Our interest in this thesis is first to combine the different measurement techniques for operational risk in financial companies, and we highlight more and more the consequences of estimation risk which is treated as a particular part of operational risk. In the first part, we will present a full overview of operational risk, from the regulatory laws and regulations to the associated mathematical and actuarial concepts as well as a numerical application regarding the Advanced Measurement Approach, like Loss Distribution to calculate the capital requirement, then applying the Extreme Value Theory. We conclude this first part by setting a scaling technique based on (OLS) enabling us to normalize our external data to a local Lebanese Bank. On the second part, we feature estimation risk by first measuring the error induced on the SCR by the estimation error of the parameters, to having an alternative yield curve estimation and finishing by calling attention to the reflections on assumptions of the calculation instead of focusing on the so called hypothesis "consistent with market values", would be more appropriate and effective than to complicate models and generate additional errors and instability. Chapters in this part illustrate the estimation risk in its different aspects which is a part of operational risk, highlighting as so the attention that should be given in treating our models

Submitted by Karina Cyganczuk Goes (karinagoes@uol.com.br) on 2014-06-06T20:34:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Estrutura de Capital e CoCos sob a otica de Basileia III - Um estudo empirico sobre o Brasil.pdf: 699008 bytes, checksum: 8646f039c659f7f9e7a793f98d9b1bf5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-08-19T14:19:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Estrutura de Capital e CoCos sob a otica de Basileia III - Um estudo empirico sobre o Brasil.pdf: 699008 bytes, checksum: 8646f039c659f7f9e7a793f98d9b1bf5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-19T16:15:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Estrutura de Capital e CoCos sob a otica de Basileia III - Um estudo empirico sobre o Brasil.pdf: 699008 bytes, checksum: 8646f039c659f7f9e7a793f98d9b1bf5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-07 / It is a fact that banks worldwide maintain excess regulatory capital, either to minimize cost of recapitalization or to mitigate risks of financial difficulties. But only after the 2007/2008 crisis, the quality of that excess capital has been important to regulators, who proposed a new capital structure in the Basel III agreement, creating new hybrid bonds, the contingent convertible, whose main objective is to recapitalize the bank automatically in times of financial difficulties. In this context, we analyzed the 10 largest banks in Brazil in total assets, comparing the structure of each bank with straight bond, against the same structure with contingent convertible under the Basel III rules and without regulations or when they are fragile. The evidence suggests that, by the model, Brazilian banks were better capitalized with contingent convertible, than straight bond under Basel III rules, but in unregulated environments or where they are fragile, contingent convertibles induce increased risk and may lead to new financial crisis. / É fato, que os bancos do mundo inteiro mantêm excesso de capital regulatório, seja para minimizar custos de recapitalização, seja para mitigar riscos de dificuldades financeiras. Mas somente depois da crise de 2007/2008, a qualidade desse capital em excesso, passou a ganhar importância entre os órgãos reguladores, que propuseram uma nova estrutura de capital no Acordo de Basiléia III, criando novos instrumentos híbridos de capital e dívidas, os contingentes conversíveis, cujo principal objetivo é, recapitalizar o banco automaticamente em momentos de dificuldades financeiras. Neste contexto, analisamos os 10 maiores bancos do Brasil, em total de ativos, comparando a estrutura de cada banco com dívidas subordinadas, contra a mesma estrutura com contingentes conversíveis, sob as regra de Basiléia III e, em ambientes sem regulamentações ou quando estas são frágeis. As evidências sugerem que, segundo o modelo utilizado, os bancos brasileiros estariam mais bem capitalizados com contingentes conversíveis, do que com dívidas subordinadas sob as regras de Basiléia III, mas em ambientes sem regulamentação ou quando estas são frágeis, os contingentes conversíveis induzem o aumento de riscos, podendo levar a novas crises financeiras.

