殖利率曲線為描述零息債卷的殖利率與其到期日間之關係，一般來說其形狀應為正斜率，而一旦殖利率曲線反轉而呈現負斜率時，許多人將之解讀為未來經濟即將走弱的訊號。本論文主要是以Probit Model呈現期間利差與重貼現率的預測能力，並將結果區分為樣本內與樣本外呈現。實證結果發現，與國外文獻比較起來，台灣殖利率曲線斜率捕捉景氣蕭條的能力遜色許多，可能與兩國在經濟體質或是央行政策執行依據上的不同有關。而相較於殖利率曲線的斜率，重貼現率對於台灣景氣的影響更為明顯，顯示出台灣的經濟深受央行政策影響。而不論是在樣本內或樣本外的結果方面，皆顯示期間利差搭配重貼現率的預測能力會較只有期間利差單一解釋變數時來的好。

The diploma thesis deals with a determination of the market value of company Iveco Czech Republic, a.s. to date of 1st May, 2011 for the purpose of the purchase by an unknown investor. The theoretical part contains whole methodological apparatus which is subsequently applied in the practical part. The strategic analysis was divided into macro and micro analysis of the environment of the company. PEST analysis, Porter five forces analysis and SWOT analysis were used during the processing of the strategic analysis. The financial analysis rates the financial health of the company. The final part of thesis is focused on the prognosis of revenues, the compilation of the financial plan and valuation of the company. The valuation of the company was done by the book value method and the two-step DCF FCFF model. The market value of the company Iveco Czech Republic, a.s. and the recommendation for the investor are mentioned at the end of the thesis.

The master thesis deals with the appreciation of medical practice premises. Methods which are used, described and analyzed in the thesis, represent the standard expert methods for business valuation. These are supplemented by specific procedures used for determining the value of medical practices in particular. The work also describes the health care system of the Czech Republic, the methods and sources of payment for medical treatments, value generators in medical practices and basic procedures for identifying approximate value of medical practice, eventually of its goodwill. On practical example of medical practice there are described and applied also the scientific yield methods, which can derive the value of this type of business quite accurately. In the conclusion there are also discussed some currently used but not entirely accurate valuation processes.

Este trabalho descreve as práticas usuais dos avaliadores de ativos do mercado brasileiro ao estimar o valor do custo de capital próprio na composição da taxa de desconto dos fluxos de caixa a ser empregada no método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado. O estudo consiste de duas etapas principais. Na primeira foi feito um delineamento descritivo, explicitando-se quais são os métodos utilizados na estimação do custo de capital próprio, e como são obtidos os parâmetros que alimentam esses métodos. Na segunda fase do trabalho, foram realizados testes de hipótese de relações entre variáveis pertinentes no processo de estimação da taxa de desconto do capital próprio, buscando entender as relações de causa e efeito dos fenômenos presentes no processo. Para que os objetivos desejados fossem alcançados nas fases citadas, foi realizado um levantamento de dados primários, no qual se obteve uma amostra de 93 avaliações realizadas entre 2002 e 2006, tendo sido a sua maioria, aproximadamente 70%, realizadas em 2006. Em seguida foi feito um tratamento estatístico dos dados levantados, utilizando-se o aplicativo SPSS versão 13.0, com o propósito de agrupar e quantificar os resultados obtidos e de estabelecer relações pertinentes entre as variáveis envolvidas no processo de estimação do custo do capital próprio. Ao final, os resultados atingidos mostram a predominância de duas metodologias distintas: o CAPM e o Método de Prêmios de Risco. Para cada um dos métodos observou-se um padrão predominante de determinação dos parâmetros que viabilizam a metodologia. Além disso, foi verificada a existência de um forte viés de posição do avaliador ao selecionar quais fatores de risco incluir na metodologia. Uma análise derradeira da formação da taxa de desconto mostrou a sua forte relação com o porte do ativo avaliado, o que ratifica o conceito já preconizado em diversas publicações sobre o assunto, de que o prêmio por porte do ativo avaliado é um fator a ser levado em consideração. / This work describes the usual practices of asset valuators in Brazilian Market when estimating the equity capital cost used to compose the cost of capital to discount future cash flows through the Discounted Cash Flow Method. The study consists of two main blocks. Firstly, a general guideline was constructed, explaining the principal methods used for equity cost estimation and how these methods? parameters are obtained. In the second phase of the study, hypothesis tests concerning relations among relevant variables of the process were carried out, searching to identify the cause-effect relations among the phenomena present in the process. So that the objectives were reached in the mentioned phases, a primary data survey was carried out, obtaining a sample of 93 valuations made between 2002 and 2006. About 70% of these valuations were appraised in 2006. Therefore, a statistic data analysis took place with use of SPSS 13.0 version, with the objective of grouping and quantifying the survey results and also set relevant relations among involved variables in the equity cost of capital estimation. In the end, the main results show a predominance of two distinct methodologies: CAPM and Build-up Models. For each of them it was possible to identify a predominant standard of parameter estimation. Besides that, it was possible to verify the existence of a strong position bias on the analyst part, when deciding which risk premia to consider in the model. A final analysis of the discount rate composition showed strong relation with the appraised asset size, which confirms the popular concept in many publications, that size premium is a risk factor to be taken into account when valuating assets.

