Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:22:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Luciana Pereira de Araujo.pdf: 14609515 bytes, checksum: 389ecae83749400f1c4b8fe3e60a820a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The multidisciplinary treatment in health area is the supporting to patients who need care of different health professionals. During this treatment the professionals should communicate and collaborate to solve the patient diseases. In a local study in the public health at Blumenau city, we have observed that there is a lack of communication and collaboration among these professionals. This lack of communication affects the multidisciplinary treatment. This problem occurs due to different geographic position in doctors offices and due to different availability of each professional. In this context, this work has realized an action research involving the Elderly Care Center of Blumenau city to help the development of a system that allows multidisciplinary treatment. Blumenau has a health system called PRONTO. However, this system does not allow the collaboration among health professionals during the healthcare. Thus, this work includes the multidisciplinary treatment in the actual system and allows the collaboration among the health professionals. We used the participatory design method to design the multidisciplinary treatment and its interface, in order to involve the professionals in the development. The Scenario Based Evaluation was used to evaluate the developed system. This method allows to identify the important scenarios to perform the tasks. The design, development and evaluation of multidisciplinary treatment occurred in four steps of action research. We conclude that the proposed system allows the multidisciplinary treatment in collaborative way. The system also decreased the lack of communication and collaboration problems. / O tratamento multidisciplinar na área da saúde é o tratamento prestado a pacientes que dependem da atenção de profissionais de diferentes áreas. Durante este tratamento, os profissionais devem se comunicar e colaborar para solucionar o problema do paciente. Em estudos realizados na rede pública da cidade de Blumenau, observou-se que existe falta de comunicação e colaboração entre estes profissionais prejudicando o atendimento multidisciplinar. O problema ocorre principalmente devido aos diferentes locais de trabalho e diferentes horários de atendimento destes profissionais de saúde. Nesse contexto, este trabalho realizou uma pesquisa-ação envolvendo o Centro de Saúde do Idoso da cidade de Blumenau, para auxiliar na construção de um sistema que permita o tratamento multidisciplinar. Blumenau possui um sistema de saúde denominado PRONTO, porém ele não permite a colaboração entre os profissionais de saúde durante o tratamento de um paciente. Sendo assim, o trabalho pretende incluir o atendimento multidisciplinar no sistema atual permitindo a colaboração entre esses profissionais. O método de design participativo foi utilizado para a construção do módulo multidisciplinar e de sua interface, com intuito de envolver os profissionais em sua construção e identificar as tarefas a serem realizadas. O método Scenario Based Evaluation foi utilizado para avaliar o sistema. Este método permite a identificação de cenários importantes para a realização das tarefas dos profissionais. A construção e avaliação do atendimento multidisciplinar desenvolvido ocorreu dentro de quatro ciclos de pesquisa-ação. Após o término da pesquisa-ação, podese concluir que as funcionalidades projetadas permitem o atendimento multidisciplinar de forma colaborativa com uma ferramenta computacional, reduzindo os problemas referentes à falta de comunicação e de colaboração entre os profissionais de saúde.