Submitted by Ronaldo Medrado Helpe (ronaldo.helpe@gmail.com) on 2018-01-05T14:28:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Financas_AFD-Helpe-projeto_vFinal.pdf: 1604607 bytes, checksum: 1cdf4c588e2dd515324016561da5baa4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Mayara Costa de Sousa (mayara.sousa@fgv.br) on 2018-01-10T23:17:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Financas_AFD-Helpe-projeto_vFinal.pdf: 1604607 bytes, checksum: 1cdf4c588e2dd515324016561da5baa4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-11T13:40:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Financas_AFD-Helpe-projeto_vFinal.pdf: 1604607 bytes, checksum: 1cdf4c588e2dd515324016561da5baa4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-11 / A iminência da entrada em vigor das regras estabelecidas pelo acordo da Basileia III, motivado pela crise do subprime em 2009, desperta preocupação ao redor do mundo, inspirando inúmeros estudos que tentam antecipar potenciais efeitos desta regulamentação sobre a economia (BERROSPIDE e EDGE, 2010). O Brasil vive uma das piores recessões de sua história e as provisões para créditos ruins nos balanços dos bancos se avolumam, gerando um aumento do estoque de créditos tributários. Em linha com diversos estudos já realizados, este trabalho explorou efeitos decorrentes da implantação do acordo da Basileia III em relação ao capital mínimo regulatório exigido, com o diferencial de dar ênfase ao impacto da exclusão dos créditos tributários da base de capital dos bancos. O objetivo foi identificar se a restrição de capital trazida por tais deduções, no âmbito do novo acordo, poderia impactar o volume de créditos concedidos pelos bancos, impactando, portanto, o processo de recuperação econômica do Brasil. Verificou-se, através de uma pesquisa exploratória, que abordou uma amostra relevante de 38 bancos, que os avanços dos ajustes prudenciais de créditos tributários terão alto impacto sobre a base de capital das instituições financeiras. Tais deduções, geraram impactos em 28 bancos da amostra, chegando a representar mais de 100% da necessidade agregada de capital principal e 59% da necessidade agregada de capital nível 1 dos bancos analisados. Do ponto de vista de influência das deduções dos créditos tributários sobre as carteiras de crédito dos bancos, foi possível constatar que o impacto tende a ser pequeno, chegando a 1,5% de redução sobre o total da carteira de crédito dos bancos analisados. Essa conclusão, apesar de parecer incoerente à primeira vista, justifica-se pela capacidade dos bancos em atrair mais capital, em função de suas rentabilidades acima do custo de capital próprio. Essa análise nos permitiu confirmar a relevância dos créditos tributários das instituições financeiras sobre suas políticas de gestão de capital e verificar que as deduções de créditos tributários, apesar de representar restrições importantes de capital, não deverão impactar de forma relevante o crescimento das carteiras de crédito no sistema financeiro brasileiro. / The imminence of fully application of the rules established by Basel III, motivated by the subprime crisis in 2009, arouses concern around the world, motivating several papers trying to anticipate potential effects of this regulation (BERROSPIDE e EDGE, 2010). Brazil is facing one of the worst recessions in its history and the increase in provisions for bad credits, led to an increase in tax credits in the banks' balance sheets in Brazil. Aligned with several studies, this research explored the effects arising from the implementation of Basel III agreement in relation to minimum regulatory capital, with the differential of emphasizing the impact of the exclusion of tax credits from the capital base of banks. The objective was to identify if the restriction of capital brought by Tax Credits under the new agreement could impact the volume of credits granted by the banks, thus impacting the process of economic recovery in Brazil. It was verified through a relevant sample of 38 banks that tax credits will have a high impact on the banks' capital base. These deductions generated impacts on 28 sample banks, accounting for more than 100% of the aggregate principal capital requirement and 59% of the aggregate capital requirement of the banks analyzed. From the point of view of the influence of tax credit deductions on banks' credit portfolios, it was possible to verify that the impact tends to be small, reaching a reduction of 1.5% on the total loan portfolio of the banks analyzed. This conclusion, despite seeming at first glance to be inconsistent, is justified by the ability of banks to attract more capital, due to their profitability above the cost of equity. This analysis allowed us to confirm the relevance of tax credits of financial institutions on their capital management policies and to verify that deductions of tax credits, despite representing significant capital constraints, should not have a significant impact on the growth of credit portfolios in Brazil.

