Les virus de l’enroulement de la vigne (Grapevine leafroll-associated virus, GLRaV) sont répandus mondialement et transmis à la vigne uniquement par cochenilles (Coccoidea). En France, l’enroulement viral affecte particulièrement les vignobles des régions septentrionales.L’approche biologique de la vection a montré la capacité de Phenacoccus aceris à transmettre à la vigne les GLRaV-1, -3, -4, -5, -6, -9 et ceux du bois strié Grapevine virus A et B. Cette étude est la première démonstration de la transmission du GLRaV-6 et confirme l’absence de spécificité des cochenilles dans la transmission des Ampelovirus. Les larves néonates de P. aceris et de Neopulvinaria innumerabilis représentent un stade de développement efficace pour la transmission de ces virus. En conséquence, leurs capacités vectrices, associées à leur fort potentiel de dissémination anémophile, impliquent un risque important de dispersion naturelle de ces virus dans un vignoble infesté. Les relevés sur quatre parcelles distinctes montrent que Parthenolecanium corni, Pulvinaria vitis, Heliococcus bohemicus et P. aceris sont communes, chaque vignoble différant par la diversité spécifique, le taux de ceps infestés et l’abondance des cochenilles. L'étude épidémiologique prouve le rôle des cochenilles dans la dispersion de l’enroulement viral dans les vignobles septentrionaux. A Bonzon, la responsabilité de P. aceris dans la diffusion rapide du GLRaV-1 est mise en évidence. Cette découverte représente la première preuve en Europe d’une dispersion naturelle du GLRaV-1. A Marsannayla-Côte, l’incidence du GLRaV-1 reste faible, la colonie de P. aceris ne semblant avoir qu’un rôle très limité dans la diffusion de la maladie. L'épidémiologie moléculaire à Bonzon révèle une diversité génétique importante du GLRaV-1 à l’échelle parcellaire et fournit pour la première fois des données sur le polymorphisme génétique d'une population de GLRaV-1 ayant été dispersée par des cochenilles. / Grapevine leafroll viruses (Grapevine leafroll-associated virus, GLRaV) are present worldwide and transmitted to grapevine only by scale insect vectors (Coccoidea). In France, leafroll disease is present in all vine-growing areas, particularly in north-eastern regions. The biological approach of transmission allowed us to show the capacity of the mealybug Phenacoccus aceris to transmit the viruses GLRaV-1, -3, -4, -5, -6, -9 and the rugose wood viruses Grapevine virus A and B. This study represents the first evidence of the transmission of GLRaV-6 and confirms the absence of mealybug specificity in the transmission of Ampelovirus. First instar nymphs of P. aceris and of Neopulvinaria innumerabilis represent a very efficient development stage in the transmission of leafroll and rugose wood viruses. As a consequence, their vector capacities associated with the high potential of dispersal of these nymphs imply an important risk of natural spread of viruses in an infested vineyard. The entomological monitoring on 4 plots shows that Parthenolecanium corni, Pulvinaria vitis, Heliococcus bohemicus and P. aceris are common in vineyards, each site differing by the specific diversity, the level of infested stocks and the abundance of scale insects on stocks. The epidemiological study proves the role of scales insects in the dispersal of leafroll disease in the vineyards of north-eastern France. In Bonzon, the major role of P. aceris in the rapid spread of the GLRaV-1 is demonstrated. This finding represents the first report in Europe of a natural spread of GLRaV-1. In Marsannay-la-Côte, the incidence of the GLRaV-1 remains low and the colony of P. aceris, not associated to grapevine, seems to have only a very limited role in the disease spread. The molecular epidemiology study in Bonzon reveals an important genetic diversity of GLRaV-1 within a signle plotand supplies for the first time information on the genetic polymorphism of a GLRaV-1population being spread by scale insects.

