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京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(医学) / 甲第23068号 / 医博第4695号 / 新制||医||1049(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院医学研究科医学専攻 / (主査)教授 石見 拓, 教授 大鶴 繁, 教授 福田 和彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Medical Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

Blue bonds are gaining global traction as innovative financial instruments to tackle marine sustainability, yet their yield spreads compared to conventional bonds remain unexplored. Based on the growing interest in sustainable investments and the concept of the greenium, this study introduces and searches for a bluenium, the analogous premium for blue bonds. Hence, the purpose of this research is to investigate whether blue bonds exhibit a lower yield at issuance compared to conventional bonds. This examination is intended to contribute to the literature on impact investment risk and return, particularly in the context of marine sustainability, providing valuable insights for investors, issuers, researchers, and policymakers. The study employs the propensity score matching (PSM) method to ensure robust comparative analysis between blue bonds and comparable conventional bonds. The empirical analysis identifies a yield spread of 47 basis points (bps) favouring higher yields for blue bonds, though these results lack statistical significance. Hence, there is no significant evidence of lower yields for blue bonds compared to conventional bonds. The insignificant results could stem from the relatively small sample size, reflecting the fact that blue bonds are in their early stage, suggesting that they may require further development, similar to what green bonds experienced. Future research should consider larger samples and additional variables to enhance the robustness and applicability of the findings. This study informs stakeholders of the complexities and development potential of the blue bond market.

In Chapter 1 of the dissertation, the role of social networks is analyzed as an important determinant in the search behavior of the unemployed. Based on the hypothesis that the unemployed generate information on vacancies through their social network, search theory predicts that individuals with large social networks should experience an increased productivity of informal search, and reduce their search in formal channels. Due to the higher productivity of search, unemployed with a larger network are also expected to have a higher reservation wage than unemployed with a small network. The model-theoretic predictions are tested and confirmed empirically. It is found that the search behavior of unemployed is significantly affected by the presence of social contacts, with larger networks implying a stronger substitution away from formal search channels towards informal channels. The substitution is particularly pronounced for passive formal search methods, i.e., search methods that generate rather non-specific types of job offer information at low relative cost. We also find small but significant positive effects of an increase of the network size on the reservation wage. These results have important implications on the analysis of the job search monitoring or counseling measures that are usually targeted at formal search only. Chapter 2 of the dissertation addresses the labor market effects of vacancy information during the early stages of unemployment. The outcomes considered are the speed of exit from unemployment, the effects on the quality of employment and the short-and medium-term effects on active labor market program (ALMP) participation. It is found that vacancy information significantly increases the speed of entry into employment; at the same time the probability to participate in ALMP is significantly reduced. Whereas the long-term reduction in the ALMP arises in consequence of the earlier exit from unemployment, we also observe a short-run decrease for some labor market groups which suggest that caseworker use high and low intensity activation measures interchangeably which is clearly questionable from an efficiency point of view. For unemployed who find a job through vacancy information we observe a small negative effect on the weekly number of hours worked. In Chapter 3, the long-term effects of participation in ALMP are assessed for unemployed youth under 25 years of age. Complementary to the analysis in Chapter 2, the effects of participation in time- and cost-intensive measures of active labor market policies are examined. In particular we study the effects of job creation schemes, wage subsidies, short-and long-term training measures and measures to promote the participation in vocational training. The outcome variables of interest are the probability to be in regular employment, and participation in further education during the 60 months following program