Comme un déterminant de la survie d'une banque durant la crise financière de 2007/2008, la liquidité dans le secteur bancaire a depuis récemment représenté un défi pour les communautés financières et universitaires. Les trois articles présentés dans cette thèse portent sur les deux principales facettes de la liquidité dans le secteur bancaire: la détention d'actifs liquides (à savoir, la trésorerie et les ressources assimilées) et le processus de création de la liquidité dans les banques utilisé pour financer des prêts. Comme on le verra dans les articles, ces deux aspects de la liquidité peuvent être considérés comme les deux faces d'une même pièce. Je reconnais que la liquidité dans le secteur bancaire est liée à la création monétaire; cependant, cette thèse se concentre sur les deux précités aspects de la liquidité. Tout d'abord, cette introduction présente comment le concept de la liquidité a évolué dans la pensée économique dominante. La seconde partie considère le renouveau de la détention de cash qui a été observée depuis la crise financière de 2007/2008 dans le secteur bancaire. La troisième section examine les propriétés de liquidité. La quatrième section explore ce que nous ne savons pas sur la liquidité. La cinquième section identifie et sélectionne trois problèmes fondamentaux relatifs à liquidité et qui sont analysés dans les trois articles présentés dans thèse. La sixième et dernière section présente la méthodologie utilisée dans les trois articles pour répondre à ces questions. Chapitre 1 : “Why do banks hold cash ?". La détention de cash et assimilé cash par les banques détiennent est devenue un enjeu majeur depuis la crise financière de 2008 qui a démontré que la trésorerie retenue est un déterminant majeur dans les chances de survie des banques. Cet article examine les déterminants de la détention de cash banque en utilisant des données internationales pour la période 1981-2014. Sur la base d'un grand échantillon, nous documentons une augmentation séculaire de la détention de cash par les banques pendant une période de 35 ans. Nous apportons la preuve que la nature optimale dynamique de la détention de cash est rejetée dans le secteur bancaire. Ces résultats contrastent avec le secteur non bancaire, où la nature optimale dynamique de trésorerie est observée. Chapitre 2: “Does an increase in capital negatively impact banking liquidity creation?”. A partir d'un ensemble de données composé d'un panel de 940 banques cotées des pays européens, américains et asiatiques, cet article documente l'évolution de la création de la liquidité bancaire au cours d'une période de 35 ans (1981-2014). La preuve empirique confirme que les niveaux de risque et de capital jouent un rôle significatif et négatif dans la création de liquidité par les banques. Dans l'ensemble, les effets négatifs de l’augmentation de capital sur la création de la liquidité bancaire sont plus importants que les effets positifs sur la gestion du risque correspondant, ce qui suggère que les exigences de fonds propres imposées pour soutenir la stabilité financière affectent négativement la création de liquidités. Ces résultats ont de larges implications pour les régulateurs bancaires. Chapitre 3: “Positive effects of Basel III on banking liquidity creation”. Ce document évalue l'effet du cadre réglementaire de Bâle III sur la création de liquidité bancaire. Les résultats sont basés sur un ensemble de données de panel de banques américaines qui représentent environ 60% des prêts et dépôts américains sur une période de 7 ans (2009-2015), en plus de différence dans la différence et les méthodes de survie standard. Tous les composants de Bâle III pris ensemble, il existe des preuves empiriques que Bâle III a un effet positif sur la création de liquidité bancaire sur le marché américain, en particulier pour les grandes banques. Ces résultats ont de larges implications pour les régulateurs bancaires. / As one determinant of a bank’s survival during the financial crisis of 2007-2008, liquidity in the banking sector presents a challenge for the financial and academic communities and has recently become a central point of interest. The three articles presented in this thesis focus on the two main facets of liquidity in the banking sector: the holding of liquid assets (i.e., cash and assimilated resources) and the process of liquidity-creation in banks used to fund loans. As will be discussed in the articles, these two aspects of liquidity can be viewed as two sides of the same coin. I acknowledge that liquidity in banking is linked to the creation of money; however, this thesis focuses on the aforementioned two aspects of liquidity. First, this section presents how ideas about liquidity in the banking sector have evolved in mainstream economic thought. Second, it considers the revival of cash-holding that has been observed since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Third, it discusses the properties of liquidity. Fourth, it explores what we do not know about liquidity. Fifth, it identifies the fundamental issues analyzed in the three articles. Finally, it presents the methodology used in the articles to address these issues. Chapter1: “Why do banks hold cash ?”