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金融機構預警制度在性質上兼具金融管理及經營評鑑之雙重功能，且對於金融危機具有預防及警戒作用之制度，其意義係依據有關之金融法規與金融業務之經營原則，選定若干變數而訂定一套預警函數、指標、臨界值或基準值、判別模型等，將能夠數據化之部份，利用電腦處理資料並進行統計分析與審察，對於未符合規定、逾越警戒範圍之異常數或脫軌狀況，經過測試與核算後，發出預警信號，以促使主管機關或金融機構（或稱銀行）本身提早注意，並加以防範、及時糾正與改善，以促進其健全經營之制度。 近幾年來，在金融國際化與自由化影響下，金融機構業務已日趨複雜，金融監理機關所擔負的責任也越加沈重，為解決此一困境，如何善用場外監控工具，以彌補實地檢查之不足，應是強化當前金融監理制度的有效方案。我們都知道金融監理機關越來越重視場外監控工作，其中最廣為人知且有效發揮其功能的就是「金融預警系統」，它能評估金融機構績效、篩選問題金融機構及顯示有關警訊等功能，如今已成金融監理機關重要輔助工具之一。 關鍵詞：金融機構預警制度、金融機構、金融監理 / Financial early warning system is a line both in the nature of financial management and operational evaluation of the dual function. To the financial crisis, With the role of prevention and warning system. The significance of means in accordance with relevant laws and regulations of the financial business and financial management principles. Certain number of selected variable set of a number of warning function, indication), cutoff or decimal value, discriminant model. According to the number of data, after testing with the accounting, it cause alarm or signal, so that the issue of the fail to meet the requirement, beyond the scope of the warning or to derail the number of abnormal conditions. To encourage the competent authorities or financial institutions (or banks) early attention to itself. By prevent and promptly correct and improve, to promote the sound management of the system. In recent years, financial institutions have become increasingly complex business and responsible for financial supervision authorities increasingly heavy responsibility, under the influence of the financial internationalization and liberalization. To solve this dilemma, how to make the best use of off-site monitoring tool, make up for lack of spot checks. It should be an effective program to strengthen the current financial supervision system. We all know that more and more attention to the financial supervisory authorities to the work of off-site monitoring. One of the most well-known and effective functioning is the “financial early warning system”. It could assess the performance of financial institutions, financial institutions and the issue of screening show that the functions of the police. For the financial supervision authorities, one of the important auxiliary tool, today. Keywords: financial early warning system, financial institutions, financial supervision

自1980年代各國推行金融自由化後，為穩定金融秩序，建立風險導向金融監理制度更顯重要。一般來說，金融監理工具可分為實地檢查及場外監控兩種，過去以行業別進行之監理，在金融控股公司的發展下，亦發展出對應之監控機制，然而僅止於實地檢查機制，以金融集團為預警對象之場外監控預警系統仍有待建立。 本研究遂在探討如何建立適合我國之以金融集團為預警對象的場外監控預警系統，挑選2003、2004年兩年之本國銀行、票券、證券、壽險、產險公司財務業務比率為樣本，以區別分析法建立預警模型，再以各金融控股公司之子產業公司結果建立各年度金融控股公司之預警模型。 本研究僅嘗試以財務比率建立量化場外監控預警模型，研究結果僅供學術上研究參考，並非運用於真實狀況之評斷，因此，依研究結果提出之結論及建議，僅供參考。此外，(1)模型並未加入質化指標，(2)資料有限的情況下，亦無做樣本外測試，(3)無實際破產金融機構資料，僅能以模擬方法分類，皆是本研究不足之處，仍須修正及改進。

