The thesis is concerned with development of efficient regional frequency analysis (RFA) approaches to estimate quantiles of hydrometeorological events. The estimates are necessary for various applications in water resources engineering. The classical approach to estimate quantiles involves fitting frequency distribution to at-site data. However, this approach cannot be used when data at target site are inadequate or unavailable to compute parameters of the frequency distribution. This impediment can be overcome through RFA, in which sites having similar attributes are identified to form a region, and information is pooled from all the sites in the region to estimate the quantiles at target site. The thesis proposes new approaches to RFA of precipitation, meteorological droughts and floods, and demonstrates their effectiveness. The approach proposed for RFA of precipitation overcomes shortcomings of conventional approaches with regard to delineation and validation of homogeneous precipitation regions, and estimation of precipitation quantiles in ungauged and data sparse areas. For the first time in literature, distinction is made between attributes/variables useful to form homogeneous rainfall regions and to validate the regions. Another important issue is that some of the attributes considered for regionalization vary dynamically with time. In conventional approaches, there is no provision to consider dynamic aspects of time varying attributes. This may lead to delineation of ineffective regions. To address this issue, a dynamic fuzzy clustering model (DFCM) is developed. The results obtained from application to Indian summer monsoon and annual rainfall indicated that RFA based on DFCM is more effective than that based on hard and fuzzy clustering models in arriving at rainfall quantile estimates. Errors in quantile estimates for the hard, fuzzy and dynamic fuzzy models based on the proposed approach are shown to be significantly less than those computed for Indian summer monsoon rainfall regions delineated in three previous studies. Overall, RFA based on DFCM and large scale atmospheric variables appeared promising. The performance of DFCM is followed by that of fuzzy and hard clustering models. Next, a new approach is proposed for RFA of meteorological droughts. It is suggested that homogeneous precipitation regions have to be delineated before proceeding to develop drought severity - areal extent - frequency (SAF) curves. Drought SAF curves are constructed at annual and summer monsoon time scales for each of the homogeneous rainfall regions that are newly delineated in India based on the proposed approach. They find use in assessing spatial characteristics and frequency of meteorological droughts. It overcomes shortcomings associated with classical approaches that construct SAF curves for political (e.g., state, country) and physiographic regions (e.g., river basin), based on spatial patterns of at-site values of drought indices in the study area, without testing homogeneity in rainfall. Advantage of the new approach can be noted especially in areas that have significant variations in temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation (possibly due to variations in topography, landscape and climate). The DFCM is extended to RFA of floods, and its effectiveness in prediction of flood quantiles is demonstrated by application to Godavari basin in India, considering precipitation as time varying attribute. Six new homogeneous regions are formed in Godavari basin and errors in quantile estimates based on those regions are shown to be significantly less than those computed based on sub-zones delineated in Godavari basin by Central Water Commission in a previous study.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an important component of the tropical climate system, known for its regular seasonality and abundance of rainfall over the country. The droughts and floods associated with the year-to-year variation of the average seasonal rainfall have devastating effect on people, agriculture and economy of this region. The demand for prediction of seasonal monsoon rainfall, therefore, is overwhelming. A number of attempts to predict the seasonal mean monsoon have been made over a century, but neither dynamical nor empirical models provide skillful forecasts of the extremes of the monsoon such as the unprecedented drought of 2002. This study investigates the problems and prospects of extended range monsoon prediction. An evaluation of the potential predictability of the ISM with the aid of an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations indicates that the interannual variability (IAV) of ISM is contributed equally by the slow boundary forcing (‘externally’ forced variability) and the inherent climate noise (‘internal’ variability) in the atmosphere. Success in predicting the ISM would depend on our ability to extract the predictable signal from a background of noise of comparable amplitude. This would be possible only if the ‘external’ variability is separable from the ‘internal’ variability. A serious effort has been made to understand and isolate the sea surface temperature (SST) forced component of ISM variability that is not strongly influenced by the ‘internal’ variability. In