Money is a public good. The regulation of its creation, supply and distribution is of national and international interest. Monetary stability is an important regulatory goal conducted through an interaction of economic, political, religious factors as well as legislative action. The state plays an intermediary role, bridging domestic interests and international interests. Increasing interdependence between national economic systems and international obligations sometimes leads to the manipulation of systems as well as currency wars. Regulation is done through co-operative international action since domestic regulators are no longer sufficiently equipped to do so. Resultantly, there is an emergence of new structural paradigms to deal with it. Meanwhile, states still enjoy certain residual competences of sovereignty. Numerous legal factors act as constraints on sovereignty with far reaching implications on states’ regulatory space. In light of the divergence of regulatory objectives, there is an apparent need to balance municipal with international interests on the regulation of the monetary system. / Mercantile Law / LLM

此篇論文利用馬可夫狀態轉換模型實證出在歐元區的股票市場中，以規模溢酬、價值溢酬以及市場溢酬建構的投資組合存在兩個不同的情境狀態。以歐元區市場溢酬和規模溢酬建構的投資組合(SMB portfolios)在牛市存在較高的平均報酬，另一方面以價值溢酬建構的投資組合(HML portfolios)則在熊市有較高的平均報酬。而以規模溢酬、價值溢酬以及歐元區市場溢酬建構的投資組合，其報酬率變異數在熊市皆比牛市來得高。由於此篇論文實證出不論在樣本內或樣本外的測試中，以規模溢酬以及價值溢酬建構的投資組合，其特色反轉投資策略皆優於買入並持有的投資策略，因此本篇論文建議，在歐元區以規模因素（size factor）及帳面價值與市價比因素（book-to-market factor）為考量建構投資組合時，考慮規模溢酬以及價值溢酬在不同情境狀態下的反轉異常現象是重要且不可忽視的課題。 / This paper documents the presence of two regimes in the joint distribution of stock returns on European market premium portfolio and portfolios tracking size- and value effects in the Euro area. The mean returns of the EMU market portfolio and SMB portfolios are higher in the bull state while the mean return of the HML portfolio is larger in the bear state. Volatilities of the EMU market portfolio, SMB portfolio and the HML portfolio are all larger in the bear state compared to the bull state. This paper uses the Markov regime-switching model to generate the switching signal of market, size and value portfolios in the stock market and reallocates the market, size and value portfolios in the stock market by the mean-variance approach. Since both in the in-sample and out-sample test, the performance of the style rotation strategy outperforms style consistent strategy of the SMB portfolio and HML portfolio, this paper proposes that when analyzing investments in returns of size and value portfolios in the European market, it is important for us to account for anomalies for size and value effects in European market under different regimes. In the regime-switching VAR(1) model to account for the net capital flow predictability on the stock returns of EMU market, SMB and HML portfolios and the interrelationships among these variables. The result shows that adding the European Union net capital flow in relation to the economy's size as the predictor variable to the regime switching VAR(1) model, it improves the asset allocation outcomes both in the in-sample and out-sample test. Furthermore, this paper has found that both in the bull and bear states, the impulse response function shows that a shock of one standard deviation of net capital inflows last month will reduce the EMU market return up to near three months. Besides, the net capital inflow shock in European stock market will generates appreciation of companies with low book-to-market ratios (growth stocks) and large-sized firms in the bull state, while it generates appreciation of companies with high book-to-market ratios (value stocks) in the bear state.

