<p>The central puzzles in financial economics commonly include</p><p>violations of the expectations hypotheses, predictability of excess returns, and the levels and volatilities of nominal bond yields, in addition to well-known equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles.</p><p>Equally surprising is the recent evidence on large moves in asset prices, and the over-pricing of the out-of-the-money index put options relative to standard models. In this work, I argue that the long-run risks type model can successfully explain these features of financial markets. I present robust empirical evidence which supports the main economic channels in the model. Finally, I develop econometric methods to estimate and test the model, and find that it delivers plausible preference and model parameters and provides a good fit to the asset-price and macroeconomic data.</p><p>In the first chapter, which is co-authored with Ravi Bansal, we present a long-run risks based equilibrium model that can quantitatively explain the violations of expectations hypotheses and predictability of returns in bond and currency markets. The key ingredients of the model include a low-frequency predictable component in consumption, time-varying consumption volatility and investor's preferences for early resolution of uncertainty. In this model, varying consumption volatility in the presence of the predictable consumption component leads to appropriate variation in bond yields and the risk premia to provide an explanation for the puzzling violations of the expectations hypothesis. Using domestic and foreign consumption and asset markets data we provide direct empirical support for the economic channels highlighted in the paper.</p><p>In the second chapter, co-authored with Ravi Bansal, we develop a general equilibrium model in which income and dividends are smooth, but asset prices are subject to large moves (jumps). A prominent feature of the model is that the optimal decision of investors to learn the unobserved state triggers large asset-price jumps. We show that the learning choice is critically determined by preference parameters and the conditional volatility of income process. An important prediction of the model is that income volatility predicts future jumps, while the variation in the level of income does not. We find that indeed in the data large moves in returns are predicted by consumption volatility, but not by the changes in the consumption level. In numerical calibrations, we show that the model can quantitatively capture these novel features of the data.</p><p>In the third chapter, I present a long-run risks type model where consumption shocks are Gaussian, and the agent learns about unobserved expected growth from the cross-section of signals. The uncertainty about expected growth (confidence measure), as in the data, is time-varying and subject to jump-like risks. I show that the confidence jump risk channel can quantitatively account for the option price puzzles and large moves in asset prices, without hard-wiring jumps into consumption. Based on two estimation approaches, the model provides a good fit to the option price, confidence measure, returns and consumption data, at the plausible preference and model parameter values.</p> / Dissertation

The Web and Web-based open systems are characterized by their massive amount of data and services for leveraging this data. These systems are noted for their open and unregulated nature, self-supervision, and high degree of dynamism, which are key features in supporting a rich set of opportunities for information sharing, discovery, and commerce. But these open and self-managing features also carry risks and raise growing concerns over the security and privacy of these systems, including issues like spam, denial-of-service, and impersonated digital identities. Our focus in this thesis is on the design, implementation, and analysis of large-scale Web-based open systems, with an eye toward enabling new avenues of information discovery and ensuring robustness in the presence of malicious participants. We identify three classes of vulnerabilities that threaten these systems: vulnerabilities in link-based search services, vulnerabilities in reputation-based trust services over online communities, and vulnerabilities in Web categorization and integration services. This thesis introduces a suite of methods for increasing the tamper-resilience of Web-based open systems in the face of a large and growing number of threats. We make three unique contributions: First, we present a source-centric architecture and a set of techniques for providing tamper-resilient link analysis of the World Wide Web. We propose the concept of link credibility and present a credibility-based link analysis model. We show that these approaches significantly reduce the impact of malicious spammers on Web rankings. Second, we develop a social network trust aggregation framework for supporting tamper-resilient trust establishment in online social networks. These community-based social networking systems are already extremely important and growing rapidly. We show that our trust framework support high quality information discovery and is robust to the presence of malicious participants in the social network. Finally, we introduce a set of techniques for reducing the opportunities of attackers to corrupt Web-based categorization and integration services, which are especially important for organizing and making accessible the large body of Web-enabled databases on the Deep Web that are beyond the reach of traditional Web search engines. We show that these techniques reduce the impact of poor quality or intentionally misleading resources and support personalized Web resource discovery.

