No description available.

No description available.

This dissertation comprises three essays on macroeconomic impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI). The first essay analyses the impact of FDI on the growth rate of total factor productivity of host countries. The essay focuses on 77 low- and middle-income countries and is based on balanced panel data for the period 1980-2008. The system GMM and common correlated effects (CCE) panel data methods are applied to estimate the models. Estimated coefficients show that FDI does not have any significant impact on the growth rate and the levels of TFP. The second essay investigates the relationship between FDI and domestic investment focusing on low- and middle-income countries, and using panel data for the period 1980-2012. It applies common parameter and heterogeneous parameter, static and dynamic, single equation and simultaneous equation panel data econometric techniques to study the relationship. Empirical findings suggest that FDI crowds our domestic investment. Our estimated coefficients also suggest that countries that have weak institutions, less developed financial systems, less human capital, less developed infrastructure, or economies that are more open, are more exposed to foreign competition and experience stronger crowding out from inward FDI. In the third essay, the influence of capital flows on the real exchange rate of recipient countries is analysed. The influence of three important capital flows, viz. foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign aid, and remittances, are assessed on the real exchange rate, using data for 45 middle- and low-income countries for the period 1980–2013. Both heterogeneous and homogeneous panel data methods are applied to estimate the real exchange rate models. The estimated coefficients of these models imply that foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances do not influence the real exchange rate. Aid tends to depreciate the real exchange rate. Findings also suggest that financial development does not influence the exchange rate impact of aid in our sample countries. The study further finds that while aid tends to increase real exchange rate volatility, FDI and remittances do not have any robust influence on volatility. / February 2017

[pt] O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar empiricamente uma possível relação de causalidade entre fluxos de capitais (e abertura financeira de um modo geral) e o crescimento econômico de longo prazo dos países. Utilizando uma amostra de 70 países para o período de 1970-2004 foram realizadas uma série de estimações econométricas em painel em vista de se medir o impacto de um fluxo mais elevado de capitais sobre a produtividade das economias. Uma vez que a literatura documenta uma possível assimetria neste efeito, no sentido de que capitais externos devem ser benéficos somente para países que já possuem uma capacidade absorciva mínima, ou seja, que são capazes de converter de forma eficaz esses capitais para investimentos produtivos que alavancam o crescimento, utilizamos termos de interações nas regressões. Mais especificamente testou-se o papel que o aprofundamento financeiro de um país, medido como a razão do volume de crédito doméstico privado sobre o PIB, desempenha nesta relação entre fluxos de capitais e crescimento. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, para economias com razão crédito/PIB maior que um nível de threshold que varia entre 25 e 30%, o impacto de maiores fluxos de capitais é positivo e significante. Para abaixo desse threshold o impacto é negativo. Uma vez que fluxos excessivos de capitais externos exercem forte pressão de apreciação da taxa real de câmbio de um país, e que tal apreciação pode ser maléfica ao crescimento da produtividade uma vez que impõe perdas significantes aos setores de bens tradables, pode ocorrer que países com baixo aprofundamento financeiro cresceram a taxas menores em resultado de maiores fluxos de capitais devido a uma apreciação excessiva do câmbio real. No entanto, as estimações das regressões entre desalinhamentos da taxa real de câmbio e crescimento apontam um efeito significante e negativo do ponto de vista estatístico, porém insignificante do ponto de vista econômico. / [en] The objective of this paper is to investigate empirically a possible causal relation between capital flows (and financial openess in a widely fashion) and long run economic growth. With a sample of 70 countries in the period ranging from 1970 to 2004 we estimated econometric panels to test for the presence of a productivity growth enhancing effect of higher capital flows. Since the literature points out an assimetric effect in the sense that foreign capital is desirable only for countries which have attained a certain level of absorptive capacity, that means, which are more able to convert them to productive capital, interactive terms were included in the regressions. More specifically, we tested the role of the financial depth, measured as the ratio of domestic private credit over GDP, on the relationship between capital flows and growth. The results obtained show that economies which have already attained a certain ratio of credit over GDP greater than a threshold that varies between 25% and 30% has a positive and significant impact of capital flows on growth. Below this threshold, this impact is negative. Since excessive capital flows exerts a pressure of strong appreciation of the real exchange rate of a country and that appreciation may be negative to productivity growth since it imposes significant losses to tradables sectors, it is possible that countries with a low financial depth had grown less because of the effects of appreciation of the exchange rate caused by capital flows. However, the regression estimates between real exchange rate misalignments and growth show a negative significant effect by a statistical standpoint but insignificant by an economic standpoint.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernando Gdikian.pdf: 1585526 bytes, checksum: 4b937d6d1d508a3a63c84234542e5606 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-06-09 / This work aims to analyze the evolution of the external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy in the range 2001 to 2011, specifically from the perspective of monetary-financial sphere. The hypothesis is that external vulnerability tends to intensify in the long run when the current account deficits are financed with foreign capital and could become a barrier to economic development. Was observed with the data analysis of the balance of payments and international investment position of an improvement in the situation above external vulnerability by accumulating reserves. However, with the acceleration of economic growth in the mid-2000s, the structural external vulnerability manifested by deteriorating current account and the increase in net foreign liabilities / Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a evolução da vulnerabilidade externa da economia brasileira no intervalo de 2001 até 2011, especificamente sob a ótica da esfera monetário-financeira. A hipótese é que a vulnerabilidade externa tende a intensificar-se no longo prazo quando os déficits em transações correntes são financiados com capital estrangeiro, podendo vir a transformar-se numa barreira ao desenvolvimento econômico. Observou-se com a análise dos dados do balanço de pagamentos e da posição internacional de investimentos que houve melhora na vulnerabilidade externa conjuntural sobretudo pelo acúmulo de reservas. Entretanto, com a aceleração do crescimento econômico em meados dos anos 2000, a vulnerabilidade externa estrutural manifestou-se através da deterioração das transações correntes e do aumento do passivo externo líquido

