The assessment of change in river systems requires reference conditions. However, most large navigable waterways in the United States and elsewhere around the world have a wealth of archival data because of past engineering projects and flood control efforts. For example, in the United States, large quantities of archival data are available for the Mississippi River System which can be used to assess historical baseline conditions and change. Maps, charts, surveys, structure-history databases, and other quantitative measurements stretch back 100 to as much as ~200 years. The purpose of his dissertation was to develop a robust methodology from which to use these archival data to establish historic reference conditions in order to quantify and assess the causes of change in flood levels. Since the early 19th century, the Middle and Lower Mississippi River (MMR and LMR) have been intensively modified for flood protection and commercial navigation. In order to quantify the effects of levee expansion, channel modification, and land-cover change upon flood stages, a 1-D unsteady flow model was developed for multiple historical reference conditions ("retro-models") for three large study reaches (225-315 km each): one along the MMR and two reaches along the LMR. For each reference condition, four 1-D unsteady-flow models were developed. These models include a calibrated model of actual conditions and three "scenario" models: 1) a model with levees of the next time step, 2) a model with the channel geometry of the next time step, and 3) a model with floodplain roughness (i.e., land cover) of the next time step. Comparison of the model for actual conditions and the scenario models provide a quantitative assessment of levee expansion, channel modification, and land-cover change on stage. Comparison of the modeling results for this investigation showed significant changes in stage for equal discharges between each of the modeled time steps. Changes in stage for the three modeled reaches ranged from -3.1 to 4.4 m. The largest changes in flood stage were found along the MMR. The largest decreases in flood levels were found along the LMR between Obion and Memphis, TN. These results confirm previous hydrologic analyses, but show stage-changes as continuous longitudinal profile and not just at gaging stations. Scenario modeling suggests that the majority (38 to 70%) of the changes in flood stage on the LMR and MMR study reaches can be attributed to changes in channel geometry and hydraulic roughness. Levees were the next largest contributor to changes in flood stage. For time steps with significant levee expansion, these structures increase stage up to 1.0 m. Observed changes in floodplain land cover were associated with little (or none) of the increase in flood stage. These result show changes in channel geometry and roughness related to river engineering tools employed for the facilitation of navigation and flood conveyance are the principal drivers of historic changes in flood stages along the LMR and MMR. The results from the 1-D scenario model assessment suggest wing dikes may broadly affect flow conveyance in two ways: (1) through direct interaction with flow and (2) indirectly by their effects on channel geometry and roughness. Direct effects of wing dikes on flood stage were assessed by constructing two 2-D hydrodynamic models: (1) a calibrated model of actual conditions (i.e., with wing dikes) and (2) a scenario model without wing dikes, for a heavily modified reach of the MMR. Comparison of the model of actual conditions and model without wing dikes revealed that direct effects of wing dikes increase stage, modestly by only 0.1 to 0.5 m, depending on discharge and location. Wing dikes also were shown to increase and decrease channel velocities. Local increases in flow velocities of up to 0.4 m/s were found along portions of the main channel. Decreases in flow velocity by as much as -2.0 m/s were found along the edge of the channel within the wing dike fields. The direct effects of wing dikes on flow conveyance also were observed to decrease with an increase in flow, a result that runs contrary to the total cumulative effects of wing dikes observed empirically. These results suggest that the indirect effects are the likely cause of the historic decreased in flood flow conveyance and large-scale increases in flood stages along portions of the MMR.

No description available.