Le but de cette thèse est d'étudier par quatre essais l'économie de migration de pays en voie de développement. Le premier chapitre évalue l'effet des catastrophes naturelles (principalement en raison du changement climatique), dans les pays en voie de développement, sur des taux de migration et regarde comment cet effet varie selon le niveau d'enseignement des personnes. Nos résultats montrent que les catastrophes naturelles sont positivement associées aux taux d'émigration et impliquent aussi la migration des personnes fortement qualifiés. Le deuxième chapitre présente les différents canaux expliquant l'intention de migrer illégalement. Une des nouveautés de l'analyse est qu'elle utilise une enquête sur mesure parmi des individus sénégalais urbains. Nous constatons que les migrants illégaux potentiels sont enclins à accepter un risque substantiel de mort et sont souvent jeunes, célibataires et avec un niveau bas d'éducation. Nous montrons aussi que le prix de l'immigration illégale, les réseaux d'immigrés, de hautes espérances, des politiques d'immigration serrées et le pays de destination jouent tous un rôle dans l'empressement de migrer illégalement. Le troisième chapitre complète le deuxième en étudiant le rôle d'aversion des risques et le taux d'escompte dans la migration illégale du Sénégal. Nos résultats montrent que ces préférences individuelles comptent dans l'empressement de migrer illégalement et payer à un contrebandier. Finalement dans le quatrième chapitre, nous nous sommes intéressés à la place des migrants sur les marchés de crédit dans un contexte rural. Selon nos résultats, avoir un migrant dans un ménage augmente autant la probabilité d'avoir un prêt que sa taille, que le prêt soit formel ou informel. Nous constatons aussi que cet effet positif reste significatif peu importe si le prêt est pris pour des raisons professionnelles ou simplement pour acheter de la nourriture. / The aim of this thesis is to study through four essays the economics of migration from developing countries. The first chapter assesses the effect of natural disasters (mainly due to climate change), in developing countries, on migration rates and looks at how this effect varies according to the level of education of people. Our results show that natural disasters are positively associated with emigration rates and also involve the migration of highly skilled people. The second chapter presents the different channels explaining the intention to migrate illegally. One of the novelties of the analysis is that it uses a tailor-Made survey among urban Senegalese individuals. We find that potential illegal migrants are willing to accept a substantial risk of death and tend to be young, single and with a low level of education. We also show that the price of illegal migration, migrant networks, high expectations, tight immigration policies and the preferred destination country all play a role in the willingness to migrate illegally. The third chapter completes the second one by studying the role of risk-Aversion and discount rate in illegal migration from Senegal. Our results show that these individual preferences matter in the willingness to migrate illegally and to pay a smuggler. Finally in the fourth chapter, we are interested in the effect of migrants on credit markets in a rural Senegalese context. According to our results, having a migrant in a household increases both the likelihood of having a loan and its size, whether the loan is formal or informal. We also find that this positive effect remains significant no matter if the loan is taken for professional activities or simply to buy food.

