Air pollution became a major concern in South Africa in the late 1980’s and regulatory requirements for the chemical process industries to reduce hazardous emissions have increased ever since. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) contribute significantly to the formation of ozone and photochemical oxidants and their associated impact on human health has become a major issue worldwide. Volatilisation is a significant process in determining the fate of organic compounds in the environment. In this study, volatilisation rate of VOCs (specifically benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) from a wastewater collection basin, also called the oily sewer basin (OSB) was measured using a flux chamber method and the VOCs were characterised. Theoretical models that can be used to estimate volatilisation rate were also studied. Meteorological data was collected to evaluate the effect of temperature, humidity and wind speed on volatilisation rate. This study showed that toluene and ethylbenzene have the highest volatilisation rate compared to benzene and o-xylene. It was found that system conditions and physicochemical properties of a compound have a significant effect on volatilisation. It was also identified that the measured concentrations of VOCs escaping from the OSB do comply with Occupational Health and Safety Act and Regulations 85 of 1993 standards. It was recommended that surfactants be used to inhibit volatilisation of VOCs

Transfer models provide a viable means of determining which skills a student needs in order to solve a given problem. However, constructing a good fitting transfer model requires a lot of trial and error. The main goal of this thesis was to develop a procedure for developing better fit transfer models for intelligent tutoring systems. The procedure implements a search method using association rules as a means of guiding the search. The association rules are mined from the instances in the dataset that the transfer model predicts incorrectly. The association rules found in the mining process determines what operation to perform on the current transfer model. Our search algorithm using association rules was compared to a blind search method that finds all possible transfer models for a given set of factors. Our search process was able to find statistically similar models to the ones the blind search method finds in a considerably shorter amount of time. The difference in times between our search process and the blind search method is days to minutes. Being able to find good transfer models quicker will help intelligent tutor system builders as well as cognitive science researchers better assess what makes certain problems hard and other problems easy for students.

Knowledge transfer has been identified as a strategic process for bridging the persistent gap between theory and practice. In biodiversity management, experts generate different types of knowledge that is transferred to citizen communities for practice. On the other hand, citizens constantly interact with their biosphere and from time to time are requested to convey ground knowledge to the experts for scientific analysis and interpretation. The transfer of knowledge between experts and citizens is faced by different challenges key among them being the large volume of the knowledge, complexity of the knowledge, as well as variegated absorptive capacity among citizen communities. Knowledge transfer models adopted for expert-citizen engagement in the biodiversity management domain must therefore consider these characteristics of the domain. Advances in computing technologies present opportunities to create knowledge transfer models that can minimize these challenges. Current knowledge transfer models were created mainly for organizational knowledge transfer and without consideration of specific computing technologies as a mode of knowledge transfer. These challenges and opportunities highlighted a need to investigate how a technology-based knowledge transfer model for biodiversity management could be created. The focus of this study was to explore enhancement of knowledge transfer in the biodiversity management domain using two specific technologies; knowledge representation using ontologies and crowd computing. The research draws from existing knowledge transfer models and properties of the two technologies. This study assumed the pragmatist philosophical stance and adopted the design science research (DSR) approach which is characterised by two intertwined cycles of ‘build’ and ‘evaluate’. The research produced two main contributions from the two cycles. The build cycle led to creation of a technology-based model for knowledge transfer between experts and citizens in the biodiversity domain and was named the Biodiversity Management Knowledge Transfer (BiMaKT) model. Evaluation cycle resulted in development of a platform for transfer of biodiversity management knowledge between experts and citizens. The BiMaKT model reveals that two technologies; knowledge representation using ontologies and crowd computing, could be synergised to enable knowledge transfer between experts and citizens in biodiversity management. It is suggested that this model be utilised to guide development of biodiversity management applications where knowledge needs to be transferred between experts and citizens. The model also presents opportunity for exploration in other domains, especially where experts and citizens need to exchange knowledge. The knowledge transfer platform, reveals that the BiMaKT model could be used to guide development of biodiversity management knowledge transfer platforms. The study utilises a case of fruit fly control and management knowledge transfer between fruit fly experts and fruit farmers for evaluation of the contributions. An experiment using the case demonstrated that the challenges facing knowledge transfer in the domain could be reduced through ontological modelling of domain knowledge and harnessing of online crowds participation through crowd computing. The platform presents opportunity for more empirical studies on usage of the platform in knowledge transfer activities. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2017. / Informatics / PhD / Unrestricted

Analyzing human learning and performance accurately is one of the main goals of an Intelligent Tutoring System. The“ASSISTment" system is a web-based system that blends assisting students and assessing their performance by providing feedback to the teachers. Good cognitive models are needed for an Intelligent Tutoring system to do a better job at predicting student performance. The ASSISTment system uses a method of cognitive modeling which is called a transfer model. A Transfer Model is a matrix that maps questions to skills. Other researchers have shown that transfer models help in building better predictive models that in-turn help in assessing a student's performance [1, 8]. They provide a viable means of representing a subject matter expert's view of which skills are needed to solve a given problem. However, the process of building a transfer model requires a lot of time. Reducing the time in which a transfer model is built would in turn help reduce the cost of building an Intelligent Tutoring System. Being able to build better transfer models will provide more efficient means of predicting learning in an intelligent tutoring system [6]. In this thesis we studied the creation of one transfer model that maps approximately the 263 released MCAS items to approximately 90 skills. Recently, [5] and [9], using two different modeling methodologies, have both concluded that this transfer model can be used to predict MCAS scores more accurately. Currently the time spent in creating and storing a model is estimated to be approximately 65 hours. This thesis was motivated by the need of a set of tools that would reduce the time spent in building a transfer model. The goal of this thesis was to create a tool that would speed up the process of building a transfer model. The efficiency of this tool is measured by an estimate of the overall time reduced for building a model. The average time reduced by using the tool on per question basis is also measured. The tool is not evaluated for its usability or for the ability to build better fitting transfer models.