Global warming is an issue that affects the entire world. The aviation industry accounts for around three percent of global emissions, and actions are needed to help steer the industry towards a sustainable transition with new technologies and alternative aviation fuels to reduce emissions. There are options today for passengers to compensate flight emissions through carbon offsetting. The purpose of this report is to investigate how the aviation and carbon offset industries are likely to develop in the future in order to provide knowledge that an air travel comparison site can use to adapt its carbon offset alternative to new market conditions. The empirical data in this study consist of interviews with stakeholders in the aviation and carbon offset industries as well as a politician. Industrial reports and a literature review were used in combination with the empirical data and analyzed with theories such as industrial dynamics, network innovation and scenario analysis to result in a possible future scenario of the industries. Further, conclusions with necessary actions in order to develop a more sustainable aviation industry and how carbon offsetting can be renewed due to a sustainable aviation transition. Additionally, managerial implications for an air travel comparison site followed with suggestions on how they can contribute to this transition. The conclusions from this study are to develop existing networks and establish new ones to share knowledge from many different stakeholders in the industry and use their capabilities to propose regulatory changes as well as prepare the industry for sustainable solutions in the future. Networks should also use their collective power to lobby for changes that will drive the transition towards a more sustainable aviation industry forward. The broad expertise that these networks possess can be used to provide customers with knowledge to make the option to carbon offset a flight more attractive. It is important that knowledge and marketing of carbon offsetting is transparent to inform customers of its effects on the climate. Biofuels and electrified aircrafts are sustainable solutions more suitable for the future due to the high price of biofuels and electrified aircrafts not ready to replace regular jet-aircrafts. Thus, carbon offsetting is the best option to reduce net emissions from a flight today. The short-term recommendations are for an air travel comparison site to be involved in the transition towards more sustainable aviation fuel by offering customers the option to purchase biofuel together with or as an alternative to carbon offset when booking a flight. An air travel comparison should also support organizations and firms working with sustainable solutions such as introduction of electrified aircrafts, through partnerships or investments to help steer the industry in a sustainable direction. The long-term recommendation for an air travel comparison site is to continuously stay updated with the latest research and knowledge expertise within the industry to adapt its carbon offset alternative to new conditions in the future. This study is to be considered as an informational foundation for an air travel comparison site to adapt its carbon offset alternative to a dynamic aviation industry. However, the study does not include empirical data from all stakeholders within the aviation industry hence the information used in this study is limited. / Global uppvärmning är ett aktuellt problem som påverkar hela världen. Flygindustrin står för runt tre procent av de globala utsläppen och åtgärder behövs för att styra industrin mot en hållbar utveckling med ny teknologi och alternativa flygbränsle för att minska utsläppen. Idag finns det möjlighet för passagerare att kompensera sina flygutsläpp genom klimatkompensation. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur flyg- samt klimatkompensationsindustrin troligtvis kommer att utvecklas i framtiden och hur företag inom flygindustrin kan tillämpa den kunskapen för att påverka utvecklingen mot en mer hållbar flygindustri. Med hjälp av kunskapen ska klimatkompensationsalternativ kunna anpassas utefter dem nya förutsättningarna i framtiden. Den empiriska data för denna studie består av intervjuer med intressenter från flyg- och klimatkompensationsbranscherna samt en politiker. Industrirapporter och en litteraturrecension har använts i kombination med empiriska data tillsammans med teorier såsom industriell dynamik, nätverksinnovation och scenario analys som resulterat i ett troligt framtidsscenario för industrierna. Vidare följer en slutsats samt ledningsliga implikationer och rekommendationer för en flygprisjämförelsesajt. Slutsatserna från denna studie är att utveckla redan befintliga samt etablera nya nätverk för att dela kunskap från många olika intressenter inom flygindustrin och använda sig av deras förmågor för att föreslå ändringar i lagstiftningen samt förbereda flygindustrin för hållbara lösningar i framtiden. Nätverk bör också använda deras samlade makt till att lobba för beslut som driver utvecklingen av en mer hållbar flygindustri framåt. Den breda expertisen som dessa nätverk besitter kan användas för att informera och förse kunder med kunskap om fördelarna med klimatkompensation och öka intresset för att klimatkompensera en flygresa. Marknadsföring och information om klimatkompensation behöver vara transparent för att kunder ska förstå effekterna det har på klimatet. Biobränslen och elektrifierade flyg är hållbara lösningar som är mer troliga för framtiden då priset på biobränslen är väldigt högt idag och elektrifierade flyg är långt ifrån redo att ersätta dagens jet-flyg. Därmed är klimatkompensation det bästa alternativet för att reducera nettoutsläpp idag. Kortsiktiga rekommendationer för en prisjämförelsesite är att vara involverande i övergången till mer hållbara bränslen genom att erbjuda kunder ett alternativ till att köpa biobränsle i kombination med att klimatkompensera. För att styra industrin i en mer hållbar riktning bör en flygprisjämförelsesite ge stöd i form av investeringar och samarbeten med organisationer och företag som arbetar med hållbara framtidslösningar som exempelvis utveckling av elektriska flygplan. Långsiktiga lösningar är att kontinuerligt hålla sig uppdaterade med den senaste forskningen och kunskapsexpertisen inom industrin för att anpassa sitt klimatkompensationsalternativ i framtiden. Denna studie ska betraktas som en informell grund för företag inom flygindustrin att påverka en övergång till en mer hållbar flygindustri samt utveckla sitt klimatkompensationsalternativ i framtiden. Studien innehåller ej empiriska data från alla intressenter inom flygbranschen och skall därför ses som begränsad.

