As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corporations the authors found it interesting to further explore this area of the credit assessment process as SMEs largely impact the Swedish business sector.   The purpose of the thesis at hand is to explore and provide empirical evidence of which criteria banks assess when evaluating credit risk of SMEs in Sweden. In regards to the purpose the authors have chosen to adapt the perspective of the banking industry throughout the thesis. In order to bridge the research gap the following question was established, “How do banks evaluate credit risk of SMEs in Sweden?” In light of the lack of research regarding qualitative assessment of credit risk, the authors found it interesting in terms of developing new theoretical and practical knowledge to establish the following sub-question, “What are the qualitative criteria used by banks when evaluating credit risk of SMEs in Sweden?” Further, as existing literature mainly focus on large companies the authors found it interesting to compare the findings regarding credit risk evaluation on SMEs to the evaluation process of one of the largest credit rating agencies. As a result the second sub-question was established as following, “Are these criteria similar to the criteria used by Standard & Poor’s in their rating model?” These questions were conducted in order to provide the authors and the reader with further insight regarding the criteria used by banks in their evaluation process.   An inductive approach was adopted, in line with the epistemological stance of interpretivism and the ontological belief of constructivism. With this in mind, the authors of the thesis conducted a qualitative exploratory research employing narrative interviews in order to collect the data needed, as of the lack of existing research to address the research questions.   The results of the research were that the criteria used in the assessment of credit risk tend to alter from advisor to advisor. The most commonly used criteria by the advisors are budget, business plan, customer’s customers, internal and external discipline, financial statements, industry specifics, historical accounts, key individuals, relationship, repayment capacity and the owner/individual. It was discovered that the qualitative criterion of assessing the individual majorly impacts the credit risk evaluation. However, what matters in the end is the overall impression of both qualitative and quantitative measures of the firm.   In regards to sub-question one, the authors established a list of qualitative criteria used by advisors in their credit risk evaluation of SMEs, the most widely used criteria among the advisors are the owner/individual, key individuals, internal discipline, industry specifics, external discipline, customer’s customers, relationship and business plan. In comparison with the criteria used by Standard and Poor’s and the banks, it was evident that the criteria used in the evaluation differed a lot between the two.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:28:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo - parte 1.pdf: 3041213 bytes, checksum: 0f7b215277ef0d17345b19ef1e019a4e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-21 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This objectives of this work were: (i) to statistically characterize turbidity datasets of 44 water treatment plants (WTP), (ii) to evaluate the performance these 44 WTPs in achieving drinking-water turbidity standards, and (iii) to estimate risks of infection associated Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking-water, in case study applied to the University of Viçosa WTP (UFV WTP). The analysis of turbidity databases of raw and treated water of the 44 WTP showed that the hypotheses of data randomness, independence, stationarity and homogeneity were, in general, rejected. With few exceptions, turbidity data of raw and treated water were characterized by positive asymmetry. Raw water data showed the highest coefficients of skewness and kurtosis. Statistical tests confirmed the non-normality of all turbidity datasets analyzed, and indicated that most of them could be described by lognormal distribution. The standard of 0,15 NTU for filtered water was very rarely achieved in most WTP. Although a few WTP showed a high proportion of data with turbidity below 0,30 NTU, the actual percentage of WTP that met this standard was low. In turn, the standard of 0,50 NTU was achieved by half the WTP, often in more than 80% of data, and the 1,0 NTU standard was systematically attained in almost all WTP. Risks were estimated by stochastic modeling (Monte Carlo simulation), using the UFV WTP database, including information on the occurrence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in