The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) provides atmospheric observations with high spectral resolution and its data have been shown to have a significant positive impact on global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and trace gas retrievals. A fundamental component of the retrieval of atmospheric composition is the radiative transfer model used to simulate the observations. An accurate representation of the expected emission spectrum measured by the satellite is essential given that differences in the reproduced atmospheric spectra propagate through a retrieval procedure and produce an altered estimate of the atmospheric state. The importance of the assumptions within the forward model are discussed and it is established that in the simulation of spectra from satellite-borne instruments the choice of the model parameters can have a large impact upon the resulting output. These assumptions are explored in the context of the Reference Forward Model (RFM), which is further configured to optimise its output for simulating the IASI spectrum in the troposphere. In order to ascertain the consistency of different radiative transfer models, comparisons are carried out between the RFM and the Radiative Transfer model for TOVS (RTTOV) in order to quantify any discrepancies in the reproduction of IASI measurements. Good agreement is shown across the majority of the spectrum, with exceptions caused by CO₂ line mixing effects and the H₂O continuum. Alongside model comparisons, the RFM is validated against real IASI measurements. Being a Fourier Transform Spectrometer, there are a large number of channels available from the IASI instrument, which leads to a very large quantity of data. However, this can lead to problems within retrievals and data assimilation. Choosing an optimal subset of the channels is an established method to reduce the amount of data; maintaining the information contained within it whilst eliminating spectral regions with large uncertainties. The method currently used at the UK Met Office to select their spectral channels is re-assessed and a modified method is presented that improves upon the modelling of spectrally correlated errors.

No / We describe a series of experiments designed to investigate the conformational transition that highly-branched polymers with ligands undergo when interacting with bacteria, a process that may provide a new sensing mechanism for bacterial detection. Fluorescent highly-branched poly(N-isopropyl acrylamide)s (HB-PNIPAM) were prepared by sequential self-condensing radical copolymerizations, using anthrylmethyl methacrylate (AMMA) and fluorescein-O-acrylate (FA) as fluorescent comonomers and 4-vinylbenzyl pyrrole carbodithioate as a branch forming monomer. Differences in reactivity necessitated to first copolymerize AMMA then react with FA in a separate sequential monomer feed step. Modifications of the chain ends produced vancomycin-functional derivatives (HB-PNIPAM-Van). The AMMA and FA labels allow probing of the conformational behaviour of the polymers in solution via Forster resonance energy transfer experiments. It was shown that interaction of this polymer's end groups with Staphylococcus aureus induced a macromolecular collapse. The data thus provide conclusive evidence for a conformational transition that is driven by binding to a bacterium.

Αντικείμενο της παρούσας διδακτορικής διατριβής αποτελεί η θεωρητική και υπολογιστική προσομοίωση της πτήσης ατμοσφαιρικής καθόδου υψηλών ταχυτήτων, με ιδιαίτερη έμφαση στις υπερυπερηχητικές ταχύτητες και την αεροδυναμική και θερμοδυναμική ανάλυσή της. Η μεθοδολογία που ακολουθείται έχει ως κύριο σκοπό την πρόβλεψη του ίχνους επιστροφής υπερυπερηχητικών οχημάτων στη Γη, με δεδομένο οι ταχύτητες πτήσης να φτάνουν τα 15000 m/s (αριθμός Mach ~ 40) και οι θερμοκρασίες ανακοπής τους 15000 Κ. Στην εργασία αυτή ακολουθείται μεθοδολογική προσέγγιση και συστηματική βιβλιογραφική έρευνα στον επιστημονικοτεχνικό τομέα της αεροδυναμικής υπερθέρμανσης, που υφίστανται Υπερυπερηχητικά Οχήματα (Υ/Ο), κατά την πτήση τους στην ατμόσφαιρα. Η ανάλυση της υπερυπερηχητικής ροής, των θερμικών φορτίων και οι μέθοδοι θερμοθωράκισης των Υ/Ο αναπτύσσονται τις τελευταίες δεκαετίες και εξελίσσονται συνεχώς, αλλά μέχρι και σήμερα (2008), προκύπτουν αστοχίες, κυρίως κατά την επανείσοδό τους στην ατμόσφαιρα από το διάστημα. Για την προσομοίωση της υπερυπερηχητικής πτήσης καθόδου στην ατμόσφαιρα γίνεται μελέτη και ανάλυση των θερμοχημικών ιδιοτήτων και παραμέτρων, οι οποίες χαρακτηρίζουν τα ροϊκά πεδία στις υψηλές ταχύτητες και υψηλές θερμοκρασίες. Ο προσδιορισμός των μεταβαλλόμενων ροϊκών συνθηκών, των θερμοδυναμικών ιδιοτήτων και μεγεθών μεταφοράς θα συμβάλλει στις θεωρίες μοντελοποίησης και υπολογισμού της υψηλής θερμικής καταπόνησης, της σύστασης του υπέρθερμου αέρα και της υψηλής θερμοκρασίας του στην εξωτερική επιφάνεια του θερμομονωτικού τοιχώματος οχημάτων υψηλών ταχυτήτων, κατά την πτήση τους στην ατμόσφαιρα της Γης. Στα πλαίσια αυτά αναπτύσσονται υπολογιστικοί αλγόριθμοι προσομοίωσης και επιτυχούς πρόβλεψης του ατμοσφαιρικού ίχνους καθόδου οχημάτων υπερυπερηχητικής μεταφοράς. Τα βασικά αεροδυναμικά χαρακτηριστικά των ανωστικών οχημάτων στις υψηλές ταχύτητες υπολογίζονται με κατάλληλη προσαρμογή της κλασσικής Νευτώνειας Ροής στις υψηλές ταχύτητες και επιβεβαιώνονται με πειραματικά δεδομένα αεροδυναμικών μετρήσεων σε αεροσήραγγες υψηλών ταχυτήτων της NASA. Επιπλέον στη διατριβή ενσωματώνονται