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Problematika příčinné souvislosti ve sporech o náhradu škody na zdraví / The issue of causal link in disputes over compensation of damage to healthSvobodová, Kamila January 2013 (has links)
This thesis deals with the issue of causation in disputes relating to compensation of damage to health. The aim of this work is to give a comprehensive interpretation of this issue. The work presents possible approaches of proving a causality between illegal misconduct during treatment and the damage caused to a patient. In medico-legal disputes patient must carry the burden of proof. It also compares the European legislation in relation to the necessary degree of proof with the main focus on German legislation and institutes created by the case law of German courts. Furthermore it presents the interpretation of causality in terms of the Principles of European Tort Law. The work deals marginally with certain aspects of proceedings concerning compensation of damage to health and expert assessment.
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Forage des données et formalisation des connaissances sur un accident : Le cas Deepwater Horizon / Data drilling and formalization of knowledge related to an accident : The Deepwater Horizon caseEude, Thibaut 18 December 2018 (has links)
Le forage de données, méthode et moyens développés dans cette thèse, redéfinit le processus d’extraction de données, de la formalisation de la connaissance et de son enrichissement notamment dans le cadre de l’élucidation d’évènements qui n’ont pas ou peu été documentés. L’accident de la plateforme de forage Deepwater Horizon, opérée pour le compte de BP dans le Golfe du Mexique et victime d’un blowout le 20 avril 2010, sera notre étude de cas pour la mise en place de notre preuve de concept de forage de données. Cet accident est le résultat d’un décalage inédit entre l’état de l’art des heuristiques des ingénieurs de forage et celui des ingénieurs antipollution. La perte de contrôle du puits MC 252-1 est donc une faillite d’ingénierie et il faudra quatre-vingt-sept jours à l’équipe d’intervention pour reprendre le contrôle du puits devenu sauvage et stopper ainsi la pollution. Deepwater Horizon est en ce sens un cas d’ingénierie en situation extrême, tel que défini par Guarnieri et Travadel.Nous proposons d’abord de revenir sur le concept général d’accident au moyen d’une analyse linguistique poussée présentant les espaces sémantiques dans lesquels se situe l’accident. Cela permet d’enrichir son « noyau de sens » et l’élargissement de l’acception commune de sa définition.Puis, nous amenons que la revue de littérature doit être systématiquement appuyée par une assistance algorithmique pour traiter les données compte tenu du volume disponible, de l’hétérogénéité des sources et des impératifs d’exigences de qualité et de pertinence. En effet, plus de huit cent articles scientifiques mentionnant cet accident ont été publiés à ce jour et une vingtaine de rapports d’enquêtes, constituant notre matériau de recherche, ont été produits. Notre méthode montre les limites des modèles d’accidents face à un cas comme Deepwater Horizon et l’impérieuse nécessité de rechercher un moyen de formalisation adéquat de la connaissance.De ce constat, l’utilisation des ontologies de haut niveau doit être encouragée. L’ontologie DOLCE a montré son grand intérêt dans la formalisation des connaissances à propos de cet accident et a permis notamment d’élucider très précisément une prise de décision à un moment critique de l’intervention. La population, la création d’instances, est le coeur de l’exploitation de l’ontologie et son principal intérêt mais le processus est encore très largement manuel et non exempts d’erreurs. Cette thèse propose une réponse partielle à ce problème par un algorithme NER original de population automatique d’une ontologie.Enfin, l’étude des accidents n’échappe pas à la détermination des causes et à la réflexion sur les « faits socialement construits ». Cette thèse propose les plans originaux d’un « pipeline sémantique » construit à l’aide d’une série d’algorithmes qui permet d’extraire la causalité exprimée dans un document et de produire un graphe représentant ainsi le « cheminement causal » sous-jacent au document. On comprend l’intérêt pour la recherche scientifique ou industrielle de la mise en lumière ainsi créée du raisonnement afférent de l’équipe d’enquête. Pour cela, ces travaux exploitent les avancées en Machine Learning et Question Answering et en particulier les outils Natural Language Processing.Cette thèse est un travail d’assembleur, d’architecte, qui amène à la fois un regard premier sur le cas Deepwater Horizon et propose le forage des données, une méthode et des moyens originaux pour aborder un évènement, afin de faire émerger du matériau de recherche des réponses à des questionnements qui échappaient jusqu’alors à la compréhension. / Data drilling, the method and means developed in this thesis, redefines the process of data extraction, the formalization of knowledge and its enrichment, particularly in the context of the elucidation of events that have not or only slightly been documented. The Deepwater Horizon disaster, the drilling platform operated for BP in the Gulf of Mexico that suffered a blowout on April 20, 2010, will be our case study for the implementation of our proof of concept for data drilling. This accident is the result of an unprecedented discrepancy between the state of the art of drilling