Due to the complex nature of construction projects, delay risks are more widespread in the construction sector than elsewhere. This poses a problem for the industry, since it is already at risk because of the recent global economic recession. Indeed, the financial crisis in late 2008 arrested economic development in the construction sector in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with the result that investors’ confidence in the sector is severely depressed. In this situation, effective risk response is urgently required, since it aims to ensure that all project objectives, including avoiding delays, are met. In itself, the risk response process is a core element of risk management and perhaps the most important area needs to be improved. The aim of the research work that underpins this thesis was to develop a model for effective risk response to help in controlling delay risks. First, the strengths and weaknesses of current risk response processes have been analysed through a comprehensive critical literature review. Common causes of delay risks have been identified and various traditional measures used for their control have been critically reviewed. The greatest deficiencies in all published measures of delay risks control in construction projects are related to the lack of risk response development and appropriate measures (preventative/mitigating), within the risk management process. From the literature review it was also possible to identify the most appropriate methodology to adopt for the current research. A robust research methodology was then outlined which involved a questionnaire survey, case studies and interviews to confirm the literature review results and to achieve the research objectives. The questionnaire was piloted with nine construction professionals in the UAE for its suitability with the envisaged sample. After the pilot the questionnaire was refined then administered in 35 construction, consultancy, and contracting companies, attracting 102 usable responses. The results of the questionnaire confirmed the literature review results. Accordingly, six case studies from three companies were identified and supplemented by face-to-face interview, documents and direct observations. This strategy allowed the research evidence to be triangulated and thus the researcher to be more confident in testing a particular concept or theory. From the results it emerged that most organisations have immature project management systems and poor risk response processes. Hence, 22 Key Success Factors (KSFs) of preventative measures and 15 KSFs of mitigation measures were identified to achieve risk response development by maturity levels in the pre-construction stage and in the construction stage, respectively. The analysis of the case studies revealed the great potential for employing five KSFs of mitigation measures in the risk response development to control delay risks. Having considered these outcomes a risk response development model to control delay risks has been outlined. The model has been carefully validated, both theoretically and in practical terms, through the discussions with interviewees from the selected case studies. The interviewees agreed on the practicality of the model to identify the risk response development, however it is recommended that the project risk event severity and the company capability would need to be taken into account, and the demand to format the test stage for the maturity levels at the transition stages (Disciplinary, Consistency, Integration, and Optimisation) to achieve the effectiveness and the transparency of the model. Based on the validation, it is anticipated that by developing the risk response model, the process itself will be more objective, particularly in delay risks control. The study brings forward findings that can be promoted as the means to enhance opportunities to control delay risks, and benefit practitioners in the UAE given that so far, there has been no model of risk response development by maturity levels for delay risks control. Moreover, one of the unique features of the study is the creation of new knowledge by focusing on the UAE. At the same time, the use of maturity modeling to handle construction delay risks provides new knowledge for a wider audience.

Risk is everywhere and it is something which we face in everyday life. Same is the case with projects. Projects are complex and risks are inherent in projects. It is not unusual for unexpected events to occur and for uncertainty to emerge in projects. These events contribute to project riskswhich require to be dealt with so that projects could continue to run effectively. The need for good project risk management is therefore especially important as it could determine the successof the project or otherwise. However, research on the factors that make project risk response successful has been neglected. Contemporary researchers focused on risk management phases other than risk response. Our main focus in this paper is to indicate determinants of project risk response success and their relative importance in the construction industry of Sweden. The construction industry is considered as construction projects are not only important but they identify tangibly with the physical outputs of projects and exemplify the uncertainty and risks that are present in this type of projects. Sweden is chosen as the context of our study owing to the immense contributions of the construction sector towards the country’s growth and GDP. On thebasis of extensive literature review, we have come up with the determinants for project risk response success and developed a proposed conceptual model. A quantitative study is undertaken with the administration of questionnaires. The empirical data is gathered from project managers in the construction industry of Sweden for this purpose. Project managers are selected as respondents as they would be the ones controlling and managing projects, along with responding to the various risks subjected to in projects. Hypotheses have been generated for this research and the results are analyzed to determine if these hypotheses are to be accepted or rejected. For data analysis, SPSS is used. The results are drawn by the use of statistical tools like ANOVA, correlation and t-tests. These outcomes will lead to the conclusion of our study as to what the factors are that determine project risk response success and their relative importance. A revised conceptual model is finally developed to address the findings of our research. This research found a set of seven success factors which can be used as a guideline for project risk response success. These factors are (1) Team competency and skills, (2) Effective communication, (3) Active leadership, (4) Negotiation and coordination, (5)Hierarchical structure, (6) Behaviour and (7) Empowerment. These determinants of project risk response success can be generalized to the construction industry in Sweden. Keywords: project risk, project risk management, uncertainty, unexpected events, risk response, construction industry.