Portfolio allocation theories have been studied and used ever since the mid 20th century. Nevertheless, many investors still rely on personal expertise and information gathered from the market when building their investment portfolios. The purpose of this master’s thesis is to examine how personal preferences and expertise perform compared to mathematical portfolio alloca- tion theories and how the risk between these di↵erent strategies di↵er. Using two portfolio allocation theories, the Black-Litterman model and mod- ern portfolio theory (Markowitz), a portfolio managed by the investment firm Placerum Kapitalf ̈orvaltning in Ume ̊a will be compared and challenged to investigate which strategy gives the best risk adjusted return. Using scenario modelling, the portfolios can be compared using both historical data and future forecasted scenarios to analyze the past, present and future of the allocation theories and Placerum’s investment strategy. The first allocation theory, the Black-Litterman model, combines historical information from the market with views and preferences of the investor to select the optimal allocations derived from return and volatility. The second allocation theory, the modern portfolio theory (Markowitz), only uses histori- cal data to derive correlations and returns which are then used to select the optimal allocations. By analysing several risk measures applied on the portfolios historical and forecasted data as well as comparing the performance of the portfolios, it is shown that the investment strategy used at Placerum succeeds with its intentions to achieve relatively high return while reducing the risk. However, the portfolios given using the two allocation theories results in higher potential returns but at the cost of taking on a higher risk. Comparing the two studied allocation theories, it is shown that when using the Black-Litterman model with the assumptions and views defined in this project, modern allocation theory actually beats it in terms of potential return as well as in terms of risk adjusted return, even though its underlying theory is much simpler.

This work includes modelling of decarbonization scenarios at the scale of an urban area, providing policy insights and a methodology focusing on introducing district heating and maintaining the existing gas distribution network in a case study. With a focus on reducing gas consumption in the residential and tertiary sectors, the research integrates scenario developments giving a methodology to develop district heating, requiring a careful balance in selecting the optimal scale for city-wide analysis. The study assesses the fate of existing gas networks. The development of district heating can affect the use of gas, particularly in residential or tertiary buildings. This thesis assesses potential use cases of existing gas networks by identifying certain criteria. Among them are industrial, tertiary or residential consumption, the presence of a district heating network, or the number of homes using individual gas heating. These criteria make it possible to define areas where the question of removing the gas distribution network can be raised, and other areas where the gas distribution network must be retained even if gas consumption falls sharply between 2019 and 2050. By reviewing the relevant literature, detailing the research questions and presenting a comprehensive methodology of scenario modelling, the thesis provides policy insights and a methodology to develop district heating at the scale of an urban area while addressing the future of existing gas infrastructure. / Detta arbete ger en modellering av scenarier för minskade koldioxidutsläpp i stadsområden, samt ger policyinsikter och metodik med fokus på införandet av fjärrvärme och underhållet av det befintliga gasdistributionsnätet som en fallstudie. Med fokus på att minska gasförbrukningen i bostads- och tjänstesektorerna integrerar forskningen scenarioutveckling med en metod för att utveckla fjärrvärme, vilket kräver en noggrann avvägning för att välja den optimala skalan för stadsomfattande analys. I studien bedöms vad som ska hända med befintliga gasnät. Utvecklingen av fjärrvärme kan påverka användningenav gas, särskilt i bostads- eller tertiärbyggnader. Denna avhandling bedömer potentiella användningsfall befintliga gasnät genom att identifiera kriterier baserade på faktorer som industriell, tertiär tertiär eller bostadsförbrukning, förekomsten av ett fjärrvärmenät eller antalet av bostäder som använder individuell gasuppvärmning, till exempel. Dessa kriterier gör det möjligt att definiera områden där frågan om att ta bort gasdistributionsnätet kan väckas, och andra områden där gasdistributionsnätet måste behållas även om förbrukningen förbrukningen minskar kraftigt mellan 2019 och 2050. Genom att granska den relevanta litteraturen, specificera forskningsfrågorna och presentera en omfattande metod för scenariomodellering, ger avhandlingen ett värdefullt exempel på hur man kan ge politisk insikt och metodik för att utveckla fjärrvärme i ett stadsområde samtidigt som man tar itu med framtiden för befintlig gasinfrastruktur.

