Orientador: Maria Elena Guariento / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T05:18:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Kamada_Marcio_M.pdf: 1489300 bytes, checksum: 9d69a61f9cc605d79f9f6bef70c2b19f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: A população brasileira tem envelhecido rapidamente nas últimas décadas. Entre os eventos incapacitantes que acometem os idosos, destaca-se a ocorrência de quedas, que é o mecanismo de lesão mais freqüente nesse grupo, sobretudo em mulheres. Uma das conseqüências da queda é a fratura de quadril, evento associado com mortalidade significativa e variações quanto às conseqüências. A prevenção de fraturas de quadril é possível quando os fatores de risco são reconhecidos e modificados. Sendo assim, considerou-se importante investigar, junto à idosas atendidas em nível ambulatorial em hospital de referência, a presença de fatores de risco para fratura de quadril e a associação desses com o evento quedas e fratura, a fim de permitir ao serviço de saúde conhecer as peculiaridades das idosas com que se lida e facilitar a definição de estratégias que possam contribuir com a diminuição dos riscos. Este estudo objetivou, portanto, descrever inicialmente as características de uma população de mulheres idosas seguidas nos Ambulatórios de Geriatria, Cardiologia e Gastroclínica da Unicamp do Hospital de Clínicas da Unicamp (Campinas, SP), avaliadas entre o segundo semestre de 2008 e o primeiro semestre de 2009, quanto aos seguintes fatores de risco para fratura de quadril: antecedente de queda / fratura óssea no último ano, peso ? 60 quilos, uso das duas mãos para passar da posição sentada para a posição ereta, idade igual ou superior a 80 anos. Visou, também, avaliar a evolução clínica, durante o primeiro ano de seguimento, dessa mesma população, verificando-se a associação entre a presença de tais fatores e os seguintes eventos: número de consultas médicas, abandono do seguimento clínico, história de queda e/ou fratura óssea; hospitalização; deterioração cognitiva; óbito. Os dados foram obtidos através de análise dos prontuários médicos e entrevistas por telefone das pacientes selecionadas. Na primeira avaliação, observou-se que 44% das entrevistadas apresentavam dois ou mais fatores de risco para fratura de quadril, sendo os mais freqüentes: antecedente de queda e / ou fratura óssea (53%) e peso ? 60 quilos (38%). No seguimento clínico dessas idosas verificou-se que o autorrelato prévio de queda/fratura óssea associou-se significativamente com nova queda, apresentando risco 3,7 vezes maior em comparação com as idosas que negavam queda anteriormente. Também se evidenciou associação significativa entre deterioração cognitiva e presença de maior número de fatores de risco para fratura de quadril. / Abstract: The Brazilian population has aged rapidly in recent decades. Among the incapacitating events that affect the elderly, there is the occurrence of falls, which is the most frequent mechanism of injury in this group, especially in women. One of the consequences of the fall is hip fracture, an event associated with significant mortality and variations about the consequences. Prevention of hip fractures is possible when risk factors are recognized and modified. Thus, it was considered important to investigate, with the elderly seen at the outpatient clinic in a referral hospital, the presence of risk factors for hip fracture and the association with the event of falls and fractures in order to enable the health service know the peculiarities of the elderly when dealing with them and facilitate the development of strategies that may contribute to risk reduction. This study aimed therefore initially describe the characteristics of a population of elderly women followed in the outpatient clinics of Geriatrics, Cardiology and Gastric HC Unicamp Clinical Hospital of Unicamp (Campinas, SP), evaluated between the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, for the following risk factors for hip fracture: a history of fall / fracture in the past year, weight ? 60 kg, using two hands to go from sitting to standing position, aged 80 years. It also aimed at assessing the clinical course during the first year of followup of that population, verifying the association between the presence of such factors and the following events: number of medical consultations, following abandonment of the clinical history of falling and / or bone fracture, hospitalization, cognitive impairment, death. Data were obtained through analysis of medical records and telephone interviews of selected patients. In the first, it was observed that 44% of respondents had two or more risk factors for hip fracture, the most frequent: a history of falling and / or bone fracture (53%) and weight ?60 kg (38%). In the clinical follow these elderly women found that the self-reported previous fall / fracture was significantly associated with further decline, with 3.7 times higher risk compared with the elderly who denied falling earlier. It also revealed a significant association between cognitive impairment and the presence of greater numbers of risk factors for hip fracture. / Mestrado / Mestre em Gerontologia