entry. The analysis shows that all programs, except job creation schemes have positive and long-term effects on the employment probability of youth. In the short-run only short-term training measures generate positive effects, as long-term training programs and wage subsidies exhibit significant locking-in'' effects. Measures to promote vocational training are found to increase the probability of attending education and training significantly, whereas all other programs have either no or a negative effect on training participation. Effect heterogeneity with respect to the pre-treatment level education shows that young people with higher pre-treatment educational levels benefit more from participation most programs. However, for longer-term wage subsidies we also find strong positive effects for young people with low initial education levels. The relative benefit of training measures is higher in West than in East Germany. In the evaluation studies of Chapters 2 and 3 semi-parametric balancing methods of Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) are used to eliminate the effects of counfounding factors that influence both the treatment participation as well as the outcome variable of interest, and to establish a causal relation between program participation and outcome differences. While PSM and IPW are intuitive and methodologically attractive as they do not require parametric assumptions, the practical implementation may become quite challenging due to their sensitivity to various data features. Given the importance of these methods in the evaluation literature, and the vast number of recent methodological contributions in this field, Chapter 4 aims to reduce the knowledge gap between the methodological and applied literature by summarizing new findings of the empirical and statistical literature and practical guidelines for future applied research. In contrast to previous publications this study does not only focus on the estimation of causal effects, but stresses that the balancing challenge can and should be discussed independent of question of causal identification of treatment effects on most empirical applications. Following a brief outline of the practical implementation steps required for PSM and IPW, these steps are presented in detail chronologically, outlining practical advice for each step. Subsequently, the topics of effect estimation, inference, sensitivity analysis and the combination with parametric estimation methods are discussed. Finally, new extensions of the methodology and avenues for future research are presented. / In Kapitel 1 der Dissertation wird die Rolle von sozialen Netzwerken als Determinante im Suchverhalten von Arbeitslosen analysiert. Basierend auf der Hypothese, dass Arbeitslose durch ihr soziales Netzwerk Informationen über Stellenangebote generieren, sollten Personen mit großen sozialen Netzwerken eine erhöhte Produktivität ihrer informellen Suche erfahren, und ihre Suche in formellen Kanälen reduzieren. Durch die höhere Produktivität der Suche sollte für diese Personen zudem der Reservationslohn steigen. Die modelltheoretischen Vorhersagen werden empirisch getestet, wobei die Netzwerkinformationen durch die Anzahl guter Freunde, sowie Kontakthäufigkeit zu früheren Kollegen approximiert wird. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das Suchverhalten der Arbeitslosen durch das Vorhandensein sozialer Kontakte signifikant beeinflusst wird. Insbesondere sinkt mit der Netzwerkgröße formelle Arbeitssuche - die Substitution ist besonders ausgeprägt für passive formelle Suchmethoden, d.h. Informationsquellen die eher unspezifische Arten von Jobangeboten bei niedrigen relativen Kosten erzeugen. Im Einklang mit den Vorhersagen des theoretischen Modells finden sich auch deutlich positive Auswirkungen einer Erhöhung der Netzwerkgröße auf den Reservationslohn. Kapitel 2 befasst sich mit den Arbeitsmarkteffekten von Vermittlungsangeboten (VI) in der frühzeitigen Aktivierungsphase von Arbeitslosen. Die Nutzung von VI könnte dabei eine „doppelte Dividende“ versprechen. Zum einen reduziert die frühe Aktivierung die Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit, und somit auch die Notwendigkeit späterer Teilnahme in Arbeitsmarktprogrammen (ALMP). Zum anderen ist die Aktivierung durch Information mit geringeren locking-in‘‘ Effekten verbunden als die Teilnahme in ALMP. Ziel der Analyse ist es, die Effekte von frühen VI auf die Eingliederungsgeschwindigkeit, sowie die Teilnahmewahrscheinlichkeit in ALMP zu messen. Zudem werden mögliche Effekte auf die Qualität der Beschäftigung untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass VI die Beschäftigungswahrscheinlichkeit signifikant erhöhen, und dass gleichzeitig die Wahrscheinlichkeit in ALMP teilzunehmen signifikant reduziert wird. Für die meisten betrachteten Subgruppen ergibt sich die langfristige Reduktion der