This thesis covers the subject of economic integration in the East African setting. Following a review of custom union theory literature, a closer examination is made of the historical and economic background of the East African Common Market. A case is then made for Zambian entry into the Common Market with particular emphasis put on the effect it would have on the growth of G.D.P. (impact effect) and the development of industry. An empirical examination of the impact effect indicates that Tanzania will be the largest net gainer. A model is also presented that shows the effect of integration on the time horizon of industrial growth. Finally, the thesis concludes that there are net gains that can be enjoyed by all parties if integration is implemented in a rational manner and industrial planning is executed by an inter-country industrial planning board that would allocate industry among the member countries based on sound economic criteria. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

Text in English / This research study aimed to investigate and provide a comprehensive analysis of Zambia’s whole-of-government monitoring and evaluation system (WoGM&ES) in the context of national development plans (NDPs) within the broader agenda of good governance and poverty reduction. The study considered the period 1964 to 2021—a period covering all the seven (7) NDPs for Zambia since independence. The study focused on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) arrangements in the public sector as articulated in these NDPs and other government policies as well as structural operations. The research was centred on five (5) secondary objectives, namely a) justifying the theoretical significance of Zambia's WoGM&ES to improve public-sector good governance and poverty reduction agenda through the theory of change; b) presenting Zambia as a case study in terms of the results-based WoGM&ES; c) identifying gaps inhibiting the implementation of a results-focused WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector; d) establishing cornerstones necessary for building a results-based WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector; and e) proposing a new model for the enhanced WoGM&ES for Zambia’s public sector. Striving for functional M&E systems is a global phenomenon that requires commitment by all stakeholders and M&E of development interventions has become a vehicle that assists development agencies globally to demonstrate results to show to their stakeholders and beneficiaries. Thus, the starting point was to contend that M&E had increasingly become a useful tool towards good governance and that more institutions and governments had adopted it. The study then demonstrates how an M&E system, and, more so, a WoGM&ES, was crucial to implementing a thriving M&E culture for any country or organisation. In terms of scope, the study drew respondents from across government functionaries at national, line ministry, province and district level. Respondents from non-state institutions and M&E practitioners were also part of the study. The research was exploratory and investigatory and used the qualitative research approach to guide its design, data collection, collation and analysis, conclusion, recommendations and presentation. Further, purposive sampling was used to select respondents from these various institutions. Data collection benefited through the use of closed and open-ended questions from both secondary and primary sources. Nvivo software, text analysis as well as the analytical tool called LEADS comprised of a 5-point scoring scale were adopted and used for discussion and analysis of field data and information. The analytical instrument adopted to guide the research comprises of six components, namely: i) policy, ii) methodology, iii) organisation, iv) capacity, v) participation of actors outside government, and vi) the use of information from M&E. These components form the diagnostic checklist (analytical framework) used to assess the current status of Zambia’s WoGM&ES. In many ways, Zambia’s public sector system for M&E was found to be weak. At all levels—national, line ministry, provincial and district, M&E arrangements and practice were found to be poor. Both the supply side and the demand side of Zambia’s country level M&E system were unable to provide stakeholders with required and adequate information to inform critical development processes, such as policy-making, decision-making, planning, budgeting, resource allocation and advocacy. Gaps were identified in all the six components of the diagnostic checklist and improvements will be necessary as suggested and recommended under each one of them to make the WoGM&ES viable to meet the expectations of stakeholders. While the supply side of the system was relatively found to be well developed, the demand side was worse off. On the supply side, the study found that the policy and methodology components were fairly well developed. However, the component on the use of information by stakeholders, on the demand side, was found to be poorly developed. Further, various capacities in M&E were acknowledged as lacking across the WoGM&ES. The participation of actors outside government in strengthening the country system for M&E was also found to be weak, in many cases presented with lots of parallel and fragmented stand-alone systems. The policy environment in support of M&E strengthening and expansion was equally reported as one of the key areas that required attention from both political and technical powers that be. Although Zambia’s WoGM&ES was found to be weak in many aspects, it is noteworthy to mention that it has the necessary features for success. The study established that at national level, there were currently efforts to make M&E work in government. Such activities as creating a structure responsible for coordinating M&E across government, automating data management and information flows as well as developing a national M&E policy were reported to be ongoing efforts. To improve and enhance Zambia’s WoGM&ES, this study has proposed a model. Firstly, the new model recommends a structural shift in the manner M&E is coordinated at national level. The presidency was identified as the most appropriate location or entity to hold the responsibility of overseeing the WoGM&ES and in constantly as well as dedicatedly demanding for development results. The model is proposed as a transformational and long term strife and commitment by the current and successive governments. It was established that the current arrangement where the Ministry of National Development Planning (MNDP) was overseeing the WoGM&ES had led to operational gaps related to weak funding to M&E activities and high level policy clout. Generally, there is lack of influence (both political and technical) to spur an M&E transformational agenda for the country, let alone within the public sector. Therefore, the proposed model advances that the presidency will have the motivation and capacity to resolve these weaknesses a great deal. Specifically, the model suggests the establishment of an evaluation structure under the presidency to work as an apex institution to drive and champion the cause for a robust results-based WoGM&ES for the Zambian public sector. To formalise this arrangement, a well-defined M&E legislation will be needed. In addition, the proposed model has made salient recommendations on how to build and strengthen both the supply side and demand side of Zambia’s WoGM&ES. These two sides are considered vital for success of the country system for M&E and government and its stakeholders and partners will do well to invest in building and sustaining the supply and demand sides. In proposing a new architecture for Zambia’s WoGM&ES, the proposed model has acknowledged and incorporated the current positive practices and arrangements. Finally, the study has among others recommended that all government levels should create formal structures mandated to undertake M&E functions. These entities should be equipped with skilled staff in M&E, funding, technologies and relevant equipment. This research has also enriched literature on M&E and its relationship with good governance. Equally, a number of M&E issues such as political, technical and international best practices have been raised to prompt future research and development. / Development Studies / Ph.D. (Development Studies)