The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) will be a major step towards controlled energy fusion in tokamaks. Operation of the hot confined plasma inside the tokamak will have to be optimized and simulations will have to prove that each pulse conducted is feasible under the operational limits of the reactor. For such purpose a Pulse Design Simulator is developed at ITER. This workflow lacks a transport model to simulate the dynamics of the plasma caused by micro-instabilities driven by turbulences. The purpose of this thesis is the adaptation of such model into the Integrated Modelling and Analysis Suite (IMAS), namely mapping the inputs and outputs of an existing code for its integration to the workflow. This work presents a fast 1D core transport code capable of simulating the evolution of the poloidal flux, the temperature evolution of both ions and electrons and the particle density transport. The model is coupled to a neural network regression of the transport model QuaLiKiz for the computation of first-principle based turbulent heat and particle transport coefficients. / Internationella Termonukleära Experimentella Reaktorn (ITER) kommer att vara ett stort steg mot kontrollerad energifusion i tokamaker. Driften av det varma, instängda plasmaet inne i tokamaken måste optimeras, och simuleringar måste bevisa att varje pulsskötning är genomförbar inom reaktorns driftgränser. För detta ändamål utvecklas en pulsdessignsimulator vid ITER. Denna arbetsflöde saknar en transportmodell för att simulera plasmaets dynamik orsakad av mikroinstabiliteter drivna av turbulenser. Syftet med denna avhandling är anpassningen av en sådan modell till Integrated Modelling and Analysis Suite (IMAS), nämligen att kartlägga in- och utdata av en befintlig kod för dess integration i arbetsflödet. Denna arbete presenterar en snabb 1D-kärntransportkod som kan simulera utvecklingen av den poloidala flödet, temperaturutvecklingen för både joner och elektroner samt partikeltäthetstransporten. Modellen är kopplad till en neural nätverksregression av transportmodellen QuaLiKiz för beräkning av första principbaserade turbulenta värme- och partikeltransportkoefficienter.

Portfolio allocation theories have been studied and used ever since the mid 20th century. Nevertheless, many investors still rely on personal expertise and information gathered from the market when building their investment portfolios. The purpose of this master’s thesis is to examine how personal preferences and expertise perform compared to mathematical portfolio alloca- tion theories and how the risk between these di↵erent strategies di↵er. Using two portfolio allocation theories, the Black-Litterman model and mod- ern portfolio theory (Markowitz), a portfolio managed by the investment firm Placerum Kapitalf ̈orvaltning in Ume ̊a will be compared and challenged to investigate which strategy gives the best risk adjusted return. Using scenario modelling, the portfolios can be compared using both historical data and future forecasted scenarios to analyze the past, present and future of the allocation theories and Placerum’s investment strategy. The first allocation theory, the Black-Litterman model, combines historical information from the market with views and preferences of the investor to select the optimal allocations derived from return and volatility. The second allocation theory, the modern portfolio theory (Markowitz), only uses histori- cal data to derive correlations and returns which are then used to select the optimal allocations. By analysing several risk measures applied on the portfolios historical and forecasted data as well as comparing the performance of the portfolios, it is shown that the investment strategy used at Placerum succeeds with its intentions to achieve relatively high return while reducing the risk. However, the portfolios given using the two allocation theories results in higher potential returns but at the cost of taking on a higher risk. Comparing the two studied allocation theories, it is shown that when using the Black-Litterman model with the assumptions and views defined in this project, modern allocation theory actually beats it in terms of potential return as well as in terms of risk adjusted return, even though its underlying theory is much simpler.