μοντέλα προσομοίωσης των ιδιοτήτων συμπεριφοράς του υπέρθερμου αέρα ως πραγματικού αερίου σε συνθήκες θερμοδυναμικής ισορροπίας σε ακραίες ροϊκές συνθήκες (υψηλές ταχύτητες, υψηλές πιέσεις και χαμηλές πυκνότητες). Πιο συγκεκριμένα γίνεται ανάλυση της μεταβαλλόμενης σύστασης και των ιδιοτήτων του αέρα (θερμοδυναμικά μεγέθη και μεγέθη μεταφοράς) στις πολύ υψηλές θερμοκρασίες του υπέρθερμου ροϊκού πεδίου. Η μελέτη αυτή θα οδηγήσει στην εξαγωγή ενός νέου μοντέλου υπολογισμού της μεταφερόμενης θερμικής ροής στην περιοχή ανακοπής υπερυπερηχητικών οχημάτων, το οποίο επιβεβαιώνεται τόσο με διεθνώς αναγνωρισμένα θερμικά μοντέλα (όπως αυτό των Fay-Riddell) όσο και με υπολογιστικές προσομοιώσεις άλλων ερευνητών. Η μεθοδολογία που ακολουθείται θα αποτελέσει τη βάση για την εξαγωγή ενός νέου θεωρητικού μοντέλου υπολογισμού της θερμοκρασίας του αέρα στην επιφάνεια του θερμοθώρακα του υπερυπερηχητικού οχήματος. Η αποτελεσματικότητα της προτεινόμενης μεθοδολογίας, με το συνδυασμό κινηματικής και αεροθερμοδυναμικής ανάλυσης σε ενιαίο υπολογιστικό αλγόριθμο, αποδεικνύεται και ενισχύεται μέσω της εφαρμογής των ανωτέρω μοντέλων προσομοίωσης σε βαλλιστικό (διαστημικός θαλαμίσκος Απόλλων) και ανωστικό (Σύστημα Διαστημικής Μεταφοράς, γνωστό ως Διαστημικό Λεωφορείο Space Shuttle) υπερυπερηχητικό όχημα. Τα αποτελέσματα της προτεινόμενης μεθόδου συγκρίνονται, αξιολογούνται και πιστοποιούνται με παρόμοια από διεθνώς αναγνωρισμένα υπολογιστικά συστήματα και πειραματικά δεδομένα μετρήσεων σε υπερυπερηχητικές αεροσήραγγες οχημάτων υψηλών ταχυτήτων. Μέσα στις επόμενες δεκαετίες, η εξέλιξη των υπερυπερηχητικών συστημάτων μεταφοράς θα είναι ραγδαία και ιδιαίτερα ελκυστική από τεχνολογικής πλευράς με ελπιδοφόρα μηνύματα για "γήϊνες" μετακινήσεις με υψηλές ταχύτητες σε σύντομους χρόνους, αλλά και πιθανές μετοικήσεις ανθρώπων-αστροναυτών σε άλλους πλανήτες του ηλιακού συστήματος. Έτσι η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή, αξιοποιώντας τις προόδους που έχουν συντελεστεί τα τελευταία χρόνια, εκτιμάται ότι συμβάλλει ουσιαστικά στο ακόμα υπό εξέλιξη – για τα ελληνικά δεδομένα πρωτόγνωρο – επιστημονικό πεδίο της Υπερυπερηχητικής Αεροθερμοδυναμικής, και στην ανάπτυξη μεθοδολογίας για τον αεροθερμοδυναμικό σχεδιασμό υπερυπερηχητικών οχημάτων. Το προτεινόμενο σύνθετο μοντέλο κινηματικής και θερμοδυναμικής υπολογιστικής ανάλυσης και η μεθοδολογία που ακολουθείται έχει ισχύ και εφαρμογή στην πλειονότητα των περιπτώσεων των υπερυπερηχητικών πτήσεων στη γήινη και, με κατάλληλες προσαρμογές, σε οποιαδήποτε πλανητική ατμόσφαιρα. Βεβαίως, η προτεινόμενη μεθοδολογία έχει περιθώρια εξέλιξης και ανάπτυξης, προκειμένου να βελτιωθεί η απόδοσή της με την εισαγωγή και νέων στοιχείων, αλλά και να διευρυνθεί το φάσμα των δυνατών εφαρμογών της. / The object of the present doctoral thesis constitutes the theoretical and calculating simulation of high-speed atmospheric flightmotion, with particular emphasis in hypersonic speeds and aerodynamic and thermodynamic analysis. The methodology that is followed has as main aim the prediction of return flight trace of hypersonic vehicles in Earth’s ground, assuming the speeds of flight to reach the 15000 m/s (Mach number ~ 40) and stagnation temperatures the 15000 K. In this work are followed methodological approach and systematic bibliographic research in the scientific field of aerodynamic overheating that suffers Hypersonic Vehicles(H/V) at their flight in Earth’s atmosphere. The analysis of hypersonic flow, thermal loads and new methods for thermal protection systems of H/V are developed the last decades and are evolved continuously, but until today (2008) resulting failures mainly at their reentry in atmosphere from the interval. For the simulation of the atmospheric hypersonic flight motion become study and analysis of thermodynamic properties and parameters, that characterize the flow fields in high speeds and high temperatures. The determination of altered flow conditions, thermodynamic properties and transport magnitudes will contribute in the theories of modelling and high thermal strain calculations, in the constitution of overheating air and it’s high temperature determination in the external surface of heat insulation wall of high-speed vehicles at their flight in Earth’s atmosphere. In this work are developed calculating algorithms of simulation for the successful prediction of atmospheric flight motion of hypersonic transport vehicles. The basic aerodynamic characteristics of lifting vehicles in high speeds are calculated with suitable adaptation of classic Newtonian Flow in high speeds and are confirmed with experimental data of aerodynamic measurements in high speed wind-tunnels of NASA. Moreover in this thesis are incorporated models for the simulation of properties of overheating air behaviour as real gas in thermodynamic balance in extreme flow conditions (high speeds, high pressures and low densities). Particularly becomes analysis of the altered constitution and properties of air (thermodynamic magnitudes and transport magnitudes) in very high temperatures on hypersonic flow field. This study will lead to the export of a new model for the transported thermal stagnation region calculations of hypersonic vehicles, which is confirmed so much with internationally recognized thermal models (as that of Fay-Riddell) and with calculating simulations of other researchers. The methodology that is followed will constitute the base for the export of a new theoretical