Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Kimie Ugino.pdf: 684425 bytes, checksum: f3348c8c79ff8693b69dcb15c748907c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-02 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The aim of this study is to analyze the Brazilian pension reform implemented since the 1990s. The current characteristics of the Social Security system were built in the 1988 Federal Constitution and gradually modified in the reforms. Soon after the promulgation of the Charter, several proposals for Social Pension reform were discussed on the grounds of financial crisis and exhaustion of the system. This debate focuses on the guidelines of a neoliberal state that has gained greater acceptance from the government of Fernando Collor de Melo. Reforms of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luis Inácio Lula da Silva are analyzed mainly with regard to access to pensions, the roofs of retirement, the age limits. Among the consequences this study analyzes the significant changes in Social Security and limited expansion of pension funds. Moreover, given the backdrop of globalized finance, it is concluded that these reforms jeopardized the achievements of social protection built in the 1988 Constitution / Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as reformas previdenciárias brasileiras implantadas no Brasil a partir da década de 1990. As características atuais do sistema previdenciário brasileiro foram construídas na Constituição de 1988 e aos poucos modificadas nas reformas. Logo após a promulgação da Carta, várias propostas de reforma da Previdência Social foram discutidas sob o discurso de crise financeira e de esgotamento do seu sistema. Esse debate contempla as diretrizes de um Estado neoliberal que ganhou maior aceitação a partir do governo Fernando Collor de Melo. As reformas dos governos Fernando Henrique Cardoso e Luís Inácio Lula da Silva são analisadas principalmente no que se refere ao acesso às aposentadorias, aos tetos das aposentadorias, aos limites de idade. Entre as conseqüências, são analisadas as alterações significativas na Previdência Social e a expansão limitada dos fundos de pensão no Brasil. Ademais, dado o cenário das finanças mundializadas, conclui-se que essas reformas colocaram em risco as conquistas da proteção social construídas na Constituição de 1988

Das Transfer-Einkommens-Derivativ ist einer der wichtigsten ökonomischen Parameter zur Beantwortung der Frage, ob Sozialrenten den unter Armut leidenden Älteren in voller Höhe zu Gute kommen oder ob politisch unerwünschte Verdrängungseffekte auftreten. Eine Verdrängung privater intergenerationeller Transfers durch die Vergabe von Sozialrenten wird dabei als Schwächung familiärer Strukturen angesehen, da erwachsene Kinder ihre vorherigen privaten finanziellen Unterstützungsleistungen an ihre bedürftigen Eltern kürzen oder gar aussetzen. Die staatlichen Leistungen kämen damit nicht vollständig den Bedürftigen zugute, weshalb die Wirksamkeit von Sozialrenten zur Bekämpfung von Altersarmut in Frage gestellt wird. Der aktuelle internationale Forschungsstand bestätigt die Existenz solcher Verdrängungseffekte bei Sozialtransferprogrammen in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern. Die der Dissertation zugrundeliegende empirische Erhebung zu Intrahaushaltstransfers in Mehrgenerationenhaushalten in drei Regionen Nordindiens (Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh und Delhi) hat jedoch gezeigt, dass theoretische Annahmen der Modelle und landestypische Gegebenheiten Indiens, wie etwa korrupte Vergabemuster bei den Sozialrenten, die Aussagekraft des Transfer-Einkommens-Derivativs zur Beurteilung der Effizienz der Sozialrenten stark einschränken. Die Daten zeigen überdies, dass der Nettotransferstrom abwärts verläuft, von den älteren zu den jüngeren Haushaltsmitgliedern. Dies steht im Gegensatz zu der gängigen Annahme, dass in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern die Älteren überwiegend Empfänger privater Transfers sind. / The transfer income derivative is one of the most important economic parameters in understanding whether social pensions serve the elderly poor, as the intended beneficiaries, or whether social pensions crowd out private transfers from family members. The crowding out effect of private transfers by public transfers is seen as weakening traditional family ties because adult children reduce or even cease private transfers to the needy elderly. In that case, public transfers may have no net effect on the income of the elderly calling into question the efficacy of public pension schemes in fighting old age poverty. The current state of international research provides evidence for these crowding out effects in developing or industrializing countries. Drawing on empirical research of intra-household transfers in households with elderly co-residence in three selected north Indian regions (Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi), this dissertation shows that theoretical assumptions of the models as well as country specific circumstances of India, such as corruption in the allocation of social pensions, limit the explanatory power of the transfer income derivative in judging the efficacy of such pensions. Additionally the data shows that private net transfers flow downward, from the elderly to the younger members of the household. This is in stark contrast to the common assumption that in developing and industrializing countries the elderly are mainly recipients of private transfers.

Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres indépendants sur les enfants de migrants restés au village en Chine, ainsi que sur les personnes âgées vivant seules en Thaïlande et au Vietnam. Le premier chapitre traite de la manière dont les frais de scolarité dans les zones urbaines affectent la migration des enfants en Chine. Nos résultats suggèrent que des frais plus élevés empêchent les travailleurs migrants d’amener leurs enfants avec eux dans les zones urbaines. Nous trouvons également que les travailleurs migrants dans la situation la plus précaire sont les plus touchés par une augmentation des frais de scolarité. Le deuxième chapitre étudie les répercussions de la migration interne des enfants adultes et de leurs envois de fonds sur l'offre de main-d'œuvre de leurs parents restés en zone rurale au Vietnam. Les résultats montrent que les mères ont tendance à travailler plus si elles ont des enfants migrants, mais à travailler moins lorsqu'elles reçoivent des fonds de leur part. À l'inverse, les pères sont moins touchés par la migration de leurs enfants et par leurs envois de fonds. Le troisième article examine l’impact de la retraite universelle introduite en Thaïlande en 2009 sur le bien-être et l'offre de main-d'œuvre de ses bénéficiaires et de leurs conjoints. Les résultats empiriques montrent que ce régime de retraite ne génère pas d'impact significatif sur la pauvreté ou les dépenses des ménages, mais recevoir une retraite a un impact négatif important sur la participation des bénéficiaires au marché du travail. De plus, les hommes comme les femmes réagissent à la perception d’une retraite par leur conjoint en quittant leur emploi et en restant inactifs. / This dissertation consists of three independent papers on the left-behind children in China and the left-behind elderly in Thailand and Vietnam. The first paper addresses how school fees in urban areas affect child migration in China. Our findings suggest that higher fees deter migrant workers from bringing their children to urban areas, and more vulnerable migrant workers are most affected by an increase in school fees. The second paper investigates the impacts of adult children’s internal migration and remittances on the labor supply responses of the rural left-behind parents in Vietnam. The results show that mothers tend to work more if they have migrant children, and they tend to work less when they receive remittances from their migrant children. Conversely, fathers tend to be less affected by child migration and their remittances. The third paper examines the impacts of the universal social pension introduced in Thailand in 2009 on the well-being and the labor supply responses of the recipients and their spouses. The empirical results show that the social pension scheme does not generate significant impacts on household poverty status or expenditures, but receiving social pensions has a significant negative impact on beneficiaries' own labor market participation. Further, both men and women are found to respond to their spouses' pensions by leaving their jobs and staying inactive.

The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore- casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe- ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3) for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)

The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore- casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe- ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3) for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)