. This paper investigates the determinants of bank cash holding by using international data for the period 1981-2014. The results do not seem to provide support for the substitutability hypothesis regarding the substitutive relation between cash and debt levels. Further, using the GMM-system estimation method, we find no support for the dynamic optimal cash model, suggesting that cash management in the banking sector is bounded by number of constraints that make it difficult for the agents to optimize their utility. Chapter 2: “Does an increase in capital negatively impact banking liquidity creation?”. From a dataset composed of a panel of 940 listed banks based in European, American and Asian countries, this paper documents the evolution of bank liquidity creation over a 35-year period (1981-2014). The empirical evidence confirms that risk and equity levels play a significant and negative role. Overall, the negative effects of equity increases on bank liquidity creation are more significant than corresponding positive effects on risk management, suggesting that capital requirements imposed to support financial stability negatively affect liquidity creation. These findings have broad implications for policymakers. Chapter 3: “Positive effects of Basel III on banking liquidity creation”. This paper estimates the effect of the Basel III regulatory framework on banking liquidity creation. The results are based on a panel data set of U.S. banks that represent approximately 60% of U.S. loans and deposits over a 7-year period (from 2009 to 2015) in addition to difference-in-difference and standard survival methods. All components of Basel III taken together, there is empirical evidence that Basel III has a positive effect on banking liquidity creation in the US market in particular for major banks. These findings have broad implications for policy makers.

This thesis assesses UK banking liquidity regulation and supervision and the Basel liquidity requirements, and models banks' liquidity risk. The study reveals that the FSA's risk-assessment framework before 2008 was too general without specifically considering banks' liquidity risk (as well as its failures on Northern Rock). The study also lists the limitations of the FSA's banking liquidity regimes before 2008. The thesis reviews whether the FSA's new liquidity regimes after 2008 would have coped with UK banks' liquidity risks if they have been applied properly. The fundamental changes in the FSA's liquidity supervision reflect three considerations. First, it introduces a systemic control requirement by measuring individual fifirm's liquidity risk with a market-wide stress or combination of idiosyncratic and market-wide stresses. Second, it emphasizes the monitoring of business model risks and the capability of senior managers. Third, it allows both internal and external managers to access more information by increasing the liquidity reporting frequencies. The thesis also comments on the Basel Liquidity Principles of 2008 and the two Liquidity Standards. The Principles of 2008 represents a substantial revision of the Principles of 2000 and reflect the lessons of the fifinancial market turmoil since 2007. The study argues that the implementation of the sound principles by banks and supervisors should be fexible, but also need to be consistent to make sure they understand banks' liquidity positions quite well. The study also explains the composition of the Basel liquidity ratios as well as the side effect of Basel liquidity standards; for example, it will reshape interbank deposit markets and bond markets as a result of the increase in demand for `liquid assets' and `stable funding'. This thesis uses quantitative balance sheet liquidity analysis, based upon modified versions of the BCBS (2010b) and Moody's (2001) models, to estimate eight UK banks' short and long-term liquidity positions from 2005 to 2010 respectively. The study shows that only Barclays Bank remained liquid on a short-term basis throughout the sample period (2005-2010); while the HSBC Bank also proved liquid on a short-term basis, although not in 2008 and 2010. On a long-term basis, RBS has remained liquid since 2008 after receiving government support; while Santander UK also proved liquid, except in 2009. The other banks,especially Natwest, are shown to have faced challenging conditions, on both a short-term and long-term basis, over the sample period. This thesis also uses the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model to forecast UK banks' liquidity risk. Based on annual