the source water, and on turbidity removal. Models of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (AQRM) were constructed from these data and from literature information on: (i) dose-response models; (ii) recovery efficiency of the protozoa laboratory methods; (iii) relationships between (oo)cysts removal and turbidity, (ii) drinking-water consumption rates. Different AQRM models resulted in wide variations of risk estimates. Sensitivity analysis showed that the variables with the greatest impact on risk estimates were the (oo)cysts concentration in raw water, (oo)cysts removal by water treatment, and water consumption rates, indicating the need for a careful characterization these variables. / Esse trabalho objetivou: (i) caracterizar estatisticamente bancos de dados de turbidez de 44 estações de tratamento de água (ETAs); (ii) avaliar o atendimento dessas 44 ETAs aos padrões e critérios de turbidez de água tratada; e (iii) estimar riscos de infecção associados aos protozoários Cryptosporidium spp e Giardia spp. em água para consumo humano, em estudo de caso aplicado a ETA da Universidade Federal de Viçosa. A análise de bancos de dados de turbidez da água bruta e tratada (decantada e filtrada) das 44 ETAs, revelou que as hipóteses de aleatoriedade, independência, estacionariedade e homogeneidade dos dados foram, em geral, rejeitadas. Salvo poucas exceções, os dados de turbidez de água bruta e tratada foram caracterizados por assimetria positiva. Os dados referentes à água bruta apresentaram os maiores coeficientes de assimetria e de curtose. Testes estatísticos confirmaram a não normalidade de todas as séries de dados de turbidez analisadas e indicaram que a maioria destas poderia ser descrita por distribuição lognormal. O limite de 0,15 uT na água filtrada foi rarissimamente alcançado na maioria das ETAs avaliadas. Embora algumas ETAs tenham alcançado elevada margem de dados com turbidez abaixo de 0,30 uT, o percentual de ETAs que atendeu este limite foi baixo. Por sua vez, o padrão de 0,50 uT foi atingido por metade das estações com frequência superior a 80% dos dados, e o limite de 1,0 uT foi sistematicamente atendido pela quase totalidade das estações. A estimativa de riscos foi realizada por modelagem estocástica (simulação de Monte Carlo), utilizando o banco de dados da ETA UFV, incluindo informações sobre ocorrência de Cryptosporidium spp. e Giardia spp. na água bruta e remoção de turbidez. Modelos de Avaliação Quantitativa de Risco Microbiológico (AQRM) foram construídos a partir desses dados e informações de literatura sobre: (i) modelos dose-resposta; (ii) taxa de recuperação das técnicas laboratoriais de pesquisa de protozoários, (iii) modelos de estimativa de remoção de (oo)cistos em função da turbidez; (iv) estimativas de consumo de água. Os diferentes arranjos de modelos de AQRM resultaram em amplas variações nas estimativas de risco. Testes de análise de sensibilidade revelaram que as variáveis de maior impacto na estimativa de risco foram a concentração de (oo)cistos na água bruta, a remoção de (oo)cistos no tratamento da água e o consumo de água, indicando a necessidade de caracterização criteriosa dessas variáveis.

he thesis deals with safe operation of ammonia refrigeration technologies on ice pools in the Czech Republic. This thesis focuses on the possibility of evaluation and risk operation management. The thesis starts with a summary of basic factors affecting safe operation on ice pools. This includes also possible ways how to realize the ammonia refrigeration technology including week and strong part of different access. The ice pool are splitted into tree groups based on a precondition for a safe operation. Next, there is done analysis of current legal and directive frame for safe operation of ice pools in the Czech Republic. There are also included a methods for evaluation and simulation of risk for ihabittants. There is named a metod STADION_01 dedicated to evaluate a capability of tested companies to manage operations risk. Practical experience with evaluation are included. The metod stress, that is important to keep long-lasting and pernament safe operation of ammonia refrigeration.

The diploma thesis titled „Risk Management of the Company“ deals with risk management of selected process, analyzing and optimizing risk in purpose to reduce the risk in the company TIZZI KM, spol. s r.o. The first part is focused on explanation of the relevant therms for better understanding. This part describes basic therms and methods of risk management. The second part is focused on the analysis of the current situation and analysis of the risks that have been identified based on the selected proces of the change. The final part is focused on proposed recommendations and measures that will minimize the risks in the company.

