Orientador: Francisco Luiz Cazeiro Lopreato / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-21T15:37:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lopes_GuilhermeNogueira_M.pdf: 1815308 bytes, checksum: c1d79fbab70820ea9023abc0731946c8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: O trabalho aborda o processo de transição nos planos de benefícios dos fundos de pensão nos países centrais a partir da dinâmica do capitalismo contemporâneo e a adequação dos portfólios de investimentos desses agentes à nova realidade. Para o caso brasileiro, o texto vai demonstrar que esses agentes viveram parcialmente esse processo, uma vez que a remuneração oferecida para a rolagem dos títulos da dívida pública brasileira propiciou a manutenção de portfólios de investimentos ancorados nesses ativos. Este quadro deve mudar com a redução sistemática na remuneração paga nas novas emissões do Tesouro Nacional e demandar alterações na dinâmica de gestão de investimentos. Em razão dessas perspectivas e das experiências observadas nos países centrais, o trabalho indica os serviços de infraestrutura como opção para diversificação do portfólio de investimentos dos fundos brasileiros, dadas as características de geração de receitas de longo prazo e os extensos prazos de maturação para tais investimentos. Finalmente o trabalho indicará possíveis arquiteturas para viabilizar o ingresso de fundos de pensão de menor porte, dadas as suas limitações, de modo a tornar tais oportunidades acessíveis ao maior número possível de agentes / Abstract: The paper discusses the transition process in benefit schemes of pension funds in the core countries, from the point of view of the dynamics of contemporary capitalism and the revision of agents investment portfolios according to the new reality. For the Brazilian case, the text argues that agents experienced this process not in full, since the remuneration offered to rollover the Brazilian government bonds allowed the preservation of investment portfolios anchored in these assets. This framework must change with the systematic reduction in the remuneration paid to newly issued Treasury and demands changes in the dynamics of investment management. Given these perspectives and experiences observed in the core countries, the work points to infrastructure services as an option for portfolio diversification of Brazilian funds, due to long term revenue generation profile and long term maturity for such investments. Finally, the work indicates possible architectures that enable the entry of smaller pension funds, - limited by their capital and management structure -, making such opportunities available to the largest possible number of agents / Mestrado / Desenvolvimento Economico, Espaço e Meio Ambiente / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

[pt] O presente trabalho realizou uma análise dos efeitos provocados pela inclusão da classe de ativos denominada multimercado, na carteira dos Fundos de Pensão no Brasil. Esta denominação, multimercado, é fornecida pela Resolução CMN 3.456 de 1º de junho de 2007 que permitiu um limite de aplicação de até 3% nestes ativos. Face ao grande leque de possibilidades disponíveis com a permissão para aplicação nesta categoria de multimercados, optou-se neste trabalho por avaliar especificamente o impacto da aplicação em ativos no exterior e em fundos long and short. Através dos resultados do teste t para igualdade dos retornos médios, constatou-se que a aplicação nos ativos avaliados não produziu efeitos significativos na fronteira eficiente dos fundos de pensão, mesmo quando o limite de aplicação foi expandido para 20%. No entanto, mudanças no cenário econômico atual indicam que a busca por alternativas de investimentos, capazes de melhorar o desempenho no longo prazo, será um fator fundamental para manutenção do equilíbrio financeiro desse grupo de investidores. / [en] The present study has performed an analysis of the effects caused in the performance of Brazilian pension funds by the inclusion of hedge funds in their portfolios, including funds invested in international assets. The definition of hedge funds is provided by the Resolution CMN 3456 of June 1, 2007. This Resolution allowed pension funds in Brazil to allocate up to 3% of their investments in international hedge funds. Given the wide range of assets classes available in this category of hedge funds, this study has focused on international assets and longshort funds. The t-test results for the average returns showed that investments in such asset classes do not generate a major effect on the efficient frontier of the pension funds` investments. The results do not change much even if we increase the constraint from 3% to 20%. However, changes in the current economic environment indicate that finding alternative investments that can enhance the asset performance on a long term view will be a crucial factor to maintain the financial health of pension funds.