addition, we have investigated to unravel the mechanism of generation of ‘internal’ IAV so that the method of isolating it from forced variability may be found. Since the primary forcing mechanism of the monsoon is the large-scale meridional gradient of deep tropospheric heat sources, large-scale changes in tropospheric temperature (TT) due to the boundary forcing can induce interannual variations of the timing and duration of the monsoon season. The concept of interannually varying monsoon season is introduced here, with the onset and withdrawal of monsoon definitions based on the reversal of meridional gradient of TT between north and south. This large scale definition of the monsoon season is representative of the planetary scale influence of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monsoon through the modification of TT and the cross equatorial pressure gradient over the ISM region. A sig- nificant relationship between ENSO and monsoon, that has remained steady over the decades, is discovered by which an El Ni˜no (La Ni˜na) delays (advances) the onset, advances (delays) the withdrawal and suppresses (enhances) the strength of the monsoon. The integral effect of the meridional gradient of TT from the onset to withdrawal proves to be a useful index of seasonal monsoon which isolates the boundary forced signal from the influence of internal variations that has remained steady even in the recent decades. However, consistent with the estimates of potential predictability, the boundary forced variability isolated with the above definitions explains only about 50% of the total interannual variability of ISM. Detailed diagnostics of the onset and withdrawal processes are performed to understand how the ENSO forcing modifies the onset and withdrawal, and thus the seasonal mean monsoon. It is found that during an El Ni˜no, the onset is delayed due to the enhanced adiabatic subsidence that inhibits vertical mixing of sensible heating from the warm landmass during pre-monsoon months, and the withdrawal is advanced due to the horizontal advective cooling. This link between ENSO and monsoon is realized through the advective processes associated with the stationary waves in the upper troposphere set up by the tropical ENSO heating. The remaining 50% of the monsoon IAV is governed by internal processes. To unravel the mechanism of the generation of internal IAV, we perform another set of AGCM simulations, forced with climatological monthly mean SSTs, to extract the pure internal IAV. We find that the spatial structure of the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in these simulations has significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season (seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broadband nature of the ISO spectrum, allowing the intraseasonal time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relationship is a manifestation of the binomial character of the rainfall time series. The remaining part of IAV may arise due to the complex land-surface processes, scale interactions, etc. We also find that the ISOs over the ISM region are not significantly modulated by the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST variations. Thus, even with a perfect prediction of SST, only about 50% of the observed IAV of ISM could be predicted with the best model in forced mode. Even so, prediction of all India rainfall (AIR) representing the average conditions of the whole country and the season may not always serve the purposes of monsoon forecasting. One reason is the large inhomogeneities in the rainfall distribution during a normal seasonal monsoon. Agriculture and hydrological sector could benefit more if provided with regional scale forecasts of active/break spells 2-3 weeks ahead. Therefore, we advocate an alternative strategy to the seasonal prediction. Here, we present a method to estimate the potential predictability of active and break conditions from daily rainfall and circulation from observations for the recent 24 years. We discover that transitions from break to active conditions are much more chaotic than those from active to break, a fundamental property of the monsoon ISOs. The potential predictability limit of monsoon breaks (∼20 days) is significantly higher than that of the active conditions (∼10 days). An empirical real- time forecasting strategy to predict the sub-seasonal variations of monsoon up to 4 pentads (20 days) in advance is developed. The method is physically based, with the consideration that the large-scale spatial patterns and slow evolution of monsoon intraseasonal variations possess some similarity in their evolutions from one event to the other. This analog method is applied on NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) pentad mean data which is available on a near real time basis. The elimination of high frequency variability and the use of spatial and temporal analogs produces high and useful skill of predictions over the central and northern Indian region for a lead-time of 4-5 pentads. An important feature of this method is that, unlike other empirical methods to forecast monsoon ISOs, this uses minimal time filtering to avoid any possible end-point effects, and hence it has immense potential for real-time applications.