This thesis is about simulations in professional education and what they mean for developing professional knowing. When educating new police officers, using simulations is an integral part of the educational program. A starting point for the studies in this thesis was that not only the scenario but also the preparation and the debriefing, i.e. the situated activities, must be included. Another starting point was that activities and the individuals cannot be studied separately; both have to be included in the analyses. Two simulations, which were part of the Swedish police education program were studied. The approach was explorative and the methods used to collect data were observations, video-observations, interviews and surveys. The unit of analysis focused how students acted in and how they made sense of the simulation activities. The analytical process was influenced by a sociocultural and dialogical framework, in which learning is seen as a social activity. The thesis showed that using simulation in professional education is a complex endeavor in which the social aspects of simulating have to be acknowledged. The analyses showed that the situated activities of the simulation have to be linked to each other in way that enables the participants to; first, produce a situation with authenticity and second, to use previous experiences and coordinate them with new ones from the simulation in order to create good conditions for learning. This means acknowledging that the stance of a simulation needs to be longer than just the actual simulation. How they are embedded in the education program and how gaps in students knowing are to be bridged after the simulation, need to be considered. The main implication of the results is that the use of simulations in professional education require a specific simulation pedagogy. Some foundations of this are outlined and include; the fact that a simulated situation is a hybrid and never a mirror of a professional situation and also includes creating simulation competence among both teachers and students. This includes learning the “gaming rules” of simulating such as how to act in different roles, how to produce authenticity, what is to be included and what is to be ignored in order to make the scenario work. Simulation pedagogy also has to acknowledge that focus needs to be on how to support the participants’ learning and not assume that there is a direct connection between participation and learning. If all of these issues are considered in the design, the potential of simulations for developing professional knowing can be utilized. To conclude, this thesis shows that in the detailed study of scenarios, preparation and follow-up are important and draw attention to aspects that are central for understanding the conditions for learning in simulations.

The precision of formal specifications allows us to prove program correctness. Even if formal methods are not used throughout the software project, formalisation improves our understanding of the problem. Formal specifications are amenable to automated analysis and consistency checking. However using them is challenging. Customers do not understand formal notations. Specifiers have difficulty tackling large problems. Once systems are built, formal specifications quickly become outdated during software maintenance. A method of developing formal specifications using concrete scenarios is proposed to tackle the disadvantages just mentioned. A concrete scenario describes system behaviour with successive steps. The pre- and post-states of scenario steps are expressed with actual data rather than variables. Concrete scenarios are expressed in a natural language or formal notation. They increase customer involvement in the creation of formal specifications. Scenarios may be ranked by priorities allowing specifiers to focus on a small part of the system. Formal specifications are constructed incrementally. New requirements are also captured in concrete scenarios which guide the modification of formal specifications. On one hand, concrete scenarios assist the creation and maintenance of formal specifications. On the other hand, they facilitate program correctness proofs without using conventional formal specifications. This is achieved by adding implementation details to customer scenarios. The resulting developer scenarios, encapsulating decisions of data structures and algorithms, are generalised to operation schemas. With the implementation details, the schemas written in formal notations are programs rather than specifications.

We consider the research problem of quantitative support for decision making in supply chain network design (SCND). We first identify the requirements for a comprehensive SCND as (i) a methodology to select uncertainties, (ii) a stochastic optimisation model, and (iii) an appropriate solution algorithm. We propose a process to select a manageable number of uncertainties to be included in a stochastic program for SCND. We develop a comprehensive two-stage stochastic program for SCND that includes uncertainty in demand, currency exchange rates, labour costs, productivity, supplier costs, and transport costs. Also, we consider conditional value at risk (CV@R) to explore the trade-off between risk and return. We use a scenario generator based on moment matching to represent the multivariate uncertainty. The resulting stochastic integer program is computationally challenging and we propose a novel iterative solution algorithm called adaptive scenario refinement (ASR) to process the problem. We describe the rationale underlying ASR, validate it for a set of benchmark problems, and discuss the benefits of the algorithm applied to our SCND problem. Finally, we demonstrate the benefits of the proposed model in a case study and show that multiple sources of uncertainty and risk are important to consider in the SCND. Whereas in the literature most research is on demand uncertainty, our study suggests that exchange rate uncertainty is more important for the choice of optimal supply chain strategies in international production networks. The SCND model and the use of the coherent downside risk measure in the stochastic program are innovative and novel; these and the ASR solution algorithm taken together make contributions to knowledge.