engineers' heuristics and that of pollution response engineers. The loss of control of the MC 252-1 well is therefore an engineering failure and it will take the response party eighty-seven days to regain control of the wild well and halt the pollution. Deepwater Horizon is in this sense a case of engineering facing extreme situation, as defined by Guarnieri and Travadel.First, we propose to return to the overall concept of accident by means of an in-depth linguistic analysis presenting the semantic spaces in which the accident takes place. This makes it possible to enrich its "core meaning" and broaden the shared acceptance of its definition.Then, we bring that the literature review must be systematically supported by algorithmic assistance to process the data taking into account the available volume, the heterogeneity of the sources and the requirements of quality and relevance standards. In fact, more than eight hundred scientific articles mentioning this accident have been published to date and some twenty investigation reports, constituting our research material, have been produced. Our method demonstrates the limitations of accident models when dealing with a case like Deepwater Horizon and the urgent need to look for an appropriate way to formalize knowledge.As a result, the use of upper-level ontologies should be encouraged. The DOLCE ontology has shown its great interest in formalizing knowledge about this accident and especially in elucidating very accurately a decision-making process at a critical moment of the intervention. The population, the creation of instances, is the heart of the exploitation of ontology and its main interest, but the process is still largely manual and not without mistakes. This thesis proposes a partial answer to this problem by an original NER algorithm for the automatic population of an ontology.Finally, the study of accidents involves determining the causes and examining "socially constructed facts". This thesis presents the original plans of a "semantic pipeline" built with a series of algorithms that extract the expressed causality in a document and produce a graph that represents the "causal path" underlying the document. It is significant for scientific or industrial research to highlight the reasoning behind the findings of the investigation team. To do this, this work leverages developments in Machine Learning and Question Answering and especially the Natural Language Processing tools.As a conclusion, this thesis is a work of a fitter, an architect, which offers both a prime insight into the Deepwater Horizon case and proposes the data drilling, an original method and means to address an event, in order to uncover answers from the research material for questions that had previously escaped understanding.
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Impacto tributario de los principales gastos de promoción reparables y su relación con el principio de causalidad en los laboratorios farmacéuticos trasnacionales de Lima Metropolitana 2017 / Tax impact of the main repairable promotion expenses and their relationship with the principle of causality in the transnational pharmaceutical laboratories of Metropolitan Lima 2017De La Cruz Silvestre, Nieves, Begazo Herrera, Cindy Scarlett 30 December 2018 (has links)
La presente investigación tiene por objetivo evaluar el impacto tributario de los principales gastos de promoción reparables y su relación con el principio de causalidad aplicado en los laboratorios farmacéuticos trasnacionales de Lima Metropolitana durante el ejercicio fiscal 2017. Al respecto, existen distintas posiciones por parte de la Administración Tributaria y de los entes jurisprudenciales en cuanto al tratamiento tributario de tales gastos, lo cual ha originado que los contribuyentes del sector farmacéutico no tengan una posición muy clara sobre este tema. Por ello, este estudio busca aclarar y dar a conocer cuáles son los gastos de promoción observados por la Administración Tributaria que podrían ser reparables, así como los criterios y pautas para sustentar dichos gastos como “escudo fiscal” de los laboratorios farmacéuticos frente a un proceso de fiscalización. En ese sentido, se ha recurrido al análisis de diferentes jurisprudencias que tratan sobre la deducibilidad de tales gastos y también se tomaron en cuenta las opiniones de gerentes y socios del área tributaria de las principales firmas auditoras a nivel mundial, estudios de abogados y del gremio ALAFARPE (Asociación Nacional de Laboratorios Farmacéuticos). Todo ello ha permitido concluir, que los gastos de promoción son uno de los más importantes para este tipo de negocio y que los principales gastos son las muestras médicas, congresos y eventos médicos. Para el caso de las muestras médicas, podrían ser deducibles si se cuenta con todos los sustentos para su acreditación. Por otro lado, para los congresos y eventos médicos la Administración Tributaria no acepta dicho gasto, ya que la principal controversia de Sunat por este gasto es el principio de causalidad cuestionando la necesidad de tal gasto. Sin embargo, los expertos del tema opinan que, si deberían ser deducibles, ya que estos si cumplen con el principio de causalidad. / The present investigation evaluates the tax impact of the main repairable promotion expenses and its relation with the principle of causality applied in transnational pharmaceutical laboratories of Metropolitan Lima in the period of 2017. There are different positions between the Peruvian Tax Administration