The properties of Construction Engineering include: (1) high building cost, (2) unpredictability of construction risk because of the fact that the period of executing the contract is long and the external environment is easy to change, (3) the phenomena that disputes and conflicts happen easily since a construction project normally requires a large number of constructing units, each of which owns their complicated construction technology and expertise. As the process of the construction project involves various risks, the awareness of these risks and the method of diversifying the risks become important. This dissertation focuses on study of the legal aspects of the construction contact; It first tries to analyze the properties of the construction contract, its related properties which cause higher risks than contract with consideration, and different types of disputes and conflicts in common dispute decision and arbitration judgment in construction projects. Then it studies the commitment resulting from the disputes, and the comments on disputes of same kind in the real cases. Further it makes a basic proposition to the comments. Finally it examines the feasibility of the proposition through interviewing with some experts (adopting the method of Delphi). Meanwhile it modifies the proposition and adds more comments onto it proposition, in the hope that both of the owner and the contractor can prevent the disputes at the time of making contract.¡@ In most of the real case, the owners normally transfer the risks they should have taken to the contractors. This way of distributing risks may not either bring efficiency or benefits to the contract; instead it brings more losses to both sides. There are no many clauses in the section Hire of Work in Civil Code regarding distribution of risks. Those clauses leave incomplete resolution of various risks likely to happen in the contract. Therefore it is necessary to emphasize the principles of risk distribution in the construction contract¡Gmainly the just and reasonable principle, principle of change of circumstances, and principle of good faith, etc. The construction conventions can be referred too, such as convention of project fact, and the commom law which ie formed of the opiom by the court¡Barbitration judgment¡Bmediation¡C

<p>The concept of outsourcing is a hot topic even today. The area of IT has received more attention when compared to other areas of outsourcing. Many organizations started outsourcing IT functions to other countries to access international markets. There lie many risks that are overlooked by these organizations. These risks need to be properly assessed and managed. This research investigates the potential risks perceived to be most relevant in the process of IT outsourcing from the customers point of view and how organizations can eliminate these risks by providing measures to assess risks. Literature analysis is the methodology used for conducting this research as it is assumed to cover all aspects of risks that lie in global IT outsourcing process.</p>

<p>The life insurance business is currently going through a lot of changes. The turmoil in stock markets during the last years has made regulators realize that there is a greater need for risk management and solvency supervision in the business. Denmark was one of the first countries in Europe to react to this and in 2001 the Danish FSA implemented a stress test called the Traffic Lights System. This is a tool to measure various risks in different scenarios for financial institutions.</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the effects of imposing a Danish style stress test on the Swedish life insurance market. In order to analyze the various effects of this stress test a theoretical framework consisting of fixed income securities and interest rate theory have been applied, since one of the largest risk a life insurer faces is the interest rate risk. Due to the fact that the Danish stress test is not fully applicable on the Swedish market, the authors created a model based on the Danish test to analyze Swedish life insurers. The model estimates the financial risks a life insurer faces. Analyzing the results based on the model, the authors found that three out of seven life insurers in the sample had solvency problems to various extend.</p><p>The authors conclude that a great part of financial risks within life insurers can be reduced by reallocating equity holding to bonds and by duration matching between assets and liabilities. The authors also conclude that Swedish life insurers are in better financial shape today than their Danish counterparts were in 2001, which is why less dramatic effect is to be expected on the Swedish financial markets as a result of imposing the stress test.</p>