ALMP Teilnahme als Konsequenz der schnelleren Eingliederung. Für einzelne Arbeitsmarktgruppen ergibt sich zudem eine frühe und temporare Reduktion, was darauf hinweist, dass Maßnahmen mit hohen und geringen „locking-in“ Effekten aus Sicht der Sachbearbeiter austauschbar sind, was aus Effizienzgesichtspunkten fragwürdig ist. Es wird ein geringer negativer Effekt auf die wöchentliche Stundenanzahl in der ersten abhängigen Beschäftigung nach Arbeitslosigkeit beobachtet. In Kapitel 3 werden die Langzeiteffekte von ALMP für arbeitslose Jugendliche unter 25 Jahren ermittelt. Die untersuchten ALMP sind ABM-Maßnahmen, Lohnsubventionen, kurz-und langfristige Maßnahmen der beruflichen Bildung sowie Maßnahmen zur Förderung der Teilnahme an Berufsausbildung. Ab Eintritt in die Maßnahme werden Teilnehmer und Nicht-Teilnehmer für einen Zeitraum von sechs Jahren beobachtet. Als Zielvariable wird die Wahrscheinlichkeit regulärer Beschäftigung, sowie die Teilnahme in Ausbildung untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass alle Programme, bis auf ABM, positive und langfristige Effekte auf die Beschäftigungswahrscheinlichkeit von Jugendlichen haben. Kurzfristig finden wir jedoch nur für kurze Trainingsmaßnahmen positive Effekte, da lange Trainingsmaßnahmen und Lohnzuschüsse mit signifikanten locking-in‘‘ Effekten verbunden sind. Maßnahmen zur Förderung der Berufsausbildung erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Teilnahme an einer Ausbildung, während alle anderen Programme keinen oder einen negativen Effekt auf die Ausbildungsteilnahme haben. Jugendliche mit höherem Ausbildungsniveau profitieren stärker von der Programmteilnahme. Jedoch zeigen sich für längerfristige Lohnsubventionen ebenfalls starke positive Effekte für Jugendliche mit geringer Vorbildung. Der relative Nutzen von Trainingsmaßnahmen ist höher in West- als in Ostdeutschland. In den Evaluationsstudien der Kapitel 2 und 3 werden die semi-parametrischen Gewichtungsverfahren Propensity Score Matching (PSM) und Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) verwendet, um den Einfluss verzerrender Faktoren, die sowohl die Maßnahmenteilnahme als auch die Zielvariablen beeinflussen zu beseitigen, und kausale Effekte der Programmteilahme zu ermitteln. Während PSM and IPW intuitiv und methodisch sehr attraktiv sind, stellt die Implementierung der Methoden in der Praxis jedoch oft eine große Herausforderung dar. Das Ziel von Kapitel 4 ist es daher, praktische Hinweise zur Implementierung dieser Methoden zu geben. Zu diesem Zweck werden neue Erkenntnisse der empirischen und statistischen Literatur zusammengefasst und praxisbezogene Richtlinien für die angewandte Forschung abgeleitet. Basierend auf einer theoretischen Motivation und einer Skizzierung der praktischen Implementierungsschritte von PSM und IPW werden diese Schritte chronologisch dargestellt, wobei auch auf praxisrelevante Erkenntnisse aus der methodischen Forschung eingegangen wird. Im Anschluss werden die Themen Effektschätzung, Inferenz, Sensitivitätsanalyse und die Kombination von IPW und PSM mit anderen statistischen Methoden diskutiert. Abschließend werden neue Erweiterungen der Methodik aufgeführt.

La crescente attenzione riguardo l’interconnessione tra agricoltura e aspetti ambientali così come la crescita di volatilità dei prezzi dei prodotti agricoli ha posto una nuova enfasi sull’introduzione di misure ambientali nella politiche agricole e sulla ricerca di nuovi strumenti di stabilizzazione del reddito degli agricoltori. La ricerca di questa tesi di dottorato si inserisce in questo contesto e analizza i contratti agro-ambientali, misure della Politica Agricola Comunitaria (PAC) in Unione Europea (UE), sotto una duplice prospettiva. Il primo lavoro di ricerca consiste in un’analisi degli effetti dell’adesione a tali contratti sulle scelte produttive e sulle perfomance economiche degli agricoltori in cinque Paesi dell’UE. I risultati indicano un’eterogeneità di questi effetti: in alcuni Paesi i contratti agro-ambientali sembrano essere più efficaci nel promuovere pratiche agricole sostenibili, così come in alcuni Paesi il pagamento compensativo agro-ambientale sembra non essere sufficiente a compensare la perdita di reddito dei partecipanti. Questo studio è stato condotto combinando il Propensity Score Matching con lo stimatore Difference-in-Differences. Il secondo lavoro di ricerca sviluppa una nuova proposta metodologica che incorpora il rischio in un framework di Programmazione Matematica Positiva (PMP). Il modello elaborato presenta caratteri innovativi rispetto alla letteratura sull’argomento e permette di stimare simultaneamente i prezzi ombra delle risorse, la funzione di costo non lineare dell’azienda agricola e un coefficiente di avversione al rischio specifico per ciascuna azienda. Il modello è stato applicato a tre campioni di aziende e i risultati delle stime testano la