A atividade odontológica requer do cirurgião-dentista (CD) ações que exigem coordenação motora, raciocínio, discernimento, paciência, segurança, habilidade, delicadeza, firmeza, e objetividade. Bem como uma interação direta e frequente com pessoas, materiais e equipamentos, expondo-o a riscos físicos, químicos, biológicos, ergonômicos e mecânicos. Objetivo: O presente trabalho teve como objetivo investigar a prevalência dos principais riscos e doenças ocupacionais dos CD da cidade de Porto Velho, bem como seus possíveis vínculos com a prática odontológica em suas diferentes especialidades. Método: Para o desenvolvimento do projeto foi aplicado um questionário padronizado, contendo questões sobre dados pessoais e gerais, condições de trabalho, medidas de prevenção e proteção, e queixas ou danos sofridos durante o exercício laboral. Resultados: A população do estudo foi composta de 96 cirurgiões dentistas, de 22 a 59 anos, sendo 61 (63,54%) do gênero feminino. Embora todos os profissionais tenham relatado o conhecimento dos riscos de sua profissão e a utilização de Equipamentos de Proteção Individual (EPI), nem todos os EPIs requeridos pela profissão eram utilizados e 91 (94,79%) profissionais realizavam a substituição destes entre cada paciente. Todos referiram a prática de esterilização dos instrumentais e a maioria aplicava os conhecimentos de ergonomia e considerava suas condições de trabalho adequadas. Ainda assim, 33,33% relataram dores musculares, principalmente da especialidade dentística, 31,25% estresse, 23,96% manifestações alérgicas, e 15 profissionais referiram acidentes com materiais pérfuro-cortantes, sendo sete (46,67%) deles com material contaminado. Seis (6,25%) CD relataram alterações auditivas, no entanto nenhum utilizava protetor. Conclusão: Os resultados sugerem que mesmo sendo a odontologia uma profissão de risco, as medidas preventivas ainda são negligenciadas por alguns profissionais e as queixas mais comuns são as dores e o estresse, que podem favorecer a ocorrência de acidentes. / The odontological activity requires the dental surgeon to perform actions which demand motor coordination, reasoning, discernment, patience, security, ability, delicacy, firmness, and objectivity. As well as a direct and frequent interaction with people, materials and equipment, becoming exposed to physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic and mechanical risks. Objective: The present work aimed to investigate the prevalence of the main risks and occupational illnesses of the dental surgeon in the city of Porto Velho, as well as their possible bonds with the odontological practice in its different specialties. Method: For the development of the project, a standardized questionnaire was applied, comprehending questions on personal data and general conditions of work, prevention and protection actions, and complaints or damages suffered during labor. Results: The population of the study was composed by 96 dental surgeons, from 22 to 59 years of age, being 61 (63.54%) females. Although all the professionals (100%) have reported to know the profession risk and to use Individual Protection Equipment (IPE), nor all the IPEs required by the profession were used and only 91 (94.79%) professionals carried through the substitution of these between each patient. All of them said they used to perform instrument sterilization and the majority applied the ergonomics knowledge and considered their work conditions adequate. Still thus 33.33% reported muscular pains, mainly due to the dentistry specialty, 31.25% stress, 23.96% allergic manifestations, and 15 professionals reported accidents with perforate-cutting materials, seven (46.67%) of them with contaminated material. Six (6.25%) dental surgeons told they present auditory alterations, however none used the protecting device. Conclusion: The results suggest that once dentistry is a risky profession, the prevention writs still are neglected by some professionals and the most common complaints are pains and stress which may favor accident occurrence.