<p>This thesis consists of an introduction and four papers exploring various aspects of the Namibian economy. These aspects cover shadow pricing, environmental valuation and capital market development in Namibia.</p><p>Paper I estimates the shadow prices of capital, labour and foreign exchange for the Namibian economy. The results suggest that the shadow price of capital for Namibia is 7.2%. The economic costs of Namibian labour, as a share of financial costs, are 32% for urban semi- and unskilled labour, and 54% for rural semi- and unskilled labour. The economic cost of foreign labour as a share of financial costs is 59%. The estimated shadow exchange rate factor is 4% for the Namibian economy.</p><p>Paper II derives a set of accounting price ratios (APRs) for the various economic sectors of Namibia by using the Semi-Input–Output (SIO) Technique. An APR is the ratio between the market or financial price and the efficiency or economic value of a specific commodity or sector, which is useful for the economic analysis of investment or development initiatives. This larger set of APRs, derived on the basis of information contained in a Namibian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), should be useful in improving the effective appraisal of development projects and other major investment programmes in Namibia.</p><p>Paper III analyses returns and volatility on the Namibian and South African stock markets, using the daily closing indices of the Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The sample covers the period from 4 January 1999 to 20 March 2003. The methodology has three main parts: (i) unit root tests, (ii) cointegration analysis, and (iii) volatility modelling. The results show that the two markets exhibit very low correlations, and there is no evidence of a linear relationship between the markets. Furthermore, a volatility analysis shows evidence of no spillover effects. These results suggest that the NSX could be an attractive risk diversification tool for regional portfolio diversification in southern Africa</p><p>Paper IV studies the determinants of property prices in the township areas of Windhoek, the capital of Namibia. The work‟s major finding is that properties located close to an environmental bad (e.g. garbage dump) sell at considerable discounts. On the other hand, properties located near an environmental good (e.g. a recreational open space) sell at a premium. These results provide evidence of the importance of environmental quality in lower-income property markets in developing countries. It is important, therefore, for Namibian urban planners to incorporate environmental quality into the planning framework for lower-income areas.</p>

This thesis consists of an introduction and four papers exploring various aspects of the Namibian economy. These aspects cover shadow pricing, environmental valuation and capital market development in Namibia. Paper I estimates the shadow prices of capital, labour and foreign exchange for the Namibian economy. The results suggest that the shadow price of capital for Namibia is 7.2%. The economic costs of Namibian labour, as a share of financial costs, are 32% for urban semi- and unskilled labour, and 54% for rural semi- and unskilled labour. The economic cost of foreign labour as a share of financial costs is 59%. The estimated shadow exchange rate factor is 4% for the Namibian economy. Paper II derives a set of accounting price ratios (APRs) for the various economic sectors of Namibia by using the Semi-Input–Output (SIO) Technique. An APR is the ratio between the market or financial price and the efficiency or economic value of a specific commodity or sector, which is useful for the economic analysis of investment or development initiatives. This larger set of APRs, derived on the basis of information contained in a Namibian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), should be useful in improving the effective appraisal of development projects and other major investment programmes in Namibia. Paper III analyses returns and volatility on the Namibian and South African stock markets, using the daily closing indices of the Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX) and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The sample covers the period from 4 January 1999 to 20 March 2003. The methodology has three main parts: (i) unit root tests, (ii) cointegration analysis, and (iii) volatility modelling. The results show that the two markets exhibit very low correlations, and there is no evidence of a linear relationship between the markets. Furthermore, a volatility analysis shows evidence of no spillover effects. These results suggest that the NSX could be an attractive risk diversification tool for regional portfolio diversification in southern Africa Paper IV studies the determinants of property prices in the township areas of Windhoek, the capital of Namibia. The work‟s major finding is that properties located close to an environmental bad (e.g. garbage dump) sell at considerable discounts. On the other hand, properties located near an environmental good (e.g. a recreational open space) sell at a premium. These results provide evidence of the importance of environmental quality in lower-income property markets in developing countries. It is important, therefore, for Namibian urban planners to incorporate environmental quality into the planning framework for lower-income areas.