Road freight transport is changing, with an uncertain future and climate change calling for adaptation. Batteries as the power source are one solution for sustainable transport, yet these are affected by degrading effects, eventually making the batteries unusable. However, previous studies have shown that stationary second-life applications are possible for the used batteries. Another possibility is to reuse batteries in trucks with lower load requirements, thus extending their useful life, which also could aid in coping with the large number of batteries that battery electric vehicles will require. Nevertheless, few scholars have focused on this, and the literature is scarce. How battery usage affects truck performance in different life cycles must then be answered. Additionally, a proper business model must be adopted since the ownership of batteries and responsibility for the degrading becomes less clear with several users. Hence, investigating how more circular business models for batteries perform compared to linear business models is enticing. However, the uncertain future makes several possible future scenarios equally likely to happen, leading to future planning struggles. This work dives into the problem by developing a simulation model that uses a future scenario framework to simulate the effect of battery usage and different business models in the future. This work has several valuable contributions. First, it shows that using batteries in several lifecycles has benefits. Second, more circular business models for batteries can be more beneficial than linear business models, depending on the future values and payment methods. Above all, this work also has implications on a greater level, showing the potential value of using simulation methods in product and business model development processes. Using such models can develop products and business models to be sustainable, robust against futu reuncertainties, and perform the best on a module, product, and company level. In short, this study has shown the value of combining future scenarios with technical and business model aspects to simulate the future and gain insights for development. / Vägtransport är under förändring, där en osäker framtid och miljöförändringar kräver anpassning. Batterier som energikälla är en lösning för hållbara transporter, dock är dessa påverkade av degraderingseffekter, som till slut gör batterierna oanvändbara. Tidigare studier har visar på att återanvändning i stationära applikationer är möjligt för använda batterier. En annan möjlighet är att återanvända batterier i lastbilar med lägre belastningskrav, och därmed förlänga dess användbara liv, vilket också kan hjälpa att hantera det stora behovet av batterier som batteri-elektriska fordon kommer kräva. Dock är litteraturen om detta otillräcklig. Därmed måste batterianvändingens påverkan på lastbilsprestanda i olika livscykler av batteriet undersökas. Utöver det måste också en lämplig affärsmodell användas eftersom ägandeskapet av batterier och ansvaret för degradingseffekter blir mindre tydlig med flera användare. Därför är det intressant hur cirkulära affärsmodeller för batterier presterar jämfört med linjära affärsmodeller. En osäker framtid med många möjliga framtida scenarier gör planering för framtiden svårt. Detta arbete hanterar problemet genom att skapa en simuleringsmodell som använda ett ramverk för framtida scenarier för att simulera effekten av batterianvändning och affärsmodeller i framtiden. Detta arbete bidrar med flera viktiga insikter. För det första, visas att användning av batterier i flera livscykler har fördelar jämfört med bara en livscykel. För det andra, visas att mer cirkulära affärsmodeller för batterier kan vara förmånligt jämfört med linjära affärsmodeller, beroende på framtida värderingar och betalningsstrukturer. Framförallt visar detta arbete implikationer på en högre nivå, genom att visa potentialen av att använda simuleringsmodeller i utvecklingsprocesser för produkt och affärsmodeller. Genom att använda denna typ av model kan produkter och affärsmodeller utvecklas till att vara hållbara, robusta mot framtida osäkerheter, och prestera bäst på en modul-, produkt-, och företagsnivå. Sammanfattat visar denna studie på värdet av kombinera framtida scenarier med tekniska- och affärsmodellsaspekter för att simulera framtiden och få insikter för utveckling.

