Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2015-05-12T13:20:16Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TA_71_Tharcylla_Clemente_DSc_Eng_Producao.pdf: 2789438 bytes, checksum: fb181973fce4635698ee95479c330e6b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-12T13:20:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TA_71_Tharcylla_Clemente_DSc_Eng_Producao.pdf: 2789438 bytes, checksum: fb181973fce4635698ee95479c330e6b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-09 / CNPq / O presente trabalho tem como foco as situações em que há apenas informações incompletas, ou parciais, sobre a importância dos critérios envolvidos em um contexto de decisão. Para o tratamento destas informações, são apresentadas metodologias de representação de pesos capazes de transformar a informação parcial em valores cardinais para a modelagem do problema de decisão. Portanto, o estudo se propõe a avaliar o desempenho de metodologias selecionadas para indicar a melhor performance para a estrutura do método PROMETHEE II, um método multicritério que utiliza a racionalidade não compensatória para a avaliação das alternativas. Para o estudo, foram analisadas as contribuições dos EW (Equal Weights), RS (Rank-Sum), RR (Reciprocal of the Rank) e ROC (Rank-Order Centroide), sobre diferentes estruturas de decisão, para indicar a metodologia que melhor responda à estrutura do método multicritério selecionado. Para isto, foi realizado um experimento baseado em simulação comparativa capaz de identificar as contribuições das metodologias através de medidas de avaliação sobre a problemática de seleção de uma alternativa e sobre a problemática de ordenação do conjunto de alternativas. As medidas utilizadas apresentaram contribuições significativas e os resultados do experimento evidenciaram a eficiência do ROC para a representação de pesos substitutos, quando aplicado o método PROMETHEE II. No entanto, os resultados obtidos oferecem uma hierarquia quanto ao desempenho das metodologias estudadas: ROC > RR > RS > EW. Pela conformidade da representação dos pesos ROC na modelagem multicritério, foi considerada a oportunidade da apresentação do método PROMETHEE-ROC, eficiente para o tratamento de problemas de decisão complexos em que apenas a informação ordinal sobre os pesos é utilizada para indicar as preferências do decisor. Ainda, a aplicação do PROMETHEE-ROC foi utilizada para o tratamento do problema de avaliação de tecnologias críticas para a geração de energia elétrica. Os resultados da aplicação para este contexto sugerem vantagens para o planejamento e desenvolvimento de organizações em diversos setores produtivos. Ainda, o estudo promove a apresentação de uma ferramenta computacional de auxílio ao processo decisório com base no PROMETHEE-ROC, com especificações funcionais e de usabilidade para assegurar sua aplicação em diferentes contextos organizacionais.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-12T15:56:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 arquivo2790_1.pdf: 2753254 bytes, checksum: 58c415938566a69e881ed3b2c5347301 (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / O Sistema GPS permite que objetos móveis possuam a funcionalidade de obter sua posição espaço-temporal a todo instante. Esta funcionalidade, recentemente requerida pelos mais diversos tipos de aplicações computacionais, tem gerado uma enorme quantidade de dados espaciais brutos sobre trajetórias, criando grandes bancos de dados espaço-temporais. Estão em curso projetos e pesquisas direcionados para o gerenciamento deste novo tipo de dados, e para a implementação de técnicas de análises apropriadas para a extração de conhecimento sobre trajetórias. Este trabalho propõe um novo método para se adicionar semântica às trajetórias, fundamentando-se na variação temporal da direção do objeto móvel, com a finalidade de gerar agrupamentos que representem locais de interesse no contexto da atividade na qual o objeto móvel se encontra inserido. Com a finalidade de validar o método proposto, trajetórias reais de barcos pesqueiros de atuns, obtidas pelo Programa Nacional de Rastreamento de Embarcações Pesqueiras por Satélite (PREPS), foram processadas pela extensão espacial do software Weka, o qual foi estendido para incorporar as funcionalidades principais do nosso método proposto, denominado de DB-SMoT (Stops and Moves de Trajetórias Baseado na Direção). Os resultados experimentais foram avaliados por meio da análise ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic). No espaço ROC o método DB-SMoT foi comparado com outro método existente, chamado CB-SMoT (Clustering-Based Stops and Moves of Trajectories), que se baseia na variação da velocidade do objeto móvel para incorporação de semântica às trajetórias. Em experimentos com três trajetórias, o método proposto teve um desempenho superior ao CB-SMoT com relação à identificação de áreas de interesse em trajetórias

