This diploma thesis deals with countercyclical measures of Basel III which will come into force in future. Thesis outlines the issue of cyclical effects which appeared in connection with application of Basel II and provides basic information about new treatment of this issue in Basel III. Further the thesis discusses preparedness of the czech banking sector for the introduction of countercyclical buffers and possibility of Tier I capital formation which should be the main part of the new bank capital adequacy including the capital buffers in future. Subsequently this thesis informs about conditions of using the countercyclical buffers and examines possible appropriate timing for their application. In the other parts of the thesis three selected foreign banking sectors and czech banking sector are examinated with the main focus on their weak spots and their possible development in the case of application of Basel III before the beginning of the world economic crisis in 2007 . In the end the stability of the czech banking sector is examined in detail by using the crisis scenarios and also the impact of application of Basel III before 2007 is discussed.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de fournir à la banque Audi un outil à jour sur les façons de calculer le capital requis par Bâle pour certains risques financiers présents dans le portefeuille de la banque. La régulation internationale est en développement continu : des nouvelles approches sont proposées afin de couvrir au mieux les risques du marché et du secteur bancaire. Les crises financières récentes étaient à la base de ces réformes. De plus, la Banque Audi opère sur des marchés qui présentent des caractères spécifiques qu'il faut prendre en considération lors du calcul du capital requis. Cette thèse se concentre sur le risque de taux d'intérêt dans le livre de négociation de la banque, le risque de contrepartie et précisément l'ajustement d'évaluation de crédit tout en incorporant l'impact de la corrélation entre la qualité du crédit de la contrepartie et l'exposition prévue envers cette même contrepartie. La première partie de cette thèse traite de la nouvelle méthodologie suggérée par Bâle sur le Trading Book : Fundamental Review of the Trading Book. Le risque de taux d'intérêt est particulièrement analysé en utilisant la méthode standard, Sensitivity Based Approach (SBA), et des méthodes plus 'traditionnelles' de valeur à risque tout en utilisant différents modèles tels que Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), l'Analyse en Composantes Principales (ACP), l'Analyse en composantes indépendantes (ACI) et la version dynamique du modèle de taux de Nelson Siegel (DNS). Une application sur des portefeuilles d'obligations zéro coupons de différentes devises permet d'identifier la diversification des résultats entre les marchés stables européens (comme la France), moins stables (exemple Etats-Unis) et les marchés émergents (tel la Turquie). La deuxième partie est consacrée au risque de Contrepartie. Récemment, un nouveau capital est requis par les normes de Bâle afin de couvrir ce genre de risque. En 2014, la méthode est publiée : Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). On applique cette méthode sur différents types de produits dérivés afin de comparer le capital demandé par cette approche à celui obtenu par les modèles internes. Les modèles internes incorporent les estimations historiques ainsi que les projections futures du marché tout en se basant sur des modèles bien connus tels que Vasicek et GARCH. Plusieurs structures de hedging sont mises en place afin de mesurer l'impact de chacune sur les deux montants de capitaux requis (sous la méthode standard ou l'IMM). L'effet sur des produits en EUR et USD reflété que le modèle interne demande 80% du capital standard quand aucune stratégie de hedging n'est mise en place. Par contre, le hedging semble être beaucoup plus favorisé par le modèle standard que le modèle interne. La troisième partie est toujours sur le risque de Contrepartie, mais se focalise sur l'ajustement d'´évaluation de crédit (CVA). Ce sujet ne faisait pas partie des capitaux requis sauf récemment. A cause de son grand impact durant les récentes crises financières. Dès lors, si une opération avec des produits dérivés ne passe pas par une central clearing houses, un capital pour le CVA est requis. Dans ce travail, on détaille les méthodes acceptées par Bâle afin de calculer ces capitaux et on les compare entre elles. La comparaison se fait en se basant sur des portefeuilles de swap de taux d'intérêts avec, comme contreparties, différents pays d'Investment Grade. Cet article incorpore en plus l'impact de la corrélation entre la détérioration de la qualité de la contrepartie