Moins d’un siècle après la crise de 1929, la crise des subprimes marque un tournant décisif dans l’histoire financière mondiale, se distinguant des crises précédentes par son intensité et sa dimension globale. Dans un contexte d’interactions accrues entre pays développés et émergents, la stabilité financière constitue un enjeu décisif face au risque de contagion sur les marchés financiers. Dans le premier chapitre de cette thèse, nous nous intéressons au changement de paradigme réglementaire observé sur les marchés de dérivés après la crise des subprimes et aux enjeux en termes de stabilité financière d’une refonte de la réglementation sur ces marchés. Dans un second chapitre, nous mettons en exergue les phénomènes de contagion observés sur le marché de la dette durant la crise de la dette souveraine, et revenons sur l'impact des programmes de soutien mis en place par la BCE dans un contexte de forte contagion sur ce marché en 2010. Finalement dans un troisième, nous examinons l’impact de la politique monétaire américaine sur les flux capitaux vers les fonds obligataires spécialisés sur les économies émergentes en 2013. / Less than a century after the 1929 crisis, the subprime crisis was a turning point in world financial history, differing from previous crises by its intensity and global dimension. In a context of increased interactions between developed and emerging countries, financial stability became a critical issue given rising contagion risks on financial markets. In the first chapter of this thesis, we focus on the regulatory paradigm shift observed in the derivatives markets after the subprime crisis and resulting challenges on the back of a reshaping of the global financial regulation. In the second chapter, we highlight the contagion phenomena observed on debt markets during the euro area sovereign debt crisis, and observe the impact of support programs implemented by the ECB in 2010. Finally, in a third chapter, we examine the impact of U.S. monetary policy on capital flows to bond funds specialized in emerging economies in 2013.

Malgré les progrès de la coopération internationale, les enjeux politiques nationaux l’emportent souvent sur leurs pendants internationaux dans l’opinion publique. En gardant à l’esprit cette complexité qui entoure les relations internationales nous allons explorer, tout au long de cette thèse, différentes pistes liées à l’interdépendance entre pays et à la propagation internationale des politiques économiques.Tout d’abord, afin de mieux comprendre les enjeux internationaux des indications prospectives en cas de ZLB, nous développons, un modèle d’équilibre général à deux pays avec rigidités nominales des prix. Nous montrons qu’en cas de récession due à des anticipations pessimistes, une règle de Taylor augmentée et l’engagement à suivre cette règle, permettent de lisser les réactions des économies aux chocs.Ensuite, nous étudions l’effet de l’incertitude politique dans les pays avancés sur les flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents. Nous trouvons que cet impact sur les flux actions dépend largement de la source de l’incertitude (États-Unis ou Union Européenne). De plus, nous trouvons que la propagation des chocs varie en fonction du degré de stress financier mesuré par le VIX. Enfin, l’effet de l’incertitude politique européenne dépend aussi du risque souverain du pays émergent recevant les flux.Enfin, étant donné la dépendance de certains pays producteurs de matières premières envers l’investissement chinois, il nous paraît pertinent d’étudier quel serait l’impact d’un ralentissement de la Chine en particulier sur l’économie de ces pays. Nous trouvons que les pays d’Amérique Latine sont les plus fortement touchés, suivie par l’Asie (hors Chine). / Although international cooperation has been improved, national political issues are often outweighing international ones. Keeping in mind all this complexity which comes with international relations, we will explore several avenues of research on international linkages and economic policy spillovers.First, in order to better understand the international issue of forward guidance in case of ZLB, we develop a two-country general equilibrium model with price rigidities. We show that the augmented Taylor rule when the economy is at the zero bound, and the commitment to follow this rule, may help the economy to react in a smoother way to adverse productivity news shocks.Second, we examine the extent to which uncertainty with regard to macroeconomic policies in advanced countries spills over to emerging markets via gross portfolio bond and equity flows. We find that the impact of fluctuations in policy uncertainty on portfolio equity flows differs markedly depending on whether changes in policy uncertainty originate from the US or the EU. The size and direction of these spillover effects depends on the level of global risk, with increased European policy uncertainty only having a negative impact on bond inflows into EMEs when global risk is high. For equity inflows, the level of country-specific sovereign default risk also matters for nonlinearities.Finally, given the dependence of some commodity exporters to Chinese investment-led growth policies, we assess the potential impact of a Chinese hard-landing. According to our estimates, Latin American countries would be hardest hit, followed by Asia (ex. China); advanced economies would be less affected.