model for high temperature air calculations in thermal protection systems surface of hypersonic vehicles. The effectiveness of proposed methodology, with the combination kinematic and aerothermodynamics analysis in united calculating algorithm, is proved and confirmed via the application of above simulation models on ballistic (Apollo Command Module) and lifting (Space Transportation System, known as Space Shuttle) hypersonic vehicles. The results of proposed method are compared, evaluated and certified with similarly by internationally recognized calculating systems and experimental data of measurements in hypersonic wind-tunnels for high speed vehicles. In the next decades, the development of hypersonic transportation systems will be rapid and particularly attractive from technological side with hopeful messages for “earthy” transfers with high speeds in short times, but also likely persons-astronaut missions in other planets of solar system. Thus the present doctoral thesis, developing the progress that has taken place in the past few years, is appreciated that it contributes substantially in still under development - for the Greek data unusual - scientific field of Hypersonic Aerothermodynamics, and in the growth of methodology for the aerothermodynamic construction of hypersonic vehicles. The proposed complex model of kinematic and thermodynamic calculating analysis and it’s methodology that is followed have influence and application in the majority of cases of hypersonic flights in earthy and, with properly adaptations, in anyone planetary atmosphere. Of course, the proposed methodology has margins of development and growth in order to improve her efficiency with the import of also new elements and also extended the spectrum of her possible applications.

Savannahs regulate an agro-ecosystem crucial for the production of domestic livestock, one of the main sources of income worldwide as well as in South African rural communities. Nevertheless, globally these ecosystem functions are threatened by intense human exploitation, inappropriate land use and environmental changes. Leaf area index (LAI) defined as one half the total green leaf area per unit ground surface area, is an inventory of the plant green leaves that defines the actual size of the interface between the vegetation and the atmosphere. Thus, LAI spatial data could serve as an indicator of rangeland productivity. Consequently, the accurate and rapid estimation of LAI is a key requirement for farmers and policy makers to devise sustainable management strategies for rangeland resources. In this study, the main focus was to assess the utility and the accuracy of the PROSAILH radiative transfer model (RTM) to estimate LAI in the South African rangeland on the recently launched Landsat 8 sensor data. The Landsat 8 sensor has been a promising sensor for estimating grassland LAI as compared to its predecessors Landsat 5 to 7 sensors because of its increased radiometric resolution. For this purpose, two PROSAIL inversion methods and semi- empirical methods such as Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were utilized to estimate LAI. The results showed that physically based approaches surpassed empirical approach with highest accuracy yielded by artificial neural network (ANN) inversion approach (RMSE=0.138), in contrast to the Look-Up Table (LUT) approach (RMSE=0.265). In conclusion, the results of this study proved that PROSAIL RTM approach on Landsat 8 data could be utilized to accurately estimate LAI at regional scale which could aid in rapid assessment and monitoring of the rangeland resources. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)

Extensive deforestations, particularly in the (sub)tropics, have led to intense soil degradation and erosion with concomitant reduction in soil fertility. Reforestations or plantations on those degraded sites may provide effective measures to mitigate further soil degradation and erosion, and can lead to improved soil quality. However, a change in land use from, e.g., grassland to forest may have a crucial impact on water balance. This may affect water availability even under humid tropical climate conditions where water is normally not a limiting factor. In this context, it should also be considered that according to climate change projections rainfall may decrease in some of these regions. To mitigate climate change related problems (e.g. increases in erosion and drought), reforestations are often carried out. Unfortunately, those measures are seldom completely successful, because the environmental conditions and the plant specific requirements are not appropriately taken into account. This is often due to data-scarcity and limited financial resources in tropical regions. For this reason, innovative approaches are required that are able to measure environmental conditions quasi-continuously in a cost-effective manner. Simultaneously, reforestation measures should be accompanied by monitoring in order to evaluate reforestation success and to mitigate, or at least to reduce, potential problems associated with reforestation (e.g. water scarcity). To avoid reforestation failure and negative implications on ecosystem services, it is crucial to get insights into the water balance of the actual ecosystem, and potential changes resulting from reforestation. The identification and prediction of water balance changes as a result of reforestation under climate change requires