et l'augmentation de l'exposition prévue avec cette contrepartie connue sous le nom de WrongWay Risk : des modèles de correction d'erreurs (ECM) sont mis en place afin de déterminer ce lien. Les résultats permettent de montrer l'importance d'utiliser les CDS des contreparties et non de se limiter à leur note (Investment Grade ou pas)... / This thesis aims at providing Bank Audi with an updated tool to understand and investigate in given risk types encountered in their portfolios and the way Basel suggests computing their capital charges. International regulator is constantly changing and modifying previously used approaches to enhance the reflection of the market and banking sector risks. The recent financial crisis played a major role in these reforms, in addition the situation of Bank Audi and the markets it is operating in, represent certain specifications that should be accounted for. The work handles interest rate risk in the trading book, Counterparty Credit Risk faced with derivatives along a closer look on the Credit Valuation Adjustment topic and the incorporation of Wrong Way Risk. The first part discusses the new Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: focusing on the general interest rate risk factor, the paper compared Basel’s Sensitivity Based Approach (SBA) capital charge to more traditional approaches of VaR using several models such as Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Principal Components Analysis (PCA), Independent Components Analysis (ICA) and Dynamic Nelson Siegel. Application on portfolios with zero coupon bonds of different sovereigns revealed the divergence in results between stable markets (such as France and Germany), less stable (such as the USA) and emergent markets (such as Turkey). The second part is dedicated to the Counterparty Credit Risk. A new capital charge methodology was proposed by Basel and set as a standard rule in 2014: the Standardized Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR). Applying this approach on different derivatives portfolios, we compared it to internal models. The internal methodologies incorporated historical estimations and future projections based on Vasicek and GARCH models. Different hedging cases were investigated on EUR and USD portfolios. The impact of each hedging technique and the difference between IMM and the standardized methods were highlighted in this work: without hedging, the internal approach amends 80% of the standardized capital whereas, in general, the hedging is encouraged more under the standardized approach relatively to its capital reduction under the internal model. The third part remains a part of the Counterparty Credit Risk however, the main focus in this work is the Credit Valuation Adjustment. This topic was neglected in terms of capital charge earlier but due to its important impact is now incorporated as a capital charge amended when no central clearing is put in place when dealing with derivatives. We focus on the regulatory approaches of capital computation, comparing both accepted approaches based on portfolios of interest rate swaps held with investment grade sovereigns. An incorporation of the Wrong Way Risk is another addition in this work: using Error Correction Models we were able to reflect the impact of the correlation between the exposure and the credit quality of the investment grade sovereign we are dealing with. Based on such results, a suggestion of a re-calibrated standardized approach is in place to encourage the use of the CDS as an indicator of the credit quality of the counterparty and not its grade (investment or not) as followed by the new Basel regulations

Kommersiella fastigheter är en kapitalintensiv tillgång, i behov av externt kapital, med flertalet intressenter. Syftet med uppsatsen är att studera effekten av regelverket Basel III genom att se hur fastighetsbolagens finansiering av kommersiella fastigheter har förändrats mellan år 2014 och år 2019. Tidigare har kommersiella fastigheter till största del finansierats med banklån men även andra former av finansiering blir allt vanligare, till exempel genom obligationer, certifikat, crowdfunding och direktfinansiering. Traditionella banklån är beroende av hur bankernas utlåning sker, vilket genom Basel regelverket har blivit mer reglerat de senaste åren. Baselkommittén för banktillsyn främjar den globala finansiella stabiliteten genom att samordna bankregleringar och tillsyn inom den finansiella sektorn. Basel III innebär skärpta kapitalkrav för bankerna och begränsningar för hur exponerade banken får vara mot en bransch eller motpart vid kreditgivning. Undersökningen baserades på elva fastighetsbolag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen i ”large