the frame of nationalism. The thesis is split into three parts: in the first part I first examine older forms of social evolutionary theory (conceptions from Marx, Spencer and generalized evolutionary accounts) and critique them on the grounds that they are too ‘progressive’ in character, suffer from teleology and have a notion that all societies change linearly, i.e. pass through the same set of stages. After this I elaborate on a reconstructed version of social evolutionary theory, taking it along more Darwinian lines: that the process should be understood as contingent and non-linear, where cultural variants and social intuitions change in response to selective pressures brought about by environmental conditions. To reconstruct social evolution I draw mainly on accounts from Runciman (2009), Hodgson and Knudsen (2010), Sperber (1996), Hull (1988) and Richerson and Boyd (2006). In the second part of the thesis I look at four different theories of social change and utilize Darwinian social evolutionary theory to critique them. The four in question are: Immanuel Wallerstein (world-systems theory); Michael Hechter (rational-choice theory); Michael Mann (sources of social power); and Ernest Gellner (functionalism). These four theories were chosen as they either have, or represent, different theories of social change, and also because they are all concerned to some extent with the rise of the nation-state and nationalism. The main argument in this section is that Darwinian social evolutionary theory can incorporate elements of these theories whilst also going beyond them in explaining and understanding why societies undergo changes. In the case of Mann and Gellner I also note that they are, to a certain extent, implicitly relying on a social evolutionary account, and that drawing this out more explicitly helps provide greater theoretical solidity to their arguments. In the final part of the thesis I apply the theory to two case-studies, looking at the rise of nationalism in Britain (with a focus on England) and Japan. In both cases I examine each development of nationalism historically, using Darwinian social evolution to assess why nationalism emerged at the point that it did in each case, and not before. A final synthesis chapter then looks comparatively at the two cases and applies Darwinian social evolutionary theory to address the question of why nationalism generated in England/Britain, but did not in Japan and why the nationalist movements took the forms that they did. The chapter centres on three main themes, the role of war in forming identities, the role of variation in generating institutions, and the role of lineages in creating continuity in discontinuity. Finally it address the question of why nationalism became the dominant movement and not something else. Together this demonstrates demonstrate the usefulness of the framework for addressing questions concerning social change, in providing a different perspective and insights from other theories of social change. A final chapter summarizes and concludes the thesis, as well as pointing to new directions that research could develop.