Les crises monétaires sont les premières crises financières de l'histoire économique. Elles se traduisent par l'élimination ou la substitution des monnaies nationales. L'objectif de cette thèse est de poser les fondements théoriques et empiriques des crises monétaires, mais également de proposer un cadre de prévention de ce type de crise qui sévit en zone euro depuis 2008. Les débats économiques et politiques actuels autour des questions de désintégration monétaire témoignent de la persistance et de l'ampleur de la crise, où la légitimité et la souveraineté de la monnaie unique est menacée à moyen long terme. Les divers plans de sauvetage et les politiques d'austérité dans les pays-membres en difficulté ne sont que les conséquences et les coûts directs d'une telle crise. Ces derniers doivent interpeller les autorités de supervision à une plus grande vigilance, ainsi qu'à une politique de prévention plus avisée. L'objectif de cette thèse est double : dans une première partie, nous analysons le concept, les fondements historiques et théoriques des crises monétaires, puis dressons une typologie de celles-ci. Dans une seconde partie, nous apportons une contribution empirique relative aux déterminants des crises monétaires en zone euro et proposons un outil de prévention des crises monétaires, grâce à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée (Early Warning System), par l'approche économétrique de type logit multinomial. Pour ce faire, la détection et la mesure des mésalignements des taux de change réels à l'intérieur de la zone euro est cruciale, puisqu'il constitue l'indicateur premier des crises monétaires. L'estimation des taux de change d'équilibre permettent ainsi d'apprécier la sur ou sous-évaluation des monnaies, indispensable à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée, à des fins de prévention des crises monétaires. / Monetary crises are the first financial crises in economic history, which result in the elimination or substitution of national currencies. The aim of this thesis is to study the theoretical and empirical foundations of monetary crises. Furthermore, a framework for the prevention of such crises, raging in the Euro zone since 2008, is provided. The current economic and political debates about this issue reflect the persistence and the extent of this crisis, in which the Euro's legitimacy and sovereignty is threatened in the medium term. The various rescue plans and austerity policies in troubled member states are direct consequences and costs of this crisis. Consequently, supervisory authorities need to be more vigilant in strengthening their prevention policy. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: in the first part, we analyze the concept, the historical and theoretical foundations of monetary crises, and then develop a typology of them. In the second part, we provide an empirical contribution on the determinants of monetary crises in the euro area and propose a tool for preventing currency crises by setting up an Early Warning System, through the econometric approach of the multinomial logit model. As the primary indicator of monetary crises, the detection and measurement of real exchange rate misalignments within the euro area is decisive. The equilibrium exchange rates estimation allows the assessment of currency over- or undervaluation, which is essential for the implementation of an early warning system

Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-11T14:02:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Andre Alves Nogueira.pdf: 3385945 bytes, checksum: 5c7b555b59610b2dac767f2900bfe5be (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-20 / Weather Extreme Events (WEE) can cause natural disasters because they are often accompanied by dangerous physical activities which cause significant damage to people and properties, including some deaths. A way to soften the damage caused by these disasters is to use Weather Warning System (WWS). These kind of systems can detect an imminent risk and, different types of alerts can be triggered in order to mobilize the emergency personnel in advance. This research aims to help the Amazon Protection System (SIPAM) to solve the communication problem with the alert and mobilization. It is intended, primarily, to assist the Civil Defense with the affected population by WEE. A comparative investigation was performed in ten studies aiming to understand and analyze the main characteristics of a Warning System, which were incorporated into this research, highlighting the support of a Multi-Agent System to assist the WWS, and the use of SMS (Short Message Service) technology and E-mail for sending the alert. System Tests showed that the approach proved promising, with shipping times smaller alerts those found in the literature with a high rate of confirmed users. Also the process of sending the alert factor being faster helps to minimize the effects of EME with the affected population. / Eventos Meteorológicos Extremos (EME) podem gerar desastres naturais, geralmente acompanhados de atividades físicas perigosas que provocam danos significativos a pessoas e propriedades, gerando um grande número de vítimas ou até mesmo mortes. Uma maneira de mitigar os danos causados por estes desastres é a utilização de Sistemas de Alertas Meteorológicos (SAM); sendo detectado um risco iminente, diferentes tipos de alertas podem ser acionados objetivando a mobilização antecipada das equipes de emergência. O presente trabalho visa contribuir com o Sistema de Proteção da Amazônia (SIPAM) ou com órgãos semelhantes para a resolução do problema de comunicação referente à emissão dos alertas e a mobilização, destinando-se principalmente à ação da Defesa Civil e órgãos competentes junto à população em função dos EME ocorridos. Nesta pesquisa foi realizada uma investigação comparativa com dez trabalhos objetivando conhecer e analisar as principais características de um Sistema de Alerta, as quais foram incorporadas neste projeto, destacando-se o apoio de um Sistema Multiagente para auxiliar o SAM, e o uso das tecnologias de SMS (Short Message Service) e E-mail para o envio do alerta. Testes do sistema evidenciaram que a abordagem adotada mostrou-se promissora, apresentando tempos de envio de alertas menores que os encontrados na literatura e com alta taxa de usuários confirmados, fator de muita importância para a minimização dos efeitos dos EME junto à população atingida.