cap”-kategorin. Resultatet visade på en förändring av finansieringskällor för fastighetsbolagen mellan år 2014 och år 2019 där banklån i snitt minskade med 27 procentenheter medan obligationer i snitt ökade med 23 procentenheter. Användningen av certifikat som finansieringskälla ökade marginellt mellan 2014 och 2019. Fastighetsbolagen hade även under denna tidsperiod sänkt sina finansieringskostnader och uppnått en längre kapitalbindningstid samt har idag lägre belåningsgrader. Sammantaget leder detta till att fastighetsbolagens finansiella ställning har blivit bättre. / Commercial real estate is a capital-intensive asset, in need of external capital. The purpose of the thesis is to study the effect of the Basel III by looking at how the real estate companies' financing of commercial real estate has changed between 2014 and 2019. Previously, commercial real estate has largely been financed with bank loans, but other forms of financing are becoming more common, for example bonds, certificates, crowdfunding and direct financing. Traditional bank loans are depending on different aspects such as risk weighted assets, which through the Basel regulations has become more regulated in recent years. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision promotes global financial stability by coordinating banking regulations and supervision in the financial sector. Basel III entails stricter capital requirements for the banks and limits on how exposed the bank may be to an industry or counterparty when granting credit. The study was based on eleven real estate companies listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange in the “large cap” category. The result showed a change in funding sources for the real estate companies between 2014 and 2019 where bank loans on average decreased by 27 percentage points while bonds on average increased by 23 percentage points. The use of certificates as a source of financing increased marginally between 2014 and 2019. During this period, the real estate companies had also lowered their financing costs and achieved a longer capital commitment period and today have lower loan-to-value ratios. To summarize, this means that the real estate companies' financial position has improved. TRITA-ABE-MBT-20479

Denna uppsats behandlar vilka likheter och skillnader det finns i kreditbedömningsprocessen för en stor respektive liten bank på den svenska marknaden. Detta finner vi intressant då det ständigt tillkommer nya aktörer på marknaden samt att ämnet alltid förblir aktuellt. Uppsatsen behandlar även om det skett någon större utveckling av processen till följd av den finansiella kris som skedde år 2008 samt hur man förutspår att kreditbedömningsprocessen kommer att fortsätta utvecklas i framtiden. Vår studie fokuserar på kreditbedömningsprocessen till små- och medelstora företag som är ett viktigt segment för både banker men även för samhället. De banker som jämförs i studien är Marginalen bank som vi anser vara en mindre bank och Handelsbanken som är en de fyra storbankerna i Sverige. En slutsats har dragits utifrån vår studie att det finns både likheter och skillnader mellan bankernas kreditgivningsprocesser samt att Finanskrisen år 2008 har kommit att påverka Basel-regelverket och därigenom även utvecklingen av kreditgivningsprocessen. De båda bankerna har en gemensam syn vad gäller den framtida utvecklingen av processen som innebär att en större automatisering med största sannolikhet kommer att ske. / This paper deals with the similarities and differences in the credit assessment process for well known and respected small sized bank in the Swedish market. We find this interesting as there are always new players in the market and make sure the different topics and issues are constantly updated and stay updated on current trends and demands. The study also applies to the process of a major development which resulted from the financial crisis in 2008, and how to predict the credit assessment system with its continuation and development in the future. Our study focuses on the credit assessment process for small and medium-sized enterprises, which is an important segment for both banks, but also for society. The two banks compared in our study are Marginalen Bank, which we consider to be a smaller bank and Handelsbanken, which is one of the four major banks in Sweden. A conclusion has been drawn from our study that there are both similarities and differences between the banks' crediting processes and that the 2008 financial crisis has affected the Basel acquisition and thereby also the development of the credit granting process. Both banks have a common view regarding the future development of the process, which means that greater automation is most likely to happen.