data over the period 1997 to 2010, the study predicts that by the end of 2011, the (102) UK banks' average CFaR at the 95% confidence level will be -£5.76 billion, Barclays Bank's (Barclays') CFaR will be -£0.34 billion, the Royal Bank of Scotland's (RBS's) CFaR will be -£40.29 billion, HSBC Bank's (HSBC's) CFaR will be £0.67 billion, Lloyds TSB Bank's (Lloyds TSB's) CFaR will be -£4.90 billion, National Westminister Bank's (Natwest's) CFaR will be -£10.38 billion, and Nationwide Building Society's (Nationwide's) CFaR will be -£0.72 billion. Moreover, it is clear that Lloyds TSB and Natwest are associated with the largest risk, according to the biggest percentage difference between downside cash flow and expected cash flow (3600% and 816% respectively). Since I summarize a bank's liquidity risk exposure in a single number (CFaR), which is the maximum shortfall given the targeted probability level, it can be directly compared to the bank's risk tolerance and used to guide corporate risk management decisions. Finally, this thesis estimates the long-term United Kingdom economic impact of the Basel III capital and liquidity requirements. Using quarterly data over the period 1997:q1 to 2010:q2, the study employs a non-linear-in-factor probit model to show increases in bank capital and liquidity would reduce the probability of a bank crisis significantly. The study estimates the long-run cost of the Basel III requirements with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which shows holding higher capital and liquidity would reduce output by a small amount but increase bank profitability in the long run. The maximum temporary net benefit and permanent net benefit is shown to be 1.284% and 35.484% of pre-crisis GDP respectively when the tangible common equity ratio stays at 10%. Assuming all UK banks also meet the Basel III long-term liquidity requirements, the temporary net benefit and permanent net benefit will be 0.347% and 14.318% of pre-crisis GDP respectively. Therefore, the results suggest that, in terms of the impact on output, there is considerable room to further tighten capital and liquidity requirements, while still providing positive effects for the United Kingdom economy.

巴塞爾銀行監督委員會(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, BCBS) 於2010年發布巴塞爾資本協定三。為強化銀行流動性風險管理，新增兩項流動性風險量化衡量指標：流動性覆蓋比率(Liquidity Coverage Ratio, LCR)以及淨穩定資金比率(Net Stable Funding Ratio, NSFR)。我國於2015年開始將流動性覆蓋比率納入監管要求，亦將於2018年開始導入淨穩定資金比率。然而在提高銀行風險控管及標準的同時，銀行需考量其股東權益報酬。新規範的實施使銀行需要進行調整以符合法規，過往鮮少有研究針對本國銀行探討其資產配置調整與結構調整。本研究除探討個案銀行如何在巴塞爾資本協定三框架下調整其資產負債配置與結構，更進一步探討其各項調整對銀行之獲利能力以及各項法定比率之影響，希望能幫助銀行在未來調整結構之前能更了解其決策所帶來之影響。 本研究發現，在不提高資產負債表規模的情況下，可以透過銀行結構調整達到巴塞爾資本協定三於2019年之標準，同時提高銀行獲利能力；在適度提高資產負債表規模的情況之下，其獲利能力高於不提高資產負債表規模之情況。此外，本研究針對不同情境探討銀行應如何調整資產負債配置與銀行結構。風險趨避情境相較於風險偏好下，應在存放款方面，吸收更多長天期之存款、降低長期放款占比；資產配置方面則應增加政府公債占比。由於巴塞爾資本協定三採階段性實施，本研究針對個案銀行2015到2019 年之資產負債配置與銀行結構做研究，發現個案銀行隨著法規越趨嚴格，應提高公司債占比並同時降低權益類等相對風險較高之資產占比；另一方面為達到淨穩定資金比率要求，銀行應提高其長期存款占比。最後，本研究針對各項結構與資產負債配置調整做更深入的分析，探討其對於各項指標之敏感度，以實際的量化數字表示每項變動的影響，以利銀行在做決策時更了解其決策之利與弊。 / Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) released Basel III in 2010. In order to ensure the maintenance and stability of funding and liquidity profiles of banks’ balance sheets, two liquidity standards, Liquidity Coverage Ratio(LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio(NSFR), were introduced in Basel III. To in line with international norm, Taiwan government plans to implement LCR and NSFR in 2015 and 2018 respectively. However, there is a trade-off between return and risk. With the implement of new law, how to adjust banks’ asset allocation becomes a critical issue. In this study, we focus on business structure and ways to adjust A bank’s asset allocation. We found that A bank can meet government’s requirements and increase it’s return on equity without increasing balance sheet size by adjusting business structure; In the situation where balance sheet size is increased, A bank can meet the requirements with higher return on equity than where the balance sheet size isn’t increased. In three different scenarios: risk seeking, risk neutral and risk aversion, we found that A bank should increase more long-term deposits and decrease long-term loans in risk aversion scenario than in risk seeking scenario. In risk aversion scenario, A bank should also hold more government bonds than in risk seeking scenario. From 2015 to 2019, the requirements become stricter and stricter, A bank should hold more corporate bonds and less securities. At the same time, A bank should increase more long-term deposits to meet the NSFR requirement. The research also shows how business structure and asset allocation changes can affect A bank’s related required ratio and return on equity. Our findings can help A bank makes more precise decision by knowing actual quantitative influence before they implement the new policies.