Submitted by CARLA MARIA GOULART DE MORAES (carlagm) on 2015-04-09T15:25:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaelGiaretta.pdf: 506222 bytes, checksum: e353f74cbe4c2189a43a03748eb4b9cc (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-09T15:25:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RafaelGiaretta.pdf: 506222 bytes, checksum: e353f74cbe4c2189a43a03748eb4b9cc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Nenhuma / Este estudo teve o objetivo de analisar a integração financeira entre o Brasil e o mercado internacional no período de 2002 a junho de 2010. A metodologia empregada foi a revisão teórica e empírica sobre o processo de integração financeira, o fluxo de capitais para o Brasil e a paridade de juros. Os principais resultados são que o Brasil se tornou mais integrado ao mercado internacional durante o período analisado, não somente pelo aumento do volume comercial, mas também pela maior integração financeira. / The present study had the objective to analyze the financial integration between Brazil and the international market from 2002 to June 2010. The methodology used was a review theoretical and empirical the process about financial integration, capital flows to Brazil and the rate of interest. The main results are that Brazil has become more integrated into the international market during the period analyzed, not only by increasing the volume of trade, but also by most financial integration.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-03-17T11:54:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Andreia Marques Duarte.pdf: 1507570 bytes, checksum: 2c878c80efbb6b35d05ed823e6fdd271 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-17T11:54:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Andreia Marques Duarte.pdf: 1507570 bytes, checksum: 2c878c80efbb6b35d05ed823e6fdd271 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-09 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This thesis concerns about the main factors that had influenced capital flows to Brazil during the period 2008-2015, particularly the foreign portfolio investment flows. Highlighting within the internal factors the difference between interest rates, the international reserves increasement and the rise up on investment grade by Credit Rating Agencies, and among external factors, the increase in international liquidity provided by the monetary easing policies adopted in the developed countries. Will be unveiled the context of the international financial crisis that began in the United States in mid-2007 and the repercussion and impacts for Brazil in terms of external financial fragilization from the perspective of Minsky's Financial Fragility Hypothesis / O presente trabalho analisa os principais fatores que exerceram influência sobre os fluxos de capitais direcionados ao Brasil ao longo do período 2008-2015, particularmente os fluxos de investimento estrangeiro em portfólio. Destacam-se dentre os fatores internos o diferencial da taxa de juros, o aumento das reservas internacionais e a elevação ao grau de investimento pelas agências de classificação de risco e entre os fatores externos a ampliação da liquidez internacional propiciada pelas políticas de flexibilização monetária adotadas nos países centrais. Será desvelada a contextualização da crise financeira internacional, iniciada nos Estados Unidos em meados de 2007 e a repercussão e impactos para o Brasil em termos de fragilização financeira externa sob a ótica da Hipótese da Fragilidade Financeira de Minsky

