本研究以美國歐巴馬政府之「重返亞太」戰略，以及美國於亞太地區所倡導「太平洋經濟合作協議」──TPP為研究標的，並以國家利益理論為研究理論基礎，分析美國面對亞太地區經濟力的強勁成長，以及中國大陸以飛奔之勢成為世界第二大經濟體，美國基於國家利益而開始主導TPP之成立與運作。在這過程之中，美國與中國之戰略如何運用?而台灣在國民黨與民進黨兩大黨都支持加入TPP的情況下，台灣加入TPP之途，到底可能面對那些中國與美國的戰略運用?台灣加入TPP之利與弊各有那些?本研究以以歷史研究法、文獻分析法為研究方法，經由所得文獻之整理、分析、歸納，提出本研究之研究成果有三項: 一、中國國力提升將拉高台灣進入TPP的機會 隨著中國國力提升，美國對中國的「圍堵」，將更加緊繃嚴密，台灣角色必然也會越來越突顯，在美國強力圍堵的戰略運作下，台灣進入TPP之機會越來越高。 二、 海島型經濟特色的台灣，向區域開放市場，是台灣唯一的選擇 台灣海島型經濟，產業大幅仰賴出口，目前中國大陸又是台灣主要出口的地區，面對市場主要對手如南韓、日本已積極簽署FTA，台灣必須積極投入，才不致被邊緣化，中國大陸市場也才不會被對手所取代。 三、TPP與FTA是全球化趨勢下的必然結果 在各式區域經貿協議之中，施行零關稅及強調非關稅的壁壘，簡化文書作業及海關程序，更是打破國與國之間疆，使得關稅制度保護本土產品的制度設計初衷，不復存在，如此強者愈強，弱者愈弱，區域經濟形成一種M型化的競爭態勢。 / This thesis focuses on strategy of U.S. Pivot to Asia Pacific region and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with the theory of state interest to analyze how the U.S. manages the establishment and operation of TPP on the consideration of the strong economic growth of Asia-Pacific region and the status of rising China as the second largest economic entity around the world. During the process, what is the strategy of the U.S. and China? On the other hand, under the domestic support of two major parties in Taiwan to join TPP, Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on the way to join TPP, what diplomatic strategies will Taiwan confront when it deals with China and the U.S.? In other words, what are the pros and cons for Taiwan to join TPP? Based on historical analysis, document analysis, this thesis found three major findings: 1. The increase of power of Rising China will enhance the opportunity of Taiwan to join TPP As China’s state power increases, the U.S. will adopt much more serious “Containment” strategies. Under this circumstance, the role of Taiwan will become much more important. Therefore, under the intense U.S. containment strategies, the opportunities for Taiwan to join TPP will become higher. 2. Open market to the region is the choice for sea-island economic Taiwan Taiwan belongs to sea-island economic, which relies on export on the development of industry, and China becomes the major export partner of Taiwan. Facing the challenge of South Korea and Japan which have signed FTA with China, Taiwan has to engage in a more active way to the open market to avoid isolation on the competition of Chinese market. 3. TPP and FTA are the definite result of globalization Among all kinds of regional agreements, zero tax barrier and simplification of administration process on document and custom examination are the keys to break the obstacle between country and country. Moreover, by doing so countries could break the limitation on protecting the local products, which further fosters the M shape competition among the regional economic development between the strong and weak countries.

Nors lobizmas Lietuvoje buvo įtvirtintas 2001 metais, priėmus Lietuvos Respublikos Lobistinės veiklos įstatymą, iki šiol lietuvių teisinėje literatūroje nebuvo skiriama daug dėmesio lobizmo kaip instituto suderinamumui su Konstitucijos 59 straipsnio 4 dalyje įtvirtintu principu, jog Seimo nariai savo darbe turi vadovautis valstybės interesu. Lobizmas dažniausiai yra nagrinėjamas politikos mokslų kontekste kaip grupių interesų perdavimo priemonė. Teisinėje literatūroje yra straipsnių analizuojančių Lobistinės veiklos įstatymą, jo veikimą ar neveikimą bei kitus lobizmo įtvirtinimo aspektus. Visgi lobizmo ir konstitucinio principo, jog Seimo nariai savo darbe turi vadovautis valstybės interesu suderinamumo problema kyla tada, kai interesų grupės, pasitelkdamos lobistus, siekia savo siaurų interesų, kurie prieštarauja valstybės interesui, patenkinimo. Taigi priėmus lobizmą įteisinančius įstatymus (leidus privačioms interesų grupėms tiesiogiai daryti įtaką leidžiamajai valdžiai) kyla reali grėsmė, kad bus pažeistas Konstitucijoje įtvirtintas principas, jog įstatymų leidėjai turi vadovautis valstybės, o ne privačiais interesais. Šis baigiamasis darbas ir yra skiriamas ištirti šių dviejų institutų suderinamumą, jų reglamentavimą ir interpretavimą, nurodyti ryškiausius probleminius aspektus ir pateikti samprotavimus, kurie galėtų būti pagalbine medžiaga kitiems, susidomėjusiems šios problemos sprendimu. Tyrimo objektas – Lobistinė veikla, kuria pagal galiojančius teisės aktus... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / While lobbying in Lithuania was legitimised in 2001, after passing the Law on Lobbying Activities, up until this day legal scholars in Lithuania have not made any researches about compatibility of lobbying with the constitutional principle that legislators must act according to the state interests. Lobbying is usually examined in the context of political science as a vehicle for transmission of group interests. In legal literature some scholars analyse functionality of the Law on Lobbying Activities, but other problems of lobbying are not being analysed. This problem of compatibility lobbying and constitutional principle that legislators must act according to the state interests arise when interest groups, through lobbyists, try to satisfy their own selfish needs which are against state interests. So because the Law on Lobbying Activities was passed (private groups were allowed to influence government representatives) there is a real danger that constitutional principle which obliges legislators to act according to the state interests, not according to the private interest will be breached. This thesis is intended to investigate the compatibility of these two institutes, their regulation and to show some of the most problematic aspects which arises while trying to compare these two institutes. The object of this thesis is lobbying activities, which are in accordance with existing legislation and intended to affect the legislative decisions, and its compatibility with the... [to full text]

A credit card as a banking product has a dual nature both as a convenient loan and a payment tool. Credit card profitability prediction is a complex problem because of the variety of the card holders' behaviour patterns, a fluctuating balance, and different sources of interest and transactional income. The state of a credit card account depends on the type of card usage and payments delinquency, and can be defined as inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, and default. The proposed credit cards profit prediction model consists of four stages: i) utilisation rate and interest rate income prediction, ii) non-interest rate income prediction, iii) account state prediction with conditional transition probabilities, and iv) the aggregation of the partial models into total income estimation. This thesis describes an approach to credit card account-level profitability prediction based on multistate and multistage conditional probabilities models with different types of income and compares methods for the most accurate predictions. We use application, behavioural, card state, and macroeconomic characteristics as predictors. This thesis contains nine chapters: Introduction, Literature Review, six chapters giving descriptions of the data, methodologies and discussions of the results of the empirical investigation, and Conclusion. Introduction gives the key points and main aims of the current research and describes the general schema of the total income prediction model. Literature Review proposes a systematic analysis of academic work on loan profit modelling and highlights the gaps in the application of profit scoring to credit cards income prediction. Chapter 3 describes the data sample and gives the overview of characteristics. Chapter 4 is dedicated to the prediction of the credit limit utilisation and contains the comparative analysis of the predictive accuracy of different regression models. We apply five methods such as i) linear regression, ii) fractional regression, iii) beta-regression, iv) beta-transformation, and v) weighted logistic regression with data binary transformation for utilisation rate prediction for one- and two-stage models. Chapters 5 and 6 are dedicated to modelling the transition probabilities between credit card states. Chapter 5 describes the general model setups, model building methodology such as transition probability prediction with conditional binary logistic, ordinal, and multinomial regressions, the data sample description, the univariate analysis of predictors. Chapter 6 discusses regression estimation results for all types of regression and a comparative analysis of the models. Chapter 7 describes an approach to the non-interest rate income prediction and contains a comparative analysis of panel data regression techniques such as pooled and four random effect methods. We consider two sources of non-interest income generation: i) interchange fees and foreign exchange fees from transactions via pointof- sales (POS) and ii) ATM fees from cash withdrawals. We compare the predictive accuracy of a one-stage approach, which means the usage of a single linear model for the income amount estimation, and a two-stage approach, which means that the income amount conditional on the probability of POS and ATM transaction. Chapter 8 aggregates the results from the partial models into a single model for total income estimation. We assume that a credit card account does not have a single particular state and a single behavioural type in the future, but has a chance to move to any of possible states. The income prediction model is selected according to these states, and the transition probabilities are used as weights for the particular interest rate and non-interest rate income prediction models. Conclusion highlights the contributions of this research. We propose an innovative methodological approach for credit card income prediction as a system of models, which considers the estimation of the income from different sources and then aggregates the income estimations weighted by the states transition probabilities. The results of comparative analysis of regression methods for: i) utilization rate of credit limit and ii) non-interest income prediction, iii) the use of panel data with pooled and random effect for profit scoring, and iv) account level non-binary target transition probabilities estimation for credit cards can be used as benchmarks for further research and fill the gaps of empirical investigations in the literature. The estimation of the transition probability between states at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness property of the Markov Chains approach. We have investigated the significance of predictors for models of this type. The proposed modelling approach can be applied for the development of business strategies such as credit limit management, customer segmentation by the profitability and behavioural type.