Syfte: Uppsatsen syfte är att klargöra och analysera reporäntans ränteförändringars påverkan på aktiekurserna för samtliga svenska banker i large cap på Stockholmsbörsen. Metod: Kvantitativa händelsestudier har gjorts med deduktiv forskningsansats på fyra företag, samtliga noterade på Stockholmsbörsen. Den onormala avkastningen för de undersökta aktiekurserna har beräknats en dag före till en dag efter samtliga realiseringar av reporänteförändringar som skett mellan åren 2004 till 2015.  Teori: Den teoretiska referensramen för studien består av den effektiva marknadshypotesen och överreaktionshypotesen. Slutsatser: Studien har påvisat att det råder signifikant samband mellan ränteförändringar och de studerade aktiernas avkastning vid realisering av ränteförändringarna. / Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to clarify and analyze the changes in the discount rate and its impact on stock prices of all Swedish listed banks in large cap on the Stockholm stock exchange. Methodology: Quantitative event studies has been done with deductive research approach on four companies, all listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. The abnormal returns for the examined stock prices have been calculated one day before to one day after all the realizations of the changes in the discount rate that occurred between year 2004 to 2015. Theory: The theoretical framework in this study consists of The Effective Market Hypothesis and The Overreaction Hypothesis. Conclusions: The study has shown that there is a significant correlation between the changes in the discount rate and the equity returns of the studied stocks.

Darbe analizuojama AB „Pieno žvaigždės“ įmonės vertė. Nagrinėjama problema – ar įmonės akcijų rinkos kaina atitinka tikrąją įmonės vertę. Darbe atlikta pagrindinių vertės nustatymo metodų palyginamoji analizė. AB „Pieno žvaigždės“ vertes nustatymui pasirinkti du metodai: diskontuotų pinigų srautų, tenkančių įmonei ir palyginamųjų rodiklių. Diskontuotų pinigų srautų metodu nustatyta akcijos kaina - 3,50 lito. Akcijos rinkos kaina – 2,10 lito (2009 m. gegužės mėn). Tai parodo, kad įmonės akcijos yra nepakankamai įvertinamos rinkoje. Palyginamieji rodikliai lyginti su panašiomis dydžiu pieno perdirbimo įmonėmis užsienyje. Palyginamųjų rodiklių metodu apskaičiuota apytikslė akcijos vertė – 3,51 lito. Palyginamųjų rodiklių analizė patvirtina, kad įmonės akcijos yra nepakankamai įvertinamos. Atsižvelgiant į tyrimo rezultatus, rekomenduojama pirkti AB „Pieno žvaigždės“ akcijas. / This paper studies the value of JSC company „Pieno žvaigždės“. The main question addressed is: does company’s market share price is equal to the true value of the share. This paper analyses main valuation methods. For valuation of JSC “Pieno žvaigždės” share discounted cash flow to the firm and relative valuation approaches are chosen. Price calculated by the method of discounted cash flow to the firm - 3,50 litas. Market value of the share – 2,10 litas (as of May 2009). The findings show that shares of the company are undervalued in the market. Relative valuation ratios are compared to dairy companies abroad which are similar by size. Price calculated by relative valuation method – 3,51 litas. Relative valuation method proves that shares of the company are undervalued in the market. According to the findings of the paper it is recommended to acquire shares of JSC “Pieno žvaigždės”.

The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of ABC's investment project using selected methods of economic evaluation of the investment effectiveness and another aim of the thesis is to select the optimal variant of financing the investment project with a view to minimizing costs. Given that it is a manufacturing company, the calculation of products X and Y based on the data provided by the company is used as the basis for determining the future income from the investment project. The calculation is based on the actual production capacity of the machine. The prediction of revenue and expenditure is based on a 4% year-on-year increase. Expenditure also includes costs related to the use of foreign capital, as the use of the INFA modelwhich is used in this work to calculate the discount raterequires a cash flow adjustment to the equity method. When establishing the cash flow, a direct method based on a revenue and expenditure plan was used. Due to the planned expenses for the production machine insurance and credit repayments, these items are also taken into account in the cash flow. The other aim is to select a method of financing the investment project with a view to minimizing costs. The company does not have sufficiently high equity capital that could be used to finance the investment project, which is why drawing of a business loan and the possibility of financing through finance leases are proposed as ways of securing financing. The proposed financing methods and their valuation, taking into account the minimization of costs, are based on the discounted business loan and finance lease expense method.