Venture capital (VC), a historically American industry, has been in the process of globalizing in recent years. International venture capital flows (investing outside of one’s own country) have grown substantially over the past 30 years and even more dramatically in just the past decade. Previous research has mostly highlighted the determinants of where capital flows. However, research on the factors in a VC’s home country that affect investments abroad has been underdeveloped. To address this gap, this paper explores the impact of home country economic conditions on VCs’ propensity to invest abroad. I find that higher interest rates and economic wellbeing in a country (as measured by GDP growth and stock market capitalization to GDP) are associated with less deal flow abroad and, that higher foreign exchange rates are related to greater deal flow. I also note an interesting divergence in the role of these factors between VCs located in countries that exhibit different levels of international investing experience. My research indicates that VCs’ home country economic conditions do play a role in their decisions to invest abroad and suggests that these considerations may be different depending on the experience level of the VC industry in the firm’s country.

La mise en place de la politique monétaire non conventionnelle en 2008 aux États-Unis a coïncidé avec d'importants mouvements de capitaux et de taux de change dans les pays émergents. Ces derniers ont accusé la banque centrale américaine d'adopter une politique « d'appauvrissement du voisin » et de créer ces effets de report. En 2013, à la suite de l'annonce du ralentissement graduel du rythme de cette politique monétaire, certains pays émergents ont subi d'importantes crises financières. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse se propose d'étudier dans quelle mesure la politique monétaire non conventionnelle de la Réserve fédérale américaine a induit des effets de report en termes de mouvements de capitaux et de taux de change. Alors que la normalisation de cette politique monétaire est entamée, il est primordial de comprendre les implications internationales des décisions de la Réserve fédérale pour pouvoir contenir les risques potentiels. Tout d'abord, nous étudions les mécanismes et leurs effets sur les pays émergents dans le cadre d'une revue de la littérature. Nous montrons que la politique monétaire de la Réserve fédérale a bien été responsable d'effets de report. Ensuite, nous révélons, de façon empirique, que les conséquences présentent une certaine hétérogénéité dans le temps, en fonction des modalités d'intervention de la banque centrale américaine, ainsi que selon les pays. Nous établissons qu'il n'y a pas de réelle symétrie entre la phase expansionniste et celle de normalisation. De ce fait, la normalisation n'apparaît pas entrainer des reflux de capitaux dans les pays émergents. Finalement, nous nous intéressons aux moyens dont disposent les pays émergents pour limiter les effets de report. Nous montrons que les contrôles de capitaux et les politiques macroprudentielles peuvent permettre de réduire les mouvements de capitaux. Plus précisément, l'efficacité des contrôles de capitaux est conditionnée par leur accumulation. Plus le pays en est doté, plus il limite les effets de report. L'efficacité de la politique macroprudentielle dépend quant à elle de la qualité des institutions dans le pays émergent et de l'intensité de la politique monétaire américaine. / The implementation of the U.S. unconventional monetary policy in 2008 coincided with massive capital inflows and exchange rate appreciation for emerging markets. They implicate the Federal Reserve to pursue a « Beggar-thy-neighbor » policy and to create spillovers. In 2013, following the announcement of the « Tapering », some emerging markets suffered from significant financial crises. In this context, this thesis intends to study how the U.S. unconventional monetary policy led to capital flows and exchange rate movements spillovers. As the normalization of this monetary policy is initiated, understanding the international implications of the Federal Reserve's decisions is essential to contain potential risks. For this purpose, we firstly study mechanisms and their impacts on emerging countries by a literature review. We show that the Fed monetary policy caused capital flows and exchange rate spillovers in the last decade. Then, we reveal empirically that the impacts exhibit heterogeneity over time, depend on implementation modalities of the U.S. central bank as well as on the countries. We establish that there is no real symmetrical impacts between accommodative and normalization periods. As a result, the normalization would not lead to capital outflows in emerging countries. Finally, we examine the means that emerging countries can adopt to limit spillovers. We demonstrate that capital controls and macroprudential policies can be efficient to reduce capital inflows. More precisely, the effectiveness of capital controls is conditioned by their accumulation. The more the country adopts it, the more it limits spillovers. Considering macroprudential policies, the intensity of the U.S. monetary policy and the quality of the emerging countries' institutions are two main determinants of their effectiveness.

<p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2008</p>