the consideration of the complex feedback system of processes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. Models that account for those feedback system are Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) models. For the before-mentioned reasons, this study targeted two main objectives: (i) to develop and test a method combination for site evaluation under data scarcity (i.e. study requirements) (Part I) and (ii) to investigate the consequences of prediction uncertainty of the SVAT model input parameters, which were derived using geophysical methods, on SVAT modeling (Part II). A water balance modeling approach was set at the center of the site evaluation approach. This study used the one-dimensional CoupModel, which is a SVAT model. CoupModel requires detailed spatial soil information for (i) model parameterization, (ii) upscaling of model results and accounting for local to regional-scale soil heterogeneity, and (iii) monitoring of changes in soil properties and plant characteristics over time. Since traditional approaches to soil and vegetation sampling and monitoring are time consuming and expensive (and therefore often limited to point information), geophysical methods were used to overcome this spatial limitation. For this reason, vis-NIR spectroscopy (visible to near-infrared wavelength range) was applied for the measurement of soil properties (physical and chemical), and remote sensing to derive vegetation characteristics (i.e. leaf area index (LAI)). Since the estimated soil properties (mainly texture) could be used to parameterize a SVAT model, this study investigated the whole processing chain and related prediction uncertainty of soil texture and LAI, and their impact on CoupModel water balance prediction uncertainty. A greenhouse experiment with bamboo plants was carried out to determine plant-physiological characteristics needed for CoupModel parameterization. Geoelectrics was used to investigate soil layering, with the intent of determining site-representative soil profiles for model parameterization. Soil structure was investigated using image analysis techniques that allow the quantitative assessment and comparability of structural features. In order to meet the requirements of the selected study approach, the developed methodology was applied and tested for a site in NE-Brazil (which has low data availability) with a bamboo plantation as the test site and a secondary forest as the reference (reference site). Nevertheless, the objective of the thesis was not the concrete modeling of the case study site, but rather the evaluation of the suitability of the selected methods to evaluate sites for reforestations and to monitor their influence on the water balance as well as soil properties. The results (Part III) highlight that one needs to be aware of the measurement uncertainty related to SVAT model input parameters, so for instance the uncertainty of model input parameters such as soil texture and leaf area index influences meaningfully the simulated model water balance output. Furthermore, this work indicates that vis-NIR spectroscopy is a fast and cost-efficient method for soil measurement, mapping, and monitoring of soil physical (texture) and chemical (N, TOC, TIC, TC) properties, where the quality of soil prediction depends on the instrument (e.g. sensor resolution), the sample properties (i.e. chemistry), and the site characteristics (i.e. climate). Additionally, also the sensitivity of the CoupModel with respect to texture prediction uncertainty with respect to surface runoff, transpiration, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and soil water content depends on site conditions (i.e. climate and soil type). For this reason, it is recommended that SVAT model sensitivity analysis be carried out prior to field spectroscopic measurements to account for site specific climate and soil conditions. Nevertheless, mapping of the soil properties estimated via spectroscopy using kriging resulted in poor interpolation (i.e. weak variograms) results as a consequence of a summation of uncertainty arising from the method of field measurement to mapping (i.e. spectroscopic soil prediction, kriging error) and site-specific ‘small-scale’ heterogeneity. The selected soil evaluation method (vis-NIR spectroscopy, structure comparison using image analysis, traditional laboratory analysis) showed that there are significant differences between the bamboo soil and the adjacent secondary forest soil established on the same soil type (Vertisol). Reflecting on the major study results, it can be stated that the selected method combination is a way forward to a more detailed and efficient way to evaluate the suitability of a specific site for reforestation. The results of this study provide insights into where and when during soil and vegetation measurements a high measurement accuracy is required to minimize uncertainties in SVAT modeling. / Umfangreiche Abholzungen, besonders in den (Sub-)Tropen, habe zu intensiver Bodendegradierung und Erosion mit einhergehendem Verlust der Bodenfruchtbarkeit geführt. Eine wirksame Maßnahme zur Vermeidung fortschreitender Bodendegradierung und Erosion sind Aufforstungen auf diesen Flächen, die bisweilen zu einer verbesserten Bodenqualität führen können. Eine Umwandlung von Grünland zu Wald kann jedoch einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf den Wasserhaushalt haben. Selbst unter humid-tropischen Klimabedingungen, wo