Today, one of the greatest concerns for companies is how well their business will fit their future markets. However, predicting how the future will unfold is almost impossible for many industries, but companies that fail to prepare their products for future markets will most likely face substantial problems. Consequently, many companies have drawn their interest to product development strategies that cope with an unpredictable future, and research has highlighted Modularization as one such strategy. Nevertheless, there are no current methods that integrate future studies into the modularization process. Besides, there are no methods that evaluate the resilience of modular configurations against future scenarios. In the absence of such methods, this study targets the gap between future studies and modularization. The objective is to explore how scenario modeling can be used in the modularization process to evaluate the fitness of modular configurations against future conditions. The study scope is a simplified inter-urban transport mission with a particular focus on battery-electric and fuel-cell electric trucks. To meet the objective, this study builds upon a scenario framework from previous research that provides possible but yet distinctive futures within the transportation industry. Further, the future scenarios are bridged to the modularization process by transitioning the most important customer values from the scenarios to measurable design variables. Subsequently, by assigning weights to the customer values in accordance with scenario narratives, the overall efficiency of 42 unique modular configurations could be evaluated against the presumed importance of future customer values. Those findings were used to assess the relative performance of modules with respect to multiple futures and to provide reflections on the most and least robust modular design and configuration choices across multiple futures. In summary, the contribution from this method is shown to be two-fold. On the one hand, the model can provide insights and directions on the future resilience of modular concepts in the early stages of product development processes. On the other hand, it can be used in recurring performance assessments of modular configurations and guide optimization of module variants to prepare modular product configurations for multiple scenarios. / Ett av de största bekymren för företag idag är alltjämt hur bra deras verksamhet kommer möta framtidens kundbehov. Emellertid är det nästan omöjligt att förutspå hur framtiden kommer utvecklas inom många branscher, men samtidigt möter företag överhängande operationella förluster om de misslyckas med att adressera framtidens behov. Föga förvånande har många företag börjat intressera sig för flexibla produktutvecklingsstrategier som kan hantera en oförutsägbar framtid och tidigare forskning har belyst Modularisering som en sådan strategi. Däremot finns det i dagsläget inga nuvarande metoder som tar hänsyn till framtidsstudier i modulariseringsprocessen. Dessutom verkar det inte finnas några metoder som utvärderar effektiviteten hos modulära konfigurationer med avseende på olika framtidsscenarier. I avsaknad av sådana metoder riktar sig detta examensarbete mot gapet mellan framtidsstudier och modularisering av produkter. Syftet är att undersöka hur scenariomodellering kan användas i modulariseringsprocessen för att utvärdera robustheten hos moduler gentemot olika framtidsscenarier. Studien är avgränsad mot inter-urbana transportuppdrag med ett särskilt fokus på batteridrivna och vätgasdrivna lastbilar. För att uppnå forskningssyftet bygger uppsatsen på scenariomodellering från tidigare forskning som bidrar med en uppsättning av möjliga men ändå distinkta framtidsscenarier. Vidare kunde framtidsscenarierna sammanlänkas med modulariseringsprocessen genom att extrahera de viktigaste kundvärdena från framtidsscenarierna och översätta dessa till mätbara design variabler. Därefter kunde den totala effektiviteten för 42 unika lastbilskonfigurationer utvärderas mot framtidakundvärden genom att tilldela kundvärdena olika signifikansnivåer baserat på framtidsscenarierna. Dessaresultat användes för att bedöma konfigurationernas relativa prestanda mot olika framtidsscenarier. Resultatet användes också till att samla in data om modulernas robusthet och sedermera analysera lämpligheten hos enskilda moduler. Sammanfattningsvis bedöms bidraget från metoden vara av dubbel karaktär. Å ena sidan kan metoden ge insikter om den framtida lämpligheten hos modulära koncept i ett tidigt skede av produktutvecklingsprocessen. Samtidigt kan metoden användas i återkommande utvärderingar av modulkonfigurationer och som ledsagning för att optimera modulvarianter och förbereda modulära produktkonfigurationer mot flera framtidsscenarier.