This thesis examines the impact of the real exchange rate on the amount of revenues from a system of tolled and time tolled roads in the Czech Republic in the years 1999-2014. This effect is investigated on monthly data using regression analysis on two systems of tolled roads separately, system of tolled roads and system of time-tolled roads. Based on available dataset was shown a statistically significant negative effect of the real exchange rate on toll revenues in the system of tolled roads. In the case of time-tolled roads system was demonstrated negative effect of real exchange rate on time-toll revenues, but this effect is questionable, since the influence has been demonstrated only in a model with limited explanatory power.

Este trabajo de investigación examina el impacto de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real, como proxy de la incertidumbre cambiaria, en el desempeño de las exportaciones totales para un panel de países de América Latina en el periodo 1989-2018. Se utilizan las variables como brecha de las exportaciones, brecha del tipo de cambio real, brecha del producto bruto interno, la brecha de la demanda mundial y la brecha de los término de intercambio. Asimismo, se estima el comportamiento de la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real modelizándola a través de modelos GARCH. Se estima un modelo panel de Vectores Autorregresivos para una muestra equilibrada de cinco países de América Latina (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México y Perú) para el periodo 1989-2018. Los resultados sugieren que la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real tiene un efecto negativo en las exportaciones de los países seleccionados. Adicionalmente, esta investigación es relevante porque proporciona evidencia empírica de países con diferentes características económicas para comprender el efecto de las variaciones del tipo de cambio real en el desempeño de las exportaciones y, por ende, en la estabilidad del crecimiento económico. / This research work examines the impact of real exchange rate volatility, as a proxy for exchange rate uncertainty, on the performance of total exports for a panel of Latin American countries in the period 1989-2018. Variables such as the export gap, the real exchange rate gap, the gross domestic product gap, the world demand gap, and the trade terms gap are used. Likewise, the behavior of the volatility of the real exchange rate is estimated by modeling it through GARCH models. A panel model of Autoregressive Vectors is estimated for a balanced sample of five Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru) for the period 1989-2018. The results suggest that the volatility of the real exchange rate has a negative effect on the exports of the selected countries. Additionally, this research is relevant because it provides empirical evidence from countries with different economic characteristics to understand the effect of variations in the real exchange rate on export performance and, therefore, on the stability of economic growth. / Trabajo de investigación

Les changements majeurs intervenus dans le commerce international correspondant à la participation importante des pays émergents au marché mondial remettent en cause la perception traditionnelle du commerce. Au lieu de se spécialiser dans la production pour laquelle ils disposent d’un avantage comparatif, les pays en développement considèrent la diversification des exportations comme un moyen alternatif d’améliorer la croissance économique et de réduire les chocs négatifs externes. Par ailleurs, la crise financière mondiale de 2008 soulève l’examen de la relation entre le taux de change réel (TCR) et le commerce international. Dans une telle perspective, cette thèse tente d’étudier dans un premier temps le lien de causalité entre la diversification des exportations et le TCR dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire. Tout d’abord, nous trouvons une causalité bidirectionnelle entre nos deux variables d’intérêt. En décomposant leurs exportations par destination, le même lien bidirectionnel est enregistré dans le cas du commerce Sud-Nord, tandis que la causalité unidirectionnelle allant du TCR vers la diversification des exportations est marquée dans le commerce Sud-Sud.Deuxièmement, nous comparons cette relation entre deux groupes de pays, l’Asie vs. l’Amérique latine et l’effet de deux crises financières (en 1997 et 2008) sur ce lien. Nous montrons que, sans considération des crises financières, il existe une causalité bidirectionnelle pour les pays d’Amérique latine et la relation conventionnelle allant du TCR vers la diversification des exportations pour les pays asiatiques.Toutefois, en tenant en compte des crises financières, la causalité bidirectionnelle est fondée dans les deux sous-groupes.Troisièmement, nous abordons la question de l’effet de la diversification des exportations sur l’élasticité-prix des importations en comparant deux modèles d’intégration dans la région de l’Asie-Pacifique: les États-Unis avec le modèle d’intégration traditionnel, la Chine avec un modèle singulier d’intégration Sud-Sud. De manière générale, nous trouvons que l’élasticité-prix est négative pour les importations en provenance de la Chine et positive dans le cas des États-Unis. Lorsque leurs partenaires commerciaux réussissent à diversifier leurs destinations à l’exportation, les élasticités-prix des importations s’affaiblissent. Ces résultats questionnent la condition de Marshall-Lerner. Quatrièmement, pour étudier comment un pays pourrait diversifier ses exportations, nous examinons si un choc de change peut être un facteur promouvant la productivité des entreprises. En utilisant la méthode des différences de différences sur les données au niveau des firmes pour les secteurs industriels vietnamiens, nous avons découvert un effet positif d’une appréciation persistante du dong vietnamien sur la productivité