This dissertation thesis focuses on complex analysis of the problem, which is the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area. The aim of this paper is to provide a complex overview and analysis of the current sovereign debt crisis, from the theoretical definition of the term, through an analysis of the causes and consequences of this crisis to outline the economic policy response to it. The text is divided into two parts. The first part deals with theoretical problem solving. In the second part is analyzed and described course of sovereign debt crisis. This section also analyzes in detail causes and consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in certain countries. This section is completed by an analysis of economic policy response to the sovereign debt crisis and an expert estimate of the future development of public debt countries analyzed.

The thesis aims to analyze the development of relevant debt indicators, i.e. state budget deficit, public debt, government deficit and debt, but also debt and the deficit of the public health insurance. The management of public health insurance in the Czech Republic is analyzed as well. Last but not least, the goal is to find also the most important factors affecting the growth of debt indicators of public health insurance and determine the possible consequences of the deficit of the public health insurance. The theoretical part consists of three chapters. The first chapter concerns the general public finances and financial imbalances. Here is particularly important the subchapter about the budget system. The second chapter deals with the debt indicators, namely public debt and its affiliates, as well as budget deficits and specific deficits. All of these debt ratios are then analyzed in the analytical part of this thesis. The last chapter relates to public health insurance. Analytical part is divided into two major chapters. The first chapter analyzes the development of the state budget, public debt, government deficit and government debt in the Czech Republic. The entire analysis is divided into two periods, namely 1993 to 2003 and 2004 to 2014. This section contains the definition of the most important causes of development. The second part is devoted to the analysis of public health insurance, namely its evolution, current state, but also the development of debt indicators of public health insurance, which are analyzed again within the Czech Republic in two seasons. At the conclusion of this chapter are defined the most important factors influencing the evolution of debt indicators of public health insurance and the impact of a possible deficit of the public health insurance.

The introduction of euro in 2002 was considered to be a risky "experiment. Even before its actual existence, many economists have doubted the success of the Economic Monetary Union (EMU) emphasizing the potential costs of such a bold action. The traditional Optimum Currency Area by Mundell (1961), Mc Kinnon (1963) and Kenen (1969) has pointed out the loss of the exchange-rate mechanism and the structural differences among the member states as the main sources of costs within a monetary union. Ten years after the circulation of euro, the ongoing Greek debt crisis has revealed the imperfections of the EMU. Greece has become the "black sheep" of the union, having accumulated unsustainable levels of public debt and deficits that could pose a threat for the future of the Eurozone. It is widely believed that the profligate fiscal policies of the Greek government and the domestic flaws of the Greek economy have played an importan role on the country's debt crisis. However, the impact of Greece's accession to the EMU on the current crisis is still a moot question.

This thesis deals with the effects of the financial crisis on the state budget of the Czech Republic in 2008 - 2013. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on revenues, expenditures and budget deficit and public debt of the Czech Republic within the selected period, in the context of measures taken by the government. The theoretical part of the thesis includes the definition of "financial crisis", the main causes of the global financial crisis, including the mechanism by which the crisis has grown into a global extent. The practical part of the thesis deals with the analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on the state budget of the Czech Republic in 2008 - 2013. In conclusion, problem areas are identified and the recommendations are formulated.

This thesis deals with issues of the public debt of Czech Republic. The aim of this thesis is to find the causes that contribute to adverse developments affecting fiscal imbalances. The set target based on the fundamental hypothesis that the current state of public debt is not due only to economic deficit. The hypothesis is confirmed by the finding that public debt is mainly due to the accumulation of annual budget shortfall, which were formed even in times of economic growth. The theoretical part deals with structure, methodology and opportunities in funding fiscal imbalances. The practical section assesses the development of key entries of public finances in years 2000 to 2012, when Czech economy went through a period of expansion followed by a period of recession. Own contribution of this work lies in trend analysis examined quantities in relation to GDP and the subsequent assessment of urgency of their development. Conclusion of the practical part is dedicated to the key issues that emerged from previous analyzes and proposes possible measures to tackle them.