calibrazione del modello e indicano valori del coefficiente di avversione al rischio coerenti con la letteratura. Infine il modello è stato impiegato nella simulazione di diversi scenari al fine di verificare il ruolo potenziale di un contratto agro-ambientale come strumento di gestione del rischio a diversi livelli di volatilità dei prezzi agricoli. / The increasing attention to the relationship between agriculture and the environment and the rise in price volatility on agricultural markets has led to a new emphasis on agri-environmental policies as well as to a search for new risk management strategies for the farmer. The research objective of this PhD thesis is in line with this challenging context, since it provides an analysis of the EU agri-environmental schemes (AESs) from two viewpoints. First, an ex-post analysis aims at investigating the AESs for their traditional role as measures which encourage sustainable farming while compensating the farmer for the income foregone in five EU Member States. The effects of AESs participation on farmer’s production plans and economic performances differs widely across Member States and in some of them the environmental payment is not enough to compensate the income foregone of participants. This study has been performed by applying a semi-parametric technique which combines a Difference-in-Differences estimator with a Propensity Score Matching estimator. The second piece of research develops a new methodological proposal to incorporate risk into a farm level Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model. The model presents some innovations with respect to the previous literature and estimates simultaneously the resource shadow prices, the farm non-linear cost function and a farm-specific coefficient of absolute risk aversion. The proposed model has been applied to three farm samples and the estimation results confirm the calibration ability of the model and show values for risk aversion coefficients consistent with the literature. Finally different scenarios have been simulated to test the potential role of an AES as risk management tool under different scenarios of crop price volatility.

Submitted by isabela.moljf@hotmail.com (isabela.moljf@hotmail.com) on 2016-08-10T12:20:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 luiscarlosfalcaocorreia.pdf: 1354537 bytes, checksum: 9923b5e459d1530ba2234ee5be8348b0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-08-10T13:03:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 luiscarlosfalcaocorreia.pdf: 1354537 bytes, checksum: 9923b5e459d1530ba2234ee5be8348b0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T13:03:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 luiscarlosfalcaocorreia.pdf: 1354537 bytes, checksum: 9923b5e459d1530ba2234ee5be8348b0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-10 / O objetivo desta dissertação é compreender os efeitos do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) sobre o mercado de trabalho de seus beneficiários e analisar alguns de seus possíveis efeitos adversos. O PBF é uma transferência de renda destinada às famílias de baixa renda com o intuito de aliviar a condição de pobreza extrema e gerar capital humano por meio das condicionalidades. Utilizou-se nas análises um painel longitudinal de dados provenientes das duas rodadas da Pesquisas de Avaliação de Impacto do Programa Bolsa Família (AIBF I e II, conduzidas nos anos de 2005 e 2009, respectivamente) realizada por contratação do Ministério de Desenvolvimento Social e Combate à Fome (MDS). A metodologia empregada teve como base o método das diferenças em diferenças concomitante ao pareamento por escore de propensão. Os resultados empíricos obtidos ajudam a refutar a hipótese do “efeito preguiça”, demonstram um incentivo à sub-declaração da renda dos beneficiários; um aumento da informalidade laboral e um desincentivo à procura por trabalho dos indivíduos beneficiários. / The aim of this dissertation is to understand the effects of the Bolsa Familia Programme (PBF) over the labor market of its beneficiaries and analyze its likely adverse effects. The PBF is a conditional cash transfer designated to low income household in order to alleviate extreme poverty and generate human capital through its conditionalities. It was used a longitudinal panel data made of first and second PBF impact evaluation surveys (held in 2005 and 2009, respectively) performed by hiring of the Ministry of Social Development and Fight against Hunger (MDS). The methodology applied was the difference in differences combined with the propensity score matching. The empirical results obtained, help to disprove the hypothesis of "laziness effect", demonstrate an incentive to under-reporting of income of the beneficiaries; an increase in labor informality and a disincentive to looking for new jobs for the beneficiary individuals.