O intenso crescimento urbano vem agravando diversos problemas socioambientais e econômicos nas cidades. Nesse cenário, inundações urbanas são crescentes em muitas cidades brasileiras, causando diversos problemas. Embora as enchentes sejam consideradas fenômenos cíclicos e naturais, podem ser potencializadas pela ação humana. Visando o reconhecimento dos condicionantes destes eventos, a metodologia utilizada foi integrada, englobando fatores naturais, sociais e antrópicos. Foram pesquisados os eventos de inundações na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Jaú, as características humanas que influenciam, bem como a identificação das áreas de risco, visando contribuir social e ambientalmente para a minimização desses danos no município de Jaú-SP. No intuito de contribuir com a população que se encontra nas áreas de risco, foi realizado um estudo de campo, através da utilização de entrevistas, compatível com a realidade do município. O estudo documental, através do histórico de inundações na área urbana nos últimos dez anos, relacionou o processo de urbanização e a incidência de inundações. Entrelaçado a esses dados, identificou-se os bairros de ocorrência de inundação. A pesquisa demonstrou que existem 39 bairros suscetíveis a eventos de enxurradas e inundações. Já a inundação do ano de 2011, trouxe gastos totais de R$ 6.593.070,00 para o município, com danos materiais, não materiais e ambientais, além de prejuízos econômicos e sociais. Quanto a sociedade, observou-se que a relação entre ser humano e natureza se encontra estritamente desfavorável para ambos. / The intense urban growth is exacerbating many social, environmental and economic problems in cities. In this scenario, urban floods are increasing in many Brazilian cities, causing various problems. Although the floods are considered cyclical and natural phenomena, they may be potentiated by human action. Aimed at recognizing the constraints of these events, the methodology was integrated, encompassing natural factors, social and man-made. The flood events in the basin of Rio Jau were surveyed, the human characteristics that influence, and the identification of risk areas in order to contribute socially and environmentally to minimize such damage in the town of Jau-SP. In order to contribute to the population that is in risk areas, a field study was conducted through the use of interviews, consistent with the reality of the city. The desk study through the history of flooding in urban areas over the past decade, related the process of urbanization and the incidence of flooding. Intertwined with these data, it identified flood occurrence neighborhoods. Research has shown that there are 39 districts susceptible to runoff events and flooding. Since the flood of 2011, brought total expenditures of $ 6,593,070.00 for the county, material damages, nonmaterial and environmental as well as economic and social losses. As society, it was observed that the relationship between humans and nature is strictly negative for both.

Orientador: Marco Antonio Coelho Bortoleto / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Educação Física / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-21T01:43:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ferreira_DiegoLeandro_M.pdf: 4294439 bytes, checksum: 51b3342569baa3e2d208641efef2da7b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: Embora o Circo seja uma arte secular, considerada por muitos como uma linguagem universal e com significativo reconhecimento popular, as análises sistemáticas e científicas deste fenômeno são recentes. Alguns aspectos deste tipo de atividade já encontram certa ressonância acadêmica, especialmente nos estudos históricos, sociais e estéticos. Contudo, as questões sobre os aspectos técnicos e de segurança ainda representam um objeto de pouco interesse para a ciência moderna. Neste cenário, o presente estudo teve por objetivo debater os conceitos de risco, acidente e segurança sob a perspectiva de diferentes profissionais circenses, visando ainda apontar alguns dos recursos tecnológicos e procedimentais disponíveis na atualidade que servem de parâmetros básicos de segurança para o desenvolvimento de uma "cultura de segurança" entre os profissionais e praticantes do circo. Para isso, realizamos uma revisão bibliográfica acerca dos conceitos de risco, acidente e segurança, buscando um melhor entendimento a partir de perspectivas de diversas áreas de conhecimento. Este estudo teórico foi complementado por uma pesquisa de campo realizada junto a profissionais do circo, particularmente mediante entrevistas semiestruturadas com dois montadores, dois professores e dois artistas, todos eles no mínimo com dez anos de experiência. Como resultado deste trabalho, observamos uma grande variedade de acidentes e suas consequências diretas e indiretas para o circo, condição que reforça nossa tese da importância de seguirmos investigando a segurança, para que receba o devido