Neste trabalho utilizamos um modelo espaço-temporal proposto em Rojas (2004) para medir a interação social da criminalidade na região metropolitana de São Paulo. Realizamos simulações de Monte Carlo para testar a capacidade de estimação do modelo em diferentes cenários. Observamos que a estimação melhora com o aumento de observações ao longo do tempo. Já os resultados empíricos indicam que a região metropolitana de São Paulo é um hot spot no estado, pois é encontrado um maior grau de interação social no índice de homicídio em relação aos índices de roubo e furto. / In this paper we employ a spatio-temporal model proposed in Rojas (2004) to evaluate the social interaction in crime in São Paulo metropolitan area. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to test the model estimation capability in different scenarios. We notice that the estimation gets better as the number of observations in time raises. The results point out that São Paulo metropolitan area is a hot spot in the state since we found out a greater social interaction for the homicide index, compared to robbery and thievery.

Les séries temporelles d'images satellitaires sont une source d'information importante pour le suivi des changements spatio-temporels des surfaces terrestres. En outre, le nombre d’images est en augmentation constante. Pour les exploiter pleinement, des outils dédiés au traitement automatique du contenu informationnel sont développés. Néanmoins ces techniques ne satisfont pas complètement les géographes qui exploitent pourtant, de plus en plus couramment, les données extraites des images dans leurs études afin de prédire le futur. Nous proposons dans cette thèse, une méthodologie générique à base d’un modèle de Markov caché pour l’analyse et la prédiction des changements sur une séquence d’images satellitaires. Cette méthodologie présente deux modules : un module de traitement intégrant les descripteurs et les algorithmes classiquement utilisés en interprétation d'images, et un module d’apprentissage basé sur les modèles de Markov cachés. La performance de notre approche est évaluée par des essais d’interprétations des évènements spatio-temporels effectués sur plusieurs sites d’études. Les résultats obtenus permettront d’analyser et de prédire les changements issus des différentes séries temporelles d’images SPOT et LANDSAT pour l’observation des évènements spatio-temporels telle que l'expansion urbaine et la déforestation. / The time series of satellite images are an important source of information for monitoring spatiotemporal changes of land surfaces. Furthermore, the number of satellite images is increasing constantly, for taking full advantage, tools dedicated to the automatic processing of information content is developed. However these techniques do not completely satisfy the geographers who exploit more currently, the data extracted from the images in their studies to predict the future. In this research we propose a generic methodology based on a hidden Markov model for analyzing and predicting changes in a sequence of satellite images. The methodology that is proposed presents two modules : a processing module which incorporating descriptors and algorithms conventionally used in image interpretation and a learning module based on hidden Markov models. The performance of the approach is evaluated by trials of interpretation of spatiotemporal events conducted in several study sites. Results obtained allow us to analyze and to predict changes from various time series of SPOT and LANDSAT images for observation of spatiotemporal events such as urban development and deforestation.

Neste trabalho utilizamos um modelo espaço-temporal proposto em Rojas (2004) para medir a interação social da criminalidade na região metropolitana de São Paulo. Realizamos simulações de Monte Carlo para testar a capacidade de estimação do modelo em diferentes cenários. Observamos que a estimação melhora com o aumento de observações ao longo do tempo. Já os resultados empíricos indicam que a região metropolitana de São Paulo é um hot spot no estado, pois é encontrado um maior grau de interação social no índice de homicídio em relação aos índices de roubo e furto. / In this paper we employ a spatio-temporal model proposed in Rojas (2004) to evaluate the social interaction in crime in São Paulo metropolitan area. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to test the model estimation capability in different scenarios. We notice that the estimation gets better as the number of observations in time raises. The results point out that São Paulo metropolitan area is a hot spot in the state since we found out a greater social interaction for the homicide index, compared to robbery and thievery.

Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le cadre du programme international AMMA (Analyse Multidisciplinaire de la Mousson Africaine) dont un des objectifs est de mieux connaître les dynamiques régionales des interactions climat-environnement-société. Elle est une contribution à l'étude de la variabilité spatio-temporelle de la végétation, en fonction des différents types d'occupation du sol et sous contrainte des variations saisonnières et interannuelles de la pluviométrie sur la partie supérieure du bassin versant du fleuve Ouémé, au Bénin. Cette espace possède un important réseau de surveillance hydroclimatique au sol, l'observatoire AMMA-Catch, qui fournit de nombreuses données in situ. L'analyse s'appuie aussi sur différentes données issues de la télédétection satellitaire optique (LANDSAT, SPOT-VGT, MODIS, MSG-SEVIRI ou ECOCLIMAP) pour l'étude de l'occupation du sol, de la variabilité photosynthétique de la végétation ou des estimations pluviométriques (RFE – Rainfall Estimate). L'étude porte principalement sur trois questions : 1) les modifications des états de surface récemment observées dans cette zone expérimentale de l'Ouémé supérieur ; 2) la valorisation des différentes données issues de la télédétection satellitaire pour diagnostiquer la variabilité bioclimatique régionale de la végétation ; 3) la compréhension des interactions à l'interface climat/végétation, pour interpréter certaines variations bioclimatiques intra- et interannuelles en fonction des principaux états de surface. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'il est possible de discriminer des relations fonctionnelles selon les principaux états de surface forestiers ou très anthropisés. Les analyses diachroniques par classification d'images Landsat (ETM+) montrent que les espaces cultivés enregistrent régionalement une augmentation de 25 % sur la période 2003-2012. Les superficies de jachère diminuent, alors que les savanes arbustives augmentent. Tous les espaces forestiers perdent en superficie sur la décennie observée, en particulier les forêts denses (a priori protégées dans cette région) avec une baisse supérieure à 16 %. La variabilité spatio-temporelle d'un indice de végétation (NDVI) est significativement dépendante des trois principaux modes d'occupation du sol, même si l'artefact dû à la nébulosité complique les analyses et interprétations. Les contrastes entre le domaine de forêt naturelle encore préservée (la forêt classée) et les espaces en mutation agricole (cultures et jachères) sont particulièrement visibles. Sur la décennie 2002-2012, il n'y a pas de tendance des pluies, mais plutôt une succession de phases sèches et humides, qui induisent finalement une stabilité interannuelle du NDVI. Le déphasage moyen entre pluies et activité végétale est en moyenne de quatre décades, mais il semble que la fin de la saison végétative recule ait reculé d'au moins 10 jours sur la période étudiée, traduisant une modification des précipitations de fin d'année. / This thesis is part of the international AMMA program (Analyse Multidisciplinaire de la Mousson Africaine - Multidisciplinary Analysis of African Monsoon) whose objective is to better understand the regional dynamics of climate-environment-society interactions. It is a contribution to the study of the spatio-temporal variability of vegetation, according to different land use types and under the constraints of seasonal and interannual variations in rainfall in the upper basin of Ouémé river, Benin. This area has an extensive network of hydro-climatic ground monitoring, observatory AMMA-Catch, which provides many in-situ data. The analysis also relies on data from different optical remote sensing satellites (LANDSAT, SPOT-VGT, MODIS, MSG-SEVIRI or ECOCLIMAP) for the study of land occupation, variability of photosynthetic vegetation or rainfall estimate (RFE). The study focuses mainly on three questions: 1) the changes in surface conditions recently observed in the experimental area of upper Ouémé; 2) the analysis of various data from satellite remote sensing to diagnose regional bioclimatic variability of vegetation; 3) the understanding of climate/vegetation interface interactions, in order to interpret certain intra-and interannual bioclimatic variations depending on the main surface conditions. The main results suggest that it is possible to discriminate the functional relationships from the main conditions of forest or anthropized surface. The diachronic analysis through the classification of Landsat (ETM +) images show that the cultivated areas recorded regionally an increase of 25% over the period of 2003-2012. The areas of set-aside decrease, while shrublands increase. All forests lost in area over the decade observed, particularly dense forest (presumably protected in this region) with a drop of over 16%. The spatio-temporal variability of a vegetation index (NDVI) significantly depends on three main types of land use, even though the noise due to the cloud cover complicates the analysis and interpretation. The contrasts between the preserved natural forest area (the forest reserve) and the agricultural areas (crops and fallow) are particularly visible. Over the decade 2002-2012, there is no trend of rainfall, but rather a succession of wet and dry phases, which ultimately induce an interannual stability of NDVI. The average phase difference between rainfall and vegetation activity is four decades, but it seems that the end of the vegetation growing season has retreated back to at least 10 days during the study period, reflecting a change in rainfall at the end of the year.