Cette thèse vise à combler le fossé entre l'analyse de l’économie réelle et l’économie monétaire dans la théorie du commerce international. À cette fin, j’analyse l’effet Cantillon, i.e. l'impact différentiel de l'expansion monétaire sur les prix, la production, les patrimoines et la structure du commerce international. Dans la première partie, je passe en revue la littérature en économie internationale, à partir du 19e siècle jusqu’aux théories contemporaines. Dans la deuxième partie, j’utilise les contributions de Ludwig von Mises à la théorie de la monnaie et des cycles économiques comme fondement de l'analyse de l’impact de l'expansion monétaire sur le commerce international. Dans le chapitre 4, j’examine la relation entre le développement du marché financier et le commerce. Dans le chapitre 5, je discute l'impact de l'inflation monétaire sur les modes de financement du commerce et sur la transmission des cycles économiques. Les principaux résultats de ma recherche sont que l'expansion monétaire modifie la direction, la composition, le volume et la valeur des flux commerciaux et de capitaux. J’applique ce cadre théorétique dans le chapitre 6, pour expliquer l'évolution des ventes de marchandises et des flux de capitaux au cours des dernières décennies, et d'illustrer mes conclusions avec les données statistiques de la plus récente crise financière et de l'effondrement du commerce mondial de 2008-2009. Dans la troisième partie, j’analyse l’impact de l'expansion monétaire sur l’organisation industrielle internationale et la distribution mondiale des revenus et des patrimoines. Dans la section finale, je présente les implications majeures de mon analyse pour le commerce international et les politiques monétaires, et son importance pour des recherches futures. / This dissertation endeavors to offer a way to bridge the gap between the analysis of real and monetary phenomena in international economics. To this end, I analyze Cantillon effects, i.e. the differential impact of monetary expansion on prices, production, wealth, and the pattern of international trade. In Part I review the standard literature in international economics from the 19th century to contemporary theories. In Part II I use the contributions of Ludwig von Mises to the theory of money and business cycles as the foundation for the analysis of monetary expansion and international trade. In Chapter 4, I focus on the relationship between financial development and international trade. In Chapter 5, I analyze the impact of inflation and5fractional reserve banking on trade finance, and the transmission of business cycles across national borders. The main findings of my research are that monetary expansion modifies the direction, composition, volume and value of trade and capital flows. I apply this framework in Chapter 6, to explain the evolution of merchandise and capital flows over the last decades, and illustrate my findings with statistical evidence from the most recent financial crisis and the global trade collapse of 2008-2009. In Part III I analyze the impact of monetary expansion on international industrial organization, and the global distribution of income and wealth. In the concluding section, I draw out the major implications of my analysis for international trade and monetary policies, and its importance for future research.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Adriano Vilela Sampaio.pdf: 791664 bytes, checksum: a1e2f8e1979518f22640b33ffdf362c3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-05-15 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The objective of this work is the study of the Brazilian economic policy autonomy in the context of increasing capital mobility and financial liberalization initiated on the 1990s. In order to accomplish our purpose, it is made a brief presentassesation of the evolution of the international financial system and of the debate between liberalization and capital controls on the theoretical and empirical literature with the purpose of comprehending how the functioning of the international financial system may restrict the economic policy autonomy and whether this restriction is desirable or not. The analysis of econometrical papers that tried to assess the impacts of the Brazilian financial liberalization showed that given the divergences of the results, it is not possible to corroborate the hypothesis that the financial liberalization generated the benefits proclaimed by its defenders. About the works that discussed the economic policy autonomy, the results didn t allow a definitive conclusion. It was made an econometrical exercise to assess the impacts of the financial integration, represented by capital flows, over the economic policy autonomy. The results suggest a loss on the economic policy autonomy in the period jan/1995 dec/1999 and that such loss didn t occur in the period jan/1999 dec/2007, although the capital flows had been relevants on explaining the interest rate / O objetivo deste trabalho é o estudo da autonomia da política econômica brasileira no contexto de crescente mobilidade de capitais e liberalização financeira iniciada a partir dos anos 90. Para tanto, faz-se uma breve apresentação da evolução do sistema financeiro internacional e do debate entre liberalização e controles de capitais na literatura teórica e empírica com o propósito de compreender de que forma o funcionamento do sistema financeiro internacional pode restringir a