des entreprises. Nous confirmons que la recherche et le développement (R&D) pourrait expliquer le mécanisme par lequel une appréciation améliore la productivité des entreprises. / Major changes in international trade related to the crucial participation of emerging countries inworld markets have been challenging the traditional perception of trade. Instead of only specializing inthe products in which they have a comparative advantage, developing countries consider export diversificationas an alternative way to improve economic growth and reduce external adverse shocks. Besides,the global financial crisis in 2008 raised the need for an examination of the relationship between realexchange rate (RER) and trade.In this line, this thesis attempts to investigate the causal link between export diversification andRER in the middle-income countries. Firstly, we find a bidirectional causality between our two variablesof interest. By differentiating the countries’ exports by destination, the same bidirectional link isrecorded in the case of South-North trade, while a unidirectional causality running from RER to exportdiversification is recorded in the South-South trade.Secondly, we compare this relationship between two groups of countries, Asia versus Latin America,and the effect of the two financial crises (in 1997 and 2008) on this link. We show that, regardlessof the financial crises, the bidirectional causality exists for the Latin American countries and the conventionallink from RER to export diversification for Asian countries. However, when accounted forfinancial crises, the bidirectional causality is found in both subgroups.Thirdly, we address the question of the effect of export diversification on price elasticity of importsin two models of integration in the Pacific-Rim, that is: the traditional model (the US) and a new modelof integration (China). We find consistent negative price elasticity of imports for China and a positive onein the case of the US. When their trading partners are successful in diversifying their export destinations,import price elasticity of either China or the US becomes very low. This result challenges our awarenessof the Marshall-Lerner condition.Fourthly, to investigate how a country could diversify her exports, we look at real exchange rateshocks as a factor that may promote firm productivity. Using the difference-in-differences methodologyon firm-level data for Vietnamese manufacturing, we find a positive effect of a persistent real appreciationin the Vietnamese dong on firm productivity. We note that research and development (R&D) could explainthe mechanism by which real appreciation improves firm productivity.

This study examines the indirect linkages between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in South Africa utilising 36 years’ (1980-2016) time series data obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). South Africa’s economy has been experiencing unsteadiness in recent years. Despite the government’s execution of different strategic initiatives to draw in FDI into South Africa, the country’s FDI remains lower than that of other emerging economies. Domestic investment by government, public corporations and the private sector is also relatively unsteady. Slow economic growth has put tremendous weight on the government to borrow externally for developmental purposes. This study tests two models – model I and model II. In model I, real GDP per capita (RGDP) is the dependent variable and foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (DI), real exchange rate (EXR) and foreign debt (FD) are modelled as explanatory variables while in model II, FDI is the dependent variable and RGDP, DI, EXR and FD are modelled as explanatory variables. Domestic investment is sub-divided into credit to the domestic private sector (CPS), public investment (PI) by public corporations and government investment expenditure (GOVIN). The analysis of the relationship was carried out using econometric methods such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to identify the order of integration of the variables. The bounds cointegration test was applied to establish the long-term association among variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was utilised to test the long-run and short-run equilibrium conditions. Diagnostic tests were employed to check the model adequacy and the Granger causality tests were utilised to establish the causal relationships among variables. The discoveries from the ADF and PP tests uncovered that all the variables are non-stationary at level but became stationary at first differences. The bounds tests suggest that there is a long-run relationship and cointegration between variables. Following the presence of cointegration, the outcomes from ARDL model uncovered that FDI, CPS and GOVIN have a positive relationship with RGDP in the long run (crowding-in effect), while, a negative relationship occurs between PI, FD, EXR and RGDP in the long run (crowding-out effect) in model I. In model II, the outcomes revealed that RGDP, CPS, and PI have a positive relationship with FDI in the long run (crowding-in effect). Then again, the outcomes presented a negative connection between GOVIN, FD and v © Pamba, D, University of South Africa 2020 EXR to FDI in the long run (crowding-out effect). The short-run estimate of the coefficient of the error correction term (ECM) in model I and model II are statistically significant and negative. The negative indication of the error correction term shows a backward movement towards long-run equilibrium from short-run disequilibrium. In model I, the short-run coefficient results uncovered that FDI, lagged PI and lagged EXR are positively linked with RGDP (crowding-in effect). Then again, lagged CPS and lagged GOVIN are inversely related to RGDP (crowding-out effect). In model II, the short-run coefficient of FDI is certainly related to GOVIN (crowding-in effect). FDI, on the other hand, indicated a negative relationship with PI in the short run (crowding-out effect). The Granger causality tests for the variables uncovered a unidirectional causal connection running from RGDP to FDI and from FDI to RGDP in both models. The outcomes obtained for RGDP and FDI models pass all the diagnostic tests on serial correlation, normality and heteroscedasticity. The test for adequacy performed on the residuals demonstrates that they are homoscedastic and have no serial correlation, signifying that the model is acceptable. The Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) tests show that the extracted models are structurally steady and remain within the 5 percent level of critical bounds. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Dans cette thèse, nous proposons quatre contributions originales à l'étude de l'intégration monétaire et financière des pays asiatiques.Dans le premier chapitre nous déterminons la sensibilité relative des devises asiatiques (ASEAN-5, Corée du Sud) face aux chocs simulés sur le dollar, l'euro et l'ACU. Nous mettons en évidence la volonté de ces pays de se détourner d'une politique de change exclusivement centrée sur le dollar vers une politique plus flexible, où le poids de l'ACU semble avoir gagné en importance.Le deuxième chapitre met l'accent sur la synchronisation entre les cycles des affaires de l'ASEAN-5. Nous montrons que la corrélation entre les cycles est plus forte durant les phases de contraction mais que la dynamique d'ajustement est propre à chaque pays. Par ailleurs, certains cycles des affaires de l'ASEAN-5 contiennent des informations pertinentes pour prédire les changements de régime des autres pays.Le troisième chapitre examine le co-mouvement entre les taux de change réels de l'ASEAN-5 du point de vue de la parité de pouvoir d'achat généralisé (Enders and Hurns, 1994, 1997). Nous montrons que les taux de change réels sont liés par un processus à mémoire longue, ce qui soutient l'idée d'une intégration monétaire plus poussée entre différents sous-groupes de pays. Enfin dans le dernier chapitre, nous examinons le degré d'intégration des marchés boursiers en Asie (ASEAN-5, Hong Kong, Japon). Nos résultats montrent que la volatilité des marchés boursiers internationaux partagent une tendance stochastique commune. En revanche, les marchés boursiers des pays émergents apparaissent encore segmentés tant au niveau global que régional. / This thesis proposes four contributions to the study of Asian monetary and financial integration.The first chapter examines to what extent the East Asian exchange rates (ASEAN-5, South Korea) are sensitive to shocks simulated on the US dollar, the euro and the ACU. We show that these countries have moved from a US dollar-based pegging system to a more flexible exchange rate policy, where the weight of the ACU has increased over the last years. The second chapter attempts to analyze the correlation among the ASEAN-5 business cycles. Estimates reveal that correlations are higher during downturns but the process of adjustment to shocks displays idiosyncratic features. We also provide evidence that the signals contained in some leading ASEAN-5 business cycles help predict regime switching in other countries. The third chapter examines the co-movement among the ASEAN-5 real exchange rates through the generalized purchasing power parity (Enders and Hurns, 1994, 1997). We find that real exchange rates are tied through a long memory process, supporting further monetary integration among different sub-groups of the ASEAN-5.In the last chapter, we investigate to what extent the stock markets in Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, ASEAN-5) are integrated. Our results reveal that the stock market volatilities in developed countries share a common stochastic trend. Conversely, emerging markets appear to be segmented from both each other and global markets.

Cette thèse de doctorat étudie les effets des envois de fonds issus des migrations sur le développement des pays d’origine des migrants et compare ces effets avec ceux de l’aide publique au développement. Dans une première partie, nous étudions les effets des envois de fonds des migrants sur le développement des pays récipiendaires. Il apparaît que les envois de fonds réduisent les inégalités intra-Pays dans les pays relativement plus riches, dont les coûts d’émigration sont faibles et dont la part des émigrés qualifiés est peu importante (Chapitre 1). L’effet sur la croissance économique en Afrique sub-Saharienne est également non-Linéaire et dépend positivement du développement financier et institutionnel des pays récipiendaires (Chapitre 2). Enfin, les envois de fonds ont un effet d’appréciation sur le taux de change réel dans les pays CFA, mais cet effet est non significatif pour les pays à régime de change flexible (Chapitre 3). Dans une seconde partie nous nous intéressons au caractère stabilisateur des transferts des migrants. Le Chapitre 4 montre, au niveau microéconomique, que les envois de fonds ont joué un rôle d’assurance lors de la dernière crise financière et que ce rôle a été d’autant plus important que les migrants n’ont pas été sévèrement touchés par la crise et que les liens conservés avec le pays d’origine étaient forts. Le Chapitre 5 montre à partir d’une approche pays par pays que les transferts sont contra-Cycliques dans une minorité de cas, mais qu’en moyenne, ils répondent négativement au revenu des pays d’origine. Les résultats du Chapitre 6 indiquent que les transferts atténuent l’effet négatif des chocs commerciaux sur la pauvreté. Dans une troisième et dernière partie nous comparons les envois de fonds { l’aide publique au développement. Alors que l’aide permet d’atténuer l’effet négatif de l’instabilité des exportations sur la croissance, les transferts des migrants permettent d’amoindrir l’effet négatif de l’instabilité des exportations sur la pauvreté (Chapitre 