tratamento de todos os envolvidos. De modo ilustrativo, propomos alguns procedimentos, protocolos e medidas de segurança que visam sensibilizar todos os circenses para uma necessária e urgente mudança de atitude com relação à segurança, aproximando-nos paulatinamente da adoção de uma "cultura de segurança" no circo / Abstract: Although the Circus is a secular art, considered as a universal language and with popular significant recognition, the systematic and scientific analyzes about this phenomenon are recent. Some aspects about this kind of activity have already found a certain academic resonance, especially in history, social and esthetic studies. However, the issues concerning the techniques and safety aspects represent a subject which has been little interesting to the modern science. In this scenery, this study proposed the discussion about risk, accident and safety concepts according to different circus professionals' perspective, aiming even to show some of technological and procedural resources that are available nowadays, which are basic parameters of safety for the development of a safety culture among the circus professionals and performers. For that, we've done a bibliographical revision about the risk conception, accident and security, aiming a better understanding from different knowledge areas perspectives. This theoretical studying was complemented by a research done in loco (field research) and particularly through semi-structured interview with two riggers, two teachers and two artists, all of them with 10 years of experience at least. As a study result, we realized a great variability of accident and its direct and indirect consequences for circus, condition that supports our theory of the importance to study on the safety, to receive the right treatment from all involved people. In an illustrative way we suggested some safety procedures, protocols and actions which aim to sensitize all de circus professionals to the necessity and urgent changing of attitude related to the safety, approaching to gradual definitive adoption of a safety culture in circus / Mestrado / Educação Fisica e Sociedade / Mestre em Educação Física

Organizations are taking computer security more seriously every day, investing huge amounts of money in creating stronger defenses including firewalls, anti-virus software, biometrics and identity access badges. These measures have made the business world more effective at blocking threats from the outside, and made it increasingly difficult for hackers or viruses to penetrate systems. But there are still threats that put organizations at risk , this threats are not necessary from external attackers, in this paper we will analyze what are the internal threats in organizations, why are we vulnerable and the best methods to protect our organizations from inside threats.

The three chapters all address solvency regulation issues, with a focus on market risks under the Solvency II framework. Chapter 1 deals with “high-level” aspects of Solvency II as main principles and the general structure. Chapters 2 and 3 will be devoted to quantitative issues. Chapter 1 describes the main evolutions that led to the development of Solvency II. The insurance sector has dramatically evolved during the last two decades. Among others developments, we stress the new risks faced by the sector as natural catastrophes, changing demographics or market risks. Insurers become international companies, investing almost 10 trillion € of assets in Europe at the end of 2014 and being increasingly intertwined with banks and other financial sectors. Financial innovation and the refinement of risk management techniques and models developed by companies have gained momentum among the major European insurance companies. Have these evolutions changed the needs for the supervisory of insurance companies? The economic foundation for regulation is based on the presence of market failures, including severe asymmetric information problems and principal-agent conflicts. Insurance consumers, particularly individuals and households, face significant challenges in judging the financial risk of insurers. But the importance of the insurance sector for financial stability has been increasing. A sound regulatory and supervisory system is necessary to maintain efficient, safe, fair and stable financial markets and promote growth and competition in the insurance sector. The difficult conditions experienced by the industry and the shortcomings of the previous regulatory and supervisory framework have forced regulators to take action to change the way in which they regulate insurance companies’ solvency. Recognizing the shortcomings of Solvency I, EU policy-makers undertook the Solvency II project. Solvency I was not consistently applied throughout EU as the directive allowed countries to implement insurance regulation in different ways. Moreover Solvency I did not consider risks fully or in detail. In life business, the