Preloading without a surcharge is a common method for ground improvement. Thereare however uncertainties related to the number of site investigations and the partialfactor method has been identified as a problem. This thesis proposes a probabilisticdesign approach, using a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the failure probabilityin the serviceability limit state for preloading without a surcharge. The methodwas applied to a case where the possibility of using preloading without a surchargewas determined. A parameter influence and sensitivity analysis were performed todetermine what parameters were most important for the calculation. Problems withthe generation of random samples for the parameters; preconsolidation pressure andlimit pressure were identified, and four different methods of generating the randomsamples were tested, and discussed.The failure probability was calculated as a function of preloading time which wasused to determine what preloading time is needed to fall below the acceptable failureprobability of 5%. The required preloading time was found to be 580 days. Themost important parameters were found to be preconsolidation pressure, the modulusM0 and the coefficient of vertical consolidation.The proposed method is working and has several advantages, among them are theability to calculate the failure probability and the compatibility with the observationalmethod. The model uncertainty has been discussed, and a general commentis that with more research can the model uncertainty be decreased. Only 1D consolidationis considered in the method, this simplification is very practical as 2D and3D effects often can be neglected.

Background: FDA black box warning, Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS), and CMS national coverage determination (NCD) aim to reduce inappropriate use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) that are widely used in anemic patients. Previous studies have not linked specific safety interventions to changes in ESA utilization patterns in the inpatient settings nor assessed such interventions on off-label use of the drugs. Ineffectiveness of the intervention and lag time between such interventions and the observed change in clinical practice could lead to serious clinical outcomes. In addition, such interventions may unintentionally reduce on-label and some off-label use of ESAs considered “appropriate” in patients who could otherwise benefit. Objectives: The primary aim of the study is to quantify the impacts of the (1) addition of black box warning, (2) implementation of NCD, and (3) institution of REMS on ESA on-label and off-label utilization patterns of adult inpatients. Demographic, clinical condition, physician, and hospital characteristics of ESAs users by their use category are also described in detail. Methods: Electronic health records in Cerner Database from January 1, 2005 to June 30, 2011 were used. The use of the two erythropoietic drugs: epoetin alfa and darbepoetin alfa were categorized into three groups using ICD-9-CM diagnoses and procedures codes and patients’ medication information. The three categories were (1) on-label use (approved by the FDA); (2) off-label use supported (use for the indications not approved by the FDA, but there is strong clinical evidence to support its use); and (3) off-label use unsupported (use for the indications not approved by the FDA and lacking clinical evidence). The immediate and trend impacts of the interventions on the proportion of ESAs prescribed for each usage category between 2005 and 2011 were assessed using an interrupted time series technique. The likelihood of receiving ESAs among patients with on-label, off-label supported, off-label unsupported indications was assessed using a generalized estimating equation approach with binary logistic regression technique, clustering for hospitals and controlling for potential confounders such as patient characteristics, patient clinical conditions, physician specialty, and hospital characteristics. Results: During the study period, there were 111,363 encounters of ESA use. These encounters represented 86,763 patients admitted to Cerner health system between January 1, 2005 and June 30, 2011. Of these patients, 66,121 were prescribed epoetin alfa only (76.2%); 20,088 darbepoetin alfa only (23.2%); and 554 were prescribed both epoetin alfa and darbepoetin alfa (0.6%). Forty-nine percent of the patients used ESAs for the on-label indications, 8.6% for off-label supported indications, and 42.7% for the off-label unsupported indications. The main uses of ESAs in our sample were for CKD (ONS, 41.1%) and chronic anemia (OFU, 31.8%). From 2005 to 2010, the proportion of visits with ESA ONS and OFS use decreased 53.2% and 81.9%, while ESA OFU increased 112.6%. Results from binary logistic regression using GEE model showed overall decreasing trends in ESA use for the on-label and off-label supported indications, but not off-label unsupported indications. REMS had no impact on the odds of receiving ESAs among patients with on-label and off-label conditions. Black box warning reduced the odds of being prescribed with epoetin alfa in patients with off-label unsupported conditions by 40%. It was also associated with 4% and 15% per month reduction in the odds of using darbepoetin alfa in patients with off-label supported and unsupported conditions. Lastly, there was a significant decline in all categories of ESA use the month after Medicare national coverage determination was implemented. The impact of NCD ranged from a 20% reduction in the odds of off-label supported use to a 37% reduction in on-label use. Age, gender, race, source of payment, admission type, clinical complexity, discharge disposition, and hospital size were significant associated with ESA use on-label and off-label. Conclusion: This study was the first to determine the impact of safety interventions on ESA on-label and off-label utilization patterns in the inpatient settings using the Cerner database. We demonstrated lag between the interventions and observed change in clinical practice, and the relative impacts of three types of safety interventions on on-label and off-label ESA use in the hospital settings. The indirect impact of the reimbursement change was the potential unintended consequence of reducing the likelihood of receiving ESAs for a patient with indicated conditions who could have otherwise benefited from the drugs.

<p>Stora volymer förorenade sediment kommer att behöva tas om hand under de kommande åren då bottensediment i svenska farleder, hamn- och kustområden under lång tid har konta–minerats av både tungmetaller och organiska föroreningar. I examensarbetet studeras fyra möjligheter för hantering av förorenade muddermassor. De tre traditionella metoderna är <em>tippning till havs</em>, <em>utfyllnad i vik</em> eller <em>deponering på land</em>. <em>Stabilisering/solidifiering</em> (s/s) är ytterligare ett alternativ som innebär att muddermassorna kan nyttiggöras i geokonstruktioner genom att massornas hållfasthet ökas. Metoden går ut på att muddermassorna blandas med bindemedel och de eventuella föroreningarna binds då in i matrisen genom kemisk reaktion och fysikalisk inneslutning.  Syftet med examensarbetet är att, utifrån ett platsspecifikt perspektiv, undersöka hur föroreningsrisker kan jämföras mellan de fyra olika huvud–alternativen för hantering av muddermassor. Jämförelsen är tänkt att utgöra <em>en del</em> av ett beslutsunderlag som ska ligga till grund för valet av hanteringsalternativ.</p><p>Arbetet har fokuserat på miljöriskanalys och främst på hur risker kan <em>kategoriseras, värderas</em> och <em>jämföras</em>. Metoden inkluderar en litteraturstudie, en undersökning av tillstånds–ansökningar för hamnutbyggnad, en fallstudie där användning av LCA-metodik, ”ekotoxicitetspotential” och Naturvårdsverkets riktvärdesmodell testats för att jämföra föroreningsrisker mellan olika hanteringsalternativ i Oxelösunds hamn. Avslutningsvis genomfördes en serie intervjuer kring temat karaktärisering och jämförelser av risk i en s.k. Stakeholder Opinion Assessment (SOA).</p><p>I studien av tillståndsansökningarna för hamnutbyggnad konstaterades att jämförelser av platsspecifika föroreningsrisker mellan olika hanteringsalternativ för förorenade mudder–massor <em>inte görs.</em> Istället är det andra aspekter, t.ex. ekonomi, som avgör vilket alternativ som väljs. Varken ekotoxicitetspotential eller Naturvårdsverkets riktvärdesmodell visade sig vara lämpliga metoder för att beskriva och jämföra risker i det aktuella fallet. Av intervjuerna i SOA:n framgår att det råder delade meningar om hur risker ska beskrivas och på vilket sätt de kan jämföras och det finns ett stort behov av att utveckla nya sätt att beskriva och jämföra föroreningsrisker mellan olika alternativ och olika platser.</p><p>Arbetet har visat att det finns ett behov av att utveckla miljöriskanalysens avslutande steg, riskkaraktärisering och riskvärdering, eftersom det idag inte finns några konkreta metoder för att jämföra föroreningsrisker mellan olika hanteringsalternativ för förorenade muddermassor. För att förbättra beslutsunderlag föreslås därför en tydligare problemformulering och att övergripande platsspecifika scenarion för de olika alternativen tas fram. Viktigt aspekter att tydliggöra är skyddsobjekt, tidsskala, spridning och exponering. Jämförelsen av platsspecifika föroreningsrisker får inte heller bli allt för detaljerad, eftersom den bara är en del av ett större beslutsunderlag.