Magister Artium - MA / This dissertation explores the potential contributions of the mechanisms for early warning and intelligence sharing to regional security in Africa. The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Committee on Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) are centrally concerned with the dissemination of information to enable decision-making on continental security. The main focus of the dissertation is on the manner in which the information generated by the CEWS and CISSA can contribute to regional security. In order to analyse the potential contribution of the CEWS and CISSA to regional security, a sound theoretical framework is proposed so as to explore how and why states choose to cooperate, as well as addressing multifaceted cooperation and integration at inter-state, government department and nonstate levels. Constructivist interpretations of international cooperation are utilised to explore the role of ideas, meanings and understandings in shaping behaviour. The focus is placed on the manner in which interaction as provided for by the CEWS and CISSA can shape understandings of reality and potentially impact on the definition of actors' interests. This is based on the assumption drawn from security community and epistemic community theory that, enabling the creation of shared meanings and shared knowledge there is the potential for both the CEWS and CISSA to have a positive influence on the choices that stakeholders take in favour of peaceful change. / South Africa

La surveillance d’un glissement de terrain vise à anticiper sa rupture pour réduire le risque d’accident. Elle s'opère généralement en mesurant les déplacements du sol. Ce travail propose une nouvelle technique de mesure de déplacement de glissements, flexible et à bas coût, basée sur l’utilisation d’étiquettes d’identification radiofréquence (RFID). La méthode de localisation d’étiquettes par différence de phase à 866 MHz est explorée en conditions extérieures et sur de longues durées. Cette étude a montré une détérioration de la mesure causée par les variations de température, d’humidité, de neige et de végétation. Après application de corrections, la précision de mesure a été améliorée, passant de ±20 cm à ±1 cm en conditions extérieures courantes. Cette technique fonctionne également en conditions neigeuses et en présence d’herbes hautes, mais avec une incertitude de mesure plus élevée (±8 et 4 cm respectivement). Ces erreurs de mesure sont provoquées par des effets de propagation, d’interférence multitrajets, et de per-turbations à proximité des antennes. Un système de mesure en continu a été déployé sur le glissement de terrain de Pont-Bourquin, en Suisse, pendant cinq mois. Ce dispositif a validé l’efficacité de la technique en conditions réelles. De plus, la mesure résiste bien aux intempéries et le dispositif demande peu de maintenance, en comparaison avec les techniques conven-tionnelles (extensomètre, GPS, station totale).Deux méthodes de mesure complémentaires aux déplacements ont ensuite été étudiées. La méthode de corrélation de vibrations ambiantes est prometteuse, mais n’a pas encore été utilisée en surveillance opérationnelle. Une étude bibliographique souligne plusieurs verrous à lever, tels que la correction des variations saisonnières et journalières, l’augmentation de la résolution temporelle, et le choix des paramètres de traitement adaptés au site surveillé. La méthode qui consiste à inverser une fonction de transfert entre des données de pluie et de déplacements est ensuite étudiée. Une inversion haute résolution de cette fonction est proposée. Elle permet d’identifier des comportements hydrologiques complexes (ex : infiltration à deux vitesses sur le site de Pont-Bourquin) et de mesurer leur évolution. Les avancées de cette thèse vont permettre d’améliorer la surveillance opérationnelle tout en réduisant son coût, répondant aux besoins des collectivités territoriales. / Landslide early-warning systems are based primarily on monitoring the displacement of the landslide. This work develops a new technique for monitoring these displacements, using radio-frequency identification (RFID) passive tags and phase-based location technique. This technique is deployed for the first time outdoors and for several months. Outdoor conditions revealed strong environmental influences due to temperature variations, moisture, snow and vegetation. These can cause a ±20 cm measurement uncertainty over a year, which is too large for landslide monitoring applications. The correction of these effects allows reaching the accuracy of ±1 cm under normal conditions, ±8 cm with snow and ±4 cm with dense high grass. The remaining effects due to snow and grass are explained by the influence of this material on the direct propagation, on the multipath interferences and on the antennas. This measurement system has been deployed on the Pont-Bourquin landslide for five months. The results validate the technique for landslide monitoring applications. The technique also shows the operational benefits of robustness to bad weather, easy maintenance and low-cost material, compared to conventional techniques (extensometer, GPS, total station).This thesis then studies two complementary monitoring methods that had recently been shown to provide precursors to landslide rupture. First, ambient seismic noise interferometry is used to detect a drop of shear-wave velocity prior to a rupture. The seismic method was studied in the literature to identify what must be developed to use this technique in an operational early-warning system. It requires getting rid of daily and seasonal environmental influences, choosing the processing parameters appropriate to the monitored landslide, and improving the temporal resolution below one day while keeping a stable enough signal. The other method consists of inverting an impulse response between rainfall and displacement rate, with a high resolution. It can shed light on complex infiltration processes (e.g. infiltration with two different delays at Pont-Bourquin) and detect their abnormal evolution across time. These developments should improve landslide operational monitoring with a low budget.