Thesis (PhD)--Macquarie University, Division of Society, Culture, Media & Philosophy, Department of Critical and Cultural Studies, 2004. / Bibliography: leaves 310-325. / Introduction -- School violence: a brief overview -- What's in a name?: constructing an institutional identity in an educational market -- The discipline of gentlemen -- Parent consumers: tactical manoeuvres and institutional strategies -- Making the papers: Trinity in the news -- Games of truth: "everyone has their spin" -- Conclusions. / This study integrates sociological theories of social class with poststructuralist theories of subjectivity, representation and consumption, to consider the complex ways in which the representational practices of institutions and individuals are implicated in the production of violence in schools. This work draws particularly on a case study of incidents of sexual violence which occurred at an elite private school in Sydney during 2000, in which four students were charged with a range of offences committed against younger peers over a period of months. The assault incidents received widespread media coverage and sparked intense public debate, in response to which a media strategies consultant was engaged by the school to liaise with members of the press. This study demonstrates the extent to which the interrelationships between systems of signification (in particular, written and visual texts) and other social systems, (for example, families, schools, and political economy) function in the constitution of subjectivities and the production of meaning, and takes as its focus the interrelationship and functioning of texts, discursive practices and social practices which pertain specifically to the assault incidents described above. Data are derived from a range of sources and genres, including promotional materials, personal and general correspondence, media reports, and interviews, necessitating a variety of qualitative analytic methods. Informed by critical post-structuralist theory, in particular the work of Bourdieu, Foucault, and de Certeau, this work considers questions pertaining to the operation of power within social institutions, with particular emphasis on the constitutive function of discourse. The analysis extends current conceptualisations of school violence through a post-structuralist interrogation of, and linking of violence to, educational consumption, which has predominantly been theorised according to sociological or economic models. The argument is made that the market ideologies which pervade contemporary social and educative practice, together with the representational practices and disciplinary regimes of schools, function in the constitution of social subjects who occupy multiple ambiguous subject positions in the patriarchal hierarchies which characterise the power relations and institutions under consideration, thus implicating institutions in the production of violence. / Mode of access: World Wide Web. / vii, 325 leaves

The maritime summer vacation and the coastal urbanization phenomena are directly related to the valuation of coastal areas by the spread of modern maritime practices (bathing, vacation and tourism) in these areas. Modern maritimity introduces new possibilities for list of companies with the sea and the coastal areas, making it the primary locus for holding leisure activities and housing (temporary or permanent). In this scenario, it is clear that the increasing urbanization of coastal areas is related to the spread of modern maritime practices. To understand the changes in coastal areas resulting from urbanization and modern maritime practices, it is taken as an object of study the expansion of maritime summer vacation in Barra de São Miguel coastline, a city located in the south coast of the state of Alagoas. Since the beginning, maritime summer vacation in Barra de São Miguel receives a strong influence from the capital Maceio through the expansion of it´s urban tissue towards the south coast. The urban morphology, marked by urban divisions and accumulation of second homes, is a result of how the coast of Barra São Miguel is achieved by Maceio city, showing its influence in the formation of spatial forms prevalent in the city. The summering people, municipal and state authorities, real estate entrepreneurs and the people who live in local beaches are social subjects involved in the process of the making of urban morphology in Barra de São Miguel. The document is the result of the methodological practices based on the following stages: a) bibliographic and documentary research; b) field research; c) informal interviews. / A vilegiatura marítima e a urbanização litorânea são fenômenos diretamente relacionados à valorização dos espaços litorâneos mediante a propagação das práticas marítimas modernas (banhos de mar, veraneio e turismo) nos espaços litorâneos. A maritimidade moderna instaura novas possibilidades de relação das sociedades com o mar e os espaços litorâneos, tornando-o lócus prioritário para a realização de atividades de lazer e moradia (temporárias ou permanentes). Neste cenário, é possível afirmar que o incremento da urbanização dos espaços litorâneos está relacionado à disseminação das práticas marítimas modernas. Para compreender as transformações nos espaços costeiros decorrentes da urbanização e das práticas marítimas modernas, toma-se como objeto de estudo a expansão da vilegiatura marítima no litoral de Barra de São Miguel, município localizado no litoral Sul do Estado de Alagoas. A vilegiatura marítima na Barra de São Miguel recebe desde o início uma forte influência da expansão do tecido urbano de Maceió em direção ao litoral Sul. A morfologia urbana, marcada por parcelamentos e aglomerados de segundas residências, é resultado de como o litoral de Barra de São Miguel é alcançado pela cidade de Maceió, evidenciando sua influência na constituição das formas espaciais predominantes no município. Desta forma, os veranistas, o poder público municipal e estadual, os empreendedores imobiliários e moradores dos municípios circunvizinhos são sujeitos sociais envolvidos no processo de constituição da morfologia urbana resultante em Barra de São Miguel. A metodologia para desenvolver a pesquisa constitui-se das seguintes etapas: a) pesquisa bibliográfica e documental; b) entrevistas; c) pesquisa de campo.