major criticism was the lack of consideration of asset risks. Allowances for latest developments in risk management were also inadequate and companies could not use an internal model to calculate the solvency capital. Finally, the increasing presence of conglomerates and groups forced the insurance regulator to align some requirements with the banking regulation, Basel II/III. Due to the differences in their core business activities, banks and insurers regulators’ goal does not imply comparability of the overall capital charges. However, considering the asset side of the balance sheets, the investment portfolios of banks and insurers contain the same asset classes. In order to avoid regulatory arbitrage, the capital charges for the same amount and type of asset risk should be similar. Chapter 2 compares the main regulatory frameworks in Europe: Solvency II and the Swiss Solvency Test, SST, in Switzerland, with a focus on potential market implications. Both systems are quite advanced but some key differences need to be highlighted, including the treatment of assets, in particular sovereign bonds, the consideration of diversification or the risk measure applied. Solvency II uses a Value at Risk at 99.5% whereas the SST is based on a Tail Value at Risk at 99%. Our approach is both qualitative and quantitative. In particular, based on a numerical example, we aim at quantifying the level of regulatory capital prescribed by the standard models. The numerical analysis reveals large differences between capital charges assigned to the same asset class under Solvency II and the SST. Solvency II penalizes investment in stocks, mainly due to a lower diversification benefit under the standard formula. On the other hand the SST model requires a higher capital for bonds, primary due to a stringent risk measure and confidence level. The treatment of EU sovereign bonds under Solvency II is another area of concern as it does not require any capital for spread risk. The question arises to what extent an internal model leads to different capital requirements as compared to the SST and Solvency II models. Therefore we apply an internal approach based on Monte Carlo simulation to derive the necessary capital based on the Value at Risk at 99.5% (in line with the Solvency II standard model) and on the Tail Value at Risk at 99% (in line with the SST standard model). Internal models calculate capital requirements that more closely matches risks of insurers and promote a culture of risk management. To develop internal models, companies need incentives to properly manage their risks, i.e. decreasing capital requirements. One potential benefit of the standard model is that insurers who use it can be compared to one another, whereas internal models are by definition specific to individual insurers. One argument against the standard model is the possibility of some systemic risk. An unusual event in the capital or insurance market could encourage all insurers to take the exact same response, thereby causing a run in the market. The analysis shows that standard and internal models still display large discrepancies in their results, suggesting a long way ahead to achieve a harmonized view between the regulators and the insurance sector. The choice of a statistical model or the refinement of parameters are key concepts when setting up an internal model and appear to be critical in the Solvency Capital Requirement calculation. By calculating and comparing the market risk capital charges for a representative insurer under the Solvency II and the SST standard approach as well as an internal model, we are able to provide evidence that the regulatory framework might have an impact on asset portfolios. The main impacts would be a shift from long-term to shorter-term debt, an increase in the attractiveness of higher-rated corporate debt and government bonds, in particular EU sovereign bonds as the consequence of the special treatment under Solvency II, as well as low level of equity holdings. But it is unlikely that large-scale reallocations will happen in the short term, as transitional arrangements are likely to phase in the implementation of Solvency II over several years. The likely impact on assets portfolios could have also already been anticipating by insurers. Chapter 3 studies the effectiveness of the Solvency II reform to prevent the default probability faced by a life insurance company. The default risk leads to a consequence that policyholders might not get back their initial investment upon default of the insurance company. Therefore, policyholders are concerned with the issues like what probability the insurance company will become bankrupt and which amount they can expect to obtain after taking account of the default risk of the insurer. Starting from a theoretical life insurance company which sells a participation insurance policy containing only a savings component and a single premium inflow, we simulate a life insurance