Risks are an inevitable consequence of human action, as well as of technology. Even everyday routines and familiar technologies are not without risk, but they are accepted. Innovative technology, however, is viewed as risky. This is often only an expression of a lack of confidence arising from a corresponding lack of experience in dealing with technology. Estimations of potential use become the subject of scientific-technological, internal (quantifying) discussion, as well as of an external ethical-sociological debate including also consideration of the affected parties, i.e. customers, consumers and (professional) users. Alongside the internal (professional) evaluation, an external evaluation (acceptability and acceptance) is becoming ever more important. The necessity for reflection on modern technology leads to the establishment of a &amp;quot;technology reflection culture&amp;quot;. / Risiken sind eine unvermeidliche Folge von menschlichem Handeln, auch von Technik. Alltagsroutine und vertraute Technik sind zwar auch nicht ohne Risiko, aber akzeptiert. Innovative Technik wird als riskant eingeschätzt. Dies ist oft nur fehlendes Vertrauen aufgrung mangelnder Erfahrung im Umgang mit Technik. Die Abschätzung potentiellen Gebrauchs wird Gegenstand der wissenschaftlich-technisch internen (quantifizierenden) Diskussion wie der externen ethisch-sozialwissenschaftlichen Diskussion inklusive der Berücksichtigung von Betroffenen, d.h. Kunden, Konsumenten und (professionellen) Anwendern. Neben der internen (standesmäßigen und berufsmäßigen Bewertung) wird die externe Bewertung (Akzeptabilität und Akzeptanz) immer wichtiger. Die Notwendigkeit einer Reflexion auf moderne Technologie führt zur Etablierung einer „Technologie-Abwägungs-Kultur“.

<p>The research in the field of biotechnology is rapidly developing all over the world. Modern biotechnology offers unique opportunities, simultaneously as it gives rise to a number of ethical issues. Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), PGD/HLA (Human Leucocyte Antigen) and germline gene therapy (GLGT) are controversial techniques. PGD gives a possibility to identify a genetic disease prior to the embryo’s implantation in the uterus. PGD/HLA involves selecting an embryo with genes coding for a specific tissue type, so that the child to be born can act as a donor to an existing sibling who requires a stem cell transplant. GLGT seeks to eliminate or change “bad” genes.</p><p>The purpose of this study is to investigate student’s ethical attitude concerning PGD, PGD/HLA and GLGT.</p><p>The empirical study was based on focus group discussions. Four group interviews were made, with 15 participants in all. The students are taking courses in biology or religion.</p><p>The result from the interviews shows that the ethical issues are difficult to have a definite opinion in, because there are possibilities and risks involved in all these techniques, according to the students. A central part of the discussion was devoted to human dignity and the moral status of the embryo. They also see risks such as bioterrorism, designing the perfect humans, economic interests, medical risks, among many other risks.</p> / <p>Forskningen på det bioteknologiska området utvecklas snabbt över hela världen. Den moderna bioteknologin erbjuder unika möjligheter, samtidigt som den ger upphov till en rad frågor av etiskt slag. Preimplantatorisk genetisk diagnostik (PGD), PGD/HLA (Human Leucocyte Antigen) och zygotisk genterapi är kontroversiella tekniker. PGD ger en möjlighet att identifiera genetiska sjukdomar före embryots implantering i livmodern. Med hjälp av PGD/HLA väljs ett embryo ut vars gener kodar för en specifik vävnadstyp, vilket gör att barnet som föds kan fungera som donator till ett existerande syskon som är i behov av en stamcells transplantation. Med zygotisk genterapi kan man ta bort eller byta ut ”dåliga” gener.</p><p>Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka studenters etiska värderingar rörande PGD, PGD/HLA och zygotisk genterapi.</p><p>Den empiriska studien baserades på fokusgrupp diskussioner. Fyra gruppintervjuer gjordes, med sammanlagt 15 deltagare. Studenterna studerar på programutbildningar i biologi eller religion.</p><p>Resultatet från intervjuerna visar att de etiska frågeställningarna är svåra att ha en klar uppfattning om, eftersom det finns möjligheter och risker med alla dessa tekniker, enligt studenterna. En central del av diskussionen ägnades åt människovärdet och embryots moraliska status. De ser också risker som bioterrorism, designa perfekta människor, ekonomiska intressen, medicinska risker, bland många andra risker.</p>