Limited systematic research has investigated how conflict events shape the spatial-temporal variation of insurgent violence against civilians. Although previous research has investigated how degrees of territorial control relate to general levels of violence against civilians, it remains largely an open question how the dynamics within territorial control determine violence against civilians by insurgents. This study aims to address this gap by hypothesizing that (1) insurgents become more likely to commit fatal violence against civilians, and (2) kill more civilians in contested areas when they lose territorial control. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) was used along with Peace Research Institute Oslo’s (PRIO) GRID Dataset to create a novel data frame of all territorially contested area-weeks on the African continent between 1997 and 2017 (n = 3035). Contrary to theoretical expectations, logistic regressions indicate a lower risk of insurgent violence against civilians in contested areas following an insurgent territorial loss than following a break-even. Zero-inflated negative binomial regressions moreover tentatively indicate that insurgents kill more civilians following territorial wins in the short-term, and following territorial loss in the long-term. These results suggest that proactive counterinsurgency campaigns are in the interest of civilians in civil war.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:06:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5138.pdf: 2676227 bytes, checksum: 72ab4695bfe8833d7d34d1e803a6ec9a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-13 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The growing concern with the support of the decision-making process has made companies to search technologies that support their decisions. The technology most widely used presently is the Data Warehouse (DW), which allows storing data so it is possible to produce useful and reliable information to assist in strategic decisions. Combining the concepts of Spatial Data Warehouse (SDW), that allows geometry storage and managing, and Temporal Data Warehouse (TDW), which allows storing data changes that occur in the real-world, a research topic known as Spatio-Temporal Data Warehouse (STDW) has emerged. STDW are suitable for the treatment of geometries that change over time. These technologies, combined with the steady growth volume of data, show the necessity of index structures to improve the performance of analytical query processing with spatial predicates and also with geometries that may vary over time. In this sense, this work focused on proposing an index for STDW called Spatio-Temporal Bitmap Index, or STB-index. The proposed index was designed to processing drill-down and roll-up queries considering the existence of predefined spatial hierarchies and with spatial attributes that can vary its position and shape over time. The validation of STB-index was performed by conducting experimental tests using a DWET created from synthetic data. Tests evaluated the elapsed time and the number of disk accesses to construct the index, the amount of storage space of the index and the elapsed time and the number of disk accesses for query processing. Results were compared with query processing using database management system resources and STBindex improved the query performance by 98.12% up to 99.22% in response time compared to materialized views. / A crescente preocupação com o suporte ao processo de tomada de decisão estratégica fez com que as empresas buscassem tecnologias que apoiassem as suas decisões. A tecnologia mais utilizada atualmente é a de Data Warehouse (DW), que permite armazenar dados de forma que seja possível produzir informação útil e confiável para auxiliar na tomada de decisão estratégica. Aliando-se os conceitos de Data Warehouse Espacial (DWE), que permite o armazenamento e o gerenciamento de geometrias, e de Data Warehouse Temporal (DWT), que possibilita representar as mudanças nos dados que ocorrem no mundo real, surgiu o tema de pesquisa conhecido por Data Warehouse Espaço-Temporal (DWET), que é próprio para o tratamento de geometrias que se alteram ao longo do tempo. Essas tecnologias, aliadas ao constante crescimento no volume de dados armazenados, evidenciam a necessidade de estruturas de indexação que melhorem o desempenho do processamento de consultas analíticas com predicados espaciais e com variação das geometrias no tempo. Nesse sentido, este trabalho se concentrou na proposta de um índice para DWET denominado Spatio- Temporal Bitmap Index, ou STB-index. O índice proposto foi projetado para o processamento de consultas do tipo drill-down e roll-up considerando a existência de hierarquias espaciais predefinidas, sendo que os atributos espaciais podem variar sua posição e sua forma ao longo do tempo. A validação do STB-index ocorreu por meio da realização de testes experimentais utilizando um DWET criado a partir de dados sintéticos. Os testes avaliaram o tempo e o número de acessos a disco para a construção do índice, a quantidade de espaço para armazenamento do índice e o tempo e número de acessos a disco para o processamento de consultas analíticas. Os resultados obtidos foram comparados com o processamento de consultas utilizando os recursos disponíveis dos sistemas gerenciadores de banco de dados, sendo que o STB-index apresentou um ganho de desempenho entre 98,12% e 99,22% no tempo de resposta das consultas se comparado ao uso de visões materializadas.