company on an eight-year time horizon. We focus only on market risks as there is no mortality risk attached to the insurance contract. Finally several policies and investment strategies will be analysed. The purpose of the chapter is to evaluate how Solvency II can prevent the company to collapse. The papers discussing Solvency II effectiveness are qualitative in nature. In particular there is little research on the accuracy of the standard formula with regard to the proclaimed ruin probability of 0.5% per year. To do so we compare the probability of default at maturity of the life insurance policy, i.e. if the company has to enough assets to pay what was promised to the policyholders, with the early probability of default forced by Solvency II based on standard and internal models. We have first to calculate the Solvency Capital Requirement as laid down in the directive. One crucial point is the evaluation of liabilities. To do so we use an approach recently applied by the insurance sector called Least-squares Monte Carlo (LSMC). The aim of Solvency II is to monitor insurers on an annual basis. The SCR level can then be interpreted as a regulatory barrier, consistent with a model developed by Grosen and Jørgensen (2002). Key drivers of the ruin probability at maturity include interest rate parameters, portfolio riskiness and investment strategies in bonds. The continuously decrease of interest rates creates a challenge for insurers, especially life insurers that suffer a double impact on their balance sheet: a valuation effect and a decreasing reinvestment returns of premiums and maturing bonds. The latter explain also the riskiness of rolling-bond strategies compared to duration matching strategies. By setting the confidence level to 99.5% per year, the regulator wants to ensure that the annual ruin probability equals to 0.5%. Since the SCR from our internal model equals the 0.5% quantile of the distribution, it exactly matches the targeted ruin probability. Our analysis reveals that the set-up and calibration of the Solvency II standard model are inadequate as the solvency capital derived by the standard formula overestimates the results of the internal model. This is mainly the consequence of an overestimated equity capital and a lower diversification benefit. The 0.5% proclaimed goal under Solvency II is not reached, being too conservative. One declared goal of the directive is to decrease the duration gap between assets and liabilities. Solvency II penalizes then rolling-bond strategies. The long-term feature of our policy should impact the level of regulatory capital. As Solvency II is based on a quantile measurement, we define the solvency capital using the default probability objective for different horizons. SCR is not systematically a decreasing function of the time horizon even if a decreasing form appears on long-term. This shows undoubtedly that a horizon effect exists in terms of measurement of solvency. As the standard model overestimated the internal model capital we expect a forced default probability higher than 0.5% under the Solvency II framework. The SCR barrier stops the company more often than it should be. This can be interpreted as one cost of regulation, i.e. closing down financially sound at maturity companies. The analysis of the evolution of default probabilities as a function of time horizon reveals that ruin probabilities at maturity lie always below the Solvency II objective. Furthermore the gap between the observed default at maturity and the Solvency II objective is increasing over time; the situation is even worse for longer-term insurance products. Finally stakeholders are more interested in their expected return than in the default probability. A cost of regulation defined as the difference between stakeholder’s returns with and without regulatory framework exists, particularly for shareholders. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This diploma thesis focuses on the issue of women delaying pregnancy and parenthood to later in life. The aim of this thesis is to map out the health risks related to pregnancies in mothers who are over 35 years old, to find out the reasons for the later in life pregnancy and whether women realize the health risks associated. The thesis describes the health risks resulting from pregnancies in older women at the time of the birth and using the method of linear regression to analyze the dependence of the mother age of 35 or higher on the low birth weight of the live birth. Further, the issue of postponing pregnancy and motherhood is examined from women's point of view in more detail through the method of semistructured interviews, especially the reasons for delaying pregnancy and information about health risks. The results show that with women, who become pregnant at an older age, there is a certain increase in health risks; however, generally women are not very well informed about these complications. Keywords: fertility, fertility timing, health risks

