Performance-based planning and programming has increased in popularity for transit project funding in recent years. This methodology focuses on quantitative performance measures to inform decision making. For transit projects, projections or observed ridership is the most commonly used performance measure to evaluate project benefits. Conventional wisdom within the transit industry suggests that measuring the performance of a transit project immediately after project opening may not capture all the project’s benefits, since it takes time for a project to realize its short-term ridership potential, a process commonly referred to as ridership ramp-up. While this idea is both intuitive and appealing, especially for projects that seem to be underperforming in their initial years, there is a need for empirical analysis to determine the typical magnitude and extent of ridership ramp up in order to better account for ramp-up in ridership forecasting and transit project evaluation. The purpose of this study is to meet this need by evaluating variations in ridership in the initial years after project opening for 55 fixed-guideway rail transit projects in the United States. I applied a fixed-effects regression model to predict one-year increases in ridership in each of the first five years after project opening, controlling for variation in gas prices, population, income, and unemployment. I find that ridership on new rail transit projects increases on average six percent controlling for other factors between the opening year and the first year after project opening. These findings can support decisions about how to account for ridership ramp up in forecasting and performance evaluation for rail transit projects.

<div> <p>Public transportation is vital for many people who do not have the means to use other forms of transportation. In small communities, transit service is often limited, due to funding constraints of the transit agency. In order to maximize the use of available funding resources, agencies strive to provide effective and efficient service that meets the needs of as many people as possible. To do this, effective service planning is critical.</p> <p> </p> <p>Unlike traditional road-based transportation projects, transit service modifications can be implemented over the span of just a few weeks. In planning for these short-term changes, the traditional four-step transportation planning process is often inadequate. Yet, the characteristics of small communities and the resources available to them limit the applicability of existing transit demand models, which are generally intended for larger cities.</p> <p> </p> <p>This research proposes a methodology for using population and demographic data from the Census Bureau, combined with stop-level ridership data from the transit agency, to develop models for forecasting transit ridership generated by a given geographic area with known population and socioeconomic characteristics. The product of this research is a methodology that can be applied to develop ridership models for transit agencies in small cities. To demonstrate the methodology, the thesis built ridership models using data from Lafayette, Indiana.</p> <p> </p> <p>A total of four (4) ridership models are developed, giving a transit agency the choice to select a model, based on available data and desired predictive power. More complex models are expected to provide greater predictive power, but also require more time and data to implement. Simpler models may be adequate where data availability is a challenge. Finally, examples are provided to aid in applying the models to various situations. Aggregation levels of the American Community Survey (ACS) data provided some challenge in developing accurate models, however, the developed models are still expected to provide useful information, particularly in situations where local knowledge is limited, or where additional information is unavailable.</p> </div> <br>

The major transit systems operating in San Francisco are San Francisco Municipal (MUNI), Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), and Caltrain. The system of interest for this paper is MUNI, in particular the bus and light rail systems. During the past decade transit ridership in the area has experienced diverging growth, with bus ridership declining while rail ridership is growing significantly (Erhardt et al. 2017). Our data show that between 2009 and 2016, MUNI rail ridership increases from 146,000 to 171,400, while MUNI bus ridership decreases from 520,000 to 450,000. Direct ridership models (DRMs) are used to determine what factors are influencing MUNI light rail and bus ridership. The DRMs predict ridership fairly well, within 10% of the observed change. However, the assumption of no multi-collinearity is voided. Variables, such as employment and housing density, are found to be collinear. Fixed-effects panel models are used to combat the multi-collinearity issue. Fixed-effects panel models assign an intercept to every stop, so that any spatial correlation is removed. A transportation network company, Uber and Lyft, variable is introduced (TNC) to the panel models, to quantify the effect they have on MUNI bus and light rail ridership. The addition of a TNC variable and elimination of multi-collinearity helps the panel models predict ridership better than the daily and time-of-day DRMs, both within 5% of the observed change. TNCs are found to complement MUNI light rail and compete with MUNI buses. TNCs contributed to a 7% growth in light rail ridership and a 10% decline in bus ridership. These findings suggest that the relationship TNCs have with transit is complex and that the modes cannot be lumped together.

Real-time information that informs transit riders about transit schedules, next bus or train arrivals, and service alerts, is becoming increasingly available, particularly through internet-enabled smartphone applications. However, the extent of communication technology usage amongst transit riders, specifically their access to mobile applications and alternative technologies that can provide real-time information, is largely unknown. Without this information, transit agencies are risking investing in an alternative technology that may not sufficiently supply real-time information to as many as possible riders. The purpose of this study is to identify the differences in individual technology accessibility and prioritize investing in real-time information application development that mirrors the unique characteristics of transit riders. This recognition and development will allow a wider availability of real-time information amongst transit riders. Paired with an investigation of cellular phone usage among transit riders and the general American population, an analysis of Saint Louis Metro’s Onboard Survey was performed. Cross tabulations and chi-squared tests were conducted to examine riders’ communication technology usage. Binary logit models were used to understand how, and whether, the ownership of smartphone applications is dependent on various demographic factors. These analyses identified specific demographic groups that would benefit from supplemental technology methods more conducive to their particular information accessibility. Results showed that communication technology usage has risen substantially in recent years but a portion of riders are still without access to smartphone applications. Specific demographic groups (e.g., riders over 40 years of age) were less likely to own smartphones, and these results indicate that computer-based websites and IVR are the best supplementary alternatives for those groups.