[pt] Este trabalho analisa a construção dos padrões regulatórios bancários internacionais a partir de uma perspectiva de Relações Internacionais. Tem como objeto a transformação regulatória observada em Basileia III no pós-crise 2007/2008, como forma de acessar a problemática mais ampla do Poder Estrutural no Sistema Monetário Internacional. A hipótese que guia o estudo é a de que apesar da regulação bancária internacional ser concernente ao poder estrutural do dólar há espaço de atuação política aos países emergentes/periféricos, na dimensão institucional internacional e ideacional. Analisa-se o sistema monetário internacional a partir de seus elementos constitutivos e os processos políticos, econômicos e ideacionais que conformam a história da regulação bancária internacional. Este tema representa, desde a perspectiva dos países periféricos, um pouco problematizado espaço de política internacional. Parte-se de análise epistemológica sobre o campo para realizar análise teórica sobre o Poder Estrutural e sua aplicação à análise do SMI. Considera-se o surgimento da regulação bancária internacional em meados dos anos 1970 e procura-se explorar como os marcos regulatórios acordados no BCBS (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) foram atingidos em relação aos eventos de crise que marcaram o sistema monetário internacional a partir dos anos 1980. Exploram-se, nesse sentido, os condicionantes estruturais e locais que levaram ao surgimento dos acordos de Basileia I, II e III. As conclusões consolidadas pelo estudo revelam a importância dos elos ideacionais e da atuação institucional advocatícia para a definição dos padrões de regulação bancária internacional e demonstram a possibilidade de um espaço político para atuação dos países mal posicionados em relação à hierarquia monetária internacional. / [en] This dissertation aims to analyze the construction of international banking regulatory standards from an International Relations perspective. Its object is the regulatory transformation observed in Basel III in the post-2007/2008 crisis as a way of accessing the broader problem of Structural Power in the International Monetary System and the political space available to peripheral countries in this context. The hypothesis that guide the study is that even though international banking regulation is aligned to US structural power, there are political spaces for action for emerging/peripheral countries in the international institutional and ideational dimensions. Therefore, it analyzes the international monetary system from its constituent elements and the political, economic and ideational processes that have shaped international banking regulation. This topic represents an under problematized space of international relations. The work departs from an epistemological analysis and follows through a theoretical analysis of Structural Power and its application towards the International Monetary System. It then considers the emergence of international banking regulation in the mid-1970s and seeks to explore how regulatory frameworks agreed upon the BCBS (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) were achieved in relation to crisis events that have characterized the international monetary system since the 1980s. In this sense, the structural and local constraints that led to the emergence of the Basel I, II and III agreements are explored. The conclusions consolidated by the study reveal the importance of ideational links and institutional action for standards definition in international banking regulation and suggest a political space for action by countries poorly positioned in the international monetary hierarchy.

Finanskrisen 2007-2008 blev startskottet för nya bankregleringar och åtstramningar.Regelverket Basel III introducerades med syfte att hantera risker bättre genom att införahårdare kapital- och likviditetskrav som i sin tur skulle motverka eventuella nya systematiskarisker. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka Basel III:s påverkan på diversifieringen avfastighetsfinansiering på den svenska marknaden och utreda de drivkrafter och effekter avdessa förändringar. Studien ämnar att ge ett brett perspektiv genom att undersöka påverkan påett flertal sektorer i den empiriska undersökningen. Efter genomförandet av studien så kan det konstateras att bankerna har fått ökade kostnadersom sedermera har förskjutits till kunderna. Vidare har belåningsgraderna i fastighetssektornminskat till följd av implementeringen Basel III. Det nya regulatoriska landskapet har banat väg för diversifiering. Dock, så kan de primäradrivkrafterna tillskrivas makro-sentiment, jakt på avkastning, market timing och aktörer somhar vuxit ifrån sitt beroende av bankkapital. / The financial crisis of 2007-2008 was the start of new banking regulations and austeritymeasures. Basel III was introduced with the intent of managing risks better by introducingstricter capital and liquidity requirements. The new requirements would in return counteractany new systematic risks. The purpose of this study is to investigate Basel III’s impact oncredit diversification on the Swedish market and navigate what the driving forces are and theeffects of regulatory change. The aim is to provide a broad perspective by presenting valuableinformation relevant to the subject and examining the impact of these changes on differentsectors. The results of the study shows that new regulations have entailed a major regulatory changewith subsequent implications on the market. Findings also show that banks have experiencedan increase of costs which have since been shifted to customers. Furthermore, loan-to-valueratios within the real estate sector have decreased as a result of the implementation of BaselIII. The new regulatory framework has paved the way for diversification. However, thedevelopment has been propelled by macro sentiment, reaching for yield-behavior, markettiming and firms outgrowing their dependency on bank capital.

