Submitted by André Gilberto Klein Graupen (andregkg@gmail.com) on 2015-08-24T23:27:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação FGV - André Graupen - Final.pdf: 850257 bytes, checksum: e03ff3cf37194871978526e96e7f0a03 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-08-24T23:42:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação FGV - André Graupen - Final.pdf: 850257 bytes, checksum: e03ff3cf37194871978526e96e7f0a03 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-08-25T13:22:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação FGV - André Graupen - Final.pdf: 850257 bytes, checksum: e03ff3cf37194871978526e96e7f0a03 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-11 / The international financial crisis of 2008 has affected both the US and the world economies. Thus, we discussed the origins of the subprime crisis in a historical context, understanding the impacts of this crisis focusing on countercyclical policies adopted at a sectorial level. Through econometric studies to evaluate the effectiveness of the fiscal, monetary and credit countercyclical policies focused on automotive, construction and home furniture and appliances sectors of the economy, aiming to understand the effectiveness of these policies both as an incentive for these industries as well as maintenance of the employment rate of the economy, two focuses of the Brazilian countercyclical policies. The empirical analysis revealed, on the side of incentive of the sectors that the expansionary monetary policy did not have the expected effect on any of the three sectors studied, while the credit and fiscal policies, also expansionary, had a positive effects on the sectors studied. On the maintenance of the unemployment rate of the economy side, fiscal and monetary policies were effective for the three sectors analyzed, which allows us to conclude that the government policies adopted had some form of efficacy. It is important to note that we assumed premises regarding IPI on the home furniture and appliances sector and unemployment series, which were not available in a specific way, constituting a limitation to paper. / A crise financeira internacional de 2008 afetou tanto a economia dos Estados Unidos quanto a economia mundial. Assim, discutiu-se as origens da crise do 'subprime', em uma contextualização histórica e entendeu-se a repercussão dessa crise, com foco nas medidas anticíclicas brasileiras adotadas em nível setorial. Através de estudos econométricos que visavam avaliar a eficácia dessas medidas de políticas fiscal, monetária e creditícia, direcionadas aos setores automotivo, de construção civil e de móveis e eletrodomésticos, buscou-se entender a eficácia das medidas anticíclicas tanto como incentivo econômico, quanto na manutenção do nível de emprego, dois dos principais focos das políticas anticíclicas brasileiras. A análise empírica revelou, no lado do incentivo dos setores, que a política monetária expansionista não teve o efeito esperado em nenhum dos três setores testados, enquanto que as políticas creditícia e fiscal, também expansionistas, tiveram efeitos positivos sobre os setores em estudo. Pelo lado da eficácia na manutenção do emprego, as políticas fiscal e monetária foram eficazes para os três setores analisados, o que nos permite concluir que as medidas do governo tiveram alguma forma de eficácia. É importante ressaltar que se assumiu a premissa para as séries de IPI sobre o setor de móveis e eletrodomésticos e a série de desemprego, que não estavam disponíveis de forma específica, constituindo uma limitação ao trabalho.

The aim of this diploma thesis is an analysis of the contemporary mortgage crisis in the USA. The thesis consists of four sections. The first part describes historical developments of the American mortgage market with the emphasis on securitization. The second chapter deals with the market failures occurring within the securitization process. The third chapter is dedicated to the primary mortgage market, in particular to the causes of the previous credit boom, "running" house prices. Moreover, this chapter analyzes the "subprime" and "Alt-A" mortgage market, their products and practices prevailing on these markets. The last chapter is devoted to the secondary mortgage markets. The aim of this chapter is to describe how "subprime" and "Alt-A" mortgage deals were structured. The case study offers an example and its results are presented.