Public transport is essential for both residents and city planners because of its environmentally and economically beneficial characteristics. During the past decade climatechange, coupled with fuel and energy crises have attracted significant attention toward public transportation. Increasing the demand for public transport on the one hand and its complexity on the other hand have made the optimum network design quite challenging for city planners. The ridership is affected by numerous variables and features like space and time. These fluctuations, coupled with inherent uncertaintiesdue to different travel behaviors, make this procedure challenging. Any demand and supply mismatching can result in great user dissatisfaction and waste of energy on the horizon. During the past years, due to recent technologies in recording and storing data and advances in data analysis techniques, finding patterns, and predicting ridership based on historical data have improved significantly. This study aims to develop forecasting models by regressing boardings toward population, time of day, month, and station. Using the available boarding dataset for blue bus line number 4 in Stockholm, Sweden, seven different machine learning algorithms were assessed for prediction: Multiple Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Bayesian Ridge Regression, Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbors. The models were trained and tested on the dataset from 2012 to 2019, before the start of the pandemic. The best model, KNN, with an average R-squared of 0.65 in 10-fold cross-validation was accepted as the best model. This model is then used to predict reduced ridership during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The results showed a reduction of 48.93% in 2020 and 82.24% in 2021 for the studied bus line.

摘要 此論文主旨在研究大型營造等工程計劃包括公私合併基建工程之計劃融資的架構，及其計劃融資方法的成長趨向。 計劃融資為一創新及有時效性的融資技術。有別於傳統基建工程的融資方法，因此愈來愈多在採用。此研究主要是集中於計劃融資的益處，風險管理及保險要求。 由於全球的私有化現象，政府的資助計劃，有移轉至私人融資計劃的趨向。本金現在往往以計劃的資產作為抵押，而以計劃的收入基礎以返還之。因此計劃的收益為大型投資計劃的主要融資因素。計劃的完工時程往往加之於計劃融資團體及業主的合約內，因此保障股東權益使延遲完工保險的需求大增。 延遲完工保險又名預期利潤損失險，為以保障業主的收益以償還債務及實現利益而設計。在開發市場中為減免利益風險，以收益保證保險方式以填補預期收益與實際收益間的差異。此論文亦以討論常用於大型計劃的計劃融資方式的兩種保險產品，延遲完工保險及收益保證保險及其核保的挑戰性，理賠處理的特性。 以瞭解延遲完工保險的理賠複雜性，以一個興建、營運及移轉（BOT）的鐵路工程項目的理賠個案作為例子討論。並以訪談保險業界的專家為主以討論相關論點。除延遲完工保險外，乘客量保證保險亦作介紹其保障預期及實際乘客量差異所引起的收益短缺的運作方式。 / This thesis aims to study the framework of project finance and the growing trend for project financing methods in today’s large construction projects involving public-private infrastructure partnerships. Project financing is an innovative and timely financing technique that is increasingly emerging as the preferred alternative to conventional methods of financing infrastructure and other large-scale projects worldwide. Research is conducted on the benefits, risk management and insurance requirements of project finance. Due to global privatization where government funding programs have shifted towards private financing, principals now often collateralize loans with project assets and repay them purely on the basis of projected earnings. Thus, the revenue generating capability of a project has become a critical financing factor in large investment projects. Rigorous conditions on delays in scheduled project completion added to project contracts between financiers and principals and the need to protect shareholders’ interests have created demand for DSU insurance. DSU insurance, also known as advance loss of profits (ALOP) insurance, is designed to secure the portion of revenue which the principal requires to service debt and realize anticipated profit. To mitigate revenue risk in emerging markets, public-private partnership provides a revenue guarantee to protect for the insured’s financial loss due to shortfall between actual and projected revenue. The ‘pledged’ revenues may include sales revenue, rental, interest income, and other sources of funds that are generally recurring. The thesis further discusses two types of insurance commonly applied in project financing of large projects – the delay in start-up (DSU) insurance and revenue guarantee insurance. The features, underwriting challenges and claim handling of these two types of insurance will be investigated. In order to understand the complexity in claims handling involving DSU cover, a build-operate-transfer (BOT) railway construction project claim case study is created. Interviews are conducted with three selected experts from the insurance industry on the various issues related to DSU claim. The findings gathered from these experts are reported in this thesis. In addition to the DSU insurance, a ridership guarantee is also introduced for protecting the revenue shortfall between the actual and forecast ridership when project is put into commercial operations.