</p> / <p>Large amounts of contaminated sediment has to be taken care of within the next few years since the sediment in Swedish sea lanes, ports and coastal areas have been contaminated by both heavy metals and organic pollutants over a long time period. Four options for handling contaminated dredged material were studied within this master thesis project. The three traditional methods are dumping the dredged material at sea, filling a bay with dredged material or putting the dredged material on a land disposal. Stabilization/solidification (s/s) is another option, where the contaminated dredged sediments are mixed with a binder that gives them greater strength, while immobilizing contaminants through chemical reactions or physical confinement in the structure. The aim of this thesis is to examine how risks of contamination can be compared between the four main options for management of dredged materials, in a site-specific perspective.</p><p>The main tool in the project has been environmental risk assessment with special focus on how risks can be categorized, measured and compared. The study includes a literature review, an examination of permit applications for port development, a case study where the LCA methodology, "potential eco-toxicity" and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency's guideline value model was tested in order to compare the risks of contamination from the various management options in the port of Oxelösund. Finally a Stakeholder Opinion Assessment (SOA), by the theme risk characterization and risk comparison, was made.</p><p>The study of permit applications for port expansion has shown that the site-specific risks of contamination are not considered when choosing between management options of dredged materials. Instead other aspects, such as economy, determine the option chosen. Neither potential of eco-toxicity or the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency's guideline value model proved to be appropriate methods in order to describe and compare the risks associates with this case. The interviews in the SOA show that people disagree on how risks should be described and compared. There is a demand for new methods of describing and comparing risks associated with different management options for dredged materials at different sites.</p><p>This work has shown that well-known methods on how to compare risks of contamination between the different management options for contaminated dredged materials do not exist. There is also a need of developing the latter steps in the environmental risk assessment. To develop a better decision basis, a more explicit definition of the problem is proposed. It is particularly important to make site-specific descriptions of the various systems to be compared. The comparison of the site-specific risks of contamination should not be too detailed, since it is part of a larger decision support.</p> / Stabcon

Stora volymer förorenade sediment kommer att behöva tas om hand under de kommande åren då bottensediment i svenska farleder, hamn- och kustområden under lång tid har konta–minerats av både tungmetaller och organiska föroreningar. I examensarbetet studeras fyra möjligheter för hantering av förorenade muddermassor. De tre traditionella metoderna är tippning till havs, utfyllnad i vik eller deponering på land. Stabilisering/solidifiering (s/s) är ytterligare ett alternativ som innebär att muddermassorna kan nyttiggöras i geokonstruktioner genom att massornas hållfasthet ökas. Metoden går ut på att muddermassorna blandas med bindemedel och de eventuella föroreningarna binds då in i matrisen genom kemisk reaktion och fysikalisk inneslutning.  