Submitted by Caroline Xavier (caroline.xavier@pucrs.br) on 2017-08-07T13:36:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_OTAVIO_CANOZZI_CONCEICAO_COMPLETO.pdf: 1480241 bytes, checksum: 6c742bea6a2e5e1360c0f6751123d488 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-07T13:36:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_OTAVIO_CANOZZI_CONCEICAO_COMPLETO.pdf: 1480241 bytes, checksum: 6c742bea6a2e5e1360c0f6751123d488 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-23 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / The present dissertation evaluates the Science without Borders program focusing on three outcome variables. To achieve this goal, the work is divided into two essays. The first essay addresses the causal impact of the program on the performance of CsF alumni from the 2013 National Student Performance Exam (ENADE) microdata. The results are compared with two control groups: the first composed by students who also made international academic mobility, but through other initiatives and the second by the non-exchange students. The strategy of comparing the CsF?s alumni with the exchange students aims to mitigate the problems of self-selection, because we can expect more similar characteristics between these groups, both with regard to motivation to study abroad and observable characteristics. The methodology used was the Propensity Score Matching (PSM), using different pairing algorithms to check the validity of the findings. The results show that the alumni of the program present better grades than the exchange students, both in the general formation part and in the specific component of the ENADE exam. The second essay examines dropout and completion rates in the CsF students? course from the microdata of the Higher Education Census of 2014 and 2015. For this purpose, a panel of students was constructed, divided into the same groups of the first essay, which allowed to identify their trajectories in the course. The methodology used involved two techniques: a multinomial logit and the Markov transition matrices. The evidence found shows that CsF students evades more the course and conclude it at lower rates in the expected time, according to the serial grade of the course, than both comparison groups. The results of the multinomial logit model, controlling characteristics of individuals, institutions, courses and regions, suggest that the program has a ceteris paribus effect on the extension of student time in the university. / A presente disserta??o avalia o programa Ci?ncia Sem Fronteiras (CsF) com foco em tr?s vari?veis de resultado. Para atingir esse objetivo, o trabalho est? dividido em dois ensaios. O primeiro ensaio trata do impacto causal do programa sobre o desempenho dos ex-bolsistas do CsF a partir dos microdados do Exame Nacional de Desempenho dos Estudantes (ENADE) de 2013. Os resultados s?o analisados comparativamente a dois grupos de controle: o primeiro composto por estudantes que tamb?m realizaram interc?mbio acad?mico internacional, por?m por interm?dio de outras iniciativas e o segundo por n?o intercambistas. A estrat?gia de compar?-los com os intercambistas visa mitigar os problemas de autossele??o, porque se espera caracter?sticas mais semelhantes entre esses grupos, tanto no que tange ? motiva??o para estudar no exterior quanto em caracter?sticas observ?veis. A metodologia empregada foi o Propensity Score Matching (PSM), sendo utilizados diferentes algoritmos de pareamento para conferir validade aos achados. Os resultados revelam que os ex-bolsistas do programa apresentam melhores notas que os intercambistas, tanto na parte de forma??o geral quanto no componente espec?fico da prova do ENADE. O segundo ensaio analisa a evas?o e a taxa de conclus?o no curso de alunos do CsF a partir dos microdados do Censo da Educa??o Superior de 2014 e 2015. Para tanto, construiu-se um painel de estudantes, divididos de acordo com os mesmos grupos do primeiro ensaio, que permitiu identificar suas trajet?rias no curso. A metodologia utilizada envolveu duas t?cnicas: um logit multinomial e as matrizes de transi??o de Markov. As evid?ncias encontradas mostram que os alunos do CsF trancam mais o curso e se formam a menores taxas no tempo esperado, de acordo com a grade seriada do curso, do que ambos os grupos de compara??o. Os resultados do modelo logit multinomial, controlando caracter?sticas dos indiv?duos, das institui??es, cursos e regi?es, sugerem que o programa tem um efeito ceteris paribus sobre a prorroga??o do tempo do aluno na universidade.