and the jurisprudential organisms regarding the tax treatment of such expenses, which has caused that the contributors of the pharmaceutical sector don´t, have a very clear position on this subject. Therefore, this study seeks to clarify the promotional costs that are observe for the Peruvian Tax Administration that could be deductible, as well as the criteria and guidelines to support such expenses as "tax shield" of pharmaceutical laboratories facing an audit process. In this sense, an analysis of different jurisprudences that deal with the deductibility of such expenses and the different opinions of manager and partner of tax area in the leading audit firms world-wide, law firms and the ALAFARPE association (National Association of Pharmaceutical Laboratories). All this has allowed to conclude that the promotion expenses are one of the most important in the determination of Income Tax and are mainly the expenses of medical samples, congresses and medical events. In the case of medical samples, it could be deductible if all the proofs are available for their accreditation. Regarding congresses and medical events, the Tax Administration does not accept this expense, since the main controversy of Sunat by this expense is the principle of causality questioning the need for such expense. However, the experts on this matter believe that they should be deductible since those comply with the principle of causality. / Tesis
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Modelagem de interação entre sinais cinemáticos durante o exercício / Interaction modeling among kinematic signals during exerciseNakashima, Giovana Yuko 12 April 2018 (has links)
Os programas de computador têm apoiado o estudo de sistemas biomédicos em que um volume considerável de dados são empregados. Na biomecânica, a análise das influências entre as articulações pode melhorar o conhecimento das lesões relacionadas à corrida associadas ao uso excessivo durante a atividade de corrida. Compreender os padrões de interação entre diferentes articulações anatômicas, durante o movimento, pode contribuir para o aprimoramento de programas de treinamento, reabilitação e prevenção a lesões. Neste trabalho, um software personalizado foi desenvolvido para implementar a Coerência Parcial Direcionada (PDC), uma abordagem no domínio da freqüência da Causalidade de Granger (GC), adequado às especificidades da fisioterapia. Com entradas independentes e padronizadas, modularização e parametrização, as rotinas investigaram a direção de interação entre diferentes canais, registrando e salvando arquivos intermediários. Separados nos três planos anatômicos, sagital, frontal e transverso, foram utilizados dados cinemáticos para analisar as interações entre tornozelo, joelho, quadril, pelve e tronco durante a corrida. Três modificações de técnica de corrida foram abordadas: com aterrissagem iniciada com o antepé, com aumento de 10% na taxa de passo e com aumento de flexão de tronco, além da habitual. As análises foram realizadas para o ciclo completo (apoio e balanço) e com separação da fase de apoio, e revelaram que essas duas estratégias de processamento são complementares. Comparando as influências proximal e distal, os procedimentos sugeriram uma predominância das interações proximal a distal, mostrando uma origem central de movimentos. Dessa forma, destaca-se a relevância em controlar e fortalecer tronco e quadril para a minimização de lesões. Considerando os resultados e a oportunidade de configuração, o software pode ser empregado para estudar outras articulações e aplicações, bem como evoluir para um sistema automatizado de apoio à decisão. / Computer programs have supported the study of biomedical systems in which a considerable amount of data is employed. In biomechanics, analysis of influences between joints can improve the knowledge of the Running-Related-Injuries (RRI) associated to overuse during running activity. Understanding the patterns of interaction among anatomical joints during movement can contribute to the improvement of training, rehabilitation and injury prevention programs. In this work, a customized software was developed to implement Partial Directed Coherence (PDC), an approach in the frequency domain of Granger Causality (GC), adapted to the physical therapy specificities. With independent and standardized inputs, modularization and parameterization, the routines investigated the interaction direction between different channels, logging and saving intermediate files. Separated in the three anatomical planes, sagittal, frontal and transverse, kinematic data were employed to analyze the interactions between ankle, knee, hip, pelvis and trunk during running. Three running technique modifications were addressed: forefoot strike landing pattern, increasing 10% of the step rate and increasing trunk flexion, in addition to usual running. The analyzes were performed for the complete cycle (stance and swing) and with separation of the stance phase, and revealed that these two processing strategies are complementary. Comparing proximal and distal influences, procedures suggested a predominance of proximal to distal interactions, showing a central origin of movements. In this way, the importance of controlling and strengthening trunk and hip to minimize injuries is highlighted. Considering the results and the processing configuration opportunity, the software can be employed to study other joints and applications, as well as evolve to an automated decision support system.