Wasser in der Regel kein begrenzender Faktor ist, können sich Aufforstungen negativ auf die Wasserverfügbarkeit auswirken. In diesem Zusammenhang muss auch berücksichtigt werden, dass Klimamodelle eine Abnahme der Niederschläge in einigen dieser Regionen prognostizieren. Um die Probleme, die mit dem Klimawandel in Verbindung stehen zu mildern (z.B. Zunahme von Erosion und Dürreperioden), wurden und werden bereits umfangreiche Aufforstungsmaßnahmen durchgeführt. Viele dieser Maßnahmen waren nicht immer umfassend erfolgreich, weil die Umgebungsbedingungen sowie die pflanzenspezifischen Anforderungen nicht angemessen berücksichtigt wurden. Dies liegt häufig an der schlechten Datengrundlage sowie an den in vielen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern begrenzter verfügbarer finanzieller Mittel. Aus diesem Grund werden innovative Ansätze benötigt, die in der Lage sind quasi-kontinuierlich und kostengünstig die Standortbedingungen zu erfassen und zu bewerten. Gleichzeitig sollte eine Überwachung der Wiederaufforstungsmaßnahme erfolgen, um deren Erfolg zu bewerten und potentielle negative Effekte (z.B. Wasserknappheit) zu erkennen und diesen entgegenzuwirken bzw. reduzieren zu können. Um zu vermeiden, dass Wiederaufforstungen fehlschlagen oder negative Auswirkungen auf die Ökosystemdienstleistungen haben, ist es entscheidend, Kenntnisse vom tatsächlichen Wasserhaushalt des Ökosystems zu erhalten und Änderungen des Wasserhaushalts durch Wiederaufforstungen vorhersagen zu können. Die Ermittlung und Vorhersage von Wasserhaushaltsänderungen infolge einer Aufforstung unter Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels erfordert die Berücksichtigung komplex-verzahnter Rückkopplungsprozesse im Boden-Vegetations-Atmosphären Kontinuum. Hydrologische Modelle, die explizit den Einfluss der Vegetation auf den Wasserhaushalt untersuchen sind Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) Modelle. Die vorliegende Studie verfolgte zwei Hauptziele: (i) die Entwicklung und Erprobung einer Methodenkombination zur Standortbewertung unter Datenknappheit (d.h. Grundanforderung des Ansatzes) (Teil I) und (ii) die Untersuchung des Einflusses der mit geophysikalischen Methoden vorhergesagten SVAT-Modeleingangsparameter (d.h. Vorhersageunsicherheiten) auf die Modellierung (Teil II). Eine Wasserhaushaltsmodellierung wurde in den Mittelpunkt der Methodenkombination gesetzt. In dieser Studie wurde das 1D SVAT Model CoupModel verwendet. CoupModel benötigen detaillierte räumliche Bodeninformationen (i) zur Modellparametrisierung, (ii) zum Hochskalierung von Modellergebnissen unter Berücksichtigung lokaler und regionaler Bodenheterogenität, und (iii) zur Beobachtung (Monitoring) der zeitlichen Veränderungen des Bodens und der Vegetation. Traditionelle Ansätze zur Messung von Boden- und Vegetationseigenschaften und deren Monitoring sind jedoch zeitaufwendig, teuer und beschränken sich daher oft auf Punktinformationen. Ein vielversprechender Ansatz zur Überwindung der räumlichen Einschränkung sind die Nutzung geophysikalischer Methoden. Aus diesem Grund wurden vis-NIR Spektroskopie (sichtbarer bis nah-infraroter Wellenlängenbereich) zur quasi-kontinuierlichen Messung von physikalischer und chemischer Bodeneigenschaften und Satelliten-basierte Fernerkundung zur Ableitung von Vegetationscharakteristika (d.h. Blattflächenindex (BFI)) eingesetzt. Da die mit geophysikalisch hergeleiteten Bodenparameter (hier Bodenart) und Pflanzenparameter zur Parametrisierung eines SVAT Models verwendet werden können, wurde die gesamte Prozessierungskette und die damit verbundenen Unsicherheiten und deren potentiellen Auswirkungen auf die Wasserhaushaltsmodellierung mit CoupModel untersucht. Ein Gewächshausexperiment mit Bambuspflanzen wurde durchgeführt, um die zur CoupModel Parametrisierung notwendigen pflanzenphysio- logischen Parameter zu bestimmen. Geoelektrik wurde eingesetzt, um die Bodenschichtung der Untersuchungsfläche zu untersuchen und ein repräsentatives Bodenprofil zur Modellierung zu definieren. Die Bodenstruktur wurde unter Verwendung einer Bildanalysetechnik ausgewertet, die die qualitativen Bewertung und Vergleichbarkeit struktureller Merkmale ermöglicht. Um den Anforderungen des gewählten Standortbewertungsansatzes gerecht zu werden, wurde die Methodik auf einem Standort mit einer Bambusplantage und einem Sekundärregenwald (als Referenzfläche) in NO-Brasilien (d.h. geringe Datenverfügbarkeit) entwickelt und getestet. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit war jedoch nicht die Modellierung dieses konkreten Standortes, sondern die Bewertung der Eignung des gewählten Methodenansatzes zur Standortbewertung für Aufforstungen und deren zeitliche Beobachtung, als auch die Bewertung des Einfluss von Aufforstungen auf den Wasserhaushalt und die Bodenqualität. Die Ergebnisse (Teil III) verdeutlichen, dass es notwendig ist, sich den potentiellen Einfluss der Messunsicherheiten der SVAT Modelleingangsparameter auf die Modellierung bewusst zu sein. Beispielsweise zeigte sich, dass die Vorhersageunsicherheiten der Bodentextur und des BFI einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf die Wasserhaushaltsmodellierung mit CoupModel hatte. Die Arbeit zeigt weiterhin, dass vis-NIR Spektroskopie zur schnellen und kostengünstigen Messung, Kartierung und Überwachung boden-physikalischer (Bodenart) und -chemischer (N, TOC, TIC, TC) Eigenschaften geeignet ist. Die Qualität der