Nel primo articolo, stimiamo l'economia sommersa di 49 paesi dal 1981 al 2005. Il nostro studio si basa sull'utilizzo dei consumi elettrici filtrati per i cambiamenti tecnologici e le variazioni nella quota del settore industriale. Contrariamente agli studi basati sul metodo MIMIC, noi otteniamo una riduzione nella dimensione dell'economia sommersa. Contrariamente a La Porta and Shleifer (2008), inoltre, identifichiamo misure di qualità istituzionale che sono significativamente correlate all'economia sommersa, pur controllando per il PIL pro-capite. L'economia non registrata non può, dunque, essere considerata una conseguenza del sotto sviluppo. Al contrario, l’attività economica sommersa è relazionata a specifici aspetti istituzionali che possono sopravvivere con la crescita economica. Inoltre, identifichiamo un forte effetto sostituzione tra il settore ufficiale e quello non ufficiale. Questo risultato ha importanti implicazioni sia per la convergenza dei redditi che per la relazione tra volatilità e crescita. Nel secondo articolo, analizziamo il ruolo di istituzioni, crescita e politiche nel determinare l’economia sommersa. La forte separazione tra assunti teorici sulle determinanti istituzionali del sommerso e le tecniche di misurazione utilizzate rappresenta il primo aspetto innovativo del lavoro. Sfruttando, inoltre, la dimensione time-series del panel, siamo in grado di meglio analizzare il nesso tra crescita del PIL ufficiale e dimensione relativa del sommerso. Il terzo aspetto innovativo dell’articolo si riferisce al contributo apportato al lungo dibattito circa il ruolo di istituzioni e politiche nel determinare i risultati economici. In terzo articolo, rovesciamo l’approccio standard tipicamente seguito nella letteratura relativa all’economia sommersa. Invece di utilizzare i dati sulla domanda di moneta per ottenere stime sulla dinamica del sommerso, analizziamo gli effetti di lungo periodo dell’economia non registrata sulla velocità di circolazione della moneta. Il nostro contributo è duplice: i) apportiamo un miglioramento alla letteratura sulle determinanti della velocità di circolazione della moneta; ii) testiamo indirettamente la credibilità delle stime del sommerso presentate nel primo articolo della tesi. / In the first paper, we estimate the unrecorded economy in 49 economies from 1981 to 2005. Our study is based on electricity consumption series which are filtered to account for technological change and for the changing weight of the energy-intensive industrial sector. In contrast with studies based on the MIMIC method, we obtain a reduction in the weight of the unobserved economy. Unlike La Porta and Shleifer (2008), we identify measures of institutional quality which are significantly related to the shadow economy even after controlling for per-capita GDP. Thus the shadow economy should not be dismissed as the unpleasant side effect of underdevelopment. Instead it is related to some specific institutional aspects that may well survive even when the economy reaches higher development stages. We identify strong substitution effects between official and unofficial sectors both in the long run and over the business cycle. This has important implications for income convergence and for the relationship between volatility and growth. In the second paper, we investigate the distinct roles played by institutions, growth and policies in determining the shadow economy. The sharp distinction between theoretical priors on the institutional determinants of the shadow economy and the technique used for its measurement is the first novel contribution of the paper. The second innovation is that, by exploiting the time series dimension of our panel, we are able to better investigate the link between official output growth and the relative size of shadow economy. The third innovation is that we can contribute to a long-standing controversy about the distinct roles of "institutions" and "policies" in determining economic outcomes. In the third paper we reverse the standard approach typically followed in the literature on the shadow economy. Instead of exploiting money demand data to extrapolate the dynamics of the shadow economy, we explore the long run effect of shadow economy measures – obtained independently from money demand functions - on money velocity. By doing this, the original contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we improve the understanding of money velocity determinants. Second, we provide an indirect test of the reliability of the estimates on the shadow economy presented in the first paper of the thesis.

This article discusses the corrupt official and entrepreneurs. When entrepreneurs want to operate in the market, they have to purchase license from the official. In two-stage model, the official can take different prices of different types of entrepreneurs, and commits to his demand. We get the optimal demands of the official and critical types of entrepreneurs. In the framework with the shadow economy, the official is forced to decrease his demands. By examining the optimal demands and critical types, we found that the official¡¦s benefits decrease in the shadow economy.