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Desenvolvimento de modelos de causalidade com informações de QTLs para estudo do relacionamento de caracteres fenotípicos relativos à absorção de fósforo em milho / Development of causal models with QTL information to the study of relationship among traits associated with phosphorus uptake in maizeGianotto, Adriana Cheavegatti 26 March 2015 (has links)
Metodologias de mapeamento de QTLs modernas empregam abordagem multivariada e se beneficiam da matriz de covariâncias fenotípicas para melhorar as estimativas de localização e efeitos de QTLs. No entanto, a correlação fenotípica pode ser em parte atribuída às relações de causalidade entre os fenótipos e mesmo as abordagens de mapeamento de QTLs multivariadas atuais têm desconsiderado tais relacionamentos. Dentre as metodologias científicas desenvolvidas para o estudo da causalidade em dados observacionais, destacam-se os modelos de equações estruturais e os modelos gráficos. Neste trabalho, foi estudado um conjunto de caracteres fenotípicos relacionados à morfologia de raízes, absorção de fósforo e acúmulo de biomassa em uma população composta de 145 linhagens endogâmicas recombinantes (RILs) do programa de melhoramento de milho da EMBRAPA Milho e Sorgo. O mapeamento de QTLs para os caracteres fenotípicos foi realizado utilizando mapeamento de múltiplos intervalos univariado (MIM) e multivariado (MT-MIM). A análise MIM revelou QTLs afetando diâmetro de raízes, área de superfície de raízes finas, peso seco da parte aérea e concentração de fósforo na parte aérea e nas raízes. A análise MT-MIM revelou 12 QTLs, com diferentes padrões de pleiotropia, com efeitos marginais para as sete variáveis analisadas. Um modelo de relacionamento causal entre os caracteres fenotípicos foi desenvolvido utilizando conhecimento prévio e modelagem de equações estruturais. O modelo de equações estruturais apresentou fluxo unidirecional de causalidade entre as variáveis, com as variáveis de morfologia de raízes exercendo efeito sobre as variáveis de acúmulo de biomassa, que por sua vez, têm efeito sobre as variáveis de absorção de fósforo. A aplicação do algoritmo PC para a descoberta de causalidade automatizada baseada nos padrões de independências condicionais não foi capaz de orientar todas as relações de causalidade descobertas, porém revelou um relacionamento mais complexo que o modelo de equações estruturais, com potenciais ciclos de retroalimentação causais. O emprego de algoritmos de descoberta de causalidade baseados em informações de QTLs, chamados QDG e QPSO, permitiu a orientação de todos os relacionamentos de causalidade encontrados pelo algoritmo PC e confirmou a existência de dois ciclos vizinhos de relacionamento causais entre as variáveis estudadas. Como regra geral, os QTLs pleiotrópicos detectados pela metodologia MT-MIM apresentaram efeitos sobre caracteres fenotípicos alinhados causalmente nos modelos propostos pelos algoritmos PC e QDG, sugerindo que alguns dos QTLs detectados são na realidade efeitos indiretos de QTLs situados em posição mais elevada no modelo causal. O emprego da abordagem MT-MIM aliada à análise de causalidade permitiu melhor compreensão da arquitetura genética dos caracteres de morfologia de raiz, acumulação de biomassa e aquisição de fósforo em milho. / Modern QTL mapping approaches are multivariate and take advantage of the phenotypic covariance matrix to improve estimates of QTL positions and effects. However, phenotypic correlation can also be assigned to the causal relationship among phenotypes, and even modern multivariate QTL analysis does not take these relationships into account. Structural equation models and graphical models are the main methodologies to study causality from observational data. We studied a set of phenotypes related to root morphology, biomass accumulation and phosphorus acquisition in maize. These phenotypes were measured in a maize population from the EMBRAPA breeding program composed of 145 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from the crossing of two divergent lines for phosphorus acquisition efficiency. QTL mapping for the traits was performed using univariate (MIM) and multivariate (MT-MIM) multiple interval mapping. MIM analysis revealed QTL affecting root diameter, fine root surface area, shoot dry weight and root dry weight. MT-MIM analysis revealed 12 QTL with different pleiotropy patterns and QTL with marginal effects affecting all seven studied characters. A causal model for phenotype characters was developed using a priori knowledge and structural equation model techniques. The structural equation model presented an unidirectional causal flow among the variables, with root morphological traits exerting causal effects over biomass traits, which in turn cause phosphorus acquisition traits. Using PC algorithm for an automatic search of causal models based on conditional independence was not able to orient all discovered causal relationships among traits but revealed a more intricated relationship than the structural equation