7). Enfin, les envois de fonds diminuent la dépendance des pays { l’aide publique au développement lorsque ces flux de capitaux sont investis plutôt que consommés (Chapitre 8). / This dissertation examines the effects of migrant remittances on the development of origin countries and compares these effects with those of official development aid. In a first part we investigate the effects of remittances on the development of recipient countries. Results suggest that remittances reduce within inequality in countries more developed, where migration cost are lower and the share of skilled migrants less important (Chapter 1). Their impact on growth in sub-Saharan Africa is also non-Linear and depends positively on the financial and institutional development of recipient economies (Chapter 2). Finally, remittances have a real exchange appreciation effect in CFA countries, but not in countries with a flexible exchange rate regime (Chapter 3). In a second part we focus on the stabilizing impact of remittances. Chapter 4 shows, at the microeconomic level, that remittances have played an insurance role during the last financial crisis and that this role was all the more acute that migrants have not strongly suffered from the crisis and that family links were strong. Chapter 5 suggests in a country-By-Country approach that remittances are pro-Cyclical in a higher number of cases, while on average, they respond negatively to the home country income. Chapter 6 findings show that remittances dampen the harmful impact of trade instability on poverty. In a third part, we compare migrant remittances with public aid. While public aid mitigates the harmful impact of export instability on output growth, migrant remittances dampen the harmful effect of export instability on poverty (Chapter 7). Finally, migrant remittances reduce aid dependency in countries where remittances are invested rather than consumed (Chapter 8).

This dissertation is a collection of essays on challenges in international trade and international finance, which apply econometric methods to diverse data sets and relate them to economic policy questions. In times of crises, the question, whether individual countries have the ability to pursue idiosyncratic monetary policy, is important. The degree of integration and comovement between financial markets, for instance, is critical to better assess the real threat facing a country in a crisis. Also, from a macroeconomic modeling perspective, there has recently been a renewed interest in the cyclical and long-run comovement of interest rates. Hence, in a first essay, we reinvestigate the long- and short-run comovements in the G7-countries by conducting tests for cointegration, common serial correlation and codependence with nominal and real interest rates. Overall, we only find little evidence of comovements: common trends are occasionally observed, but the majority of interest rates are not cointegrated. Although some evidence for codependence of higher order can be found in the pre-Euro area sample, common cycles appear to exist only in rare cases. We argue that some earlier, more positive findings in the literature are difficult to reconcile due to differing assumptions about the underlying stochastic properties of interest rates. Hence, we conclude that they cannot be generalized for all interest rates, time periods, and reasonable alternative estimation procedures. This finding indicates that scope for individual countries to pursue stabilization policy does still exist in a globalized world. Emerging economies, in general, are much more exposed and vulnerable to crises than industrialized countries. Accordingly, stabilization policy is especially important in these countries and the selection of the best monetary regime is essential. This is why, in a second essay, we contrast two different views in the debate on official dollarization: the Mundell (1961) framework of optimum currency areas and a model on boom-bust cycles by Schneider and Tornell (2004), who take account of credit market imperfections prevalent in middle income countries. We highlight the strikingly different role of the exchange rate in the two models. While in the Mundell framework the exchange rate is expected to smooth the business cycle, the second model predicts the exchange rate to play an amplifying role. We empirically evaluate both models for eight highly dollarized Central American economies. We document the existence of credit market imperfections and find that shocks from the exchange rate indeed amplify business cycles in these countries. Using a new method proposed by Cubadda (1999 and 2007), we furthermore test for cyclical comovement and reject the hypothesis that the selected countries form an optimum currency area with the United States according to the Mundell definition. In the context of the recent global crisis, globalization and vertical integration in particular were often blamed for being the cause for the severe trade crisis. For that reason, in the essay that contributes to the trade literature, we analyze the role of international supply chains in explaining the long-run trade elasticity and its short-term volatility in the context of the recent trade collapse. We adopt an empirical strategy based on two steps: first, stylized facts on long- and short-term trade elasticity are derived from exploratory analysis and formal modeling on a large and diversified sample of countries. Then, we derive observations of interrelated input-output matrices for a demonstrative sub-set of countries. We find evidence for two supply chain related factors to explain the overshooting of trade elasticity during the 2008-2009 trade collapse: the composition and the bullwhip effect. However, evidence for a magnification effect could not be found. Overall, we do not accept the hypothesis that international supply chains explain all by themselves the changes in trade-income elasticity.