Wind power installations are growing rapidly throughout the world due to environmental concerns associated with electric power generation from conventional generating units. Wind power is highly variable and its uncertainty creates considerable difficulties in system operation. Reliable operation of an electric power system with significant wind power requires quantifying the uncertainty associated with wind power and assessing the capacity value of wind power that will be available in the operating lead time. This thesis presents probabilistic techniques that utilize time series models and a conditional probability approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with wind power in a short future time, such as one or two hours. The presented models are applied to evaluate the risk of committing electric power from a wind farm to a power system. The impacts of initial wind conditions, rising and falling wind trends, and different operating lead times are also assessed using the developed methods. An appropriate model for day-ahead wind power commitment is also presented. Wind power commitment for the short future time is commonly made equal to, or a certain percentage, of the wind power available at the present time. The risk in meeting the commitment made in this way is different at various operating conditions, and unknown to the operator. A simplified risk based method has been developed in this thesis to assist the operator in making wind power commitments at a consistent level of risk that is acceptable to the system. This thesis presents a methodology to integrate the developed short-term wind models with the conventional power generation models to evaluate the overall operational reliability of a wind integrated power system. The area risk concept has been extended to incorporate wind power, evaluate the unit commitment risk and the well- being indices of a power system for a specified operating lead time. The method presented in this thesis will assist the operator to determine the generator units and the operating reserve required to integrate wind power and meet the forecast load for a short future time while maintaining an acceptable reliability criterion. System operators also face challenges in load dispatch while integrating wind power since it cannot be dispatched in a conventional sense, and is accepted as and when present in current operational practices. The thesis presents a method to evaluate the response risk and determine the unit schedule while satisfying a specified response risk criterion incorporating wind power. Energy storage is regarded as an effective resource for mitigating the uncertainty of wind power. New methods to incorporate energy storage with wind models, and with wind-integrated power system models to evaluate the wind power commitment risk and unit commitment risk are presented in this thesis. The developed methods and the research findings should prove useful in evaluating the operating risks to wind farm operators and system operators in wind integrated power systems.

在社會、經濟、技術及政治快速變遷下，專案的管理方式由於具有彈性及可變性，因此較能因應複雜的外在環境。而在未來越來越複雜的外在環境變化中，專案管理者必須學習處理更廣闊的領域，以導引專案至成功的境界(Tuman, 1986)。 　　而由於專案面臨內在與外在的不確定性及風險，可能不利於專案目標的達成，因此有必要針對專案可能面臨的不利事件加以評估與分析，以瞭解專案風險的衝擊來源，並決定對專案風險的因應方式，以確保專案目標能夠確實達成。本研究嘗試以整體的觀點，涵蓋對專案外在環境特性與內在因應能力的討論，探討如何建立專案風險的管理程序及因應機制，以確保專案風險的發生可能減低，或一旦風險的確發生，風險對於專案所衝擊的不利後果能夠最小。 　　因此本研究選取新產品發展專案為研究對象，以個案訪談法進行，共訪問七個新產品發展專案後，得出研究結果與命題如下： 　　一、在專案風險與環境特性方面 　　命題一　專案風險與環境特性有關，環境特性包括豐富性、集中性與變動性。 　　命題1-1　專案風險與環境豐富性有關。 　　命題1-2　專案風險與環境集中性有關。 　　命題1-3　專案風險與環境變動性有關。 　　二、在專案風險與因應能力方面 　　命題二　專案風險因應能力可降低專案風險；因應能力包括資源取得與調配能力及資訊蒐集與處理能力。 　　命題2-1　專案的資源取得及調配能力可降低專案風險。 　　命題2-2　專案的資訊取得與處理能力可降低專案風險。 　　三、在專案風險因應策略方面 　　根據風險因應時點的不同，專案風險可分事先因應的預應策略，以及事後反應的反應策略。本研究提出預應風險策略包括聯結風險源、降低風險源依賴、增強自身因應能力、配置風險承擔與迴避風險源五種。 　　命題三　專案風險預應策略可降低專案風險。 　　命題3-1　風險因應策略依照專案風險承擔程度的不同，可分為保留型、配置型與迴避型。 　　四、專案風險、因應能力與因應策略關係 　　命題四　專案風險因應策略與專案風險型態有關。專案風險型態可依因應能力高低與風險高低分為四種型態，第一型風險為風險高、因應能力高者，傾向採取預應保留型。第二型風險為風險高、因應能力低者，傾向採取預應配置型或預應迴避型。第三型風險為風險低、因應能力高者，傾向採取反應型策略。第四型風險為風險低、因應能力低者，因應策略的採取須視狀況而定。 　　此外，本研究分別研究並提出專案風險、專案風險管理、專案風險環境特性、專案風險因應能力、專案風險因應策略與因應型態的概念與意義，並釐清環境特性、因應能力與因應策略的關係，以及嘗試建立整合性的風險管理程序。最後依據本研究的專案風險管理程序，針對需求面、通路面、競爭面、技術面、供應面、外包面、資金面、員工面、團隊面九個風險環境構面提出環境特性分析、因應能力分析及因應策略建議。