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-12T18:28:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 arquivo3535_1.pdf: 4497210 bytes, checksum: aa2e672b4d17f24b8c8446cc122032b6 (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / A hipomelanose macular progressiva é uma dermatose caracterizada por máculas hipocrômicas localizadas principalmente em tronco, que tendem a confluir na linha média. Em pacientes melanodérmicos, as lesões contrastam com a pele normal prejudicando a auto-estima dos pacientes. Sua etiologia permanece especulativa, sendo sugerida a participação do Propionibacterium acnes, um membro da flora cutânea normal. Objetivo: Avaliar a presença do Propionibacterium acnes na pele lesional e não lesional de pacientes com hipomelanose macular progressiva, por meio da reação em cadeia da polimerase em tempo real quantitativa e cultura bacteriológica de fragmento de pele e, determinar o ponto de corte para o número de cópias de genoma de Propionibacterium acnes, como marcador de sua positividade na pele lesional de pacientes com hipomelanose macular progressiva, utilizando a reação em cadeia da polimerase em tempo real quantitativa e considerando a cultura como padrão-ouro. Pacientes e Métodos: Estudo exploratório, observacional com grupo de comparação foi realizado envolvendo 36 pacientes, atendidos nos ambulatórios de dermatologia do Hospital Universitário Oswaldo Cruz, Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil, entre março e maio de 2008. Todos os pacientes foram submetidos a exame sob luz de Wood, pesquisa micológica e biópsias de pele lesional e não lesional do dorso. Os fragmentos de biópsia de pele foram submetidos a exame histopatológico, cultura bacteriológica e reação em cadeia da polimerase em tempo real quantitativa, utilizando oligoiniciadores específicos para a região 16S do RNA ribossomal do Propionibacterium acnes. A pele lesional foi comparada a não lesional quanto à positividade da reação em cadeia da polimerase em tempo real quantitativa e da cultura, considerada padrão-ouro. Com o programa Statistical Package for Social Sciences, versão 12.0, procedeu-se à determinação de associação com os testes de Wilcoxon e de McNemar, em nível de significância de 0,05, e do ponto de corte com a curva ROC para valores máximos. Resultados: Houve predomínio significante do Propionibacterium acnes na pele lesional, comparada com a pele não lesional (p<0,001), demonstrado por cultura bacteriológica e reação em cadeia da polimerase em tempo real quantitativa. O ponto de corte para o número de cópias de genoma de Propionibacterium acnes como marcador de sua positividade na pele lesional de pacientes com hipomelanose macular progressiva igualou-se a 1.333, com sensibilidade de 87,9% e especificidade de 100,0%. Conclusão: Apesar do Propionibacterium acnes ser um saprófita do folículo pilossebáceo, ele esta mais presente em pele lesional dos pacientes com hipomelanose macular progressiva, sugerindo sua participação no desenvolvimento dessa dermatose

This research project aimed to develop a condition monitoring system for the final production quality of pharmaceutical tablets and detection capping and lamination during powder compression process using the acoustic emission (AE) method. Pharmaceutical tablet manufacturers obliged by regulatory bodies to test the tablet's physical properties such as hardness, dissolution and disintegration before the tablets are released to the market. Most of the existing methods and techniques for testing and monitoring these tablet's properties are performed at the tablet post-compression stage. Furthermore, these tests are destructive in nature. Early experimental investigations revealed that the AE energy that is generated during powder compression is directly proportional to the peak force that is required to crush the tablet, i. e. crushing strength. Further laboratory and industrial experimental investigation have been conducted to study the relationship between the AE signals and the compression conditions. Traditional AE signal features such as energy, count, peak amplitude, average signal level, event duration and rise time were recorded. AE data analysis with the aid of advanced classification algorithm, fuzzy C-mean clustering showed that the AE energy is a very useful parameter in tablet condition monitoring. It was found that the AE energy that is generated during powder compression is sensitive to the process and is directly proportional to the compression speed, particle size, homogeneity of mixture and the amount of material present. Also this AE signal is dependent upon the type of material used as the tablet filler. Acoustic emission has been shown to be a useful technique for characterising some of the complex physical changes which occur during tabletting. Capping and lamination are serious problems that are encountered during tabletting. A capped or laminated tablet is one which no longer retains its mechanical integrity and exhibit low strength