The research defines derivatives as private contracts, with future rights and obligations imposed on all parties, used to hedge or transfer risk, which derives value from an underlying asset price or index, which asset price or index may take on various forms. The nature of derivatives is that the instruments are intended to be risk management tools. The objectives of derivatives is either to hedge a risk, or to speculate. Derivatives may be classified by the manner in which they are traded, either over the counter (OTC) or on exchange. Alternatively, derivatives may be classified on the basis of structure and mechanisms, i.e. forwards, futures, options or swaps. Risk and risk management are defined in the third chapter with the focus on merchant banking. The nature of risk is that it is inherent in all activities. The nature of risk management is that it aims to ensure that the risks faced by the merchant bank are managed on a daily basis. The objective of risk management is to ensure that losses are minimised and the appropriate level of risk is taken in order to maximise profits. Risk may be classified as operational, operations, market, systemic, credit and legal risk. A comprehensive discussion of credit risk is presented, as it pertains to the legal risk in derivatives in a merchant bank. This includes insolvency, set-off, netting, credit derivatives and collateral. Legal risk is defined as the risk of loss primarily caused by legal unenforceability (i.e. a defective transaction, for instance a contract), legal liability (i.e. a claim) or failure to take legal steps to protect assets (e.g. intellectual property). The nature of legal risk is that it is caused by jurisdictional and other cross-border factors, inadequate documentation, the behaviour of financial institutions, a lack of internal controls, financial innovation or the inherent uncertainty of the law. The objectives of legal risk management in derivatives is to avoid the direct and indirect costs associated with legal risk materialising. This includes reputational damage. Derivatives attract specific legal risks due to the complexity of the instruments as well as the constant innovation in the market. There remains some legal uncertainty regarding derivatives in terms of gaming, wagering and gambling, as well as insurance. The relationship between risk and derivatives is that due to the complexity and constant innovation associated with derivatives, there are some inherent risks to trading in derivatives. It is therefore important to ensure that there is a vested risk management culture in the derivatives trading environment. Chapter four gives an overview of derivatives legislation in foreign jurisdictions and in South Africa. The contractual and documentation issues are discussed with reference to ad hoc agreements, master agreements and ISDA agreements. The practical implementation issues of master agreements and ad hoc agreements are also discussed. The recommendations are that legal risk management be approached in a similar manner to credit, market and other risk disciplines. A legal risk management policy needs to be developed and implemented. The second recommendation is that a derivative to manage the legal risk in derivatives be developed. / Prof. P. Sutherland Dr. C. van der Bijl

An increasing number of studies have shown an inverse association between a personal history of cancer (PHC) and dementia/Alzheimer’s disease (AD), both in those using dementia/AD as the outcome or cancer as the outcome. This is the first study to examine this potential association in Japanese Americans; and to examine family history of cancer and its association with incident dementia. Also, the association between these two diseases in the parents of participants were analyzed. The Kame Project, conducted from 1992 through 2001 in King County, Washington was a population-based, prospective cohort study of older Japanese Americans. Conversion to incident dementia was observed throughout the follow-up period and diagnosed by standard criteria in a consensus conference. A PHC did not have a significant association with the development of dementia. Differences between this study and those conducted previously showing an inverse association between cancer and dementia or AD included a lower age of the present cohort, race/ethnicity, focus on all-cause dementia vs. AD and adjustment for the competing risk of death. A family history of cancer was inversely associated with the development of dementia. There were statistically significant trends for a dose-response association between the numbers of affected relatives with cancer and risk for dementia. The findings are most likely explained by an inverse genetic association between cancer and dementia. Older Japanese Americans (the parents) with a history of cancer were nearly 2.5 times less likely to have a history of dementia than those without a cancer history.