Title: Large sporting events' brand identification Objectives: The main objective of this work is to identify the brand personality of Summer Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup by means of marketing research. Methods: In connection with the primary data collection a method of written and electronic questioning was used. The brand personality identification of the above mentioned brands was performed based on the brand personality measurement method according to Geuens, Weijters and De Wulf (2009). For the obtained data interpretation their statistical analysis was performed. Results: Based on the research results, the brand personality of Summer Olympic Games can be described by the dimensions Responsibility, Activity and Simplicity and by characteristics stable, responsible, active, dynamic and simple. The brand personality of FIFA World Cup can be described only by the dimension Activity and by characteristics active, dynamic and innovative. Keywords: Sports brand, brand personality, brand personality measurement, brand image, brand identity, Summer Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup.

The main objectives this thesis was primarily assessment of the services level, which are provided by Travel agency Topinka in their own recreation centers by analysis and comparison these centers by predetermined criteria. The others objectives were to determine requirements and needs of customers using a questionnaire investigation and the current trends. On basis of these analyzes propose steps, which will lead to improve position of this company on the tourism market. These proposes are facultative program and two packages of services (combination of transport, accomodation, catering and additional services). The others are modernization recreation centers as innovation sports facilities and reconstruction and modernization areas too.

Submitted by Carlo Loria (santosloria@yahoo.com) on 2018-08-28T17:03:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE CARLO LORIA ALT.pdf: 11490877 bytes, checksum: d5002255e342591fc2e11a7b53ae7d92 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by NUBIA OLIVEIRA (nubia.marilia@ufba.br) on 2018-09-25T20:48:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE CARLO LORIA ALT.pdf: 11490877 bytes, checksum: d5002255e342591fc2e11a7b53ae7d92 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-25T20:48:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE CARLO LORIA ALT.pdf: 11490877 bytes, checksum: d5002255e342591fc2e11a7b53ae7d92 (MD5) / CAPES / Na Itália, na passagem da década de 1960 para 1970, um quadro de fortes conflitos políticos nacionais repercutia sobre a vida universitária, sobre as pesquisas e ensejava profundas mudanças nas visões sobre a essência da ciência e sobre as práticas de investigação estabelecidas. O nível de radicalização gerou divergências e polarizações nas comunidades científicas, passando a ameaçar de cisão a Sociedade Italiana de Física, SIF. A ruptura não aconteceu graças à uma dinâmica endógena à própria comunidade que, mediante debates e propostas acadêmicas, encontrou a rota da pacificação. Esse processo tornou-se objeto de atenção de historiadores da ciência, interessados em explicar as condutas e protagonismos de membros da sociedade. As narrativas sugerem papeis importantes tanto das lideranças formais como das lideranças difusas, que emergiam de reuniões e assembleias, na proposição de temas para a Escola de Verão Enrico Fermi, que tinha lugar na cidade de Varenna. O objeto desta tese é tentar verificar como atuaram estas lideranças e se houve maior destaque ou supremacia de um tipo ou de outro. O campo de conhecimento desta pesquisa é a história da ciência com foco na comunidade de pesquisadores e o procedimento metodológico empregado privilegiou a utilização de fontes primárias como questionários aplicados à alguns informantes qualificados, pesquisadores da época, análise de epistolário entre esses pesquisadores e outras fontes como comunicações científicas. Os resultados esperados ajudarão a entender a solução da controvérsia. / ABSTRACT In Italy, during the sixties and seventies years of the las century, a series of strong national political riots and conflicts had an impact on university life, on research, and provoke deep changes on the views about the essence of science and established research practices. The level of radicalization has generated divergences and polarizations in the scientific communities, brought threats to split the Italian Physical Society, SIF. The rupture did not happen because to endogenous dynamics, inbuilt the own community, which, by means of debates and academic proposals, found the pacification route. This process attracted attention of historians of science, interested in explaining the conduct and protagonism of members of society. The narratives suggest important roles of both formal leaderships and diffuse leaderships, which emerged from meetings and assemblies, in proposing themes to the Enrico Fermi Summer School, which took place in the city of Varenna. The purpose of this thesis is to try to verify how these leaders acted and if there was greater prominence or supremacy from one type or another. The field of knowledge of this research is the history of science with a focus on the community of researchers and the methodological procedure employed privileged the use of primary sources as questionnaires applied to some qualified informants, researchers of the time, analysis of correspondence between these researchers and other sources as scientific communications. The expected results will help you understand the solution to the controversy.