Thesis Presented for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy In the Faculty of Law, Commerce and Management University of Witwatersrand June 2016 / Zambia has had impressive economic performance in the last decade and half, however its growth remains unsustainable due to a number of factors that range from poor terms of trade to challenges in macroeconomic management. In addition, the country’s weak economic and political institutional framework characterised by insecure property rights and uncertainty in the policy environment pose further challenges to economic growth. Although the country has undertaken a number of economic reforms in recent years to spur growth, their impact has been modest because of weak institutional setups and capacity constraints. Notably, certain key policy reforms and programmes that are critical for enhancing economic performance in Zambia have not been implemented because of institutional and administrative weaknesses underpinned by policy inconsistencies and policy reversals. Against this background, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of formal institutions particularly property rights and political instability on economic growth in Zambia. It achieves this by extending Fedderke et al. (2011)’s time series on property rights and political instability measures on Zambia by constructing comparable indices that are later merged with the initial series. The merged series are then used to capture the institutional dimensions on economic output in Zambia from 1965 to 2010. The study uses in its methodology a PSS-F test to determine causality among variables of interest and later applies the VECM estimation procedure to determine cointegration and long-run relationships among the regressors. Despite the increasing role and influence of formal institutions in economic development, there have been relatively few empirical studies that have specifically examined their impacts at country level. This study is therefore an attempt to partially fill the void by throwing light on the impact of property rights and political instability on Zambia’s economic growth over the study period. The study findings have confirmed the hypothesis that there is a strong and positive relationship between property rights and the level of economic growth. The results have been validated using Zambia as a case study and hence the findings are consistent with empirical evidence and economic theory in new institutional economics (NIE). Noteworthy is the strong and positive effect of property rights on real GDP—clearly suggesting that potential investors will always take into account a country’s institutional environment before investing their resources. This means that a good performance in the rating of the property rights index on the scale between 0 and 100 leads to a corresponding strong economic performance in Zambia. By implication, a higher rating of the property rights index suggests a well secured regime of property rights. Conversely, a lower rating of the property rights index implies deterioration in the quality and enforcement of property rights in the country and hence adverse to economic growth. Thus, the findings are in line with several similar empirical works that conclude that formal economic institutions (property rights) are the fundamental cause of income differences and longrun growth between and among countries. As expected, our study also found a strong but negative relationship between political instability and economic performance. This means that perverse political institutions such as violent civil protests, political violence, attempted military coups, labour and/or industrial unrest in Zambia are a disincentive to economic growth as they discourage long-term investments. Investors are generally driven by perceptions, that is, the more politically stable an economy is assumed to be, the higher the chances of attracting foreign direct investments. Conversely, the stronger the negative perceptions about an economy the less likely will investors bring in their resources—hence the need for political stability. The findings are consistent and comparable to many other studies that found that political instability was significantly related to economic growth and that an increase in instability, other things being equal, always tends to lower real growth rate over time. The study also examined the impacts of selected macroeconomic policy variables namely foreign direct investments (FDI), credit to the private sector (CRDTP), trade openness (TROP), capital formation (CALARAT) and human capital (ENROLL) on Zambia’s real GDP and found that they had a strong feedback effect on growth performance. In terms of policy implications, the study recommends that authorities should invest in efforts that strengthen the regime of property rights and the rule of law for strong economic performance in Zambia. More specifically, the authorities should respect and enforce private property rights through impartial courts of law to instil confidence in the investor community. In addition, the government should promote social dialogue and foster an environment of industrial harmony to avoid labour-related unrest and political conflicts (political instability) that have a potential to hurt the business environment by scaring off would-be investors. / MB2016