Bodenvorhersage hängt vom Instrument (z.B. Sensorauflösung), den Probeneigenschaften (z.B. chemische Zusammensetzung) und den Standortmerkmalen (z.B. Klima) ab. Die Sensitivitätsanalyse mit CoupModel zeigte, dass der Einfluss der spektralen Bodenartvorhersageunsicherheiten auf den mit CoupModel simulierten Oberflächenabfluss, Evaporation, Transpiration und Evapotranspiration ebenfalls von den Standortbedingungen (z.B. Klima, Bodentyp) abhängt. Aus diesem Grund wird empfohlen eine SVAT Model Sensitivitätsanalyse vor der spektroskopischen Feldmessung von Bodenparametern durchzuführen, um die Standort-spezifischen Boden- und Klimabedingungen angemessen zu berücksichtigen. Die Anfertigung einer Bodenkarte unter Verwendung von Kriging führte zu schlechten Interpolationsergebnissen in Folge der Aufsummierung von Mess- und Schätzunsicherheiten (d.h. bei spektroskopischer Feldmessung, Kriging-Fehler) und der kleinskaligen Bodenheterogenität. Anhand des gewählten Bodenbewertungsansatzes (vis-NIR Spektroskopie, Strukturvergleich mit Bildanalysetechnik, traditionelle Laboranalysen) konnte gezeigt werden, dass es bei gleichem Bodentyp (Vertisol) signifikante Unterschiede zwischen den Böden unter Bambus und Sekundärwald gibt. Anhand der wichtigsten Ergebnisse kann festgehalten werden, dass die gewählte Methodenkombination zur detailreicheren und effizienteren Standortuntersuchung und -bewertung für Aufforstungen beitragen kann. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie geben einen Einblick darauf, wo und wann bei Boden- und Vegetationsmessungen eine besonders hohe Messgenauigkeit erforderlich ist, um Unsicherheiten bei der SVAT Modellierung zu minimieren. / Extensos desmatamentos que estão sendo feitos especialmente nos trópicos e sub-trópicos resultam em uma intensa degradação do solo e num aumento da erosão gerando assim uma redução na sua fertilidade. Reflorestamentos ou plantações nestas áreas degradadas podem ser medidas eficazes para atenuar esses problemas e levar a uma melhoria da qualidade do mesmo. No entanto, uma mudança no uso da terra, por exemplo de pastagem para floresta pode ter um impacto crucial no balanço hídrico e isso pode afetar a disponibilidade de água, mesmo sob condições de clima tropical úmido, onde a água normalmente não é um fator limitante. Devemos levar também em consideração que de acordo com projeções de mudanças climáticas, as precipitações em algumas dessas regiões também diminuirão agravando assim, ainda mais o quadro apresentado. Para mitigar esses problemas relacionados com as alterações climáticas, reflorestamentos são frequentemente realizados mas raramente são bem-sucedidos, pois condições ambientais como os requisitos específicos de cada espécie de planta, não são devidamente levados em consideração. Isso é muitas vezes devido, não só pela falta de dados, como também por recursos financeiros limitados, que são problemas comuns em regiões tropicais. Por esses motivos, são necessárias abordagens inovadoras que devam ser capazes de medir as condições ambientais quase continuamente e de maneira rentável. Simultaneamente com o reflorestamento, deve ser feita uma monitoração a fim de avaliar o sucesso da atividade e para prevenir, ou pelo menos, reduzir os problemas potenciais associados com o mesmo (por exemplo, a escassez de água). Para se evitar falhas e reduzir implicações negativas sobre os ecossistemas, é crucial obter percepções sobre o real balanço hídrico e as mudanças que seriam geradas por esse reflorestamento. Por este motivo, esta tese teve como objetivo desenvolver e testar uma combinação de métodos para avaliação de áreas adequadas para reflorestamento. Com esse intuito, foi colocada no centro da abordagem de avaliação a modelagem do balanço hídrico local, que permite a identificação e estimação de possíveis alterações causadas pelo reflorestamento sob mudança climática considerando o sistema complexo de realimentação e a interação de processos do continuum solo-vegetação-atmosfera. Esses modelos hidrológicos que investigam explicitamente a influência da vegetação no equilíbrio da água são conhecidos como modelos Solo-Vegetação-Atmosfera (SVAT). Esta pesquisa focou em dois objetivos principais: (i) desenvolvimento e teste de uma combinação de métodos para avaliação de áreas que sofrem com a escassez de dados (pré-requisito do estudo) (Parte I), e (ii) a investigação das consequências da incerteza nos parâmetros de entrada do modelo SVAT, provenientes de dados geofísicos, para modelagem hídrica (Parte II). A fim de satisfazer esses objetivos, o estudo foi feito no nordeste brasileiro,por representar uma área de grande escassez de dados, utilizando como base uma plantação de bambu e uma área de floresta secundária. Uma modelagem do balanço hídrico foi disposta no centro da metodologia para a avaliação de áreas. Este estudo utilizou o CoupModel que é um modelo SVAT unidimensional e que requer informações espaciais detalhadas do solo para (i) a parametrização do modelo, (ii) aumento da escala dos resultados da modelagem, considerando a heterogeneidade do solo de escala local para regional e (iii) o monitoramento de mudanças nas propriedades do solo e características da vegetação ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, as abordagens tradicionais para amostragem de solo e de vegetação e o monitoramento são demorados e caros e portanto muitas vezes limitadas a informações pontuais. Por esta razão, métodos geofísicos como a