model, with potential causal feedback loops among the traits. Employing causal search algorithms based on QTL information (named QDG and QPSO) allowed the orientation of all causal relationships detected by PC algorithm and it has also confirmed the presence of two neighbor causal cycles among the studied traits. As a general rule, pleiotropic QTL detected by MT-MIM approach exerted effects over traits according to the causal model discovered by PC and QDG algorithms, suggesting that some of the QTL detected effects were indirect effects of QTL located upstream at the proposed causal model. Employing MT-MIM approach and causal analysis has allowed a better comprehension of genetic architecture underlying root morphology, biomass accumulation and phosphorus acquisition traits in maize.
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Atividade física e câncer: evidências epidemiológicas e perspectivas para prevenção do câncer no Brasil / Physical Activity and cancer: epidemiological evidence and perspectives for cancer prevention in BrazilRezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado de 05 February 2019 (has links)
Câncer é a segunda maior causa de morte no Brasil e no mundo. Esse cenário tende a se agravar devido ao crescimento e envelhecimento populacional e ao aumento da prevalência das causas de câncer na população. Compreender o papel da atividade física na redução do risco de câncer é de grande interesse na literatura epidemiológica. Os objetivos deste estudo foram (i) avaliar a associação entre atividade física e o risco de câncer na população; (ii) estimar a potencial contribuição da atividade física na prevenção e controle do câncer no Brasil. Cinco manuscritos compuseram essa tese. O primeiro apresentou revisão de literatura sobre a consistência da evidência epidemiológica sobre a associação entre atividade física e 22 tipos de câncer. Os resultados indicaram que a atividade física em adultos está associada com menor risco de sete tipos de câncer. No entanto, houve evidência consistente apenas para os cânceres de cólon e mama pós-menopausa. Evidência para outros tipos de câncer apresentou indícios de viés e heterogeneidade na literatura. O segundo manuscrito avaliou a associação entre atividade física durante a adolescência e risco de adenoma colorretal, um precursor de câncer colorretal. Os resultados indicaram que a atividade física durante a adolescência também pode contribuir para menor risco de câncer colorretal, independentemente da atividade física na fase adulta. Mulheres que praticaram mais atividade física na adolescência apresentaram menor risco de adenoma colorretal do que aquelas que praticaram menos atividade física. O terceiro manuscrito investigou a influência do tipo e intensidade da atividade física para redução de biomarcadores inflamatórios e de resposta à insulina relacionados ao risco de câncer. A atividade física foi associada com menor concentração desses biomarcadores. As associações foram mais fortes em participantes que praticaram atividade física aeróbica e de força combinadas. Não houve benefício adicional de atividades físicas de intensidade vigorosa, comparado com atividades moderadas. O quarto e o quinto avaliaram, respectivamente, a preventabilidade de câncer mediante o aumento da atividade física no Brasil; a magnitude dessa preventabilidade vis-à-vis a redução de fatores de risco relacionados ao estilo de vida. Aproximadamente 10 mil casos de câncer (12% dos casos de câncer de mama pós-menopausa e 19% dos casos de câncer de cólon) poderiam ser prevenidos por ano mediante o aumento da atividade física. No entanto, tabagismo ainda é a principal causal de câncer no Brasil, seguido de excesso de peso/obesidade e consumo de álcool. A redução de todos fatores de risco relacionados ao estilo de vida (tabagismo, excesso de peso, consumo de álcool, falta de atividade física, e alimentação não saudável) poderia prevenir até 27% de todos os casos de câncer e 34% de todas as mortes por câncer no Brasil. Em conclusão, atividade física, desde a infância até a fase adulta, pode reduzir o risco de alguns tipos de câncer. Mecanismos biológicos corroboram essas associações e indicam maior benefício para atividades aeróbicas e de força combinadas. Resultados das estimativas de preventabilidade de câncer mediante aumento da atividade física podem ser úteis para estratégias de prevenção e controle do câncer no Brasil / Cancer is the second leading cause of death in Brazil and worldwide. This scenario has an aggravating effect due to expected population aging and growth and the increasing prevalence of cancer causes. To understand the role of physical activity in reducing the risk of cancer is of high interest in epidemiological literature. The objectives of this study were: (i) to evaluate the association between physical activity and risk of cancer in the population; (ii) to estimate the potential contribution of physical activity for cancer prevention and control in Brazil. Five manuscripts composed this thesis. The first presented a review of the