The study also provides an overview of the impact of privatisation on human rights. To accomplish this objective, case studies of Zambia were undertaken within the concept of the social and economic impacts, seeking to answer six basic research questions posed: What were the objectives of the Zambian privatization programme? Was the privatization process executed according to the provisions of the Zambian Privatization Act of 1992 and 1996? How is the outcome of the privatization process perceived by Zambians, success or failure, what are some of the social and economic consequences of privatisation programme? What are the human rights implications of the privatization programme undertaken in Zambia? Mainly qualitative data collecting methods, involving semi-structured interviews, document analyses and direct observations of activities of the privatised companies were employed, to answer these questions. The study examines Zambia's background to privatisation, posits implications of privatisation on the realization of human rights, looks at the case study of privatisation of the ZCCM and the outcomes of privatisation. The study has been influenced by a number of conflicting divestiture evaluation outcomes: for some the Zambian privatization process represents a model programme, the 'most successful in Africa', which serves as an example for other developing African countries to emulate whilst for others, it is a "deeply flawed experience", resulting in negative social and economic consequences which permitted the withdrawal of the provision of social services, massive human rights violations and job losses. Based on evidence from these outcomes, the principal findings from the study suggest that Zambia's privatisation programme has had both negative and positive results. In reviewing the outcomes of the privatisation process, the intent is neither to justify nor reject privatisation, but rather, on the basis of past experience, to highlight key elements of outright failures and success and provide recommendations for future use. / Thesis (LL.M.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2006.

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study examines whether there is a solution to the challenges being faced in the capital markets in Zambia. Literature on how other countries have overcome these challenges is reviewed to determine whether there is a solution to these challenges. The study also tests for the market efficiency of the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LuSE). The Random Walk Model is used to test for weak form efficiency using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test. The ADF Test is conducted for the period May 1995 to October 2008 using individual stocks, depending on the date the stock was listed on the LuSE. The result of this study shows that there is a solution to some of the challenges being faced in the capital markets in Zambia. The results also show that the LuSE market is a weak form of efficiency. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die vraag of daar ʼn oplossing is vir die uitdagings waardeur die kapitaalmarkte in Zambië in die gesig gestaar word. Literatuur oor hoe ander lande hierdie uitdagings te bowe gekom het, word nagegaan om te bepaal of daar ʼn oplossing is vir dié uitdagings. Die studie toets voorts die markdoeltreffendheid van die Lusaka-aandelebeurs (LuSE). Die stogastiese bewegingsteorie word gebruik om met behulp van die Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF)-toets vir swak vormdoeltreffendheid te toets. Die ADF-toets is met behulp van individuele effekte gedurende die tydperk Mei 1995 tot Oktober 2008 uitgevoer, na gelang van die datum waarop die effek op die LuSE genoteer is. Die slotsom waartoe hierdie studie kom, is dat daar ʼn oplossing is vir sommige van die uitdagings waarvoor die kapitaalmarkte in Zambië te staan kom. Die resultate toon ook dat die LuSE-mark swak is wat betref vormdoeltreffendheid.

