<p><strong>Syfte: </strong>Syftet med denna undersökning är att studera råvaruprisets samt aktiemarknadens prestationer i form av procentuell avkastning under olika konjunkturlägen från år 1969 och fram till 2009. Samt att studera råvarumarknadens reaktion vid börsfall. Marknaderna ställs dessutom i relation till varandra. Detta görs genom tre delsyften: Hur presterar råvaror i relation till aktiemarknaden i hög- respektive lågkonjunktur? Ökar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden i samma konjunkturlägen? Hur har råvarumarknaden till skillnad från aktiemarknaden reagerat vid större börsfall?</p><p><strong>Metod: </strong>Undersökningen är kvantitativ, deduktiv samt utgår från primärdata ansamlad via vedertagna källor och databaser. För att uppfylla syftet innefattar denna undersökning två olika metoder. Metod 1behandlar avkastning i olika konjunkturlägen och Metod 2 består av en eventstudie av råvaruprisernas reaktioner vid tidigare börsfall.</p><p><strong>Teori: </strong>Undersökningen bygger delvis på hypotesen om effektiva marknader och innefattar tidigare forskning om faktorer som påverkar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden.</p><p><strong>Empiri: </strong>Mellan åren 1969 – 2009 konstaterades fyra olika konjunkturlägen med 5 högkonjunkturslägen, 6 lågkonjunkturslägen, 3 övergångsår mot högkonjunktur, 5 övergångsår mot lågkonjunktur. Aktiemarknadens totala avkastning för hela perioden var 973,7 %, majs hade 250,9 %, vete 300 %, olja 169 %, guld 495,8 % och koppar 555,2 %. Sammanslaget för samtliga råvaror och börsfall var det endast olja som fick ett svagt positivt CAAR, resterande fick ett negativt CAAR där aktiemarknaden hade -1,02762, olja 0,01325, guld -0,05511, koppar -0,10297, vete -0,1812 samt majs - 0,1859.</p><p><strong>Analys/Slutsats</strong></p><ul><li>I regel har både råvarornas och aktiemarknadens avkastning varit bättre under högkonjunktur än lågkonjunktur, däremot har guld en negativ korrelation mot aktiemarknaden vilket resulterar i att råvarans pris minskar när aktiemarknaden går bra och ökar när aktiemarknaden går dåligt. </li><li>Det finns inget statistiskt säkerställt samband utifrån denna undersökning som tyder på att råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden följer varandra genom konjunkturlägen.</li><li>Råvarornas CAAR är nästintill obefintliga i en antingen negativ eller positiv riktning. Därmed är reaktionerna på börsfallen nästan obefintliga och med ett <em>r</em> på – 0,171 och en tillförlitlighetsnivå på 20-30 % går det inte att statistiskt säkerställa ett samband mellan reaktionerna hos råvarorna och börsfallet.</li></ul> / <p><strong>Purpose: </strong>The aim with this survey is to examine and compare the commodity price and the stock market performance in terms of percentage yield during different business cycles from 1969 to 2009. And then examine the reaction on the commodity price in timer of a major downturn. This will be done by answering a three part purpose: How do commodities and the stock market perform during different business cycles? Do both commodities and the stock market show positive yield during the same business cycle? How do commodities react to a major downturn in the stock market?</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study is quantitative, deductive, and is based on raw data accumulated from conventional sources and databases. To fulfill the purpose this study includes two different methods. Method 1examine the yield in different business situations and Method 2 consists of an event study of the commodity stock market reactions to previous downturns in the stock market.</p><p><strong>Theoretical: </strong>This study is partly based on the hypothesis of efficient markets and includes previous research on factors affecting commodity prices and stock markets.</p><p><strong>Empirical: </strong>Between the years 1969 - 2009 four different cyclical positions was found, 5 boom positions, 6 recessions’ positions, 3 transition years towards an economic boom, 5 transition years towards recession. The stock market's total returns for the entire period was 973.7%, 250.9% had corn, wheat 300%, 169% oil, gold and copper 495.8% 555.2%. Aggregated for all commodities and stock market, oil was the only object that had a slightly positive CAAR, the others had a negative CAAR where the stock market had, -1.02762, oil 0.01325, gold -0.05511, copper -0.10297, wheat -0 , 1812, and corn - 0.1859.</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p><ul><li>In general, both commodities and stock market returns have been better than during the boom then times of recession, however, gold has a negative correlation to equity markets, which results in a decreases commodity price as the stock market is doing well and increasing when the stock market goes bad. </li><li>There is no statistically significant correlation from this study that suggests that commodity prices and stock markets follow each other through the business cycle.</li><li>Commodities CAAR is virtually nonexistent in either a positive or negative direction. Thus, the reactions to the stock market is almost nonexistent, and with an <em>r</em> of - 0.171 and a confidence level of 20-30% the link between the reactions of commodities and stock markets cannot be statistically ensure. </li></ul>

<p>In this thesis, we conduct a case study by applying simple technical trading rules on Chinese stock market. The technical trading rules we tested are moving average rules and trading range breakout rules. The stock indices we tested are SSE A (Shanghai A) and SZSE (Shenzhen A) share, these shares are limited to the Chinese domestic traders. Our main trading rule frameworks are mainly from Brock, Lakonishok& Lebaron (1992), which including the most basic technical trading rules and covered various length of period, however we add the 25 days moving average to our frame work. We obtained our data from DataStream; the data are the daily closing prices of two indices we mentioned above.</p><p>We compared the mean return and Sharpe ratio with buy and hold. We further calculated breakeven transaction costs to test whether the technical trading rules can still add wealth to investors after adjusting the transaction costs. Our results showed that most technical trading rules perform better than buy and hold. VMA perform better than FMA and TRB, short period (25 and 50 days) performed better than longer period. On mean return, our data violated the assumption of parametric statistical test. We performed non-parametric tests, all the trading rules showed statistical significance at 95% level than buy and hold except FMA (1, 25,0), all the trading rules resulted higher Sharpe ratio than buy and hold. On transaction costs, 7 trading rules on SSE A are performed poorer than buy and hold, all the other rules provided positive breakeven transaction costs. Across the entire trading rule, both stock markets offered positive break-even transaction costs, 0.436% for SSE A and 1.369% for SZSE A. and they are both higher than the maximum transaction costs one bears.</p>

Does monetary policy affect the real economy? If so, what is the transmission mechanism or channel through which these effects occur? These two questions are among the most important and controversial in macroeconomics. This dissertation presents some new empirical evidence that addresses each question for the U.S. and Chinese economies. Literature on monetary transmission suggests that the monetary policy can take effect on the real economy through several ways. The most noteworthy one is credit channels, including the bank lending channel and the interest channel. First, I use a new method to test for structural breaks in the U.S. monetary policy history and present some new empirical evidence to support an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Results show that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1955 to 1968, and its impact on the economy has become much smaller since 1981, but it still has a significant buffering effect on output by attenuating the effect of the interest channel. Second, I adopt the recently developed time series technique to explore the puzzling negative correlation between output and stock returns in China currently, and posit that it is due to a negative link between monetary policy and stock returns when monetary policy increases output. The monetary policy has not been transmitted well in the public sector which is the principal part of Chinese stock market, and increased investment capital from monetary expansion goes to real estate sector instead of the stock market. Last, I demonstrate how monetary policy has been transmitted into the public and private sectors of China through the credit channel. The fundamental identification problem inherent in using aggregated data that leads to failure in isolating demand shock from supply shock is explicitly solved by introducing control factors. I find that the monetary policy has great impact on private sector rather than public sector through credit channel in China. These findings have important practical implications for U.S. and China’s economic development by improving the efficiency of the monetary policy because a comprehensive understanding of monetary transmission will lead to better policy design.

The purpose of this Bachelor thesis is to analyze if there is a correlation between stock prices and the amount of searches of the companies names on Google. The theories used in the study were Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Regressions analysis is used as the statistical method to see if there is a significant correlation between the stock prices and the amout of searches of the company name on Google. The data used were the rate of return of three companies (ABB, Oriflame and Sandvik) on the Nasdaq OMX Nordic stock market, the rate of return of the Nasdaq OMX Nordic stock market index (OMX Stockholm_PI) and the Google search frequency from Google Trends on each company. The result showed no significance and the conclusion of the thesis is that there is no significant correlation between the three studied companies and their search frequency on the search engine Google. / Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka ifall det finns ett samband mellan företags aktiekurser och sökfrekvens på företagets namn på söktjänsten Google. Data: Daglig avkastning på ABB:s, Oriflames och Sandviks aktier, Aktieindex samt Googels sökfrekvens. Teorier: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Effektiva marknadshypotesen (EMH) Slutsats: Det råder inget signifikant samband mellan de undersökta företagens aktiekurser och deras företagsnamns sökfrekvens på söktjänsten Google.

In this thesis, we conduct a case study by applying simple technical trading rules on Chinese stock market. The technical trading rules we tested are moving average rules and trading range breakout rules. The stock indices we tested are SSE A (Shanghai A) and SZSE (Shenzhen A) share, these shares are limited to the Chinese domestic traders. Our main trading rule frameworks are mainly from Brock, Lakonishok&amp; Lebaron (1992), which including the most basic technical trading rules and covered various length of period, however we add the 25 days moving average to our frame work. We obtained our data from DataStream; the data are the daily closing prices of two indices we mentioned above. We compared the mean return and Sharpe ratio with buy and hold. We further calculated breakeven transaction costs to test whether the technical trading rules can still add wealth to investors after adjusting the transaction costs. Our results showed that most technical trading rules perform better than buy and hold. VMA perform better than FMA and TRB, short period (25 and 50 days) performed better than longer period. On mean return, our data violated the assumption of parametric statistical test. We performed non-parametric tests, all the trading rules showed statistical significance at 95% level than buy and hold except FMA (1, 25,0), all the trading rules resulted higher Sharpe ratio than buy and hold. On transaction costs, 7 trading rules on SSE A are performed poorer than buy and hold, all the other rules provided positive breakeven transaction costs. Across the entire trading rule, both stock markets offered positive break-even transaction costs, 0.436% for SSE A and 1.369% for SZSE A. and they are both higher than the maximum transaction costs one bears.

Syfte: Syftet med denna undersökning är att studera råvaruprisets samt aktiemarknadens prestationer i form av procentuell avkastning under olika konjunkturlägen från år 1969 och fram till 2009. Samt att studera råvarumarknadens reaktion vid börsfall. Marknaderna ställs dessutom i relation till varandra. Detta görs genom tre delsyften: Hur presterar råvaror i relation till aktiemarknaden i hög- respektive lågkonjunktur? Ökar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden i samma konjunkturlägen? Hur har råvarumarknaden till skillnad från aktiemarknaden reagerat vid större börsfall? Metod: Undersökningen är kvantitativ, deduktiv samt utgår från primärdata ansamlad via vedertagna källor och databaser. För att uppfylla syftet innefattar denna undersökning två olika metoder. Metod 1behandlar avkastning i olika konjunkturlägen och Metod 2 består av en eventstudie av råvaruprisernas reaktioner vid tidigare börsfall. Teori: Undersökningen bygger delvis på hypotesen om effektiva marknader och innefattar tidigare forskning om faktorer som påverkar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden. Empiri: Mellan åren 1969 – 2009 konstaterades fyra olika konjunkturlägen med 5 högkonjunkturslägen, 6 lågkonjunkturslägen, 3 övergångsår mot högkonjunktur, 5 övergångsår mot lågkonjunktur. Aktiemarknadens totala avkastning för hela perioden var 973,7 %, majs hade 250,9 %, vete 300 %, olja 169 %, guld 495,8 % och koppar 555,2 %. Sammanslaget för samtliga råvaror och börsfall var det endast olja som fick ett svagt positivt CAAR, resterande fick ett negativt CAAR där aktiemarknaden hade -1,02762, olja 0,01325, guld -0,05511, koppar -0,10297, vete -0,1812 samt majs - 0,1859. Analys/Slutsats I regel har både råvarornas och aktiemarknadens avkastning varit bättre under högkonjunktur än lågkonjunktur, däremot har guld en negativ korrelation mot aktiemarknaden vilket resulterar i att råvarans pris minskar när aktiemarknaden går bra och ökar när aktiemarknaden går dåligt. Det finns inget statistiskt säkerställt samband utifrån denna undersökning som tyder på att råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden följer varandra genom konjunkturlägen. Råvarornas CAAR är nästintill obefintliga i en antingen negativ eller positiv riktning. Därmed är reaktionerna på börsfallen nästan obefintliga och med ett r på – 0,171 och en tillförlitlighetsnivå på 20-30 % går det inte att statistiskt säkerställa ett samband mellan reaktionerna hos råvarorna och börsfallet. / Purpose: The aim with this survey is to examine and compare the commodity price and the stock market performance in terms of percentage yield during different business cycles from 1969 to 2009. And then examine the reaction on the commodity price in timer of a major downturn. This will be done by answering a three part purpose: How do commodities and the stock market perform during different business cycles? Do both commodities and the stock market show positive yield during the same business cycle? How do commodities react to a major downturn in the stock market? Methods: The study is quantitative, deductive, and is based on raw data accumulated from conventional sources and databases. To fulfill the purpose this study includes two different methods. Method 1examine the yield in different business situations and Method 2 consists of an event study of the commodity stock market reactions to previous downturns in the stock market. Theoretical: This study is partly based on the hypothesis of efficient markets and includes previous research on factors affecting commodity prices and stock markets. Empirical: Between the years 1969 - 2009 four different cyclical positions was found, 5 boom positions, 6 recessions’ positions, 3 transition years towards an economic boom, 5 transition years towards recession. The stock market's total returns for the entire period was 973.7%, 250.9% had corn, wheat 300%, 169% oil, gold and copper 495.8% 555.2%. Aggregated for all commodities and stock market, oil was the only object that had a slightly positive CAAR, the others had a negative CAAR where the stock market had, -1.02762, oil 0.01325, gold -0.05511, copper -0.10297, wheat -0 , 1812, and corn - 0.1859. Conclusion In general, both commodities and stock market returns have been better than during the boom then times of recession, however, gold has a negative correlation to equity markets, which results in a decreases commodity price as the stock market is doing well and increasing when the stock market goes bad. There is no statistically significant correlation from this study that suggests that commodity prices and stock markets follow each other through the business cycle. Commodities CAAR is virtually nonexistent in either a positive or negative direction. Thus, the reactions to the stock market is almost nonexistent, and with an r of - 0.171 and a confidence level of 20-30% the link between the reactions of commodities and stock markets cannot be statistically ensure.

This paper is a study on how U.S stock market reacts on sovereign credit rating announcements, and if there is a significant difference between low or high debt firms. We have used an event study based on historical stock prices from 30 companies, 15 with high debt and 15 with low debt. All companies are taken from the S&amp;P`s 500 index which we also use as a market index. We use a regression model with 10 % significance level to see if there is a significant impact on high debt firms. Our result shows that the market will be affected by the downgrade. We also conclude that there was a significant negative impact on the high debt firms.

Inledning: Bolagsskandaler runt om i världen har bidragit till ett strängare sätt att reglera hur bolagen styrs. Enron och WorldCom är två nordamerikanska bolag som varit bidragande orsak till den amerikanska lagstiftningen Sarbanes Oxley Act, SOX, vilken reglerar bolagsstyrningen i USA. Efter detta har den moderna världen valt att införa någon sorts normbildning kring ämnet bolagsstyrning. Sverige har följt utvecklingen genom att under 2005 införa Svensk kod för bolagsstyrning på börsbolag med ett börsvärde över 3 miljarder kronor. Under andra halvåret 2008 kommer Koden att utvidgas för att omfatta ett större antal börsnoterade bolag i Sverige med börsvärden under 3 miljarder kronor. Syfte: Syftet är att undersöka vad representanter för de bolag som ej ännu omfattas av Svensk kod för bolagsstyrning samt vad revisorer anser om planerna på att införa Koden för börsnoterade bolag med ett börsvärde under tre miljarder svenska kronor. Syftet är även att utifrån den information som införskaffas försöka formulera förslag på ett sätt att göra införandet smidigare för de aktuella bolagen. Metod: Den metod vi valt att använda är ett fenomenologisk förhållningssätt till undersökningen, samt att vi valt att genomföra ett induktivt forskningsprojekt med en kvalitativ forskningsansats. Vi har gjort sex intervjuer, varav fem med företagsrepresentanter och en revisor, samt deltagit på ett seminarium berörande ämnet Svensk kod för bolagsstyrning och dess vidare införande på mindre börsnoterade bolag. Slutsats: Den slutsats som framkommit genom denna undersökning är att uppfattningen om Koden skiljer sig mellan bolag med olika ägarstrukturer, där bolag med dominerande ägare inte ser lika stor nytta med Koden som de med spridd ägarkrets. Kunskapen om Koden i de bolag som undersökts är i dagsläget ganska bristfällig, vilket kan göra att de inte ser nyttan med Koden. I slutsatsen har vi även sammanställt fem punkter som vi anser kan underlätta implementeringen av Koden för de bolag som har denna förändring framför sig. / Introduction: Corporate scandals all over the world have contributed to a more strict way of handling how the corporations are managed. Enron and WorldCom are two North American companies who were the roots to the American legislation Sarbanes Oxley Act, SOX, which regulate the corporate governance within USA. The modern world has as a result of this chosen to introduce some kind of norm within the corporate governance area. Sweden has followed the development by introducing the Swedish code for corporate governance for listed companies with a stock market value over 3 billion Swedish kronor during the year of 2005. The Code will expand during the last six-month period of 2008 to enclose a bigger number of companies listed on the stock exchange market in Sweden with a stock market value below 3 billion Swedish kronor. Purpose: The purpose is to investigate what representatives for the companies who yet have not been included by the Swedish code of corporate governance and auditors think of the plans of introducing the Code on companies with a stock market value below 3 billion Swedish kronor. The purpose is also to try to formulate a few suggestions to make the introduction as smooth as possible through the information we have received during the working procedure. Methodology: The methodology we have chosen is a phenomenological method to approach the study. We have also chosen to apply an inductive research project with a qualitative approach towards the study. We have made 6 interviews whence 5 of them with representatives from companies and 1 of them with an auditor. Besides this we have attended on a seminar about the Swedish code for corporate governance and the further introduction of the code on smaller companies listed on the stock exchange market. Conclusion: The conclusion that has emerged trough this study is that the opinions about the Code differ between companies with different owner structure. Companies with dominating owners do not understand the utility of the Code as the companies with wide owner structure. The knowledge about the Code in the companies that have been included in the study is today inadequate which can cause the consequence that they do not see the utility of the Code. In the conclusion we have also put together 5 suggestions on how to make the implementation of the Code easier for the changes that will be actualized.

Does monetary policy affect the real economy? If so, what is the transmission mechanism or channel through which these effects occur? These two questions are among the most important and controversial in macroeconomics. This dissertation presents some new empirical evidence that addresses each question for the U.S. and Chinese economies. Literature on monetary transmission suggests that the monetary policy can take effect on the real economy through several ways. The most noteworthy one is credit channels, including the bank lending channel and the interest channel. First, I use a new method to test for structural breaks in the U.S. monetary policy history and present some new empirical evidence to support an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Results show that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1955 to 1968, and its impact on the economy has become much smaller since 1981, but it still has a significant buffering effect on output by attenuating the effect of the interest channel. Second, I adopt the recently developed time series technique to explore the puzzling negative correlation between output and stock returns in China currently, and posit that it is due to a negative link between monetary policy and stock returns when monetary policy increases output. The monetary policy has not been transmitted well in the public sector which is the principal part of Chinese stock market, and increased investment capital from monetary expansion goes to real estate sector instead of the stock market. Last, I demonstrate how monetary policy has been transmitted into the public and private sectors of China through the credit channel. The fundamental identification problem inherent in using aggregated data that leads to failure in isolating demand shock from supply shock is explicitly solved by introducing control factors. I find that the monetary policy has great impact on private sector rather than public sector through credit channel in China. These findings have important practical implications for U.S. and China’s economic development by improving the efficiency of the monetary policy because a comprehensive understanding of monetary transmission will lead to better policy design.

Stock market plays an important role in the modern capital market. As a result, the prediction of financial assets attracts people in different areas. Moreover, it is commonly accepted that stock price movement generally follows a major trend. As a result, forecasting the market trend becomes an important mission for a prediction method. Accordingly, we will predict the long term trend rather than the movement of near future or change in a trading day as the target of our predicting approach. Although there are various kinds of analyses for trend prediction, most of them use clear cuts or certain thresholds to classify the trends. Users (or investors) are not informed with the degrees of confidence associated with the recommendation or the trading signal. Therefore, in this research, we would like to study an approach that could offer the confidence of the trend analysis by providing the probabilities of each possible state given its historical data through Dynamic Bayesian Network. We will incorporate the well-known principles of Dow¡¦s Theory to better model the trend of stock movements. Through the results of our experiment, we may say that the financial performance of the proposed model is able to defeat the buy and hold trading strategy when the time scope covers the entire cycle of a trend. It also means that for the long term investors, our approach has high potential to win the excess return. At the same time, the trading frequency and correspondently trading costs can be reduced significantly.