characteristics. Capping and lamination can be caused by a number of factors such as excessive pressure, insufficient binder in the granules and poor material flowabilities. However, capping and lamination can also occur randomly and they are also dependent upon the material used in tabletting. It was possible to identify a capped or laminated tablet by monitoring the AE energy level during continuous on-line monitoring of tabletting. Capped tablets indicated by low level of AE energy. The proposed condition monitoring system aimed to set the AE energy threshold that could discriminate between capped and non-capped tablets. This was based upon statistical distributions of the AE energy values for both the capped and non-capped tablets. The system aims to minimise the rate of false alarms (indication of capping when in reality capping has not occurred) and the rate of missed detection (an indication of non capping, when in reality capping has occurred). A novel approach that employs both the AE method and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was proposed for the on-line detection of capping and lamination during tabletting. The proposed system employs AE energy as the discriminating parameter to detect between capped and non-capped tablets. The ROC curve was constructed from the area under the two distributions of both capped and non-capped tablet. This curve shows a trade-off between the probabilities of true detection rate and false alarm rate for capped and non-capped tablet. A two-graph receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was presented as a modification of the original ROC curve to enable an operator to directly select the desired energy threshold for tablet monitoring. This plot shows the ROC co-ordinate as a function of the threshold value over the entire threshold (AE energy) range for all test outcomes. An alternative way of deciding a threshold based on the slope of the ROC curve was also developed. The slope of the ROC curve represents the optimal operating point on the curve. It depends upon the penalties cost of capping and the prevalence of capping. Sets of guidelines have been outlined for decision making i.e. threshold setting. These guidelines take into account both the prevalence of capping in manufacturing and the cost associated with various outcomes of tablet formation. The proposed condition monitoring system also relates AE monitoring to non-AE measurement as it enable an operator predicting tablet hardness and disintegration form the AE energy, a relationship which was established in this research.

Introduction: Assessment of heat strain is an alternative approach to assessing heat stress exposures. Two common measures of heat strain are body core temperature (TC) and heart rate (HR). In this study TC was assessed by rectal temperature (Tre). Physiological Strain Index (PSI) was developed to combine both Tre and HR into one metric. Data collected from progressive heat stress trials were used to (1) demonstrate that PSI can distinguish between Sustainable and Unsustainable heat stress; (2) suggest values for PSI that demonstrate a sustainable level of heat stress; and (3) determine if clothing or metabolic rate were effect modifiers. Methods: Two previous progressive heat stress studies included 494 trials with 988 pairs of Sustainable and Unsustainable exposures over a range of relative humidity (rh), metabolic rates (M) and clothing using 29 participants. To assess the discrimination ability of PSI, conditional logistic regression and logistic regression were used. The accuracy of PSI was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (ROC). Results: The present study found that primary (Tre, HR, and Tsk) and derived (PSI and ΔTre-sk) HSMs can accurately predict Unsustainable heat stress exposures based on AUCs that ranged from 0.73 to 0.86. Skin temperature had the highest AUC (0.86) with PSI in the mid-range (0.79). The values of the HSMs associated with a predicted probability of 0.25 were considered as screening values (PSI < 2.6, ΔTre-sk > 1.9 °C, Tre < 37.5, HR < 109, and Tsk < 35.8). The value of using any one of these individual indicators is that they act as a screening tool to decide if an exposure assessment is needed. Metabolic rate was found to be a confounder for all the HSMs except for RTsk. It was not statistically significant for HSMs derived models (PSI and ΔTre-sk). And its effect modification was not significant in any model. Conclusions: Based on the ROC curve, PSI can accurately predict Unsustainable heat stress exposures (AUC 0.79). HR alone has a similar capacity to distinguish Unsustainable exposures (AUC 0.78) under relatively constant exposure (metabolic rate and environment) for an hour or so. Screening limits with high sensitivity, however, have low thresholds. This limits the utility of these heat strain metrics. To the extent that the observed strain is low, there is good evidence that the exposure is Sustainable.