[pt] Percorrendo as linhas de interseção que conectam e separam as disciplinas economia política internacional, sociologia política internacional e geografia humana, a presente pesquisa se propõe a investigar derivativos financeiros como tanto forma de dinheiro quanto instituição e práticas monetárias. Para tanto, o estudo busca inspiração, de modo geral, no que foi cunhado virada prática nas ciências sociais, e de modo particular, nas abordagens teórico-metodológicas associadas à Teoria do Ator-Rede (TAR). Por meio do desempacotamento da noção de financeirização bem como de um descentramento das finanças, a pesquisa intenta capturar ações, práticas, objetos e estratégias que reúnem, sustentam, autorizam e dão forma à ordenamentos monetários e financeiros sistemáticos – muito embora restando contingentes e instáveis. À luz do mercado de hipotecas subprime dos Estados Unidos da América, o estudo pretende, de um lado, desvelar mecanismos de assemblagem de redes sociotécnicas monetárias e financeiras e, de outro lado, lançar luz sobre dinâmicas topológicas que deslocam e amplificam linhas de exclusão/expropriação raciais e de gênero. Este trabalho de mapeamento, no nosso entendimento, abre espaço para engajamento político e crítico com uma temática pretensamente técnica, ao passo que sinaliza limites e possibilidades que derivam de modos e formas de dissenso. / [en] Running across the intersecting lines that bind and separate the domains of international political economy, international political sociology and human geography, this research sets out to investigate derivatives as both money-form and monetary institutions and practices. To this end, the study draws inspiration, in general, from what has been termed in the social sciences as the practical turn and, in particular, from theoretical and methodological approaches associated with the Actor-Network Theory. By unpacking the notion of financialization and decentering finance, this investigation seeks to grasp actions, practices, objects, strategies that bring together, sustain, authorize and give form to systematic, albeit contingent and unstable, financial and monetary orderings. In the light of the subprime mortgage market of the United States of America, the study will, on the one hand, shed light to mechanisms of assembly of sociotechnical monetary and financial networks, and, on the other hand, unveil the topological workings that dislocate and amplify racial and gendered lines of exclusion. This work of mapping, so I argue, shall open up spaces for critical engagement and shall indicate the limits and possibilities deriving from multiple modes of dissent.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / The use of leading indicators provides a valuable method to predict changes in macro-economic variables. However, the accuracy of the various models using leading indicators is a topic of constant debate. This study aimed to identify whether leading indicator models predicting residential house price changes performed as well during the recent global financial crisis (fourth quarter 2007 to second quarter 2012) as during the period directly before the crisis. Several potential drivers of the South African property market were identified with the help of previous studies on this topic. Following that, a quantitative analysis was done and single leading indicator models were built using regression analysis to evaluate the importance of each independent variable. This information was used to create a composite leading index for the South African housing market. The accuracy of these models were then compared to predict the changes in house prices during the period preceding the recent global economic crisis.It was found that the ability of these leading indicator models to predict house price changes during the recent global economic crisis decreased significantly.

This thesis demonstrates that consumer leverage can contribute to financial crises such as the subprime mortgage crisis characterised by increased bankruptcy prospects and tightened credit access. A recession may follow even when the leveraged sector is not a production sector and can be triggered by seeming positive events such as a technological innovation and a relaxation of borrowing conditions. The first preliminary chapter updates the Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) approach with financial frictions in the production sector to a two-sector model with consumption and housing. It shows that credit frictions in the capital financing decisions of housing firms are not sufficient to capture the negative consumer experience with falling housing prices and relaxed credit access during the recession. The second chapter brings the model closer to the subprime mortgage crisis by shifting credit constraints to the consumer mortgage market. Increased supply of houses lowers asset prices and reduces the value of the real estate collateral used in the mortgage which in turn worsens the leverage of indebted consumers. A relaxation of borrowing conditions turns credit-constrained households into a potential source of disturbances themselves when market optimism allows them to raise their leverage with little downpayment. Both cases demonstrate that although households are not production agents, their worsening debt levels can trigger a lasting financial downturn. The third chapter develops a chained mortgage contracts model where both homeowner consumers and the financial institutions that securitize their mortgage loan are credit-constrained. Adding credit constraints to the financial sector that provides housing mortgages creates opportunities for risk sharing where banks shift some of the downturn onto indebted consumers in order to hasten their own recovery. This consequence is especially evident in the case of relaxed credit access for banks. Financial institutions repair their debt position relatively fast at the expense of consumers whose borrowing ability is squeezed for a long period despite the fact that they may not be the source of the disturbance. The result mirrors the recent subprime mortgage crisis characterised by a sharp but brief decline for banks and a protracted recovery for mortgaged households.