Syftet med examensarbetet är att, utifrån ett platsspecifikt perspektiv, undersöka hur föroreningsrisker kan jämföras mellan de fyra olika huvud–alternativen för hantering av muddermassor. Jämförelsen är tänkt att utgöra en del av ett beslutsunderlag som ska ligga till grund för valet av hanteringsalternativ. Arbetet har fokuserat på miljöriskanalys och främst på hur risker kan kategoriseras, värderas och jämföras. Metoden inkluderar en litteraturstudie, en undersökning av tillstånds–ansökningar för hamnutbyggnad, en fallstudie där användning av LCA-metodik, ”ekotoxicitetspotential” och Naturvårdsverkets riktvärdesmodell testats för att jämföra föroreningsrisker mellan olika hanteringsalternativ i Oxelösunds hamn. Avslutningsvis genomfördes en serie intervjuer kring temat karaktärisering och jämförelser av risk i en s.k. Stakeholder Opinion Assessment (SOA). I studien av tillståndsansökningarna för hamnutbyggnad konstaterades att jämförelser av platsspecifika föroreningsrisker mellan olika hanteringsalternativ för förorenade mudder–massor inte görs. Istället är det andra aspekter, t.ex. ekonomi, som avgör vilket alternativ som väljs. Varken ekotoxicitetspotential eller Naturvårdsverkets riktvärdesmodell visade sig vara lämpliga metoder för att beskriva och jämföra risker i det aktuella fallet. Av intervjuerna i SOA:n framgår att det råder delade meningar om hur risker ska beskrivas och på vilket sätt de kan jämföras och det finns ett stort behov av att utveckla nya sätt att beskriva och jämföra föroreningsrisker mellan olika alternativ och olika platser. Arbetet har visat att det finns ett behov av att utveckla miljöriskanalysens avslutande steg, riskkaraktärisering och riskvärdering, eftersom det idag inte finns några konkreta metoder för att jämföra föroreningsrisker mellan olika hanteringsalternativ för förorenade muddermassor. För att förbättra beslutsunderlag föreslås därför en tydligare problemformulering och att övergripande platsspecifika scenarion för de olika alternativen tas fram. Viktigt aspekter att tydliggöra är skyddsobjekt, tidsskala, spridning och exponering. Jämförelsen av platsspecifika föroreningsrisker får inte heller bli allt för detaljerad, eftersom den bara är en del av ett större beslutsunderlag. / Large amounts of contaminated sediment has to be taken care of within the next few years since the sediment in Swedish sea lanes, ports and coastal areas have been contaminated by both heavy metals and organic pollutants over a long time period. Four options for handling contaminated dredged material were studied within this master thesis project. The three traditional methods are dumping the dredged material at sea, filling a bay with dredged material or putting the dredged material on a land disposal. Stabilization/solidification (s/s) is another option, where the contaminated dredged sediments are mixed with a binder that gives them greater strength, while immobilizing contaminants through chemical reactions or physical confinement in the structure. The aim of this thesis is to examine how risks of contamination can be compared between the four main options for management of dredged materials, in a site-specific perspective. The main tool in the project has been environmental risk assessment with special focus on how risks can be categorized, measured and compared. The study includes a literature review, an examination of permit applications for port development, a case study where the LCA methodology, "potential eco-toxicity" and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency's guideline value model was tested in order to compare the risks of contamination from the various management options in the port of Oxelösund. Finally a Stakeholder Opinion Assessment (SOA), by the theme risk characterization and risk comparison, was made. The study of permit applications for port expansion has shown that the site-specific risks of contamination are not considered when choosing between management options of dredged materials. Instead other aspects, such as economy, determine the option chosen. Neither potential of eco-toxicity or the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency's guideline value model proved to be appropriate methods in order to describe and compare the risks associates with this case. The interviews in the SOA show that people disagree on how risks should be described and compared. There is a demand for new methods of describing and comparing risks associated with different management options for dredged materials at different sites. This work has shown that well-known methods on how to compare risks of contamination between the different management options for contaminated dredged materials do not exist. There is also a need of developing the latter steps in the environmental risk assessment. To develop a better decision basis, a more explicit definition of the problem is proposed. It is particularly important to make site-specific descriptions of the various systems to be compared. The comparison of the site-specific risks of contamination should not be too detailed, since it is part of a larger decision support. / Stabcon