Since Wakefield, Murch, Anthony, Linnell, Casson, Malik, Berelowitz, Dhillon, Thomson, Harvey, Valentine, Davies and Walker-Smith’s (1998) proposed a causal link between the MMR vaccine and autism and Crohn’s disease (a form of irritable bowel disease: IBD), vaccine uptake rates gradually declined in the UK. Parents of young children began to question the safety of MMR immunisation and were required to assess the risks and benefits of MMR immunisation during their decision-making process. The studies in the present thesis aimed to investigate factors influencing parents’ risk assessment, MMR intentions and behaviour to gain an understanding of parents’ decision-making process. A mixed method approach was taken, using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Four studies involving parents of young children and students were carried out in Scotland. The first study was a cross-sectional questionnaire-based study which used Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and Subjective Norm (SN) to understand parents’ MMR immunisation intentions and behaviour for first dose and second dose MMR vaccine. The results suggest PMT was a useful psychometric risk model when examining first-dose and second-dose MMR immunisation and associated risks. The inclusion of SN in the model increased its overall robustness. Differences between immunising parents and non-immunising parents were identified. Immunisers perceived measles, mumps and rubella to be severe diseases and reported greater susceptibility and fear in relation to the diseases, whereas non-immunisers reported more concern about the associated risks of autism and IBD. Additionally, immunisers were more likely to follow the advice of health professionals (GP and health visitor) and reported them to be important sources of information, whereas non-immunisers were less likely to follow advice from health professionals and reported the media and internet to be important sources of information. The second study used a similar methodology to the first study but used PMT and SN to investigate MMR immunisation decision-making in a sample of 90 previously non-immunised university students during a mumps outbreak on campus. PMT and SN were found to be important constructs when understanding the students’ immunisation behaviour. In comparison with non-immunising students, immunising students reported greater fear, severity and perceived risks of the vaccine-preventable diseases. Non-immunisers perceived greater external barriers to immunisation and anxiety about immunisation to be an internal barrier. Both groups valued the information provided by health professionals and were more likely to follow the advice from these referents than any other referent group. Comparisons were made between the results of the first two studies. The findings indicate PMT, including SN, was a useful model when examining the MMR decision-making process for immunisers and non-immunisers in different population groups. Parents and students reported similar threat appraisals in relation to the vaccine-preventable diseases, but were different in their coping responses (response efficacy and self-efficacy). Many similar patterns between students and parents were illustrated, but parents reported stronger beliefs related to their parental role. The results indicate that MMR decision-making differs depending on the population under study. The third study used 5 focus groups and thematic analysis to explore the role of subjective norm (SN) and other social norms in greater depth with immunising parents. The findings indicate that social norms play a central role in the decision-making process, in addition to SN. Social normative factors which were found to contribute to the decision process included: group identification and norms, SN, descriptive norms, private self, relational self, and moral norms. The ‘private self’, i.e. own personal identity as ‘parents’, and feelings of moral obligation to their child were perceived as important social norms during the MMR decision. Parents were willing to listen to the advice of significant others but perceived their ‘private self’ as playing a more active role during the decision process. Experience of other parents’ MMR behaviour (descriptive norm) contributed to the risk assessment of the MMR vaccine and increased confidence in their own decision when congruent. The dual role of health professionals (who were also parents) as a ‘medical professional’ and as a ‘parent’ was influential during the decision process. The final study further investigated the influence of health professionals (HPs) on parents’ MMR decision-making. The role of interpersonal and generalised trust was explored using one-to-one interviews with 6 MMR immunisers, 3 non-immunisers and 8 immunisers with single vaccines. All groups of parents reported generalised mistrust in the Government based on the provision of biased information and past experiences of Government behaviour. Parents who opted for the MMR vaccines described interpersonal trust with their own HPs, where HPs were willing to openly discuss concerns relating to the MMR vaccine. Parents opting for the single vaccines or refusing all vaccines tended to report mixed experiences with their HPs, with some parents citing them as unhelpful and unwilling to discuss MMR concerns. Greater trust was illustrated by all parents, regardless of immunisation status, for their own health professionals and the NHS than for private clinics offering the single vaccines. Parents opting for the single vaccines perceived them to be safer (in terms of autism and IBD) than the MMR vaccine but questioned their credibility. The four studies illustrate that PMT facilitates understanding of parents’ MMR decision making and behaviour, and highlights the importance of including social norms (as well as important sources of information) and trust in future MMR immunisation research. Furthermore, comparisons with parents and students illustrate differences in coping appraisal between the two groups and suggest risk assessment differs depending on the saliency of the risk for the population group.