literature on the consistency of epidemiological evidence between physical activity and 22 types of cancer. The results showed that physical activity in adults was associated with a lower risk of seven types of cancer. However, only breast post-menopausal and colon cancers were supported by convincing evidence. Evidence for the other types of cancer presented hints of bias and heterogeneity in the literature. The second manuscript examined the association between physical activity during the adolescence and risk of colorectal adenomas, a precursor of colorectal cancer. Physical activity during the adolescence was associated with lower the risk of colorectal cancer, independent of physical activity during adulthood. Women with high physical activity during adolescence presented lower risk of adenomas later in life compared to those with lower physical activity. The third manuscript investigated the influence of type and intensity of physical activity with cancer biomarkers of inflammatory and insulin response. High physical activity was associated with favorable concentration of cancer biomarkers. Associations were stronger for combined aerobic and resistance training. There were no additional benefits of engaging in vigorous physical activity over moderate activities. The fourth and fifth manuscripts evaluated, respectively, the preventability of cancer by increasing physical activity in Brazil; and the magnitude of this preventability vis-à-vis the reduction of other lifestyle risk factors. About 10 thousand cancer cases per year (12% of postmenopausal cancers and 19% of colon cancers) could be avoided by increasing population-wide physical activity in Brazil. However, smoking is still the major cause of cancer in Brazil, followed by overweight/obesity and alcohol consumption. The reduction of all lifestyle risk factors (smoking, overweight/obesity, alcohol consumption, lack of physical activity and unhealthy diet) could potentially avoid up to 27% of all cancer cases and 34% of all cancer deaths in Brazil. In conclusion, physical activity, from childhood to adulthood, may reduce the risk of some types of cancer. Biological mechanisms corroborate these associations and indicate more favorable outcomes for combined aerobic and resistance training. Our findings on preventability of cancer by increasing population-wide physical activity may be useful for cancer prevention strategies in Brazil
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Le marché des obligations privées à la bourse de Paris au 19ème siècle : performance et efficience d'un marché obligataire / The Paris corporate bond market in the 19th century : performance and efficiency of a bond marketRezaee, Amir 15 December 2010 (has links)
L’objet de cette thèse est d’analyser d’un point de vue financier la cotation et le comportement des obligations privées à la Bourse de Paris à partir de 1838 jusqu’à l’éclatement de la Première Guerre mondiale. Cette étude est divisée en deux parties : La première relate la création et l’évolution des émissions obligataires (marché primaire) durant le 19ème siècle. On s’intéresse aux grands émetteurs qui ont su se servir le mieux des obligations et les raisons de leur succès. Dans cette partie seront également traitées les caractéristiques techniques et les innovations financières des émissions. La deuxième partie tente d’analyser le comportement boursier des obligations(marché secondaire).Pour cela un indice général des cours d’obligations durant le 19ème siècle a été calculé. En se basant sur cet indice nous mettons en lumière pour la première fois, les caractéristiques de ce marché (rentabilité, volatilité, …). Cela permet de comparer nos résultats avec ceux des études antérieures sur les marchés d’actions et de la rente au 19ème siècle. Cet indice permet également de tester les diverses hypothèses financières relevant de la théorie financière moderne (efficience informationnelle, cointégration avec des autres compartiments du marché,…). / This thesis studies the French corporate bonds market during the 19th century. Despite its importance the performance of the corporate bonds quoted on the Paris Bourse has never been studied. In order to analyse this market, a price index of the corporate bond market has been created by using modern techniques. The creation of the index was made possible thanks to an original database created by new data, which has never been used before and collected directly from the publications of the market authorities during the nineteenth century. Thanks to the index, the risk and the return of the market have been measured. Then we compared the performance of the French corporate bonds with those of the stocks and government bonds; the results of thecomparisons are interesting. This study demonstrates that the corporate bonds are the least risky securities and their rate of return is higher than the government bonds during the nineteenth century. Some econometric tests have also been used to compare the efficiency of bond market with the other segments of the Paris Bourse.