In this thesis we formulate a model for foreign exchange (FX) exposure management and multi-currency cash management taking into consideration random fluctuations of exchange rates and net revenues of a multinational firm (MNF). The central decision model used in this thesis is a scenario-based stochastic programming (SP) recourse model. A critical review of alternative scenario generation methods is given followed by analysis of some desirable properties of the scenario tree. The application of matching statistical moments of a probability distribution to generate a multiperiod scenario tree for our problem is described in detail. A four-stage SP decision model is formulated using the random parameter values. This model evaluates currency / cash flows hedging strategies, which provide rolling decisions on the size and timing of the forward positions. We compute an efficient frontier from which an investor can choose an optimal strategy according to his risk and return preferences. The flexibility of the SP model allows an investor to analyse alternative risk-return trading strategies. The model decisions are investigated by making comparisons with decisions based purely on the expected value problem. The investigation shows that there is a considerable improvement to the "spot only" strategy and provides insight into how these decisions are made. The contributions of the thesis are summarised below. (i) The FX forward scenario trees are derived using an arbitrage-free pricing strategy and is in line with modem principles of finance. (ii) Use of the SP model and forward contracts as a tool for hedging decisions is novel. (iii) In particular smoothing of the effects in exchange rates and the smoothing of account receivables are examples of innovative modelling approaches for FX management.

This scenario study focused on potential future demand of critical metals if the world strives for equitable use of technologies in the world in 2050. Smartphones and other electronics are increasing in the world and the consumption rate is high as the use-life generally are short. Technologies moving away from fossil fuels have increased in recent years and include solar cells and wind power in the energy sector and electric vehicles in the transportation sector. All these growing technologies are dependent on some specific metals. In some technological areas, the potential future use of specific metals have the risk to become critically scarce, as the use of these technologies increase. These technologies and their use of these potentially critical metals have been investigated in this scenario study, assuming equitable technology distribution in 2050. For metals which in the scenario study indicate critical supply, potential strategies have been screened. Rare earth elements have played a huge role improving wind turbines due to their use of neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Indium and tellurium are used to produce the new generation of solar cells. Lithium is important in electric vehicles and smartphone batteries. These potentially scarce metals might have the possibility to be substituted with other metals that can serve as a good enough substitution in these application. If these metals are substituted it is important that the substitution materials will not in themselves become critical. Substituting one critical metal with another might just result in the same unsustainable problems. These potentially scarce metals are also connected to some environmental consequences as demand is rapidly growing and mining is the main source for these metals. Another problem is that recycling rates are low and these metals often end up in landfills where they pose a risk of leaching hazardous or harmful substances. This scenario study showed supply limitations for the seven metals that were included. The outcome of this study resulted in the following conclusions:  Indium and tellurium have a risk to become extremely critical where neither reduced material intensity nor recycling can decrease demand enough.  Lithium demand Risks to become too high to support with current reserves and as material intensity is likely to increase, and recycling only can contribute with small shares in 2050, substitution is the preferable solution to the lithium scarcity.  Neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium demands can be reduced through reduced material intensity, but as they are dependent on other REEs the availability of these four metals will depend on the demand for other REEs  Materials under development as substitutions have to be studied regarding their availability and price sensitivity. Substituting one critical metal with another may result in similar problems for a new metal instead of a long-term solution. / <p>2017-05-02</p>

This dissertation explores the relationship between scenario planning and the building of new social capital in addressing potential or actually perceived environmental turbulence. In particular, the research explores how, when environments around organizations risk unpredictable and disruptive change, people in those organizations can act to develop new social capital that contributes to their survival. In this research, I present scenario planning as a mechanism for organizations to build this new social capital. Scholars have suggested that certain forms of social capital are more conducive to being directly built than others. My research indicates that scenario planning entails aspects which, in effect, are direct investments in creating the cognitive social capital resources that make new sense of turbulence. These resources are created with the scenario process articulating new conceptual framings and possibilities for the future, thereby re-conceptualizing the situation. The resources enable new shared meanings to be created - directly building the cognitive dimension of new social capital while enabling the more researched structural and relational dimensions to be built as by-products. This dissertation also suggests that social capital can be built more quickly than researchers have previously indicated. By directly investing in the creation of new shared meanings, scenario planning can build new social capital faster than the centuries that Putnam and generations that Emery and Trist suggested were needed. The dissertation’s contribution to the social capital literature is to suggest how new social capital, by foregrounding the cognitive dimension, can be purposefully and more quickly built to address turbulent conditions. The contribution to the scenario planning literature is to propose a scholarly explanation for how scenario planning builds new social capital, suggested in practice but not yet theorized, and in so doing, provide practitioners with a new purpose to strengthen the return on investments these efforts require.