The goal of this dissertation is to present an investigation of the theoretical and empirical relationship between financial integration, capital flows and the exchange rate, and between financial integration, capital flows and financial crises for developing countries. The theoretical literature analysis developed in Chapter 1 clarifies that there is no consensus regarding the hypothesis that financial integration and capital flows stimulate economic growth and consumption smoothing, also showing that there are channels through which they can lead to financial crises and appreciation of the exchange rate. Chapter 2 develops an econometric investigation regarding the relationship between financial integration, capital flows and the exchange rate, for a sample of 63 developing countries. The econometric results do not suggest that there is a statistically significant relationship between financial integration and exchange rate, and, therefore, they do not support the hypothesis that financial integration causes currency appreciation. Besides, the results suggest that capital flows cause appreciation of the exchange rate, and there are evidences that the effect of the capital flows over the exchange rate depends on the level of financial development, which means that the effect of appreciation is gradually attenuated by higher levels of financial development. Chapter 3 develops an econometric investigation regarding the relationship between financial integration, capital flows and financial crises, for a sample of 53 developing countries. The econometric results suggest that financial integration and capital flows do not raise the probability of financial crises. / O objetivo desta dissertação é realizar uma investigação teórica e empírica acerca da relação entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e taxa de câmbio, e entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e crises financeiras para países em desenvolvimento. A análise da literatura teórica, realizada no Capítulo 1, explicita que não existe consenso quanto à hipótese de que a integração financeira e os fluxos de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico e a suavização do consumo, mostrando que existem canais por meio dos quais a integração financeira e os fluxos de capitais podem levar a crises financeiras e à apreciação cambial. No Capítulo 2, é feita uma investigação econométrica acerca das relações entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e taxa de câmbio, para uma amostra de 63 países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados econométricos não sugerem que há uma relação estatisticamente significativa entre integração financeira e taxa de câmbio e, portanto, não corroboram a hipótese de que a integração financeira cause apreciação cambial. Além disso, os resultados sugerem que os fluxos de capitais causam apreciação cambial, e há evidências de que o efeito dos fluxos de capitais sobre a taxa de câmbio real efetiva dependem do nível de desenvolvimento financeiro, sugerindo que o efeito de apreciação da taxa de câmbio real efetiva é gradativamente atenuado ou revertido à medida que os países apresentam níveis mais elevados de desenvolvimento financeiro. No Capítulo 3 é feita uma investigação econométrica acerca das relações entre integração financeira, fluxos de capitais e crises financeiras, para uma amostra de 53 países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que a integração financeira e os fluxos de capitais não aumentam a probabilidade de crises financeiras. / Mestre em Economia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The aim of this work is to perform a theoretical and empirical research on the relationships between: i) financial openness, capital flows and accumulation of capital, and; ii) financial openness, capital flows and total factor productivity. The Chapter 1 does a presentation and discussion of the theoretical literature and shows that there is no consensus within the conventional approach that financial openness and capital flows stimulate the accumulation of capital and the growth of total factor productivity of developing economies. The Chapter 2, in turn, presents and discusses the empirical literature on: i) financial openness, capital flows and economic growth, and; ii) financial openness, capital flows, capital accumulation and total factor productivity. Furthermore, the chapter analyzes, using descriptive statistics, some stylized facts associated with the behavior of financial openness, capital flows, capital accumulation and total factor productivity for a set of up to 81 countries, 22 developed and 59 in development. The Chapter 3, finally, conducts an econometric research on the relationships between: i) financial openness, capital accumulation and total factor productivity, and; ii) capital flows, capital accumulation and total factor productivity. The sample includes 59 developing countries. The results suggest, in general, that: i) there is no evidence that financial openness stimulates capital accumulation or productivity growth; ii) there is no systematic evidence that the effect of financial openness on capital accumulation and productivity depends on the institutional and financial levels of development of economies; iii) there is no systematic evidence that capital flows stimulates the accumulation of capital and the productivity growth, and; iv) there are quite flimsy evidence