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Assignment (MPhil)--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: While admitting that the ambitious privatization programme embarked on from 1991 to date in Zambia has contributed to unemployment largely due to the closure of privatized parastatal companies, post-privatization business conduct of investors need analyzing in order to understand why the expected economic growth and job creation in the country has never taken place. In this article the role the local political leadership, globalization and the tendency towards misplaced policy formulation play in driving the state of under development in Zambia will be analysed. The inherent weaknesses in the New Partnership for Africa’s Development which may further deny poor African countries such as Zambia, the benefits of a well timed and supported programme to provide home grown solutions for the continent’s numerous developmental problems will also be looked at. The paper will contribute towards resolving Zambia’s problems by suggesting the need to formulate policies which create a positive interface between local policies adopted to support and attract investment, and the motives driving the global players to invest in particular countries. In particular this paper focuses on the absence of good investment policy formulation, and consequently, the absence of the full economic benefit which should be derived by the economy for hosting multinational business enterprises such as the Shoprite Checkers Group. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ambisieuse privatiserings program wat sedert 1991 in Zambië gevolg word, het hoofsaaklik as gevolg van die sluiting van geprivatiseerde semistaatsmaatskappye tot werkloosheid bygedra. Die sake-optrede van beleggers ná privatisering moet egter ontleed word ten einde te verstaan waarom die verwagte ekonomiese groei en werkskepping nooit in hierdie land plaasgevind het nie. In hierdie artikel sal die rol wat die plaaslike politieke leierskap, globalisering en die neiging na misplaaste beleidsformulering in onderontwikkeling in Zambië speel, ondersoek word. Die inherente tekortkominge in die Nuwe Vennootskap vir Afrika-ontwikkeling wat arm Afrikalande soos Zambië moontlik die voordele van ’n geleë en ondersteunde program om eie oplossings vir die kontinent se veelvuldige ontwikkelingsprobleme te bied, ontsê, sal ook onder die loep geneem word. Hierdie artikel sal ter oplossing van Zambië se probleme voorstel dat beleid geformuleer word wat ’n positiewe raakvlak bied tussen plaaslike beleid wat aangeneem is om belegging te lok en te ondersteun, en die beweegredes agter wêreldrolspelers se besluite om in spesifieke lande te belê. Hierdie artikel fokus veral op die afwesigheid van die formulering van goeie beleggingsbeleid en die gevolglike afwesigheid van die volle voordeel wat die ekonomie daaruit kan put om as gasheer vir multinasionale sake-ondernemigs soos die Shoprite Checkers Groep op te tree.

Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / Numerous theories have been constructed to provide reasons for economic growth differences between countries. As data became more readily available, cross-country empirical studies identified a set of variables that contributed to economic growth, including variables such as the investment in human and physical capital.

This thesis investigates policy formulation and implementation processes in Zambia. A number of issues emerge with respect to the weaknesses of the system and how policy decisions worsened Zambia's economic performance instead of improving it. The Kaunda era policies of nationalization had an adverse impact on productivity of industries as well as affecting the resource flow from donors and business houses. On the other hand President Chiluba's reforms in the 1990s have had both positive and negative impacts on the people of Zambia. The rapid privatization and liberalization affected employment levels thereby worsening the poverty levels. Further, the liberalization brought in stiff competition from other countries forcing most manufacturing companies to close down. The policy environment based on the Bretton Woods Institutions seems not to be working as result of not taking into account the local Zambian situation. On the other hand, there were positive macroeconomic developments such as growth in GDP, lowering of inflation and stabilizing of exchange rates as from 1996. This has however not improved the living standards of the people. In Zambia, the shifts back and forth between strong and weak planning institutions have negatively affected policy development and implementation. There has been uncoordinated policy development; as a result, some policies in the major sectors are contradictory while in other cases policies are not linked to the resource envelope, making them un-implementable. Secondly, the institutional framework for policy development is not effective. There is generally lack of coordination among ministries, provinces and other stakeholders in planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of development programmes. This thesis urges that the improving planning capacities at the national, provincial and district levels should improve the processes of policy development and implementation in Zambia, which will in turn help to reduce poverty. Further, the districts should be the centre for the bottom-up process. In order to carryout this responsibility, efforts should be made to improve their capacities. As for the top-down process, the Sector Advisory Groups should continue to participate in the planning, monitoring and evaluation so as to contribute to policy formulation and implementation. These should be coordinated by the National Development Coordinating Committee (NDCC) through a Planning Bureau. / Development Studies / D. Litt. et Phil. (Development Studies)

Even though the West, or Global North, initiates extensive development policymaking and project activity on the African continent, this study argues that one source of major frustration between different parties entrusted to do the work arises from cognitive differences in their worldviews. These differences affect people's actions and have theological ramifications involving how we all understand meaning and reality. The study employs a case method analyzed through the lens of Alfred Schutz's sociology of knowledge theories and augmented by insights from African scholars to look at basic perceptual differences between Zambians and expatriates working on the Copperbelt Province's mines. After exploring how participants in the study interpreted various experiences, this study concludes that Zambians and expatriates were essentially living in "parallel universes" of meaning regardless of their apparently shared activities and objectives. The study further argues that viewpoints expressed by Zambian participants can be extrapolated into powerful lessons for members of civil society who are concerned about international development and the environment. Such teaching elements could especially help reshape how Americans and other Westerners understand ourselves in relation to physical creation and the cosmos as well as to those from radically different cultures. Lessons learned from the Zambian perspective could also help reinvigorate Western theological thinking, providing much needed critiques of discourses that currently dominate international development policymaking and planning and that determine value principally according to economic strategies and fulfillment of efficient, measurable objectives. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2007.