Submitted by Viviane Lima da Cunha (viviane@biblioteca.ufpb.br) on 2017-07-27T12:49:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 7019018 bytes, checksum: 871823e939a6e022aaadd5b6b55b3dab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-27T12:49:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 7019018 bytes, checksum: 871823e939a6e022aaadd5b6b55b3dab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-31 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This Master thesis studies the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture in the Guaraíra experimental watershed, located on the southern coast of Paraíba. As it is an experimental basin, it is of great importance to know how its variables work and interact together, in order to allow inferences in similar basins. In that case, the soil moisture play a role responsible for several factors in the watershed, like flow generation, drought development and groundwater recharge, for example. Initially, being a small watershed, (5,84 km²) it was believed that its results related to soil moisture should be very homogeneus, however, a hypothesis was made about how the different soil and vegetation cover between each station could make an influence in the results. The research had as its main objective to study the spatio-temporal variability on the soil moisture on the said study area, in order to use these information as subsidy to similar basins, even bigger ones. For this it was used data from the TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) soil moisture probes installed at five stations and pluviographs in the study area combined with manual collection for calibration and validation of the probe’s results since april 2013 until September 2014. This way, it was possible to apply the methods used by Vachaud et al. (1985( and Mittelbach & Seneviratne (2012), with the disconnection of the resilts of soil moisture into its variable and invariable parts on time, which consist in the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture analysis. As the TDR probes used to measure soil moisture give a temporal resolution of one hour, an analysis of temporal resolution was proceeded, allowing to use diary data in order to represent the soil moisture, without significant variation of results. The results confirmed the homogeneity of spatio-temporal variability of the soil moisture in the basin, except for the station with less vegetation cover, where the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture differed significantly from the rest of the basin. Thus, it was perceived the similiraty between the results of soil moisture in the terms of temporal mean and anomalies, for the stations with similar vegetation cover. This way, it was concluded that the fact that the results of the station with less vegetation cover had been so different is due to its lack of vegetation cover, being very different from the rest of the basin, thus enhancing the importance of vegetacion cover as a natural controller of soil moisture. As to the temporal variability, that is more susceptible to climatic effect, like precipitation for example, while the spatial-variability is more related to the invariable terms on time. Yet, the calibration of the probes was successfully executed and they do represent well the soil moisture for that study area, allowing continuous monitoring on that experimental basin. / Este trabalho tem como objeto de estudo a variabilidade espaço-temporal da umidade do solo na bacia hidrográfica experimental do riacho Guaraíra, localizada na região litorânea sul do Estado da Paraíba. Tratando-se de uma bacia experimental, é de suma importância conhecer como funcionam e interagem entre si seus variados elementos, afim de possibilitar inferências em bacias semelhantes. Nisto, a umidade do solo é responsável por vários outros fatores na bacia hidrográfica, tais quais geração de vazão, desenvolvimento de secas e recarga de aquíferos, por exemplo. Inicialmente, por ser uma área pequena (5,84 km²), acreditava-se que os seus resultados relativos à umidade do solo seriam bastante homogêneos, entretanto, pensou-se na hipótese de os diferentes solos e vegetações de cada estação poderem influenciar no comportamento da umidade do solo. A pesquisa teve então como principal objetivo estudar a variabilidade espaço-temporal da umidade do solo na referida área de estudo, de forma a utilizar estas informações como subsídio para bacias semelhantes, podendo até serem de maior porte. Para isto, utilizaram-se dados das sondas de umidade do solo do tipo TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) e pluviógrafos instalados em cinco locais da bacia experimental, aliados à coletas manuais para calibração e validação dos resultados destas sondas durante o período de abril de 2013 até setembro de 2014. Com isto, aplicaram-se os métodos propostos por Vachaud et al. (1985) e Mittelbach & Seneviratne (2012), que permitem a separação da umidade do solo em suas parcelas variáveis e invariáveis no tempo, que consistem na análise de variabilidade espaço-temporal da umidade do solo. Como as sondas TDR utilizadas para medição da umidade fornecem uma resolução temporal de uma hora, procedeu-se uma avaliação desta resolução temporal que permitiu utilizar dados diários para representar as umidades dos solos, sem variação significativa de resultados. Os resultados confirmaram a homogeneidade da variabilidade espaço-temporal da umidade do solo na bacia experimental, com a exceção da estação que possui menor cobertura vegetal, onde a variabilidade espaço-temporal da umidade do solo diferiu significativamente do resto da bacia. Ainda, percebeu-se a semelhança entre os resultados de umidade do solo das estações com cobertura vegetal semelhantes em termos tanto de média temporal quanto de anomalias. Desta forma, concluiu-se que, o fato de os resultados da estação com pouca cobertura vegetal terem sido tão diferentes na época chuvosa deve-se justamente à esta falta de cobertura vegetal, diferente das outras estações, reforçando a importância da cobertura vegetal como um controlador natural da umidade do solo. Quanto à variabilidade temporal, esta é mais sujeita aos efeitos climáticos, como por exemplo a precipitação, enquanto que a variabilidade espacial está mais atrelada aos termos invariáveis no tempo. Ainda, a calibração das sondas foi efetuada com sucesso e representam bem a umidade do solo para a área de estudo, tornando possível o contínuo monitoramento desta bacia experimental.