This paper aims to find macroeconomic and financial variables with ability to predict financial crises. A dataset covering 17 developed countries over the period 1870-2013 have been investigated using a logit model. We found commonly used macroeconomic variables such as terms of trade and consumption to be strong predictors within our sample. Whereas private debt and house prices are frequently found to be strong predictors, we found loans to business to be at least as good in predicting financial crises. Multivariate models are constructed as warning systems and used to analyze Sweden from 1975 up until 2016. The most efficient warning system give a strong signal before the first and moderate signal before the second crisis. In extension, regarding today’s climate the warning system provides no signal, suggesting low current risk. Policy makers can benefit from observing certain variables that are found significant in this study to improve financial stability and reduce socio-economic costs.

L'apport des biomarqueurs aux urgences est bien documenté. Depuis l'apparition de la myoglobine et de la troponine pour le diagnostic de syndrome coronaire aigu (SCA), de multiples marqueurs ont été développés pour l'aide au diagnostic de multiples pathologies aux urgences. Certains biomarqueurs sont même intégrés à la définition de syndromes ou pathologies comme le SCA avec la troponine, ou le sepsis sévère avec le lactate. Nous abordons dans ce travail l'approche multimarqueurs, qui consiste à combiner le dosage de plusieurs biomarqueurs pour améliorer les performances diagnostiques ou pronostiques. L'hypothèse de base de ce travail est que l'association d'un marqueur sensible, généraliste, avec un marqueur spécifique de pathologie ou de dysfonction d'organe, permettrait d'améliorer la prise en charge diagnostique ou la stratification du risque aux urgences. On illustre cette approche dans trois cas particuliers : la prédiction du sepsis sévère, le diagnostic du syndrome coronaire aigu, et l'évaluation du risque après une crise convulsive. Plusieurs méthodes sont envisagées pour combiner plusieurs biomarqueurs, et on développera ici la détermination de la meilleure combinaison linéaire pour obtenir une discrimination optimale. / The added value of biomarkers in the emergency settings is well reported, in various pathologies. Since the burst of myoglobin and troponine for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI), various biomarkers have been developed and adopted for diagnostic purposes in different pathologies. Some of them are part of the very definition of specific syndrom or disease (MI with troponin, or severe sepsis with lactate). We present here the multimarker approach in the emergency department – a strategy that combines the results of several different biomarkers to enhance diagnostic or prognostic performances. We made the hypothesis that the association of a sensitive and generalist biomarker, with an organ or syndrome specific one, would result in better performances.We illustrate here this strategy in three particular cases: the prediction of severe sepsis, the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome, and the risk stratification after a convulsive seizure. Several methods are considered for the combination of biomarkers, and we will focus on the determination of the best linear combination.