Lietuvoje šešėlinės ekonomikos augimas pastaraisiais metais sulėtėjo, tačiau šešėlinės ekonomikos pozicijos mūsų šalyje yra pakankamai tvirtos ir daro neigiamą įtaką valstybės ekonomikos vystymuisi. Svarbu ištirti teorinius ir praktinius šešėlinės ekonomikos vertinimo, prevencijos aspektus, kadangi Lietuvoje nėra atliekamas pastovus šešėlinės ekonomikos vertinimas, o kova su šešėline ekonomika vykdoma naikinant pasekmes, bet ne priežastis, neužtikrinant efektyvios prevencijos. Magistro darbo tikslas išnagrinėti šešėlinės ekonomikos būklę ir įvertinti šešėlinės ekonomikos prevencijos priemones Lietuvoje. Tuo tikslu naudojant bendramokslinį loginės, sisteminės analizės, statistinės informacijos loginės analizės, lyginamosios analizės metodus, atskleista šešėlinės ekonomikos samprata, išnagrinėti šešėlinės ekonomikos Lietuvoje funkcionavimo mechanizmo ypatumai, pateikta šešėlinės ekonomikos vertinimo metodika, išanalizuoti šešėlinės ekonomikos Lietuvoje pokyčiai ir priemones jai mažinti. Darbą sudaro keturios pagrindinės dalys. Pirmojoje dalyje aptariama šešėlinės ekonomikos samprata, išnagrinėjami įvairūs sampratos aspektai. Antrojoje darbo dalyje atskleidžiami šešėlinės ekonomikos funkcionavimo mechanizmai – priežastys, kodėl šešėlinė ekonomika susiformuoja, ją sąlygojantys veiksniai, pasekmės valstybės ekonominiam gyvenimui. Trečiojoje darbo dalyje nagrinėjami metodai, kurie įvairiose šalyse naudojami šešėlinei ekonomikai identifikuoti ir įvertinti. Ketvirtoje darbo dalyje... [to full text] / The growth of shadow economy has recently slowed down in Lithuania, but the shadow economy still forms a great part of economy and is a loss for the society. It is important to analyze theoretical and practical aspects of shadow economy evaluation and prevention, because Lithuania’s government does not make periodical researches of shadow economy; the fight against the shadow economy is mostly against its results, not the reasons, not assuring efficient prevention of shadow economy. The aim of this Master Paper is to analyze measures and means of shadow economy minimizing. Seeking for this aim, and using the method of logical, systemic analysis, statistical information analysis, comparative analysis the shadow economy concepts, functional aspects, were analyzed, as well as the methods of shadow economy evaluation, the results of shadow economy in Lithuania and abroad, and means to minimize it. The Master paper contains four main parts. The first part analyzes theoretical and practical aspects of the concept „shadow economy”. The second part of the Paper presents the functional mechanism of shadow economy, theoretical theories describing the reasons and results of shadow economy. The third part analysis methods for shadow economy evaluation and measurement. The forth part of the Paper presents the research of shadow economy results in Lithuania and foreign countries; this part disuses means of shadow economy prevention used in Lithuanian and abroad. At the end of the forth... [to full text]

Purpose: The purpose is to investigate the size of the shadow economy within the EU, by studying undeclared work, bribery and tax evasion in 28 Member States in 2013, and answer the question how to better combat shadow economy. Research design: The study is a quantitative research as it uses data from existing surveys and a report. The collected data is analyzed by multiplying the number of respondents with the percentage of the issue in each Member State. Calculating all three issues for 28 Member States presents the size of the shadow economy in the EU in 2013. Findings: Research has found that shadow economy is present within the EU. The study shows that the size of shadow economy in 2013 is 17,6 %. Amongst the three issues, tax evasion was more extensive than the other two issues. Besides regulation, there are other considerable factors that contribute to the gap in the shadow economy. The findings show that EU has taken measures to combat these issues. However, the study finds other measures to be needed to combat shadow economy. Contribution: This study contributes to the research of shadow economy within the EU by focusing on three issues: undeclared work, bribery and tax evasion. The study is supposed to raise awareness to not neglect the issues but rather combat them in a cross-border effort as shadow economy is not only affecting each Member States at national level but also at EU-level.

This thesis deals with the measurement of tax evasion. The first part deals with the theory of tax evasion, its general, legislative and economic definition and its consequences. A special subsection is devoted to relation of the tax evasion and the shadow economy. The second part deals with the theory of tax evasion measurement and the last chapter focuses on shadow economy volume measurement and tax evasion measurement in the Czech Republic.

The shadow economy is a topic that has been around for many years now. The increasing regulations on cash and the endeavours public authorities made to enlarge the tax base show a clear intention from the public sector to pursue any activity that is carried out outside the borders of what is taxable. This paper uses the Currency Demand Approach (CDA) to estimate the monetary base M0 for Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain and for each year from 2002 to 2021 and, subsequently, calculate the size of the shadow economy as a percentage of GDP. To estimate the CDA equation, we employed fixed effects panel data regression. The results show an average shadow economy value of 9,33% for Greece; 13,43% for Italy; 10,78% for Portugal; and 11,11% for Spain. The results have also been compared with those of previous studies that have estimated the shadow economy of other countries using the MIMIC approach, showing that the CDA tends to give lower estimates. Additionally, a common trend was found for the studied countries since after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2014, all of them reached peak values in their shadow economies.