Dans un contexte économique marqué par la saturation des marchés et l’évolution perpétuelle de l’environnement, la pérennité des stratégies de différentiation classiques basées sur l’innovation de produit, ou la baisse des prix est de plus en plus affaiblie. Une nouvelle approche d’évolution pour les entreprises industrielles consiste à proposer une offre de service qui peut se substituer à l’offre de produit initialement proposée par l’entreprise, il s’agit de proposer un ensemble intégré de produits et de services sous la forme de système produit-service (PSS). L’utilisateur pourrait ainsi bénéficier de la disponibilité des produits pour répondre à ses besoins sans pour autant les posséder. Le développement de la transition vers ces offres de PSS au sein de l'industrie manufacturière représente un mouvement scientifique qualifié de «servitization of manufacturing» ou de servicisation. La servicisation constitue un enjeu majeur de gestion pour les décideurs des entreprises industrielles. Il s’agit d’une transition qui implique d’importants défis techniques, managériaux, et culturels. Son déploiement dans l’entreprise porte différents risques et confronte les décideurs à plusieurs problématiques décisionnelles. Ce travail de thèse propose alors un cadre méthodologique global permettant d’intégrer la prise en compte des risques décisionnels dans la gestion de la transition vers un modèle d’offre intégrée de PSS. Nous considérons alors la servicisation comme un processus décisionnel porteurs de risques, qui peuvent être caractérisés et diagnostiqué, dans l’objectif d’améliorer les capacités décisionnelles de l’entreprise. Ce cadre méthodologique est structuré autour des composantes de modélisation du processus décisionnel de servicisation (selon un formalisme inspiré du cadre de modélisation d’entreprise GRAI) et de modélisation des risques, il est composé de trois phases successives :La phase A nommée « l’exploration du processus de servicisation », son objectif étant de rendre une représentation formalisée du processus décisionnel de servicisation de l’entreprise industrielle étudiée selon un modèle décisionnel de référence que nous avons construit au préalable; La phase B nommée « l’évaluation et la caractérisation des risques décisionnels », où il s’agit de caractériser les risques décisionnels selon leurs domaines d’occurrence et d’effet, afin d’en déduire une évaluation de la criticité des risques potentiels portés par le processus; Et la phase C nommée « le diagnostic et la remédiation des risques décisionnels », sa finalité consiste à rendre une interprétation des résultats de diagnostic, afin de proposer des pistes d’action pour les décideurs de l’entreprise étudiée, dans l’objectif de leurs apporter une aide au processus décisionnel.Deux études de cas sur des PME industrielles ont permis d’illustrer ce travail de thèse. / The economic context marked by market saturation and constantly changing environment, the sustainability of traditional differentiation business strategies based on product innovation or decreased prices, is increasingly weakened. A new approach to development for industrial companies is to provide a service offering that can be substituted to product supply initially proposed by the company, it consists in offering an integrated product-service system (PSS). The user can thus benefit from the availability of products to meet his needs without owning them. The development of the transition to PSS within the manufacturing industry is a qualified scientific movement known as “servitization of manufacturing”.Servitization represents a major change for the management of industrial enterprises. This is a transition that involves significant challenges that can be: technical, managerial, and cultural. Its deployment in the enterprise carries different risks and confronts decision makers to several issues.This thesis proposes an overall methodological framework for integrating the consideration of decision risks in managing transition to an integrated PSS supply model. We consider servitization as a decision-making process carrying decisional risks that can be characterized and diagnosed with the purpose of improving decision-making capabilities of the business.This methodological framework is structured around the components of modeling servitization decision process (according to a formalism based on GRAI business modeling framework) and risk modeling; it is composed of three phases:Phase A named “explorating servitization process”, its purpose consists of making a formal representation of the industrial enterprise’s servitization decision-making process studied according to a decision-making reference model that we defined previously; Phase B named “evaluation and characterization of decisional risks” comes to characterize the decision risks according to their areas of occurrence and effects, in order to deduce a criticality assessment of potential risks carried by the process; And phase C named “diagnosis and remediation of decisional risks”, its purpose is to make an interpretation of diagnosis results and to propose a remedial plan to assist decision-makers in their decision making process. Two case studies on industrial SMEs are used to illustrate this thesis.