The well-known problems of decreasing birth rates and population ageing represent a major challenge for the Austrian pension system. It is expected that the group of pensioners will grow steadily in the future, while the proportion of people that support them - the taxpayers - will shrink. In this regard, microsimulation provides a valuable tool to identify the impact of various policy measures. With microsimulation, it is not only possible to predict cross-sectional data (e.g., the distribution of age groups in 2050), but also to simulate lifecourses of people, providing longitudinal outcomes. The demographics module is the first in a series of modules that are part of a microsimulation prototype. This prototype is being developed in order to predict the long-term evolution of Employment Biographies in Austria.

Pension is a subject that soon or later affects all individuals in society. Within the premium pension system mutual fund fees are an important factor to consider since it can erode savings. This study investigates fees and performance of all mutual funds that existed in the premium pension system (PPS) between 2004 and 2016. Risk-adjusted performance and fees are adjusted to reflect the discount that is given for fees within the premium pension system to reflect actual investor experiences. The data needed to make these adjustments were obtained from the Swedish Pension Agency. The main purpose of this study is to investigate if there is a relationship between fee and risk-adjusted return within the Swedish premium pension system. Further on this study aims to explain what mutual fund characteristics can be used to predict performance and fees within the premium pension system.Theories used in this study are efficient market hypothesis, agency theory, behavioral finance, economies of scale and portfolio theory. The factors from the Carhart 4-factor model is used to construct the factor model utilized in this study to estimate risk-adjusted returns. This study adapts a quantitative research method and panel data regressions were conducted to determine how fee and risk-adjusted performance is related to various mutual fund characteristics. Hausman tests were conducted to evaluate if the fixed effects model or random effects model was the most appropriate to use. The result of the Hausman test proved that fixed effect model was the most appropriate model to use.This study will draw conclusions about whether the fee that the mutual fund companies charge can be justified given their risk-adjusted performance. The results for the sample of all mutual funds and the sample of equity funds imply that there exists a positive relationship between fee after discount and performance. Therefore, mutual funds in the premium pension system compensate for increasing fees with a higher risk-adjusted return. The sample of balanced funds differs since there is a negative relationship between risk-adjusted returns and fees. This study finds that size is a determinant of risk-adjusted performance, with larger mutual fund performing better than smaller funds. Because of this finding, it can be concluded that economies of scale do exist among the mutual funds in the premium pension system. Actively managed mutual funds charge higher mutual fund fees on average than passively managed funds. Further on, there is significant evidence that actively managed equity funds perform worse than passively managed equity funds. This suggests that investors are better off investing into cheaper equity index funds rather than expensive actively managed equity funds.

M.Comm. (Investment Management) / Property investments have always been a major attraction to the private individual and the institutional investor. Pension funds were slow to venture into this market but in South Africa there was increasing activity in the property market by pension funds over the last eight to ten years. The main reason for this development can be attributed to the fact that inflation in South Africa caused salaries and wages to increase substantially and increased salaries and wages resulted in increased contributions to pension funds. Pension Fund Administrators were, and they still are, faced with ever-increasing cash flows which must be invested to meet long term commitments. Venturing into the property market, left pension funds at what could be termed the mercy of developers and Estate Agents. Standardisation of presentation of investment details and commonly used evaluation methods and procedures are lacking. Proper knowledge of legal and contractual requirements are being obtained from legal advisers, but the pension fund movement is not yet self supporting in any of these fields. This study is an effort to identify the legal aspects, contractual requirements, methods of property development and minimum requirements for evaluation purposes. Inherent in the requirements are those aspects worthy of special reference in relation to the decision making process. It may be said that property investment by the private individual is not different from that of the pension fund. This statement is, however, only partly true. The requirements for the decision making process depends on the objectives of the investor. The pension fund, for example, has a long term view and sustained growth in cash flow as well as capital appreciation of the investment over the long term is a major determinant.