This study aimed at examining the social and economic effects of the Rea Vaya Bus Rapid Transit system (BRT) on various stakeholders in Johannesburg. The objective of the study was to investigate the effect the Rea Vaya has had on users and non-users of the Rea Vaya system. The findings of this study suggest that the Rea Vaya is beneficial in that it provides an option in modes of transport for commuters, particularly for people who were historically disadvantaged and were not permitted to reside in the city during the apartheid era. BRT systems are designed to provide a safe, reliable and accessible public transport system. The Rea Vaya system is aimed at providing better public transport, reducing congestion, on public roads, improving the roads and creating jobs. The findings have shown that the Rea Vaya has not been successful in meeting all its aims. The Rea Vaya has not managed to provide an accessible transport system thus far. Traffic in the inner city has not been reduced as a modal shift has not yet occurred. Since the inception of the Rea Vaya system there has been resistance from the Taxi Industry. Despite negotiations and attempts made by the Municipality of the City of Johannesburg to include the Taxi Industry in the Rea Vaya system, by making them shareholders of the system, the findings presented affirms that there is still resentment and resistance from the Taxi Industry towards the Rea Vaya system. The loss of revenue since the introduction of the Rea Vaya has caused a challenge for Taxi owners. Not only is it alleged that the Rea Vaya has affected the Taxi Industry, but the Rea Vaya infrastructure has caused a number of problems for private car users in the City. Private car users are inconvenienced by the designated bus lanes and lack of road signage in the city. These conclusions affirm that the Rea Vaya is not beneficial to all stakeholders in the City of Johannesburg. The experiences and opinions of users and non-users suggest that the system has a number of deficiencies. However some users of the system have benefited socially and economically. For some of the users the Rea Vaya has created a few opportunities; however the poor customer service from bus drivers and station staff was seen as a setback. Transit Orientated development in Johannesburg has not yet taken off. The government’s attempts to create mixed land use through the implementation of corridors of freedom are in its infant stages. Businesses across the Rea Vaya station found the Rea Vaya to have both positive and negative effects on their businesses. Some businesses found that the development of stations have added aesthetic value, however due to the frequency of Rea Vaya buses at stations, commuters would not wait for long periods of time and this resulted in fewer customers for businesses across the Rea Vaya station. The Rea Vaya system has provided a safe and reliable transport system in Johannesburg. However, the system is in its infant stages and has a number of deficiencies as presented in the findings of this study. / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)

This study aimed at examining the social and economic effects of the Rea Vaya Bus Rapid Transit system (BRT) on various stakeholders in Johannesburg. The objective of the study was to investigate the effect the Rea Vaya has had on users and non-users of the Rea Vaya system. The findings of this study suggest that the Rea Vaya is beneficial in that it provides an option in modes of transport for commuters, particularly for people who were historically disadvantaged and were not permitted to reside in the city during the apartheid era. BRT systems are designed to provide a safe, reliable and accessible public transport system. The Rea Vaya system is aimed at providing better public transport, reducing congestion, on public roads, improving the roads and creating jobs. The findings have shown that the Rea Vaya has not been successful in meeting all its aims. The Rea Vaya has not managed to provide an accessible transport system thus far. Traffic in the inner city has not been reduced as a modal shift has not yet occurred. Since the inception of the Rea Vaya system there has been resistance from the Taxi Industry. Despite negotiations and attempts made by the Municipality of the City of Johannesburg to include the Taxi Industry in the Rea Vaya system, by making them shareholders of the system, the findings presented affirms that there is still resentment and resistance from the Taxi Industry towards the Rea Vaya system. The loss of revenue since the introduction of the Rea Vaya has caused a challenge for Taxi owners. Not only is it alleged that the Rea Vaya has affected the Taxi Industry, but the Rea Vaya infrastructure has caused a number of problems for private car users in the City. Private car users are inconvenienced by the designated bus lanes and lack of road signage in the city. These conclusions affirm that the Rea Vaya is not beneficial to all stakeholders in the City of Johannesburg. The experiences and opinions of users and non-users suggest that the system has a number of deficiencies. However some users of the system have benefited socially and economically. For some of the users the Rea Vaya has created a few opportunities; however the poor customer service from bus drivers and station staff was seen as a setback. Transit Orientated development in Johannesburg has not yet taken off. The government’s attempts to create mixed land use through the implementation of corridors of freedom are in its infant stages. Businesses across the Rea Vaya station found the Rea Vaya to have both positive and negative effects on their businesses. Some businesses found that the development of stations have added aesthetic value, however due to the frequency of Rea Vaya buses at stations, commuters would not wait for long periods of time and this resulted in fewer customers for businesses across the Rea Vaya station. The Rea Vaya system has provided a safe and reliable transport system in Johannesburg. However, the system is in its infant stages and has a number of deficiencies as presented in the findings of this study. / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)