Dans cette thèse,nous étudions comment exploiter des contraintes spatio-temporelles,notamment le principe d'impossibilité de transmission supraluminique,dans le but de créer des primitives cryptographiques sûres,par exemple la vérification de position ou la "mise en gage de bit''(bit commitment). D'après le principe d'impossibilité de transmission supraluminique,aucun vecteur physique d'information ne peut voyager plus vite que la vitesse de la lumière. Ce principe entraîne une contrainte sur le temps de communication entre deux points éloignés. Ce délai dans le transfert d'information peut être utilisé comme une contrainte temporelle interdisant la communication. En cryptographie multi-agents,il est connu que l'hypothèse de non-communication entre les agents permet de réaliser de manière sécurisée de nombreuses primitives comme la "mise en gage de bit'' et l'un des buts de cette thèse est de comprendre à quel point les contraintes spatio-temporelles peuvent être exploitèes pour simuler des scénarios de non-communication. Dans la première partie de cette thèse nous étudions comment utiliser une contrainte de non-communication pour essayer de vérifier la position d'une personne.Dans la dernière partie,nous nous penchons sur deux exemples de protocoles de ``mise en gage de bit'' relativistes afin d'en étudier la sécurité contre des adversaires classiques. Pour conclure cette thèse,nous mentionnons quelques problèmes ouverts intéréssants. Ces problèmes ouverts peuvent être très utiles pour comprendre le rôle de contraintes spatio-temporelles,par exemple de l'impossibilité de transmission supraluminique,dans la conception de primitives cryptographiques parfaitement sûres. / In this thesis we have studied how to exploit relativistic constraints such as the non-superluminal signalling principle to design secure cryptographic primitives like position-verification and bit commitment. According to non-superluminal signalling principle, no physical carrier of information can travel faster than the speed of light. This put a constraint on the communication time between two distant stations. One can consider this delay in information transfer as a temporal non-communication constraint. Cryptographic primitives like bit-commitment, oblivious transfer can be implemented with perfect secrecy under such non-communication assumption between the agents. The first part of this thesis has studied how non-signalling constraints can be used for secure position verification. Here, we have discussed about a strategy which can attack any position verification scheme. In the next part of this thesis we have discussed about the nonlocal games, relevant for studying relativistic bit commitment protocols. We have established an upper bound on the classical value of such family of games. The last part of this thesis discusses about two relativistic bit commitment protocols and their security against classical adversaries. We conclude this thesis by giving a brief summary of the content of each chapter and mentioning interesting open problems. These open problems can be very useful for better understanding of the role of spacetime constraints such as non-superluminal signalling in designing perfectly secure cryptographic primitives.