L'objectif de cette thèse est d'apporter une contribution sur la question de la réforme du système de retraite par répartition lequel devient plus que jamais fragilisé dans un contexte de vieillissement des populations. Aussi, dans le cadre de cette recherche, nous avons analysé les effets du système de retraite par répartition ainsi que de sa réforme sur les variables macroéconomiques et sur le bien être des générations. Dans cette perspective, nous avons construit un modèle d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées à partir duquel nous avons simulé différents scénarii de réforme du système de retraite tunisien en tenant compte de l'évolution de la population. Les résultats empiriques corroborent ceux dégagés d'un point de vue théorique et montrent qu'une combinaison d'une hausse du taux de cotisation, d'une baisse du taux de remplacement et d'un recul de cinq ans de l'âge de départ à la retraite, améliorerait le solde budgétaire du système par répartition mais aurait un effet négatif sur l'épargne ainsi que sur le stock de capital de l'économie. Par ailleurs, il s'avère que l'introduction d'un pilier par capitalisation, tout en maintenant constant le taux global de cotisation, aurait des effets positifs sur les variables macroéconomiques mais affecterait négativement le bien-être des générations de la transition. Les résultats des simulations nous ont également permis de formuler une proposition de réforme qui se déroulerait en deux étapes et qui permettrait de maintenir l'équilibre financier du système de retraite tunisien jusqu'en 2040. / The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the social security reform debate which is becoming an up-to-date concern with an aging population context. In this research, we analyze the impact of the macroeconomic and welfare effects of the pay-as-you-go system and of its reform especially during the transition. In this perspective we developed an overlapping generation model based on a general equilibrium framework. Our model takes into account the evolution of the Tunisian demographic structure. Results from simulations suggest that a social security reform combining a decrease in the replacement rate, an increase in the contribution rate and a five year increase in the retirement age have positive financial effects. However, it has negative effects on savings and on capital stock in the economy. According to our model, a fully funded pillar introduction, keeping total contribution rate constant, has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables. Nevertheless, this reform hurts the transitional generations welfare. Using these results, we propose a two-step reform of the Tunisian retirement system which introduces a fully funded pillar. This reform proposal can insure financial equilibrium of the retirement system until 2040.

In British Columbia, teachers and school trustees have been permitted to negotiate and arbitrate teachers’ salaries since 1919. Amendments to the school law in 1933 and 1937 introduced demandable adjudication of tenure disputes and demandable arbitration of salaries. Since 1958, conciliation and arbitration have been compulsory. The provincial government has consistently held that school boards are teachers' employers, and maintenance of local board autonomy has been the expressed desire of government, teachers, and trustees. The investigation, which depended chiefly upon articles in periodicals, supplemented by interviews, Inquired into the effects of arbitration upon some of the parties involved in public education in B.C. Emphasis was placed on examining changes in teachers’ economic status and in the organization and methods of operation of the British Columbia Teachers' Federation. Consideration was also given to related changes in the British Columbia School Trustees' Association and to changes in government policy. Arbitration of salary disputes with trustees was the choice of B.C. teachers in preference to striking when negotiated settlements could not be reached. However, teachers have been narrowly limited by the bargaining and arbitration provisions of the Public Schools Acts when compared with the scope permitted employees under B.C.'s labour laws. The evidence was not available by which to discriminate accurately between the effects of arbitration and collective bargaining in raising teachers' salaries. During the period 1931-61, teachers raised their income level in relation to the average incomes paid for professional employment both in the province and in the nation as a whole. Salary anomalies within the B.C. sector of the profession have been virtually eliminated, but a new anomaly was created by the rapid rise in teachers’ salaries after the Second World War. In some school districts, the salaries of senior principals exceeded those paid to district superintendents of schools, who were employees of the provincial government. The rising level of teachers' salaries, combined with increasing school construction costs, have been used as arguments for expanded provincial school grants to municipalities. The school law, as it existed in 1911, delegated considerable authority to school boards and gave them a preponderance of power in relation to their employees. The amendment of 1919, which permitted negotiation and arbitration of salaries, did nothing to disturb the relationship. To counterbalance trustees' power, teachers organized — initially as a federation of local teacher associations. Even when arbitration became demandable, school trustees refused to arbitrate more issues than required by law and generally would not negotiate school board policies that affected teachers' working conditions. Teachers therefore took steps to increase their unity and strength, which increased the efficiency of the B.C.T.F. as a bargaining unit. When attempts to negotiate issues with their employers failed, teachers adopted alternative methods to gain their ends. They appealed to the public for support, engaged in alliances with various organizations to pursue specific objectives, used the professional boycott, and negotiated directly with the provincial government for redress of grievances with their employers. The government responded to these appeals by severely limiting trustees’ administrative discretion, and by legislating upon teachers' pensions and other employment benefits. Teachers’professional aspirations to share, with trustees and provincial government, the power to determine educational policy have generally been unsuccessful, but they have gained influence in some policy areas. Major negotiations between teachers and trustees have tended to shift from the local to provincial level and, since 1956, trustees have made changes in their provincial organization to increase its effectiveness. Extensive use of conciliation, arbitration, and adjudication, has been coupled with expressed dissatisfaction at the results. This combination of events suggests that further research is required especially in development of more satisfactory criteria for negotiating occupational income levels and for measuring teaching efficiency. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