Objetivo. O presente estudo tem como objetivo avaliar o estado nutricional de escolares de 7 a 10 anos de idade, matriculados em duas escolas públicas município de São Paulo. Métodos. Foram utilizadas medidas de: peso, estatura, circunferência braquial, cintura, pregas cutâneas, bioimpedância elétrica (BIA), e medidas derivadas (área gordurosa do braço, % de gordura, índice de massa corporal (IMC) e índice estatura/idade. O estado nutricional foi avaliado segundo percentil do IMC utilizando como referência o CDC (2000). A mediana das variáveis antropométricas, IMC e da composição corporal foram comparadas aos valores da mediana de outras populações de referência. Para comparação de métodos, curvas tgROC, estratégia de Bland e Altman e coeficiente de correlação foram utilizadas. Resultados. A prevalência de desnutrição, risco de sobrepeso e sobrepeso foram de 4,5, 15,3% and 11%, respectivamente. Os valores da mediana das variáveis antropométricas e da composição corporal foram maiores, em grande parte, quando comparado aos valores medianos de outras populações de referência. Os valores do percentual de gordura estimado por dois diferentes métodos (BIA e pregas cutâneas) não foram semelhantes. As pregas cutâneas apresentaram melhor desempenho do que a BIA para classificar risco de sobrepeso e sobrepeso segundo IMC. Circunferência da cintura e area gordurosa do braço mostraram bom desempenho para identificar riscos de doenças cardiovasculares. Conclusões. Os métodos utilizados mostraram que os escolares apresentaram alta reserva de gordura, indicando a necessidade de ações de intervenções para melhoria da saúde dos escolares. / Objctive. To assess the nutrional status of schoolchildren from 7 to 10 years of age. Methods. Cross-sectional study in two public schools in the southeastern region of the city of Sao Paulo. Weight, height, arm and waist circunference (WC), skinfold thickness (triceps and calf), bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and derived indices and measurements ( upper arm and fat area (AFA), percentage of the bofy fat (% BF), body mass index (BMI) and height to age index were used. The nutritional status was assessed by BMI percentile using CDC 2000 curve. The data was presented in tables and graphics; comparisons were carried out by 95% confidence intervals, median values and Bland and Altman analysis. The performamces of measures of body composition to identify inadequate nutritional status and cut-off values were studied based on ROC and TGROC curves. Results. The foolowing prevalences were observed: underweight, 4.5%, risk of overweight, 15.3% and overweight 11.0%. The median of the anthropometric measurements and body composition were greater than in previous studies. The percentage of fat values depends on the method used for its estimation. Skinfold thickness presents better performance than BIA ti identify excess of weight when BMI was taken as a reference method. WC and AFA showed good performance to identify risk of cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions. Schoolchildren from 7 to 10 years of age present high levels of body fat reserve. These conditions indicate the need for health interventions.

The current paper is aimed at providing an overview of the current state of research regarding the potential of linking series of crimes to single offenders through repeated modus operandi behaviors. A systematic literature review was conducted to document findings from previous evaluation research as to the predictive accuracy of crime linkage specific to residential burglary. The findings indicate that predictions of linked burglaries can be made with moderate to high predictive accuracy. In order to get an understanding of the extent to which residential burglary offenders repeat their crime scene behaviors, the findings are discussed in relation to the criminological theories Routine activities theory and the Rational Choice perspective. Future research is suggested.

The South African Weather Service rainfall seasonal forecasts are verified for the period of January-February-March to October-November-December 1998-2004. These forecasts are compiled using different models from different institutions. Probability seasonal forecasts can be evaluated using different skill measures, but in this study the Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS), Reliability Diagram (RD) and Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) are used. The RPSS is presented in the form of maps whereas the RD and ROC are analyses are presented in the form of graphs. The aim of the study is to present skill estimates of operational seasonal forecasts issued at South African Weather Service A limited number of forecasts show positive RPSS value throughout the validation period. From RD and ROC analysis, there is no skill in predicting the normal category as compared to below-normal and above-normal categories. Notwithstanding, the frequency diagrams show that the normal category was often given a large weight in the operational forecasts. The value of verifying seasonal forecast accuracy from the user’s perspective is important. The understanding of seasonal forecast performance helps decision makers to determine when and how to respond to expected climate anomalies. Therefore the frequent update of the seasonal forecast verification is important in order to help Users make better decisions. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / Unrestricted