臺灣，與其它後共國家政治發展經驗極為相似的，在後冷戰時代屬於身份認同的衝突成為每一個解脫威權桎梏的國家皆經歷過的歷史，政治轉型中「被壓抑者的重返」所激起的社會矛盾成為政治學與社會學研究的主題。而在民主化眾聲喧嘩的後解嚴階段，每一種集體身份在言論市場中都獲得出賽的機會，能夠囊括最大多數人的國族身份認同成為文化、社會與政治力量爭論的焦點，而能夠使大部分民眾接受的國族自我意象就越有可能取得執政的可能性，因此，國族自我意象內涵的填充以及管理是每一個政黨每日都在進行的工作，掌握意識型態領導權者就掌握了決定國家未來方向的權力 臺灣在國際社會的特殊處境使得被壓抑者的重返過程中不只要面對過去的威權體制，即便掌握國家權力者也直接面對不放棄武力犯台以及在國際上擠壓臺灣生存空間的北京政權。如何面對海峽對岸國力與國際影響力迅速增長的大國，成為國內政治、社會與文化力量在界定我們是誰、我們要往何處去等集體身份與目標時，都無法迴避這個無所不在的中國因素。在台灣每一種國族自我意象的生成過程都無法迴避中國因素，臺北的中國/大陸政策的制定過程即國族身份政治投射其熱情與利益的訴求的過程，過去的研究已經花費相當多的資源在探討臺灣社會面的國族身份形成與動員，而未系統性地對國族身份認同政治與政策產出之間的關係進行探究。 有鑑於每一位總統都反映與代表了在社會中流行的國族我意象，作為某特定國族自我意象的代表，他根據國族自我意象而揭示的國家政治目的以及提昇集體尊嚴感的目標制訂與執行的中國/大陸政策。因此，本研究從執政者每日的言論進行系統性的分析，主要探究的是不同的國族自我意象變成具有官方身份的國族身份之後會如何形塑對中國的認知，本研究的焦點是中國威脅的認知，當中國威脅認知升高，臺北制訂緊縮性的中國/大陸政策的可能性就提高了。國族自我意象固然有其穩定性，但也具備流動性，國族自我意象是靈活還是僵固地就「中國威脅」進行協商，成為臺北制訂中國/大陸政策的依據，從而帶來緊張還是和緩的兩岸關係。 / Taiwan’s post-cold war national identity issue is quite similar to other post-communist countries. Free speech made national identity issues going public much easier as Marshall Law was lifted. The social conflict agitated by “The Return of the Repressed” during democratic transition era was not only make new social cleavage possible but also giving birth to new political landscape. Every fractions of national identity has the chance to win the game but only those who supported by most of the population could arouse societal attention and get more chances to win the election. The social engineering of contents and contestations of national identities is so important to those who dedicated to their political life. As George Orwell ever mentioned 66 years ago: “Who controls the past controls the future, who controls the present controls the past.” The Chineseness and Beijing who acclaimed PRC is the only legitimate country that represent China become very “significant other” to Taiwanese national identity formation from 1980s to now. Many scholars have been studied the nation-formation and state-building process but a few of them linking that processes and cross-strait and diplomatic policies made by Taipei altogether. This study is trying to fill this gap. As every president of the state is the symbol and entrepreneur of distinct national identity, getting at the root of state or national interest means digging out what elites’ identified as nation’s political purposes and international status of the state. This thesis focused on how national identity, the broadest collectively held idea in one country, brings about Taiwan’s state interest where Taipei’s China policy and its implications for cross-strait relations lied.

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