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Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: Causality and Cointegration NexusIwegbunam, Ifeoma Anthonia 11 1900 (has links)
This study examined the effects of government expenditure on different components of economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data from the period 1970Q1 to 2016Q4. The six key policy variables employed in the analysis were derived from the Ram (1986) production model and the New Growth Path (NGP), a macroeconomic framework designed to address the main challenges (unemployment, poverty and inequality) facing the economy as a result of its political past. The analysis of the relationship was carried out using the VECM while the findings from the analysis revealed that though there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The long-run estimates showed that aggregate private consumption expenditure and employment-to-population ratio are significant but negatively, related to economic growth. However, the net inflows of foreign direct investment and gross fixed capital formation are negatively related to gross government expenditure. This implies that excessive public capital expenditure might reduce the positive impact of the two variables on economic growth. The study therefore suggests that government should consider increasing its expenditure on the significant variables that support labour and capital development, in order to enhance economic growth in South Africa. / Economics
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Dinâmica de forças como base conceitual para a causalidade: um estudo em gramática cognitiva sobre as conjunções causais do alemão / Force dynamics as conceptual base for causality: a cognitive grammar study about the causal conjunctions in GermanDavid Edson Farah 17 September 2018 (has links)
A presente tese de doutorado tem por objetivo (i) Descrever o significado das conjunções causais da língua alemã por meio dos recursos fornecidos pelo Modelo da Dinâmica de Forças no contexto da Gramática Cognitiva; e (ii) explicar a multiplicidade de conjunções causais na língua alema a partir de diferentes arranjos de perspectiva conceitual evocados pelas diferentes conjunções que atendem diferentes necessidades comunicativas dos participantes de uma interação linguística. Para tanto, desenvolve um modelo de análise elaborado a partir dos conceitos teóricos da Gramática Cognitiva (Langacker 1987, 1991, 2008) e do Modelo da Dinâmica de Forças (Talmy 1988) para as conjunções causais da língua alemã contemporânea (da, denn e weil ). A Gramática Cognitiva e a Dinâmica de Forças são abordagens da Linguística Cognitiva para a gramática e compartilham a concepção de que a experiência humana com a realidade fornece o substrato conceitual que molda o significado linguístico. Elas também compartilham a noção de que as interações mediadas por força representam um ponto-chave conceitual para a descrição do significado de classes gramaticais variadas como, por exemplo, verbos modais e causativos, preposições, advérbios e conjunções. A pesquisa aqui apresentada faz um levantamento dos recursos teóricos empregados pela Gramática Cognitiva e elabora a partir de ocorrências extraídas de textos jornalísticos uma descrição do significado das conjunções causais da, denn e weil em que a Dinâmica de Forças figura como base conceitual a partir da qual as chamadas operações de perspectivação conceitual (construal operations) estruturam os conteúdos relevantes para a diferenciação de cada uma das conjunções. Essa diferenciação, segundo sugere este trabalho, está relacionada ao fato de que cada uma das conjunções reside essencialmente no fato de que cada uma acessa a base conceitual (dinâmica de forças) a partir perspectivas diferentes, adequadas a situações comunicativas diversas e visa estabelecer entre falante e ouvinte uma melhor troca de informações acerca daquilo que compartilhando em sua interação linguística. / The present doctoral dissertation aims (i) a description of the meaning of the German causal conjunctions in terms of force-dynamic patterns and construal operations; as well as (ii) an explanation for the multiplicity of causal conjunctions based on the notion that construal can impose different conceptual strutuctures to the same conceptual basis, resultuing in different perspectives over causality, perfiled by the conjunctions of a language. In order to fulfill this purpose, I develop an analisys model based on the theoretical concepts of Cognitive Grammar (Langacker 1987, 1991, 2008) and the Force