Diese Arbeit umfasst drei unabhängige Aufsätze, welche die Auswirkungen verschiedener regulatorischer Maßnahmen auf das Bankenrisiko und/oder die Finanzstabilität untersuchen. Zunächst wird der Einfluss von Eigenkapitalanforderungen auf den Zusammenhang zwischen Bankgröße und Volatilität analysiert. Unsere Panel-Datenanalyse zeigt, dass strengere Eigenkapitalanforderungen den Nexus zwischen Größe und Volatilität schwächt. Große Banken haben, ceteris paribus, einen weniger volatilen Kreditbestand, wenn sie strengerer Kapitalregulierung ausgesetzt sind. Gemäß dem Granularitätskonzept kann dies ebenfalls die makroökonomische Stabilität erhöhen. Als Nächstes untersuche ich, ob MiFID II die frühzeitige Informationsweitergabe über Änderungen von Analystenempfehlungen an einzelne Anleger, genannt Tipping, reduziert hat. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die absoluten Renditen und Handelsvolumina einen Tag vor Veröffentlichung einer Hoch- oder Herabstufung vor und nach Inkrafttreten von MiFID II signifikant ansteigen. Da die Aktienkurse am Veröffentlichungstag weiter steigen bzw. fallen, profitieren ausgewählte Anleger trotz der regulatorischen Änderung weiterhin von einem Informationsvorteil. Dies hat vermutlich negative Auswirkungen auf den Finanzmarkt insgesamt. Zuletzt untersuche ich wie sich die Ausgabe von Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Anleihen, die als regulatorisches zusätzliches Kernkapital (AT1) geltend gemacht werden können, auf das Bankenrisiko auswirkt. Meine Analyse zeigt, dass AT1-CoCo-Anleihen ein bis drei Jahre nach Ausgabe zu einem signifikant höheren Bankenrisiko führen. Übereinstimmend mit theoretischen Studien deutet dies darauf hin, dass CoCo-Anleihen ihr Potenzial zur Stärkung der Eigenkapitalbasis der Banken durch die regulatorischen Anforderungen genommen wurde. / This thesis comprises three independent essays evaluating the impact of different regulatory policies on bank risk and/or financial stability. First, we examine the effects of capital regulation on the link between bank size and volatility. Our panel data analysis reveals that more stringent capital regulation weakens the size-volatility nexus. Hence, large banks show, ceteris paribus, lower loan portfolio volatility when facing more stringent capital regulation. According to the granularity concept, that can increase macroeconomic stability. Next, I evaluate if MiFID II reduced the early information disclosure on analyst recommendation changes to selected investors - so-called tipping. I find absolute returns and turnover rise significantly on the day preceding the up- or downgrade release before and after MiFID II became law. Given that stock prices move further in the revision direction on publication day, selected investors continue to profit from an informational advantage, notwithstanding the regulatory change. That is likely harmful to the financial market overall. Lastly, I examine the impact of issuing contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds that qualify as regulatory additional tier 1 (AT1) capital on bank risk. My treatment effects analysis reveals that issuing AT1 CoCo bonds results in significantly higher risk-taking one to three years after the issuance. That is in line with previous theoretical studies suggesting that regulators have stripped CoCo bonds of their potential to strengthen the banks’ capital bases.