This thesis consists of three essays that examine issues on university attendance behavior, factorsof university completion, and the labor market value of a university diploma in Sweden. Essay [I] analyzes how the rapid expansion of higher education that increased the geographicalaccessibility to higher education in the 1990s affected university enrollment decisions amongvarious socioeconomic groups of young adults in Sweden. The empirical findings show that theprobability of enrollment in university education increases with accessibility to universityeducation. The results also indicate that accessibility adds to the likelihood of attending auniversity within the region of residence. Access to higher education more locally seems to havedecreased the social distance to higher education, meaning that the option of attending highereducation, as compared to entering the local labor market after upper secondary school, hasbecome a more common and a more natural alternative for more socioeconomic groups insociety. Essay [II] compares the performance of students in universities built before and after the largedecentralization and expansion of the higher educational system in Sweden, starting in the late1970s. Two outcome measures are used: (i) whether or not the student has obtained a degreewithin seven years after she initiated her studies; and (ii) whether or not she obtained 120 creditpoints (the requirement for most undergraduate degrees) within seven years. Controlling forseveral background variables as well as GPA scores in a binomial probit model, we show thatstudents at old universities are about 5 percentage points more likely to get a degree and about 9percentage points more likely to obtain 120 credit points. However, in an extended bivariatemodel where we consider selection on unobservables into university type, we cannot reject thepossibility of no difference in performance between the two university types. Essay [III] analyzes the labor market value of a university diploma (sheepskin) in Sweden. Incontrast to previous studies, this study only focuses on Swedish university students who havethree years of full time university education or more − where some have obtained a universitydegree, others not. The results show that for male students, the wage premium of possessing adegree, i.e. the sheepskin effect, is roughly 5-8 percent. For women, it is about 6-7 percent forthose who have completed four years of fulltime or more. For students who attended a moreprestigious university in the metropolitan areas in Sweden and majored in the natural sciences, asheepskin effect of roughly 13 percent for men and 22 percent for women is traced. However,this result did not hold among students who attended. Keywords: Higher education, university enrollment; university choice; accessibility; universitycompletion; selection bias; propensity score matching, sheepskin, human capital.

Questo lavoro analizza le determinanti dell’abbandono scolastico nel settore della Further Education in Inghilterra. In particolare, il primo capitolo descrive i modelli teorici per l’analisi dell’abbandono scolastico e fornisce una revisione della letteratura sulle principali determinanti dell’abbandono scolastico. Il secondo capitolo si concentra sugli effetti della dimensione delle scuole e delle aree di insegnamento sulla probabilita’ di abbandono parziale e totale. Introduce il concetto di abbandono parziale, dimostrando che gli studenti che hanno abbandonato lo studio di alcune ma non tutte le materie a cui si erano iscritti reagiscono a cambiamenti nella dimensione delle scuole e delle aree di insegnamento in maniera simile agli studenti che abbandonano completamente gli studi. Il terzo capitolo analizza l’effetto causale dell’iscrizione a istituzioni di Further Education che sono state recentemente fuse sulla probabilita’ di non completare gli studi. Utilizziamo la tecnica del propensity score matching e controlliamo la qualita’ del matching e la sensibilita’ delle stime al fallimento dell’assunzione di unconfoundedness. I nostri risultati dimostrano che iscriversi ad una scuola oggetto di fusione riduce la probabilita’ di abbandonale gli studi. / This work analyses the determinants of dropout behavior in the Further Education sector in England. More specifically, the first chapter describe the theoretical framework for the analysis of student withdrawal and provides a review of the literature on the main determinants of dropout behavior. The second chapter focuses on the effect of college and programme area size on the probability of dropping out both partially and completely. It introduces the concept of partial dropout showing that students that dropped out of some modules but not all the ones they were enrolled on react to changes in college and programme area size similarly to the ones that dropped out completely. The third chapter analyses the causal effect of enrolling in a recently merged Further Education college on the probability of dropping out. We employ the propensity score matching approach and check the quality of our matching and the sensitivity of the estimates to the failure of the unconfoundedness assumption. Our findings show that enrolling in a merged college reduces the probability of dropping out.