Informações que caracterizam o risco quebra de produção agrícola são necessárias para a precificação de prêmio do seguro agrícola de produção e de renda. A distribuição de probabilidade da variável rendimento agrícola é uma dessas informações, em especial aquela que descreve a variável aleatória rendimento agrícola condicionada aos fatores de risco climáticos. Este trabalho objetiva aplicar redes Bayesianas (grafo acíclico direcionado, ou modelo hierárquico Bayesiano) a estimação da distribuição de probabilidade de rendimento da soja em alguns municípios do Paraná, com foco na analise comparativa de riscos. Dados meteorológicos (ANA e INMET, período de 1970 a 2011) e de sensoriamento remoto (MODIS, período de 2000 a 2011) são usados conjuntamente para descrever espacialmente o risco climático de quebra de produção. Os dados de rendimento usados no estudo (COAMO, período de 2001 a 2011) requerem agrupamento de todos os dados ao nível municipal e, para tanto, a seleção de dados foi realizada nas dimensões espacial e temporal por meio de um mapa da cultura da soja (estimado por SVM - support vector machine) e os resultados de um algoritmo de identificação de ciclo de culturas. A interpolação requerida para os dados de temperatura utilizou uma componente de tendência estimada por dados de sensoriamento remoto, para descrever variações espaciais da variável que são ofuscadas pelos métodos tradicionais de interpolação. Como resultados, identificou-se relação significativa entre a temperatura observada por estações meteorológicas e os dados de sensoriamento remoto, apoiando seu uso conjunto nas estimativas. O classificador que estima o mapa da cultura da soja apresenta sobre-ajuste para safras das quais as amostras usadas no treinamento foram coletadas. Além da seleção de dados, a identificação de ciclo também permitiu obtenção de distribuições de datas de plantio da cultura da soja para o estado do Paraná. As redes bayesianas apresentam grande potencial e algumas vantagens quando aplicadas na modelagem de risco agrícola. A representação da distribuição de probabilidade por um grafo facilita o entendimento de problemas complexos, por suposições de causalidade, e facilita o ajuste, estruturação e aplicação do modelo probabilístico. A distribuição log-normal demonstrou-se a mais adequada para a modelagem das variáveis de ambiente (soma térmica, chuva acumulada e maior período sem chuva), e a distribuição beta para produtividade relativa e índices de estado (amplitude de NDVI e de EVI). No caso da regressão beta, o parâmetro de precisão também foi modelado com dependência das variáveis explicativas melhorando o ajuste da distribuição. O modelo probabilístico se demonstrou pouco representativo subestimando bastante as taxas de prêmio de seguro em relação a taxas praticadas no mercado, mas ainda assim apresenta contribui para o entendimento comparativo de situações de risco de quebra de produção da cultura da soja. / Information that characterize the risk of crop losses are necessary to crop and revenue insurance underwriting. The probability distribution of yield is one of this information. This research applies Bayesian networks (direct acyclic graph, or hierarchical Bayesian model) to estimate the probability distribution of soybean yield for some counties in Paraná state (Brazil) with focus on risk comparative analysis. Meteorological data (ANA and INMET, from 1970 to 2011) and remote sensing data (MODIS, from 2001 to 2011) were used to describe spatially the climate risk of production loss. The yield data used in this study (COAMO, from 2001 to 2011) required grouping to county level and, for that, a process of data selection was performed on spatial and temporal dimensions by a crop map (estimated by SVM - support vector machine) and by the results of a crop cycle identification algorithm. The interpolation required to spatialize temperature required a trend component which was estimated by remote sensing data, to describe the spatial variations of the variable obfuscated by traditional interpolation methods. As results, a significant relation between temperature from meteorological stations and remote sensing data was found, sustaining the use of the supposed relation between the two variables. The soybean map classifier shown over-fitting for the crop seasons for which the training samples were collected. Besides the data collection, a seeding dates distribution of soybean in Paraná state was obtained from the crop cycle identification process. The Bayesian networks showed big potential and some advantages when applied to agronomic risk modeling. The representation of the probability distribution by graphs helps the understanding of complex problems, with causality suppositions, and also helps the fitting, structuring and application of the probabilistic model. The log-normal probability distribution showed to be the best to model environment variables (thermal sum, accumulated precipitation and biggest period without rain), and the beta distribution to be the best to model relative yield and state indexes (NDVI and EVI ranges). In the case of beta regression, the precision parameter was also modeled with explanation variables as dependencies increasing the quality of the distribution fitting. In the overall, the probabilistic model had low representativity underestimating the premium rates, however it contributes to understand scenarios with risk of yield loss for the soybean crop.