Este trabalho testa, através da metodologia de cópulas, a hipótese de contágio financeiro entre ações brasileiras e índices de mercado dos países que deram origem às crises do Terror em 2001, da Argentina em 2001, dos Subpprimes em 2007 e do Débito Soberano Europeu em 2009. Além disso, ainda é feita uma análise dos setores econômicos que mais foram afetados por cada crise. Os testes da crise do Terror apresentaram evidências de contágio do SP500 para 24 ações brasileiras, afetando, principalmente os setores ligado à indústria e à energia. As crises da Argentina e do Débito Soberano Europeu apresentaram evidências de contágio dos índices Merval e Athex para apenas 3 empresas. A crise dos Subprimes apresentou evidências de contágio do SP500 para 35 empresas brasileiras, sendo a maioria ligada aos setores financeiros, de energia e industrial. 7 ações foram afetadas pelas duas crises norteamericanas. Os resultados reforçam a importância da análise de contágio em cada empresa individual, ao invés de utilizar o índice do mercado brasileiro como um todo. / This paper tests, through the copulas methodology, the hypothesis of financial contagion between the individual Brazilian stocks and the market indices of the countries where the crises were originated. The crises analyzed are the Terror crisis in 2001, the Argentina’s crisis in 2001, the Subprime crisis in 2007 and the Sovereign Debt crisis in 2009. In addition to this, the Brazilian economic sectors are examined in order to find out which were most affected by each crisis. The tests of the Terror crisis presented evidence of SP500 contagion to 24 Brazilian stocks, affecting, mainly, sectors related to industry and energy. The Argentina’s crisis and the European Sovereign Debt crisis presented contagion’s evidence of the Merval and Athex indices for only 3 Brazilian companies. The Subprimes crisis presented evidence of SP500 contagion for 35 Brazilian companies, mostly related to the financial, energy and industrial sectors. 7 Brazilian stocks were affected by both American crises. The results reinforce the importance of contagion analysis in each individual company, rather than using the Brazilian market index.

Credit granting is not only one core business but also the major profit source of banks. Non-Performing Loan Ratio (NPL Ratio) is an important index to evaluate the quality of credit granting and to influence profitability of banks. Recently, NPL ratio, which soared to record level, of local banks does not only hurt their asset quality but also threaten their surviving space due to the changes of internal structure, overbanking, internationalization of local banking industry, economic recession, the subprime crisis in 2007. Theoretically, banks have their own credit granting policy and credit examination system; however, there is soaring NPL ratio to cause huge NPL losses in banks because of the differences of credit grating practices. Nevertheless, there are some local banks which have lower NPL ratio. Therefore, this research is to help us to understand the possible factors of overdue loan that happened in corporate banking, and try to discover the key factors. Also, try to sampling those key factors from the past experiences for future crediting reference. The main profit from a bank is the margin of deposit and credit loan interest. Therefore, the overdue loan is highly related to a bank¡¦s profit. Moreover, it is necessary for banks to pay more cost to make up the losses which are caused by the NPL. Certainly, it is safest way for banks to acquire 100% collaterals for creditors¡¦ right, although 100% collaterals could be acquired, the creditors cannot ignore the impacts (on the creditors¡¦ profitability) of the necessary litigation expenses for disposing the collaterals. As a result, fully recognize the customers¡¦ credit condition before drawing is the only way to avoid the NPL loss and ensure the profit.