autonomia de política econômica dos países e se essa restrição é desejável ou não. A análise de trabalhos econométricos que trataram dos impactos da liberalização financeira brasileira mostrou que, dada a divergência dos resultados, não é possível corroborar a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira brasileira trouxe os benefícios apregoados por seus defensores. Em relação aos trabalhos que discutiram a autonomia de política econômica, os resultados não permitiram uma conclusão mais segura. Foi realizado um exercício econométrico para avaliar os impactos da integração financeira, representada pelos fluxos de capitais, sobre a autonomia de política econômica. Os resultados sugerem a perda de autonomia de política econômica no período jan/1995-dez/1998 e que não houve essa perda no período jan/1999-dez/2007 embora os fluxos de capitais tenham se mostrado relevantes na explicação da taxa de juros

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-07T19:08:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Camila Saúde da Silva.pdf: 1143896 bytes, checksum: 7d9be6a1a6912457222c5c679e26f19b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-14 / ApexBrasil - Agência Brasileira de Promoção de Exportações e Investimentos / Esta dissertação objetiva analisar comparativamente a evolução dos fluxos de investimento externo direto na economia mundial e brasileira no período entre 1994 e 2011. A metodologia é baseada na estatística descritiva utilizando a correlação de Pearson e dados secundários relacionados com os fluxos de investimento externo direto, estoque, além da origem dos investimentos (países) e discriminação das atividades receptoras de investimento. Examinaram-se inicialmente os fluxos mundiais e constatou-se que os mesmos têm aumentando, atingindo US$ 1,5 trilhões em 2011. Os fluxos também têm se direcionado para os países em desenvolvimento que apresentaram aumento de 12% em 2011 com relação ao ano anterior. Com relação à origem dos investimentos diretos externos, os países que mais investiram no mundo foram por região, Portugal, Estados Unidos, Japão e Nova Zelândia. As atividades da economia que mais receberam investimento externo direto mundial, foram indústria e serviços, com destaque para a indústria química e serviços de utilidade pública. No caso brasileiro, os países que mais investiram foram os Países Baixos, seguido dos EUA e Espanha. Nas atividades econômicas, o Brasil recebeu maiores investimentos no setor de serviços em 2011, com destaque para os serviços financeiros. O impacto na balança comercial e emprego foram positivos, todavia, com taxas de crescimento bem distintas. No caso do investimento brasileiro no exterior, os fluxos se direcionaram em sua maioria para os Países Baixos, e as atividades econômicas mais investidas no mundo pelas multinacionais brasileiras foram petróleo e gás natural e extração de minerais metálicos, metalúrgica e serviços financeiros. Com a análise da correlação entre os fluxos de investimento direto e o PIB, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação, taxa de juros e taxa de desemprego, concluiu-se que o produto interno bruto está positivamente relacionado com os fluxos de investimento direto com intensidade alta; a relação com a taxa de câmbio se mostrou positiva em alguns anos e negativa em outros; a taxa de inflação, a taxa de juros e a taxa de desemprego se mostraram negativamente relacionadas com os fluxos, confirmando a teoria. / This dissertation aims to comparatively analyze the evolution of FDI flows in the world economy and Brazil between 1994 and 2011. The methodology is based on descriptive statistics and analysis of secondary data related to flows of foreign direct investment, stock, beyond the origin of investments (countries) and discrimination against recipients of investment activities. Were examined initially global flows and found that they are increasing, reaching $ 1.5 trillion in 2011. The flows have also been directed to developing countries which showed an increase of 12% in 2011 compared with the previous year. Regarding the origin of foreign direct investment, countries that have invested most in the world by region, Portugal, United States, Japan and New Zealand. The activities of the economy that received more foreign direct investment worldwide, were industry and services, with emphasis on the chemical industry and utilities. In Brazil, the countries that invested were the Netherlands, followed by the USA and Spain. In economic activities, the country received more investment in the service sector in 2011, with emphasis on financial services. The impact on the trade balance and employment were positive, however, with very different growth rates. In the case of Brazilian investment abroad, the flow is directed mostly to the Netherlands, and economic activities more invested in the world by Brazilian multinationals were oil and natural gas extraction and metal ore, metallurgical and financial services. With the analysis of the correlation between flows of direct investment and GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and unemployment rate, it was concluded that the gross domestic product is positively related to direct investment flows with high intensity , the relationship with the exchange rate was positive in some years and negative in others, the rate of inflation, the interest rate and the unemployment rate showed negatively related flows, confirming the theory.