espectroscopia visível e infravermelho próximo (vis-NIR) e sensoriamento remoto foram utilizados respectivamente para a medição de propriedades físicas e químicas do solo e para derivar as características da vegetação baseado no índice da área foliar (IAF). Como as propriedades estimadas de solo (principalmente a textura) poderiam ser usadas para parametrizar um modelo SVAT, este estudo investigou toda a cadeia de processamento e as incertezas de previsão relacionadas à textura de solo e ao IAF. Além disso explorou o impacto destas incertezas criadas sobre a previsão do balanço hídrico simulado por CoupModel. O método geoelétrico foi aplicado para investigar a estratificação do solo visando a determinação de um perfil representante. Já a sua estrutura foi explorada usando uma técnica de análise de imagens que permitiu a avaliação quantitativa e a comparabilidade dos aspectos estruturais. Um experimento realizado em uma estufa com plantas de bambu (Bambusa vulgaris) foi criado a fim de determinar as caraterísticas fisiológicas desta espécie que posteriormente seriam utilizadas como parâmetros para o CoupModel. Os resultados do estudo (Parte III) destacam que é preciso estar consciente das incertezas relacionadas à medição de parâmetros de entrada do modelo SVAT. A incerteza presente em alguns parâmetros de entrada como por exemplo, textura de solo e o IAF influencia significantemente a modelagem do balanço hídrico. Mesmo assim, esta pesquisa indica que vis-NIR espectroscopia é um método rápido e economicamente viável para medir, mapear e monitorar as propriedades físicas (textura) e químicas (N, TOC, TIC, TC) do solo. A precisão da previsão dessas propriedades depende do tipo de instrumento (por exemplo da resolução do sensor), da propriedade da amostra (a composição química por exemplo) e das características das condições climáticas da área. Os resultados apontam também que a sensitividade do CoupModel à incerteza da previsão da textura de solo em respeito ao escoamento superficial, transpiração, evaporação, evapotranspiração e ao conteúdo de água no solo depende das condições gerais da área (por exemplo condições climáticas e tipo de solo). Por isso, é recomendado realizar uma análise de sensitividade do modelo SVAT prior a medição espectral do solo no campo, para poder considerar adequadamente as condições especificas do área em relação ao clima e ao solo. Além disso, o mapeamento de propriedades de solo previstas pela espectroscopia usando o kriging, resultou em interpolações de baixa qualidade (variogramas fracos) como consequência da acumulação de incertezas surgidas desde a medição no campo até o seu mapeamento (ou seja, previsão do solo via espectroscopia, erro do kriging) e heterogeneidade especifica de uma pequena escala. Osmétodos selecionados para avaliação das áreas (vis-NIR espectroscopia, comparação da estrutura de solo por meio de análise de imagens, análise de laboratório tradicionais) revelou a existência de diferenças significativas entre o solo sob bambu e o sob floresta secundária, apesar de ambas terem sido estabelecidas no mesmo tipo de solo (vertissolo). Refletindo sobre os principais resultados do estudo, pode-se afirmar que a combinação dos métodos escolhidos e aplicados representam uma forma mais detalhada e eficaz de avaliar se uma determinada área é adequada para ser reflorestada. Os resultados apresentados fornecem percepções sobre onde e quando, durante a medição do solo e da vegetação, é necessário se ter uma precisão mais alta a fim de minimizar incertezas potenciais na modelagem com o modelo SVAT.

Savannahs regulate an agro-ecosystem crucial for the production of domestic livestock, one of the main sources of income worldwide as well as in South African rural communities. Nevertheless, globally these ecosystem functions are threatened by intense human exploitation, inappropriate land use and environmental changes. Leaf area index (LAI) defined as one half the total green leaf area per unit ground surface area, is an inventory of the plant green leaves that defines the actual size of the interface between the vegetation and the atmosphere. Thus, LAI spatial data could serve as an indicator of rangeland productivity. Consequently, the accurate and rapid estimation of LAI is a key requirement for farmers and policy makers to devise sustainable management strategies for rangeland resources. In this study, the main focus was to assess the utility and the accuracy of the PROSAILH radiative transfer model (RTM) to estimate LAI in the South African rangeland on the recently launched Landsat 8 sensor data. The Landsat 8 sensor has been a promising sensor for estimating grassland LAI as compared to its predecessors Landsat 5 to 7 sensors because of its increased radiometric resolution. For this purpose, two PROSAIL inversion methods and semi- empirical methods such as Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were utilized to estimate LAI. The results showed that physically based approaches surpassed empirical approach with highest accuracy yielded by artificial neural network (ANN) inversion approach (RMSE=0.138), in contrast to the Look-Up Table (LUT) approach (RMSE=0.265). In conclusion, the results of this study proved that PROSAIL RTM approach on Landsat 8 data could be utilized to accurately estimate LAI at regional scale which could aid in rapid assessment and monitoring of the rangeland resources. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)