The master thesis deals with the issue of the development of regulation and supervision of the financial systems in the US and the EU. The thesis is primarily focused on the regulatory and supervisory bodies and the area of capital adequacy in both, the US and the EU and changes in these areas in response to the global financial crisis. In order to meet the theses objectives the thesis is divided into three chapters, which are logically and chronologically connected. The first chapter covers the period before the financial crisis. This chapter analyzes American and European system of regulation and supervision in the period before the crisis, as well as Basel I and Basel II and the reaction of the US and the EU on these agreements. The second chapter focuses on the period of the financial crisis. Chapter analyzes the causes that led to this crisis and also its actual progress. Next section of the second chapter analyzes the US and the EU response to the crisis and the steps which the US and the EU have taken in an effort to save their financial systems. The last chapter covers the post-crisis period. This chapter is devoted mainly to the new concept Basel III and its implementation in the US and the EU. The conclusion of the thesis will be devoted to an overall summary and to comparison of obtained information.

A partir d’une analyse du défaut des banques et de la régulation au travers des notations de crédits (et des agences de notation), des modèles portant sur les CDS, de Bâle III et du capital insurance, nous trouvons que les spécificités des CDS en font un bon candidat pour prévoir (et idéalement empêcher) les défauts potentiels des banques. En effet, grâce aux propriétés (financières et économiques) des CDS, ainsi qu’aux résultats d’études empiriques, nous montrons qu’ils reflètent correctement le comportement des risques des banques et qu’ils ont capté les changements informationnels plus rapidement que les notations de crédits qui sont restées relativement constantes durant 2007 et 2008.Ainsi, en utilisant un déclencheur ad hoc basé sur les CDS et l’action appropriée si le déclencheur venait à s’activer, nous pourrions empêcher le défaut d’une banque. Et la compréhension du mécanisme afférent au capital contingent est d’un grand intérêt pour atteindre cet objectif qui optimise le monitoring mis en oeuvre par les banques et les régulateurs. / Based on an analysis of the default of the banks and regulation through credit ratings (and rating agencies), CDS models, Basel III, bail-In and capital insurance, we find that the characteristics of CDS make them a good candidate to forecast (and ideally prevent) the potential defaults of the banks. Indeed, thanks to the economics of CDS and results of empirical studies, we show that they are a good proxy of bank risks and that they did capture information changes more quickly than the credit ratings which remained relatively constant during 2007 and 2008.So, using a specific trigger based on CDS and the appropriate action, should the trigger be activated, we could prevent the default of a bank. And the understanding of contingent capital mechanism is of great interest to reach this objective which optimizes the monitoring implemented by banks as well as regulators.