Chapter 1: Interregional Transfers through Public Pension in Canada- In this chapter, I build a regional computable general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations (OLG) structure of the Canadian economy to analyze population aging dynamics and public pensions. Canada is divided into three regions: Atlantic, Quebec and Rest of Canada (ROC). The impact of population aging is investigated on each of three regions' pension systems. The results confirm that as a result of aging all regions are affected negatively if they choose to have an independent pension system. Under a joint pension system most of the pressure of the provision of the pension system is on the ROC. Atlantic region benefits the most from a joint pension plan as the implicit funds ow from ROC to Atlantic region. Quebec benefits from having its own program, but the benefits disappear slowly in future years. Chapter 2: Age-Variable Rate of Time Preference in CGE-OLG Model- Contrary to the mainstream studies in the area of intertemporal optimization that assume a constant rate of time preference over individuals' life cycles, in this chapter I propose a new approach to measure the rate of time preference by assuming that the rate of time preference evolves by age. I construct an overlapping generations model (OLG) and calibrate rate of time preference. The age-variable rate of time preference would permit to capture many other elements that affect the life cycle profile of consumption as observed in the data. The results show that rate of time preference exhibits three phases and is different for young versus old. Chapter 3: Computing Demographic Change Simulation under Constant and Age-variable Rate of Time Preference - This chapter simulates the impact of an aging population on various macroeconomic variables and calculates the cohort welfare as well as social welfare. The outcomes from simulations are dependent on the choice of rate of time preference as well as the structure of the model. The results in this chapter provide a new approach to determining the impact of aging population. The choice of a realistic rate of time preference, which allows its variability by age, affects the cohort welfare noticeably.

In diploma thesis titled Age financed by benefits from pension pillars, is a reader first of all informed about a classification of various pension systems. In the following text is described pension system of the Czech Republic in many details, which forms two pillars in present time. According to the description of the Czech pension system, is also explained demographic situation from historical and future context. Very important is also considered explanation and description of pension systems in other countries, which is based on OECD report from 2015. In practical part is a used methodic of Melbourne Mercer Global Pension index. The evaluation of pension systems is very detailed in selected countries except Czech Republic. The index methodology is applied on Czechs pension system in last part of the diploma thesis. Final index evaluation is used for the proposal improvement of pension system.

This Thesis discusses the pension system issues in the Czech Republic depending on a demographic situation. The first chapter affords the historic review of pension systems and shows information concerning actual applications. The second chapter is aimed at the financial variations of the pension system. The third chapter is focused on a basic description of the contemporary pension system in the Czech Republic and historic evolution as well. In the fourth chapter, there is made an excurse throught the reformed pension systems abroad. This is provided in case of post-communist countries as well as the Latin America`s country. In the fifth chapter, there is realized an appropriate analysis of financing the actual pension system in dependence on a population evolution. There is proved an indefensibility of PAYG model through the use of a mathematic model. At the begining of the closing chapter there is a conception of each political party. The second part of its is represented by own summary and conception of this "stalemate" situation.