The work is divided into two parts - teoretical and practical part. Teoretical one defines and describes terms creativity, children at the age of 7-15 years, motivation, game, experiences education and specifics of the summer camp. This part makes the scient base for the practical part. Second part of work - practical one - is the project presents the game for whole summer camp. The story is based on the novel by Garth Nix The Seventh Tower. With the experiences education creates the complex of activities which is interconnected.

This thesis examines the structure of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in a General Circulation Model (GCM). The TEJ is observed only during the Indian summer monsoon period and is strongest during July and August. The jet structure simulated by an atmospheric GCM (CAM-3.1) in July has been compared with reanalysis data. The simulated TEJ was displaced westward by ~ 25◦ when compared to observations. The removal of orography had no impact on the jet structure. This demonstrated that the Tibetan Plateau did not play an important role in the location and structure of the jet. The changes in cumulus scheme in the GCM had a large influence on the location of the jet maxima. To examine the factors which control the location and structure of the jet, a series of experiments were conducted using an aqua-planet version of the model. The impact of different sea surface temperature (SST) profiles was studied. The rainfall in the GCM was primarily in the regions where the SST attained a maximum. By altering the location of SST maximum (and hence the rainfall maximum), the impact of location of rainfall maximum on the location and structure of the jet was studied. When the rainfall maximum was located close to the equator, it did not generate a strong jet but had an influence on the vertical structure of the jet. A large number of simulations were conducted with multiple rainfall maxima and the need for these was demonstrated since only then was the observed jet structure well simulated. Based on the simulations, it was concluded that the simulation of the TEJ by CAM-3.1 was unrealistic because of large unrealistic rainfall over Saudi Arabia in this GCM. Equatorial heating has been shown to be important to simulate proper jet structure. The zonal structure of the jet was also influenced by rainfall in the Pacific Ocean. Although the aqua-planet configuration of the CAM-3.1 GCM provided several useful insights, the simulation was not perfect on account of errors in the simulation of the temperature profile in the lower troposphere. An ideal-physics configuration of the GCM was used. This removed the cumulus physics and instead imposed the observed heating pro-files. Both upper tropospheric friction and radiative-convective atmospheric temperatures were required to simulate the TEJ. The problems with the simulation of structure in the jet exit region was corrected by using radiative-convective atmospheric temperatures that were qualitatively similar to those observed in northern hemisphere summer time. The ideal-physics configuration reconfirmed that the Saudi Arabian rainfall was responsible for the westward shift of the TEJ in the simulations. The ideal-physics simulations showed that the simple analytical model proposed by Gillin1980 was not suitable for the simulation of TEJ. The above the simulations indicate that a shift in the location of the jet is related to a shift in the rainfall pattern. Based on this insight one would expect that the jet location will be different in good and bad monsoon periods. This is indeed the case. In July 2002 the Indian monsoon failed after beginning well in June. In June the TEJ is consequently located west ward compared to July. The same situation prevails even in good and poor monsoon years. In a good monsoon year (July 1988) the jet maximum is located westward when compared to a bad monsoon year (July 2002). In this thesis we have clearly demonstrated the role of anomalous rainfall on the location of the TEJ. This thesis has shown that an accurate simulation of the TEJ depends upon the accurate simulation of various rainfall centers that act as multiple heat sources in the atmosphere. The rainfall in the equatorial region does not influence the strength of the TEJ but alters the vertical structure of the jet. The strength the jet is dependent on the intensity of rainfall and the latitudinal distance from the equator. The complex vertical structure of the jet is not simulated by simple analytical models of the jet.