In today’s world, project risk management has always been a complex topic, especially inconstruction industry; thus managing project risks is required as compulsory for anyconstruction project to be successful. This master thesis presents a critical analysis ofproject risk management and significant impacts of its application on the success of aspecific project’s delivery. It identifies different types of project risk managementprocesses and frameworks used by construction projects. In order to examine how risk andrisk management process is perceived in construction projects, a case study of a LeheHome reconstruction project is chosen and data collection methods of semi-structuredinterviews and questionnaires are applied. The main purpose of this thesis is to explore,describe and analyze the perceived risk management practice in Lehe Home reconstructionproject. Managing risks in Lehe Home project has been recognised as a very importantproject management process in order to achieve the project objectives in terms of time,cost, quality. The study will examine and evaluate the risk management process in specificphases of Lehe Home project and essentially analyze the empirical findings. Finally, thestudy generalizes and develops the project risk analysis and management from Lehe Homeproject and suggests for public sectors to help project managers to make better decisionsunder risky conditions.

This master’s thesis is focused on risk management of a particular project in the company BIC Brno s.r.o. The theoretical part describes the principles of project management, each particular step of the risk management process and main methods used for identification and quantification of risks. The analytical part contains a description of the project and its plans and an analysis of the current situation of the company, the main aim is to identify potential project risks, to evaluate them using RIPRAN method, and to plan the actions to reduce importance. The outcome of the thesis is the risk register, which can be used for other projects in the company and make risk management more efficient.

自2001年美國高盛公司首席經濟學家歐尼爾首次提出「金磚四國」這個概念，預計到2050年世界經濟格局將會經歷劇烈洗牌，全球新六大經濟體將變成中國、美國、印度、日本、巴西及俄羅斯，此後巴西就一直活躍在世界的重要經濟舞台上。其廣大的內需消費市場、充沛的勞動力及豐富的天然資源吸引眾多國外投資者前仆後繼進入，想佔有一席之地。 然而跨國企業經營巴西市場存在一定的障礙，如：政府行政單位的無效率、法規繁多且複雜、稅收種類多、生產成本高且運輸服務不完善、資金成本過高、國家風險指數高導致融資不易、非正規經濟無處不在、教育水平不高、基礎建設不健全、官僚腐敗情況時有發生、勞工法不盡合理導致勞資糾紛等，讓許多跨國企業乘興而來，鎩羽而歸。根據世界銀行發佈的營商環境友善度調查顯示，巴西在189個國家中排名第120位。 然而商機總是伴隨著風險，著名的管理大師彼得‧杜拉克曾經說：「經營一個企業，若想要完全避免風險是不可能的。企業經營的最大目的，是設法有效的支配現有資源，以期能獲得最大的收益，而風險正是這個過程中不可避免的事物」。在巴西這種外部經營環境不良的情況下，該如何降低經營風險？將風險管理（risk management）策略融合在策略管理（strategic management）中，將是本研究探討的重點。 本研究透過對個案公司在巴西市場的經營，利用商業模式圖的要素分析其商業模式與核心競爭能力，再與主要競爭者進行對照分析，找出各廠商在巴西市場的策略重點。之後，進一步分析個案公司所面臨的外部與內部風險，接著以企業風險管理框架為架構，分析其風險對抗策略，以及與商業模式的關連性，進而探討個案公司在巴西市場的策略風險管理佈局及其優劣勢。