Resulting from the deregulation and prosperity of the economic and financial sectors in Asia during 1980s, a significant increase in cross-bordered financial transactions ultimately accelerated the region of Southeast Asia to be on a process of financial integration and consequently diminished opportunities for portfolio diversification. Financial Integration is a multidimensional process through which allocation of financial assets becomes lastly borderless. This purpose of this paper is to examine a progress thus far in capital market integration or preferentially, the co-movement of the equity markets between the U.S. and the Southeast Asian nations: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines by employing the methodology of Gregory and Hansen Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis (ECM). The consequence of the U.S. market performance on each Southeast Asian national markets are extensively analyzed by decomposing monthly price-index time series into three distinct sub-periods based on an occurrence of the Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis in 2007. The results indicate that these four emerging markets had been considerable influenced by the U.S. market performance, regardless of crisis or non-crisis periods. Nevertheless, some countries like Indonesia and the Philippines acted differently during the pre-crisis and crisis sub-periods respectively due to their domestic market infrastructure and regulation adjustment. However, these two markets had eventually turned to share an interdependent long-run relationship with the U.S. equity market since the ending of the Subprime financial downturn. Moreover, this finding suggests that ongoing capital market integration in the Southeast Asian region would mitigate portfolio diversification benefits for investors by virtue of increasing in correlation among securities and assets. Therefore, more exhaustive investigation about equity market integration is significantly beneficial in macroeconomic and financial perspective.

Loans originated to borrowers with lower incomes and/or lower credit scores are classified as subprime. The spatial distribution of subprime loans is alarmingly concentrated in minority-dominated and low-income areas. Beginning in mid 2006 the subprime mortgage market began to see elevated levels of delinquent and defaulted loans. The causes are many but generally traced to the beginning of the reset periods for adjustable rate mortgages and the evaporation of demand for securitized subprime mortgages. As delinquent and default rates in subprime mortgages rise, areas with a concentration of high-risk borrowers are at risk to decline. The decline can be measured across four different groups of factors that indicate the health of a community. The four groups are: physical, institutional, socioeconomic and the residential body. The residential body factor group refers to the citizens of a community and their civic involvement. The analysis uses binary logistic regression to identify communities that are commonly associated with subprime mortgage defaults. Subprime loans in the ten-county Atlanta Metropolitan Area are the focus of the study. The analysis treats each census tract in the ten counties as an individual community. The sample loans are geocoded to the census tract level allowing defaulted loans to be tied to communities and their characteristics. The data is collected from a variety of sources including the U.S. Census Bureau, the Atlanta Regional Commission and RR Donnelley s Credit Risk Management database. The results indicate that the probability of subprime mortgage defaults are associated with higher vacancy rates, population loss, declining property tax revenues, depreciating property values, and declining owner reinvestment in their properties. Potential spill over impacts to the community include higher crime rates, decreased school funding and degradation of public infrastructure.

Submitted by Paulo Junior (paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2010-05-20T17:23:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudia Pombal.doc: 3803648 bytes, checksum: 7468e1b0149594b7e0b247f339f3b4d1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Paulo Junior(paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2010-05-20T17:24:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudia Pombal.doc: 3803648 bytes, checksum: 7468e1b0149594b7e0b247f339f3b4d1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-05-20T17:25:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudia Pombal.doc: 3803648 bytes, checksum: 7468e1b0149594b7e0b247f339f3b4d1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-02-03 / This work was to study the subject of subprime, in order to raise the relevant literature origin, evolution and possible contours to the financial crisis of the century. The general objective was to investigate the reasons for the occurrence of the phenomenon and its consequences. Through literature search were raised the main causes of the crisis, top trends and possible solutions. The conclusion was that to circumvent the consequences of the crisis is believed to be necessary to review international agreements to make arrangements more open and reformulate some of the institutions defining the market economies. / O objeto de estudo deste trabalho foi o subprime, sua origem, evolução e os possíveis contornos à crise financeira do século. O objetivo geral do trabalho foi investigar as razões para a ocorrência do fenômeno, bem como suas consequências. Além disso, as principais causas da crise, suas tendências e algumas possíveis soluções foram investigadas por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica. Para contornar as consequências da crise, seria necessário rever o modelo de regulação das atuais instituições financeiras vigentes, que são as responsáveis pela definição das economias de mercado, de modo a diminuir a instabilidade presente nos mercados financeiros.