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de fournir un modèle, une méthode et un outil d’aide à la réalisation de scénarios interactifs. Cette solution répond au problème de l’opposition entre la maîtrise du déroulement d’un jeu vidéo et son niveau d’interactivité. En d’autres termes, notre but est d’aider à réaliser des jeux vidéo dont l’évolution satisfait les intentions des auteurs tout en autorisant un déroulement influencé par les choix du joueur (exprimés aux travers de ses actions). Pour cela, notre proposition permet à l’utilisateur de produire un modèle de scénario de jeu de bonne qualité qui est : (a) riche – le scénario fournit suffisamment d’options pertinentes aux personnages joueur/non-joueur de sorte que le joueur puisse déterminer le déroulement du jeu et sente toujours que le discours créé est intéressant, (b) valide – tous les discours possibles dans le scénario sont cohérents et répondent aux effets désirés par les auteurs, (c) opérationnel – la représentation du scénario est exécutable. Ce scénario est ensuite employé comme l’entrée d’un système de pilotage de narration interactive assurant le contrôle de la gestion du déroulement du jeu. Par conséquent, l’évolution des jeux, qui sont dirigés par un tel système de pilotage, garantit que l’exécution du jeu respecte les souhaits des auteurs, et en même temps, autorise la liberté des actions du joueur. Pour répondre au problème exposé ci-dessus, nous appuyons notre solution sur un modèle mathématique calculable (la logique linéaire) qui offre des mécanismes de déductions rigoureux et automatiques.Nous avons fait un tour d'horizon des approches existantes concernant le pilotage de narration interactive et la validation de scénario. Ceci nous permet d'identifier les principes nécessaires à notre solution, tels que les éléments d'architecture d'un système de pilotage ; la construction,la représentation, l'exécution de scénarios narratifs ; les propriétés de narration importantes ; l'évolution de référence des paramètres dramatiques ; la structuration de discours ; la stratégie pour la validation d'un scénario ; les informations qualitatives et statistiques nécessaires… Nos contributions portent (1) sur la définition d'un ensemble de propriétés de narration spécifiant la qualité des scénarios de jeu ; (2) sur la proposition de modèles, algorithmes et outils pour écrire des modèles de scénario respectant ces propriétés. Nous validons nos résultats par la réalisation de deux exemples. Le premier est un extrait d'un jeu éducatif expliquant comment appliquer notre outil en vue de produire un modèle de scénario de jeu valide, qui est exprimé par un séquent de logique linéaire dont la représentation est conforme à un métamodèle du calcul des séquents. Pour le second exemple, nous décrivons le processus de production complet d'un jeu vidéo réel basé sur l'histoire « Le Petit Chaperon rouge », mettant en oeuvre un prototype de système de pilotage que nous avons proposé, ce qui permet de dérouler le jeu selon le scénario valide produit, donc son évolution satisfait les intentions des auteurs, et en même temps, dépend des actions du joueur. / The objective of this PhD thesis is to provide a model, a method and a tool for producing interactive scenarios. Our solution solves the opposition between the controlle devolution of a video game and its interactivity level. In other words, our goal is to assist (authors) in producing video games whose unfolding satisfies authors’ intentions while it is simultaneously influenced by player’s choices (expressed via her/his actions).To this purpose, our proposal is to allow users to produce a good quality game scenario model, which is: (a) rich – the scenario provides enough pertinent options for player/non-player characters so that the player can determine the evolution of the game and always feels that the created discourse is interesting, (b) valid – all the possible discourses in the scenario are consistent and meet authors required effects, (c) operational – the representation of the scenario is executable. This scenario is then used as the input of an interactive storytelling control system to assist it in managing the unfolding of the game. As a consequence, the evolution of the video games, which are directed by such a control system, guarantees authors requirements, while at the same time, it depends on player’s actions. In order to execute the foregoing proposal, we base our solution on a calculable mathematical model (linear logic) which provides rigorous and automatic deduction mechanisms. We have made an overview of existing approaches concerning interactive storytelling controland scenario validation problems. This allows us to identify necessary principles for our solution, such as: architecture elements of a control system; construction, representation, implementation of narrative scenarios; important narrative properties; reference evolution of the drama parameters; discourse structuralization; scenario validation strategy; necessary statistical and qualitative information; etc. Our contributions consist (1) in the definition of a set of narrative properties specifying the quality of game scenarios; (2) in the proposal of models, algorithms and tools in order to produce scenario models respecting these properties. We validate our results by realizing two examples. The first is an extract of an education algame explaining how to apply our tools to produce a valid game scenario model, which is expressed by a linear logic sequent whose representation conforms to a metamodel of the sequent calculus. For the second example, we describe the complete production process of areal video game based on the story "Little Red Cap", implementing a prototype of control system we have proposed, which allows unfolding the game according to the produced valid scenario, so its evolution satisfies authors intentions and simultaneously depends on player's actions.