Dynamics Model (Talmy 1988) for the causal conjunctions of the contemporary German language (da, denn and weil). Cognitive Grammar and Force Dynamics are approaches based on the Cognitive Linguistics framework to grammar and share the view that the human experience of reality provides the conceptual substrate that shapes linguistic meaning. They also share the notion that the conception that force-mediated interactions represent a reference point for describing the meaning of several grammatical classes, such as modal and causative verbs, prepositions, adverbs, and conjunctions. This research uses the theoretical resources used by Cognitive Grammar in order to elaborate a description of the meaning of the causal conjunctions da, denn and weil. It is argued that the conceptual basis of these conjunctions consists of a force-dynamic pattern accessed by the so-called construal operations. The construal operations structure the content of the conceptual basis in different ways. It is argued in the the present research that different conceptual structures imposed by construal can be related to the multiplicity of causal conjunctions in contemporary German. Thus, da, denn and weil serve to the conceptualization of diverse communicative situations in which the speaker attempts to convey specific causal information to the listener about the objective scene they are conceptualizing in the linguistic interaction.
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Un cadre général de causalité basé sur les traces pour des systèmes à composants / A general trace-based causality analysis framework for component systemsGeoffroy, Yoann 07 December 2016 (has links)
Dans des système concurrent, potentiellement embarqués et distribué, il est souvent crucial d'être capable de déterminer quel(s) composant(s) est(sont) responsable(s) d'une défaillance, que ce soit pour debbuger, établir une responsabilité contractuelle du fournisseur des composant, ou pour isolée, ou redémarrer les composants défaillants. Le diagnostic s'appuie sur l'analyse de la causalité logique pour distinguer les composants ayant contribué à la défaillance du système, de ceux ayant eu peu ou pas d'impact sur cette dernière. Plus précisément, un composant C est une cause nécessaire, si la propriété P du système n'aurait pas été violée si C s'était comporté selon sa spécification S. De même, C est une cause suffisante de la violation de P (défaillance du système) si P aurait été violée, même si tous les composants, sauf C, avait respecté leur spécification. Autrement dit, la violation de S, du composant C, est suffisante pour violer P. L'approche a été formalisée, initialement, pour des modèle d'interaction BIP. Le but de ce projet est de formaliser un raisonnement similaire pour des programmes fonctionnels, où les fonctions sont équipées d'invariant décrivant leur comportement attendu. L'analyse prendrait en entrée une trace d'exécution (défaillante) et les invariant, et déterminerait quelle(s) fonction(s) est(sont) une(des) cause(s) de la défaillance. L'approche devra être implémenté et appliquée à des cas d'études provenant du domaine médical, ou de l'automatique. / In a concurrent, possibly embedded and distributed system, it is often crucial to be able to determine which component(s) caused an observed failure - be it for debugging, to establish the contractual liability of component providers, or to isolate or reset the failing component. The diagnostic relies on analysis of logical causality to distinguish component failures that actually contributed to the outcome from failures that had little or no impact on the system-level failure . More precisely, necessary causality of a component C characterizes cases when a system-level property P would not have been violated if the specification S of C had been fulfilled. Sufficient causality characterizes cases where P would have been violated even if all the components but C had fulfilled their specifications. In other words, the violation of S by C was sufficient to violate P. The initial approach to causality analysis on execution traces was formalized for the BIP interaction model. The goal of this project is to formalize a similar reasoning for functional programs where functions are equipped with invariants describing the expected behavior. The analysis should take a (faulty) execution trace and the invariants and determine which function(s) caused the failure. The results should be implemented and applied to case studies from the medical and automotive domains.
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