By means of car2x communication technologies (car2x) driver warnings can be presented to drivers quite early. However, due to their early timing they could be misunderstood by drivers, distract or even disturb them. These problems arise if, at the moment of the warning, the safety–critical situation is not yet perceivable or critical. In order to examine, when drivers want to receive early warnings as a function of the situation criticality, a driving simulator study was conducted using the two early warning stages of a multi stage collision warning system (first stage: informing the driver; second stage: prewarning the driver). The optimum timing to activate these two early warning stages was derived by examining the drivers’ evaluation of these timings concerning their appropriateness and usefulness. As situational variation, drivers traveling at about 100 km/h were confronted with slow moving traffic either driving at 25 km/h or 50 km/h at the end of a rural road. In total, 24 participants were tested in a within-subjects design (12 female, 12 male; M = 26.6 years, SD = 7.2 years). For both stages, drivers preferred an earlier timing when approaching slow moving traffic traveling at 25 km/h (first stage: 447 m, second stage: 249 m ahead of the lead vehicle) compared to 50 km/h (first stage: 338 m, second stage: 186 m ahead of the lead vehicle). The drivers’ usefulness rating also varied with the timing, spanning a range of 8 s for driver-accepted timing variations and showed correspondence to the drivers’ appropriateness ratings. Based on these results and those of a previous study, a timing function for each of the two early warning stages depending on the speed difference between the safety–critical object and the host vehicle is presented. Indirectly, similar adaptations are already implemented in current collision warning systems, which use the time-to-collision to give drivers acute warnings in a later stage, when an immediate reaction of the driver may still prevent a collision. However, this study showed that drivers also favor this kind of adaptation for earlier warning stages (information and prewarning). Thus, adapting the timing according to the drivers’ preferences will contribute to a better acceptance of these collision warning systems.

The aim of this Master's thesis is to design a local flood warning system. The system consists of two basic types of units. The first unit is placed in the field usingsensors and evaluates the presence of water in an otherwise dry area. In the event of flooding sends a warning message using wireless technology. The second unit evaluates the warning messages and informs the personabout the situation via text messaging. Outdoor equipment is fullyautonomous and permanently placed in an outdoor environment. The system is designed based 8-bit microcontrollers. The main parametersinclude low power devices, mechanical durability and reliability.

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