Trois essais sur la région MENA et l'économie informelle. / Informality is a social and economical phenomenon that has huge implications on societies. Over $3.1 trillion annually is lost to tax evasion worldwide (see The Tax Justice Network report). Informality means different things to different people. Sometimes this term is used to describe tax evasion and sometimes to refer to noncompliance with labor or regulations. Whatever definition is used, informality can be a serious problem in some countries, stifling investment, undermining the overall competetiveness of the whole economy and impeding growth. It could also be an important remedy in other countries playing a role as a mechanism of economic adjustment and source of livelihood for the poor and unemployed. Hart [1973] was the first anthropologist to observe, study and coin the word "informal economy" in his research in Accra and today’s literature is largely based on his work. Societies started acknowledging the importance of informality and then eventually economists, sociologists and anthropologists started analyzing its characteristics worldwide. […]

This thesis presents estimates of capital flight from Ukraine in the period 1994 to 2017. We use the World Bank Residual method to calculate capital flight as a residual difference between sources and uses of funds in the economy. Our findings show that pre-2014, capital flight amounted to 7.5 billion USD on average. On the contrary, in 2014 our method reports unrecorded capital inflow of 10.7 billion USD, which took place in times of economic recession and military conflict in the east of Ukraine. We analyze the factors that might have caused reverse capital flight, and consider that increase in remittance flows, growth of the black currency market and new niches in the underground economy might have had an effect on unrecorded capital inflows. Finally, we study the components of the World Bank Residual method, and suggest that capital flight might have taken forms that the method doesn't encompass. Therefore, we underline the importance of accounting for gaps in the method by adding trade misinvoicing estimates to capital flight volumes. Keywords Ukraine, Capital Flight, World Bank Residual Method, Balance of Payments, Shadow Economy Range of thesis: 89 886 Characters

Fragile states are characterized by institutions which do not have the political will or ability to reduce poverty in the interests of their citizen, to establish basic social security, to promote a successful development process, and to guarantee security and human rights. The regional disintegration processes after the period of imperialism and the fall of the iron curtain have created many new states, which still are politically unstable and unable for a sustainable development. In the literature such states are describes as "weak", "failing or failed", "collapsed", "conflict or post-conflict" - dependant on the extent of the particular state failure. Several indicators try to describe such states and partly allow for projections of the future development. Then the role of taxation is discussed in detail before recommendations for the development cooperation are presented. Obviously taxation plays a key role for the democratization process in fragile states.

Šešėlinę ekonomiką daug kas supranta kaip nelegalų verslą ar kontrabandą. Tai nėra tik vogtų daiktų realizavimas, prostitucija ar narkotikai, kuriuos privalo kontroliuoti policija ir kitos valstybės institucijos. Tačiau ir legalus verslas taip pat tampa šešėlinės ekonomikos dalimi, kai jos veiklos rezultatai falsifikuojami siekiant išvengti mokesčių. Tai neteisėti sandoriai, nerealios jų vertės ir panašiai. Iš tiesų, tai sudėtingas reiškinys, iškreipiantis oficialiąją statistiką, stabdantis ekonomikos augimą. Šio darbo tikslas nustatyti ekonominius faktorius, reikšmingai įtakoja Lietuvos šešėlinę ekonomiką. Darbo eigoje apibrėžiama šešėlinė ekonomika, jos sudedamosios dalys bei vertinimo metodikos. Tyrimo metu sudaromas Lietuvos šešėlinės ekonomikos MIMIC (Multiple Indicator Multiple Causal) modelis. Tikrinamas jo suderinamumas su turimais statistiniais duomenimis. Taip pat pateikiamos trys skirtingos MIMIC modelio specifikacijos, remiantis statistiniais kriterijais jos palyginamos ir randama priimtiniausia. / There is considerable agreement internationally about the factors that determine the relative size of the underground economy and that evidence of underground activity will be captured in several economic indicators. Until recently, however, the methods that have been employed to measure the underground economy focused on only a few causal factors, one indicator, and only produced an estimate for one particular point in time. This paper presents the modeling technique that threats the underground economy as an unobservable or latent variable and incorporates multiple indicator and multiple causal variables – MIMIC model. Moreover this technique allows us to estimate the significance of each causal variable as well as each indicator. First of all the theoretical definition of the shadow economy is proposed. Further the MIMIC modeling technique is described and the emphasis is laid on the most common variables used for latter method. Subsequently, the model is defined and the corresponding economical variables of Lithuanian are chosen. Whereupon the model is estimated and respecified while nonsignificant variables and relations been removed. Finally the conclusions about the most suitable model and statistically significant variables are maid.