This thesis presents three essays on the main determinants and regulations of international capital flows. The essays contribute to an ongoing significant debate among scholars and practitioners on what determines international capital flows by examining the following issues: Global liquidity, market sentiment and financial stability indices; Global liquidity and capital flow regulations; and Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics. In the first essay, we explore the main determinants of global liquidity, measured using cross-border claims of banks, and establish the link between a variety of financial stability indices and global liquidity. For a sample of 149 countries between 2000 and 2016, we find that Bloomberg Financial Stability Indices are more powerful in explaining global liquidity than FRED Financial Stress Indices and the Euro Area Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (CISS). Moreover, both market sentiment indices, namely the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index are economically and statistically significant on cross-border bank flows. The research provides useful insights on what market sentiment and financial stability indices are better to employ for financial markets surveillance and as such practice of investment management. We argue that anyone interested in using financial stability indices as indicators of financial conditions and the level of financial stress would benefit from tracking several indices and not just one. The second essay examines the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential policies as ways to manage the volume of international capital flows, controlling for other determinants. The findings show that capital controls imposed on inflows generally prevail over controls imposed on outflows in reducing the magnitude of capital flows. The results are consistent with the pecking order theory on capital flows and are connected with the riskiness of different asset classes. For a sample of 112 countries over 2000 and 2016, we find that FX and/or countercyclical reserve (RR_REV) and general countercyclical capital buffer requirements (CTC), reserve requirement ratios (RR) and concentration limits (CONC) are the most effective macroprudential policies for managing countries' exposures to global liquidity fluctuations. Moreover, progress is being made to reduce the systemic risks created by systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) using macroprudential policies. The results reflect recent developments in Basel III regulations and shed light on the effective calibration of capital flow regulations to country-specific circumstances. The final essay examines the link between global governance indicators and patterns of gross capital flows, controlling for other determinants. For a sample of 67 countries between 2000 and 2016, we contribute to explain the existence of the Lucas paradox (1990) on "why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries" and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle (1980). The findings show that institutional quality rather than the effect of diminishing returns of capital is a key explanation for the Lucas paradox. Finally, we provide new evidence on the relationship between the multidimensional nature of financial development and gross capital flows. The findings show the importance and predominance of financial institutions versus financial markets in the dissemination of international capital flows across counties.

L’int´erˆet pour la liquidit´e mondiale s’est accru ces derni`eres ann´ees, motiv´e essentiellement parla complexit´e de ce concept et ces effets encore peu connus sur l’´economie, les march´es financierset les ´economies ´emergentes. Les travaux de cette th`ese visent `a contribuer `a cette litt´eratureen ´etudiant, dans un premier temps, les facteurs macro´economiques et financiers `a l’origine dela dynamique de la liquidit´e mondiale et de son allocation sur les diff´erents march´es du globe.Dans un second temps, quelques effets de l’´evolution de la liquidit´e mondiale sont analys´esen se focalisant sur les ´economies ´emergentes et les d´es´equilibres globaux. Nous montronstout d’abord que l’´etat de l’´economie r´eelle ainsi que celui des march´es financiers d´eterminentconsid´erablement l’´evolution de la liquidit´e mondiale avec des nuances selon qu’il s’agit d’unep´eriode de crise ou d’une p´eriode de croissance. Les autorit´es mon´etaires, et dans une grandemesure la R´eserve F´ed´erale am´ericaine, ont un rˆole tr`es important dans cette dynamique globaleet sa r´epartition dans le monde. Les pays ´emergents, receveurs de capitaux, sont impact´es parces flux qui affectent consid´erablement leur ´economie r´eelle. Toutefois, l’effet sur les march´esfinanciers dans ces pays reste limit´e, contrebalanc´e par les acquisitions d’actifs libell´es en devises´etrang`eres d´etenus par les investisseurs locaux. Quant aux d´es´equilibres globaux, la liquidit´emondiale pourrait ˆetre int´egr´ee aux indicateurs avanc´es permettant d’expliquer l’´evolution deces d´es´equilibres. L’int´erˆet pour la liquidit´e mondiale et son suivi sont donc tout `a fait justifi´es. / The interest in Global Liquidity has increased in recent years due essentially to the complexityof the concept and its less known effects on the real economy, the financial markets, and theemerging economies. This dissertation contributes to the Global Liquidity literature by studying,firstly, the macroeconomic and financial determinants, which drive global liquidity dynamicsand its allocation on different markets of the world. Secondly, some of global liquidity effects,focusing on emerging economies and global imbalances are analysed. The results of these worksprove that the state of real economy as well as those of financial markets impact dramaticallythe global liquidity dynamics depending on boom and bust periods. The monetary authorities,and to a greater extent the U.S. Federal Reserve, have a significant role in this global dynamicsand its global allocation. The real activity in emerging economies is significantly impacted bycapital inflows. However, the effects on financial markets are dampened by the offsetting effectsof assets purchased in foreign currencies from local investors. In regard to global imbalancesissues, global liquidity can be added to leading indicators, which help explaining the dynamicsof these imbalances. It is therefore, useful to track the dynamics of global liquidity.