that the effect of capital flows on capital accumulation and productivity depends on the institutional and financial development level of the countries, so that a higher level of institutional and financial development reduces the positive effect of capital flows. / O objetivo desta dissertação é realizar uma investigação teórica e empírica acerca das relações entre: i) abertura financeira, fluxos de capitais e acumulação de capital, e; ii) abertura financeira, fluxos de capitais e produtividade total dos fatores. O Capítulo 1 faz uma apresentação e discussão da literatura teórica e mostra que não há consenso, dentro da abordagem convencional, de que a abertura financeira e os fluxos de capitais estimulam a acumulação de capital e o crescimento da produtividade total dos fatores das economias em desenvolvimento. O Capítulo 2, por sua vez, apresenta e discute a literatura empírica sobre: i) abertura financeira, fluxos de capital e crescimento econômico, e; ii) abertura financeira, fluxos de capitais, acumulação de capital e produtividade total dos fatores. Ademais, o capítulo analisa, por meio de estatística descritiva, alguns fatos estilizados associados ao comportamento da abertura financeira, dos fluxos de capitais, da acumulação de capital e da produtividade total dos fatores para um conjunto de até 81 países, 22 desenvolvidos e 59 em desenvolvimento. O Capítulo 3, por fim, realiza uma investigação econométrica acerca das relações entre: i) abertura financeira, acumulação de capital e produtividade total dos fatores, e; ii) fluxos de capitais, acumulação de capital e produtividade total dos fatores. A amostra contempla 59 países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados encontrados sugerem, em geral, que: i) não há evidências de que a abertura financeira estimula a acumulação de capital nem o crescimento da produtividade; ii) não há evidências sistemáticas de que o efeito da abertura financeira sobre a acumulação de capital e produtividade depende dos níveis de desenvolvimento institucional e financeiro das economias; iii) não há evidências sistemáticas de que os fluxos de capitais estimulam a acumulação de capital e a produtividade, e; iv) há evidências bastante frágeis de que o efeito dos fluxos de capitais sobre a acumulação de capital e produtividade depende do nível de desenvolvimento institucional e financeiro dos países, de maneira que um maior nível de desenvolvimento institucional e financeiro atenua o efeito positivo dos fluxos de capitais. / Mestre em Economia

Background: This paper examines contemporary changes and challenges within the Swedish private equity industry and reasons of their existence. Our research stems from the past years’ industry reports pointing out substantial inflows of capital on financial markets as one of the drivers behind high valuations and extended holding periods. Aim: The aim of this paper was to examine and analyse changes on the Swedish private equity market and how Swedish private equity participants experience how demand from investors have transformed and affected the industry. Completion: For this paper, we conducted semi-structured interviews with twelve actors at twelve different private equity firms operating on the Swedish private equity market. The participants were asked about their experiences regarding changes within the Swedish private equity market. Results: Through in-depth interviews we found that there are different views on whether there is too much capital on the private equity market. Frequent opinions were that demand for private equity investments from limited partners have increased, successful general partners see greater access to funding, the funds have increased in size, holding periods have extended and competition for portfolio companies has increased. We also found that some general partners think that the industry is at the top of a private equity cycle and faces a correction in the near future. / Bakgrund: Denna uppsats undersöker samtida förändringar och utmaningar i den svenska private equity-branschen samt orsaken till att dessa finns. Vår undersökning utgår från de senaste årens branschrapporter som pekar ut kraftiga kapitalinflöden på finansiella marknader som en av drivkrafterna bakom höga bolagsvärderingar och allt längre innehavsperioder. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats var att undersöka och analysera förändringar på den svenska private equity-marknaden och hur svenska private equity-aktörer upplever att efterfrågan från investerare har förändrats och påverkat sektorn. Genomförande: För studien har vi genomfört semistrukturerade intervjuer med tolv aktörer på tolv olika private equity-bolag verksamma på den svenska private equity- marknaden. De medverkande tillfrågades om hur de upplever förändringar på den svenska private equity-marknaden. Resultat: Genom djupgående intervjuer fann vi att det råder delade meningar om huruvida det finns för mycket kapital på private equity-marknaden. Återkommande åsikter var att efterfrågan på private equity-investeringar hos limited partners har ökat, att framgångsrika general partners har lättare att få finansiering till sina fonder, att fonderna har vuxit i storlek, innehavsperioderna har förlängts och konkurrensen om portföljbolag har ökat. Vi fann även att vissa general partners anser att branschen befinner i toppen av en private equity-cykel och står inför en korrigering inom en snar framtid.