The thesis analyses problems of eurozone after the beginning of financial crisis in 2008, which continuously changed into economic and debt crisis. The thesis considers eurozone in aggregate and closer focuses on so called GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries. Recent eurozone economic situation is compared to Japanese "lost decade" during 1990s, I seek for parallels and differences. Theoretical part shows approaches by economic schools to causes of cycle and to role of policymakers. Main challenges of fiscal and monetary policy are considered, specifically fiscal policy in time of high public indebtedness, monetary policy in liquidity trap etc. Applicative part considers causes of the economic situation at the beginning, more specifically devoted to balance sheets recession. Key part of the practical part it is analysis of applied fiscal and monetary policy, including helping efforts to financial system. Concluding remarks summarizes key understanding from the thesis, proposals are included and it is considered whether eurozone is going to follow Japanese path since 90's or not. It seems highly probable that eurozone is going to follow Japanese in terms of sluggish economic growth, parallels can be seen in weak impact of monetary policy in liquidity trap, but recommendations to fiscal policy from Japanese experience should be taken into account in very cautious way because of both specifics of eurozone and Japanese economy.

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la comptabilisation de la dette publique sous trois angles distincts et complémentaires. Tout d’abord, nous étudions les normes de comptabilité des retraites publiques. Nous développons une grille théorique d’analyse comparée et diachronique s’appuyant sur un examen des pratiques existantes. Notre analyse met en évidence que les dispositifs existant en Europe sont incompatibles avec le modèle d’épargne individuelle tel que promu par la norme IPSAS 25. Ensuite, nous analysons la relation entre comptabilité de la dette et milieu politique, et en particulier l’hypothèse d’une sous-estimation de la dette en période d’élection. Notre analyse des révisions comptables permet de valider cette hypothèse et indique que les pays en développement sont les plus affectés par cette sous-estimation. Enfin, nous analysons l’impact du caractère sollicité ou non d'une notation sur celle-ci, ainsi que sur l’évaluation de la dette publique par les agences de notation. Notre analyse de Moody’s, Fitch, et S&P indique que les agences favorisent les pays qui sollicitent leur notation par rapport à ceux qui ne la sollicitent pas. / This thesis deals with the accounting of public debt from three distinct and complementary analytical perspectives. First, we study the accounting standards for retirement obligations. We develop a theoretical evaluation grid using a comparative and diachronic analysis based on the review of existing practices. Our analysis highlights that the existing pension schemes in Europe are incompatible with the individual savings model as promoted by the IPSAS 25 norm. Second, we analyze the relationship between debt accounting and the political environment, and test the hypothesis of an underestimation of debt levels around elections. Results allow us to validate our hypothesis and indicate that developing countries are most affected by this underestimation. Third, we examine the impact of the solicitation status of a sovereign rating on the rating itself and on the public debt level assigned by rating agencies. Focusing on Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P, our findings indicate that agencies favor countries soliciting their rating comparing to those who do not solicit them.

Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit dem Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen, der 2010 in Deutschland etabliert wurde und nur wenige Jahre später, im Zusammenhang mit massiven Anleiheausfällen, zusammengebrochen ist. Ziel der Arbeit ist es zu analysieren, welche Faktoren zum Zusammenbruch des Marktes beigetragen haben könnten, um besser zu verstehen, wie mittelständischen Unternehmen der Zugang zum Kapitalmarkt erleichtert werden kann. Das erste Kapitel analysiert die Entscheidung, sich am Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen zu finanzieren. Verschiedene Theorien versuchen zu erklären, welche Unternehmen sich vorrangig über Banken und welche sich am Kapitalmarkt finanzieren. Entgegen der Theorie haben sich vorwiegend Unternehmen mit schlechterer Kreditwürdigkeit am Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen finanziert. Das zweite Kapitel untersucht, ob der Zugang zum Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen finanzielle Beschränkungen aufheben und so Investitionen anstoßen konnte. Eine alternative Motivation könnte jedoch auch sein, dass Unternehmen sich Geld von gutgläubigen Privatinvestoren geliehen haben, um die Insolvenz zu verschleppen. Emittenten von Mittelstandsanleihen waren zwar finanziell eingeschränkt, investierten jedoch weniger als erwartet. Eine große Anzahl der Emittenten wäre ohne die Mittelstandsanleihe bereits im Jahr der Emission zahlungsunfähig gewesen. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht vor dem Hintergrund der massiven Zahlungsausfälle, ob Investoren in der Lage waren, Unternehmen mit hohem Risiko von solchem mit niedrigerem Risiko zu unterscheiden. Erschwert wurde die korrekte Einschätzung der Risiken durch eine starke Präsenz von Privatinvestoren sowie einer Inflation der Anleiheratings. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Investoren nicht in der Lage waren, riskante von weniger riskanten Mittelstandsanleihen zu unterscheiden. Dies könnte zum Zusammenbruch des Marktes beigetragen haben, da dieser für hochqualitative Unternehmen letztendlich zu teuer war. / This dissertation explores the German market for SME bonds that was established in 2010 and collapsed soon after, when one third of the listed bonds defaulted. The first paper studies the choice to enter the German MBond market. The results show that MBond issuers in contrast to theoretical predictions and prior empirical findings, have lower credit quality. The second paper examines to the extent to which the main goal of the MBond market, alleviating nancial constraints in order to spur firm investment, has been achieved. Indeed, a major fraction of MBond issuers have been finnancially constrained in the year prior to issuance. However, MBond issuers appear to invest less than expected. The results are more in favor of the alternative explanation that MBond issuers timed the market and exploited a window of opportunity to issue junk bonds to retail investors, in order to nance future losses and avoid or postpone bankruptcy. In the light of the high default rate and the final collapse of the market, the third paper analyzes whether investors were able to distinguish between high and low risk MBonds. Rating in ation in the MBond market could have distorted the information channel, hampering investors' risk assessment of the MBonds. The results indicate that di erences in default risk were not adequately reflected in MBond yield spreads. Thus, it appears that MBond investors were not able to distinguish between high and low quality issuers. As a consequence, the MBond market was relatively more expensive for high quality issuers than it was for their low quality counterparts, which may have contributed to the near-total collapse of the market.