Questa tesi presenta nuova evidenza empirica sulla relazione tra allocazione dei fattori di produzione e differenze di produttivita' tra paesi (primo capitolo) e tra imprese (secondo capitolo). Il primo capitolo analizza la questione degli scarsi movimenti di capitale tra paesi ricchi e paesi poveri (Lucas' paradox). Una calibrazione del modello neoclassico applicata a nuovi dati mostra come, una volta tenuto conto delle differenze nello stock di capitale umano e nella remunerazione del fattore capitale, i rendimenti da capitale fisico sono molti simili tra paesi ricchi e paesi poveri. Il secondo capitolo studia la relazione tra l'allocazione dei fattori fra imprese e la produttivita' totale dei fattori (TFP). Applicando il modello di Hsieh e Klenow (2009) a dati di imprese manifatturiere di Cile e Messico negli anni '80, si nota una minore presenza di distorsioni nell'allocazione dei fattori in Cile. Questa piu' efficiente allocazione dei fattori di produzione tra imprese potrebbe aiutare a capire perche' l'economia cilena, diversamente da quella messicana, recupero' velocemente dopo la crisi dei primi anni '80. / This Thesis provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between the allocation of factors of production and differences in productivity across countries (first chapter) and across firms (second chapter). In the first chapter I address the issue of small capital flows between rich and poor countries (the so-called Lucas' paradox) observed in data. Applying a calibration approach to new data I show that, taking into account differences in human capital and in the capital share on output, returns to physical capital in rich and poor countries are fairly close. In the second chapter I investigate the relationship between the allocation of factors across firms within a country and TFP. Applying the model proposed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) to firm level data of Chile and Mexico during 1980s I find that there are less distortions operating on average in the Chilean manufacturing sector with respect to the Mexican one. I argue that the more efficient allocation of factors across firms could help explain why Chile recovered rapidly while Mexico stagnated after the crisis of the early 1980s.

With the internationalization of financial markets, short-term capital flows to emerging market economies have become an important phenomenon in the world. The papers in this dissertation are concerned with investigating the effects of such flows in the receiving countries. The analysis is cast in a dynamic general equilibrium framework for small open economies. Two of the papers are quantitative investigations of the forces at work in small and relatively poor economies that liberalize trade and capital flows. The common approach of these papers is that of a computational experiment: calibrated simulations constitute a test of whether the models can explain certain dynamics which we observe in the data. The first paper investigates whether a calibrated two-sector neoclassical growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of capital flows in the Baltic countries after the fall of the Soviet Union. The results indicate that it can, and that the large and persistent trade deficits which we observe in the data need not be a reason to worry. However, the model also tells us that a reversal of capital flows and large sectoral adjustments lie ahead of the Baltic countries. In the second paper, the focus is on modelling the observed co-movement between consumption and the real exchange rate in Spain, which experienced large capital inflows following the entry into the European Community in 1986. In accordance with episodes of trade liberalization elsewhere, consumption in Spain boomed and the real exchange rate appreciated for several years after 1986. Standard two-sector models with traded and non-traded goods have problems accounting for these facts. The paper explores some mechanisms that can improve the standard modelling framework, and evaluates their quantitative importance in calibrated simulations for Spain. The third paper studies the government’s optimal bailout policy in an environment where sudden stops of capital flows cause financial crises in a small open economy. Real world events, such as the financial crises in the South East Asian countries in 1997, motivate the analysis. Compared to the previous essays, the paper is different in its nature in that it develops a highly stylized environment to analytically study the government’s optimal bailout policy. The paper shows that the government should optimally commit to a policy that only partially protects private debtors against inefficient liquidation. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2004

Money is a public good. The regulation of its creation, supply and distribution is of national and international interest. Monetary stability is an important regulatory goal conducted through an interaction of economic, political, religious factors as well as legislative action. The state plays an intermediary role, bridging domestic interests and international interests. Increasing interdependence between national economic systems and international obligations sometimes leads to the manipulation of systems as well as currency wars. Regulation is done through co-operative international action since domestic regulators are no longer sufficiently equipped to do so. Resultantly, there is an emergence of new structural paradigms to deal with it. Meanwhile, states still enjoy certain residual competences of sovereignty. Numerous legal factors act as constraints on sovereignty with far reaching implications on states’ regulatory space. In light of the divergence of regulatory objectives, there is an apparent need to balance municipal with international interests on the regulation of the monetary system. / Mercantile Law / LL. M.