The objective of the study is to establish how original financial integration could be attained in southern Africa in order to attract more foreign investment and develop a financially robust and stable region in the southern part of Africa; also to deal with the challenges, risks and remedies of prospective future financial crises. Financial markets are rapidly integrating into a single global market. Developing countries of various regions are drawn into the process with little choice, and without having sound financial infrastructure and policies in place. It is against this background that countries and regions of global integration choose policies that would benefit their regional economy and avert potential economic shock. The challenges posed to countries and regions by the progressive global integration of financial markets are becoming more urgent by the day. These challenges need to be addressed more effectively, either nationally or regionally, as demonstrated by the 1998 financial turmoil in Asia. Private capital flows are becoming intra regionally concentrated, particularly in the USA, Europe, Asia and Latin America. Be that as it may, failure in one market is likely to have immediate and large regional repercussions. Globalisation also marginalises Africa and other Least Developed Countries (LDC), leaving them more impoverished and with greater disparities in terms of income, GDP and FDI. Regional financial integration has to be efficient and sound in order to prevent or contain currency and capital market crises in the southern African region. This study identifies macro economic challenges and risks associated with financial integration. Recommendations are made about methodologies of addressing these issues in order to realise the benefits of regional financial integration in southern Africa, which could be a building block in realising the dream of an African Monetary Union. The study contributes greatly to the debate around the most appropriate criteria that are to be met by the SADC countries, before monetary integration can become a reality. A comparison of the benchmark macro economic convergence criteria of the EU and of the African Monetary Union is done and the performance of SADC countries is assessed in terms of both sets of benchmarks. Southern African states are found to not even be at a comparable level with regard to the EU targets of 1997. The thesis is also critical to the impact of the political instability in the SADC region on prospective monetary integration. Most importantly, SADC would be at a permanent disadvantage and face a long-run depreciation of its common currency, should it continue to integrate financially at macro economic benchmark levels inferior to those of its major trading partner, the EU. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Economics / unrestricted

The text deals with monetary policy normalization in USA and its influence on cross-border capital flows to emerging markets. The first chapter provides basic economic theory of capital flows. Federal Reserve's monetary policy normalization is discussed in the second chapter, including its relation to international flows of capital. The last chapter analyzes monetary policy normalization influence on capital flows to three developing countries.

Le Luxembourg est le 3ème exportateur mondial de services financiers. Il figure parmi les pays qui accueillent le plus d’investissements directs en provenance de l’étranger, ce qui indique l’intensité de ses liens avec l’économie mondiale. Le but de ce travail est d’analyser l’influence éventuelle d’une économie mondiale caractérisée par l’interdépendance des marchés réels et financiers sur l’économie Luxembourgeoise. Chapitre 1 présente une analyse des interactions de l’économie Luxembourgeoise avec le monde extérieur. Le chapitre suivant est consacré à la revue de la littérature portant sur la modélisation de l’intermédiation financière au niveau macroéconomique, couvrant plusieurs types d’approches de modélisations. Enfin, le troisième chapitre comporte un modèle macroéconométrique multi-pays construit et analysé afin de simuler les scénarios plausibles. Le modèle y est présenté avec ses fondements théoriques, les résultats des simulations et une comparaison avec d’autres modèles. La nouveauté du modèle réside dans sa prise en compte du commerce international désagrégé en services financiers et autres, et des investissements internationaux en portefeuille avec leurs flux de titres et de capitaux, ainsi que de leur impact sur la croissance économique. Les résultats des simulations montrent que ce cadre d’analyse donne parfois des résultats différents par rapport aux modèles standards. Nombre de scénarios qui ne peuvent être simulés par d’autres modèles, tels que la baisse des flux internationaux d’investissements de portefeuille, sont également analysés et confirment la forte vulnérabilité du Luxembourg aux chocs externes qui ont lieu sur les marchés financiers. / Luxembourg is world’s third financial services exporter and one of world’s top recipients of foreign direct investment in value as well as per capita terms, which highlight its strong linkages with world economy. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze possible outcomes for the very small and very open economy of Luxembourg in a world environment, where real and financial markets affect each other. To better understand the characteristics of the economy and economic mechanisms behind them, a thorough analysis with emphasis put on the interactions with the outside world based on available data and relevant literature is presented (Chapter 1). Subsequently a survey of literature devoted to modeling financial intermediation at macroeconomic level across various types of modeling approaches is offered (Chapter 2). Finally, a multi-country macroeconometric model built to simulate possible scenarios is presented and analyzed (Chapter 3) with its theoretical background, simulations’ results and comparison with other models. The model is novel in that it accounts for international trade disaggregated into financial services and the rest, and international portfolio investment in securities and equity flows, that have a significant impact on the country’s economic growth. Simulations’ results show that such a framework generates sometimes markedly different results than more standard models. A number of scenarios which cannot be simulated in other models, such as American stock market fall or a decrease in international portfolio flows, are also analyzed and confirm the high vulnerability of Luxembourg economy to external shocks originating in financial markets.

La presente investigación busca identificar el efecto del riesgo país, medido como el índice EMBI, en conjunto con un grupo de variables macroeconómicas, sobre la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) y la Inversión Extranjera de Cartera (IEC) en el Perú. Luego de asegurar la estacionariedad y no autocorrelación de las series de datos mediante transformaciones matemáticas, se aplica la metodología de Vectores Autoregresivos VAR con la finalidad de hallar las variables que explican el desempeño de la IED e IEC durante el periodo comprendido entre los años 2000 y 2020. Los resultados sugieren que el índice EMBI mantiene en el tiempo un efecto negativo sobre la IEC, mientras que en el caso de la IED se observa un efecto positivo durante dos primeros trimestres, el cual posteriormente se diluye hasta disiparse en su totalidad. / This research seeks to identify the effect of country risk, measured as the EMBI Index, together with a group of macroeconomic variables, on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in Peru. After ensuring the stationarity and non-autocorrelation of the data series through mathematical transformations, the VAR Autoregressive Vectors methodology is applied in order to find the variables that explain the performance of FDI and FPI during the period between 2000 and 2020. The results suggest that the EMBI index maintains a negative effect on the IEC over time, while in the case of FDI a positive effect is observed during the first two quarters, which subsequently dissipates until it dissipates in its entirety. / Trabajo de investigación

[pt] Motivados pela posição de destaque do real brasileiro entre uma das moedas mais depreciadas em relação aos seus pares emergentes em meados de 2020, potencialmente fomentada pela expressiva evasão de capitais observada no decorrer da pandemia COVID-19 que culminou com um déficit no mercado cambial, realizamos previsões um trimestre a frente para os fluxos de capitais líquidos para o Brasil através de técnicas de machine learning, utilizando modelos de regularização para seleção das variáveis importantes. Os fluxos são obtidos a partir de dados trimestrais do balanço de pagamentos, englobando 2004:T1 a 2021:T1. Os modelos propostos, tanto LASSO quanto adaLASSO + OLS, foram capazes de gerar previsões fora da amostra melhores que o modelo de benchmark, AR. Apesar disso, quando comparados entre si, não podemos rejeitar a hipótese nula de que os modelos propostos possuem a mesma precisão de previsão. / [en] Motivated by the prominent position of the Brazilian real among the most depreciated currencies in comparison with its emerging peers in mid-2020, potentially fueled by the significant capital outflow observed during the COVID19 pandemic that resulted in a deficit in the foreign exchange market, we make one quarter-ahead forecast for net capital flows to Brazil through machine learning techniques, using shrinkage methods to select important variables. These flows are computed from quarterly balance of payments data from 2004:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The proposed models, both LASSO and adaLASSO + OLS, were able to generate better out-of-sample forecasts than the benchmark model, AR. Nevertheless, when compared to each other, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the proposed models have the same forecast accuracy.