Dopo una delle peggiori crisi economica e finanziaria mondiale , gli studi sulla previsione delle insolvenze sono diventato uno degli argomenti più dibattuti tra gli studiosi e ricercatori. Al fine di soddisfare le esigenze sia di valutazione interna sia degli investitori professionali , lo studio riscopre il modello "Z - score" di Altman nella sua forma originale , nota per la sua semplicità. Il modello, ancora largamente utilizzato nei mercati statunitensi, è per sua natura poco utilizzato nell’analisi di società europee. La tesi analizza e descrive le caratteristiche dello Z -score, valutandone i risultati come strumento per la previsione di insolvenza nel mercato europeo. Lo studio è condotto su 568 società , prese dagli indici azionari di 7 mercati europei , tra il 2000 e il 2010 . I risultati del test evidenziano una grande variabilità di risultato tra i diversi settori industriali. Il modello risulta semplice ed efficace, ma sostanzialmente incapace di prevedere il rischio di default in Europa, se utilizzato nella sua forma originale . La seconda parte della ricerca studia pertanto come i risultati del modello possano essere valutati da una nuova prospettiva per i mercati europei, concentrandosi su singoli settori industriali. Lo Z score viene testato su un campione di imprese in buona salute ed un altro di aziende insolventi, per 3 gruppi industriali diversi. La ricerca cerca anche di valutare elementi qualitativi accanto a quelli quantitativi, al fine di analizzare in maniera completa il rischio di insolvenza. / After one of the worst world economic and financial crisis, the insolvency prediction has become one of the most debatable topics among scholars. In order to satisfy both the professional investors’ needs and the internal evaluation process, the Thesis rediscovers the original Altman “Z-score” model, known for its convenience. This model is still largely used in the US equity markets but, also for its origin, has hardly been applied to the European equity index. The Thesis investigates and describes the operating characteristics of Altman’s Z-score, evaluating its performance as a tool for insolvency prediction in today's European market. The base model capability is tested examining 568 companies, listed in the main stock indexes of 7 European markets, between 2000 and 2010. A large variability among different industries arises from the analysis conducted. The Thesis results prove that the model is user-friendly but a substantial inability to predict the risk of default in Europe if used in its original form. The second research question try to analyse how could the model be useful for the European markets, testing the Z score over good heath and insolvent firms from 3 industrial groups. The research studies how the model’s results could be evaluated from a new perspective, focusing on individual industrial sectors results. The research also tries to evaluate qualitative elements alongside the quantitative ones, in order to give a harmonized and comprehensive estimation of the insolvency risk.

The risk of serious accident is increasing with the rise of the amount of chemical industry manufacturing. This accident can have immeasurable consequences. The aim of this thesis is to point out the consequences caused by leakage of dangerous substance of petrol from the biggest cistern in chemical company Synthos Kralupy a.s. and to suggest steps for emergency clearance. To fulfil the aim, examination of serious accident risks had to be carried out first. The method of Dow's Fire and Explosion Index was used for this examination which enabled evaluation of a real fire and explosion risk. Apart from these methods, another method called IAEA-TECDOC-727 was also used. Consequently, possible scenarios of dangerous substances leakage from storage cistern were created. These were simulated through software programmes ALOHA and TerEx. Acquired results were then well arranged in charts. During the research of this issue, a method of controlled interviews was used. These interviews with employees of firefighter emergency service were focused on emergency readiness of the chemical company Synthos Kralupy a.s. A cistern containing dangerous substance represents a crucial risk, even though the results showed that the accident of all petrol leakage from the cistern is very unlikely. However, this accident should not be neglected because a dangerous cloud reaching 565 m from the site of the accident would occurred. The dangerous cloud cause mortality of 70% within a distance of 2,000 m and a distance of 4,970 m to the 1 st degree burns. If all petrol leaked from the cistern, the consequences would be much bigger than just pollution. It would also include death toll, health problems and vast property damages.