Esta tesis esta compuesta por tres capítulos. Los dos primeros capítulos estudian los efectos macroeconómicos de una consolidación fiscal y estímulos fiscales cuando la deuda privada es elevada. El tercer capítulo, estudia proyecciones de deuda púbica para el caso español bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. En el primer capítulo se analiza los efectos macroeconómicos de diferentes planes de consolidación fiscal en los que el gobierno reduce de forma gradual la ratio deuda pública-PIB y el sector privado está altamente endeudado. Lo resultados muestran que en el largo plazo, la consolidación fiscal genera beneficios en términos de output que son mayores en el caso en el que el sector público este altamente endeudado. En el corto plazo, la efectividad de la política fiscal en un escenario de deuda alta, depende del instrumento fiscal utilizado. Finalmente se analiza el bienestar social, encontrando que la política de consolidación fiscal produce una ganancia en términos de bienestar cuando el gasto público o el impuesto al consumo se utilizan como instrumento y este bienestar es mayor en el caso de endeudamiento privado alto. Sin embargo, cuando el instrumento fiscal son los impuestos al trabajo o al capital, se produce una pérdida de bienestar que es amplificada en un escenario de endeudamiento alto. En el segundo capítulo, se estudia como el tamaño de los multiplicadores fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento privado. Este artículo contribuye al debate de los efectos de los estímulos fiscales demostrando que el impacto de las políticas fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento, considerando el endeudamiento de los hogares y empresas. Finalmente, en el tercer capítulo se examina las proyecciones de deuda para la economía española bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. Se encuentra que la deuda aumentará hasta un 174% en 2035 si se cumple el escenario macroeconómico que predice la Comisión Europea. En el caso de considerar una subida de impuestos, la deuda disminuye pero lejos de llegar a los niveles pre-COVID.

The thesis contains four essays, covering topics in the field of real-time macroeconometrics, forecasting and applied macroeconomics. In the first two chapters, I use recent techniques developed in the "nowcasting" literature in order to analyse and interpret the macroeconomic news flow. I use them either to assess current macroeconomic conditions, showing the importance of foreign indicators dealing with small open economies, or linking macroeconomic news to asset prices, through a model that help us interpret macroeconomic data and explaining the linkages between macro variables and financial indicators. In the third chapter, I analyse the link between macroeconomic data in real-time and the yield curve of interest rates, constructing a forecasting model which takes into account the peculiar characteristics of the macroeconomic data flow. In the last chapter, I present a Bayesian Vector Autoregression model built in order to analyse the last two crisis in the Eurozone (2008-09, and 2011-12) identifying their unique characteristics with respect to historical regularities, an issue of great importance from a policy perspective. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished