L'étude de la variabilité climatique dans les moyennes et hautes latitudes est très complexe, principalement en raison des nombreux mécanismes physiques mis en jeu. Cette variabilité climatique résulte de deux contributions majeures : la variabilité interne associée à des processus internes au système climatique et la variabilité forcée qui est liée aux forçages externes, qui peuvent être d'origine naturelle (comme le volcanisme, les aérosols naturels) ou anthropique (GES, aérosols anthropiques). Ces forçages externes jouent un rôle important sur le climat et sa variabilité. Le défi de la recherche climatique est de comprendre leurs effets sur le climat et leurs rôles face à la variabilité interne. Cette thèse a comme objectif une meilleure compréhension des rôles respectifs de la variabilité interne et des différents forçages externes sur la variabilité passée de la circulation atmosphérique dans les deux hémisphères et de l'activité synoptique associée, ainsi que de leur évolution pour le climat futur en utilisant des ré-analyses atmosphériques et des simulations issues du modèle de climat CNRM-CM5. Nous nous sommes intéressés dans un premier temps à l'étude des changements des modes annulaires dans les hémisphères nord et sud, appelés respectivement NAM (Northern Annular Mode) et SAM (Southern Annular Mode). Nous montrons que la tendance positive observée du SAM sur la période 1960-1990 en été austral est bien reproduite par le modèle. Cependant, celle-ci est reproduite lorsque la diminution d'ozone stratosphérique et l'augmentation des gaz à effet de serre sont toutes deux prescrites au modèle, alors que certaines études suggéraient qu'elle était principalement expliquée par la seule présence de l'ozone. Nous nous sommes ensuite focalisés sur les changements de circulation \linebreak atmosphérique dans l'hémisphère nord. Ceux-ci sont plus complexes que dans l'hémisphère sud. En effet, l'augmentation des GES provoque un réchauffement global différent suivant l'altitude : maximum dans la haute troposphère tropicale ainsi qu'aux hautes latitudes en surface. Ce dernier est en réalité expliqué par la fonte de la banquise Arctique. De nombreux processus physiques et de nombreuses rétroactions sont mis en jeu et rendent la compréhension des changements compliquée. Pour cela, nous avons mis en place un protocole expérimental avec le modèle couplé CNRM-CM5 pour séparer l'effet direct des GES (réchauffement de l'atmosphère) de l'effet indirect (fonte de la banquise Arctique et rétroaction sur l'atmosphère). Cette fonte est responsable de l'augmentation des flux de chaleur entre l'océan et l'atmosphère qui perturbe ensuite la circulation atmosphérique. Nous montrons que la diminution de glace de mer Arctique pourrait être à l'origine de la réponse barocline dans l'hémisphère nord. Enfin, la dernière partie de cette thèse a fait l'objet d'une étude plus spécifique, puisque l'on s'est intéressé aux évolutions passée et future des dépressions atmosphériques nord Atlantique. De nombreuses incertitudes persistent en raison de processus complexes mettant en jeu la vapeur d'eau, le gradient méridien de température et la stabilité statique. Nous retrouvons la réponse tripolaire dans le RCP8.5, mentionnée dans le 5\up{ème} rapport du GIEC, qui correspond à une diminution dans la partie sud du domaine Atlantique nord et la mer Méditerranée, une augmentation sur les îles Britanniques et la Scandinavie et une diminution à l'est du Groenland. Nous montrons que ce signal est peu robuste sur la période dite historique en raison de la forte variabilité interne associée aux systèmes dépressionnaires. / Climate variability in mid and high latitudes is very complex due to numerous physical mecanims implied. This climate variability can be decomposed into 2 components : the internal variability associated with internal processes and the forced variability linked to the external forcings which can be natutal (volcanism, natural aerosols) or anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols). These external forcings play a crucial role on the climate and its variability. The challenge in the climate research is to understand their effects on the climate and their roles relatively with the internal variability. The objective of this thesis is a better understanding of the respective roles of internal variability and forced variability on the past and future atmospheric circulation in both hemispheres characterized by the annular mode and the synoptic activity associated using atmospheric reanalysis and experiments performed with the coupled climate model CNRM-CM5. First, we focus on the annular mode changes in both hemispheres, named the NAM (Northern Annular Mode) and the SAM (Southern Annular Mode). We show that the observed positive trend of the SAM in the 1960s in austral summer is well reproduced by the climate model. However, contrarily to other studies which suggest that this positive trend can be explained by only stratospheric ozone depletion, it is reproduced in the CNRM-CM5 model when the ozone depletion and greenhouse gases (GHG) increase are both prescribed. Then, we investigate the changes in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. These are more complex than in the Southern Hemisphere. Indeed, the increase of GHG in the atmosphere causes a general global warming maximum in the tropical high troposphere and over the pole at the surface which is mainly explained by Arctic sea ice loss. So the understanding of the changes is very complex due to several physical processes and retroactions. Thus, we have conducted a protocol with the coupled climate model CNRM-CM5 in order to assess the respective role of Arctic sea ice loss and GHG increase. Arctic sea ice loss is reponsible for an increase in the heat flux between the atmosphere and the ocean which modify the atmospheric circulation. We show that Arctic sea ice loss can cause the baroclinic response in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the last part of the thesis is the study of past and future changes in the North Altantic storm-tracks. There are still sereval uncertainties because of the complex processes involving the water vapour, the meridional temperature gradient and the static stability. We find the tripolar response, already found by other studies, consisting of a significant decrease in the south of the basin and over the Mediterranean sea, a small increase over the British Isles, and a decrease east of the Greenland. We show that the signal in the historical period is not robust, due to large chaotic variability associated with storms.

Coastal cliff erosion is a widespread problem that threatens property and infrastructure along many of the world’s coastlines. The management of this risk calls for robust quantification of cliff erosion rates, which are often difficult to obtain along rocky coasts. Quantification of sea-cliff rates of retreat on annual to decadal time scales has typically been limited to rapidly eroding soft rock coastlines. Rates of erosion used for shoreline management in the UK are generally based on analysis of historic maps and aerial photographs which, in rocky coast environments, does not wholly capture the detail and timing at which the processes operate and the failures occur across the cliff face. The first stage of this study uses airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data at nine sites around a rocky coastline (Cornwall, UK) to gain a quantitative understanding of cliff erosion where average recession rates are relatively low (c. 0.1 m yr-1). It was found that three-dimensional volumetric changes on the cliff face and linear rates of retreat can be reliably calculated from consecutive digital elevation models (DEMs) several years apart. Rates of erosion ranged between 0.03–0.3 m yr-1. The spatial variability in recession rates was considered in terms of the relationship with the varying boundary conditions (rock mass characteristics, cliff geometries, beach morphology) and forcing parameters (wave climate and wave exposure). Recession rates were statistically correlated with significant wave height (Hs), rock mass characteristics (GSI) and the ratio between the two (GSI/Hs). Although the rates derived using airborne LiDAR are comparable to the longer term rates of retreat, the detail of erosion to the cliff-face provides additional insight into the processes occurring in slowly eroding environments, which are vital for understanding the failure of harder rock coastlines. In addition to this, the importance of the wave climate and rainfall needs further attention on a more localised scale. Monthly cliff face volume changes, at two particularly vulnerable sites (Porthleven and Godrevy, Cornwall, UK), were detected using a Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS). Using these volumes alongside information on beach profile, beach- cliff junction elevation changes and nearshore hydrodynamics have allowed an insight into how the cliffs respond to seasonal fluctuations in wave climate and beach morphology. Monthly variability in beach morphology between the two sites over a one-year survey period i  indicated the influence that beach slope and the elevation of the beach-cliff junction have on the frequency of inundation and the power of wave-cliff impacts. Failure mechanisms between the two sites ranged from rotational sliding of superficial material to quarrying and block removal over the entire cliff elevation, according to the extent of wave-cliff interaction. This particular survey period highlighted the sensitivity of cliff erosion to the variability in wave climate and beach morphology at two different locations in the south-west of the UK, where the vast majority (over 85% of the annual value) of cliff face erosion occurs during the winter when extreme storm waves prevail. Coastal cliff erosion from storm waves is observed worldwide but the processes are notoriously difficult to measure during extreme storm wave conditions when most erosion normally occurs, limiting our understanding of cliff processes. Over January-March 2014, during the largest Atlantic storms in at least 60 years with deep water significant wave heights of 6 – 8 m, cliff-top ground motions of a rocky cliff in the south-west of the UK (Porthleven, Cornwall) showed vertical ground displacements in excess of 50–100 μm; an order of magnitude larger than observations made previously. Repeat terrestrial laser scanner surveys, over a 2-week period encompassing the extreme storms, gave a cliff face volume loss 2 orders of magnitude larger than the long-term erosion rate. Cliff-top ground motions and erosion volumes were compared at two different locations, one a reflective beach with steeply shelving bathymetry (Porthleven, Cornwall) and the other an intermediate, low tide bar-rip beach with a wide coastal slope (Godrevy, Cornwall). Under similar wave conditions (6–8 m Hs and 15–20 s. Tp) the vertical ground motions were an order of magnitude greater at the cliffs fronted by steeply shelving bathymetry, where the breaking waves plunge right at the shoreline, with little prior dissipation, leading to large energetic runup impacting the cliff. These storm results imply that erosion of coastal cliffs exposed to extreme storm waves is highly episodic and that long-term rates of cliff erosion will depend on the frequency and severity of extreme storm wave impacts as well as the wave dissipation that occurs as a function of the nearshore bathymetry. Having recorded microseismic cliff-top motion on this scale for the first time and determined an effective method of monitoring the energetic wave impacts, this study emphasises how investigations of cliff behaviour during storms is not only obtainable, but paramount to understanding coastal evolution under extreme conditions.

Den 8:e januari 2005 inträffade en av de mest förödande stormarna i Sveriges historia då hundratusentals blev strömlösa och sju personer miste livet. Stormen Gudrun drabbade centrala Götaland värst och uppemot nio årsavverkningar skog beräknas ha fällts i vissa områden. Tidigare studier av stormen har genomförts på uppdrag av Skogsstyrelsen där resultaten visar att andel stormfälld skogsmarksareal var 11 % i värst drabbade Ljungby kommun, och ca 80 % av all den stormfällda skogen var gran, 18 % var tall och 2 % var löv. Syftet med arbetet är att undersöka mängden stormfälld skog efter stormen Gudrun genom analys av satellitburen fjärranalysdata. Även andelen stormfälld barr- och lövskog beräknades och resultaten jämfördes med de rapporter skrivna för Skogsstyrelsen. Även andelen stormfälld skog som är återbeskogad år 2016 beräknades. En förändringsanalys med satellitbilder från Landsat 5, tagna åren 2004 och 2005, genomfördes vilken inkluderade en skogsmask som skapades genom övervakad MLC-klassificering. Skogsmasken användes för att utesluta ointressanta områden i analyserna. Resultatet användes sedan för analys av andelen stormfälld barr- och lövskog samt för analys av återbeskogade områden år 2016. I den sistnämnda skapades en skogsmask med en satellitbild från Landsat 8 och som sedan användes i analysen. Resultaten från analyserna visar att ca 15,8 % av skogen stormfälldes, varav 78 % var barrskog och 13 % var lövskog. År 2016 hade ca 25 % av de stormfällda områdena återbeskogats. Noggrannheten på resultaten är generellt höga men skiljer sig trots detta väsentligt från resultaten i studierna som gjorts för Skogsstyrelsen. Anledningen till att resultaten skiljer sig åt kan bero på vilka satellitbilder och program som använts i analyserna, samt felkällor som uppkommit i samband med analyserna i denna studie. / On January 8th, 2005 one of the most devastating storms in Sweden’s history occurred, where hundreds of thousands became powerless and seven people lost their lives. The storm Gudrun hit central Götaland worst and nearly nine years’ professional felling of forests was estimated to have fallen in some areas. Previous studies of the storm were carried out on behalf of the Swedish Forest Agency, where the results show that the proportion of windthrown forest area was 11 % in the worst affected municipality of Ljungby. About 80 % of all damaged forests were spruce, 18 % were pine and 2 % were deciduous.                        The aim of this thesis is to investigate the amount of windthrown forest after the storm Gudrun through analysis of satellite remote sensing data. The proportion of windthrown coniferous and deciduous forest was calculated and the results were compared to the reports written on behalf of the Swedish Forest Agency. Furthermore, the proportion of reforested areas in 2016 was calculated. A change analysis based on satellite data from Landsat 5 from 2004 and 2005 was performed which included a forest mask created by supervised MLC classification. The forest mask was used to exclude uninteresting areas in the analyses. The result was then used for the analysis of the proportion of windthrown coniferous and deciduous forest and for the analysis of reforested areas in 2016. In the latter, a forest mask based on Landsat 8 data was used. The results from the analyses show that about 15.8 % of the forest was windthrown, of which 78 % were coniferous and 13 % were deciduous forest. By 2016, 25% of the windthrown areas had been reforested. The accuracy of the results is generally high, but despite this, it substantially differs from the results of earlier studies. The reason for this could be differences in satellite images and programs and additional error sources in conjunction with the analyses.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / The development of regional ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) models has contributed to understanding the behavior of ionospheric parameters and the coupling of the ionosphere to space weather activities on both local and global scales. In the past several decades, the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems Service (GNSS) networks of dual frequency receiver data have been applied to develop global and regional models of ionospheric TEC. These models were mainly developed in the Northern Hemisphere where there are dense network of ground based GPS receivers for regional data coverage. Such efforts have been historically rare over the African region, and have only recently begun. This thesis reports the investigation of the effect of mid-latitude magnetic storms on TEC over South Africa for portions of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. The MAGIC package was used to estimate TEC over South Africa during Post Solar Maximum, Solar Minimum, and Post Solar Minimum periods. It is found that TEC is largely determined by the diurnal cycle of solar forcing and subsequent relaxation, but effects due to storms can be determined

Cette thèse traite du comportement géomorphologique des littoraux situés entre la pointe du Grouin et Cap Fréhel. Ce littoral est composé de quatre systèmes côtiers : des côtes basses (système vaseux et système plage dune), et des côtes rocheuses (système falaise dure et système falaise meuble). La dynamique de ces systèmes est régie par des transferts depuis des sites sources vers des sites puits. La variation de ces transferts, dans le temps et l’espace conditionne le rythme d’évolution du littoral. Les systèmes plages –dunes et falaises meubles (qui sont souvent associés au sein d’une seule cellule sédimentaire en tant que puit et source) sont particulièrement sensibles à ces variations et aux processus d’érosion. De plus, l’augmentation des pressions anthropiques depuis les années 60 a mené à une artificialisation de zones côtières et à une modification profonde des flux sédimentaires. Dans ce contexte, nous retraçons la mobilité récente du trait de côte et nous tentons de reconnaître les principaux types de fonctionnements morphodynamiques à long et à moyen terme. Nous essayons aussi de déterminer le rôle respectif des forçages naturels et anthropiques. L’analyse est fondée sur le traitement numérique de photographies aériennes pour retracer la cinématique du trait de côte et pour quantifier les tendances et les rythmes d’évolution. L’analyse met en relation les variations du trait de côte avec une base de données SIG décrivant les facteurs contrôlant l’évolution. La combinaison des résultats obtenus a permis de noter que le recul du trait de côte est contrôlé par des processus d’érosion accélérée lors d’événements intenses (tempêtes) et par des processus d’érosion anthropique. Le déficit sédimentaire de certaines plages est peut être aussi lié à une pénurie des apports livrés par les falaises meubles. Les rôles respectifs de ces deux forçages (tempêtes et anthropisation) sont hautement variables suivant les sites et aucune règle générale ne peut être établie sur la région. IL n’y a que des cas particuliers. / This PhD deals with the geomorphologic behavior of the Northern coast of Brittany between the Pointe du Grouin and Cap Frehel. The coastline is comprised of four coastal systems: low coasts (marsh system, and dune system) and rocky coasts (hard rock cliffs, soft rocks cliffs). The dynamics of these systems is controlled by transfers of energy and sediment (from source sites to sink sites). The variation of these transfers in time and space modifies the sedimentary stock and therefore the rate of morphological evolution of the coastline. The dunes / soft cliffs association puit sites and source sites) are especially sensitive to these variations and show many erosion processes and features. Moreover the increase in anthropogenic pressures since the 60s has led to increasing artificial coastal areas. In this context, we trace the recent mobility of the coastline and we try to identify the main types of morphodynamics behavior in the evolution of coastal forms. The analysis is based on the digital processing aerial photography in order to quantify the trends of the evolution. The analysis links the changes with a GIS database describing the factors controlling the evolution of the coastline. Results show that retreat is controlled by accelerated erosion process during storms and by anthropogenic processes. The sediment deficit of some beaches may be related to a shortage of inputs from the soft cliffs. The respective roles of storms and anthropic forcing are highly variable from one site to another and no general rule may be constructed for the entire region

When the effects of wind and air pressure combine with a high tide to give unusually high water levels this can lead to severe coastal flooding. This happened in England in early 1953 when 307 people died in the East Coast Flood. In Britain today such events, now called storm surges, are forecast daily using computer models from the National Oceanographic Centre in Liverpool, formerly the Liverpool Tidal Institute (TI). In 1919, when TI was established, such events were considered unpredictable. TI's researchers, Joseph Proudman (1888-1975), Arthur Doodson (1890-1968), Robert Henry Corkan (1906-1952) and Jack Rossiter (1919-1972), did much mathematical work to attempt to change this. In 1959 Rossiter published a set of statistical formulae to forecast storm surges on the East Coast and a national warning system was predicting such events using these formulae. At this point TI believed they had made surges at least as predictable as they could with their existing methods. This thesis provides a narrative of how this perceived rise in the predictability of surges happened, analysing how TI worked to achieve it between 1919 and 1959 by following two interwoven, contingent and contested threads: practices of calculation and patronage. A key aspect of this thesis is the attention I pay to material practices of calculation: the methods, technologies and management practices TI's researchers used in their mathematical work on storm surge forecasting. This is the first study by historians of oceanography or meteorology that pays this detailed level of attention to such practices in the construction of forecasting formulae. As well as using published accounts, I analyse statistical research in the making, through notes, calculations, graphs and tables produced by TI's researchers. They used particular practices of calculation to construct storm surges as calculable and predictable scientific objects of a specific kind. First they defined storm surges as the residuals derived from subtracting tidal predictions from observations. They then decided to use multiple regression, correlating their residuals with pressure gradients, to make surges predictable. By considering TI's practices of calculation the thesis adds to the literature on mathematical research as embodied and material, showing how particular practices were used to make a specific phenomenon predictable. I combine this attention to mathematical practice with analysis of why TI's researchers did this work. US historians have emphasised naval patronage of physical oceanography in this period but there is very little secondary literature for the British case. The thesis provides a British case study of patronage of physical oceanography, emphasising the influence on TI's work not only of naval patronage but also of local government, civil state and industrial patronage. Before TI's establishment Proudman argued that it should research storm surges to improve the Laplacian theory of tides. However, when the new Institute received patronage from the local shipping industry this changed and the work on forecasting surges was initially done as part of a project to improve the accuracy of tidal predictions, earning TI further patronage from the local shipping industry. After a flooding event in 1928 the reasons for the work and the patronage again shifted. Between then and 1959 TI did this work on commission from various patrons, including local government, civil state and military actors, which connected their patronage to national debates about state involvement in flood defence. To understand why TI's researchers worked on forecasting surges I analyse this complex mix of patrons and motivations. I argue that such complex patronage patterns could be fruitfully explored by other historians to further existing debates on the patronage of oceanography.