This dissertation studies households' housing decision in the presence of income risks, and its implication on within-cohort income/consumption inequality and the nature of income risks facing households. It is composed of three chapters. The first chapter presents evidence from Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and Consumer Expenditure Survey (PSID) that housing consumption and housing investment are negatively affected by income risks. Within a household portfolio choice model, the negative effect can be attributed to the illiquidity of housing investment and the positive correlation between house price and income. The second chapter provides empirical evidence that the secular rise of income and consumption inequalities in the United States is age-dependent. It is more significant among younger households. With this feature, biasedness arises from the traditional methodology of decomposing inequality into age effect, year effect and cohort effect. A simple but effective remedy for the problem is proposed. The third chapter of the dissertation studies the age-profile of within-cohort income/consumption inequality, using the methodology proposed in the second chapter. It documents the age-profile of housing consumption inequality which is almost flat. This stands in contrast to the well-documented fact that within-cohort nonhousing consumption inequality rises with age, which has been argued to be evidence for persistent, uninsurable income shocks to households. This argument is challenged by the finding that housing consumption inequality has a flat age-profile. Within the framework of standard lifecycle model, the coexistence of rising nonhousing consumption inequality and flat housing consumption inequality constitutes a puzzle. A potential resolution lies in the negative effect of income uncertainty on housing decision which diminishes with age, as shown in the first chapter of the dissertation. / text

The applicant's research has led to a substantial body of published work and 17 pieces from this work are submitted here. Of these, eight are in peer refereed journals testifying to the importance of the body of work submitted. The work has attracted external funding of £73,000 from North West Thames Regional Health Authority which attests further to the quality of the work undertaken. In addition the applicant's expertise in the area has been recognised internationally by her appointments as World Health Organisation Advisor (Guidelines on Counselling of HIV Infected and AIDS Patients; Intravenous Drug Use and Risk of HIV Infection) and as UK representative to the Commission of the European Communities (Prevention of AIDS for Intravenous Drug Users) and she has presented evidence to a Home Office Working Party (Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs) and acted as academic referee for several academic journals including AIDS, AIDS Care, and Addiction. The submitted research publications are based upon five studies drawing upon 623 injecting drug users (idus) surveyed between 1985 and October 1992. The demographic characteristics of the clients included in each of the studies did not vary substantially between studies. Three of the studies involved evaluation of interventions for harm minimisation and two of those included designs of innovative interventions. The remaining two were aimed at identifying trends in risk - related behaviours and risk reduction. The body of work with its regular data collection over a seven year period from one location in the UK charts the behavioural changes and service responses from a point in time when AIDS awareness among idus was virtually non-existent through the response to the awareness of risks of sharing injecting equipment, followed by the introduction of needle exchange schemes and their evaluation, awareness of sexual transmission risks and need for sexual counselling, provides a unique perspective. The first and the final study had longitudinal components but the over all behavioural and attitudinal trends are identified from cross-sectional data. The approach taken by the research was to place risk-related behaviours within a context of the idus' social lifestyles rather than isolating behaviours from the contexts in which they occur. This approach contrasts with the individualistic social-cognitive models that have been used by others rather unsuccessfully to try to account for health related risk behaviours. The aims of the research were to obtain accurate information about the behaviours of idus with specific reference to HIV transmission related behaviours especially injecting practices and sexual behaviours by (1) identifying the characteristics of idus attending a drug dependency unit and/or syringe exchange unit in Central London (2) examining the sexual and drug-related behaviours of clients attending those services and their risks for HIV infections.