2007年美國次級房貸違約衍生國際金融市場之流動性危機，造成金融商品與資產價格下跌，銀行業損失擴大，流動性危機擴散成為健全性危機。導致2008年9月雷曼公司倒閉，引發全球金融經濟危機，蔓延到全世界，百年難得一見。歸納金融危機的緣由，主要為英美大型金融機構利用國際監理裁定，進行營運套利，並從事高槓桿操作，無視於資本適足性的不足。 此外，金融機構的流動性未能確保，表外交易特別是店頭衍生性交易，揭露不透明，監理未能落實。導致金融市場機能失序，顯見國際金融監理核心基準的巴賽爾資本協定，已無法因應金融創新與金融環境的巨變。 為處理本次全球金融危機所凸顯的市場失靈（market failure），解決銀行部門的脆弱性問題，因此，2010年11月12日G20各國領袖通過『新巴塞爾協議』(Basel III)，提高銀行資本適足率與流動性的標準。 本文係以國內某家公營銀行在後金融海嘯『新巴塞爾協議』(Basel III)，提高銀行資本提列要求與加強銀行流動性管理的 Basel III規範， 將自 2013 年起分階段逐步實行，2019 年起則正式全盤施行；屆時更為嚴格的規定，可能會促使銀行改變投資組合、影響銀行的準備金需求與流動性管理策略，強化自有資本比率規範，並訂定槓桿比率、流動性覆蓋比率等相關規定，對其資本適足性及流動性要求的挑戰與對策。

Diploma thesis "Optimization capital charges in VaR model utilizing dynamic risk management strategies" deals with banks opportunity to reduce Basel capital requirements via estimation volatility in VaR model for separate time periods differently. It analyses current crisis, its sources, process, but especially its influence of new worldwide accepted regulatory standards, which require nearly doubled regulatory capital. Regarding high impact to industry return on equity the thesis discusses the possibility of dynamic capital optimization based on alternating conservative and aggressive risk management strategies. Empirical part of thesis tests outcomes of volatility modeling based on historical quotes of six European indexes since 2003, which are classified by volatility levels and broken down into several time periods. We suggest approach which enables financial institutions to reduce the impact of new Basel rules on their ROE, while they meet all VaR model conditions defined by the regulator. However, there are also negative consequences of this lowering level of capital represented by increasing failure rates of models. Although banks are able by suggested approach to achieve capital reduction by 20 percent, they are in the same time forced to use one of a very aggressive strategies. Dynamic...

Notre intérêt dans cette thèse est de combiner les différentes techniques de mesure du risque opérationnel dans les secteurs financiers, et on s'intéresse plus particulièrement aux conséquences du risque d'estimation dans les modèles, qui est un risque opérationnel particulier. Nous allons présenter les concepts mathématiques et actuariels associés ainsi qu'une application numérique en ce qui concerne l'approche de mesure avancée comme Loss Distribution pour calculer l'exigence en capital. En plus, on se concentre sur le risque d'estimation illustré avec l'analyse des scénarios de l'opinion d'experts en conjonction avec des données de pertes internes pour évaluer notre exposition aux évènements de gravité. Nous concluons cette première partie en définissant une technique de mise l'échelle sur la base de (MCO) qui nous permet de normaliser nos données externes à une banque locale Libanaise.Dans la deuxième partie, on donne de l'importance sur la mesure de l'erreur induite sur le SCR par l'erreur d'estimation des paramètres, on propose une méthode alternative pour estimer une courbe de taux et on termine par attirer l'attention sur les réflexions autour des hypothèses de calcul et ce que l'on convient de qualifier d'hypothèse "cohérente avec les valeurs de marché" serait bien plus pertinente et efficace que la complexification du modèle, source d'instabilité supplémentaire, ainsi mettre en évidence le risque d'estimation qui est lié au risque opérationnel et doit être accordé beaucoup plus d'attention dans nos modèles de travail / Our interest in this thesis is first to combine the different measurement techniques for operational risk in financial companies, and we highlight more and more the consequences of estimation risk which is treated as a particular part of operational risk. In the first part, we will present a full overview of operational risk, from the regulatory laws and regulations to the associated mathematical and actuarial concepts as well as a numerical application regarding the Advanced Measurement Approach, like Loss Distribution to calculate the capital requirement, then applying the Extreme Value Theory. We conclude this first part by setting a scaling technique based on (OLS) enabling us to normalize our external data to a local Lebanese Bank. On the second part, we feature estimation risk by first measuring the error induced on the SCR by the estimation error of the parameters, to having an alternative yield curve estimation and finishing by calling attention to the reflections on assumptions of the calculation instead of focusing on the so called hypothesis "consistent with market values", would be more appropriate and effective than to complicate models and generate additional errors and instability. Chapters in this part illustrate the estimation risk in its different aspects which is a part of operational risk, highlighting as so the attention that should be given in treating our models