Czech Republic is called roof of the Europe, several rivers rise here and many of them flow away and continue to other countries. That's why I find, that’s extremely important to manage out water sources properly and carefully, because for example the weather has a huge impact on our limited sources and can affect them especially in a dry periods. These issues can be improved by finding a use for used water, good storm water management as well as using greywater. In my diploma thesis, I'll be mainly focused on an overall water management in an ordinary family house. It has two parts as theoretical part and practical part. The theoretical part is then split into another three parts. The first part covers a storm water management, the second is about waste water management. The third explains greywater management. In practical part of my diploma thesis, there's my study of not disposing rain water into a drain with other waste water, but making both waters useful. In this my particular subject in village called Plesnice, is projected a waste water treatment plant. Treated water will be accumulate together with rain water. Accumulated water will be used for irrigation. For a waste water treatment is projected a constructed wetland with vertical flow (down flow reed beds) and facility for sludge management. This is example of extensive technology. Irrigation system consists of storage tank with mechanical pre-treatment and pump valve shaft, sprinklers for lawns, drip irrigation decorative surfaces and everything is controlled by a control unit. Thanks to irrigation and rainwater remains in effect, which is important for local microclimate and save drinking water. This study is an example of that in water management is not necessarily a need for global action, but you can start with individuals and individual houses, which in total could have a significant effect on water retention in the landscape and to slow down and reduce the peak flow in rivers.

Title: Cloud-top morphology of convective storms as observed by meteorological satellites Author: Michaela Radová Department: Department of Atmospheric Physics Supervisor: RNDr. Martin Setvák, CSc., Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Abstract: This work focuses on study of features occurring at tops of convective storms, namely embedded warm areas, cold rings, cold-U/Vs and overshooting tops (OTs), mainly from the perspective of satellite observations. We have assembled a database of 104 subjectively detected cold rings and cold-U/Vs from the area of Europe. We discuss relationship between satellite- observed brightness temperature and cloud top height determined from radar measurements for storms with distinct cold-rings. Our results support the hypothesis that the warm area is a consequence of presence of central elevated dome reaching warmer lower stratosphere. Moreover, a storm with transformation of cold ring into cold-U is studied and an elevated plume above storm anvil in the warmer lower stratosphere is found to be a likely explanation of the warm area inside the cold-U. Both analyses confirm that thermal inversion above the tropopause is a necessary prerequisite for occurrence of cold rings and cold-U/Vs. We also propose a method for automated objective determination of spatial characteristics of...

This thesis analyses the official narrative of the Homeland war which is supported by the Croatian state. The thesis follows its development from the very beginning when the war broke out until nowadays. At the same time the thesis deals with the state promotion of this official narrative in the four areas of the politics of memory. Concretely, these areas are: legislation, state institution Croatian memorial and documentation Centre of the Homeland war, education, state holidays and commemorations. Within the thesis, a special focus is put on the activities of the aforementioned Centre of the Homeland war which represents one of the tokens of the state promoted politics of memory as well as one of the main proponents of the official narrative. For research of the official narrative and politics of memory the thesis draws on the theoretical concepts of narrativization and institutional memory. This thesis is a one case study chronologically dealing with the period from the parliamentary elections in 1990 to nowadays events. On the basis of the analysis of the official narrative the main conclusion is that its interpretation of war event from the 90's has not almost changed and still the narrative presents exclusively Croatian narrative. The research of state influence over the perception of the...

This study examines if theory of deception can be understood in successful air operations on a tactical level. Research on deception is mostly conducted on a strategic level and the different theories vary in aim and tend to be comprehensive. Studies of air power are mostly conducted on a tactical level and deception within air power has become more common throughout the years. This study aims, using a theory testing case study, to explain how theories of deception work on a tactical level. The analysis is based on Barton Whaley’s structure of deception, and the cases that were analyzed were the Six-Day War and Operation Desert Storm. The result showed that the theory partly could describe deception on a tactical level as a majority of the different categories of Whaleys theory were present in both conflicts. However, the priority of the different categories in the theory did not correspond to either of the cases. This led to the conclusion that Barton Whaley’s theory of structure of deception does not alone describe success in air operations on a tactical level.