Questa tesi analizza un tema fondamentale e nello stesso tempo controverso: il rischio di liquidità che, dopo la crisi del 2007-2008, sta diventato sempre più importante. Le banche centrali forniscono la liquidità necessaria per ridurre la probabilità di un collasso del sistema finanziario, utilizzando una vasta gamma di strumenti. La tesi in oggetto propone un’analisi della politica quantitativa della Banca Centrale Europea: un’analisi in cui sono state considerate le condizioni di mercato e la loro coerenza con la domanda di liquidità da parte del sistema bancario. Il quadro normativo internazionale Basilea III ha introdotto nuove regole per la gestione del rischio di liquidità. Questo lavoro presenta una serie di azioni che possono essere applicate per migliorare le capacità di gestione del rischio di liquidità della banca stessa. Applicando al processo decisionale il metodo della simulazione, è stata utilizzata un'analisi di sensitività per determinare l'impatto delle decisioni manageriali sull’indice di liquidità. Questa tesi mette in evidenza l'importanza del rischio di liquidità e presenta l'analisi empirica che ha permesso l'indagine della relazione che intercorre tra il nuovo requisito introdotto dal Basilea in materia di liquidità (NSFR) e la stabilità del sistema bancario, i fattori macroeconomici e dei mercati finanziari, e le operazioni della banca centrale. / This thesis focuses on a crucial and controversial issue - liquidity risk. After the 2007-2008 crisis it became increasingly important. The Central Banks provide required liquidity to minimise the probability of a financial system meltdown by using a wide array of instruments. This thesis proposes an analyses of the European Central Bank quantitative policy, market conditions in which these measures have been taken, and their consistency with the demand for liquidity by the banking system. The Basel III international regulatory framework introduced new liquidity regulations for managing liquidity risk. This study introduces a number of actions that can be performed to improve a bank’s liquidity risk management capabilities. By applying the simulation-based approach to decision making, a sensitivity analysis was used to determine the impact of managerial rulings on liquidity ratio. The present work highlights the importance of the liquidity risk and presents the empirical analysis that allowed the exploration of the relationship between the Basel’s new liquidity requirement (NSFR) and banking stability, macroeconomic and financial markets factors, and central bank operations.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-03T18:33:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo_de_Oliveira_Cardoso.pdf: 1815960 bytes, checksum: 47794692be2e0d4e60f97e2abafffbd7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-08 / This Objective of this study is to investigate challenges in the determination of the Required Referential Net Equity, of financial institutions, with the entry into force of the new Central Bank regulations that meet the recommendations of the Committee on Banking Supervision Basel III. The application of standards subject to the Resolution 3897/2010 revoked by Resolution 4194/2013 will address the implementation and management of liquidity risk, the new methodology of calculating the Reference Equity and the introduction of additional core capital, among other issues. Changes brought by the withdrawal of tax credits for purposes of computing the capital and changes in the form of acceptance of subordinated debt will have a strong impact on all financial institutions, with repercussions on the levels of capitalization and leverage. In this Risk management in banking and capital management with emphasis on the determination of the reference net equity required. The results suggest the need to strengthen the management of new sources of capital and line-of-business and customers, as circular 3644, especially for the average banks / O objetivo desse estudo ?? investigar as principais mudan??as na determina????o do Patrim??nio de Refer??ncia Exigido das institui????es financeiras, com a entrada em vigor das novas regulamenta????es do Banco Central, que atendem as recomenda????es do Comit?? de Supervis??o Banc??ria de Basileia III. A aplica????o das normas que s??o objeto da Resolu????o 3897/2010 revogada pela Resolu????o 4194/2013 tratar??o da implementa????o e do gerenciamento do risco de liquidez e Cr??dito, da nova metodologia de apura????o do patrim??nio de refer??ncia e da introdu????o do adicional de capital principal, entre outras quest??es. Mudan??as como a dedu????o gradativa do saldo dos cr??ditos tribut??rios diretamente do Capital e altera????es na forma de aceita????o das d??vidas subordinadas t??m forte impacto sobre todas as institui????es financeiras, com repercuss??o nos seus n??veis de capitaliza????o e alavancagem. Nesse contexto, foi realizado revis??o da literatura sobre os assuntos: Basileia I, II e III, riscos na gest??o banc??ria e gerenciamento de capital com ??nfase na determina????o do Patrim??nio de Refer??ncia Exigido. Os resultados encontrados sugerem a necessidade de refor??ar a gest??o de novas fontes de capital e de linhas de neg??cios e clientes, conforme circular 3644, sobretudo para os bancos m??dios